The Herd with Colin Cowherd: What's Wright — Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford Predictions w/ Nick Schulman (Sept 13, 2025)

Episode Overview

In this special bonus episode of "What's Wright with Nick Wright," poker Hall of Famer and boxing analyst Nick Schulman returns for an in-depth look at the much-anticipated Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford super fight. Host Nick Wright interviews Schulman about the magnitude, context, and technical nuances of the bout—framed by one of boxing’s rarest leaps in weight class—and explores what victory could mean for either fighter’s legacy. The conversation blends high-level expertise, actionable betting talk, and big-picture sports fandom in a lively, accessible style.

Main Themes & Purpose

• Supreme Anticipation: The episode presents the Canelo vs. Crawford fight as perhaps the “fight of the decade,” with historic implications for both boxing and its mainstream appeal.
• Expert Analysis: Nick Schulman, renowned for his dual expertise in poker, gambling, and especially boxing, breaks down the matchup with rare insight, making a case for why Terence “Bud” Crawford might pull off one of the sport’s most audacious upsets.
• Bets & Legacy: Discussion revolves heavily around the implications for each man’s legacy, the betting markets, and how to interpret the odds given the unusual nature of Crawford's two-division leap up in weight.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Table: Why Is This Fight So Important?

• Weight Jumping Rarity

  • Terence Crawford is leaping from 154 lbs to fight Canelo Alvarez at 168 lbs, a move Schulman calls “quite rare” in the modern era. Reference to historic analogs like Pacquiao and Sugar Ray Leonard’s leaps (08:07).
    • “To move up two weight classes like this is somewhat unprecedented in the modern era.” — Nick Schulman [08:54]

• Motivations and Mindset

  • Initially, Schulman believed Crawford was cashing out, but changed his mind, sensing true belief from Crawford’s camp (08:56). He now both personally and strategically picks Crawford to win.
    • “I think he believes he will win. I think his team believes he'll win, and I believe he'll win.” — Nick Schulman [09:48]

Betting Lines & Public Perception

• Market Sentiment
  • Canelo’s a favorite, though not overwhelmingly so, “like Packers money line over Commanders”—implying an upset is plausible (10:28).
  • Public and media often cite size as reason for doubting Crawford, but Schulman says such takes miss Crawford’s generational talent (11:24, 12:54).

Schulman’s Crawford Analysis: Resume & Skillset

• Personal Betting Experience

  • Schulman has unwaveringly bet on Crawford since being wowed by his in-ring intelligence and versatility (13:07–14:41).
    • “…ever since then, I … have actually been business partners with Bud. The business plan … he fights, and I bet on him every single fucking time. And guess what, Nick? Business has been booming.” — Nick Schulman [14:24]

• Highlight Victories

  • The discussion features mini-breakdowns of:

    • Kell Brook Knockout – Praised for incredible timing.
    • Jose Benavidez Jr. – Stopped him with a “crazy uppercut sequence.”
    • Sean Porter Stoppage – Famous corner exchange:"He's up? How? … Bud, it's time to go." Crawford then wins by stoppage.
    • David Avenisyan KO – “Put him out cold in the middle of the ring.”
    • Errol Spence Jr. – Defensive counters and timing highlighted as generational (22:48–26:51).

    “He landed the shortest little right hand … timing beats speed and precision beats power … shocked Brook to where he kind of didn't know where he was.” — Nick Schulman [22:48]

• Addressing Criticism of Opposition

  • Schulman rebuts the idea that Crawford’s resume is weak, detailing the elite quality and context of his victims (15:19).

Canelo’s Legacy & Current Form

• Origins and Style

  • Canelo turned pro at 15, has “fought everybody,” and reinvented himself as more of a power-punching pressure fighter over time (33:48–34:45).
    • “He's a global superstar. He's an icon.” — Nick Schulman [34:45]

• Where Is Canelo in His Career?

  • Schulman suggests Canelo has shown signs of age/slowing (“stuck in the mud”) but remains a tactical, dangerous champion (35:22). His recent performances have been good but not at his explosive best.

    • “He doesn't look like prime Canelo to me, but he's very intelligent … interviews … sharp … I believe he will be prepared … but after 65 professional fights...you never know. I mean, Father Time is undefeated.” — Nick Schulman [36:41]

    • Nick Wright notes the irony that Crawford is biologically older but “the younger fighter at this point.”

Activity Levels & Team Chemistry

• Inactivity vs. Consistency

  • Canelo has fought more often than Crawford recently, but Schulman points out Crawford “lives in the gym” and compares him to Mayweather’s year-round conditioning (30:04).

• Team Dynamics

  • Schulman praises Crawford’s stable, humble, and innovative team, specifically naming trainer Brian “Bomac” McIntyre (31:19).

The State of Boxing & Superfight Context

• Historic Magnitude

  • Schulman places this fight among the biggest ever: “up there with Mayweather-Pacquiao, Tyson-Holyfield, Canelo-Triple G 1 & 2, Canelo-Floyd.” (44:53–46:45)
    • “From a purest standpoint, this is up there with anything … I think any boxing fan can recall in quite a while.” — Nick Schulman [45:02]

• Saudi Influence, Purse Questions, and Boxing’s Future

  • Discussion of Saudi money changing the game, with Canelo and Crawford both potentially making unprecedented sums; Dana White’s involvement and the proliferation of titles is analyzed for its pros/cons (38:46–40:48).

Betting Strategy & Predictions

How Will the Fight Likely Play Out? (47:12+)

• Canelo Victory:

  • Canelo would need to “win with sublime skills,” either by clear decision or possible late stoppage if the weight difference is just too much.
    • “I suppose [Canelo could win by] backing Bud down and just wailing on him with huge shots ... winning a clear decision where Bud is wounded ... or even getting the stoppage.” — Nick Schulman [47:12]

• Crawford Victory:

  • Schulman picks Crawford. Expects Bud to “take his time, find his openings, and beat the brakes off him,” believing he’s live even for a late stoppage (which would shock most). His belief is rooted in Crawford’s extraordinary ring IQ and timing.
    • “I think Bud is live for the stoppage, which is something like 10 to 1. No one thinks it's possible. I do. I think he could land something that Canelo does not see …” — Nick Schulman [51:09]

• On Judges/Scoring:

  • Historically tough to get a decision against Canelo (“you can’t beat Canelo in Vegas”), but Schulman senses “a changing of the tides,” perhaps more fair judging this time (53:52–55:34).

Betting Insights & Tactics

• Current Odds

  • Canelo is about -165 to win outright; Crawford around +140 to +180 depending on timing.
  • Prop bets: Canelo by decision ≈ +130 (as per Hard Rock Bet). Crawford by stoppage (KO/TKO) is around 10:1 [50:53].

• When to Bet

  • Schulman monitors the lines constantly, suggesting Bud backers may want to wait for late “hometown” money on Canelo from Mexican fans, which could move the price in Crawford backers' favor (56:16).

    “For something like this [fight] is constantly refreshing the line ... a lot of Mexicans are going to come to town and start firing Canelo. So my theory ... is that if you want to bet Bud, ... wait.” — Nick Schulman [56:16]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Betting Trust:

  • “Ever since then ... I’ve actually been business Partners with Bud. ... He fights, and I bet on him every single fucking time. ... Business has been booming.” — Nick Schulman [14:24]

• On the Fight’s Rarity:

  • “To move up two weight classes like this is somewhat unprecedented in the modern era.” — Nick Schulman [08:54]

• On Canelo’s Global Status:

  • “He’s a global superstar. He’s an icon.” — Nick Schulman [34:45]

• On the Legendary Vibe:

  • “From a purest standpoint, this is up there with anything ... any boxing fan can recall in quite a while.” — Nick Schulman [45:02]

• On judging bias:

  • “There’s an old adage, you can’t beat Canelo in Vegas. ... Floyd won 13 rounds of a 12 round fight!” — Nick Schulman [54:28–55:08]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:24 — Episode Introduction, framing the magnitude of Canelo–Crawford
• 08:07 — Weight jump context/history
• 13:07 — Schulman’s unwavering history betting Crawford
• 22:48 — Breakdown of Crawford’s highlight victories
• 33:48 — Canelo’s background as a legend and stylistic evolution
• 35:22 — Is Canelo past his prime?
• 44:53 — Placing this fight in historical context
• 47:12 — How each fighter’s win would look
• 51:09 — Schulman’s detailed Bud win prediction (even by KO)
• 53:52 — On boxing politics/judging and implications
• 56:05 — Schulman’s betting approach and line-tracking

Episode Tone & Flow

• Lively, hyper-knowledgeable, and fan-focused; Schulman offers passionate, nuanced, and direct commentary, sprinkled with personal anecdotes and humility.
• Wright acts as a sharp, self-deprecating interviewer, frequently ceding the floor to draw out Schulman’s expertise.

Final Thoughts

• Schulman’s pick is clear: “I’ve believed for a long time that [Crawford's] the best guy in the world ... It all leads to this moment.” [52:19]
• Both agree: This is not just fight of the year, but “up there with the biggest fights of all time.”
• Schulman encourages viewers not to sleep on Inoue fighting the same weekend—a nod to true fight fans.

For anyone seeking context, history, and expert-level analysis on Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive, accessible, and passionate discussions available—a must-listen for boxing fans and curious newcomers alike.