Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Segment: What's Wright – NFL Week 13 Predictions
Guest Analyst: Nick Wright
Date: November 27, 2025
Main Theme:
Nick Wright breaks down his top five NFL Week 13 gambling picks, offering betting insights and analysis on key matchups: Chiefs-Cowboys, Bears-Eagles, Packers-Lions, 49ers-Browns, and more. He discusses why he’s staying away from certain games, dives into the numbers and trends supporting his choices, and features special segments like Damanze's teaser, the Touchdown Genie, and “the offer.”

Episode Overview

The episode centers around Nick Wright's best bets for NFL Week 13, with a mix of deep football insight, betting logic, and characteristic humor. Wright gives five official picks, highlights why he's avoiding several notable games, and provides actionable advice for listeners interested in football betting. He briefly reviews his performance so far this season and reflects on the volatility of NFL gambling.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Season Update & Betting Philosophy

• Performance Recap:
  • Nick enters Week 13 at 30-29-1 after finally going above .500 with a "3-1-1 week."
  • He emphasizes the importance of staying above .500 by Thanksgiving and making smart, data-driven picks.
• Philosophy:
  • "We stayed away from the Chiefs minus three and a half because we didn't like the hook. The hook would have killed us." (06:05)
  • Focuses on data, line movement, and avoiding emotional bets.

2. Games He’s Avoiding and Why

• Green Bay +2.5 at Detroit:
  • Likes Detroit but is "worried about Goff’s ability to stay upright against that Green Bay pass rush."
• Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore:
  • Intrigued by Cincy, but not sure how Joe Burrow will look. Baltimore’s defense is "frisky" and Lamar Jackson’s injuries are a concern.
• Other Games (Miami-NO, Houston-Indy, etc.):
  • Explains leans on Houston, shy away from Titans, and Rams for various match-up and injury reasons.
  • Atlanta at NYJ: "I don’t think Kurt Cousins at this point in his career should be laying points on the road... but I also can't trust the Jets. So I'm staying away." (12:15)
• Buffalo at Pittsburgh:
  • Stared at Pitt +4 but QB uncertainty keeps him off.
• Vegas at Chargers, Denver at Washington, Giants at New England:
  • Avoids each due to injury uncertainty, personal rooting interest, or unreliable lines.

3. Nick Wright’s Five Official Picks [17:30]

1. Chiefs -3 at Dallas

• Points out Hard Rock Bet line is -3 (not the usual -3.5).
• Cites a key stat: "Thanksgiving favorites are 51-9 straight up and 40-20 ATS over the last 20 years." (17:51)
• Trusts KC to exploit Dallas’s “bad secondary.”
• Quote: “I think the Chiefs, whatever issues they have offensively, the Chiefs against bad secondaries still move the ball at will.” (18:20)

2. Chicago +7 at Philadelphia

• Doesn’t believe the Eagles "deserve to be more than six point favorites against good teams right now." (18:35)
• Cites offensive inconsistency and Lane Johnson’s absence for Philly.
• Quote: “The Lane Johnson absence has been a death knell for this team.” (18:49)

3. Tampa Bay -3 vs. Arizona

• Despite Baker Mayfield’s injury, trusts in Tampa; says Arizona "couldn't capitalize on turnovers last week.”
• Not sure about Marvin Harrison Jr.’s status.
• Quote: “Trevor gave them the ball four times including a pick six, and they still couldn't win... I expect Baker to play.” (19:10)

4. Cleveland +6 vs. San Francisco (in the snow)

• Loves Browns’ defense, expects a low-scoring game.
• Thinks SF’s Brock Purdy will struggle in inclement weather and after a three-INT game.
• Quote: “That defense against Brock Purdy fresh off those interceptions in the snow… I’ll take the six points and I’ll take them happily.” (19:46)

5. Seattle -10.5 vs. Minnesota

• Vikings are down to their "third string quarterback"—doesn’t believe they can keep up.
• Expects Seahawks’ defense to control the game.
• Quote: “Can Seattle get to 21? That should be enough to cover against the Vikings’ third string quarterback.” (20:19)

Official Picks Recap:

• Chiefs -3 (vs. Dallas)
• Chicago +7 (at Philadelphia)
• Tampa Bay -3 (vs. Arizona)
• Cleveland +6 (vs. SF)
• Seattle -10.5 (vs. Minnesota)

4. Special Segments

Damanze's "Teaser Special" [24:46]

• Three Team/8-Point Teaser:
  • Dallas +11 (vs. KC)
  • Tampa Bay +5 (vs. Arizona)
  • Chicago +15 (at Philly)
• Nick’s Grade: “I don’t love teasing through zero with Tampa... I do love the Chicago leg... I’m giving this a B minus.” (25:47)

Touchdown Genie [26:21]

• Instead of a popular, low-odds pick (Kelsey), Nick goes with higher value:
  • “Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown at four to one. Cowboys have been susceptible to quarterback run game.” (26:31)

The Offer [27:05]

• Producer’s Parlay: Kareem Hunt OVER 33.5 rushing yards & Rashee Rice OVER 72.5 receiving yards (+225).
• Nick’s Take: Fades Kareem Hunt yards due to Isaiah Pacheco’s return and Hunt’s recent workload: “I will again go against the producers...” (27:27)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On NFL Gambling: "Numbers don’t lie, and neither does the data. Plus, I’m not here to emotionally hedge my rooting interests." (16:32)
• On Thanksgiving Football Trends: “Thanksgiving favorites are 51 and nine straight up and 40 and twenty against the spread.” (17:51)
• On Philadelphia’s Lane Johnson: "The Lane Johnson absence has been a death knell for this team.” (18:49)
• On Seattle’s Defense vs Minnesota’s QB: “Gosh, Gomer. What's his name? Sam Bosmer? Gosmer? Whatever it is...I don’t like his chances against the Seattle defense.” (20:10)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro and Season Recap: 02:56 – 07:24
• Games He's Avoiding and Why: 10:33 – 17:30
• Five Official Picks Breakdown: 17:30 – 21:32
• Damanze’s Teaser: 24:46 – 25:47
• Touchdown Genie Pick: 26:21
• The Offer Segment: 27:05

Conclusion & Tone

Nick Wright’s Week 13 preview is a classic blend of sharp stats, betting logic, and his signature tongue-in-cheek delivery. He nails key insights (“The Chiefs against bad secondaries still move the ball at will”) and never shies away from questioning logic (“How are the Titans going to get another win?”). His picks are reasoned and transparent, making the episode a toolkit for savvy NFL bettors and casual fans looking to sound smarter at Thanksgiving dinner.