← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
What's Wright - Best Of - What's next for Aaron Rodgers? John Harbaugh to Giants, Tomlin LEAVES Steelers, NFL Divisional Predictions | Nick Wright
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- [00:00]
Tara Davis Woodhull
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Dan Orlovsky
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Hunter Woodhull
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- [01:30]
Tara Davis Woodhull
This is US Olympic gold medalist Tara.
- [01:32]
Dan Orlovsky
Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
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Tara Davis Woodhull
As athletes, our lives are about having.
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Dan Orlovsky
A clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.
- [01:40]
Tara Davis Woodhull
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Dan Orlovsky
Learn more at pennymac.com PennyMac Loan Services, LLC equal housing lender NMLS ID 35953 licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply. Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a.
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Tara Davis Woodhull
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Dan Orlovsky
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Dan Orlovsky
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- [02:38]
Nick Wright
Wild Card weekend ended with the Texans defeating the Steelers. Steelers offense couldn't do anything. Texans offense couldn't do anything, but the Texans won the game. When asked about his future after the game, Aaron Rodgers said, I'm not going to make any emotional decisions, but at 42 years old, do you think that this is the end of the road for him?
- [02:57]
Dan Orlovsky
Well, I didn't think that at all going into the game because Rogers had been talking about how he thought he would have one or two teams that would showed interest. The fact that he had seemed to be playing some of his best ball at the end of the year. Steelers made the playoffs, all of that. But Buck and Aikman talked like they knew. The way Buck and Aikman talked at the end of that game and the way ESPN produced the end of that game following Rogers and all of that, it felt to me like they got a heads up that he's planning on retiring. Now if this wasn't already the case thanks to Philip Rivers Couple Game Cameo the long tail of Philip Rivers coming back after five years on the couch is going to be that certainly next year and maybe for the next couple after, if any good team suffers a November or December quarterback injury, Rogers name will be floated and maybe he would come back in a setting like that. You know something the that if next year The Rams are 9 and 4 and Stafford goes down, could, you know, could he come back in that spot? I also think Aaron likes the spotlight enough that I don't think we are going to get a quick resolution on this. I think he's going to take his time. But I do think that last night was the de facto end for Aaron Rodgers and I do want to take some time here to talk about how I will remember and think about Rogers because last night's game will have no real impact on how I think about him down the road. I did think that you saw some things last night that were part and parcel to why a player as talented and generational as Aaron Rodgers was not considered a great leader and was not did not win at the level that his talent would have made you think he was going to win at because there was no less than half a dozen times last night where a play was not made by the Steelers or a pass was missed or the Texans got pressure, quick pressure, and Aaron made it very clear to everyone on the field, in the stadium and at home that that was someone else's fault. A lot of pointing, a lot of gesticulation, a lot of making it very clear to the whole world he screwed up, not me also. And I listen, I don't. I haven't watched the All 22. I don't know if the Texans change something in their coverage, but I do know that I've seen Aaron do this in big spots before. One of his guys let him down with a drop and he simply stopped going to DK Metcalfe, which was one of the reasons I thought the Steelers could win this game was getting DK Metcalf back. DK Metcalf was a featured part of the game plan early. He then had a huge drop and Rogers didn't throw him another pass for two hours.
- [07:01]
Nick Wright
And.
- [07:04]
Dan Orlovsky
That is those things have always been part of the Rogers experience. And. His career is so interesting because it would have seemed impossible. Demons A. You weren't. You're only 12 years old and you were not a big football fan as a little kid. But it would not have seemed believable at all in 2010 that Rogers would never get back to another Super Bowl. It is not different at all from how people thought about Mahomes after his first Super Bowl. Won an mvp, you know, instantly came on the scene and was awesome. Obviously Rogers had to sit, you know, for three years behind Favre, but by. By his second year in the league was considered maybe the best quarterback in football. And if in that moment people had said, Patrick's never making another super bowl, it would have seemed impossible. That's what it felt like for Aaron. And I know the biggest Rogers defenders. And once upon a time I was. I don't know if I was one of the biggest Rogers defenders, but I was certainly more sympathetic to his cause than I've been over the last decade. There are extenuating circumstances and some really unfortunate playoff losses that had nothing to do with him. Okay, so his first ever playoff game. Demons a. They scored 45 points and lost in overtime.
- [08:54]
Nick Wright
Wow.
- [08:55]
Dan Orlovsky
The. The first ever playoff game was a 51:45 lost the Arizona Cardinals. Now, the loss was on a strip sack returned for a touchdown. But that you score 45 points, that should be enough.
- [09:09]
Nick Wright
Yeah.
- [09:10]
Dan Orlovsky
Second year in the playoffs, they win the Super Bowl. I'm now going to jump to the playoff losses that you feel like he has no culpability on 2012. They score 31 in the divisional round against San Francisco. The Niners and Colin Kaepernick score 45. And just the packers defense has no answer whatsoever. 2016, the Falcons put up 44 on the packers defense in the NFC championship game. Feel like there's not much you can do there. The very next year. 2019, the Niners and a rushing attack that I think in that game they threw the ball. Was that the game? They threw the ball eight times. Yep. The Niners threw the ball eight times and scored 37 points to go to the Super Bowl. Those three playoff losses and those are all huge ones, it's fair to say. What did you want from Aaron? What more could he have done? I'll add one more. The year they're defending their championship, they're 15 and 1. They're at home against the New York Giants. The Giants scored 37 points in freezing cold and sent him home to go on to win.
- [10:51]
Nick Wright
The super guys never had a defense.
- [10:54]
Dan Orlovsky
Right. Those defenses were brutal. Right, right. There are some other ones though that, that was not the the story. And people remember the Seattle NFC Championship game and what they remember is the packers were up 16 nothing and 19 to 7 demands A. With three minutes left in that game of 19 to 7, with three minutes left in the game, they end up allowing a fake field goal touchdown. They allow an onside kick.
- [11:40]
Nick Wright
They then same game don't get, that's tough.
- [11:43]
Dan Orlovsky
They don't get the coin toss. In overtime, Russell Wilson hits a 35 yard pass. They go to the super bowl, end up losing to Tom Brady and the Patriots. What people don't remember so much about that game was Rogers was awful. He had one touchdown, two picks, a 56 rating and they couldn't score in the red zone. The next year they're playing a Cardinals team. This is the game where Rogers hits back to back Hail Mary's to force overtime. And what they. And when I, when I say back to back Hail Marys again, if people can't visualize the situation, they are in a fourth and 20 demons a on their own four yard line with 55 seconds left. And Rogers hits a 60 yard pass. They then rush to the line of scrimmage, couple deep shots and then five seconds left on the 41, Rogers hits another Hail Mary. He threw 101 yards of passes on that possession to Jeff Janis to tie a playoff game. And then on the very first possession of overtime, the Cardinals go right down the field and score the first play of overtime. Larry Fitzgerald takes it 75 yards. They score the next play. But in that game prior to those two Hail Marys, the Packers had 14 points. Rogers had a passer rating in the 50s again had 150 yards, one touchdown, one pick. And then obviously people remember the very end NFC championship game against Tom Brady in Tampa is really bad in the first half. They dig a huge hole. They Then are down 8 with 2 and a half minutes left. They can't punch it in. Laflora kicks the weird field goal. And then his final playoff game with the Steelers, the Niners did not score an offensive touchdown, but Rogers once again had a really weird game where all he would do was target Devonte Adams and they end up losing the game on a blocked punt touchdown 13 to 10 with Rogers kind of throwing away the final possession. So well we with all that said, he's a four time MVP who has the all time record for passer rating and as far as the all time record for lowest interception percentage and at times looked like the most physically gifted player the position's ever seen. But the combination of his what I would call prickly leadership style, plus it's not me, it's you when things went wrong, plus not playing to an Aaron Rodgers level consistently in the playoffs is why a guy that good is going to finish his career 11 and 10 in the playoffs. Or is it 11 and 11 now? Oh, 11 and 11 in the playoffs because they lost yesterday. And with only the one trip to the super bowl. If I were doing the all time quarterback rankings, he has the talent of a no doubt top five guy, but he can't. And I understand it's become very in vogue to throw, you know, a lot of people in top fives. You're not going to find a bigger Matt Stafford fan than me. But the idea that Stafford is a Super bowl win away from being top five all time quarterback is obviously on its face ludicrous. But if we're talking about the greatest quarterbacks ever, you have Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Montana. You can argue about the order for them. For me, John Elway and the I don't know what you want to do with the old folks. Johnny Unitis, Bart Starr, Otto Graham, those guys. But they've got to be accounted for in some degree. I can't speak to them, but I can't pretend you can't do an NBA top 10 and not include Russell and Wilt. I don't know that you can do an NF top 10 quarterbacks and not include United Star and Graham. So I don't know what you want to do with them. But now we're at eight names and then we can start having the Steve Young, Brett Favreau, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, discussion and I know my colleagues are about to put Josh Allen in there as well as the most talented players. You see Josh Allen wild card weekend.
- [17:36]
Nick Wright
Got a touchdown on a touch push.
- [17:38]
Dan Orlovsky
The oh yeah. And so I think it's fair if this is the end for Rogers, one of the greatest players ever who underachieved. There is an element of Wilt Chamberlain to Rogers in that a uniquely talented player that up to that point in his career we had never seen anyone quite like him but didn't quite win at the level that that talent would have demanded. And it was because of Simone leadership and stylistic failings. So there's my Rogers piece of it. I know you want to ask me about the Tomlin piece.
- [18:35]
Nick Wright
So there's rumors about them wanting to move on from Tomlin, the Steelers at that. Do you think that they should?
- [18:42]
Dan Orlovsky
I don't. I don't think that they should but I would understand if they did that these playoff per it's not just that he's now tied Marvin Lewis for most consecutive losses in the playoffs at seven. It's not just that it'll now be 10 years since they won a playoff game at a minimum. It's that they have been wholly non competitive in these playoff games. The first one. So well, if we're going to do the full streak, I guess I got to be fair. The first one was the conference championship game to the Patriots and again you're playing an all time Patriots teams conference championship game but you instantly fell down 10 nothing. You're down 36 to 9 with minutes left. You lose 36 to 17. So you get annihilated in that football game. That's loss one, lost two on this Tomlin losing streak. You're at home with the buy playing Blake Bortles Jacksonville Jaguars and 20 minutes into the game demons a you're down 21 to nothing and you end up scoring a bunch of points. You know you cut it to seven a couple times but you trail the entirety of the game. You lose 45, 42 and they get grizzlier from there. Lost three on this playoff losing streak. You're playing the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield you are down 28 to nothing in the first quarter and you lose 48 to 37. Game two or I'm sorry, game two. Where are we at game five? Game five, game five of the playoff losing streak. You're playing the Chiefs. You go up seven nothing on a TJ Watt strip sack in the second quarter. You then find yourself down after being up seven nothing 35 to 7, 35 to 7. Game six of the playoff losing streak last year against Buffalo. Midway through the second quarter you're down 21 to nothing and so you lose 31. 17.
- [21:47]
Nick Wright
If they keep Tomlin, he has to focus on offense.
- [21:51]
Dan Orlovsky
The.
- [21:53]
Nick Wright
Well, it's just not.
- [21:55]
Dan Orlovsky
Hold on, hold on. Just because I got that wrong. That wasn't the. I got the year wrong on that last one. The Bills loss. That was not last year. When you're down. That was two years ago. Last year's loss was to the Ravens where once again at halftime you're down 21 to nothing. And so. And then this year was a weird one because you were in it but your offense could do nothing and then you get annihilated by in the final score. So I would understand if Steelers fans are like, I'm. I've had my full here fill here. But I still think he is a really good coach and I would be scared of getting on that coaching carousel again. Now what were you saying to Monze?
- [22:51]
Nick Wright
No, I just think that maybe focus on something else. Bring in somebody else to help Tom. And on the offensive side of things it's clear that he doesn't. It's not his side of the ball. I think so. But that's a huge problem.
- [23:04]
Dan Orlovsky
So here's the thing though. So I think that makes sense in general, except for in these playoff games last night notwithstanding, the defense has been getting just absolutely crushed. Yeah. Now I, I want to give the Texans their credit and we'll talk more about the Texans on Thursday's show. Weird game because C.J. was awful. C.J. was awful. And it didn't matter because that defense was that good and that defense was that ferocious. But you saw how tough it is to do business that way because as great as that defense was and as inept as that Steelers offense was, that was a one point game or a four point game deep into the game. Yeah, it felt like they were one busted coverage away at any point from Holy shit, the Steelers are going to steal this. I mean that game. 7 to 6 entering the fourth quarter. It's 106 in the fourth quarter with the Steelers having the ball before the Rankins fumble return touchdown that essentially ended the game. That Texans defense and Dico Ryan's deserve massive credit. But if that's how that offense looked against a good but not great Steelers defense in a game they had Nico Collins for a lot of next week, that defense is going to have to be just as good because I don't know what that Texans offense is going to be able to do. And by the way, I want to say something. The Nico Collins thing. Nico Collins pretty clearly got concussed on like in the first quarter game.
- [25:02]
Nick Wright
Yes. Yeah.
- [25:04]
Dan Orlovsky
And they, they put him back out there and I understand it's the playoffs and I get. They put him back out there again. This is, I, this is naked reckless speculation by me. It looked to me like he got concussed on the first drive of the game. They checked him for it. They put him back out there and then when he got hit again later in the game, they, it was such a bad concussion at that point. They said he didn't know where he was. He tried to walk back to the huddle and they had to cart him off. That's brutal, man. And again, maybe it was just coincidence that it looked like he got concussed. He didn't. And then a pretty typical hit gave him one of the worst concussions of the NFL season. But that's hard to sell. Me and the Patriots, Christian Gonzalez got a concussion, tried to go back out there and they prevented him from going back out there and he went in the protocol maybe so maybe both those guys are missing next week. It would be impossible for me to think Nico Collins going to be able to play next week. Credit to the Texans defense, maybe. You know what, Damanze, maybe Caleb should call CJ and give him some pointers on. On how to get back to the level he needs to be at.
- [26:35]
Nick Wright
Yeah, he should. That'd be good.
- [26:38]
Dan Orlovsky
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- [28:54]
Hunter Woodhull
From public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures you've never been.
- [30:03]
Tara Davis Woodhull
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- [31:17]
Tara Davis Woodhull
This is U.S. olympic gold medalist Tara.
- [31:19]
Hunter Woodhull
Davis Woodhull, and I'm U.S. paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
- [31:23]
Tara Davis Woodhull
As athletes, our lives are about having.
- [31:24]
Dan Orlovsky
A clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.
- [31:28]
Tara Davis Woodhull
So when it came to getting the best mortgage, we chose PennyMac. PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you.
- [31:35]
Dan Orlovsky
Learn more at pennymac.com pennymac loan services, llc/housing housing lender nmls id 35953 licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply.
- [31:48]
Nick Wright
John Harbaugh agreed to go to the Giants last night and a little bit before that, and shortly after our last show, Tomlin had stepped down as the Steelers coach. We'll talk about that in a little, in a little moment. But what do you think about Harbaugh going over to the Giants?
- [32:03]
Dan Orlovsky
Sorry, I. I don't say this often, but I totally agree with Dan Orlovsky. This is the best thing to happen to the Giants since they won the Super Bowl. They Sincerely, the There are There are two things no, there are three things that really matter in the NFL to being a perennial contender and avoiding being a perennial laughingstock. The first one is avoid having atrocious ownership. So the the Giant stadium mates, the jets, they're they, they just have atrocious ownership that will always be in their way. I think the Browns have atrocious ownership that will always be in their way. The Giants have had one of those three kind of benchmarks down and they have good to very good ownership in the Maris. The second thing you need is a legitimate, true professional head coach. They now have that for the first time since Tom Coughlin. Obviously the third leg of that stool, if you will, is the quarterback. I don't think they have that, but maybe they do. And if not, you'll see how you can paper it together while you tried to find the quarterback. But if ownership will stay out of the way and you have a legitimate head coach, once you have the quarterback in place, you can instantly contend. The Bears and Patriots are showing you that right now. That and I've said this before, I will say it again. If you have the right coach and the right quarterback, the rebuild is somewhat instant. And if you have had the same coach and quarterback for two years, not four years, not six years, two years and the team is not competing at the very least where playoffs are the expectation, then you don't have the right coach or you don't have the right quarterback. There are no instances of awesome coach, awesome quarterback, but it took us four years to get it together. That flatly doesn't happen. And so the Giants got the best coach that was truly available. And and I say that because I don't think Tomlin is truly available. I think Tomlin is going to take a year off and survey the landscape because none of these jobs are great jobs. I ranked them on the TV show yesterday but nine to one the way I had it. Let me pull up my exact list. Number nine was the Browns because of that ownership problem, because of the cap issues created by the Watson contract and because they don't have a quarterback. Number eight is the Titans to me. Now if you love Cam Ward then that job moves up the list. But even if you love Cam Ward, they only have one other player on the roster you could love in Jeff Simmons. And ever since Amy Adams Strunk took over, they have just been a revolving door of front offices. They move off variable. It's been a disaster. Number seven is the Dolphins. Again, no quarterback. They have not had a head coach there since Don Shula last longer than four years and they're in a rough cap position. The Cardinals, I put it six because I think it's a very tough division and they don't have the quarterback. The Falcons are an interesting one. Super soft division, have won seven or eight games each of the last in seven of the eight last years. They do have some talent and I don't think Blank's a terrible owner. So that you know, it makes that A decent job. I put the Giants at four. They've got money, they've got a D line, they might have a quarterback. I'm skeptical. But that also is a, I think not the hardest division. The Raiders, I put it three purely because I think if you believe in Mendoza, that number one pick plus the fact that you have a ton of money to spend makes that somewhat attractive. But that to me feels like a better job for a young offensive minded guy that wants to grow with Mendoza than 62 year old John Harbaugh. Now the flip side of that is while the Raiders don't mind paying coaches, the Raiders since Art shell which was 1994, in the last 30 years the they have had two head coaches get more than three, get at least three years. Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden twice and they have had a dozen other coaches get less than three years. So they will. That hamster wheel will spin. And then the Steelers 2, Ravens 1. Obviously Harbaugh wasn't going to the Ravens. The Steelers, I think that they were not going to hire a coach his age and because they want that coach to be there for 15 some years ideally. And so I think the Giants are a great job for him. I don't expect a snap contention but I do think that all of a sudden the giants could be a 500ish team next year. I think that's a legitimate possibility and I want to see what Jackson Dart looks like. Don't love scatter Boo and neighbors both coming off major injuries but this is a great day for Giants fans. Flatly this is probably the happiest you've been since the boat party playoff game against the packers with Odell and Eli at the end of Eli and it's the best day for your franchise since you won a Super Bowl. All right, let's talk a little Tomlin here to Monze.
- [39:41]
Nick Wright
Yeah. So Reed is now the longest tenured coach over there in Kansas City. Do you think that Tomlin's potentially waiting to take over Kansas City?
- [39:51]
Dan Orlovsky
So here's. I don't think that necessarily, but I also don't think that's crazy. So the last head coach of the Steelers was Bill Cower. Bill Cower left after 15 years, went to CBS and for about five consecutive coaching cycles to Monze, Bill Cower was the number one candidate and he never left the job. He's still doing TV on cbs. He just stayed there. I do think it's on the board that Tomlin goes and does TV and never stops and is like I can make. I'M not making coaching money doing this. I mean he was making $25 million a year reportedly from the Steelers. But I'm making millions and millions of dollars for 2% of the work. I love it. So I think it's on the board. It wouldn't be my bet, but I think it's on the board that Tomlin does not coach again. I think that's possible.
- [41:08]
Nick Wright
Okay.
- [41:08]
Dan Orlovsky
And because he's going to have such a great job, he can be and because he's young enough, he can be very choosy. So for Mike Tomlin, my, if I had to bet on the next job for Mike Tomlin, my bet would be the Philadelphia Eagles a year from now. I think that the is a job that will come open in the next few years and that Tomlin, that's a, that's a great job. So when we're thinking of it so the reason I don't think the Chiefs thing is a ludicrous idea is because at some point during Patrick's career Andy's going to retire and the moment that happens, that becomes one of the greatest job openings of all time. Again, assuming when is that coming? Well, I mean Andy's older than you think and so I mean andy is in two months he turned 68. So you know, again the reason I think it's not far fetched is because, or not insane is because I could see Tomlin staying in TV for more than one year. Sean Payton stayed for one year and then the Broncos traded a pick to the Saints to get him. I if Tomlin comes back in the next two years, his team would have to trade, do some type of compensation with the Steelers. I don't think the Steelers though would throw up too many roadblocks. But I could see you just got to think about what are great jobs that realistically could come open. The packers are a very good job and it looks like LA floor's you know, a little tenuous at the moment. The Eagles I expect to come open the Bills at some point. Let's see, let's see how this year goes. And ne like the those like McDermott.
- [43:35]
Nick Wright
Is, is Baltimore insane? Like I know we don't have a coach right now. Maybe we get a coach doesn't work.
- [43:42]
Dan Orlovsky
Well that's the thing. So I mean I think Baltimore is insane because it's open now. No, I just think because it's open now and he's not take, you know, he's not going there right, right now. And and so the what I was saying about McDermott is McDermott's kind of on the perma warm seat and he could end that this year. They win the super bowl. He'll be the coach there for probably the rest of Allen's career. Zach Taylor and the Bengals. The problem there is I don't know that that's a good job even though Joe Burrows awesome because of ownership and so you just, you look around. But my money would be that Mike Tomlin is going to be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in a year. That's where I, that's where I would put my money. But I don't think I also, I think there is a chance that in three years he's still doing TV and he comes and what pulls him away from that is Andy Reid retiring. I think that's possible. All right, I know you got one more follow up.
- [45:03]
Nick Wright
Do you think this eliminates any chance of Rogers coming back or at least at the start of the season for next year?
- [45:08]
Dan Orlovsky
He's def. Well, it certainly eliminates any chance of him coming back to the Steelers. Certain. And I don't think Roger is going to be a week one starter for anybody next year. I still think he might play again, but it would be, you know, a mid season addition after an injury. By the way, if you're thinking about upgrading to the all new iPhone 17 Pro, designed to be the most powerful iPhone ever, but you're also thinking about the traffic on your way to the store or transferring all your data. Good news. When you order a new phone online with Boost Mobile, they'll send an expert to your home. How about that? Or home or work to deliver your brand new iPhone Pro and get you set up on Boost Mobile within minutes. No hassle. So you get the new iPhone, it comes right to you and a tech comes in. Get all your stuff transferred, get you set up on the network. Visit Boost mobile.com to get started. Delivery available for select devices purchased@boost mobile.com terms of course do apply.
- [46:12]
Hunter Woodhull
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- [48:25]
Tara Davis Woodhull
Hey, this is U.S. olympic gold medalist.
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Hunter Woodhull
Tara Davis Woodhull, and I'm U.S. paralympic.
- [48:29]
Dan Orlovsky
Gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
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Tara Davis Woodhull
As athletes, our lives are about having.
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Dan Orlovsky
A clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.
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Tara Davis Woodhull
So when it came to getting the best mortgage, we chose PennyMac. PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you.
- [48:43]
Dan Orlovsky
Learn more at pennymac.com PennyMac Loan Services, LLC equal housing lender and MLS ID 35953 licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply. All right, it's time now for Nick's Picks. Reminder, all lines from our friends at Hard Rock Bet Damage. We're just going to go in order of the Games. Go ahead.
- [49:09]
Nick Wright
First off, you've got Buffalo plus one at Denver. Who would have thought?
- [49:13]
Dan Orlovsky
Yeah, listen, I think that the Bills. I understand the Bills are down to three. And it'll be four receivers when they elevate McCall Hardman, I don't think that's going to matter that much. And it might actually as long as those four guys can stay healthy, slightly play to their advantage because it will force them to monze to be in a bunch of 12 personnel. One running back, two tight end personnel and that's where the Bills are at their best anyway. Yeah, the Bills past defense is the strength of their defense. I think that is going to impact Bo Nicks. I think Josh Allen is not going to be impacted at all by the altitude in Denver. He went to college and played his home games in Wyoming which is at an actual higher altitude. And I just think, I don't think the Broncos were actually better than the Bills this year. I know one, I know they won 14 games and the Bills won what 11 games. 12. I don't even if they remember if they won 11 or 12. I to me I think the Bills are better and I think we have overstated how vulnerable the Bills are. They have a great running back, they have a great offensive line, they have a very good pass defense and they have a the best quarterback left in the playoffs. I think Jacksonville is bet. Jacksonville right now I think is better than Denver and the Bills just beat the Jags. I really like the Bills in this spot and the other piece of it is if the Bills fall down double digits obviously it's that's a rough spot to be in. But they have come back in those spots throughout this year. They have trailed at halftime a bunch this year. They've been an unbelievable second half team. If the Broncos fall down double digits, I just don't think they have a path forward.
- [51:24]
Nick Wright
Yeah.
- [51:25]
Dan Orlovsky
And I know they did it against Philly early in the season. That's the only instance. This is a step up in class for the Broncos who had the league second easiest schedule. I this is my favorite pick of the weekend is the Bills plus one in Denver. Bills win this game 27 to 13 and it's not some close classic. The Bills win. The Bills are in control of this game and win this game and Bo Nix makes a big mistake in it. That's my official prediction for how the Broncos season ends next I'm there with.
- [52:07]
Nick Wright
You San Francisco to PL that +7 at Seattle.
- [52:12]
Dan Orlovsky
All right. And so I forgot so you're. You also have Bills plus one.
- [52:16]
Nick Wright
Yeah, the line had shifted. I think I had chosen. I chose them minus one and then. Yeah, I'll definitely take them plus one too.
- [52:23]
Dan Orlovsky
Yeah. Not a Huge. Listen, the lines, the, the these one point lines flip back and forth a bit. It's not a huge difference, obviously, but you'd rather get the one point than give the one point. But yeah, I think the Bills win potentially by margin and then I am taking the. The Niners plus seven at Seattle. I also expect Seattle to win. Yeah, I just. And if you listen to yesterday's show, you probably my analysis was expecting Seattle to win. So maybe you're surprised by this. This is just a lot of points when I think Seattle is going to be incredibly conservative from an offensive game plan standpoint because they aren't going to want to run the risk that Darnold sees a few ghosts make some mistakes and the Niners all of a sudden are in control of the game.
- [53:20]
Nick Wright
And.
- [53:22]
Dan Orlovsky
I think the Niners have shown even in week 18 with the defense as banged up as it was, Seattle only scored 13 points in that game.
- [53:35]
Jacob Goldstein
Game.
- [53:36]
Dan Orlovsky
So there's something about Robert Salah and in week one, they, they held the Niners to what, 17 points in that game. They once they lost, The Niners won 17, 13. So they. I'm sorry, they held Seattle, I said it wrong to 13 in both of their matchups. So I don't think Seattle is going to be able to put up a big number. And so 20 to 14, 21, 17, maybe even 13 to like.
- [54:17]
Nick Wright
I wonder what the over under on that game.
- [54:20]
Dan Orlovsky
Say it again.
- [54:21]
Nick Wright
I wonder what the over under is going to be on that game.
- [54:24]
Dan Orlovsky
Well, I mean we can find what is the total in that game right now. My guess.
- [54:28]
Nick Wright
Oh wait, it's 45.
- [54:31]
Dan Orlovsky
It's 45.
- [54:32]
Nick Wright
45. Yeah. Kind of surprises me.
- [54:35]
Dan Orlovsky
I'd take that feels high.
- [54:37]
Nick Wright
I'd take the under. Yeah.
- [54:39]
Dan Orlovsky
Yeah. I, we don't really do totals in this on this show. But I would take the under if it's the game script. I'm describing all of those. 45 is a big number for in how I see this game going now. I imagine Bears Rams total is gosh, 53 and a half.
- [55:02]
Nick Wright
49.
- [55:04]
Dan Orlovsky
49. Oh, that's surprising. So I was way off on that. Maybe that's why we don't do totals. I guess that's probably a weather component because it's going to be so cold.
- [55:15]
Nick Wright
Yeah.
- [55:17]
Dan Orlovsky
But I expect there to be. I think Bears Rams is going to be a shootout and I think Seahawks Niners is going to be a. Because the Niners are going to try to limit possessions, run the ball. But I just, I. The Niners getting seven and I Don't think they win. I do think they cover it. Sounds like you're with me on it.
- [55:41]
Nick Wright
Yeah, I'm taking San Francisco plus the seven. Definitely there. Next New England minus three versus Houston.
- [55:52]
Dan Orlovsky
New England's at home with the far, far, far better quarterback.
- [55:58]
Nick Wright
Damn.
- [55:59]
Dan Orlovsky
They just faced a very, very tough defense. Houston's is better, but still a tough defense. So they're kind of ready for the challenge, if you will. Meanwhile, Houston's defense just played an offense that had no plan and whose quarterback was totally immobile. Drake may, on the other hand, obviously can and will beat you with his legs. I think this is a good game, but I'll, I'll say 2420 or 2417 that that range for New England and I think the Texans this year are 12 and oh, when they get to 20 points, I don't think though they do get to 20 points. So I will take New England minus the three. I am, I think they are a scary, scary team. If the Chargers had an opportunity to clip them when Drake had his first playoff game jitters and the offense could do nothing, it was shameful that the Chargers didn't have the lead going into halftime of that game or weren't even tied going into halftime. Now the Patriots, I think, have their legs underneath them. You don't love the fact that Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion the last game, but Nico Collins suffered a concussion too. So you know, if they. I'm more confident Nico's going to miss the game than Gonzalez, but if they both miss the game, it kind of cancels each other out. So I'll lay the three points with the Pats.
- [57:39]
Nick Wright
Unfortunately, or fortunately, whatever you want to call it, we are three for three right now.
- [57:44]
Dan Orlovsky
It's going to be hard for me.
- [57:45]
Nick Wright
To catch up with you because I'm taking doing it.
- [57:48]
Jacob Goldstein
Yeah.
- [57:49]
Nick Wright
And then lastly, you have the Rams minus four at Chicago.
- [57:54]
Dan Orlovsky
Yeah, I, I just don't trust that the Bears defense is going to be able to slow down the Rams at all. And I honestly think even though it's going to be freezing cold and I know there's a lot of trends I'm going against about home dogs more than a field goal and dome teams outdoors. Matt Stafford played more than a decade in the NFC North. He played on the road in Chicago and on the road in Green Bay every single year. Matt Stafford has plenty of experience playing in the cold. And there's a lot of fake news stats going around about Stafford being like 1 and 8 in cold weather games. It's there, it's Just not accurate. I just think the Rams defenses or the Rams offense is too good for the Bears defense. And I think losing your starting left tackle in the wild card round for the Bears is a really tough spot. This was an unbelievable season of nothing but steps in the right direction. But I think it ends for the Bears this weekend and I think this is 42 to 27 Rams where they score on like three of their first four possessions in with touchdowns and they keep it rolling into the second half.
- [59:21]
Nick Wright
Oh yeah, I got Chicago plus the points here. I think there's. I'm giving them a chance to win the game. I think they can win the game. I think that it'll at least be a close game. You think that's going to be much more dominant on the Ram side. But yeah, I'm take Chicago. There's your chance.
- [59:36]
Dan Orlovsky
Well, listen, at least there's a. And there's a chance for me to make up one game standings against you going into the final weekend. All right. And then a bonus pick to Monze.
- [59:46]
Nick Wright
We have a bonus pick before we get to the other bets. So the national championship game is this Monday or next Monday, whatever you want to call it. It's Miami and Indiana and the line is set at Indiana minus eight and a half and it's also at Hard Rock Stadium. Who are you taking?
- [60:04]
Dan Orlovsky
I'll take Miami plus the points and I'll take Miami on the money line plus 260.
- [60:11]
Nick Wright
Oh, juice it up a little bit.
- [60:13]
Dan Orlovsky
Here is what I think. People are failing to recognizing their handicapping of this game as great. And Indiana has been great this year. Indiana was neck and neck all season long with Ohio State. They both went in to that Big Ten championship game undefeated. It was Ohio State, you know, led at halftime of that game. Indiana takes the lead mid third quarter and then hangs on for the win 13 to 10. That, that is obviously a great, great win for Indiana. Indiana during this playoff has been utterly dominant. So why do I bring that up? I bring it up because Miami a couple weeks later played Ohio State and Miami beat Ohio State 24 to 10 or 24 to 14, pardon me, and really controlled that entire game. So the idea that Indiana is just in a different weight class than Miami is right now, I don't agree with. I think that Indiana has played better in this playoff than Miami has. Indiana has just dog walked their two opponents and Miami has not done that in any of their games. And Indiana maybe is just an all time team. But getting eight and a half points in Miami is to me far too many and if it's close late I I like Indiana. I like Miami's chances so I'll take Miami on the money line. I also think there are going to be a lot of NFL betters this weekend to monze that whatever bets they make on the NFL playoffs, they include Indiana on the money line as part of a ad. You know, add a little juice to my bet free money parlay and those tend to screw people over. You've won your bets in the weekend, you just need the big Moneyline favorite to cash Monday night and it doesn't work. So I will take Miami plus the 8 and a half and Miami on the money line. Damanze your picks are Buffalo plus one, the Niners plus seven, New England minus three, Chicago plus four, the one we disagree with and Miami plus the eight and a half.
- [63:12]
Tara Davis Woodhull
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Dan Orlovsky
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Tara Davis Woodhull
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Dan Orlovsky
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Tara Davis Woodhull
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- [63:41]
Dan Orlovsky
The new era of UFC on Paramount plus Comes out swinging. Highlight machine Justin Gagey collides with Patty the Baddie Pimblett in a must see high octane main event. Plus Sean Suga o' Malley faces off against Song Yedong in a stand up war filled with high level striking. Pay per view just got knocked out. Stream UFC 324 live on January 24th only on Paramount. Visit paramountplus.com UFC to get started this.
- [64:11]
Jacob Goldstein
Is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out odoo@o d o o.com that's o d o o.com.
- [64:45]
Tara Davis Woodhull
Janice Torres here.
- [64:47]
Dan Orlovsky
And I'm Austin Hankwitz. We host the podcast Mind the Business Small Business Success produced by Ruby Studio in partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.
- [64:55]
Tara Davis Woodhull
We're back for season four to talk to some incredible small business owners.
- [64:59]
Dan Orlovsky
The big thing about working at tech is that it's ever evolving, ever changing. Everyone's a rookie. That's how fast the industry is changing. So what I'm really excited about is to be part of that change. So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [65:14]
Tara Davis Woodhull
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.