The Herd with Colin Cowherd — Hour 2: NFL Teams on the Rise and Fall, with Nick Wright

Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Colin Cowherd (voice often referred to as Matt Rogers in this transcript, but episode context makes it clear this is Cowherd)
Guests: Nick Wright, panel with Bowen Yang
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode centers on a spirited debate around the NFL landscape post-Super Bowl, focusing on Cowherd’s "Way Too Early: Five Up, Five Down"—predicting five NFL franchises on the rise and five facing setbacks for the 2026 season. Cowherd is joined by Nick Wright for insight on these forecasts, discussion of quarterback futures (notably Sam Darnold), coaching evaluations, and a crossover into NBA trade talk, centering on the state of the Lakers.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Five NFL Teams Trending Up and Down

[02:40–11:13]

Five Teams Trending Up

• New York Giants:

  • Cowherd predicts the Giants double their win total. Their lines are solid ("top 10 O-line, top 10 D-line"), they endured poor luck in one-score games, and rookie QB Jackson Dart should thrive under a "culture-setter" coach.
  • Quote: "Giants are my pick to double their win total. They'll look different by mid September." (03:13)

• Washington Commanders:

  • Improvement expected with Jaden Daniels back, cap space, and new leadership in Dan Quinn. "They're the oldest team in the NFL" but get a fresh start after many close losses.

• Detroit Lions:

  • A bounce-back to 11-12 wins predicted, aided by Drew Petzing (OC from Arizona), stable core players, and a well-run front office.
  • Quote: "They're going to get their mojo back. They struggled at OC... this is still an elite front office that drafts well." (03:50)

• Los Angeles Chargers:

  • Chargers poised to finally "feel different" under Mike McDaniel, with injured offensive tackles returning, high cap space, and the hope for an offense-first identity.
  • Quote: "You will feel very early in the season, 'Oh, this team could win the Super Bowl.' Whether they do or not, they'll have a totally different feel..." (04:40)

• Kansas City Chiefs:

  • A correction after an unlucky season in close games. Continued faith in Mahomes and a belief they'll rebound from last year’s 6-11 record.

Five Teams Trending Down

• Houston Texans:

  • Regression coming, especially in-division, citing their lack of playoff wins and C.J. Stroud's declining play: "I love C.J. Stroud. I think he throws the prettiest ball... but he has regressed." (05:33)

• New England Patriots:

  • Cowherd predicts a snapback after a soft schedule, aging O-line, and the loss in the Super Bowl.

• San Francisco 49ers:

  • Injury concerns for Kittle, age catching up with Bosa and McCaffrey. Losses at receiver.
  • Quote: "They did it with smoke and mirrors last year... I don't think they're a 12-5 team." (07:07)

• Dallas Cowboys:

  • A likely unraveling due to cap issues, misallocated resources, and franchise management: "How can you be this big of a mess?... Hire a real GM. Pay big money for a coach." (07:50)

• Philadelphia Eagles:

  • Too many coordinator changes, aging O-line, and doubts about Hurts' leadership and passing ability.
  • Quote: "I think the book's in on Jalen Hurts... I think GMs take Darnold over Jalen Hurts." (09:29)

2. Nick Wright Joins: Debate and Analysis

[11:13–21:36]

Reaction to Five Up, Five Down

• Wright points out: nearly all teams Cowherd has trending up missed the playoffs or had major injuries last year, requesting rationale for not including Baltimore or Cincinnati.
• Cowherd explains concerns about roster holes and a tougher upcoming AFC.

AFC Realities

• "Patriots had the softest schedule in this century... next year, it’s road games against playoff teams." – Nick Wright (13:10)

Quarterback Hierarchy: The Sam Darnold Discussion

[14:20–17:44]

• Lingering question: What to make of Sam Darnold’s future after a Super Bowl run?
• Both Cowherd and Wright favor Darnold over Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy.
  • Quote, Wright: "If Purdy and Darnold are on the market, every GM's taking Darnold. Bigger, stronger, better arm, didn't have a turnover for a month against the NFC playoffs." (14:31)
  • Quote, Wright: "This is one thing that you can say, everyone was wrong but me, Colin Cowherd. You never relented." (14:50)
• Evaluating Darnold’s performance: “He led the league in turnovers. And then in week 18, with the one seat on the line, didn’t turn it over. First playoff game, didn’t turn it over...” (16:49)

Defensive Coaches and the Mike Macdonald Effect

[17:44–21:36]

• Cowherd and Wright discuss the lack of recognition for top defensive minds vs. offensive ones.
• Macdonald's defenses have stymied young QBs; lack East Coast publicity.
  • Quote, Wright: “Quarterbacks in their first game, first time seeing his defense: 10 and 33, less than 16 points per game.” (19:04)
• Jury out on whether Macdonald is the peer of top offensive coaches in Seattle.

3. NBA Trade and Lakers Talk

[21:36–26:08]

• Discussion pivots to the Lakers’ defensive struggles and lack of urgency at the trade deadline; LeBron’s future; Lakers may lose out again due to management paralysis.
  • Quote, Wright: "They are in back-to-back years, punting on a chance to win the title with prime Luka Doncic... To not try to fix what's obviously a fatal flaw—no defenders—is baffling." (24:13)
• LeBron will likely leave gracefully at end of contract; missed opportunities by Lakers front office.

4. More NFL and Draft Chatter, News Updates

[35:05–44:43]

• Cooper Kupp’s legacy debated after another strong Super Bowl; skepticism about "Hall of Fame" talk due to brief statistical peak.
  • Quote, Yang: “Let’s pump the brakes on Hall of Fame for Cooper Kupp. And I like him a lot.” (38:41)
• Early 2026 NFL Draft discussion (mock drafts, needs for Giants, other teams).
• Lakers’ front office and GM Rob Pelinka under fire; “This is a fantasy offense... Regular season team... Check in April, May.” (43:04-43:41)
• Quick hits on NFL roster needs, pending free agents, and expected movement.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On the Chiefs’ bounce-back:
  "They're going to be fine. They're going to improve. 6 and 11, my guess becomes 11 and 6." — Matt Rogers [05:17]

• On Cowboys meltdown:
  "They're spending an NFL high $70 million on their interior defensive line and an NFL low $6 million on their edge rushers. How are they this big of a mess?" — Matt Rogers [07:50]

• On Darnold's perception shift:
  "You never relented in believing this was possible. And no one else thought it was possible. So I will... give you full credit." — Nick Wright to Colin Cowherd [14:50]

• On AFC parity:
  "The AFC, let's be fair, had a down year. It's going to be noticeably healthier and better next year." — Matt Rogers [12:25]

• On defensive coaching bias:
  "Up until 15 days ago, Kevin O’Connell was considered far above Mike Macdonald... because he's the quarterback whisperer guy." — Nick Wright [20:04]

• On Lakers stasis:
  "They're not a championship level team because... they've gotta score 135 to win against good teams. You're not going to win three rounds that way, let alone four." — Nick Wright [25:49]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment Description | |-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:40–11:13 | “Five Up, Five Down” NFL teams for 2026: full rundown and explanations | | 11:13–13:10 | Nick Wright’s reaction, debate over teams Cowherd omitted from the trending up group | | 13:10–14:20 | Patriots’ challenges ahead, AFC schedule analysis | | 14:20–17:44 | The Sam Darnold future & QB pecking order discussion | | 17:44–21:36 | Coaching trends, Mike Macdonald defensive bias, NFL coaching landscape | | 21:36–26:08 | NBA/Lakers segment: Trades, LeBron's legacy, Lakers front office strategy | | 35:05–38:41 | NFL News: Super Bowl reviews, Cooper Kupp legacy, draft combine chatter | | 38:54–44:43 | Early draft talk: Needs, prospects, Giants, Chiefs, Cowboys, etc.; Lakers' front office on the hot seat |

Speaker Attribution

• Matt Rogers: (Hosting, representing Colin Cowherd’s usual role; main analyst for "Five Up, Five Down", NFL trends)
• Nick Wright: (Guest, reacts to and debates Cowherd/Rogers’ team rankings, QB evaluations)
• Bowen Yang: (Panel/sidekick, offers news breaks, comic asides, draft and NBA insights)

Summary Flow & Tone

The episode is classic "The Herd": lively, opinionated, fast-moving, and bold, blending data, intuition, and bravado. Cowherd (as Matt Rogers) lays out his post-Super Bowl NFL landscape predictions, Nick Wright pushes back constructively, and the crew pivots, as always, to whatever’s hot in sports—rambling into the NBA and the ever-confounding Lakers. The tone is candid, knowledgeable, and debate-driven, with Cowherd’s self-assured takes and Nick’s sharp, often tongue-in-cheek counterpoints.

For listeners who missed the episode:
You’ll get all the core arguments around NFL teams poised to surprise/disappoint next year, evolving quarterback hierarchies, and why the AFC is suddenly so perilous. The episode also serves up nuanced discussion about the value of defensive coaching in today’s analytic-leaning media, plus a hard look at the Lakers’ inertia despite having stars. If you want to know which NFL teams are set to rise or fall and why media darlings like Sam Darnold’s futures have flipped, this episode is essential.