The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Hour 3 – Too Many Draft Mistakes by the Lakers? Is Caleb Downs a Fit for the Giants?

Date: February 16, 2026
Guests: Jason Timpf, John Middelkoff, Albert Breer

Episode Overview

In this engaging third hour, Colin Cowherd is joined by basketball analyst and podcaster Jason Timpf to break down the state of NBA draft development, the persistent issue of tanking, and especially the current and future challenges facing the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Later, NFL analyst John Middelkoff joins to discuss the upcoming NFL Draft, the value of safety Caleb Downs as a prospect, trade rumors involving Max Crosby, and Michael Jordan’s Daytona 500 victory as a NASCAR team owner. The episode is rich with honest analysis, sharp criticism of NBA front offices, and forward-looking insights about team-building in professional sports.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. American NBA Draft Misses and Player Development (03:53–07:23)

• Jason Timpf highlights a decade of underachieving top American draft picks:
  Players such as Ben Simmons, Zion Williamson, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Markelle Fultz, Deandre Ayton, and Ja Morant are specifically cited as failing to reach their perceived potential.
  • “Every single one of those guys were huge pedigree, huge potential guys who all to varying degrees underachieved. And I'd argue six of those seven have been straight up busts.” (Jason Timpf, 04:39)
• Reasons behind underachievement:
  • A “race to get that first payday” and lack of intrinsic competitive drive
  • Work ethic and development issues (e.g., “Ja Morant has straight up become a worse jump shooter every single season over the last four or five seasons. He's just not putting in the work.” – 04:11)
  • Lack of college development - G-League route not fostering the same competitiveness or skills
• Contrast with recent promising talents:
  Players like Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, and Cooper Flagg are held up as encouraging signs for U.S. basketball talent.

2. The Problem of NBA Tanking & League Structure (05:55–08:59)

• Colin and Jason debate the intractability of tanking:
  • Colin notes that the NBA has become a “draft and development league,” limiting the options to rebuild via means other than tanking.
  • Jason suggests that as long as elite prospects exist, teams will find incentive to tank, but also stresses that consistently successful franchises (like San Antonio or OKC) do much more than lose games, citing organizational structure and culture.
  • “There isn't a good solution... If you abolish the draft, you’re going to have every agency and sponsor try to pressure and drive these guys toward big markets. I don't think that would be good for competitive balance.” (Jason Timpf, 08:21)
  • Jason offers a potential fix: flattening draft lottery odds for all non-playoff teams to prevent rewarding bottom-feeding, though he admits there’s no perfect solution.

3. Evaluating NBA Title Contenders & The Knicks' Ceiling (08:59–10:52)

• Jason’s Top 5 Contenders:
  Oklahoma City, Denver, Cleveland, Minnesota Timberwolves, and San Antonio Spurs—not the Knicks.
• Why Not the Knicks?
  Jason acknowledges the Knicks’ internal improvement and better offensive system, but singles out defensive issues, specifically referencing Karl-Anthony Towns:
  • “There is a huge difference between being a physically limited defender and a mistake-making defender. A mistake-making defender cannot be planned for… he’s just a very sloppy, mistake-prone defender and you can’t make mistakes when the margins are that small in the NBA playoffs.” (Jason Timpf, 10:16)
• The rest of the league’s improvement also factors into their outside status among contenders.

4. The Lakers’ Roster Failures: Drafts, Depth, and Defensive Woes (15:29–18:38)

• Colin and Jason on the Lakers' persistent issues:
  • Colin criticizes the Lakers for being “an uneven franchise” with a poorly constructed roster lacking enough three-point shooters or strong defenders.
  • Jason is blunt in his assessment of Lakers GM Rob Pelinka:
    • “There have just been too many misses. Draft misses. Like wasting first round picks on Jalen Hood-Schifino and Dalton Knecht and getting nothing out of those guys. Can't even play them or they're out of the league.”
    • “They need three new starters. LeBron's going to be leaving. You need three new starters and they need to build out a bench. They have nobody on the roster who is both a good defender and a good catch and shoot player. Literally not a single one.” (Jason Timpf, 17:49)
  • Jason contends the only hope for the Lakers is an unlikely playoff run fueled by LeBron, Luka, and Austin all hitting peak form and staying healthy.

5. Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga and Missed Opportunities Between Eras (18:38–21:22)

• Colin probes the failed Kuminga experiment and its roots:
  Is the blame on Warriors’ system, Curry’s gravitational pull, or Kuminga’s development?
• Jason says the front office overvalued future potential at the expense of maximizing Steph Curry's current window:
  • “Joe Lacob looked at Kuminga and he saw a star. And this is one of the most frequent issues that you see — the tantalizing potential over the realistic outcomes.” (Jason Timpf, 20:31)
  • Jason suggests that refusing to trade young assets like Kuminga for win-now pieces (Siakam, Anunoby) in Curry’s prime was a fatal error.
  • “They always toed that line and tried to play both eras and the future era ended up being nothing. And now the current era looks like it’s running out of time.” (Jason Timpf, 21:09)

6. NFL Draft Preview: Caleb Downs, Positional Value & Giants Needs (28:36–34:00)

• John Middelkoff and Colin discuss the Giants’ 5th overall pick and new coach John Harbaugh’s openness to drafting Caleb Downs, a star safety:
  • “We favor Hall of Fame safeties... That guy would be just fine with me. I'd take him in a second.” (John Harbaugh via Colin, 28:56)
• Debate on positional value:
  • Even if Downs is arguably the best prospect, being a safety (a traditionally non-premium position) may hurt his draft slot.
  • John: “If Caleb Downs was a defensive lineman, he'd probably be the number two overall pick... but you draft safeties later.” (30:10)
• Colin sees a shift in the value of the safety position:
  • Points out that defensive trends have elevated the importance of elite safeties, citing examples like Kyle Hamilton.
• Where would Max Crosby be traded? (31:27–34:00)
  • John and Colin mention potential trade destinations for the Raiders’ star, listing Eagles, Bills, Ravens, Bears, Lions, and Rams as possible suitors.
  • Colin speaks highly of Crosby’s work ethic and universal respect among NFL executives:
    • “His ability to play hard in a bad culture for multiple coaches at the highest level—every executive I’ve ever talked to is like, ‘I’m a Max Crosby guy.’” (Colin, 33:25)

7. Michael Jordan’s NASCAR Daytona 500 Victory (34:14–36:25)

• Jordan’s NASCAR team wins Daytona 500, putting MJ “back on top”:
  • Colin: “It feels like I won a championship, but until I get my ring, I won't even know.” (quoting MJ, 35:03)
  • John observes that, unlike his NBA ownership stints, MJ’s joy in NASCAR is palpable: “That enjoyment, that smile—he knew his ring size when he was being interviewed after, size 13.” (35:14)
• Fun note:
  • Michael Jordan is the second North Carolina basketball player to win the Daytona 500 as an owner (after Brad Daugherty).

Notable Quotes

• Jason Timpf on the United States’ lost generation of NBA stars:
  “Every single one of those guys were huge pedigree, huge potential guys who all to varying degrees underachieved. And I'd argue six of those seven have been straight up busts.” (04:39)
• On Tanking Solutions:
  “If you abolish the draft, you’re going to have every agency and sponsor try to pressure and drive these guys toward big markets. I don’t think that would be good for competitive balance.” (Jason Timpf, 08:21)
• On Lakers’ plight:
  “They have nobody on the roster who is both a good defender and a good catch and shoot player. Literally not a single one…They need three new starters and they need to build out a bench.” (Jason Timpf, 17:49)
• On the Warriors' and Steph Curry’s window:
  “They always toed that line and tried to play both eras and the future era ended up being nothing. And now the current era looks like it’s running out of time.” (Jason Timpf, 21:09)
• On positional value in the NFL Draft:
  “If Caleb Downs was a defensive lineman, he'd probably be the number two overall pick because he is arguably the best player in this draft not playing defensive line or quarterback.” (John Middelkoff, 30:10)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:53 — NBA’s last decade of draft disappointments (Jason Timpf)
• 05:22–08:59 — The tanking conundrum in the NBA; potential solutions
• 09:34–10:52 — Knicks, contenders, and playoff limitations
• 15:29–18:38 — The Lakers' draft and roster construction failures
• 18:38–21:22 — Warriors, Kuminga, and the dangers of hedging on “eras”
• 28:36–34:00 — NFL: Giants’ draft, Caleb Downs as high-pick safety, Max Crosby trade rumors
• 34:14–36:25 — Michael Jordan’s Daytona 500 win

Tone & Style

Colin is his usual sharp, sometimes unsparing self—skeptical about executive decisions, bullish on smart organizational structure, and appreciative of greatness where he finds it. Jason Timpf brings analytical rigor and a frankness about franchise success and failure—he doesn’t hold back on the Lakers or Warriors. The football segment is more measured and speculative, balancing the tension between positional value and pure talent.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This hour offers a deep dive into the mechanics of roster construction, the ripple effects of poor drafting and risk-averse front office decisions, and the intersection of individual will, organizational culture, and systemic constraints in pro sports. If you want to understand why some teams can’t dig out of mediocrity or why certain players “bust,” the candid, detailed analysis from Colin and Jason lays it out. The football segment adds draft strategy color and the fun closer on Michael Jordan provides a cross-sport pop culture hit to round it out.

End of Summary