The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Hour 1

December 16, 2025
Main Theme:
Colin Cowherd dives into the state of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ winning formula, questions whether consistency is enough, breaks down what missing the playoffs could mean for the Chiefs, and gives an unfiltered look at rising and falling NFL teams and quarterbacks as the playoffs draw near.

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on:

• The Steelers' continued string of winning seasons – but what is lost in the pursuit of “just good enough”?
• Why missing the playoffs could benefit the Kansas City Chiefs (and parallels to past Patriots strategy).
• Honest assessments of quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and more.
• Team trends, playoff picture analysis, and betting angles for key games.
• The importance of roster construction, coaching, and the right mindset for NFL teams on the verge.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Steelers' Formula: Competence, Not Contention

Timestamps: 03:10 – 08:17, 08:35, 30:15

• Steelers win again at home on Monday Night Football. Colin notes, “They just don't lose. I feel like the Steeler model is what I have a problem with.”
• The Steelers focus on the wrong benchmarks. “They care about two things that just don't matter to people with high standards: Having a winning record, and winning Monday Night Football. ...If you have high standards, a winning record is not a top three or four thing.” (04:37)
• Groundhog Day: The template is repeating: "Stop gap at quarterback, barely above .500, rinse and repeat and that's where we are."
• Old roster, few assets, no clear QB future. “They're currently drafting 20th and they have a stop gap at quarterback. No long-term solution and they don't have any assets to trade up.” (04:08)
• Aaron Rodgers is praised for elevating the offense: “Aaron deserves all sorts of praise. Short-term, it feels really good... but he can’t fix what’s systemic.”
  • “[Rodgers] was a consultant. He’d solve some small problems, but he’d leave soon, and the big stuff remains.” (06:50)
• Notable Stat: “Seventeen teams in the NFL have a positive point differential. Steelers are 17th—barely treading water.” (05:54)

Notable Quote:

• “Congratulations. Aaron deserves a lot of praise. ...He’s turned their red zone woes into red zone wins. At 42. Not a great O-line, not a dependable run game... but what does it mean?” – Colin Cowherd (06:40)

2. Chiefs: Why Missing the Playoffs Is The Jolt They Need

Timestamps: 08:36 – 12:47

• The Chiefs’ streak may end — and that’s good: “Missing the playoffs is perfect. It’s a cold glass of water to the face. Sometimes you make the playoffs and you think, ‘We’re inches away.’ No, you’re yards away.” (09:53)
• Rebuild vs. Retool: Colin asks, “Who’s their fourth-best player in their prime? ...Rams have about 12. Eagles have 12. Lions have nine. Baltimore's got eight.”
• Reminds him of the Patriots’ post-Brady overhaul: “Belichick literally tore all the championship evidence off the walls and said, ‘We’re starting over.’ Then they got on a heater.” (11:04)
• Critique of incrementalism: “It’s not a tweak. You’ve got to take this boat back to port and rebuild it.” (11:39)
• Parity in the NFL: “The NFL lets 40% of teams into the playoffs – and Kansas City might be out because of core issues.”

Notable Quote:

• “The last three years, Kansas City... are 16th in points per game, 18th in yards per play, and 24th in big plays. Does that sound like a tweak in an offensive league?” – Colin Cowherd (10:23)

3. QB Evaluations: Rodgers, Tua, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence

Timestamps: 13:10 – 21:30, 24:27

• Aaron Rodgers: “He’s always played well in these cold, harsh environments. ...Still, he can’t solve the fact they spend too much on defense.”
• Tua Tagovailoa criticism: “The Dolphins gotta cut bait with Tua. That thing’s over. He is a backup quarterback in this league.” (05:14)
• Small Quarterback Syndrome: “Small quarterbacks age really quickly. ...Russell Wilson regressed badly in a year and a half. Tua is a backup and not a great backup.” (13:00)
• Caleb Williams analysis: “Fewest interceptions in a QB’s first 1,000 passes – greatest ever. ...Who cares if he puts his pajamas on backwards? You’ve got Beethoven down the hall.” (17:07)
  • “Caleb Williams, the horsepower, the torque. ...If your kid’s doing Beethoven at eight... not everyone’s playing by the same rules.” (18:02)
• Josh Allen vs. Caleb Williams: “Everybody's talking about how accurate Josh Allen is this year. That's because he throws the tight ends. ...I’d rather Josh complete 64% and throw downfield.” (19:13)
• Bo Nix praise: “If there's a year to win it with a young quarterback, Drake May or Bo Nix, this is the year to win the AFC.” (23:16)
• Trevor Lawrence: “Bo Nix doesn’t make the mistakes, doesn’t take the sacks. ...Trevor Lawrence gets sacked, ugly picks, negative plays.” (24:24)

Notable Quote:

• “Not every quarterback's the same. Caleb, Josh Allen, and Mahomes — it looks different.” – Colin Cowherd (20:13)

4. Team Trends, Matchups, and Playoff Picture

Timestamps: 22:04 – 31:07, 39:20 – 50:37

• Broncos’ playoff run: “Bo Nix plays like that again, this team’s going places. And the Russell Wilson dead cap money off the books, roster’s gonna have space.” (22:32)
• Denver defense’s quality debated: Some analytics like them, but “a lot of it, they got fat and happy off bad teams.” (23:51)
• Betting leans:
  • “If the Jags line goes to 3.5, I’d take Jacksonville.” (24:15)
  • “Love Detroit this week. ...This is my second favorite bet of the week, Lions at home.” (29:44)
  • “Over 51 – I think the Steelers could probably get to 24 and Detroit’s probably going to hit 40.” (31:07)
• Lions’ bounce-back ability: “After a loss, the Lions have been the best team in the league. ...They’ve won 12 straight after a loss.” (29:30)
• Rams offense and flaws: “It’s about as deep as you’ll find. Their hole is the back end of their secondary — you can throw the ball and go over the top on them. Offensively, not a lot of flaws.” (26:50)
• Seahawks drop-off: “They have not been a good football team for about a month. That Rams loss where Darnold threw four picks kind of messed with them.” (27:43)
• Playoff scenarios and matchups:
  • Analyzes AFC and NFC brackets in detail, notes who he’d favor in each potential game (see timestamps 43:20 – 47:15).

5. Roster Construction, Coaching, and Team Chemistry

Timestamps: 31:07 – 35:32

• On George Pickens’ maturity: “At Georgia, Pittsburgh and now Dallas, George Pickens is really immature. ...It’s a little bit of the Dez Bryant thing.”
• Lessons in team-building:
  • “Two rules in a contract. Pay big money very infrequently...and only to the mature, team-first guys.”
  • “It's not about your stars. It's about what kind of guy your stars are. ...Are they we-guys or me-guys?”
• Citing Tim Duncan as the right kind of star: “An NBA GM told me years ago, it’s about getting the right star. Obsessed with winning, team-first.”

Notable Quote:

• “It’s not about the stars. Which star do you get? Because there’s a lot of stars in sports – especially at wide receiver. Are they built around you guys? Are they we guys, or me guys?” – Colin Cowherd (34:06)

6. Miami’s Situation: Time to Move Past Tua?

Timestamps: 39:20 – 43:08

• Mixed feelings on Mike McDaniel: “He’s not my kind of alpha. He’s quirky. But...you can keep him another year. Maybe he finds his Bo Nix.”
• Why keep McDaniel? “There is no Vrabel or Harbaugh or Ben Johnson on the market. ...Not a great cycle for coaching candidates.”
• Tua’s regression: “Small quarterbacks age very fast. ...He is a mediocre backup.”
  • After Monday night: “Tua was awful...that’s a terrible sack to take. It just doesn’t work anymore. Come on. What are you doing?”
  • Tua’s own accountability: “I gotta be better for our guys offensively. ...I kinda felt like I let our guys down.” (42:43)

Notable Quote:

• “Sean Payton looked at a broken offense and said, ‘There’s this quarterback nobody else likes...I’m going to get him’...Mike McDaniel may look at one of these college quarterbacks not named Mendoza and say ‘That’s my guy.’” – Colin Cowherd (40:44)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Colin on Steelers identity:

  • “Feels like Aaron is one of those consultants...they could solve some little problems...but consultants always left, and all the big stuff, like bad ownership or a bad GM...they couldn’t solve.” (06:50)

• On the value of “winning records”:

  • “Sean Payton never talks about that in Denver. It’s not a thing.” (04:40)

• On Mahomes and the Chiefs:

  • “It’s not a tweak. You got to take this boat back to port and rebuild it.” (11:39)

• On NFL playoff parity:

  • “The NFL allows 40% of teams in this league into the playoffs. ...Kansas City won’t, with Reid and Mahomes. I don’t buy that it’s just a retool.” (12:20)

• On Pickens' attitude:

  • “Pay big money...and it’s gotta be the mature guys and the team guys, the we-guys over the me-guys.” (32:41)

• On Caleb Williams and outliers:

  • “If your kid is doing Beethoven at eight... not every kid ages, grows the same way. Not every quarterback’s the same.” (18:02)

• On Tua's struggles:

  • “He just doesn't want to get hit. He wants to get rid of the ball, especially on a cold night, hard turf...it just doesn’t work anymore.” (42:57)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [03:10] Steelers’ philosophy and Aaron Rodgers’ impact
• [08:17] Mike Tomlin postgame sound
• [09:53] Chiefs need to miss playoffs to recognize issues
• [13:10] QB talk: Rodgers, Tua, small QBs, Mahomes
• [17:07] Caleb Williams’ unique skillset; comparisons to greats
• [22:04] Broncos’ playoff prospects and AFC landscape
• [24:27] Jags/Broncos breakdown, Trevor Lawrence vs. Bo Nix
• [26:09] Rams/Seahawks preview, strengths and flaws of each
• [29:30] Lions bounce-back stats; betting angles
• [31:07] Team-building, the Pickens problem, and contract caution
• [39:20] Dolphins crossroads, Tua/McDaniel debate
• [43:20] In-depth AFC/NFC playoff scenarios and upsets
• [47:43] NFC playoff matchups and speed of postseason
• [50:15] Houston defense and Rams offense matchup discussion

Tone and Language

Colin maintains his trademark direct, conversational, and slightly irreverent tone throughout—a blend of storytelling, sharp analysis, and opinionated critique. He’s candid with praise, scathing in criticism, and never shies from calling out outdated thinking in NFL leadership.

For New Listeners:

This episode cuts to the heart of persistent NFL organizational issues: are you committed to true contention, or just repeating modest success? If you want high-level, honest talk about football’s biggest teams, quarterbacks, and the upcoming playoff picture—with betting and business angles—this is a can't-miss hour.

End of Hour 1 Summary.