The Herd with Colin Cowherd

What's Wright – NFL Week 15 Predictions with Nick Wright

December 13, 2025

Episode Overview

In this Week 15 special of "What's Wright with Nick Wright," Nick and Damanze break down their NFL picks against the spread, discuss the quirks and trends affecting this weekend’s matchups, and analyze which games they’re backing, fading, and flat-out avoiding. The duo also recap last week’s wagers, reflect on betting logic, and dive deep into which teams are worth gambling on as the playoffs approach. The tone is lively, analytical, and often humorous, with Nick’s candid, self-deprecating style on full display.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Recap of Last Week’s Bets

[02:36–04:03]

• Nick recaps a 3-2 week, lamenting how close he was to 4-1:
  • "Sturdy 3 and 2 that could have so easily been 4 and 1. I feel great about it..." (03:04)
• Picks reviewed include wins with Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as underdogs, a dominant Seattle minus-7, and a disappointing Washington pick.
• On Philly’s loss:
  • "I'm still a little bitter about it." (03:47)

2. Season Record and Strategy

[04:03–07:47]

• This season, Nick stands at 35-33-2 against the spread, aiming to reach profitability.
  • "We are very proud of the fact that four of the five years we've publicly done picks, we not only were winners, we were profitable. Including the vig. We want to keep that going." (05:14)

3. Games to Stay Away From

Nick and Damanze systematically go through the biggest games and explain why they are NOT good bets this week.

• Chargers at Chiefs (KC -5.5) [07:47–08:39]:
  • Nick: "Chiefs have not earned the right to be five and a half point favorites against a nine and four Chargers...So I think the sharp side of this is the Chargers. But I would never so I'm just staying away." (07:56)
• Washington at Giants [08:39–09:35]:
  • "Two bad teams, two teams looking for next season... We're staying away." (09:20)
• Cleveland at Chicago (CHI -7.5) [09:35–11:53]:
  • On Shador Sanders, rookie QB:
    • "Asking any rookie quarterback to string together consecutive good games, particularly this one coming against a desperate Chicago team is really dangerous." (09:56)
• Arizona at Houston (HOU -9.5) [11:56–13:23]:
  • Nick: "I worry the Cardinals have just packed it in."
• Jets at Jags (JAX -13) [13:23–14:21]:
  • Despite Jets QB issues:
    • "13 is just too many points to lay with Jacksonville. I'm staying away." (14:17)
• Green Bay at Denver (DEN +2.5) [14:21–15:08]:
  • Nick considered Green Bay but has lost betting both on the Chiefs and against Broncos this year; "I'm staying away..." (14:52)
• Other Games Passed On [18:55–21:28]:
  • Rams/Lions, Carolina/New Orleans, Minnesota/Dallas, Miami/Pittsburgh. Reasons include lack of betting edge, unpredictable outcomes, or too many points involved.

4. Nick’s Five Best Bets for Week 15

[21:52–28:03]

• Buffalo -1 at New England [21:52–23:24]:
  • Nick: "I just think Buffalo's better. Right. Let me rephrase it. I don't know that I think Buffalo is better, but I think Buffalo...desperately needs this game...I will take the Bills to win the game." (22:16)
• Seattle -13.5 vs Indianapolis [23:24–25:32]:
  • "I'll lay the two touchdowns and deal with it." (23:30)
  • On Sam Darnold:
    • "Darnold is 11-0 as a 7+ point favorite...I've been riding Seattle. I'll keep riding them." (25:02)
• Raiders +11.5 at Eagles [25:32–26:43]:
  • "I can't trust Philly's offense right now to win by two scores." (25:54)
  • Betting angle: Teams off an OT game vs. non-OT are 24-49 ATS, favoring Vegas here.
• San Francisco -12.5 vs Tennessee [26:43–28:03]:
  • "I do not think the Titans can get to 13 points against this Niners defense...I'll lay the 12 and a half with San Francisco." (27:26)
• Cincinnati +2.5 vs Baltimore [28:03–28:40]:
  • "I'm getting two and a half points at home in a divisional game with Burrow playing. I'll take it." (28:40)

5. Damanze’s Week 15 Teaser

[30:12–31:51]

• 3-team 8-point teaser (+100 odds):
  • Bengals up to +10.5
  • Chargers up to +13.5
  • Bears to +0.5 (Pick’em)
• Nick’s verdict:
  • "I just don't love...you're not getting it through 14...but I'm just gonna keep doing. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. B minus." (31:28)

6. Touchdown Genie and Special Parlays

[31:53–32:46]

• Touchdown Genie pick: Travis Kelce (+225 to score), rationale:
  • "He's down on himself. He's sad. Mahomes wants to...You know, he doesn’t have potentially that many home games left..." (32:09)
• Special cross-sport parlay:
  • Chiefs Moneyline + SGA (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) to win NBA Cup MVP for +114.
  • Nick: "I feel like that's free money except for the Chiefs might break my heart again." (32:46)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On betting against his own team:
  • "I'm obviously not betting against the Chiefs, but five and a half is an outrageous line. The Chiefs have not earned the right to be five and a half point favorites against a nine and four Chargers." (07:56)
• On rookie QBs and recency bias:
  • "I don't think all of a sudden it's like, okay, well Shador Sanders established quality NFL quarterback. Like he is still at a point where him playing well should be surprising the way it is for any rookie quarterback, much less a 5th round rookie making his 4th or 5th career start." (10:41)
• On the Colts starting Philip Rivers (again):
  • "The Colts might be playing Philip Rivers in 2025 as their starting quarterback against this Mike McDonald ferocious defense." (23:30)
• On Sam Darnold as a heavy favorite:
  • "Darnold is 11-0 as a 7+ point favorite now that’s straight up obviously but 9 and 2 against the spread. I've been riding Seattle. I'll keep riding them." (25:02)
• Cross-sport parlay rationale:
  • "Chiefs Moneyline Shay to win the the NBA Cup MVP. Oh my goodness. I...feel like that's free money except for the Chiefs might break my heart again." (32:46)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Intro, Recap & Gambling Show Mindset: 02:36–07:47
• Games to Stay Away From: 07:47–21:28
• Nick’s Five Picks: 21:52–28:40
• Damanze’s Teaser: 30:12–31:51
• Touchdown Genie & Cross-Sport Parlay: 31:53–32:46

Summary Table of Nick’s Week 15 Picks

| Game | Nick’s Pick | Reasoning | |------------------------------|---------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | Bills at Patriots | Bills -1 | Bills’ urgency; edge on ground game | | Colts at Seahawks | Seahawks -13.5 | Colts QB crisis; trust Seattle/Darnold as heavy favorite | | Raiders at Eagles | Raiders +11.5 | Philly unreliable by margin, Vegas scrappy for covers | | Titans at 49ers | 49ers -12.5 | Titans weak offense; Shanahan to exploit mismatches | | Ravens at Bengals | Bengals +2.5 | Divisional home dog, trust Burrow, lack of faith in Ravens |

Concluding Remarks

Nick and Damanze stay disciplined on their approach, warning listeners about traps for the gambling public, especially with large spreads and unpredictable offenses. They balance deep analysis with relatable banter and bold, sometimes comedic, predictions. The show is fun, accessible, and especially useful for fans considering NFL bets or seeking smart context on Week 15 matchups.