The Herd with Colin Cowherd — "What's Wright: NFL Week 16 Predictions"

Date: December 20, 2025
Episode: 406

Overview

This episode of "What's Wright" dives into NFL Week 16 predictions with in-depth betting analysis and game breakdowns. The conversation, led by the Sports Analyst and Co-host, explores which games to avoid, offers key picks against the spread, and delivers candid commentary on standout players and coaching decisions. The episode is geared toward NFL fans seeking smart betting angles, real talk on NFL trends, and behind-the-scenes stories on sports betting.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Review of Week 15 Picks and Season Standing (02:45–07:32)

• Performance Recap:

  • Previous week: 2-3 on the picks (37-36-2 on the year; slightly above .500, but not profitable).
  • Analyst admits, "only one pick that I hate the process on... the only one where the process was bad was [Cincinnati]... bad job by me on the Bengals pick." (06:04)

• Competitive Context:

  • Compared performance to other major sports betting podcasts: “...every show’s like five games, six games, eight games under .500—we’re just muddling along at .500. Not feeling great about it, but we’d be crushing over there.” (05:56)

• Sponsor Shoutouts:

  • Regular reminders that picks are presented by Hard Rock Bet.

2. “Stay Away” Games (Games NOT Worth Betting) (07:32–16:18)

The analyst and co-host systematically explain which games they’re avoiding and the reasoning:

• Philly at Washington (-6.5):

  • “Divisional home dog getting almost a touchdown against a shaky offense… feels like a spot I should jump on Washington… but I have to be open to the possibility that [Philly] figured some stuff out.” Lean: Washington if forced, but stay away. (07:40–08:43)

• Green Bay at Chicago (+1):

  • Analyst uncertain due to Green Bay’s defense injuries and Caleb (Chicago) being “a roller coaster.”
  • Direct quote: “He was so bad in the first half but then so good in the second half… it feels like a coin flip.” (08:49–09:49)

• Jets at New Orleans (-4.5):

  • “If it’s a game this bad between teams this bad, I don’t want to spend emotional energy on it.” (09:55)

• Cincinnati at Miami (-4):

  • Can't back a 7th-round rookie (Quinn Ewers) in his first start; can't lay points with inconsistent Cincy either. (10:41)

• Buffalo at Cleveland (+10):

  • Considered Buffalo, but feels like a “trap game spot.” Leans Buffalo but skips. (11:21–12:11)

• Minnesota at Giants (+3):

  • “Jackson Dart just lives in the concussion tent… Giants just want the season to be over.” No faith in either. (12:18)

• Atlanta at Arizona (+3):

  • “So square to take a bad team on the road and lay points.” Lays off. (12:47–13:26)

• Pittsburgh at Detroit (-7):

  • Likes Detroit but “laying a full touchdown against a Mike Tomlin team in December has not been historically a great bet.” (13:37–15:08)

• Vegas at Houston (-14):

  • Houston hasn’t consistently blown teams out, 14 is a lot, and the Raiders are so bad it’s tempting. Ultimately, passes. (15:08–16:18)

• San Francisco at Indy (+6):

  • “Really stared at San Francisco… but not backing Rivers against Salah’s defense.” (16:23)

Notable Quote:

On betting philosophy:

“If I were a professional sports bettor...I would have an obligation to handicap every game. But at this point, if it’s a game this bad...I don’t want to spend emotional energy on it.” — Sports Analyst (09:55)

3. Main Picks & Deep Dives (20:02–30:52)

A. Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (20:02–24:04)

• Analyst strongly predicts a Titans upset:
  • “I think the Titans are going to win this game outright…combination of the drop-off from Mahomes to Minshew and everything Patrick was papering over… devastating offensive line injuries…” (20:13–21:17)
• Additional factors:
  • “If Travis has one moment left in him…that’s going to be his final home game next week at Arrowhead…”
  • Analyst shares a story about a recurring Chiefs bet rivalry in his group chat—a humorous behind-the-scenes look. (21:56–23:59)

B. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Carolina Panthers (24:04–25:40)

• “Just a line in the sand game—flatly, Tampa Bay wins this game and they essentially lock up the division… I think they can rebound…I love this game at 2.5, I’m okay with it at 3.” (24:09–25:28)

C. Dallas Cowboys (-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (25:40–28:24)

• Dallas needs the win much more than LAC, who essentially have a playoff spot locked in.
• Analyst mentions Dallas as a “week-to-week team” but believes it’s a key bounce-back opportunity.
• “Pickens needs a bounce-back, Dak is going to perform, I just think Dallas is a good spot here...” (25:43–28:24)

D. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Denver Broncos (28:24–30:00)

• Deep stat: Teams on 11+ game win streaks (like Denver) are only 14–36 ATS since 1990.
• “I’ll take the Jags getting three points…” (28:28)

E. New England Patriots (+3) at Baltimore Ravens (30:00–31:59)

• “I think New England’s better and I’m getting the points. I don’t believe in the Ravens… I just think the Patriots coming off a terrible loss… I’m getting the better team and the better coach right now.” (30:02)

4. Teaser Bets & Betting Process Talk (31:59–34:12)

• Recap of Last Week’s “Teaser” Loss (32:18–32:55)

  • Lost due to a last-minute defensive play; recounted as a “heartbreaker” for bettors.

• This Week’s Three-Team Eight-Point Teaser (+100) (32:55–34:09)

  • Teaser legs:
    • Tennessee up to +11.5
    • Buffalo down to -2
    • Pittsburgh up to +15
  • Analyst feedback: “Buffalo is a great leg, the Titans are an excellent leg… I’ll give you an A.” (33:29)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It helps us out a ton if you like, rate, subscribe, review…” (02:45)
• “Only one pick that I hate the process on… the only one where the process was bad was [Cincinnati]...” (06:04)
• “It's so funny, it's like dude you got dropped by the Jets, bro, you're an outcast.” — on the Rogers “castoff” press conference (13:57)
• “I think the Titans are going to win this game outright, guys.” (20:13)
• “If I were a professional sports bettor… I would have an obligation to handicap every game. But at this point, if it’s a game this bad between teams this bad, I don’t want to spend emotional energy on it.” (09:55)
• “Teams on insane winning streaks historically have been terrible covering…” (28:28)
• “I think New England’s better and I’m getting the points...” (30:02)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:45 — Opening and Week 15 recap
• 07:32 — “Stay away” games and spread logic
• 13:57 — Rogers “castoff” press conference discussion
• 20:02 — Titans vs. Chiefs pick and backstory
• 24:04 — Buccaneers at Panthers pick
• 25:40 — Cowboys vs. Chargers pick
• 28:24 — Jaguars at Broncos pick
• 30:00 — Patriots at Ravens pick
• 31:59 — Teaser segment and betting process talk
• 33:29 — Analyst feedback on teaser bet

Final Picks Recap

• Titans +3.5 vs. Chiefs (20:02)
• Buccaneers -3 at Panthers (24:04)
• Cowboys -2 vs. Chargers (25:40)
• Jaguars +3 at Broncos (28:24)
• Patriots +3 at Ravens (30:00)

Teaser:

• Tennessee +11.5, Buffalo -2, Pittsburgh +15 (32:55)

Summary Tone & Style

Conversation blends analytical rigor with laid-back, humorous sports talk. The hosts give honest self-assessments, admit betting blunders, and trade stories of community betting rivalries, all while delivering sharp insights and actionable picks for NFL Week 16.

For fans or bettors who missed the episode:
This breakdown delivers all the actionable insights, rationales, and memorable moments—no need to skip through ads or wade through the podcast intro. The episode is packed with strategy and honesty, perfect for anyone looking to get sharp for Week 16.