What’s Wright - Best Of - Nick Wright's NFL Week 1 picks, predicting Chiefs' Super Bowl opponent, Belichick debut

Summary

The Herd with Colin Cowherd: What's Wright - Best Of

Episode: Nick Wright's NFL Week 1 Picks, Predicting Chiefs' Super Bowl Opponent, Belichick Debut
Date: September 6, 2025
Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)

---

Overview

This “Best Of” episode from the "What's Wright" segment showcases Nick Wright’s most compelling NFL Week 1 betting picks, long-term predictions (including a bold Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl call), and sharp commentary on Bill Belichick's much-discussed college football coaching debut. Nick is joined throughout by his co-host, Damanze, for fast-paced discussion, critical debate, and trademark candid analysis.

---

Key Segments and Insights

---

1. Nick Wright’s Official NFL Win Total Bets

[02:08 – 07:17]

Main Points:

• Nick Wright’s 6 Team "Over" Bets (Win Totals):

  • Jaguars over 7.5 wins (-125): Bounce-back year for Trevor Lawrence in a make-or-break season—“They only have to win eight games.” (02:40)
  • Bears over 8.5 (+115): Intrigued by young coaching talent—“I love their offensive coordinator who's also their head coach.” (03:38)
  • Chiefs over (annual bet): “You just bet the Chiefs over every single year.” (04:09)
  • Buccaneers over 9.5 (-120): Possibly top NFC team—“They are going to win at least 11 games, maybe 12 or 13.” (04:18)
  • Raiders over 6.5 (-145): The league’s sleeper—“They're the team everyone thinks is going to be bad that I think is going to be good.” (04:33)
  • Falcons over 7.5 (-140): Trust in Raheem Morris and improving defense.

• Damanze’s Take:

  • Favorite Over: Jaguars (“I think it's the Jags over seven and a half”—04:45)
  • Least Favorite: Bears, but doesn’t disagree strongly.

• Nick Wright’s 6 Team "Under" Bets:

  • Bengals under 9.5 (-115): Concerns over O-line, defense, and “Zach Taylor’s hot seat.” (05:07)
  • Colts under 7.5 (-130) [Favorite]: Might get #1 draft pick—“I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft. I think that is absolutely on the board.” (05:33)
  • Broncos under 9.5 (+110): Predicts early hope, late collapse—wary of Bo Nix and injury risks.
  • Cowboys under 8.5 (-145): Odds shifted post-Parsons trade, but pick locked.
  • Vikings under 9.5 (-125): Too much to ask of their new QB in tough division.
  • 49ers under 10.5: “I think the Niners are looked at IRS in the schedule soft as like a Tier 2 Super bowl contender. I don't look at them that way.” (06:46)

• Damanze’s Take:

  • Favorite Under: 49ers
  • Least Favorite: Bengals

---

2. Make/Miss Playoff Bets and Square Betting Process

[07:17 – 09:31]

Nick’s Picks:

• Make Playoffs Bets:

  • Jags (+180), Chiefs (-380), Raiders (+340 for a half unit), Giants (5:1 for a quarter unit), Buccaneers (-170)

• Miss Playoffs Bets:

  • Steelers (-140), Colts (-260), Broncos (+130), Cowboys (-210), Vikings (+102 for two units), Cardinals (-140)

• Candid Admission on "Square" Bets:

  • On a multi-team parlay to miss the playoffs (Saints, Jets, Browns, Colts, -135):
    • Damanze: “Is that not terrible odds?”
    • Nick: “No, no. It's terrible value... Putting four things together just for the opportunity to lay -135 is terrible process.” (09:13)
    • Nick admits the bet is process-poor but just can’t see the teams he’s fading making the playoffs.

---

3. Division Winner and Super Bowl Exacta Bets

[10:18 – 12:57]

Division Winner Picks:

• Chiefs to win AFC West (-115)—“They win it every year. Mahomes is 35 and 5 in his career in the division.” (10:24)
• Buccaneers to win NFC South (-115)—“I just think the Bucks are going to be really good… I might like that even more than I like the Chiefs one.” (11:05)
• Parlay: Baltimore + Buffalo both win their divisions (+106): “Baltimore and Buffalo are such regular season juggernauts…” (11:43)

Super Bowl "Exacta":

• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers (+5500), Chiefs to defeat Buccaneers (+11,000)
  • “The Chiefs with Mahomes have been to five Super Bowls, all rematches… The one other team they played, Tampa Bay. Another super bowl rematch. Bake show against Patrick…” (13:01)
  • Nick and Damanze reminisce about Mahomes vs. Mayfield epic 2016 college shootout:
    • “The final score… was 66 to 59… Baker was 27 of 36 for 545 yards, seven touchdowns, no picks… Patrick was 52 of 88… for 734 yards, five touchdowns…. Mahomes in that game combined for 810 yards, seven touchdowns, one pick.” (14:46)

---

4. NFL Week 1 Picks ("The Five")

[21:12 – 32:24]

Nick's Week 1 Betting Picks:

1. Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers (Neutral Site) (21:55)

   • “I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the 14th best team…”
   • Mahomes’ record in openers and handling odd environments.

2. Miami +1 at Indianapolis (23:33)

   • Dolphins need a hot start; Colts are his least-trusted team—“If the Dolphins have any chance… they must start fast. Colts… might end up being the worst team in football this year.”

3. Cleveland +5 vs. Cincinnati (25:23)

   • “Does it feel good including the Cleveland Browns in my week one picks? Of course not… Cincinnati is awful every single year in week one.”
   • Flacco’s gunslinger/backdoor cover tendencies.

4. Las Vegas +2.5 at New England (28:08)

   • Goes against public pessimism; likes matchup for Raiders—“I think New England is going to have real trouble scoring points this year… Raiders defense is not going to be exploited.”

5. Buffalo +1 vs. Baltimore (30:00)

   • “If Buffalo is at home, they shouldn't be underdogs. That's all.”
   • Thinks market overestimates Ravens, underestimates Bills at home.

---

5. Bill Belichick’s College Coaching Debut at North Carolina

[36:49 – 47:18]

Nick’s Take:

• Good opening drive, “hell of an opening drive and then the rest of the game happened.” (36:49)

• UNC’s historic struggle—“his team with the 70 new players… got absolutely dog walked for three hours.” (37:12)

• On the overestimation of Patricia and Belichick’s scheme in college:

  • “To me that was more about a young player… in a brutal environment and the other team having all these pros on defense than it was about Matt Patricia's brilliant scheme.”
  • Skeptical that Belichick’s NFL defensive magic will translate without recruiting and talent.

• On Belichick’s personal distractions, dating controversy, and its impact:

  • “Does 70 something year old Bill Belichick have his eye on the ball here?... How much of Belichick Mr. No distractions… has been weakened by this three plus year… relationship with wannabe starlet Jordan Hudson?” (43:13)

• On legacy:

  • “Him going to college football and being awful will not, in my opinion negatively affect his legacy, except it will be... (just) a thing that people who were here for it remember.… But it won't stick to it for those in the history books.” (45:12)
  • Failing in college, though, does likely close the door on “run(ning) down Shula” in coaching wins.

---

Notable Quotes

• Nick Wright, on betting the Chiefs over win total:

  “You just bet the Chiefs over every single year. I mean it's since Andy's been there pre-Mahomes it has failed to hit one time.” (04:09)

• On square betting processes:

  “Putting four things together just for the opportunity to lay -135 is terrible process.” (09:14)

• On Belichick’s situation at North Carolina:

  “You watched that game last night and you said to yourself, ‘Oh, are they going to have competent quarterback play?’ … you ask yourself the question of how long has it been since we have known Bill Belichick is a. An above average talent evaluator.… nervous times.” (43:45)

• On the uniqueness of Belichick’s final coaching chapter:

  “Him going to college football and being awful will not, in my opinion, negatively affect his legacy, except…it will be…the last thing you remember about him. But it won't stick to it for those in the history books.” (45:12)

---

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 02:08 – 07:17: Win total “Over/Under” team picks
• 07:17 – 09:31: Playoff picks and betting theory discussion
• 10:18 – 12:57: Division winner bets and Super Bowl exacta
• 21:12 – 32:24: Week 1 picks and rationale
• 36:49 – 47:18: Belichick’s college debut and legacy debate

---

Conclusion

This episode is quintessential “What’s Wright”—unfiltered, sharp, and loaded with actionable analysis. Nick Wright doesn’t just give picks; he brings you deep into his process (flaws and all), challenges prevailing narratives on the NFL and college football, and delivers memorable takes on personalities like Belichick. If you want a blend of sharp insight and strong opinions on the opening week of the NFL (plus an early call for Chiefs-Bucs in the Super Bowl), this is a must-listen.

Transcript

[A]

This is an iHeart podcast. You can make a difference in someone's life, including your own, with a job in home care. These jobs offer flexible schedules, health care, retirement options, and free training. They also provide paid time off and opportunities for overtime. Visit oregonhomecarejobs.com to learn more and apply. That's oregonhomecarejobs.com.

[B]

Hey, this is Matt Jones. And I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're gonna get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.

[C]

I'm Dan. He's Ty.

[A]

Hello.

[C]

And we're the solid verbal college football podcast.

[D]

Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.

[C]

Join us all season long as we ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport.

[D]

Listen to the solid verbal college football podcasts on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[C]

We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it.

[E]

It's important that we just reassure people that they're not alone and there is help out there.

[F]

The Good Stuff Podcast. Season two takes a deep look into One Tribe Foundation, a nonprofit fighting suicide in the veteran community. September is National Suicide Prevention Month, so join hosts Jacob and Ashley Schick as they bring you to the front lines of One Tribe's mission.

[A]

One tribe saved twice. Welcome to season two of the Good Stuff.

[F]

Listen to the Good Stuff podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[A]

Welcome to the best of the week for what's right with Nick Wright. The best takes and moments from this week on the show. Enjoy. I want to recap what we've done and then get to Demodze's picks and my final picks. So we did six official. If you want to hear all 32 overs and unders again, like, rate, subscribe, review. It's on YouTube, it's on iTunes, it's on Spotify everywhere. You can get your podcast and you can hear my picks for all 32 teams. But there are six bets that we are making. Okay, we are betting the overs for the following teams with the following juice jags over seven and a half minus 125. I think the Jags are going to make the playoffs. I think Trevor is going to have a bounce back year. I also think he knows this is kind of a make or break year for him. He luckily already got paid. But as far as him being considered like a no doubt franchise quarterback, they've got to be good. I think they will be. And they only have to win eight games. The Bears over eight and a half at plus 115. I like everything about the team. I love the coach at least this. I love their offensive coordinator who's also their head coach. I can't yet say if I know Ben Johnson will be good at the head coaching stuff. I know he's good at the play calling stuff. I don't mind the tough love on Caleb. So they're an over. I have Kansas City. You just bet the Chiefs over every single year. I mean it's since Andy's been there prima homes it has failed to hit one time and I they if they only win if they go 12 and five people would consider that a bit of a disappointment and it would hit their over. Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these. I think the Bucks have a real shot to be the 1 seed in the NFC and and I think that they are going to win at least 11 games, maybe 12 or 13. That's minus one 20. The Raiders over six nav at minus one 45. They're the team everyone thinks is going to be bad that I think is going to be good. And Atlanta over seven and a half at minus 1:40. Again they won eight games last year with Cousins falling apart and I think you know year two of Raheem Morris with the defense. Those are my overs. Demanze of those six what is your favorite and what is your least favorite of my 6 overs there favorite?

[E]

I gotta say man, I think it's the Jags over seven and a half least favorite. I don't really. I guess if like if I had to choose one my least favorite would be the Bears. But like I don't like I don't.

[A]

Disagree but you don't hate it, right? Okay. All right. Now the unders. Six unders as well. Bengals under nine and a half at minus 115. I just don't see a team with those. I think they have real question marks on the old line and obvious question marks all over the defense and I think Zach Taylor's seat is very hot. I don't think they're getting to double digit wins. The Colts under seven and a half at minus 130. This is my favorite of the unders. I, I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft. I think that is absolutely on the board. The Broncos under nine and a half at plus 1 10. I, I think the Broncos are going to get out to a decent start. People are going to be crowing. I think the final two months of the season are going to be brutal for them. I also think people have overestimated what they're going to get from Bo Knicks this year and I they're two major, their two major defensive additions are such injury risks to me that I don't think, I don't know that they're going to get the boost from them that people expect.

[E]

Possibly bet this in a few weeks with better odds.

[A]

Oh, if they get off to a good start. Yeah, sure. Absolutely. Yeah, that's on the board. Cowboys under eight and a half minus 145. I did this before the Parsons trade. I assume you know, odds have shifted on this, but we've made these bets already. Vikings under 9 and a half -1 25 I just think it's a lot to ask in that division for a de facto rookie quarterback and I just think the Niners win totals wrong. I think the, the Niners are looked at IRS in the schedule soft as like a Tier 2 Super bowl contender. I don't look at them that way. I think that they are, you know, a 78 win team. So I will take under 10 and a half for the Niners. My favorite there is as I mentioned, the Colts Damanze your your favorite. Your least favorite.

[E]

Least favorite there is Bengals favorite favorite. Yeah, I agree with the niners. Yeah, the 49ers.

[A]

It's just a big number man. They can win the division and get their under like that. It's just a big number. All right. Make miss playoffs. Do it quickly. Jags plus 180. Chiefs minus 380. Raiders plus 340 for a half unit. Giant Giants five to one for a quarter unit and the Bucks minus 170. Those are make playoffs. Miss playoffs. Steelers minus 140. Colts minus 260. Broncos plus 130. Cowboys minus 210. Again that one is moved but I got it in time. The Vikings plus 102 units on that one and the Cardinals minus 1:40 and then a miss playoffs parlay. I did a few of these last year that screwed me. I'm only doing 14 teams that I think are likely to finish in dead last in their division. Saints, Jets, Browns, Colts, all to miss the playoffs. Minus 135. Two units. I am acutely aware to Monze that the Colts have a chance to be the Jags for me this year or two years ago. Yeah, remember two years ago I would have had a hugely profitable preseason. You know, gambling shows. But I had the Jags involved in four separate bets. I lost them all. And because the Jags weren't as good as I thought the Colts, if the Colts are really good, I lose this, I lose the miss the playoffs bet and I lose their under. Luckily, Daniel Jones is greatly involved. So I'm not worried about that.

[E]

Yeah, so I'm. I'm still. I'm still getting accustomed to the betting and stuff.

[A]

Yeah.

[E]

Parlaying four things to just get minus 135.

[A]

Is that not terrible odds?

[E]

Okay.

[A]

No, no. It's terrible value.

[E]

Okay.

[A]

Yes. You. You're. You. You are correct in telling me that is a square wager.

[E]

Okay.

[A]

Together. Putting four things together just for the opportunity to lay -135 is terrible process.

[E]

But I'm seeing things correctly.

[A]

I just feel. Yeah, no, you're right. I just feel like Saints, Jets, Browns are just DOA for the playoffs. And so it's, it's. I have the Colts to miss the playoffs at minus 260 and then I have them basically again to miss the playoffs at minus 135. So that's. That's the way I'm doing it. It's not good process. You're right. All right. The new picks, before we get to Demons picks which were wildly profitable last year, we are only doing three division winner bets. And I can't believe the first two of these demands A are only minus 1:15. Tell the audience the first one.

[E]

All right. No surprise here. We got the Chiefs to win the West. The AFC West. Sorry. At minus 1:15.

[A]

Yeah, they win it every year. Mahomes is 35 and 5 in his career in the division. They win it by an average in Mahomes his career by four games. Last year the AFC west had three playoff teams. It was such a tough division. They won it by four games despite throwing week 18 minus 115. I'll take the Chiefs over the field the next one. Another team, Demons A that wins their division every year, only minus 115. What is it?

[E]

We've got the bucks to win the NFC South -115.

[A]

Like the Saints and Panthers to Me are no shot no shotters and the. I just think the Bucks are going to be really good and then the last. So that's. I love. I might like that even more than I like the Chiefs one but I.

[E]

The just because how weak the division is.

[A]

Yeah, exactly right. And then I found I. I found a plus money parlay here. Demons A only two teams.

[E]

So we got a division winner. We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus 106. I'd say that's another safe one.

[A]

I mean that's really to me just fading. The Bengals, maybe I'm wrong. I'm not worried about the Steelers. It's just maybe no maybe the defense somehow with the new D coordinator is average. The offense is the same and they have an awesome year. But Baltimore and Buffalo are such regular season juggernauts that putting them together at +106 to me makes sense. And then our annual tradition super bowl exacta. Three years ago we had Chiefs Niners and the Niners found themselves in the conference championship game. Last two years ago we had Chiefs Cowboys and the Cowboys found themselves with 12 wins. Last year we had Chiefs Bears and the Bears had a season from hell and missed the playoffs. This year the super bowl exacta at 55 to 1 is. Drumroll please. Damaze.

[E]

We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay in the Super bowl exact plus 5500.

[A]

How about the. And then obviously spoiler super bowl exactly was a winner, right?

[E]

Kansas City to defeat Tampa Bay at plus 11,000.

[A]

Indeed. So Damanze, here's something I didn't even think about when I made this pick. Brew mentioned it. The Chiefs with Mahomes have been to five Super Bowls, all rematches. Played Philly twice, played San Francisco twice. The one other team they played, Tampa Bay. Another super bowl rematch. Bake show against Patrick revisiting the greatest the craziest college football game ever played. Do you know about their college football.

[E]

Game to Monte Mahomes and Baker against each other. I'm sure they each other up.

[A]

Hold on. Well let me. Damaze. So let me just tell you real quick. 2016 because they have played in the playoffs before. All right, so the final score to Monze. Let me. I'm just actually. Hold on. Let me just go to Patrick Mahomes college stats final score was 66 to 59. So that gives you a little bit of a preview. It was Texas Tech where Baker started against Oklahoma and Hold on. Where is it? Here it is. The final stats are as follows. Joe Mixon was in the game. He ran for 260. Okay. And four touchdowns. But that wasn't the story. The story was Baker. Baker was 27 of 36. Only through 36 passes for 545 yards, seven touchdowns, no picks.

[E]

Jesus.

[A]

Okay, okay. Patrick. Patrick was 52 of 88. Oh, he was slated for 734 yards, five touchdowns. Well, no, they did have a running back go 12 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns. That running back's name was Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes in that game combined for 810 yards, seven touchdowns, one pick bake show in that game never ran the ball through for 5:45 and seven touchdowns on just 36 attempts. Mahomes threw it 88 times. It is an all time legendary college football game.

[E]

Sounds like a fun one.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. October 22, 2016 all timer. And so they've played in the playoffs before. Patrick got hurt against the when Baker was there in the Browns. And yeah, that's my. That is Super Bowl. Super bowl exacta. I cannot wait. We are so excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Everybody knows and loves the Hard Rock hotels and casinos. And now you can use the top rated Hard Rock Bet sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sportsbook in the entire state of Florida. It is also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bets online casino if you are in New Jersey throughout the football season. We will be using, as you'll see here in a few minutes, Hard Rock Bet lines to make our predictions for the biggest games as we gear up for the NFL season. Sign up for a Hard Rock bet. Make a five dollar bet. You get 150 in bonus bets. If you win, head over to Hard Rock Bet. Sign up and make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New J, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia.

[D]

You can make a difference in someone's life, including your own with a job in home care. These jobs offer flexible schedules, health care, retirement options and free training. They also provide paid time off and opportunities for overtime. Visit oregonhomecarejobs.com to learn more and apply. That's oregonhomecarejobs.com.

[B]

Hey, this is Matt Jones. I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining and twice a week. That is exactly what you're gonna get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Looks like something that should not be sold. Oh my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. They sold that?

[D]

Yes.

[B]

Might want to go back to the cold stadium at the Colts stadium. Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that. Yeah. I thought the shape we had with pretzels was working pretty well.

[A]

It's worked for generations.

[B]

We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete Carroll is at his age. He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry. I wouldn't fight him. I would listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[C]

I'm Dan, he's Ty.

[A]

Hello.

[C]

And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast.

[D]

College football season is here. And you know what that means.

[C]

Your team is going to break your heart three times, probably before Halloween.

[A]

Uh huh.

[D]

But fear not, the Solid Verbal will be right there with you through every soul crushing loss and impossible comeback.

[C]

Join us all season long, all year long, as we ride the rollercoaster of this ridiculous sport.

[D]

Whether you're a diehard fan or a casual observer, we'll help you make sense of all the chaos and of course, celebrate the madness. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.

[C]

We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it.

[D]

Listen to the Solid Verbal college football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

I'm Marcus Grant.

[C]

And I'm Michael F. Florio.

[A]

And together we host the NFL Fantasy Football podcast.

[E]

Fantasy Season is here. And the question is, are you ready to dominate your leg league?

[A]

Because if you're not locked in with us, the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, you're already Playing from behind every episode, we're.

[E]

Breaking down the biggest fantasy headlines, injury.

[A]

Updates you need before kickoff, and matchups.

[E]

You can exploit to bury your competition.

[A]

We're talking sleeper picks, breakout stars, and the players you can't afford to bench.

[E]

Whether it's rookies making noise or veterans keeping their value, we cover it all.

[A]

Whether you're drafting for the first time time or chasing another championship, we'll give.

[E]

You the edge, the insight and the confidence to make every move count.

[A]

Weekly analysis, hot takes and insider knowledge all in one place.

[E]

So what's it going to be?

[A]

Another just okay season or total fantasy domination?

[E]

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. 2024 regular season you went 48, 40 and 2 and your overall record was 5,604 and 3 and we got playoffs. You also went undefeated in Touchdown Genie. Now this wasn't every week but we were undefeated.

[A]

I was very picky with when I went with the Bruisers love a good touchdown Genie. They love an octopus bet in the Super Bowl. They love a Touchdown Genie. They love all these things. I was very choosy on when I wanted to do it and I didn't realize it, but I did go undefeated on it. All right, five picks every week. What's my first pick?

[E]

First pick. We've got Kansas City minus three versus the Chargers.

[A]

Yeah, it's a neutral site and they're only laying three. It's not. I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the, you know, 14th best team in football. I do not think any team is more used to handling odd environments than Kansas City. Patrick is 5 and 2 against the spread and openers. I understand Herbert is a really good against the spread quarterback early in the season 10 and 5. But part of that is Patrick being 5 and 2 is even more impressive when you consider the fact that the Chiefs have become such a public team. Those lines are usually inflated. Chargers in the other direction, you know, they haven't had a ton of early season high, high level expectations. I just think I, I do not see. I think that Trent McDuffie is going to be able to neutralize lad McConkey and with if that happens, how else are the Chargers, who are they throwing it to? Like how are they moving the ball? And I don't. I know Harbaugh is going to want to run the no ran Slater is a big deal. The Chiefs -3 against the Chargers is my first bet of the Year and spoiler a bit it is the only favorite I am taking in week one. Next pick Demonze.

[E]

Next pick. You got Miami plus one at Indy.

[A]

Yeah this is a pretty simple one for me. You get the Dolphins indoors controlled climate obviously fast track like that you get to a healthy like that you get Tyreek something to prove early in the year like that and then you get a team in the Colts that I believe might end up being the worst team in football this year is certainly it's possible I am getting a point now. Obviously getting one point doesn't help you a lot. It's you're really just picking a winner. Excuse me, I apologize but if the Dolphins the Dolphins have any chance of having a better season than I think the general public expects from them, they must start fast. Colts, Pats, Bills, tough Jets, Panthers, Chargers, Browns like that's their opening slate because late in the year we go, you go Ravens, Bills, Commanders, Saints easy. Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Bucks, Pats like and a lot of cold weather games in there. This is a as close to a week one must win for a team's playoff hopes as exist. I don't love obviously the the Colts quarterback and Daniel Jones. I think Miami wins the game outright and I think Miami is going to be able to move the ball in the Colts defense. I'll take Miami plus one at Indy.

[E]

And next you've got Cleveland plus five or Cincinnati.

[A]

I do. I love this. I don't.

[E]

Yeah.

[A]

Does it feel good including the Cleveland Browns in my week one picks? Of course not. However, what was lost, what's lost in the shuffle about the Browns in week one is this. They'll be fine at quarterback this week. Now once Flacco starts taking some hits, once the season starts progressing, you know, how fine are they going to be? Probably not at all but this will probably be the best quarterback situation they have all year. Cincinnati has Trey Hendrickson coming off missing most of training camp. Shemar Stewart, rookie pass rusher, missed a lot of the off season. I first game for a new defensive coordinator and maybe most importantly and this is a point I have been trying to make I I have real concerns about Cincy's offensive line and you got Miles Garrett. Cincy also so just desperately needs a win that I don't think this is at any point going to be a style points type of game. I think this is going to be a man if we're up 3 late suck the air out of the stadium, get out of there with a win. So I think, I think that you know 21:17 Cincinnati is a pretty likely outcome for this game. I'll take the five points. I'm. It's a home divisional dog against a team that is awful every single year in week one. And so Cleveland plus five against Cincinnati is the way I'm going. I. It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just don't think Cincinnati is going to dominate the game because they never dominate early in the season. Next.

[E]

Good look there to you, pops. We got Vegas at plus two and a half.

[A]

You don't like that one?

[E]

It's not. It's. Yeah. Cause what if Cincinnati. What if they don't come out slow like they usually do?

[A]

Well, then. Then I'll lose the bet.

[E]

Yeah. But no divisional.

[A]

But what I will also say is here's the other thing we know about Flacco. Flacco loves chucking it deep and going for a backdoor cover like that is. That's the other piece. Like could this be Cincinnati up 27:17 with 90 seconds left and Flacco is, you know, throwing bombs and we end up stealing a backdoor cover for sure. All right, next.

[E]

Next you've got Vegas plus two and a half at New England.

[A]

Yeah. So this is, you know, basically just going with my preseason feel that the Raiders are better than people think they are. Now. I also think New England could be good, but I think New England is going to have real trouble scoring points this year. I like the rookie running back. I like Drake May. I don't like the receivers at all. And where the Raiders are going to be in trouble is against teams with explosive offenses. The Patriots do not have that. So I think that this is one of the few matchups all year where the Raiders defense is not going to be exploited. I think Max Crosby could have a big impact on that Patriots offensive line and if I know Variable he's going to game plan to just not let Max Crosby strip slack flip the game, which leads to conservative play calling and a lot of what he did at times in Tennessee, which is just keep it close and try to out execute them late. I think Geno is going to come out firing. I obviously really like Ashton Genty and I think the Raiders win this game and I'm getting two and a half points. This feels to me like 2120 Raiders. So I'll take the Raiders plus two and a half. Also. Patriots won four games last year. Teams that won four or fewer the previous year and our week one favorites are.05 against the spread in the last five. It's. It's a rare thing that happens. And so I will go with the Raiders plus two and a half last.

[E]

Lastly, you've got Buffalo plus one versus Baltimore.

[A]

Yeah, I mean, here's the thing. This is not anti Lamar at all. He's a great player and a great, great, great regular season player. No, it's. It's simply this. If Buffalo is at home, they shouldn't be underdogs. That's all. You know what I mean? Like, Buffalo is too good of a team to be a home dog. And I think that that is. I also saw Baltimore last year when people thought, oh, they have an extra chip on their shoulder because that's the team that knocked him out of the playoffs in the Chiefs. And the Chiefs controlled that game. And so this, by the way, is a very similar situation. Last year it was Kansas City minus one and a half. Was it minus? No. Yes, it was Kansas City -1 1/2 against Baltimore in Kansas City. And that was why that likely play was almost such an awful beat, because I had Casey minus one and a half. Casey was up seven. They score. They think they score that touchdown and then they're going to go for two, which would have killed the bet. You know what I like? If they go for two and they make it, they win. If they go for two and they miss it, they lose. Either way, the Chiefs couldn't win by a point and a half, but I just don't think Buffalo should be home dogs. And this will be the only time. Where do they play the Chiefs? And by the way, they wouldn't be home dogs against. They play the Chiefs in Buffalo, but they'll be favored in that game. Like this is also a little too much, a little too much respect for Baltimore. Like anytime this year, Buffalo's a home dog. All bet him. Which means right now is the only time. This is the only time all regular season there'll be a home dog. So my five picks, and a lot of this does have to do with preseason priors, but what else can you do in Week 1? Kansas City minus one in Brazil against the Chargers, Miami plus one at the Colts, Cleveland getting five at home against Cincinnati, Las Vegas getting two and a half in New England and Buffalo getting one at home against Baltimore. My friends at Boost Mobile ever sign up for a phone plan thinking, wow, amazing price. Then a few months later, surprise your bills higher. With Boost mobile, you pay $20 a month forever. That's unlimited talk, text and data starting at just 25amonth. No price hikes, no contract forever. Plus Boost Mobile is Now a legit nationwide 5G network. They've invested billions building 5G towers across the country. Visit boost mobile.com or head to your local Boost store today and get unlimited talk, text and data for $25 a month. Forever 5G speeds not available in all areas. After 30 gigs, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.

[D]

You can make a difference in someone's life, including your own, with a job in home care. These jobs offer flexible schedules, health care, retirement options and free training. They also provide paid time off and opportunities for overtime. Visit oregonhomecarejobs.com to learn more more and apply. That's oregonhomecarejobs.com.

[B]

Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining and twice a week that is exactly what you're going to get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Looks like something that should not be sold. Oh my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. Sold that.

[D]

Yes.

[B]

Might want to go back to the Colts stadium. Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that. Yeah, I thought the shape we had with pretzels was working pretty well.

[A]

It's worked for generations.

[B]

We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete Carroll is at his age. He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry. I wouldn't fight him. I would listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.

[C]

I'm Dan. He's Ty.

[A]

Hello.

[C]

And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast.

[D]

College football season is here and you know what that means.

[C]

Your team is going to break your heart three times probably before Halloween.

[A]

Uh huh.

[D]

But fear not, the Solid Verbal will be right there with you through every soul crushing loss and impossible comeback.

[C]

Join us all season long, all year long as we ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport.

[D]

Whether you're a die hard fan or a casual observer, we'll help you make sense of all the chaos and of course celebrate the madness. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.

[C]

We don't just love college football, Ty, we live it.

[D]

Listen to the solid verbal college football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[E]

I had this like overwhelming sensation that I had to call a right then and I just hit call, said, you know, hey, I'm Jacob Schick. I'm the CEO of One Tribe foundation and I just wanted to call and let her know there's a lot of people battling some of the very same things you're battling and there is help out there.

[F]

The Good Stuff podcast season two takes a deep look into One Tribe Foundation, a non profit fighting suicide in the veteran community. September is National Suicide Prevention Month, so join hosts Jacob and Ashley Schick as they bring you to the front lines of One Tribe. Smart mission.

[E]

I was married to a Combat army.

[A]

Veteran and he actually took his own life to suicide. One Tribe saved my life twice. There's a lot of love that flows through this place and it's sincere now. It's a personal mission.

[E]

Don't have to go to any more funerals. You know, I got blown up on a react mission. I ended up having amputation below the knee of my right leg and a traumatic brain injury because I landed on my head.

[A]

Welcome to season two of the Good Stuff.

[F]

Listen to the Good Stuff podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

Bill Belichick's debut happened, started good, hell of an opening drive and then the rest of the game happened.

[E]

He bamboozled in that opening drive, got that opening touchdown and it was pretty much downhill from there. It was, this was a historically bad opener for UNC actually. What's the, what's the state of Bill Belichick? That was, that was pretty rough for him, obviously.

[A]

Yeah.

[E]

NFL coach.

[A]

So this was I when we were talking and we're going to get to Arch Manning in a second. But when the discussion surrounding Arch Manning over the weekend was a lot of, well, what do you expect from himself against that Matt Patricia pro style defense? And I said yesterday, I think that is underselling the impact the Ohio State players had and overselling the impact the actual coach had because to me that was, that was more about a young player who'd never played on the road playing in a brutal environment and the other team having all these pros on defense than it was about Matt Patricia's brilliant scheme. But the, that was not a, a popular take. The popular Take was that Patricia was Dick LeBeau mixed with Vince Lombardi out there. Which would lead you to believe well, if that's what Patricia's defense looks like, holy smokes, wait till you see his mentor Bill Belichick's defense. You know, Monday night against tcu and then what happens? What happened Monday night against TCU was his team with the 70 new players, with all the hype with Jordan and Mia Ham and Lawrence Taylor and all the North Carolina royalty in the stadium got absolutely dog walked for three hours. Because here's the truth more than anything about college football scheme matters to a degree. Talent matters more than anything. Why is college coaching so important for the recruiting for the in this day's nil? The ability to acquire the talent and Edie's college. I looked at yesterday's game and I said TCU has a veteran quarterback who's been with the program for three years. North Carolina is starting a kid that transferred from South Alabama. I don't care that it's at North Carolina. That is not exactly a super scary or intimidating place to play. And I thought TCU, I didn't think they were going to win by 30, but I thought they'd cover the three and a half. And I think folks that expected Belichick to come in and do a snap, turn them into a contender turnaround were foolish. Now, oddly damanze, I think this actually makes it more likely that Bill Belichick is the North Carolina head coach in a year. Yeah, because I the the only way he wasn't going to be the North Carolina head coach in a year was if this went so well that an NFL team was like okay, that's, you know, that's a. He's had his time off. We now want to bring him in. I don't think it's going to go that way. And I do think that it is totally fair and totally inbounds to ask the question does 70 something year old Bill Belichick have his eye on the ball here? That how much of Belichick Mr. No distractions. Do your job. Keep the main thing, the main thing. How much of that has been weakened by this three plus year at this point relationship with wannabe starlet Jordan Hudson? That's fair. That's not out of bounds. That isn't. Ah, you're bringing up the guy's personal life because they have made their relationship super public via Instagram posts, podcast interviews, CBS morning news and via the weirdest business run of trademarking, attempting to trademark gold digger and other weird stuff. That you just know is going to shine the spotlight on the coach and his girlfriend who is. The coach is older than Deman's grandmother and the girlfriend is younger than Daman. That's. That's all fair. And the only way to knock that out and have it just be a side thing is to be great. And not only do I not think they're going to be great, I think they are going. I think the expectations were a touch too high. You watched that game last night and you said to yourself, oh, are they going to have competent quarterback play? That's a fair question. Then you watched that game last night and you said to yourself, oh, does that defense. You've got to assume the defense is well coached. So how do we explain what we saw? Do they just really not have the personnel? Then you ask yourself the question of how long has it been since we have known Bill Belichick is a. An above average talent evaluator. All those things come together for some very nervous times. So now listen, they. They get Charlotte, Richmond and then ucf. I'm not, I'll be totally honest. I don't know how good UCF is supposed to be. This year they will beat Charlotte and Richmond and they don't have. Because they're in the ACC and because of the draw, they have the only juggernaut on their schedules, Clemson. But in a month when they host Clemson, it's going to look like the TCU game, but worse. And if TCU, a team on the fringes of the top 25, but outside of it, can do that to you, then you really worry about what any of the legitimate power five programs are going to do to them. And so I.

[E]

Do you think that anything that happens throughout this season is going to affect his legacy? Can it, can it do that positively or negatively? Or is it too early?

[A]

No, listen, if he went to college football and was awesome, that would positively affect his legacy. Him going to college football and being awful will not, in my opinion negatively affect his legacy, except it will be. It will affect it like this in 30 years. Damanze. When you're talking sports with young people and they're talking about the greatest coaches of all time and they're like, yeah. And you know, and Bill Belichick at that point is like Vince Lombardi, you know what I mean, where they act like what was, you know, what made him great or whatever, you'll be like and really weird end for him, right? He went and coached college and dated this 20 year old and like it kind of, you know the last thing.

[E]

You remember about him.

[A]

Right. But it won't be a thing. My point is this. It won't be a thing that actually sticks to the legacy. It will just be a thing that people who were here for it remember.

[E]

Bring it.

[A]

That's. You know what I mean? But it won't. It won't stick to it for those in the history books. Now, here's where it does hurt his legacy to a degree, at least in my mind. And sorry if we're taking some Internet hits. We got nothing open but the script. So there's. I got no way around that. Oh, there is one thing I can do. Hold on. The. He needed to be really good at North Carolina Demons a. To have a chance to get back to the NFL and run down Shula.

[E]

Yeah.

[A]

So that part. You know what I mean? That part hurts him. But no, this is not his NFL legacy. And listen, I know people are going to throw up the record with Brady. Record without Brady. The problem for that is we all saw, like those of us that saw those first three Patriot championships understand how great they were defensively and that Brady wasn't Brady yet. And those of us that are being fair also remember the final Patriot championship where they scored 13 points in the super bowl and Belichick's defense made Sean McVay and Todd Gurley and Jared Goff look totally inept on the biggest stage. So, like that. That I'm not going to allow, like, the revisionist history on that. But this is a really, a very auspicious end or beginning to the final chapter.

[B]

Hey, this Matt Jones. And I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[C]

I'm Dan. He's Ty.

[D]

Hello.

[C]

And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast.

[D]

Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.

[C]

Join us all season long as we ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport.

[D]

Listen to the solid verbal college football podcasts on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[C]

We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it.

[E]

It's important that we just reassure people that they're not alone. And there is help out there.

[F]

The Good Stuff Podcast Season two takes a deep look into One Tribe Foundation, a nonprofit fighting suicide in the veteran community. September is National Suicide Prevention Month, so join hosts Jacob and Ashley Schick as they bring you to the front lines of One Tribe's mission.

[A]

One Tribe saved my life twice. Welcome to season two of the Good Stuff.

[F]

Listen to the Good Stuff podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[A]

I'm Simone Boyce, host of the Bright side Podcast, and on this week's episode, I'm talking to Olympian World cup champion and podcast host Ashlyn Harris. My worth is not wrapped up in how many things I've won, because what I came to realize is I valued winning so much that once it was over, I got the blues and I was like, this is it for me. It's the pursuit of greatness. It's the journey. It's the people. It's the failures.

[D]

It's the heartache.

[A]

Listen to the Bright side on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast.