The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Hour 3

Date: December 15, 2025
Episode Focus:
NFL Playoff Picture, Sean Payton's Surprising Success in Denver, Steelers’ Stagnation, Franchise QB Talk, and College Football Standouts

Episode Overview

In this episode, Colin Cowherd and Jason McIntyre dive deep into the evolving playoff picture for both the NFC and AFC, analyze the remarkable turnaround the Denver Broncos have experienced under Sean Payton, examine concerns about the Pittsburgh Steelers’ direction, and discuss emergent college quarterback stars and their NFL prospects. Special guest Mike DeFebo joins to provide an inside look at the Steelers’ situation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFC Playoff Picture Analysis

[00:32 - 05:30]

• Colin highlights the current NFC standings, noting unexpected clinches and injuries shaking up seed preferences.
• Main narrative: Green Bay’s recent injuries (Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Micah Parsons out) have made them a more favorable opponent than Detroit, who now appears as a more dangerous wildcard due to their healthy roster and playmakers (Gibbs, Hutchinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown).
• Colin: "I'd rather face Green Bay today than Detroit with all that firepower." [03:42]

Memorable Moment:

• “So Detroit with Green Bay's injuries to me would be the tougher matchup for anybody in the NFC playoff picture.” – Colin Cowherd [04:30]

2. AFC Playoff Picture & Confidence Rankings

[04:45 - 06:40]

• AFC does not feel as “sharp at the top” as the NFC.
• Denver, under Sean Payton, clinches a playoff berth despite Russell Wilson’s contract still looming over the cap—a testament to Payton's coaching.
• Houston and rookie QB C.J. Stroud are seen as a dangerous lower seed, touted as the “one I trust” after Denver. Skepticism remains regarding the Colts and Buffalo’s defense.

Notable Quote:

• “How do they have a roster this good on both sides?...That is all-time coaching. Sean Payton...guy’s great. First ballot guy.” – Colin Cowherd [06:25]

3. News Rundown: Wild Bills-Patriots Game & Team Adjustments

[11:19 - 14:26]

• Jason (“J Mac”) recaps Buffalo’s shocking comeback from a 21-0 deficit to beat the Patriots 35-31.
• Bills credited for effective defensive halftime adjustments (“just said, screw it, we’re going to blitz the hell out of [Patriots QB] Drake May”).
• Patriots exposed for league-worst performance in red zone defense.
• Bills praised as best second-half team in the NFL – seen as a dangerous, surging playoff entrant.

Notable Stats:

• “The Patriots are dead last in red zone stoppage. Defensively, you get in the red zone, it’s like touchdown after touchdown. That’s not going to bode well for the playoffs.” – Jason McIntyre [13:10]

• “By some advanced metrics, the Bills are the best second half team in the NFL.” – J Mac [13:22]

4. Denver Broncos’ Deceptive Strength

[13:44 - 14:08]

• Denver recognized as more complete and deceptively “hole-free” than Houston or Buffalo.
• “Denver does not have a hole.” – Colin Cowherd [13:51]
• Payton’s coaching and "clever" game plans praised for orchestrating comeback wins and maximizing limited roster resources.

5. Quarterback Health & Maturity: Jackson Dart’s Resilience

[14:26 - 17:05]

• Jackson Dart (college QB) addresses recurring concussion checks and responds to concerns about his playing style and off-field persona.
• Colin admits he underestimated Dart, affirming him as a legitimate franchise quarterback prospect, lauding how he uses his athleticism constructively during early development.

Quotes:

• “There are certain things I will accept. One of them is you’re going to have a hard time reading defenses your first two years in the league. ... I’m okay with young quarterbacks throwing picks. Year three, four you got to bring those down.” – Colin Cowherd [16:00]
• “I think he’s a franchise quarterback. He’s better than I thought. I gotta give it up to him. Damn.” – Colin Cowherd [16:56]

6. QB Debate: Drafting for Upgrades

[17:05 - 18:05]

• Jason (“J Mac”) jokes about Colin handing out “franchise quarterback tags like Santa hands out Christmas presents.”
• Debate: Whether the Giants should draft top prospect Mendoza even if Dart is available; consensus is that you always upgrade if a transcendent prospect is available.

Quote:

• “It’s called upgrading to a better star. ... Mendoza is a every three or four year prospect—size, arm, grateful, humble, great family.” – Jason McIntyre [17:31 - 17:50]

7. Heisman Winner: Mendoza’s Star Power

[18:05 - 19:41]

• Mendoza, now at Indiana, wins the Heisman Trophy in convincing fashion after transferring from Cal.
• His unflappable demeanor, high intelligence (second business school), and elite play against Ohio State position him as the leading franchise QB in the next NFL draft.
• Jason and Colin agree that Indiana, with Mendoza, is a national title contender.

Quote:

• “Most great quarterbacks...one of the things I loved about Andrew Luck, little bit of a nerd. I am okay my quarterback not being cool.” – Colin Cowherd [18:56]

8. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tomlin’s Hot Seat & Defensive Identity

Guest: Mike DeFebo, The Athletic

[25:40 - 33:07]

• Pittsburgh’s relationship with head coach Mike Tomlin dissected; Tomlin’s job security is high due to ownership culture, but approval rating “has never been lower.”
• Tomlin’s contract and the Rooney family’s coaching philosophy mean any split would likely require Tomlin himself walking away, not being fired.
• The Steelers’ supposed strengths – defense and rushing offense – have become weaknesses, with declining production and personnel aging out of peak form.
• Young players and ownership’s faith in Tomlin still hold, but urgency is rising due to playoff drought.
• Tomlin’s reluctance to move on from longtime defensive stalwarts (e.g., T.J. Watt) may be holding the team back as they struggle to transition.

Quotes:

• “There’s a very big difference between his approval rating and his job security. ... Mike Tomlin is signed through the 2027 season.” – Mike DeFebo [26:13]
• “If the Steelers had to do it over again, I think that they would wait out Aaron Rodgers and ultimately sign him.” – Mike DeFebo [27:52]
• “So in a lot of cases, they’ve leaned on Aaron Rodgers and his right arm. He hasn’t been perfect... but considering he’s 42 years old... it’s been as good as they could have expected.” – Mike DeFebo [28:30]

Steelers-Dolphins Preview

• Miami’s dominant rushing attack vs. Pittsburgh’s struggling run defense: “Last time they were in Acrisure Stadium, the Buffalo Bill set a new record for an opponent with 249 rushing yards.” – Mike DeFebo [33:15]

9. Team Building Trends & Weather Adaptability

[34:32 - 36:55]

• Colin contrasts the philosophies of Green Bay (offensive innovation) and Pittsburgh (defensive loyalty).
• Chicago’s roster, built for cold weather and playoff football, compared favorably against Pittsburgh’s outdated approach.
• Power run games and strong offensive lines will be decisive in the closing weeks.

Quote:

• “There’s never been a warm weather dynasty in football. ... The heart of the NFL is December 15th to early February. Chicago...are built for cold weather. ... Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, 30th in rushing on offense since week 10.” – Colin Cowherd [36:32]

10. NFC North Outlook & Playoff Projections

[38:08 - 38:38]

• Chicago’s playoff outlook improves as Green Bay reels from injuries.
• Bears in position to secure No. 2 seed and host either a diminished Green Bay or Detroit.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “I’d rather face Green Bay today than Detroit with all that firepower.” – Colin Cowherd [03:42]
• “How do they have a roster this good on both sides?...That is all-time coaching. Sean Payton...guy’s great. First ballot guy.” – Colin Cowherd [06:25]
• “The Patriots are dead last in red zone stoppage. Defensively, you get in the red zone, it’s like touchdown after touchdown. That’s not going to bode well for the playoffs.” – Jason McIntyre [13:10]
• “I think he’s a franchise quarterback. He’s better than I thought. I gotta give it up to him. Damn.” – Colin Cowherd on Jackson Dart [16:56]
• “Most great quarterbacks...one of the things I loved about Andrew Luck, little bit of a nerd. I am okay my quarterback not being cool.” – Colin Cowherd [18:56]
• “There’s a very big difference between [Tomlin's] approval rating and his job security.” – Mike DeFebo [26:13]
• “Last time they were in Acrisure Stadium, the Buffalo Bill set a new record for an opponent with 249 rushing yards.” – Mike DeFebo [33:15]
• “There’s never been a warm weather dynasty in football. ... The heart of the NFL is December 15th to early February.” – Colin Cowherd [36:36]

Flow & Tone

Colin maintains his trademark blend of assertive analysis mixed with storytelling, sharp opinions, and a touch of dry humor. Jason McIntyre (“J Mac”) interjects quick stats, challenges assumptions, and pokes fun at both storylines and Colin himself, keeping the mood lively and conversational. Guest Mike DeFebo brings measured, on-the-ground reporting to ground the discourse about the Steelers.

Episode Takeaways

• The playoff picture is fluid, with rosters and injuries causing big shifts in seeding desirability.
• Denver has become an AFC dark horse thanks to Sean Payton’s coaching wizardry.
• Bills, despite flaws, are the AFC’s most dangerous second-half team.
• The Steelers exemplify a franchise trapped between tradition and adaptation, with mounting pressure on Tomlin.
• Discussion of quarterback play pivots between pragmatic player development advice and the lure of transcendent, can’t-miss prospects like Mendoza.
• The NFL postseason will likely be shaped by teams that are built for, and can adapt to, winter weather slugfests.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode is a comprehensive state-of-the-league check-in with plenty of forward-looking playoff analysis and insightful commentary on coaching, roster construction, and quarterback value.