THE HERD - Hour 1 - Major concerns about Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy looked great when it mattered most

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: THE HERD - Hour 1 - Major concerns about Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy looked great when it mattered most

Date: September 9, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Colin Cowherd and Jason McIntyre break down the first week's major NFL storylines, focusing on the contrasting performances of rookie quarterbacks Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings). They discuss concerns about Williams’ performance, McCarthy’s dramatic turnaround, the significance of coaching and game planning, and rapid-fire reactions to other NFL storylines. The conversation is lively, analytical, and candid, with emphasis on the importance of “believing in oneself,” coaching adjustments, and how teams react to adversity and early season trends.

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Main Discussion Points

1. Quarterback Controversy: Caleb Williams vs. J.J. McCarthy

• Caleb Williams (Bears): Major concerns about his off-script play, mental composure, and accuracy, especially as the game progresses and pressure mounts.
• J.J. McCarthy (Vikings): Erratic and hesitant for most of the game, but transformed in the fourth quarter into a decisive, accurate, and energetic leader who helped secure a comeback win.

Key Insights:

• Williams looks fantastic when everything goes as planned ("on-script") but unravels under pressure.
• McCarthy, meanwhile, demonstrated rare resilience, delivering when it counted despite earlier struggles, drawing comparisons to Baker Mayfield in terms of emotional, momentum-driven play.

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2. Coaching and Execution

• Ben Johnson (Bears OC) faced visible frustration with Williams’ inconsistency and team penalties, emphasizing that talent alone isn’t enough for success in the NFL ([06:18]).
• Brian Flores (Vikings DC) was credited as "the best defensive coordinator in football" and instrumental in rattling Williams and forcing errors ([06:38]).
• Kevin O’Connell (Vikings HC) received praise for instilling confidence in McCarthy, reflected by the quarterback’s body language and performance reboot late in the game.

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3. Game Analysis & Turning Points

• Williams’ Performance:
  • Opened strong (first drive: 6/6, 102 passer rating) but faltered when forced to improvise.
  • Bears committed 12 penalties (8 on offense), repeatedly setting themselves back.
• McCarthy’s Turnaround:
  • Poor through three quarters (34 passer rating), but after a “pick six” and a crucial fourth-quarter completion to Justin Jefferson, he became “a different quarterback” ([09:18]).
  • Final passer rating: 98; Vikings overcame six fewer first downs and poor third-down stats.

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4. Broader NFL Context

• Week 1 Surprises: The hosts discuss surprise performances (e.g., Lions’ offensive woes, Ravens’ blown leads, Miami’s collapse against the Colts), urging caution not to overreact to Week 1 results.
• Importance of Coordinators: A recurring theme—great coordinators are game-changers and elevate talent beyond its raw potential.
• Division Picture: Early takes on NFC North hierarchy, with Green Bay and Minnesota favored over Chicago and Detroit ([15:01]).

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5. Quarterback Development & NFL Realities

• The panel recognizes the volatility of rookie/QB performances and the impact of coaching. Young QBs like Williams, McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Drake May are contrasted with established, consistent starters.
• Notable Analytic: Williams’ expected completion percentage was -13% (should have completed far more passes based on open looks), underscoring a worrying inconsistency ([22:20]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Caleb Williams:

  "The further the Bears’ Caleb Williams got off script, the worse it got…off script, hero ball, panicking, lack of accuracy—all the things scouts said they were concerned about."
  — Jason McIntyre ([05:03])

  "He does too many things that losing quarterbacks do—the false starts, panicking with pressure, off-script accuracy dipping."
  — Colin Cowherd ([06:55])

• On J.J. McCarthy:

  "There was a moment for JJ McCarthy in the fourth where he just hit Justin Jefferson with a seed, and this play right here unleashed something…the next three drives, it was a different J.J. McCarthy."
  — Colin Cowherd ([09:18])

  "For him to make some of the plays he did, I told him at halftime, you are going to bring us back to win this game…that doesn’t get done without him in the second half."
  — Kevin O’Connell, via Cowherd ([11:37])

• On Coaching & Development:

  "Nobody is going to believe in you in life until you believe in yourself. You watched [McCarthy’s] body language change."
  — Colin Cowherd ([10:44])

• On NFL Realities:

  "There’s a million talented lounge singers working at bad saloons. They’re not coachable. They aren’t consistent. The NFL is so much more than just arm talent."
  — Colin Cowherd ([06:24])

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• [04:17] Praise for McCarthy’s fourth quarter; context on his struggles and turnaround
• [05:03] Detailed breakdown of Williams’ and McCarthy’s stat lines and what they reveal
• [06:18] Critique of Caleb Williams’ development and comparison to Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, and Justin Fields
• [09:18] Turning point for McCarthy; "unleashed" after key completion to Jefferson
• [11:37] Kevin O’Connell’s belief in McCarthy and the team’s reaction
• [14:07] Additional context: injuries, McCarthy’s youth, and adversity faced by Vikings
• [15:01] NFC North hierarchy and importance of defensive coordinators
• [22:20] Deep dive on Williams’ expected completion percentage and concern for Bears fans
• [41:32] Silver lining for Bears fans — toughest defensive opponent now behind them
• [47:27] Discussion of 49ers injury situation and analysis of team depth

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Additional Highlights

• The crew debates how one week should not define a season, but acknowledges that major patterns and coaching impact are “real and meaningful.”
• A consistent thread is the impact of head coaches and coordinators—losing key staff (like Detroit’s Ben Johnson) has visible, immediate consequences.
• Ongoing theme: what separates promising quarterbacks from sustained NFL success is more about consistency, coachability, and avoiding mistakes than raw talent.

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Final Takeaways & Tone

Cowherd and McIntyre deliver sharp, opinion-driven analysis, peppered with analogies (lounge singers, emotional momentum, etc.), and challenge fans not to accept shallow optimism. While bearing down on weaknesses, they share optimism about strong organizations, smart coaching hires, and the developmental path for young passers. The episode is delivered with frankness, wit, and a sense of urgency befitting NFL Week 1 overreactions—yet always with an eye on bigger trends.

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For listeners who missed the episode:
This hour provided a deep, nuanced look at young QBs, the outsized impact of coaching, and how week-to-week NFL results should inform but not wholly define expectations. The McCarthy comeback and Williams struggles stand out as the microcosm of QB growth, while broader league storylines reinforce that consistency, leadership, and organization matter most.

Transcript

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Jason McIntyre]

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[Jason McIntyre]

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[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah, winning time. McCarthy delivers, Baby.

[Jason McIntyre]

All right, so I don't start my show with statistics very often, but I thought this was very interesting and it serves a point. So in the first drive, Caleb Williams is 6 for 6 with 102 passer rating. The rest of the game, he completed 50% and a passer rating in the 70s. That's a backup in the NFL. J.J. mcCarthy in the first three quarters, unwatchable, a 34 passer rating. Look terrified in the fourth quarter. Six of eight, one hundred and one passer rating. My takeaway, the further the Bears Caleb Williams got off script, the worse it got. The more J.J. mcCarthy could play loose, intuitive football, the better it got. So don't be afraid to have a strong opinion after one game. Caleb on script, velocity, horsepower, he can move on script, look comfortable and daring and good. But that opening drive in the third quarter, you could watch Ben Johnson, who was visibly frustrated with his lack of accuracy. There were also four false starts, 12 total Chicago penalties, eight on the offense, so. And he was missing badly with open receivers. So, I mean, I think he's talented enough to beat bad teams and mediocre coordinators, but that's not his division. And he was one in five against his division last year. The only win when the packers rested starters. So there. You can't watch that game and not be a little unsettled. Off script. It looks like usc. Caleb Williams, wow, he's talented. And so was Cam Newton. And in 11 seasons, Cam Newton had three winning seasons. Because Cam was all over the map and too often relied on talent. His mechanics eroded, his accuracy regressed. It was hit and miss. And that was the knock on Caleb coming in. He had all sorts of talent, but there's a million talented lounge singers working at bad saloons. They're not coachable. They don't manage themselves well. You know, they, they, you know, they aren't consistent. The NFL is so much more than just arm talent. Jay Cutler had a great arm. Justin Fields, finally, as a passing game coordinator he likes in New York. You saw what he did. I also thought Caleb panicked when the first and second receiver weren't there. Now, again, Brian Flores, in my opinion, I have said this for like a year, is the best defensive coordinator in football, in my opinion. I think the staff of Minnesota this year, the athletic did a piece. It ranked San Francisco second best overall staff, Minnesota number one. So you may not face a coaching staff this good. Green Bay's is pretty good the rest of the season, but Caleb does too many things that losing quarterbacks do. The false starts. Now it's first and 15 or it's second and 12. He panics with pressure. His, his off script. His accuracy dips when he's moving. And he had an extra year ahead of J.J. mcCarthy. J.J. mcCarthy just hasn't played in a couple years. I mean, he didn't even play in the preseason much. So I thought when you watch this game, there is a way to win in this league. This is what Belichick talked about with Brady. You can't have penalties, you can't play behind the sticks. You have got to be moving forward. And Ben Johnson's body language, he was frustrated, he was puzzled. He was swearing on the headset. It was just not good enough. You got to give me more than talent. And here was Ben Johnson after we said going into week one that the team that would make the least number of mistakes would win the game. And unfortunately, we were on the wrong side of that. We made too many there late in the game, myself included, 12 penalties. That's. That's got to get cleaned up in a hurry. And yet we've been saying that all training camp as well. So, you know, we'll find a way to get that done. It's going to be a collective effort. No one's pointing fingers. First half, mostly on script. You felt pretty Good about it. The further Caleb got off script. Hero ball, panicking, lack of accuracy, all the things scout said they were concerned about. All right, J.J. mcCarthy. I've never seen a game like that. I've never seen a quarterback do that. So the fact that J.J. mcCarthy ended up with a 98 passer rating after the first three quarters is remarkable. I mean, the Vikings still only finished 3 for 12 on third down and six fewer first downs than the Bears. They were unwatchable offensively for three quarters. But I have found my JJ McCarthy comp. It's Baker Mayfield play at a college power. Tons of emotion, a lot of energy. I wish they were bigger, but all they have to do. Baker and J.J. mcCarthy can go into slumps and get reckless, but if they make one big throw and they gain that confidence, their velocity and their accuracy changes. And he. After that, pick six, which is about as bad as any pick six I've ever seen. I mean, he was. He was bad in the first three quarters, but then there was a moment for JJ McCarthy, and this is very Baker Mayfield. There was a moment. It was in the fourth quarter. He hit Justin Jefferson with a seed. And that this play right here unleashed something. The next three drives, it was a different J.J. mcCarthy. And this is Baker. All Baker needs to step into it. One rope, and Baker changes the ball, comes out faster, more velocity and more accuracy. And again, he's got Kevin O' Connell and Josh McCown. You cannot get better as a quarterback. So what you really saw from JJ McCarthy is an old saying. Nobody is going to believe in you in life until you believe in yourself. And you watched his body language change. He's like Baker. He plays with a ton of emotion. He got a little chip on his shoulder. He wins a lot of football games, but you saw two different quarterbacks. The first three quarters was a coaching staff, and again, he hadn't played much that was protecting him. And they were kind of just waiting for it to happen. I text somebody last night, an NFL exec. He, and I say, what do you. I said, what do you make of this game plan? And he goes in KOC I trust he didn't play much in the preseason. He hasn't played a lot of snaps. They're probably thinking, in Minnesota, let Caleb Williams make mistakes with Brian Flores. Let's just try to stay in the game. He'll make a play later. And he did. And I got to tell you, that was a different quarterback in the fourth quarter. Here is Kevin OConnell after J.J. mcCarthy. For him to make some of the plays he did, I told him at halftime, you are going to bring us back to win this game. And the look in his eye was fantastic. And the best thing is just the belief I felt from the team, the unit. And ultimately that doesn't get done without him in the second half. Two passing touchdowns and then the critical rushing touchdown, you know, at the end. Now it does help. Minnesota's got better ownership, a better front office, a proven coach, a better roster. They were favored in the game. I said all week this was the last blazing 5 pick. I didn't pick, I picked Minnesota. I thought this was one of the games. I just trusted the Minnesota Viking organization, their coaching staff. I think Ben Johnson's a really good coach, but it's just in big games, Caleb Williams has often been worse than the one o' clock window. So Minnesota this morning, J. Mac and I are laughing before the show. What is J.J. mcCarthy? Well, I think he's going to be closer to the fourth quarter than the first three. And again it is. Kevin O' Connell was tall, called the tall Sean McVeigh when he went to Minnesota. And people have talked about if you drafted coaches right now he'd be a top three or a four coach. He can build a culture. He played in the league. Tall, good looking guy with a lot of confidence. Look what he did to Sam Darnold. I don't think JJ McCarthy is gifted enough to get a defensive coach or an average coaching staff and flourish. But there is something about Justin Jefferson, the production. They get their left tackle back soon. They did start to develop a run game, a pretty consistent run game in the second half that also helped field position and confidence. But if you're a Viking fan this morning and a Bears fan, I know that one quarterback outplayed the other for three quarters. But a Viking fan looks at that fourth and says, I absolutely believe we've got our guy for the next decade. I don't think anybody in Chicago, except maybe Caleb Williams is thinking that this morning. I don't know if Ben Johnson's thinking that because the body language with Ben Johnson was disappointment. Even when JJ McCarthy was struggling. I didn't sense that from Kevin O'. Connell. He was just sort of monitoring and watching, understanding the situation. The body language from Ben was these are, these are dialed up to work and you're not hitting them. So J. Mac, one of the, I mean, how good was week one of the NFL?

[Colin Cowherd]

Unbelievable.

[Jason McIntyre]

Every big TV game was unbelievable.

[Colin Cowherd]

Just some more context for McCarthy. So he's only 22 years old very young guy.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yes.

[Colin Cowherd]

No left tackle. Derrisa was out last night.

[Jason McIntyre]

He's in a couple of. I think he's coming back in a couple of weeks.

[Colin Cowherd]

Adam Thielen was just traded for like 5 minutes ago.

[Jason McIntyre]

Had a draw.

[Colin Cowherd]

Brutal drop. You know, Jordan Addison suspended. Like, everything going against him. And you're down on the road at night in Chicago. I thought that was unbelievable what he.

[Jason McIntyre]

Did in the fourth quarter.

[Colin Cowherd]

Not quite. Josh Allen, unbelievable.

[Jason McIntyre]

But, I mean, look at.

[Colin Cowherd]

Pretty impressive.

[Jason McIntyre]

Look at the last two fourth quarters we've seen in the NFL. Baltimore dominates a game. Like, it's not competitive. Dominating a game. The wheels come off. J.J. mcCarthy looked. I mean, if I said, you know, five adjectives to describe it, I mean, they're just. It looked a little intimidated, a little slow, a little hesitant.

[Colin Cowherd]

Pick six was.

[Jason McIntyre]

It was as bad as pick six. He literally threw to a bear in stride. Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Real quick, the division, based on what you saw this week, you don't want to overreact.

[Jason McIntyre]

Green Bay is the best team.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay, who's the second best team?

[Jason McIntyre]

I would say Minnesota, right over Detroit. Oh, I did. I think those coordinators. I think it's a major issue. Go back several years ago. Think how good the roster was for Philly. They hired coordinators that didn't work. Week 10, they were circling the drain. Coordinators. Go look at the Niners defense with Robert Sala. Go look at it last year. People don't understand. These coordinators are game changers.

[Colin Cowherd]

So this week, Chicago visits Detroit, 1pm I believe that's a Fox game, Colin. That is kind of a huge game for Caleb Williams and Detroit. Detroit can't lose that, can they? Can't start owing to. It's over. But Caleb needs it badly, given what happened the final three quarters.

[Jason McIntyre]

Well, well, Minnesota defensively, in my opinion, is better than Detroit. Yes, they were a top five defense last year. I think total defense. I like Minnesota's defense better than Detroit's, which can be a little hit and miss. I do love Branch in the back end.

[Colin Cowherd]

He's good. That's a top five game this week. I know there's a lot of good games. There's good games every week. That's a top five game for me because I don't want to say it's elimination in week two column, but, you know, we've seen this. 02 is a big hole to climb out of.

[Jason McIntyre]

I can't believe how good week one was. I cannot believe how good it was.

[Colin Cowherd]

We were close to, you know, bears 17, six looked like they were about to run away with it. Remember Hawkinson fumbles and I thought that was a legit fumble.

[Jason McIntyre]

I hadn't seen that when it was 17 to 6. My take was if the Bears get one more drive and even if they don't score, it is a field position. Because JJ was playing with no confidence. I'm like, just pin him deep. Make JJ drive 94 yards. We could have a game that's over. I mean, it's just sometimes this league just pulls stuff out of a hat. And between the last two night games, we've seen incredible turnarounds, one by a team and one by a quarterback. Be sure to catch live editions of the Herd, weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific on Fox Sports Radio, FS1 and the iHeartRadio app hey, what's up everybody? It's me, three time Pro Bowler Levar Arrington and I couldn't be more excited to announce a podcast called Up On Game. What is up on Game, you ask? Along with my fellow Pro Bowler TJ Hush Manzada and Super Bowl Champion. Yep, that's right, Plexico Burris. You can only name a show with that type of talent on it. Up on Game. We're going to be sharing our real life experiences loaded with teachable moments. Listen to Up on game with me, Lavar Arrington, TJ Huch, Manzada and Plexico Burris on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast from. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the Wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals and that's where it stands apart from other ad buys. You can target your buyers by job title, industry role, company seniority, skills, company revenue, all the professionals you need to reach in one place. Stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. Start targeting the right professionals only on LinkedIn ads. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com cowherd that's LinkedIn.com cowherd Terms and conditions apply. American Public University is the number one provider of education to our military and veterans in this country. They offer something truly unique, special rates, and grants for the entire family, making education affordable not just for those who serve, but also for their loved ones. If you have a military or veteran family member and are looking for affordable, high quality education, APU is the place for you Visit Apu Apus Edu Military to learn more. That's Apu Apus Edu Military Running a.

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[Jason McIntyre]

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Alcohol by volume varies by product. Green RiverWhiskey.com Please drink responsibly. I think one of the things that's really troubling if you're a Chicago Bears fan is did you see the Detroit Lions offense that Was the number one offense in the NFL? Did you see it against Green Bay? They averaged 3.8 yards play. They could not Move the ball. They could not score a touchdown and Micah Parsons only played 45% of the snaps. So the Lions offense against the packers was abysmal. It's the first time it's been bad in three years. It's the first time they haven't had Ben Johnson. Also, Ben Johnson was able on script to create the Bears scoring a touchdown on the first drive. They didn't do that all of last season. Also, Ben Johnson got Tyson Bagent in the preseason to have a 107 passer rating. Lions, Tyson Bagent, first drive. If there's a struggle here, it's not Ben Johnson. Here's one of the things that would really concern me. I went and looked this morning. Caleb Williams last year and Caleb Williams against the Minnesota Vikings. And again he's got moments. He, he's got that throw to Roma dunze last season, in this season, last season and yesterday, he's the same quarterback, is even. Ben Johnson met his match. His numbers last night are his numbers last year. There was one throw in particular that really would trouble me. It was fourth quarter, 232 left. Now, they scored eventually on this drive, but it wasted 30 seconds. He misses a layup and I mean he misses it by 8 yards. And that's what worries me. There were open receivers. This had a Justin Fields feel to it where you're like, dude, there's people there. They're open. You're not seeing it. And when you do, you're about 55% on getting it there. So there is an analytic, an analytic that is called expected completion percentage. So the passes after everybody watches film that you should complete. I don't buy into all the analytics, but it's an interesting one. Caleb after last night, dead last -13%. So he should have completed at least 13% more of his passes. So Ben Johnson is scheming Jared Goff open. Yeah, Jared Goff and Omar on St. Brown. Should they really lead the number one offense in the NFL? Shouldn't it be like Josh Allen all the time or Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry? I mean, I like Omaron St. Brown, a fourth round pick, and I like Jared Goff. They shouldn't be the NFL's number one offense. They were Tyson Bagent. You ever think Tyson Bagent was going to look that good like he did in preseason? So my takeaway is we've got an elite coach, but for that number to come out, the low tide for the lowest expected completion percentage, that's not good. That's an analytic that people inside the league look at Caleb Williams trying to spin it positively. There was a lot of good there, our communication, you know, I think, I think he was getting the plays in, you know, fast and being able to get out the huddle. You know, we need to be better with that. And I've been able to get up to the line, make checks or whatever the case may be. But, you know, I think, I think it's a, It's a growing process that it's, you know, it's going to keep growing from here. The start, this is the start, but definitely not the. Definitely not the end. Now, in fairness, J.J. mcCarthy looked bad for three quarters. Bo Nicks didn't look good with Sean Payton. Caleb didn't look bad in the first half. So there were moments for other young quarterbacks where you're kind of, oh, that, that didn't look great. Now, not everybody's going to be Jaden Daniels. Drake May did not have a good Sunday. I like Drake May. So, again, young quarterbacks, the difference between the great ones, you kind of get the same thing every Sunday. You may lose, but you feel like. I always feel like even with Mahomes losing to the Chargers, you kind of get the same greatness. And Tom Brady lost games, but about every other year he'd have a stinker. So young quarterbacks are like young anything. You get less consistency. It's up and down. JJ was bad for 3/4, great for one. I thought Caleb on script in the first half was mostly pretty good, but the further he got away from that script, the uglier and the less accuracy he exhibited. That's a real thing. J. Mac with the news. No, no, no, no. Turn on the news.

[Colin Cowherd]

This is the Herd line news. All right, Colin, I want to preface this first story by saying last year in week one, there were some craziness, okay? The Commanders got blasted by the Bucks.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Commanders made the NFC Championship game. Well, let's go into the Detroit Lions now. And they were bad in week one. They got humiliated by the Packers. They were down 276 before a garbage time. Touchdown. Goff and the offense were held without a touchdown until literally the final minute of the game. Colin, now Goff says we need a lot more urgency. Here we go.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah, we'll move forward fine. We will. We. We've got good players, we got good coaches. We'll be fine. It's just there needs to be a urgency of improvement, you know, it has to be. And today wasn't even close to good enough, I think, offensively. And we got a lot to work a Lot of work to do, making sure everyone's on the same page and our communication is better and getting lined up correctly and all that stuff. And ultimately a lot of it falls on me. Yeah, some of it falls on you, but some of it falls on play calling and lack of ingenuity. And Green Bay is really good.

[Colin Cowherd]

So I'm looking at the Bears last night. Now, maybe the numbers haven't been updated, but I'm seeing not many blitzes and they were still getting some pressure. We know Goff, okay, up the middle, was struggling with the backup center, you know, Ragnarok.

[Jason McIntyre]

The Bears got real pressure in the first three quarters.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay, so if they did it without the blitz, that's good news against Goff. Do you think, what's your early read on this? And I'm not asking you to pick the game on a Tuesday.

[Jason McIntyre]

No, I think I. This is something I strongly believe in, is when you lose great people in a company and you decide, we're just going to hire people that are in house. Sometimes it works because they understand your culture. But the best people in life, in any industry. If Netflix loses their content director, are you sure the best guy in the world is at Netflix? So I think that. And that's my takeaway. You lose Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who were the best coordinator tandem in the league. We talked about Ben Johnson for three years. He was offered other jobs. He leaves. Well, let's give it to the mid 50 guy in the building. I'm just, I'm just being honest. I've said this before. Remember David Cully in Houston? He had been a long time. No. He'd been a longtime assistant. Everybody loved. And everybody's like, well, he's a good guy. Houston hires him three weeks in, you're like, there's a reason he hadn't interviewed for head jobs for all those years. It's not a knock on people, but the bottom line is staying in house to hire the second biggest, I would say head Coach is number one in this league. OC is to. If you have a 17 person staff, the second most important hire is the OC. And I think you replace Ben Johnson with a guy everybody likes in house. Roll the dice. Roll of the dice.

[Colin Cowherd]

We can make it to Baity. They went against the best team in the nfc. You said yesterday the packers look like.

[Jason McIntyre]

One of the three best teams. Packers are unbelievable.

[Colin Cowherd]

Packers are really good. The Chicago Bears did not look great last night, Colin. So now the Lions are at home, crowd's going to be juiced up. You're on the turf. You know, I expect this team to look way better.

[Jason McIntyre]

I have a right, I have a right to avoid betting that game.

[Colin Cowherd]

You do. You certainly do.

[Jason McIntyre]

Now, I don't, I don't want to touch it.

[Colin Cowherd]

I don't know what we're allowed to do with mentioning gambling companies, but I did see the Detroit Lions win total has been adjusted down to what it is currently eight and a half. It's juiced, but still like you gotta lay.

[Jason McIntyre]

So what does that tell you?

[Colin Cowherd]

It was ten and a half. No, it's eight and a half.

[Jason McIntyre]

No, that's Vegas telling you this is a 8 19.

[Colin Cowherd]

Or is that Vegas baiting you into betting on the Lions all of a sudden stinking when they just faced a juggernaut?

[Jason McIntyre]

Remember when. I've never done this before in all the years I've been doing this, I've never watched a Hall of Fame game and had. And had a definitive statement.

[Colin Cowherd]

Right.

[Jason McIntyre]

The hall of Fame game. The Lions were so disorganized. I'm like, sell your stock, sell your stock.

[Colin Cowherd]

So part of me wants to buy some stock because everybody, everybody's selling. What does Warren Buffett say when everybody's going one way, go the other. So I'm torn, but I think I'm like you. I'm. They already asked me for my picks for Friday's headlines. You go four and one, Jay, it's Tuesday. Where are the picks? I don't have a strong take on this one, but I'm leaning. Lions leaning. It's early. Next up, Colin, is the Baltimore Ravens.

[Jason McIntyre]

Oh my gosh.

[Colin Cowherd]

Sunday night, just an unbelievable finish, but they started to dig into the numbers. Colin, are you ready for this? That loss being up two touchdowns late in the fourth, it was the 17th time since John Harbaugh took over as head coach where Baltimore has blown a double digit second half lead. Harbaugh is knows the number is way too high.

[Jason McIntyre]

Maybe part of it's the fact that we've been ahead a lot. You know, we've won a lot of games, so we've had a lot of. And we've had a lot of two score leads. So we've, we've kept a lot of those, but we've, I think we've lost six of them. If I'm not mistaken. That's too many. We need to be really thoughtful of, you know, how we decide that we're going to approach those situations going forward. You know, let's give it some thought. Let me, let me defend Baltimore and Harbaugh on this, please.

[Colin Cowherd]

Try.

[Jason McIntyre]

Okay, so one, no team has had more blowout wins in the NFL over the last five years than Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They blow good teams out regularly in the regular season. Secondly, it's hard to convince players leading by 16 points or 17 points with 7 minutes left. All gas, no breaks. Coaches coach more conservatively. That is the reality of big leads in the NFL. So it's not just their defense on the back end. They're off. Look at their last three offensive drives. You're trying to convince a team that has dominated Buffalo. Hey, hey, they're going to come back. When they were down 15 with 350 to go, did you think to yourself, we're going to see an improbable comeback? Nobody in. And if Derrick Henry doesn't fumble, they don't lose that game. Some of this is Mark Andrews dropping a pass or Derrick Henry fumbling. So I don't think it's an epidemic, but I do think what he says is we lead big a lot. It is hard. You know this. You talk about it all the time. Backdoor covers are an epidemic in the NFL where you can watch a bad team trail by 17, then they trail by 7 and you lose your bet. So I, I don't listen, they gotta beat Kansas City, okay? They have to. Eventually they're gonna meet Buffalo again. And I don't think this outcome will determine or defend or change the next outcome.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay, that's a fair argument. You're there. I get that. If we could get it on the screen one more time. Collins. Since 2022, they have blown seven second half double digit leads. So 2022 is only three years in one game. That's not even 50 games. They've led and blown seven. Now I was talking with Zach Sharp, guy went to Oregon, you know, and I'm sitting here like, why are they consistently blowing these leads? They've got a dynamic quarterback, they've got a great head coach, right? Harbaugh's a top five coach. Why? And I couldn't come up with a legitimate reason. And I like your reason, but okay.

[Jason McIntyre]

Here'S another thing, okay? If you don't play Lamar Jackson regularly, there is no comp at practice. That's why he is so dominant against the NFC. He's like, like 24 and one against the NFC or some absurd number. You can not, you can have a guy that's not Mahomes, but you can, you can find somebody in your training camp can do some Mahomes ish stuff. Lamar is such a unique player. You can't practice for him. And in the first half of games, literally you're back, you're on your back foot. He's, it's like Tyson in his prime. It's like that power, okay, oh my Lord. If you could get to round six against Tyson and you could kind of figure out Tyson's power and the angles and a lot of times I think a double digit lead doesn't mean 20, it can mean 10. And then all of a sudden now it's the eighth drive against Lamar, you've kind of figured him out a little bit. Not bad.

[Colin Cowherd]

That's probably some of your best work on the fly because remember, in the NBA, 20 point leads were nothing a couple of years ago because of the.

[Jason McIntyre]

3, 10 point lead in the NFL.

[Colin Cowherd]

Is nothing against Lamar and Derrick Henry, it's.

[Jason McIntyre]

Did you see what J.J. mcCarthy did in the fourth quarter? Yeah, we, the last two night games, teams dropped three touchdowns in minutes.

[Colin Cowherd]

Remember Flores adjusted at halftime and the Bears couldn't move the football. But just one final thought, like, maybe this is on Harbaugh and he needs to go to Lamar when they're up in the second half and be like, dude, all we do is blow leads. Put these guys on the canvas, wipe them out. Let's stay aggressive. Maybe they're not doing enough of that. I, I, it's tough when you're leading, but I know when I'm in the men's league and we're leading, I'm jacking threes for the knockout.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah. By the way, I'm sure everybody doesn't love it as much as you do.

[Colin Cowherd]

I do.

[Jason McIntyre]

When you lead big, the remedy isn't jack threes.

[Colin Cowherd]

We don't blow leads. Lamar, keep your foot on the gas story.

[Jason McIntyre]

You don't play the Bills.

[Colin Cowherd]

Also true, final story is the Miami Dolphins.

[Jason McIntyre]

Oh, my gosh. Oh, oh.

[Colin Cowherd]

Mike McDaniels under fire. I mean, I know he looks cool on the sideline with the aviators, but holy cow, when you lose to Daniel Jones by a billion, it's bad. Mike McDaniels says things can only go up from here.

[Jason McIntyre]

The good news, the positive is I don't see how it could be worse. And I also believe in, you know.

[Colin Cowherd]

The coaches and players to get it fixed because it wasn't, you know, it's just a shame.

[Jason McIntyre]

You work behind the scenes for months on end and you don't show any of it. It's frustrating, but that can be a good thing. It's not that you didn't show it. You didn't have fight. That's a lack of belief in the coach. That's. And again, Chris Greer has been a GM there for almost a decade. I don't like their roster. You could not watch that game and think the Dolphins are close to the Colts in a roster composition. Colts have good players. Oh, but come on now.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay.

[Jason McIntyre]

They've got nice weapons. They got good weapons.

[Colin Cowherd]

I believe Vegas had the Dolphins with a higher win total than the Colts by. By one game. Yeah. In the preseason.

[Jason McIntyre]

That's a quarterback thing. One's a Pro Bowler and one before you.

[Colin Cowherd]

It sounds like you like the Patriots this week. Just before you lay the lumber, make sure you check the weather. We always got to see if it's super hot in September in Florida and you know, one sidelines in the shade. Miami plays those games. Just let's, let's not automatically lay the Patriots here, folks.

[Jason McIntyre]

I didn't say I was picking it in the blazing five up a winning week, but I am. It's under consideration.

[Colin Cowherd]

All right.

[Jason McIntyre]

Just.

[Colin Cowherd]

They're not going to look as bad. Miami's not going to be that bad.

[Jason McIntyre]

Neither is New England. JMAC with the news. Well, that's the news. And thanks for stopping by.

[Colin Cowherd]

The Herd lie news.

[Jason McIntyre]

I like when the Raiders win. Even though I'm a Patriot guy and Vrabel guy. It's fun. When the Raiders win, it's. It's optimistic. I mean, it just. I got Chip Kelly, I got Pete Carroll, I got Max Crosby, I got Brock Bowers, I got Ashton Genty. It's when the Raiders win. Do you see how well they traveled? You see how many Raider fans were in Foxborough?

[Colin Cowherd]

What are you. What have you been texting the coaching staff? You have Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, you.

[Jason McIntyre]

Guys buddies like you bother. These guys are professionals. I don't bother. The home you've worked so hard for. Don't forget herd hierarchy. Nick Wright, top of the next hour. The home you've worked so hard for is going to work hard for you. If you want an equity loan in your house, that's the part of the house. Once you own it, that's the part you actually own. Rocket mortgage. Rocket Mortgage, LLC is licensed. Licensed in all 50 states. Learn how you can turn your home's equity into cash. Go to RocketMortgage.com today. Be sure to catch live editions of the Herd, Weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals. And that's where it stands apart from other ad buys. You can target your buyers by job title, industry role, company seniority, skills, company revenue, all the professionals you need to reach in one place. Stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. Start targeting the right professionals only on LinkedIn ads. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com cowherd that's LinkedIn.com cowherd Terms and conditions apply. Balancing work, family and education isn't easy, but American Public University makes it possible with online courses, monthly start dates and flexible schedules. APU is designed for busy professionals who need education that fits their lives. And Affordability matters too. APU offers the opportunity grant, giving students 10% off undergraduate and master's level tuition, helping you reach your goals without breaking the bank. Plus, they provide career services and 247 mental health support at no extra cost. Visit Apu Apus Edu to learn more. That's Apu Apus Edu running a business.

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[Jason McIntyre]

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[Colin Cowherd]

Start your Saturday strong with Big Noon. It's a new era. Quarterback Dante Moore leads Oregon's explosive attack into their first Big Ten matchup, taking on Northwestern. It all starts at 10 Eastern, live from Evanston with the Big Noon Kickoff crew. Then it's Oregon, Northwestern only on fox.

[Jason McIntyre]

By the way, the weather in Chicago, beautiful this weekend. Should make a trip out there sometime. Absolutely glorious. Oregon, big in that one. Okay, so listen, nobody wants negative calling all day. So here's the upside. I would say, if you're a Bears fan, where's the silver lining? So my take is I could certainly say that Brian Flores is the best defensive coordinator you will face all year. That's. I believe that to be true. You will not face a more sophisticated, aggressive, difficult coordinator defensively for a young quarterback the rest of the year than Brian Flores. Secondly, the Vikings defense will be one of the top three you face all year. I mean, you play the Ravens, they got lit up. You play the, you play the Steelers, they're. Justin Fields ate them alive. If you look at the schedule, the best defenses, the Bears play Philadelphia, Green Bay twice, and then Miles Garrett. That is all November. So the early schedule, Minnesota was the 1 defense with Brian Flores that was a pretty tough row. I see a lot of Detroit, Dallas, Washington, Vegas, New Orleans, Baltimore, Cincinnati, the Giants. Oh, the Giants are pretty good. That defense is going to be on the field on a snap basis more than any in the league with that BB gun offense. Injuries, fatigue, disenchantment. That Giants defense, 6, 7 Russell Wilson, Jackson starts in May, not play like that. May be banged up because they're going to be on the field a lot. And so my take is this wasn't, this was a tough lift. There's a reason I like Minnesota. I felt strongly about it. I didn't feel strongly about it at halftime. But here's Caleb Williams on what he saw, what he envisions. And going forward, we felt like we were dominated game like you said, and we were, you know, in control. Up to two scores coming out of half. And that, that mentality is something that we have, something that we, you know, that we preach and that didn't happen today. And I'm not. It's not a play call thing. It's not, not anything like that. It's just being able to go out there and execute the plays that are called and be able to, you know, execute them at a high level. And again, what the great coaches and coordinators do at half, they flip the script. Okay, that, that's what great coordinating is. It's not just the stuff on the script. I said this when Matt Leflore came over from Tennessee to Green Bay his first year. Packers were great in the first half. He'd never been a head coach. He was great on script, but he did not, to me, do a great job at halftime. They were not a great third quarter team, but by year two they were so it is. I mean, Brian Flores made adjustments at half and it changed things. And we saw this all weekend where the really good coaches. Second half you get a different version of the offense or the defense. So again, Ben Johnson was frustrated. Brian Flores versus young quarterbacks has done a lot of damage to young quarterback's confidence in his career was not an easy lift. Detroit doesn't have Brian Flores and I don't think they have the defense. It's on the road, but these days that's a point to a point and a half. Okay, so now when I pick the Niners to finish third, Rams win the division, Seahawks wild card, Niners third. People freaked out. I said, I love a lot of the Niners, but they're brittle. They're an antique store. It is old stuff breaks. What is the story this morning? Brock Purdy, toe injuries, left shoulder. So now Brock has only missed three games and they're 03 when he doesn't play. And his big surgery was, you know, after a conference championship game. So he didn't miss starts there. But the injury report, week one for the Niners. George Kittle, now in his 30s, out for three to five weeks. Trent Williams, 37, spent time in the blue tent. Brock Purdy banged up. It is not a talent issue. Brock Purdy's always been slightly undersized. I wish he was a little bigger. Having the easiest schedule isn't the brag you think it is. When stars aren't available and starters aren't available. Here's the other thing. Do you know who had the most touches in week one? Christian McAffrey off an injury. That's not great. And remember, in this division, go ask CJ Stroud about the Rams defensive front. So the Niners O line's not great. If Trent Williams gets hurt, It's a bottom five or six. O line, Rams, twice. They were all over C.J. stroud. Seahawks, by the way, had number one in the NFL in hurries in week one. So, in fact, let me see the official number here real quick. Yeah. The most pressures in the NFL Week 1. The Seahawks defense, you got to face them again. The Rams twice. And Arizona spent their entire draft on defensive players. Will Johnson was very good in the opener. And they have a defensive coach, so their defensive front is getting better. So this is a division. Some divisions, like the NFC north, they're offensive divisions. The Rams defense. The Seahawks have a defensive coach. Arizona's got a defensive coach. This is more of a. I mean, even last year with the Rams, when Puka Nakua gets banged up, there's not a lot of pop. Even with Matt Stafford to the Rams offense, they need Puka to be available. So here is Kyle Shanahan on Brock Purdy's injury. I'd probably say the toe's worse than the shoulder.

[Colin Cowherd]

And what about his availability this week?

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah, we're not sure. We got to see how it heals and how the week goes. On it. I think Mack had a really good camp going back all the way to OTAs and training camp. He has to go this week. He'll lead the guys. The guys will believe in him. And I know he'll do his job at a high level. Okay. Mack Jones would play if he doesn't. This just in. Tom Pelissaro. The Niners have waived kicker Jake Moody, third round. Picking a kicker. Don't love that. I don't mind drafting a kicker. Gotta be late. They have waived him. Got a kick. Blocked. Missed a kick. Can't do it. So John Lynch's drafting record has been very hit and miss. They've done really good things late in the draft. Ricky Pearsall looks like a hit. They got Debo in the second. They've moved him. He was a hit. Obviously, Brock Purdy is the hit of the decade, but the Jake Moody thing, I think you. I think Jake Moody. I mean, the. The criticism from the media and fans is that the Niners were validating the pick by keeping him. He was so bad last Year So I think this is one of those not to save the locker room to but to really reassure everybody in the bay we're not keeping him just because we drafted him. The NERS are moving. They moved off Trey Lance who they waste all those picks on first they moved him fast and I think people were saying you missed on Jake Moody move him. So I, I, I, I hate it. I feel bad for the kid but I think you had to so you.

[Colin Cowherd]

See though on the screen it's Niners four and a half. This was six and a half. They are playing the Saints Robert Sala against Spencer Rattler. I think it's game, set match. I know it's back to back road games and a lot of noise as you'd like to see.

[Jason McIntyre]

I think Brock Purdy will play. I think he's a tough kid in a gamer. Okay. At Iowa State he got banged up. He didn't have all Americans in front of him. I think Brock plays. I think San Francisco wins and again I think Robert Sala is on a short list with Brian Flores as the best defensive coordinator in the league. And I think with young quarterbacks that's one of the first things I look at who's the young quarterback going against defensively? Do you have a big pass rush? Do you have a veteran? D.C. i like the Niners in that game even without Kittle I like him to win in cover.

[Colin Cowherd]

They'll have a week to scheme up the new and by who needs Kittle when you got Jake Tongass, whoever that is the guy who caught the game winner. The other thing is I was on Arizona in New Orleans so I watched closely. Kyler Murray was like picking his spots easily. The secondary for the Saint stinks. They traded a lotta more last year.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

So like they just don't have a lot of. I think they're going to be okay. And by the way Pearsall, we didn't talk about it.

[Jason McIntyre]

He played well, he looked good.

[Colin Cowherd]

And that Seattle secondary is top eight unit in the league.

[Jason McIntyre]

Very very good.

[Colin Cowherd]

By the way Seattle I believe at Pittsburgh is a really good game that.

[Jason McIntyre]

Is, it's a field goal game. So something to know. Seattle dialed up a lot of pressure against the Niners and the Steelers O line was not great. It was they, they scored a lot of points but they couldn't run the ball and Aaron got smoked.

[Colin Cowherd]

Does Pittsburgh look like a team that should be favored by three?

[Jason McIntyre]

What is the over under on that?

[Colin Cowherd]

I see 40.

[Jason McIntyre]

Okay. I would take the under.

[Colin Cowherd]

I think Seattle's, I mean that defense.

[Jason McIntyre]

Looked very I think Seattle Pittsburgh, that's a good one under 40 and I hit my under. That would probably be one of my blazing five picks.

[Colin Cowherd]

Are you going to do more totals in the blazing?

[Jason McIntyre]

Well you know I'm also going to do a proper two.

[Colin Cowherd]

Really?

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Getting exotic on us.

[Jason McIntyre]

Well no, but there are a couple of props this weekend. I looked at it so I had two props and I just looked at him.

[Colin Cowherd]

I like remember the Mark Andrews to score that did not happen because they never got in the red zone because Derek Henry scoring from 60.

[Jason McIntyre]

No but if you look at the week two schedule just don't over value week one. But there are things that are true. Seattle's defense under Mike McDonald is hyper aggressive. They've drafted well, it's young, it's active and I think they look at the Steelers O line and lack of run game and see a very in a 41 year old quarterback. I think Seattle's looking at film thinking. Aaron doesn't move, they don't run the ball. We got to get to Aaron fast. So I think you're going to see a super aggressive Seahawk defense in Pittsburgh.

[Colin Cowherd]

And if Darnold doesn't drop the ball like the 10 yard line, they probably win the game.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah. So when we've said this, sometimes teams lose like Dallas lost but it's baked in because everybody watched it. Not everybody watched that regional game. Not everybody watched the Seahawks. Seahawks were poised to win and Darnold bumped into his own teammate and fumbled.

[Colin Cowherd]

Not everybody watched the Titans. Do you want to get to that game at some point?

[Jason McIntyre]

My favorite game of the weekend is Titans at home plus five and a half against the Rams. That's my favorite pick of the week. Cam Ward had to watch the game. He can spin it. American Public University where service members like you can access high quality affordable education built for your lifestyle. With online programs that fit around deployments, training and unpredictable schedules, APU makes it possible to earn your degree no matter where duty takes you. Their preferred military rate keeps tuition at just $250 per credit hour for undergraduate and master's tuition. And with 24. 7 mental health support plus career coaching and other services, APU is committed to your success during and after your service. Learn more at Apu Apus Edu Military. That's Apu Apus Edu Military. Time for a sofa upgrade.

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Jason McIntyre]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[Jason McIntyre]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[Jason McIntyre]

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[Colin Cowherd]

To change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Jason McIntyre]

Who cares about truth when the lie is more entertaining? Welcome home.

[Colin Cowherd]

I'm Angela Rye, co host of the.

[Jason McIntyre]

Native Lampod with Andrew Gillum and Tiffany.

[Colin Cowherd]

Cross, and we want y' all to survive and thrive in this political moment.

[Jason McIntyre]

We're having the same debates that American households are having all over the country. I am terrified that in our rest.

[Colin Cowherd]

We'Re going to miss the moment.

[Jason McIntyre]

You want me to stop resting? What specifically are you asking me to do?

[Colin Cowherd]

Stay informed and take action.

[Jason McIntyre]

Listen to Native Land pod on the.

[Colin Cowherd]

Iheartradio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jason McIntyre]

Why are TSA rules so confusing? You got a hoodie on, Take it off. I'm Manny. I'm Noah, this is Devin and we're best friends in German journalists with a new podcast called no Such Thing where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? Well, I can't expect what to do now if the rule was the same, go off on me, I deserve it. You know, Lock him up. Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. No Such Thing.

[Colin Cowherd]

This is an I Heart podcast.