The Herd with Colin Cowherd

What's Wright - Best Of: Brock Purdy & 49ers SUPER BOWL Bound? Stafford vs. Maye MVP, NFL Week 18 Picks

Date: January 4, 2026
Host: Nick Wright
Co-host: Daman
Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)

Episode Overview

This "Best Of" episode from the "What's Wright" segment, hosted by Nick Wright, dives deep into the latest NFL storylines as the regular season wraps up and playoff races heat up. The central focus is the evolving NFL MVP race—particularly the hotly debated contest between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye—and a critical appraisal of how MVP voting trends have changed in recent years. The episode also spotlights Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers’ late-season surge, with examination of credit allocation in one of the league's most potent offenses. Nick wraps with his best bets and predictions for NFL Week 18, laying out the playoff implications and key matchups with his signature blend of insight and wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Changing Nature of the NFL MVP Race

(00:49 - 10:32, with detailed arguments throughout the first segment)

• Drake Maye vs. Matthew Stafford:

  • Drake Maye overtakes Stafford in MVP odds after a stellar Week 17, which Wright finds troubling because it signals a broader shift in what voters value.
  • Nick Wright:

    “I think last night Drake Maye won the MVP and I do not like that at all. … My issue is MVP has slowly started to turn into December Player of the Month amongst the MVP candidates and I don’t like that.” (01:10)

  • Statistical breakdown: Wright notes that Stafford outpaces Maye in key categories:
    • More passing yards
    • 12 more touchdowns
    • 25 fewer sacks
    • Same number of interceptions
    • Maye has a slightly higher passer rating
  • Daman clarifies both QBs have played the same number of games (07:15–07:23).

• "Recency Bias" in MVP Voting:

  • Wright laments the shift since 2023 where the MVP award seemingly goes to whichever candidate is "hottest" in December, regardless of sustained excellence.
  • He references Lamar Jackson's 2023 campaign and Josh Allen's late surge as evidence.
  • Quote:

    “It feels to me like MVP is slowly moving towards who’s hottest at the end of the year. And I don’t love that.” (07:34)

• The Rams, Playoff Implications, and Stafford's Legacy:

  • Wright suggests that a single play—a missed tackle on a punt return—could cost Stafford a Hall of Fame shot if it derailed the Rams' postseason position.

    “Is there an argument that not tackling Rasheed Shahid on the punt return in the fourth quarter last Thursday night is going to cost Matt Stafford a spot in the Hall of Fame? Maybe.” (11:01)

  • He details playoff scenarios for the Rams, noting how implications for seeding (and cold weather games) create a steeper path for LA (11:51–13:56).
  • Nick still maintains:

    “On a neutral site I like the Rams better than any team in the league. But McVay’s Rams... have not been great in cold weather against good teams, and their road just got so much harder over the last couple weeks.” (13:57)

2. Brock Purdy and the 49ers: Assessing Credit and the Quarterback Debate

(21:05 - 28:09)

• Purdy’s Performance Without Key Playmakers:

  • Daman foregrounds Purdy’s back-to-back high-impact games despite missing top teammates:

    “Purdy’s looked amazing. 300 yards, three touchdowns without all his guys. … How close are we to reopening that conversation?” (21:10)

  • Nick concedes Purdy has “been great,” crediting his return from injury and current hot streak.

• System Quarterback? The Ongoing Debate:

  • Nick revisits his long-standing critique: any competent QB (e.g., Jimmy Garoppolo, Mac Jones) can succeed under Kyle Shanahan, given the 49ers’ surrounding talent.

    “They then put literally the last pick of the draft in Jimmy Garoppolo’s spot. He performs at an even higher level. … My statement: I think if you dropped any starting caliber quarterback in his spot with that team, they would perform at that level.” (21:27)

  • But he pivots to acknowledge Purdy’s development:

    “Do I think Brock Purdy is proving himself to be a pretty good NFL quarterback? And does that surprise me? Yes. … And certainly if he’s playing at this level, he’s worth $50 million. I don’t think this level is sustainable, but he’s been great.” (24:20–25:01)

  • Nick’s primary argument: the real story is Shanahan and McCaffrey:

    “The story of this Niner season is about two people more than anybody: Kyle Shanahan and Christian McCaffrey.” (26:37)

3. Awards Races & Playoff Picture: 49ers, Bears, and More

(27:09 - 29:28)

• Coach and Offensive Player of the Year:

  • Nick’s picks: Kyle Shanahan (Coach of the Year) and Christian McCaffrey (Offensive Player of the Year).
  • Quote:

    “Christian McCaffrey is the most important non-quarterback in the league this year.” (27:18)

• 49ers’ Title Chances & Defense:

  • Nick acknowledges surprise at the 49ers’ Super Bowl potential, given defensive questions, but recognizes the offense’s dominance—especially with the playoff bye in reach.

• Bears in the Playoffs:

  • Nick describes Chicago as “a year away from real contention,” despite a strong season from rookie Caleb Williams:

    “Their defense has just as many questions as the Niners, and while Caleb ... was awesome in that game, … they’re probably a year away from real contention.” (29:28)

4. Nick Wright’s NFL Week 18 Picks & Playoff Scenarios

(31:24 - 35:38)

Nick’s rapid-fire against-the-spread picks with rationale:

• Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Carolina:

  • “They just can’t go out like this. ... Tampa has been one of the worst teams in football for two months, but they’re at home.” (31:32)

• Seattle -1 at San Francisco:

  • “I think Seattle gets the one seed. … I think they win.” (32:07)

• Raiders +5.5 vs. Kansas City:

  • “The Chiefs offense right now just can’t be five and a half point favorites against anybody.” (32:59)

• Miami +12 at New England:

  • “Just a lot of points. Mike McDaniel trying to save his job. ... I’m getting 12 points. I’ll take Miami plus 12.” (34:04)

• Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Baltimore:

  • “I don’t really care who’s playing quarterback for Baltimore in this game to be honest. … We know all the Tomlin getting points at home, divisional games. ... So I’ll take Pittsburgh plus three and a half.” (34:48)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Recency Bias in MVP Voting:

  “The first three months of the year are to determine who the actual candidates are and then the award is given based off who has the best December—and I don’t love that.” — Nick Wright (09:10)

• On Stafford’s Hall of Fame Odds:

  “Is there an argument that not tackling Rasheed Shahid on the punt return…is going to cost Matt Stafford a spot in the Hall of Fame? Maybe.” — Nick Wright (11:01)

• On the 49ers’ Real MVPs:

  “The story of this Niner season is about two people...Kyle Shanahan and Christian McCaffrey.” — Nick Wright (26:37)

• On Chicago and the Playoffs:

  “I think they’re probably a year away from real contention now, it doesn’t mean they can’t do it, but it would surprise me.” — Nick Wright (29:28)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Stafford vs. Maye & Recency Bias Discussion: 00:49–13:57
• Rams Playoff Scenarios and Implications: 11:51–13:56
• 49ers, Brock Purdy Debate, and Shanahan/McCaffrey Praise: 21:05–28:09
• Awards Picks and Bears Outlook: 27:09–29:28
• NFL Week 18 Best Bets: 31:24–35:38

Episode Takeaways

• The NFL MVP discussion is consumed by recency bias, often ignoring entire season body of work for late-season performance.
• Matthew Stafford’s legacy, Super Bowl odds, and MVP candidacy are delicately intertwined with seemingly minor single-play outcomes and playoff seedings.
• Brock Purdy’s superb play merits credit, but Nick Wright insists the core of the 49ers’ success is Kyle Shanahan’s coaching and Christian McCaffrey’s durability.
• The dynamic and high-stakes NFC playoff picture hinges on Week 18, with Nick offering candid, data-driven picks laced with skepticism toward cold-weather matchups and divisional dogfights.

Missed the episode? This summary captures every key argument and sharp take from Nick Wright as NFL awards and playoff chaos loom.