The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Hour 1 – The Dodgers are in trouble, big market teams, J.J. McCarthy

Date: September 24, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Colin Cowherd dives into the surprising dynamics of Major League Baseball’s regular season as the playoffs approach, focusing especially on the underperformance of big-market, high-payroll teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers. He explores the myth of money guaranteeing success in sports, reflects on the rise of small and medium-market teams, and discusses the struggles and debates surrounding rookie quarterbacks in the NFL—most notably the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy. The hour features frank opinions, data-driven observations, and an engaging dialogue with co-host J. Mac.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Baseball's Payroll Paradox and Dodgers Woes

[03:13–08:45]

• Colin opens with reflections on the quirks of Major League Baseball, particularly how high payrolls guarantee nothing come playoff time.
• "The payroll gap matters in the regular season. But once you get to the playoffs, you don't know what's going to happen. No sport is weirder and quirkier than Major League Baseball." (Colin, 04:30)
• Example: $350M Mets versus $119M Reds battling equally for a playoff spot.
• The LA Dodgers, with the league’s highest payroll, continue to blow leads due to bullpen troubles:
  • "Ohtani's amazing, Mookie's hitting—and they can't close out games they should win. You can't win a World Series with an awful bullpen." (Colin, 06:18)
• Colin argues that the “mo money, mo problems” adage holds true in sports as well.

Notable Quotes:

• "Money never, ever decides everything." (Colin, 07:11)
• "For the millionth straight year, the Jets and Giants stink in New York. And the Packers are good." (Colin, 07:50)

2. Shining the Light on Small and Medium Market Teams

[07:40–09:30]

• Small market teams like the Brewers, Padres, Mariners, and Guardians are outperforming expectations.
• Colin predicts a Brewers vs. Mariners World Series, emphasizing that the old fears of big markets controlling baseball are overblown:
  • "So many people are neurotic, anxiety-filled fatalists. Take a deep breath. It's going to be okay." (Colin, 05:44)
• Even teams like Minnesota (Vikings) are structured for immediate wins, not future rebuilding, challenging the assumption that only big-name markets and high-dollar payrolls breed competitive teams.

3. Vikings Quarterback Debate: J.J. McCarthy vs. Carson Wentz

[09:31–16:15]

• Colin debates whether the Vikings should play rookie J.J. McCarthy or veteran Carson Wentz during the team's win-now window.
• Points out Wentz, despite his flaws, is still more NFL-ready than McCarthy:
  • "Carson Wentz today is better than J.J. McCarthy today. He's been in the NFL 10 years…he's seen every defense." (Colin, 10:31)
  • "With Carson Wentz and Kevin O'Connell's coaching…this group can win a lot of games." (Colin, 12:55)
• Points to the Vikings' investments and NFL business wisdom: Make choices based on what works now, not to justify previous draft decisions ("Whatever works, immediately double down on it and what doesn't, bail on it...Don't fall in love with your draft picks." — Colin, 11:51)
• Cites Greg Olson’s comments lauding Kevin O’Connell’s ability to maximize a quarterback’s performance:
  • "I'm not sure there is a coach in the league...who gets the most out of their quarterback within their system..." (Greg Olson, 13:05)

Co-host J. Mac’s Counterpoints:

• Reminds that McCarthy is only in year two and on a rookie deal, providing financial flexibility.
• "To win now, remember, McCarthy on the rookie deal? Only in year two, they still have two more summers where they can load up the roster." (J. Mac, 15:09)

4. Media Narratives & Quarterback Evaluation Philosophy

[42:03–45:55]

• Colin criticizes media overreaction around young quarterbacks, reiterating that only a few like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar are true system-proof QBs.
• For most young QBs, success is "almost entirely circumstantial."
• "My take has always been on young quarterbacks. Trust your eyes. Do they look overwhelmed? J.J. McCarthy probably is." (Colin, 43:16)
• "As long as they have reportedly a very good work ethic, they're committed, it'll be fine." (Colin, 43:44)
• Notes that too many give up on talent that simply needs the right context, e.g., Sam Darnold's athleticism and commitment.

Additional NFL and College Football Talk

5. Quick Hits: NFL Week 4 Early Reactions

[22:12–26:14]

• Colin breaks down why some early surges or slumps (Lions, Cowboys) might not last—because the "truth comes out" after a few games.
• Explains why Dak Prescott is the "buoy" keeping the Cowboys viable, and the Lions are simply too talented not to win at least 10 games.

6. Patience or Panic: Trade Deadline Game Preview

[42:03, tease for next segment]

• Teases an upcoming "Patience or Panic" segment: Should contenders make trades or stay the course before the NFL trade deadline?

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• On the Dodgers:
  "Their bullpen stinks. They blew another lead…My number one rule in baseball is can't win a World Series with an awful bullpen." (Colin, 06:12)
• On Money and Winning:
  "What's true in sports always is that money never, ever decides everything." (Colin, 07:11)
• On Front Office Wisdom:
  "Whatever works, immediately double down on it and what doesn't, bail on it. Don't try to validate your earlier choices." (Colin, 11:51)
• On Young QBs:
  "Trust your eyes. Do they look overwhelmed? J.J. McCarthy probably is." (Colin, 43:16)
• Greg Olson on Kevin O'Connell:
  "I'm not sure there is a coach in the league…who gets the most out of their quarterback…He has such a unique quality…mentor…schematic advantage but it's all the other stuff." (Greg Olson, 13:05)
• J. Mac on roster construction:
  "McCarthy on the rookie deal? Only in year two, they still have two more summers where they can load up the roster." (J. Mac, 15:09)

Tone and Style

Colin’s signature style shines: part sharp analyst, part pragmatist, always skeptical of popular narratives and quick reactions. The dialogue with J. Mac is playful but statistical, encouraging deeper thinking about both baseball and football volatility and decision-making.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & Baseball Payroll Discussion: 03:13–09:30
• Dodgers’ Problems Analyzed: 05:44–08:45
• Small Market/Sports Parity: 07:40–09:30
• Vikings QB Debate (McCarthy vs. Wentz): 09:31–16:15
• NFL Opening Month Truths (Lions, Cowboys): 22:12–26:14
• Young Quarterbacks, Development Context: 42:03–45:55

This summary covers the key sports conversations and debates in Hour 1, including memorable quotes, primary insights, and the evolving narratives surrounding high and low payroll teams, quarterback development, and team-building philosophy in the modern NFL and MLB.