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What's Wright - Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford Predictions w/ Nick Schulman - The Herd with Colin Cowherd | Wave AI Podcast Notes

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What's Wright - Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford Predictions w/ Nick Schulman

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sat Sep 13 2025

Summary

The Herd with Colin Cowherd: What's Wright — Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford Predictions w/ Nick Schulman (Sept 13, 2025)

Episode Overview

In this special bonus episode of "What's Wright with Nick Wright," poker Hall of Famer and boxing analyst Nick Schulman returns for an in-depth look at the much-anticipated Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford super fight. Host Nick Wright interviews Schulman about the magnitude, context, and technical nuances of the bout—framed by one of boxing’s rarest leaps in weight class—and explores what victory could mean for either fighter’s legacy. The conversation blends high-level expertise, actionable betting talk, and big-picture sports fandom in a lively, accessible style.

Main Themes & Purpose

Supreme Anticipation: The episode presents the Canelo vs. Crawford fight as perhaps the “fight of the decade,” with historic implications for both boxing and its mainstream appeal.
Expert Analysis: Nick Schulman, renowned for his dual expertise in poker, gambling, and especially boxing, breaks down the matchup with rare insight, making a case for why Terence “Bud” Crawford might pull off one of the sport’s most audacious upsets.
Bets & Legacy: Discussion revolves heavily around the implications for each man’s legacy, the betting markets, and how to interpret the odds given the unusual nature of Crawford's two-division leap up in weight.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Table: Why Is This Fight So Important?

Weight Jumping Rarity
- Terence Crawford is leaping from 154 lbs to fight Canelo Alvarez at 168 lbs, a move Schulman calls “quite rare” in the modern era. Reference to historic analogs like Pacquiao and Sugar Ray Leonard’s leaps (08:07).
  - “To move up two weight classes like this is somewhat unprecedented in the modern era.” — Nick Schulman [08:54]
Motivations and Mindset
- Initially, Schulman believed Crawford was cashing out, but changed his mind, sensing true belief from Crawford’s camp (08:56). He now both personally and strategically picks Crawford to win.
  - “I think he believes he will win. I think his team believes he'll win, and I believe he'll win.” — Nick Schulman [09:48]

Betting Lines & Public Perception

Market Sentiment
- Canelo’s a favorite, though not overwhelmingly so, “like Packers money line over Commanders”—implying an upset is plausible (10:28).
- Public and media often cite size as reason for doubting Crawford, but Schulman says such takes miss Crawford’s generational talent (11:24, 12:54).

Schulman’s Crawford Analysis: Resume & Skillset

Personal Betting Experience
- Schulman has unwaveringly bet on Crawford since being wowed by his in-ring intelligence and versatility (13:07–14:41).
  - “…ever since then, I … have actually been business partners with Bud. The business plan … he fights, and I bet on him every single fucking time. And guess what, Nick? Business has been booming.” — Nick Schulman [14:24]
Highlight Victories
- The discussion features mini-breakdowns of:
  - Kell Brook Knockout – Praised for incredible timing.
  - Jose Benavidez Jr. – Stopped him with a “crazy uppercut sequence.”
  - Sean Porter Stoppage – Famous corner exchange:"He's up? How? … Bud, it's time to go." Crawford then wins by stoppage.
  - David Avenisyan KO – “Put him out cold in the middle of the ring.”
  - Errol Spence Jr. – Defensive counters and timing highlighted as generational (22:48–26:51).
  “He landed the shortest little right hand … timing beats speed and precision beats power … shocked Brook to where he kind of didn't know where he was.” — Nick Schulman [22:48]
Addressing Criticism of Opposition
- Schulman rebuts the idea that Crawford’s resume is weak, detailing the elite quality and context of his victims (15:19).

Canelo’s Legacy & Current Form

Origins and Style
- Canelo turned pro at 15, has “fought everybody,” and reinvented himself as more of a power-punching pressure fighter over time (33:48–34:45).
  - “He's a global superstar. He's an icon.” — Nick Schulman [34:45]
Where Is Canelo in His Career?
- Schulman suggests Canelo has shown signs of age/slowing (“stuck in the mud”) but remains a tactical, dangerous champion (35:22). His recent performances have been good but not at his explosive best.
  - “He doesn't look like prime Canelo to me, but he's very intelligent … interviews … sharp … I believe he will be prepared … but after 65 professional fights...you never know. I mean, Father Time is undefeated.” — Nick Schulman [36:41]
  - Nick Wright notes the irony that Crawford is biologically older but “the younger fighter at this point.”

Activity Levels & Team Chemistry

Inactivity vs. Consistency
- Canelo has fought more often than Crawford recently, but Schulman points out Crawford “lives in the gym” and compares him to Mayweather’s year-round conditioning (30:04).
Team Dynamics
- Schulman praises Crawford’s stable, humble, and innovative team, specifically naming trainer Brian “Bomac” McIntyre (31:19).

The State of Boxing & Superfight Context

Historic Magnitude
- Schulman places this fight among the biggest ever: “up there with Mayweather-Pacquiao, Tyson-Holyfield, Canelo-Triple G 1 & 2, Canelo-Floyd.” (44:53–46:45)
  - “From a purest standpoint, this is up there with anything … I think any boxing fan can recall in quite a while.” — Nick Schulman [45:02]
Saudi Influence, Purse Questions, and Boxing’s Future
- Discussion of Saudi money changing the game, with Canelo and Crawford both potentially making unprecedented sums; Dana White’s involvement and the proliferation of titles is analyzed for its pros/cons (38:46–40:48).

Betting Strategy & Predictions

How Will the Fight Likely Play Out? (47:12+)

Canelo Victory:
- Canelo would need to “win with sublime skills,” either by clear decision or possible late stoppage if the weight difference is just too much.
  - “I suppose [Canelo could win by] backing Bud down and just wailing on him with huge shots ... winning a clear decision where Bud is wounded ... or even getting the stoppage.” — Nick Schulman [47:12]
Crawford Victory:
- Schulman picks Crawford. Expects Bud to “take his time, find his openings, and beat the brakes off him,” believing he’s live even for a late stoppage (which would shock most). His belief is rooted in Crawford’s extraordinary ring IQ and timing.
  - “I think Bud is live for the stoppage, which is something like 10 to 1. No one thinks it's possible. I do. I think he could land something that Canelo does not see …” — Nick Schulman [51:09]
On Judges/Scoring:
- Historically tough to get a decision against Canelo (“you can’t beat Canelo in Vegas”), but Schulman senses “a changing of the tides,” perhaps more fair judging this time (53:52–55:34).

Betting Insights & Tactics

Current Odds
- Canelo is about -165 to win outright; Crawford around +140 to +180 depending on timing.
- Prop bets: Canelo by decision ≈ +130 (as per Hard Rock Bet). Crawford by stoppage (KO/TKO) is around 10:1 [50:53].
When to Bet
- Schulman monitors the lines constantly, suggesting Bud backers may want to wait for late “hometown” money on Canelo from Mexican fans, which could move the price in Crawford backers' favor (56:16).
  
  “For something like this [fight] is constantly refreshing the line ... a lot of Mexicans are going to come to town and start firing Canelo. So my theory ... is that if you want to bet Bud, ... wait.” — Nick Schulman [56:16]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Betting Trust:
- “Ever since then ... I’ve actually been business Partners with Bud. ... He fights, and I bet on him every single fucking time. ... Business has been booming.” — Nick Schulman [14:24]
On the Fight’s Rarity:
- “To move up two weight classes like this is somewhat unprecedented in the modern era.” — Nick Schulman [08:54]
On Canelo’s Global Status:
- “He’s a global superstar. He’s an icon.” — Nick Schulman [34:45]
On the Legendary Vibe:
- “From a purest standpoint, this is up there with anything ... any boxing fan can recall in quite a while.” — Nick Schulman [45:02]
On judging bias:
- “There’s an old adage, you can’t beat Canelo in Vegas. ... Floyd won 13 rounds of a 12 round fight!” — Nick Schulman [54:28–55:08]

Timestamps for Key Segments

02:24 — Episode Introduction, framing the magnitude of Canelo–Crawford
08:07 — Weight jump context/history
13:07 — Schulman’s unwavering history betting Crawford
22:48 — Breakdown of Crawford’s highlight victories
33:48 — Canelo’s background as a legend and stylistic evolution
35:22 — Is Canelo past his prime?
44:53 — Placing this fight in historical context
47:12 — How each fighter’s win would look
51:09 — Schulman’s detailed Bud win prediction (even by KO)
53:52 — On boxing politics/judging and implications
56:05 — Schulman’s betting approach and line-tracking

Episode Tone & Flow

Lively, hyper-knowledgeable, and fan-focused; Schulman offers passionate, nuanced, and direct commentary, sprinkled with personal anecdotes and humility.
Wright acts as a sharp, self-deprecating interviewer, frequently ceding the floor to draw out Schulman’s expertise.

Final Thoughts

Schulman’s pick is clear: “I’ve believed for a long time that [Crawford's] the best guy in the world ... It all leads to this moment.” [52:19]
Both agree: This is not just fight of the year, but “up there with the biggest fights of all time.”
Schulman encourages viewers not to sleep on Inoue fighting the same weekend—a nod to true fight fans.

For anyone seeking context, history, and expert-level analysis on Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive, accessible, and passionate discussions available—a must-listen for boxing fans and curious newcomers alike.

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Transcript

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Nick Wright (2:24)

Welcome in what's right with Nick Wright. As promised, a special bonus episode. One of our now very few two time guests, our boxing and gambling and poker correspondent. But in this episode we are going to focus exclusively on the boxing piece of it for and tell me if I'm wrong. Not just fight of the year, but arguably the fight of the decade. The last few years at the very least. It is Poker hall of Famer and for my money, the sharpest of the boxing Sharps, Nick Schulman. Nick, great to see you. Fight of the year, Fight of the decade. How excited are you for Canelo Crawford?

Nick Wright (15:19)

No, no, no. So you got. You got exactly where I was going, which is. And I promise for Canelo fans, we're going to get there. But I want the. What really perked my ears up about this is when we were talking about this a month ago and you said, ivy. And now I'm going to sidebar it real quick. I have. This is a weird thing about the way I'm wired because of the industry that I'm in and the people I've been around because of the industry that I'm in versus poker and the poker world. I have been lucky enough to. I mean, I guess I can say this because it was public. It was. I didn't talk about it, but it was all over the Internet a few months ago. I'm at a Grizzlies game and at the Grizzlies Lakers, and at the end of the game, LeBron James comes over, hugs my wife, tells her it's great to see her, daps me up and like. And I was as, you know, as Leonardo DiCaprio would say in the Departed, my hand didn't shake like that felt. It didn't feel normal, but like, it was. It wasn't like a. As big of a thing as I think people would assume here. Friday night, I'm going to Kansas City to do our first Things first show. But then after the show, Patrick Mahomes Steakhouse. This is grand opening, and I'll probably get to spend some time with Patrick, who I've become, I consider a friend. That's not like, I'm. I'm not saying that for any reason. Other than like to set the table for what I'm about to say. With that said, about three months ago, I was in Vegas at the World Series with Jared Bleznick, and Blez is like, hey, you know what? I was with Blez. But it wasn't Bless who did this. It was Nacho Barbero. Legendary Nacho. I see him as for poor people. And Nacho says to me, have you ever met Ivy? And I'm like, no, I actually haven't. And Nacho says, he's like, oh, you have to meet Ivy. And in that moment, my heart raced like I was a child. Like my, my nerves of the situation, it, it was so unlike anything that's happened to me as an adult. Because if you don't run in those circles and you're a poker fan or gambling fan, he is LeBron Mahomes, whatever you want. Like this legendary larger than life figure. Which is why I say all that to say this, when you said that Ivy thinks Bud might be the best ever. Pound for pound, the best ever was like, holy shit. That's not a, that's not going to be a comment that's thrown around loosely. So my question is, I know he's one of all these fights. What has happened over the last decade that is there a moment? Is there a sequence of moments? What is the evidence or the reasoning? Someone would believe that. Reminder about our friends, our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Everybody knows and loves the Hard Rock hotels and casinos. And now you can use the top rated Hard Rock Bet sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida, the only one in Florida. And it's also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bets online casino if you are in New Jersey. Throughout the football season, we'll be using Hard Rock Bet lines to make our predictions for the biggest games as we gear up for the NFL season. Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet and you'll get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, head over to Hard Rock Bet and sign up to make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know as a gambling problem wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia.

Nick Schulman (22:48)

And, you know, that was indeed a profound sentiment from Ivy. My favorite Bud moments, in no particular order. Number one, the Kell Brook stoppage. Now, you can say what you want about where Brook was at his career was at in his career, but. And I've ran this back hundreds of times, and I'm not saying that to sound deep, I just. He landed the shortest little right hand. They're both on the inside, kind of like right on top of each other, and they punch at the same time. As the legendary Conor McGregor once said, Timing beats speed and precision beats power. But it shocked Brook to where he kind of didn't know where he was. And if you want, go watch it. For people that haven't seen it, it's the knockdown before the stoppage for the official stoppage. That's one. Another one was Jose Benavidez Jr. Comes to town, comes to Omaha, Nebraska, where Bud is from. Starts going to the barbershop, start talk, starts talking crazy, right? But then he gets out there and fights. Really not to win. Big respect to Jose and the whole family, but he's kind of on the back foot. It's hard to look great against these guys who don't really engage. He's just kind of jabbing, moving, shaking his head. Nope. And somehow, some way, Bud found him in the 12th round and put him out with a crazy uppercut sequence. Wild stuff. And again, do I think Canelo would have beaten Kell Brook And Jose Benavidez Jr. Yes, I do. So I, you know, we're not overlooking the task at hand. Another one was the Sean Porter stoppage, and there's a clip that any boxing fan knows, but it's going into the 11th round, I believe, maybe the 10th, I believe the 11th. Bud's Corner says, we think he might be up on the cards. He wasn't, by the way. Porter, that is. And Bud. Bud looked really surprised, and he said, he's up. And they said, you know, we think he might be up. And he said it again. He kind of said, how? And he looked at another member of his corner, and he said, he's up. And they said, bud, it's time to go. Got him right out. Next round. And it was an amazing sequence. He sort of faked a left uppercut, then let it go. It was like really beautiful boxing. Sublime skills. There was one knockdown where Porter was genuinely, you know, Shocked on the canvas, he looked at his corner, then he got up. Then there was another knockdown where they had a wild exchange in the center of the ring. That's where Porter started punching the canvas. It was a very kind of poignant moment, I guess. You know, he fought his ass off. He's a legend, but it was just kind of like. And his dad threw the towel. And Kenny Porter in the corner. The David Avenician knockout in the center of the ring. A fairly unsung fighter, but again, this is an incredible display of power from in clo. They were off the clinch and he put him out cold in the middle of the ring. This is when he went to another promotion, BK prime or whatever. It was a little bit odd, but that one was shocking. And of course, Nick, the Errol Spence win in its entirety. But especially the little right uppercut. He landed off the ropes in the seventh or eighth round. That's a shot where when you watch it, you don't know what happened. Spence just went down. You have to run it back to see how crisp the timing was. This guy's throwing shots. When you think about throwing something, it's not. The timing is impeccable. All right.

Nick Schulman (30:04)

It's a great point. It's very pertinent. Inactivity is, is an issue. But for a guy like this who not only lives in the gym, everybody that's been around this guy attests to that. That's his happy place. That's where he relaxes in the gym. So this is a year round guy, much like a Mayweather who, you know, unretired. And we saw what he did to Juan Manuel Marquez where people were thinking, we don't know. I think it was a 15 month layoff and, you know, his boxing skills were just on full display. And also another thing about Buddha, this guy's team is to me really special. Starting with Bomac. Brian McIntyre, he just seems so humble and so don't make it about me. And he said something that I thought was really beautiful. Terrence actually said this in an interview that when, you know, he strolled into the gym as a kid and has never switched up same team, but as he was rising through the ranks, he went somewhere, I don't remember where, but there were, there were other trainers there. I don't know if it was Olympic trials or Golden Glove, I don't know what it was, but he said, Bomac said to him, listen, any exercises you pick up over there, any tactics, any new wrinkles to your game, you know, bring them back to the gym, teach them to me, because I'm still learning on the job. And he says it to this day, they're always trying to add little things to their game. Esau, Diego, another guy in his corner, wonderful story. Came from Guatemala, tried to make a better life for himself, tried to make it as a pro, struggled to get fights, had a little losing streak. He was in Cali, went to omaha, met Brian McIntyre, Bomac, they struggled. It was, you know, the grind was real. And then in walked 14 year old Bud Crawford. And there's another guy in his team, Red Spikes. And again, you can see interviews with all these guys. They're never, there's no ego there. These are students of the game. So inactivity is an issue for me, more for the guys who, they're in camp, they fight and then they're partying or then they're on vacation. A lot of boxers, because it's a vicious sport and life happens, you know, like it's, we're human beings end of the day. But this guy has wanted to be a world champion since he was a kid and he's been unwavering in this pursuit. That's real, you know that, that's real life. And he's coming. So I don't think it matters that much here, but it's, it is an issue.