The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Hour 2) - December 19, 2025

Episode focus: Colin's Blazing 5 picks for NFL Week 16, in-depth analysis of rising star Caleb Williams, a detailed conversation with Robert Mays (The Athletic), and key storylines around teams and coaches at the business end of the season.

Overview

This episode dives into Colin Cowherd's signature Blazing 5 NFL picks, then transitions into a sharp football conversation with Robert Mays (The Athletic). The focus lands on Sam Darnold's resurgence, the evolution and value of quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, pressing team narratives (notably the Bills, Niners, Steelers, and Rams), and closes with a lively debate on MVPs versus Super Bowl wins and the ever-shifting importance of quarterback "clutch" stats.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Colin’s Blazing 5 Picks for Week 16 (04:55–09:51)

• Colin quickly recaps his strong betting year (57%) and rolls through his weekly picks.
  • Packers at Bears: Likes Bears at home, citing a strong record (8-2 last 10), stout defense (#6 overall), limited turnovers from Caleb Williams, and a surging run game. Bears to win/cover 27–23.
  • Vikings at Giants: Likes Giants as a home underdog, focusing on their improved run game and rookie QB Jackson Dart's stability. Giants win 28–27.
  • Bengals at Dolphins: His favorite pick—Cincinnati -4.5. Trusts late-season Joe Burrow over Miami's unsure QB situation.
  • Patriots at Ravens: Backs the Patriots on the road, highlighting Drake Maye’s consistency and doubts about the Ravens’ home record and back-end defense. Patriots to win outright.
  • 49ers at Colts: On the Niners -5.5, praising their win streak, healthy offense, and a vulnerable Colts team led by an aging Philip Rivers. Niners win and cover, 34–24.

“Three favorites, a couple of underdogs on our Blazing Five picks.” – Colin (09:35)

2. Debrief: Sam Darnold’s Unique NFL Arc

Robert Mays Interview Start (09:51–14:32)

- Colin’s Take (09:51):

• Praises Sam Darnold for his resilience and “short memory,” citing a stat: 30–9 in his last 39 starts with four teams—the first ever to win 12 games in back-to-back seasons for different franchises.
• Compares Darnold’s recovery from mistakes favorably to other QBs: “I kind of loved what Darnold did last night.”

- Robert Mays (10:39):

• Emphasizes Darnold’s "mental toughness" and emerging maturity, highlighting the volatility but special moments he brings:

  “There are going to be a couple moments every game where it’s like, oh man, Sam… But then you watch what he did on those final couple drives… If you’re going to ride the highs, you’ve got to endure the lows.” (10:39)

3. Quarterback Evolution: Josh Allen, Stafford, and The Fourth Quarter Test

(11:20–12:49)

• Colin argues he’d pick Josh Allen over Stafford for MVP, citing Allen’s unscripted “make-it-happen” ability in crunch time, which he says the Rams lack in their stalling fourth quarters.
• Robert agrees the Rams’ identity is heavily tied to rushing success:

  “When you put them in third and defiant pass... they’re just not quite as dynamic… Seahawks deserve a ton of credit for really bowing up against the run.” – Robert Mays (12:06)

4. Scouting Caleb Williams & Bo Nix: Progress and Analytics

On Caleb Williams:

• Colin and Robert dissect Williams’ first season evolution.
• Robert notes:

  “He looks so much more comfortable within the offense... The Browns game was probably the best I’ve seen from him as a pro. To me it’s about consistent ball placement… If he can start to harness every single club in his bag, that’s where a guy with his talent level becomes truly scary.” (13:18)

On Bo Nix:

• Colin references split NFL opinions; Robert digs into the Broncos’ conservative design but credits Nix for “checking the box” last week by hitting on big downfield throws under pressure:

  “If he’s going to have that level of ambition as a passer… and bring the other stuff, that was the last thing I wanted to see… Him being able to do that last week, that’s a box checked in my opinion.” (14:32)

• Analytical tidbit: The Broncos ranked 28th in throws short of the sticks, indicating their previous aversion to risk until Nix’s breakout game.

5. AFC, the Bills Mystique & Quarterback Trust

(15:38–17:45)

• With AFC stars sidelined or struggling, Colin and Robert both still see the Bills as “scary” due to Allen’s upside and the team’s dynamic, if inconsistent, creativity.
• Robert:

  “What they were in the second half against the Patriots is exactly why they’re so scary… If you have creativity and unpredictability on defense combined with what Josh Allen can give you, that’s why I still think the Bills are probably the scariest team in that conference.” (16:16)

6. Shanahan’s Niners: Coaching Triumphs, Defensive Doubts

(17:45–19:33)

• Colin marvels at the coaching around the Niners, stating “Nothing makes sense,” given their injuries and shifting roster.
• Robert is high on their offense “with 60% of the guys they need.” However:

  “The defense is where I just have my concerns... They’re just too banged up… this was supposed to be a transitionary year.” (18:36)

7. Steelers, Rams, and Seahawks: Ceiling, Special Teams & Clutchness

(19:33–22:40)

• Steelers: Robert sets their ceiling lower than the Niners due to a limited offense:

  “I still think that overall the offense is a little bit too limited for them to give anybody any problems as they get into the playoffs.” (20:13)

• Rams vs. Seahawks:
  • Robert gives Seattle the edge due to a better defense and elite special teams, a persistent Rams weakness:

    “A couple of weak points on the Rams defense I’m still worried about... Special teams is a real thing. The Seahawks have been one of the best special teams units in the NFL.” (21:33)

8. Rams’ Special Teams: A Fatal Flaw?

(22:40–24:33)

• Colin and J. Mack discuss whether special teams will doom the Rams’ playoff hopes, referencing recent in-game blunders and theorizing on the Seahawks’ strategic moves to exploit this weakness.

9. Chicago Bears Spotlight: Ben Johnson & a Resurgent Run Game

(30:13–33:12)

• J. Mack and Colin praise OC Ben Johnson’s unique play-calling and cultural rebuild.
• Mike Martz clip:

  “I think he’s once in a generation coach… He pulls it all together.” (30:32)

• Discussion about the Bears’ huge leap in rushing production and Johnson’s candidacy for Coach of the Year—emphasizing that he’s maximizing a team with, arguably, the weakest starting postseason QB in the NFC.

10. Coaches vs. Quarterbacks in Team Success

(33:12–36:01)

• Colin maintains a coach’s ability to overcome organizational or cultural challenges is underrated in modern NFL narratives.

  “I consider everything… I think in big games I want a guy that can pick up first downs with his feet. When I look at a coach, what are you overcoming?” (32:19)

• Cowboys example: The pitfalls of going “cheap” on coaching compared to rivals like Johnson and Payton.

11. The MVP vs. Super Bowl Debate

(37:25–41:09)

• Colin and J. Mack debate whether top QBs (Rodgers, Eli Manning) would trade MVPs for rings.

  Colin: “I’m about winning—the award stuff’s nice. Legacy, but the winning thing… I’d take one MVP and two Super Bowls over no MVPs and two Super Bowls. That’s not to diminish what Aaron’s done, but it is when you think of Eli Manning—he beat the goat twice in Super Bowls. That’s all-time stuff to me.” (41:10)

12. Quarterback Stats that Matter: Is Accuracy Overrated?

(46:58–53:34)

• Colin argues that while old-school completion percentage used to define QBs, clutch stats—especially on third down or when trailing—matter far more now.

  “He [Caleb Williams] is great on third down… He wins more, every stat, up, up, up. I’ve been on this for months… how much does [traditional accuracy] matter? He’s accurate when he needs to be.” (46:58)

• Backs this up with comparisons to Brady and Stafford (career ~64% completions) and highlights Caleb Williams’ massive improvement in sacks taken and late-game performance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Darnold’s volatility:

  “If you’re going to ride the highs, you’ve got to endure the lows. And I kind of just think that’s what the Sam Darnold experience is right now.” — Robert Mays (10:39)

• On Caleb Williams’ evolution:

  “He looks so much more comfortable… It’s about consistent ball placement… If he can start to harness every single club in his bag, that’s where a guy with his talent level becomes like, truly scary.” — Robert Mays (13:18)

• On defining QB performance:

  “When the camera’s on, can you get through it and not stumble? Nobody cares about rehearsal… He is great on third down… That, to me, has always been the line of demarcation: Everybody’s good with a lead.” — Colin Cowherd (46:58)

• On team-building and coaching:

  “Much easier to have Stan Kroenke as a head coach than the McCaskeys... What Ben’s overcoming, the history he had to rebuild, the culture? I think Ben’s… maybe my pick for coach of the year.” — Colin Cowherd (32:08)

• On special teams destiny:

  “If the Rams got to the Super Bowl and lost and it was special teams blunders… Usually you’re not good enough to get to a Super Bowl if you have bad special teams.” — Colin Cowherd (23:05)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Blazing 5 Picks: 04:55–09:51
• Sam Darnold Discussion: 09:51–11:20
• QB Evolution (Allen/Stafford): 11:20–12:49
• Caleb Williams/Bo Nix Development: 12:49–15:38
• Bills & AFC Parity Analysis: 15:38–17:45
• Niners’ Coaching/Defensive Issues: 17:45–19:33
• Steelers/Rams/Seahawks Comparisons: 19:33–22:40
• Special Teams Discourse: 22:40–24:33
• Bears/Ben Johnson Commentary: 30:13–33:12
• Coaching Value in NFL: 33:12–36:01
• MVP vs. Super Bowl Debate: 37:25–41:09
• QB Stats: Accuracy vs. Clutch: 46:58–53:34

Tone & Style

Opinionated, fast-paced, and richly analytical. Colin blends data, bold takes, and anecdote, while Robert Mays supports the dialogue with measured film-based breakdowns and advanced analytics. The interplay with J. Mack adds a casual, sometimes humorous, and always practical fan perspective.

Perfect For Listeners Who...

• Want a quick but insightful NFL betting preview (Blazing 5)
• Are interested in the nuances of quarterback development
• Follow coaching trends and value organizational culture in sports
• Love debates about legacy, awards, and what really matters for players and teams
• Appreciate discussion blending old-school stats with modern analytical approaches

Summary by PodcastGPT