The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "What's Wright: NFL Week 17 Predictions"

Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Nick Wright
Producer/Co-Host: Damanze
Presented By: iHeartPodcasts, The Volume, Boost Mobile, Hard Rock Bet

Overview

In this special "What's Wright" NFL Christmas Week gambling episode (Ep. 408), Nick Wright and producer/co-host Damanze break down their predictions and best bets for NFL Week 17. The duo reviews last week’s picks, unpacks “stay away” lines, debates the biggest home underdogs in memory, and delivers their top five Week 17 plays. They close out with their signature teasers, a festive Christmas Day parlay, and a deep-dive into player incentives and prop bets. The tone is lively, reflective, and irreverently honest—perfect for NFL fans looking for sharp and entertaining sports betting insights.

Episode Breakdown

1. Past Week Recap & Season Record

[02:14-07:51]

• Nick opens by reviewing last week’s picks, noting he went 3-2, with all three underdog picks winning outright.
• He laments missing a massive parlay by including Tampa Bay (which lost).
• Season Record Update: 40-38-2.
  • Nick: “Folks would move mountains to be two games above .500. So we're feeling great about that.” (06:53)
• Acknowledgement that Damanze’s teaser hit again, locking in a profitable season.

2. Nick and Damanze’s NFL Gambling Philosophy

[07:51-14:39]

• Injury Uncertainty: Full disclosure that this episode was taped on Tuesday with no finalized injury reports.
• Betting Strategy:
  • “Bet favorites early and dogs late”—classic approach due to typical line movement.
  • Explanation: If you like a favorite, bet early; underdog, bet late.
• The duo outlines “stay away” games due to quarterback uncertainty, motivation issues, and line volatility.

3. “Stay Away” Games: Key Rationale & Reactions

3.1 Lions at Vikings

[07:51-08:45]

• Minnesota is a six-point underdog, but with QB uncertainty, Nick passes.
• Emotional fatigue for Detroit after two tough losses considered.
  • Nick: “Not being eliminated from the playoffs but damn near being eliminated…laying six points against a really well coached team on the road. I'm not doing it.” (07:58)

3.2 Broncos at Chiefs

[08:45-10:47]

• Chiefs are 13-point home underdogs—possibly the largest home dog in decades.
  • Nick: “I think in the NFL the Chiefs on Christmas might be the biggest home dog since 1984.” (08:52)
• Despite the wild line, neither wants to bet Denver (questionable motivation on a short week).

3.3 Texans at Chargers

[10:47-12:20]

• Chargers favored by 2.5 but untrustworthy offensive line and Houston’s up-and-down offense scare Nick off.

3.4 Ravens at Packers

[12:20-12:35]

• Too much quarterback uncertainty to make a confident pick.

3.5 Cardinals at Bengals

[12:35-13:08]

• Cincinnati shouldn’t be full touchdown favorites; Arizona might be able to score, so Nick stays away.

3.6 Saints at Titans

[13:08-13:29]

• Leans Saints but unsure if Titans’ recent win was a sign of life or just a fluke.

3.7 Seahawks at Panthers

[13:29-14:39]

• Thought about Carolina (+7.5), but Seattle’s extra rest and potential lack of motivation for Panthers leads to another stay away.

3.8 Other Stay-Aways

[17:00-18:30]

• Tampa Bay at Miami: Nick is “too mad at Tampa” to back them, even against Miami's backup QB.
• Patriots at Jets: Division game, enormous spread. “I can't take the Jets under any circumstances, but I also can't take a road team in a divisional matchup laying 13 points. So I'm staying away.” (17:28)
• Giants at Raiders: Both teams “just awful,” unclear who wants the win (draft position implications).
• Rams at Falcons (MNF): Line is right on; Rams "should win by a touchdown," so it's a pass.

4. Best Bets: Wright’s Five Picks

[18:30-21:57]

4.1 Dallas Cowboys -6.5 @ Washington Commanders

[18:42]

• Nick expects a blowout; Washington’s likely QB starter (Josh Johnson) “can’t move the ball.”
• “Dak owns the Commanders…12 and 2 straight up and they've covered five in a row.” (18:46)

4.2 Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts

[19:31]

• Jags motivated to clinch the division; Colts seem to be unraveling.
• “Jags have been crushing the AFC South…5-0 against the spread in their last five against the AFC South.” (19:31)

4.3 Pittsburgh Steelers -4 @ Cleveland Browns

[20:23]

• Despite divisional caution, Nick dislikes Cleveland rookie QB Shador Sanders.
• “For a Pittsburgh team that knows we take care of business here...I'll lay the four points.” (20:23)

4.4 Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

[20:56]

• Nick is bullish on Buffalo, citing Philly’s lack of motivation.
• “I think Buffalo's a lot better than Philly. They're at home. I'm laying less than a field goal.” (20:56)

4.5 Chicago Bears +3 @ San Francisco 49ers

[21:57]

• Bears have a matchup edge in the run game; extra rest compared to Niners.
• “I think the Bears can win that game outright.” (21:57)

5. Damanze’s Teaser of the Week

[23:30-24:31]

• Three-team, 8-point teaser at +100:
  • Philly +10.5 (vs. Buffalo)
  • Jacksonville +1.5 (@ Indianapolis)
  • Chicago +11 (@ San Francisco)
• Nick: “As much as I don't love you teasing through the zero with Jacksonville, I love this teaser. Yeah, I'm going to give you an A.” (24:19)

6. Nick’s Christmas Day Parlay & Player Props

[24:50-26:31]

6.1 Christmas Day Parlay (Teaser)

[25:04]

• Six-point teaser with all favorites:
  • Dallas to -0.5
  • Detroit to a pick'em
  • Denver to -7
• “It's a very square teaser, buddy…it's a six point Christmas Day teaser at plus 140. That's what we're doing.” (25:30)

6.2 Player Incentive Bet (Nick Wright Exclusive)

[26:06]

• Sam Darnold needs 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns to hit contract incentives. Bet for Darnold 200+ pass yards & 2+ TDs at +140. Nick accepts; Hard Rock Bet to post as a Nick Wright exclusive.
• TD Genie prop: Add Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a touchdown scorer at even money.
• “We're gonna hit these. I feel good about it.” (26:31)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I told you guys the Chiefs were going to struggle to score 10 points. They scored nine and looked terrible.” (04:10)
• “In the NFL, the Chiefs on Christmas might be the biggest home dog since 1984.” (08:52)
• “I'm not betting Minnesota because I don't know the quarterback is. Staying away.” (07:58)
• “I can't take the jets under any circumstances, but I also can't take a road team…laying 13 points. So I'm staying away.” (17:28)
• “Dak owns the Commanders in his career. 12 and 2 straight up and they've covered five in a row.” (18:46)
• “I think the Bears can win that game outright.” (21:57)
• “As much as I don't love you teasing through the zero with Jacksonville, I love this teaser…I’m going to give you an A.” (24:19)
• “It's a very square teaser, buddy…it's a six point Christmas Day teaser at plus 140. That's what we're doing.” (25:30)

Key Picks and Timestamps

| Segment | Game/Bet | Pick | Timestamp | |---------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------------------|------------| | Five Key Picks | Cowboys @ Commanders | DAL -6.5 | 18:42 | | | Jaguars @ Colts | JAX -6.5 | 19:31 | | | Steelers @ Browns | PIT -4 | 20:23 | | | Bills vs. Eagles | BUF -2.5 | 20:56 | | | Bears @ 49ers | CHI +3 | 21:57 | | Teaser of the Week | PHI +10.5, JAX +1.5, CHI +11 | 8-pt, 3-team, +100 | 23:58 | | Christmas Day Parlay | DAL -0.5, DET pk, DEN -7 | 6-pt teaser, +140 | 25:24 | | Player Prop (Exclusive) | Darnold o200yds, 2+ TDs | +140 | 26:06 |

Tone and Style

The conversation is candid, sharp, and packed with both statistical and psychological angles. Nick leans on historical references, hard numbers, and personal betting stories. Damanze brings additional research, humor, and devil’s advocacy. Both speakers are self-deprecating, especially about past losses, adding to the episode’s relatable and entertaining feel.

For Listeners Who Missed the Show

This episode is a crash course in actionable NFL gambling insight for Week 17, blending sharp analysis, betting philosophy, and engaging banter. Nick and Damanze’s “stay away” rationales and top picks are great learning points for both casual bettors and seasoned fans ahead of a loaded Christmas football schedule.