The Herd with Colin Cowherd

What’s Wright – NFL Week 11 Predictions: Chiefs-Broncos, Lions-Eagles, Seahawks-Rams, Bucs-Bills | Nick Wright

Date: November 15, 2025
Host: Spencer Graves (for this episode, in place of Nick Wright)
Special Guest: Damanze (remote contribution)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Herd’s “What’s Wright” is a focused, brisk gambling show for NFL Week 11. Spencer Graves runs through his results from last week, explains his approach for this week’s betting slate, rattles off “stay away” games, and gives detailed breakdowns for his five best bets—including rationale, stats, and trends. Damanze calls in from paternity leave with his weekly teaser pick. The tone is casual, insightful, and full of the usual self-deprecation and banter familiar to fans of the pod.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Week 10 Recap & Betting Mindset

• Performance review: Spencer recaps last week’s picks, coming in at 2–3, slightly under .500 for the year but optimistic due to previous late-season surges.
• Bad beats and lucky wins: Atlanta’s near-win in overtime, Jacksonville’s blown fourth-quarter lead, Chicago’s late comeback, and a poor pick on Pittsburgh.
  • Quote [04:35]: “Jags with an all time gag job...Just pathetic. Two and three, two games under again, trudging along, need to get hot. But this is similar to last year and last year we finished red hot, so I’m not worried.”

Stay Away Games – Rationale & Quick Picks

[11:59–17:04]

• Chargers at Jacksonville: Chargers favored by 2.5, but O-line and Jags’ struggles make it a stay-away.
• Houston at Titans: Too risky to lay touchdown with Davis Mills; not enough value betting Titans at +6.5.
• Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh as divisional dog usually tempting, but not favored by 5.
• Carolina at Atlanta: Atlanta’s “pathetic game plan” last week makes trusting them hard.
• Green Bay at Giants: Giants +7 seem attractive, but Jameis Winston’s unpredictability and coach firing—a “pick-six to ruin a cover is too painful.”
• Seattle at Rams: Line is dead-on at Rams -3; both at 7-2 SU/ATS, so no edge.
• Baltimore at Cleveland: Ravens favored by 7.5, uncertainty around Lamar Jackson’s health.
• Detroit at Philly: “Stared long and hard” at Detroit +2.5, but wants +3 to feel comfortable.
  • Quote [16:41]: “At three I’d bet Detroit and then Dallas at the Raiders. Raiders getting three and a half. Just a gross Monday Night Football game.”

Week 11 Five Best Bets

[17:16–21:37]
Spencer’s favorite five, with concise reasoning:

1. Miami -2.5 vs. Washington (in Madrid)

• Washington devastated by injuries, particularly at QB and defense.
• Miami has “sneaky good vibes” and Tua’s poor international record excused due to quality of opposition.
• “Washington is just right now one of the softer spots in the league until Jaden gets back.”
  • Quote [16:56]

2. Chicago +3 at Minnesota

• Vikings are 0–6 ATS after facing Detroit with Kevin O’Connell.
• Chicago’s offense has explosiveness, especially in a dome.
• “I think Chicago likely wins this game outright and I’m getting three points.”
  • Quote [17:16]

3. Tampa Bay +5.5 at Buffalo

• Buffalo shouldn’t be favored by this much over “any really good team.”
• Tampa healthier than all year, Buffalo banged up.
• “I just need [Tampa] to keep it manageable, and they’re healthier. And Buffalo I think has some soul searching to do.”
  • Quote [17:54]

4. San Francisco -2.5 at Arizona

• Arizona “a bit of a mess” and just got blown out.
• Brock Purdy returning; playoff implications for 49ers.
• Comforted not having to lay over a field goal – “San Francisco can control this game and win by three points.”
  • Quote [18:27]

5. Kansas City -3.5 at Denver

• Bo Nix and Broncos unlikely to manage more than 17 points against KC’s defense.
• Chiefs should be able to get to 21 even against a decent Denver D.
• “Obvious...I just do not think Bo Nix can get this Broncos offense to more than 17 points.”
  • Quote [18:46]

Timestamped Segment: [17:16–19:03] (Detailed rundown of all picks and logic.)

Teasers & Novelty Bets

Damanze’s Week 11 Teaser

[26:15–27:03]

• Damanze calls in, thanks the crew for baby congrats, and presents:
  • Texans +1.5
  • Dolphins +5.5 (teaser through 0)
  • Bucs +13 (updated to +13.5)
• Spencer critiques the teaser, grading it an “F” due to poor use of key NFL “teaser” numbers but adds, “I’m rooting for you, son, but that gets an F.”
  • Quote [27:03]: “He’s been focused on more important things, but fair is fair…gets an F.”

Touchdown Genie Segment

[27:30–28:40]

• Spencer boasts about ongoing “lifetime undefeated” record for touchdown prop picks.
  • Last week’s random pick (Kyle Manangai) scored immediately.
  • New parlay: Josh Jacobs & Christian McCaffrey both to score (-122). “We don’t do it every week, but I’m feeling hot on Touchdown Genie.”
• Listener bet: Trevor Lawrence and Jameis Winston to each throw a pick (+140). He takes the bet: “Sadly, two number one picks to throw picks. I’ll take it.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• [04:35] On perseverance despite losses:
  “Two and three, two games under again, trudging along, need to get hot. But this is similar to last year and last year we finished red hot, so I’m not worried.” — Spencer Graves

• [16:56] Washington’s struggles:
  “Washington is just right now one of the softer spots in the league until Jaden gets back and I’m laying less than a field goal.” — Spencer Graves

• [17:54] Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay:
  “Buffalo…I think has some soul searching to do. Tampa plus five and a half. Probably my…I’m not going to call it my favorite, but I like this a lot.” — Spencer Graves

• [18:27] San Francisco vs. Arizona:
  “San Francisco can control this game and win by three points. And I’m only laying the two and a half.” — Spencer Graves

• [18:46] Lock of the Week – Chiefs at Broncos:
  “Obvious… I just do not think Bo Nix can get this Broncos offense to more than 17 points.” — Spencer Graves

• [27:03] Teaser critique:
  “He’s been focused on more important things, but fair is fair… Damanze’s first teaser as a father gets an F.” — Spencer Graves

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [04:35] – Week 10 betting recap & mindset
• [11:59–17:04] – Stay away games and the logic behind each
• [17:16–19:03] – Deep dive on Week 11’s five best bets
• [26:15–27:03] – Damanze’s Week 11 teaser + critique
• [27:30–28:40] – Touchdown Genie and listener prop discussion

Summary Table: Week 11 Official Picks

| Game | Pick | Line/Pick | Reasoning Highlight | |-----------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | Dolphins vs. Washington | Dolphins | -2.5 (Madrid) | Washington's injuries, Dolphins' positive momentum | | Bears at Vikings | Bears | +3 | Bears' offense in dome, Vikings' ATS trend | | Bucs at Bills | Buccaneers | +5.5 | Bucs' health advantage, Bills' recent struggles | | 49ers at Cardinals | 49ers | -2.5 | Niners' urgency, Cardinals' poor form | | Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs | -3.5 | Broncos' limited offense vs. KC's defense, Chiefs' upside |

Podcast Tone and Takeaways

The episode maintains a brisk, informed, slightly playful tone. Spencer Graves is analytical but not afraid to admit to bad picks or rib his producer. Practical betting advice centers on line value, injury reports, and situational stats. There’s a healthy skepticism toward trends and a focus on pragmatic handicapping. Damanze’s cameo adds warmth, showing camaraderie and gentle teasing, encapsulating the show’s mix of serious analysis and light-hearted rapport.

Recommendation:
If you’re a fan of NFL betting with a balance of stats, gut feel, and plenty of personality, this episode delivers, particularly in the rapid-fire best bets section and the ongoing fun of the Touchdown Genie props.

Like, rate, subscribe, and enjoy your football weekend!