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Colin Cowherd
All.
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Colin Cowherd
Mmm.
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Robert Mays
That's a hot one.
Colin Cowherd
Let's blaze it up, fire it up. It's Collins blazing fox packers at Bears I like the bears at home minus one and a half. They're eight and two over their last 10 games and those losses are only road losses. Caleb Williams has one or fewer giveaways in all 14 start, so they won't give the game away. And the defense, like most defenses, is better at home. It's number six in the league. I like the roster and they're much healthier than Green Bay. By the way. Teams that play the Broncos, which the packers just did, are 3 and 10. The week after playing Denver, they're beat up, missing several stars, not just starters. Run game for the packers feels dead. Run game for the Bears been on fire all season. I like the Bears to win and cover 27 to 23 Vikings and Giants upset. I like New York here For their last five losses by one score they are running the ball. Last six straight games 100 plus rushing yards without scatter boo. So they're pounding the Rock Jackson dart. I was wrong. I didn't think he'd be this good as a Rookie. His last five games he's got a 95 passer rating and he doesn't have a number one star back or a number one wide receiver. And the Vikings? They've lost for their last six. Their wins are over two atrocious defenses, Commanders and Cowboys. JJ McCarthy I'm going to take the better quarterback at home. I trust him more. Let's keep him out of the blue tent. I'll take the points. Giants win 28:27 Bengals at Dolphins maybe my favorite pick of the week. I'll take Cincinnati minus four and a half. They've scored 30 points in two of their last three games and Burrows in a bad mood because he mailed it in. The team did against the Ravens. Joe Burrow. This is weird. Not only has he won eight of his last 10 starts, he is unbelievable late in the season. In week 16 and 18 in his career he's seven and oh Miami. Five of the Dolphins six wins this year have come against the jets. Twice, the Saints, the Falcons, the Commanders and now they're starting Quinn Ewers. I have no idea what I'm getting from Quinn Ewers, but I know this. He's not Joe Burrow. I'm going to take Burrow in Cincinnati to win 30 to 20 in cover Patriots and Ravens. I don't get this line. I'm going to take the Patriots in the field goal 60 in the road out gain their opponents in nine straight games coming off a loss. So they'll be salty and Drake Maid's completion percentage is still 70. They'll move the chains consistently and they dominated Buffalo in the first half. The Ravens are three and five at home the last five games. Their passing game is toast and they're not very good on the back end. So I think Drake may could have some success down the field. I don't really get the line here. The Patriots are a good road team, excellent coach, coordinator. I'm going to take the points. I think The Patriots win outright. 28, 27 49ers at Colts maybe I've been listening to J. Mac but I like the Niners here. Minus five and a half four game winning streak. All four wins by double digits. Their third down offense has been great with Brock Purdy. They're not only the Rams are penalized last pretty healthy offensively and the Colts on the back end. Uh oh. Also, everybody loved Philip Rivers last week. It was a great memorable game and touching story. His passer rating was 73. He averaged 4.4 yards throwing the ball down the field. This offense, I mean again, Philip Rivers, a great story. He wasn't a great quarterback and the Niners have a ton to play for. Especially after Seattle comes back to beat the Rams. You're going to get a inspired effort by the 49ers. They can do a lot more with Brock Purdy moving the pocket than the Colts can. I like the Niners to win and cover 34 to 24. Three favorites. A couple of underdogs on our blazing five picks. J. Mack, quick thoughts.
J. Mack
I hate to break it to you but I'm against you on 12 games. I do love the Bears and Niners. I like those called fights.
Colin Cowherd
All right. And with that he's a writer for the Athletic. But now you know him as the Athletic football podcast show host. His name is Robert Mays joining our show again. You know I said this about Sam Darnold. It's kind of a funny stat. It's remarkable. In his last 39 starts he's 30 and nine and that's four different teams because he started a game of the Niners. First quarterback ever to win 12 games back to back two different teams. Not Brady, not Montana. I know the interceptions are ugly. He may not win a Super Bowl. I loved Andrew Luck, but there is something Robert about. He has a short memory. His body language does. I mean there's something to be said. It's always been my knock on Aaron Rodgers. I can tell how he's playing by his demeanor on the sideline. I kind of loved what Darnold did last night. What was your takeaway?
Robert Mays
If you think about the mental toughness even over the course of his career, some of the things he's come back from and now playing at this level, I think there's a real maturity to the way that he's approach the last few years. And you can see it in stuff like last night where he comes back from those early interceptions. I'm kind of with you. Like I, I just think this is the Sam Darnold experience. There are going to be a couple moments every game where it's like oh man Sam, you got to get rid of the ball. Or like I cannot believe he threw that. But then you watch what he did on those final couple drives. That throw to Cooper cup on that corner route, that's truly as good as it gets. Yeah, I mean he has elite moments as a passer and if you're going to ride the highs, you got to endure the lows. And I kind of just think that's what the Sam Darnold experience is right now.
Colin Cowherd
You know I told my staff this morning I would give Josh Allen the MVP over Stafford. And here's why. You saw it last night. Josh is great in the second half and that's not scripted. There are times where the ability to just say guys, I'm taking off. I've seen Mahomes do this in Super Bowls. The Rams offense, Robert can get stuck and last night I think they had four points in the fourth quarter and you're like guys, boy did they need a Herbert experience. They needed Caleb Williams. So I, I and, and this is not a knock on Stafford. It it's a reality. He may be the last great pure pocket passer but when you watch the Rams fourth quarter offense and it stalls. How, how do you view that? What, what, what's the issue to you?
Robert Mays
I think it's a reminder that their run game is incredibly important as like the engine of their offense overall if numbers the Rams are dominant on early downs and part of the reason for that is on early downs you have the threat of the run and you have the threat of play action pass when you put them in third and defiant pass and they're a drop back team, they're just not quite as dynamic and I think that's what you saw last night. They ran the ball at will in the first half and then when they couldn't do it in the second half the offense starts to feel a little bit more inconsistent and a little bit more herky jerky. And so that's the Seahawks deserve a ton of credit for really bowing up against the run because if you can do that, you feel a different version of the Rams offense.
Colin Cowherd
So listen, I, I, I have made my case that I like Caleb and Bo Nix. And I think, you know, Caleb's the greater athlete, the higher ceiling. I think Bo Nix is more accurate 10 yards and under the, the bubble stuff, the flat stuff, he's really good. Let's talk Caleb. Where have you seen, I mean, you, you dive deep on this stuff. Go to week one to now give me a couple of things where it's very clear either analytically on film, he's a better quarterback now than week one.
Robert Mays
I just think he looks so much more comfortable within the offense. And if you look at the timing he's playing with, I thought that the first half of that game against the Browns and even the performance overall against the Browns is probably the best game I've seen him play as a pro. And you see this spectacular, spectacular stuff like that touchdown DJ Moore. But to me it's about consistent ball placement. I don't think there was a single throw over that entire first half and maybe even the game where I'm like, he kind of wants that one back and you see his ability to drive the ball, that's what he does best, intermediate over the middle off play action. I'm going to rip it into this window. But what I really liked in the Browns game is that you saw him shaping some touch throws accurately and if he can start to harness every single club in his bag, that's where a guy with his talent level becomes like truly scary. And I think we're trending in that direction.
Colin Cowherd
Yesterday, Todd McShay said when he talked to GMs last year before the draft, very few had Bo Nix as a round talent. And I, I called my three or four guys I trust. They were totally split on him. So there are people that believe this is really about Sean Payton. What are the analytics say? He has been uneven. He can struggle down the field, but what are the numbers say? What's your take on Bo over the.
Robert Mays
First 14 weeks of the season? If you look at the Broncos offense, they were not an ambitious passing game. Like they did not want to push the ball downfield. I believe they ranked 28th in the NFL in the percentage of their throws that were short of sticks. It was a lot of yak, it was a lot of underneath stuff. Think even back to the Raiders game two Weeks ago. That's how they approached it. And so I think the question with Bo Nix was, all right, if he's got to make four or five throws down the field against a really good opponent and you're not just squeaking by against the jets and the Raiders, is he capable of doing that? And that's why last week, I think is so encouraging. If you're a Broncos fan, that's exactly what happened. I mean, he's just putting dots on guys on 35, 40 yard throws down the field against one of the best defenses they're going to play this year. And so if he's going to have that level of ambition as a passer and he's still going to bring some of the creation stuff that he has, the fact that he's a good athlete, the fact that he's accurate, his ability to attack all areas of the field, to me, that was the last thing I wanted to see. And so him being able to do that last week, that's a box checked in my opinion.
Colin Cowherd
You know, Buffalo is interesting. I've said I'd give Allen the MVP over Stafford because I think Stafford's got a much better roster. I call it Noah's Ark. Two of everything. Backs, tight ends, receivers, guards, like the Rams have a surplus of talent. I think three different tight ends had multiple catches last night. That's what they are. But the AFC is weird. No homes, no burrow, maybe no Lamar Jackson. Justin Herbert's beat up with an atrocious O line. Where are you soup to nuts on the Bills right now going into the playoffs if, you know, if things continue on.
Robert Mays
I don't know how you've experienced this or worked through this this year. It's been kind of this cognitive dissonance where I have a way, I've always processed the sport over the last, like 10 years. And it's quarterback centric. So the teams with the best quarterbacks are the teams that I'm going to trust late into the season. Well, I rode the Chiefs into the gutter like because of that. And I think the Ravens are kind of in a similar place where we believe in the quarterback, but they're not a good or dangerous team right now. And so I wonder if that's happening with Josh Allen, where I want to say he's the guy I would believe in in the AFC playoffs. But is that the type of year that we're discussing? Overall, I think that what they were in the second half against the Patriots is exactly why they're so scary. They do have A really good run game that. That is the foundation of the offense. They can run the ball downhill at you. Their offensive line is really good. Josh Allen is a force of nature. He's going to make three or four plays over the course of the game. Whereas a defensive coach, you're just going to sit there and shake your head because there's nothing you can do about it. And then the defense, it's not a great group, down to down, they're undersized, they struggle against the run. But I think that the staff is creative enough where they can throw a curveball at you, whether it's for two quarters, whether it's for a game. And they can catch you flush, the way that they did with Drake May in that half, the way they did to Patrick Mahomes earlier in the year. So if you have creativity and sort of unpredictability on defense combined with what Josh Allen can give you, that's why I still think that the Bills are probably the scariest team in that conference.
Colin Cowherd
So things can, I think, the team in the league. I had said this probably eight weeks ago. I said the coaching staff of the year is San Francisco. You had Mac Jones, except for Kittle, everybody was beat up. The defense lost in the offseason. Hungary and Greenlawn, and then Bosa and Warner. I'm like, this division has great coaching. What's happening? Nothing makes sense. The fact that they could win this division is insane to me. But I look at it and I think, man, do they have anybody defensively that you would trust in a big spot? Sometimes it's just great coaching in this league. I mean, we see Kevin o' Connell takes Josh Dobbs without a practice and wins a game. It's like, that is really good coaching and good for Josh Jobs. Where are you on the Niners?
Robert Mays
I think their offense is always going to be scary as long as they have, like 60% of the guys they need. And Kyle Shanahan. And that's exactly what's happened this year. The defense is where I just have my concerns. Like you look at even a team like the Titans. Last week, the Titans were able to push them around on the ground. That's the Titans. What are they going to look like against the Rams, the Packers teams in the NFC playoffs? That all of them have pretty dynamic offenses. And so I don't like moral victories. I understand if you're a Niners fan and the fact that you can get the one seed, you have designs on, like, doing stuff and making noise in the playoffs. I just think that right now they're just too banged up on the defensive side of the ball to be a real player in this thing. And that's okay. This was supposed to be like a transitionary year for the Niners. And so I think for the most part, they've been everything that you have wanted and more as they turn the page to what should be a better version of this thing in 2026.
Colin Cowherd
And, and, and, and maybe it's the Niners of the afc. Pittsburgh, I think, and I've been a critic, I think Aaron's been one of the most consistent redeemable parts. This is a. This offense has been tone deaf. How in the world can you go seven years without a run game? The O line, they've spent draft capital, still don't love it. They're big and D. I mean, even DK Metcalf, I. After him. I don't trust a lot of their receivers. Are they the Niners of the AFC that they should just. We should all just go, they made it in Aaron's 42. Salute the achievement or do you have them with a higher ceiling?
Robert Mays
I think I have them with a lower ceiling because I think in any given stretch of two or three games, the offenses are usually the teams I'm going to believe in because I think that offenses for the most part dictate your ceiling. So the fact that the Niners in any given game I think can score 30 points against most defenses in the NFL, I think that makes them a little bit scarier. The Steelers, I still feel like the offense is limited. That game they played against the Ravens, where he had four or five shots down the field, it was almost. It was like jarring watching that version of their offense because of how conservative they've been for the most part throughout this year. And so I think that right now when you watch them, he's still. Does not really want to hang in the pocket, does not really want to push the ball down the field. And while there have been some moments where he's kind of stepped outside of that, I still think that overall the offense is a little bit too limited for them to really give anybody any problems as they get into the playoffs.
Colin Cowherd
Let's go back. Robert Mays. One more question. Seahawks, Rams. J. Mack and I believe that when you really look of depth and experience and coaching, the Rams are better than the Seahawks. That's my take this morning, despite what happened. Where are you on that?
Robert Mays
I don't know if there are certain elements of the Rams that I'm just worried About. Right.
Colin Cowherd
I think that the.
Robert Mays
Exactly. And that's. Those are the margins we're talking about. When you want to win championships, those little things end up mattering. And so I think there are two different things about the Seahawks that give them a slight edge over the ramps top to bottom. I still think the Seahawks defense is better. I think the personnel is better. I think they have fewer weaknesses. And so that's a unit. Even if the Rams have been good, I still think that a couple cornerback issues and a couple weak points on the Rams defense I'm still a little bit more worried about than Seattle. And special teams is a real thing. The Seahawks have been one of the best special teams units in the NFL. This is kicking returns and we saw it last night. And this continues to be a significant problem for the Rams. This is like a multi year thing that they've had to work through. And I love the fact that, that we're getting this version of Sean McVay who's going for it three different times on fourth down in the first quarter. I think you can make an argument that he's not being aggressive enough considering the current state of their kicking game. And so how he ends up sorting through that, I think that's going to be the biggest question that the Rams have to answer. And it's just not a question the Seahawks have to worry about.
Colin Cowherd
Yeah, the Niners game, they missed a field goal and an extra point. The Eagles game, they had a kick blocked. And then last night that three of their losses are special teams. And what a circus and what a great game. Robert Mays. The Athletic Football show podcast is outstanding at Robert Mays. Love having you on the show. Your insight, your intellect. Thank you so much. Have a great weekend.
Robert Mays
Anytime. Colin, Thanks a lot.
Colin Cowherd
He does terrific work. Robert Mays. Yeah, it is. You know, it's crazy that if the Rams got to the super bowl and lost and it was special teams blunders, usually special. You're not good enough to get to a Super bowl if you have bad special teams. Here's the other thing to think about. So John Snyder looks at the two teams and at the trade deadline, he's like, where are the Rams weakest? And the Seattle GM probably says they're special teams. So J. Mac, he makes a move at the deadline to empower his Seattle special teams because he knows it's the Seahawks weakness. I don't know if he did that, but I could see Snyder, who's very strategic, going, okay, we don't think the Niners are going to be a threat. Big picture. The Rams may be one of two teams we struggle to get through. They're bad special teams. We're going to double down, give up mid round picks to get Rashid Saheed. And it paid off last night because they didn't need a number one receiver. But you know he's a deep threat first of all. But he is a special teams nightmare, especially against the Rams.
J. Mack
Yeah, and the other team in the division, the 49ers. Remember their kicking situation was brutal in week one. Shanahan was pulling his hair out. Yeah, they solve it with Piniero I think is his name or whatever it is. But he's an unbelievable kicker. So the Niners also got Sky Moore returning kicks. He's doing well. Of those three teams, the Rams very clearly have the worst special teams. And it's not close.
Colin Cowherd
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Colin Cowherd
Mmm.
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Colin Cowherd
Blazing five picks are in. Chris Peterson on the College Football Playoff. Take Oklahoma. Close and ugly tonight at home with a better defense. Little bit of a run game, a little bit. J. Mac with the news.
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Colin Cowherd
This is the Herd line news.
J. Mack
Well, the Bears are good so we're going to keep talking about them. Colin they are 10 and 4. Ben Johnson is cooking. Caleb Williams is kind of mid but he's winning games. That's all that matters. You remember Mike March, the offensive mastermind of those greatest show on turf teams. He believes Chicago has found themselves a gem in Ben Johnson.
Colin Cowherd
First of all, I think he's once in a generation coach. I think he's very unique that he'll home run with him. I think he'll be there for a very long time. He'll be extremely successful and he's the one guy that can take care of him and help him make that transition to become not just a good quarterback but great quarterback. So the Bears first of all got it right here. You know, they, they got that duo that should be together for quite some time and have a lot of success. Yeah, he is special and you know, it's still one of the poorest, weirdest ownership groups. I don't know where I stand on Robert Ryan poles He's done, he's done some good stuff. This roster is pretty good. Got to give him credit. But I think the glue that holds all of it together is Ben Johnson. He hold, he pulls it all together.
J. Mack
Yeah, Ben Johnson's been spectacular. We got some numbers here, Colin. And it was evident in like the first month of the season that this is now a run first team. That's what Ben did with the Detroit team. The run sets up all the passing schemes. Look at this rushing improvement year over year, biggest in the NFL. They got Swift and Manangai, who's come out of nowhere to be pretty damn good. And so when you have that run, the threat of it, the defenses have to come up and respect it. And then all of a sudden you got the wide open stuff downfield. DJ Moore cooking. We'll see. Luther Burden emerges. Roma Dunze. That injury concerns me a little bit. I, I'm with you. I like the Bears here this weekend against the Packers. I do like Ben Johnson a lot. I'm just wondering, Coach of the year is, is he. I mean, there's some really, really good candidates.
Colin Cowherd
Obviously Sean Payton, but you know, Shanahan, Sean Payton, but Sean Payton's got now the richest owners in the sport and their hands off.
J. Mack
Well, I don't, I don't want that to hold that against you.
Colin Cowherd
I'm voting. Well, no, I consider everything like Josh Allen's my MVP over Matt Stafford because he can run. I get, I get bonuses. So I mean, that's bottom line is Matt's a pocket guy, you know, and I think in big games I want a guy that can pick up first downs with his feet. When I look at a coach, what are you overcoming? It's much easier to have Stan Kroenke as a head coach than the McCaskeys. It's much easier. So the Denver, I mean, I think in. Sean Payton made the playoffs last year. I think what Ben is overcoming, the history he had to rebuild, the culture. Caleb, I think Ben's got, you know, Vrabel is going to be way up there too, because I still, I think Chicago's roster is better than New England's. But now he's, he's, he's tied for the fourth best odds this morning.
J. Mack
The fact that Ben Johnson has the Bears in this position when of the seven playoff teams in the nfc, I mean, I'm sorry, the Bears have the weakest quarterback of those seven. You know, I think. I'm sorry. Baker Mayfield right now is a better quarterback than Caleb. Not much, but you Got the worst quarterback of the seven. And you're doing that well, I don't know. Ben's been tremendous. I think he's probably maybe my. My pick for coach of the year. All right, let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Colin. We know they've got about a 1% chance to at the postseason. Some might say, hey, Dallas should just shut it down if they lose this one. But Dak Prescott, no way. He is not sitting out. No tanking for Dak.
Colin Cowherd
Being a professional. This is my job. This is what I love to do. You know, sitting out last year and the times before, you don't take getting to play this game for granted. You play every game to win. You play every game win. You get a chance to go to, you know, playoffs and play in the Super Bowl. And unfortunately, that's not always the case. And if that's not the case when we take the field or whatever it may be, I'm thankful for the opportunity to play this game, and I'm not going to ever pass it up. Yeah. You know what's interesting about Dallas, if you start looking at divisions and you start looking at the coaches that are going to win divisions. Mike Vrabel, Sean Pate, perhaps Liam Cohen, who's been a home run and just, you know, Shanahan or McVeigh or Mike McDonald. Tomlin's a legend, and Jerry still goes discount, double check on head coach. The whole thing with the Cowboys is they've done a lot right. But start looking right now, this morning, who's winning these divisions? Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel, Sean Payton, and then even wild card coaches. Could be John Harbaugh, Jim Harbaugh, Kyle Shanahan. Folks, I'm not saying quarterback is less important than coach, but certainly in the Chicago situation or the Jacksonville situation, you have to overcome years of poor culture, and yet Dallas goes cheap on coaches. It's just. It's like one of those things. It's a blind spot for a really smart guy in Jerry Jones.
J. Mack
Yeah. Colin, if I said to you, how many playoff games will Dak Prescott win in the next three years? Okay, now, there's a lot that goes into a draft free agency, but that's probably all that Jerry's gonna be around, like, instrumental with the team. Right. Given his age, will Dak win one playoff game in the next three years?
Colin Cowherd
Yes.
J. Mack
Seriously?
Colin Cowherd
Yeah. One. If you're not going to spend money.
J. Mack
Get to the playoffs to win a playoff game, they ain't getting there this year.
Unrivaled Basketball Advertiser
I.
J. Mack
They got a lot of work to do. In this off season. And the NFC as you talked about, is greatly elevated.
Colin Cowherd
Oh, NFC is better than the AFC this year. I don't know what the NFC vs AFC games are, but eyes roster. The better rosters right now are absolutely NB or on Fox NFC games. They just like that game last night. There's no AFC matchup that would look like the Rams. Seahawks. There is no Bill's Ravens.
J. Mack
Bill's Ravens.
Colin Cowherd
Oh, Bill's roster's not close to that. Not close to that. Good.
J. Mack
So. So the problem with Dallas is Jaden Daniels is going to be healthy next year, okay? And Jared Goff and the Lions are going to find an offensive coordinator. Those two teams are going to be better than Dallas next year. So I mean, Dallas is probably starting this off season like 10th in the NFC. Colin, if we're being real, is that fair? Do you know how big of an uphill climb that is to get to the playoffs, much less win a game?
Colin Cowherd
Also, Jackson darts played well. Better. He'd probably be better in year two.
J. Mack
Probably assuming he beats out Mendoza. But anyway, anyways, I'm just. I like Dak, by the way, this holiday season, I'm thankful for Dak Prescott giving us great sound bites every week. I don't know if any quarterback this year has been better giving us just good sound bites. He sounds awesome. Final story, Colin Drake May of the New England Patriots. Man, he's had a great season. He was in the MVP mix and all of a sudden that loss to the Bills kind of dropped him down a peg. And then Stafford went off last night. Here's Drake May talking about his perspective of the MVP award.
Colin Cowherd
You know, the MVP is, it's obviously one of the big accolades for this league. And it's something that, you know, it's an honor as a player to, you know, earn their award. And I respect all the past MVPs, but I think at the end of the day, you know, winning the super bowl is the biggest thing. And I think it's what kind of makes makes this league go is winning the big one. And that's what you work towards and that's what this game's about. If you. How about this? If you could win one super bowl but never win an MVP or you win four MVPs. Now we know Super Bowls the ultimate prize, but do you think Aaron Rodgers would give up three of his MVPs for another Super Bowl?
J. Mack
Well, as someone who plays in many men's basketball leagues, I would trade every MVP for championships that's undeniable. I think LeBron, any of the superstars would rather be champions than win MVP awards. You're the best in the sport. You would take that in a heartbeat. At least that's my perspective. Are you thinking otherwise or.
Colin Cowherd
No, I, I mean, like Eli Manning, I take his career over Aaron's because I got two super bowl wins. I'm not saying, I'm not saying.
J. Mack
Different discussion.
Colin Cowherd
Yeah. I'm not saying career. He's better. Yeah. I'm saying I. Given the choice of the two. Eli Manning two. And oh, in Super Bowls, beat Brady and Belichick in both. Two of the most iconic throws. Mario Manningham, David Tyree, maybe the two most iconic throws certainly in the class. Like I, to me, I'm about winning the award stuff's nice. Legacy, but the winning thing. I know I'm in the minority here. People would take like a bunch of MVPs.
J. Mack
Why do you think you're in the minority?
Colin Cowherd
Because I think, I think people like awards. I'm not an awards guy who likes.
J. Mack
I mean, we're not talking about an Oscar. By the way, who was the MVP? Who was the MVP of the league 10 years ago? Nobody knows. You start talking who won the Super Bowl? You know, people remember Super Bowls. I don't think they remember MVPs in the NFL the way they, they matter. And like I could not tell you.
Colin Cowherd
Off the top of my head how many Tom Brady has four, three.
J. Mack
I don't even know how many Mahomes has several. But he. We know he's a Super bowl winner. Yeah, I think that's a no brainer. By the way, I don't think Josh Allen's totally done with the mvp. I think he's in the mix. They play the Eagles next week. How about this? I looked at the schedule. There's only two games at 4 o' clock next week. One of them is Giants, Raiders. The other on Fox is Bill's hosting the Eagles.
Colin Cowherd
And if Josh plays great, he's in the mix.
J. Mack
But remember, who votes for this stuff? And you know, they like old guys. Stafford just had a really good game. It wasn't. They didn't lose last night because of Stafford.
Colin Cowherd
Right.
J. Mack
Stafford was tremendous.
Colin Cowherd
The special teams were brutal.
J. Mack
Yeah.
Colin Cowherd
Now, now they did settle for field goals.
J. Mack
No Devonte, but yes.
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Colin Cowherd
Yeah, I mean, that's part of it, but you got to give Seattle defense credit too. It's hard to score in congested areas.
J. Mack
Wait a minute. They gave up 500 some odd yards of.
Colin Cowherd
I can't. Yeah, but they were good at. They were you know, who cares? They gave up field goals more than touchdowns. You got to give Seattle defense credit. Bend, but don't break in the red zone. They forced four field goal attempts. That's a win to me. Okay, J. Mac with the news. Well, that's the news. And thanks for stopping by the herd lie news. I think most fans would disagree with me. I think they take Aaron's career over Eli's and I would just want the other Super Bowl.
eBay Advertiser
I don't know.
Colin Cowherd
I. You know, it'd be an easier decision If Eli had one MVP. Then it'd be an easy one. I'll take one MVP and two Super Bowls over. No MVPs and two Super Bowls. And that's not to diminish what Aaron's done. But it is when you think of Eli Manning like he beat the goat twice in Super Bowls. That's a whole different legacy. That's a. That is Belichick and Brady for 20 years sort of define the league. Who beat him? Eli Manning twice in Super Bowls. That's all time stuff to me. Be sure to catch live editions of the Herd, weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific on Fox Sports Radio, FS1 and the iHeartRadio app.
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Colin Cowherd
All.
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This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat. Everybody showing that school pride game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a win, win, winning combo. No matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
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Colin Cowherd
I can't face one more sunset without you by my side. Come with me and I vow your desires will be my North Star forevermore.
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J. Mack
Max, we got a Big East Big Ten battle on Fox College Hoops Friday as Villanova takes on Wisconsin. It all tips off tonight at 8 Eastern on Fox.
Colin Cowherd
You know, it's, I think one of the things I love and perhaps this is what I love about sports as a whole more than anything. I like when it changes. I'm not a traditionalist. Like I don't watch Bulls anymore and I'm a huge college football fan. There was on one on TV today, it was 27, nothing, you know, and I'm like nobody's going to the games. Like I I just get over stuff pretty fast that way. I'm not a traditionalist person, didn't go to church much as a kid, whatever. I think what's interesting about football and I brought this up before, how valuable is completion percentage anymore? So when it used to be more valuable, do you know what Tom Brady's all time is 64% and in his first six years it was much lower. Matt Stafford 63.5% Brett Favre 62%. Andrew Luck, who I loved 61% now much better offensive coaches, mobility is much more important. People are like Caleb Williams 58 and a half percent. So I just want to read you this. Caleb has improved. He Has a better passer rating this year. More passing yards per game, more passing touchdowns, more rushing touchdowns and more big plays. 20 plus all improvements. More importantly, way fewer sacks. 23 this year. 58 at this time last year. So massive improvement. The Bears offense has also jumped to top five in the league. It was 32nd last year. Caleb now is second in game winning drives and tied for the most fourth quarter quarterback wins. Tied for the most fourth quarter comebacks. Excuse me. So he's much better late in games. He wins more every stat, team stat, personal stat. Up, up, up. Also on third down this year when trailing. That's a big separator. Haves and have nots, seven passing touchdowns. Third down when trailing best in the league, including Stafford and everybody. His passer rating in the league when trailing, 144best in the league. His TD interception ratio on third down when trailing best in the league. His completion percentage when trailing is second best. But he's not real accurate. He's 58%. So my take is I've been on this for like two months. How much does it matter? He's accurate when he needs to be. I used to be a sports anchor. We used to have a joke. When the red light comes on, can you read? When the. When the camera's on, can you get through it and not stumble? Nobody cares about rehearsal. Same with Saturday Night Live and Broadway. When they're in their seats, go time. Are you magic? He is great on third down. He's great. TD interception when it matters. So, you know, I watched him last week, I thought he was great. Robert Mays earlier on, Caleb's accuracy, to.
Robert Mays
Me it's about consistent ball placement. I don't think there was a single throw over that entire first half. And maybe even the game where I'm like, ah, he kind of wants that one back. And you see his ability to drive the ball. That's what he does best. Intermediate over the middle off play action. I'm going to rip it into this window. But what I really liked in the Browns game is that you saw him shaping some touch throws accurately. And if he can start to harness every single club in his bag, that's where a guy with his talent level becomes like, truly scary. And I think we're trending in that direction.
Colin Cowherd
So think about this. Matt Stafford's gonna make the hall of Fame. You get no mobility. He completes 63%. Tom Brady, the Goat. No mobility in the pocket. Sure. Out of the pocket, no. 64%. So like, if those guys are legends without the mobility, I Always say, like, I kind of think the line for Caleb is 611 1/2 percent. That kind of feels like where he kind of needs to be. But I go look at the numbers, team numbers, fourth quarter numbers, when trailing numbers, they're unbelievable. He's just, you know, in basketball we wouldn't even argue this. If you were a great fourth quarter player in basketball, we would not care for a second about your first half numbers. Right? Because in, because in the NBA it's like, well, nobody really hustles until the final five minutes. That's not true. But we wouldn't even argue about it. Same in baseball. If you did not get a hit in your first two at bats all season, but you hit 360 on your third at bat and 390 on your fourth at bat, people would be like clutch. But we lose a lot of sleep on, you know, some of the early scripted stuff. First half, you know, it's just, it's not pretty. I, I don't know. Like I. What we said in the off season and I think you thought this too, this wasn't like, like us coming up with it. The number one thing was, dude, you got to cut down on the sacks for your own health and because it's negative plays, you just got to get out of sacks. Like the other night we watched two against the Steelers. It's like brutal. Forget the incompletions, these awful sacks. Belichick talking about Brady, what's the best thing about him? He didn't take sacks. No negative plays, played in front of the sticks. That was my number one thing I said before this season. I don't care about wins. Get to seven. I'm good. Cut the sacks in half. He's done that, so. And all the other components. Up, up, up, up, up. I think when you look at Caleb Williams numbers when trailing, that to me has always been the have and have not line of demarcation. Everybody's good with a lead. Sam Darnold last night. That's impressive. That's impressive. Well, Sam Zoe was impressive. My bad. All right, final hour. It's a good one. Next.
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What a matchup we got, y'.
Colin Cowherd
All.
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Colin Cowherd
Mmm.
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Episode focus: Colin's Blazing 5 picks for NFL Week 16, in-depth analysis of rising star Caleb Williams, a detailed conversation with Robert Mays (The Athletic), and key storylines around teams and coaches at the business end of the season.
This episode dives into Colin Cowherd's signature Blazing 5 NFL picks, then transitions into a sharp football conversation with Robert Mays (The Athletic). The focus lands on Sam Darnold's resurgence, the evolution and value of quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, pressing team narratives (notably the Bills, Niners, Steelers, and Rams), and closes with a lively debate on MVPs versus Super Bowl wins and the ever-shifting importance of quarterback "clutch" stats.
“Three favorites, a couple of underdogs on our Blazing Five picks.” – Colin (09:35)
Robert Mays Interview Start (09:51–14:32)
- Colin’s Take (09:51):
- Robert Mays (10:39):
“There are going to be a couple moments every game where it’s like, oh man, Sam… But then you watch what he did on those final couple drives… If you’re going to ride the highs, you’ve got to endure the lows.” (10:39)
(11:20–12:49)
“When you put them in third and defiant pass... they’re just not quite as dynamic… Seahawks deserve a ton of credit for really bowing up against the run.” – Robert Mays (12:06)
On Caleb Williams:
“He looks so much more comfortable within the offense... The Browns game was probably the best I’ve seen from him as a pro. To me it’s about consistent ball placement… If he can start to harness every single club in his bag, that’s where a guy with his talent level becomes truly scary.” (13:18)
On Bo Nix:
“If he’s going to have that level of ambition as a passer… and bring the other stuff, that was the last thing I wanted to see… Him being able to do that last week, that’s a box checked in my opinion.” (14:32)
(15:38–17:45)
“What they were in the second half against the Patriots is exactly why they’re so scary… If you have creativity and unpredictability on defense combined with what Josh Allen can give you, that’s why I still think the Bills are probably the scariest team in that conference.” (16:16)
(17:45–19:33)
“The defense is where I just have my concerns... They’re just too banged up… this was supposed to be a transitionary year.” (18:36)
(19:33–22:40)
“I still think that overall the offense is a little bit too limited for them to give anybody any problems as they get into the playoffs.” (20:13)
“A couple of weak points on the Rams defense I’m still worried about... Special teams is a real thing. The Seahawks have been one of the best special teams units in the NFL.” (21:33)
(22:40–24:33)
(30:13–33:12)
“I think he’s once in a generation coach… He pulls it all together.” (30:32)
(33:12–36:01)
“I consider everything… I think in big games I want a guy that can pick up first downs with his feet. When I look at a coach, what are you overcoming?” (32:19)
(37:25–41:09)
Colin: “I’m about winning—the award stuff’s nice. Legacy, but the winning thing… I’d take one MVP and two Super Bowls over no MVPs and two Super Bowls. That’s not to diminish what Aaron’s done, but it is when you think of Eli Manning—he beat the goat twice in Super Bowls. That’s all-time stuff to me.” (41:10)
(46:58–53:34)
“He [Caleb Williams] is great on third down… He wins more, every stat, up, up, up. I’ve been on this for months… how much does [traditional accuracy] matter? He’s accurate when he needs to be.” (46:58)
“If you’re going to ride the highs, you’ve got to endure the lows. And I kind of just think that’s what the Sam Darnold experience is right now.” — Robert Mays (10:39)
“He looks so much more comfortable… It’s about consistent ball placement… If he can start to harness every single club in his bag, that’s where a guy with his talent level becomes like, truly scary.” — Robert Mays (13:18)
“When the camera’s on, can you get through it and not stumble? Nobody cares about rehearsal… He is great on third down… That, to me, has always been the line of demarcation: Everybody’s good with a lead.” — Colin Cowherd (46:58)
“Much easier to have Stan Kroenke as a head coach than the McCaskeys... What Ben’s overcoming, the history he had to rebuild, the culture? I think Ben’s… maybe my pick for coach of the year.” — Colin Cowherd (32:08)
“If the Rams got to the Super Bowl and lost and it was special teams blunders… Usually you’re not good enough to get to a Super Bowl if you have bad special teams.” — Colin Cowherd (23:05)
Opinionated, fast-paced, and richly analytical. Colin blends data, bold takes, and anecdote, while Robert Mays supports the dialogue with measured film-based breakdowns and advanced analytics. The interplay with J. Mack adds a casual, sometimes humorous, and always practical fan perspective.
Summary by PodcastGPT