The Herd with Colin Cowherd: What's Wright - Best Of

Episode: Nick Wright's NFL Week 1 Picks, Predicting Chiefs' Super Bowl Opponent, Belichick Debut
Date: September 6, 2025
Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)

Overview

This “Best Of” episode from the "What's Wright" segment showcases Nick Wright’s most compelling NFL Week 1 betting picks, long-term predictions (including a bold Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl call), and sharp commentary on Bill Belichick's much-discussed college football coaching debut. Nick is joined throughout by his co-host, Damanze, for fast-paced discussion, critical debate, and trademark candid analysis.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Nick Wright’s Official NFL Win Total Bets

[02:08 – 07:17]

Main Points:

• Nick Wright’s 6 Team "Over" Bets (Win Totals):

  • Jaguars over 7.5 wins (-125): Bounce-back year for Trevor Lawrence in a make-or-break season—“They only have to win eight games.” (02:40)
  • Bears over 8.5 (+115): Intrigued by young coaching talent—“I love their offensive coordinator who's also their head coach.” (03:38)
  • Chiefs over (annual bet): “You just bet the Chiefs over every single year.” (04:09)
  • Buccaneers over 9.5 (-120): Possibly top NFC team—“They are going to win at least 11 games, maybe 12 or 13.” (04:18)
  • Raiders over 6.5 (-145): The league’s sleeper—“They're the team everyone thinks is going to be bad that I think is going to be good.” (04:33)
  • Falcons over 7.5 (-140): Trust in Raheem Morris and improving defense.

• Damanze’s Take:

  • Favorite Over: Jaguars (“I think it's the Jags over seven and a half”—04:45)
  • Least Favorite: Bears, but doesn’t disagree strongly.

• Nick Wright’s 6 Team "Under" Bets:

  • Bengals under 9.5 (-115): Concerns over O-line, defense, and “Zach Taylor’s hot seat.” (05:07)
  • Colts under 7.5 (-130) [Favorite]: Might get #1 draft pick—“I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft. I think that is absolutely on the board.” (05:33)
  • Broncos under 9.5 (+110): Predicts early hope, late collapse—wary of Bo Nix and injury risks.
  • Cowboys under 8.5 (-145): Odds shifted post-Parsons trade, but pick locked.
  • Vikings under 9.5 (-125): Too much to ask of their new QB in tough division.
  • 49ers under 10.5: “I think the Niners are looked at IRS in the schedule soft as like a Tier 2 Super bowl contender. I don't look at them that way.” (06:46)

• Damanze’s Take:

  • Favorite Under: 49ers
  • Least Favorite: Bengals

2. Make/Miss Playoff Bets and Square Betting Process

[07:17 – 09:31]

Nick’s Picks:

• Make Playoffs Bets:

  • Jags (+180), Chiefs (-380), Raiders (+340 for a half unit), Giants (5:1 for a quarter unit), Buccaneers (-170)

• Miss Playoffs Bets:

  • Steelers (-140), Colts (-260), Broncos (+130), Cowboys (-210), Vikings (+102 for two units), Cardinals (-140)

• Candid Admission on "Square" Bets:

  • On a multi-team parlay to miss the playoffs (Saints, Jets, Browns, Colts, -135):
    • Damanze: “Is that not terrible odds?”
    • Nick: “No, no. It's terrible value... Putting four things together just for the opportunity to lay -135 is terrible process.” (09:13)
    • Nick admits the bet is process-poor but just can’t see the teams he’s fading making the playoffs.

3. Division Winner and Super Bowl Exacta Bets

[10:18 – 12:57]

Division Winner Picks:

• Chiefs to win AFC West (-115)—“They win it every year. Mahomes is 35 and 5 in his career in the division.” (10:24)
• Buccaneers to win NFC South (-115)—“I just think the Bucks are going to be really good… I might like that even more than I like the Chiefs one.” (11:05)
• Parlay: Baltimore + Buffalo both win their divisions (+106): “Baltimore and Buffalo are such regular season juggernauts…” (11:43)

Super Bowl "Exacta":

• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers (+5500), Chiefs to defeat Buccaneers (+11,000)
  • “The Chiefs with Mahomes have been to five Super Bowls, all rematches… The one other team they played, Tampa Bay. Another super bowl rematch. Bake show against Patrick…” (13:01)
  • Nick and Damanze reminisce about Mahomes vs. Mayfield epic 2016 college shootout:
    • “The final score… was 66 to 59… Baker was 27 of 36 for 545 yards, seven touchdowns, no picks… Patrick was 52 of 88… for 734 yards, five touchdowns…. Mahomes in that game combined for 810 yards, seven touchdowns, one pick.” (14:46)

4. NFL Week 1 Picks ("The Five")

[21:12 – 32:24]

Nick's Week 1 Betting Picks:

1. Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers (Neutral Site) (21:55)

   • “I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the 14th best team…”
   • Mahomes’ record in openers and handling odd environments.

2. Miami +1 at Indianapolis (23:33)

   • Dolphins need a hot start; Colts are his least-trusted team—“If the Dolphins have any chance… they must start fast. Colts… might end up being the worst team in football this year.”

3. Cleveland +5 vs. Cincinnati (25:23)

   • “Does it feel good including the Cleveland Browns in my week one picks? Of course not… Cincinnati is awful every single year in week one.”
   • Flacco’s gunslinger/backdoor cover tendencies.

4. Las Vegas +2.5 at New England (28:08)

   • Goes against public pessimism; likes matchup for Raiders—“I think New England is going to have real trouble scoring points this year… Raiders defense is not going to be exploited.”

5. Buffalo +1 vs. Baltimore (30:00)

   • “If Buffalo is at home, they shouldn't be underdogs. That's all.”
   • Thinks market overestimates Ravens, underestimates Bills at home.

5. Bill Belichick’s College Coaching Debut at North Carolina

[36:49 – 47:18]

Nick’s Take:

• Good opening drive, “hell of an opening drive and then the rest of the game happened.” (36:49)

• UNC’s historic struggle—“his team with the 70 new players… got absolutely dog walked for three hours.” (37:12)

• On the overestimation of Patricia and Belichick’s scheme in college:

  • “To me that was more about a young player… in a brutal environment and the other team having all these pros on defense than it was about Matt Patricia's brilliant scheme.”
  • Skeptical that Belichick’s NFL defensive magic will translate without recruiting and talent.

• On Belichick’s personal distractions, dating controversy, and its impact:

  • “Does 70 something year old Bill Belichick have his eye on the ball here?... How much of Belichick Mr. No distractions… has been weakened by this three plus year… relationship with wannabe starlet Jordan Hudson?” (43:13)

• On legacy:

  • “Him going to college football and being awful will not, in my opinion negatively affect his legacy, except it will be... (just) a thing that people who were here for it remember.… But it won't stick to it for those in the history books.” (45:12)
  • Failing in college, though, does likely close the door on “run(ning) down Shula” in coaching wins.

Notable Quotes

• Nick Wright, on betting the Chiefs over win total:

  “You just bet the Chiefs over every single year. I mean it's since Andy's been there pre-Mahomes it has failed to hit one time.” (04:09)

• On square betting processes:

  “Putting four things together just for the opportunity to lay -135 is terrible process.” (09:14)

• On Belichick’s situation at North Carolina:

  “You watched that game last night and you said to yourself, ‘Oh, are they going to have competent quarterback play?’ … you ask yourself the question of how long has it been since we have known Bill Belichick is a. An above average talent evaluator.… nervous times.” (43:45)

• On the uniqueness of Belichick’s final coaching chapter:

  “Him going to college football and being awful will not, in my opinion, negatively affect his legacy, except…it will be…the last thing you remember about him. But it won't stick to it for those in the history books.” (45:12)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 02:08 – 07:17: Win total “Over/Under” team picks
• 07:17 – 09:31: Playoff picks and betting theory discussion
• 10:18 – 12:57: Division winner bets and Super Bowl exacta
• 21:12 – 32:24: Week 1 picks and rationale
• 36:49 – 47:18: Belichick’s college debut and legacy debate

Conclusion

This episode is quintessential “What’s Wright”—unfiltered, sharp, and loaded with actionable analysis. Nick Wright doesn’t just give picks; he brings you deep into his process (flaws and all), challenges prevailing narratives on the NFL and college football, and delivers memorable takes on personalities like Belichick. If you want a blend of sharp insight and strong opinions on the opening week of the NFL (plus an early call for Chiefs-Bucs in the Super Bowl), this is a must-listen.