The Herd with Colin Cowherd
What’s Wright – NFL Week 18 Predictions: Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, Panthers-Bucs, Lions-Bears | Nick Wright
Date: January 2, 2026
Host: Nick Wright
Guest/Co-host: Damante
Theme: NFL Week 18 Betting Picks, Predictions, and Analysis
Episode Overview
Nick Wright hosts his weekly NFL gambling and predictions episode, diving deep into the challenges of betting Week 18. He reviews last week’s results, lays out his path to finishing the season above .500, sifts through the final regular season slate, and gives detailed rationale for the five picks he’s betting. Alongside co-host Damante, Nick also breaks down teaser options and shares his anytime touchdown pick. The tone is candid, energetic, and humorously self-reflective on past losses and notorious Week 18 volatility.
Episode Structure
- Recap of Last Week & Season Record (02:51 – 08:55)
- Games Being Avoided and Why (08:55 – 15:09)
- Nick’s Five Week 18 Picks – Rationale and Analysis (19:56 – 23:19)
- Damante’s Teaser Bets & Discussion (24:57 – 26:58)
- Touchdown Genie Pick (27:18 – 27:34)
- Closing Reflections & Season Perspective (27:34 – 28:30)
Detailed Breakdown & Key Insights
1. Recap & Season Context
Timestamps: 02:51 – 08:55
- Nick reviews his betting record, now standing at 41-42-2 for the season.
- "We went one in four. I don't feel badly about any of them." (02:54, Nick)
- Cites last week’s “bad beat” losses, including:
- Dallas -6.5 at Washington hit ("That was a good one to get early...")
- Jacksonville -6.5 vs. Indy lost as line movement went against the pick
- Pittsburgh "stone loser," blamed on QB play: "Rogers just played one of the worst games anyone's played at quarterback all year in a big spot." (05:01, Nick)
- Buffalo losing by one, noting, "If they just don’t miss the first extra point, it doesn’t get blocked, the best case is they win by one." (05:53, Nick)
- Bears +3 against the Niners: held the cover "literally every minute of that game until the final two minutes." (06:23, Nick)
- Sets his season goal: “To finish the regular season at .500 I have to go three and two; to finish above .500 I have to go four and one or five and oh.” (07:15, Nick)
- Self-mockery about a “stupid Christmas Day teaser” loss.
- Overarching theme: Week 18 is “always tricky… we don’t have all the info, but I think I have a sound strategy.” (08:09, Nick)
2. Week 18 Stay-Away Games & Quick Takes
Timestamps: 08:55 – 15:09
Nick and Damante list the games they are passing on, rapidly outlining “stay away” logic based on lack of motivation, unknowns, or line uncertainty.
- Cleveland @ Cincinnati: Neither team has anything on the line. "Staying away."
- Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-12.5): Nick notes possible “foot off the gas” issues for the Jags if other games go certain ways. “I don’t love the idea of laying a huge number…” (09:40, Nick)
- Dallas @ Giants: Skeptical of how much Dak or Giants starters will play. "Just staying away from it." (10:45, Nick)
- New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3): “I kind of like New Orleans the way Tyler Shuck’s been playing, but… I’ll stay away.” (11:17, Nick)
- Indianapolis @ Houston (-10.5): Colts starting Riley Leonard, but Nick doubts Houston’s ability to cover that number. “Houston really needs the game. I just don’t think Houston’s offense is good enough to lay ten and a half points…” (11:45, Nick)
- Green Bay @ Minnesota (-6.5): Packers locked into the 7. “I’m not wagering American dollars on that game.” (12:44, Nick)
- Chargers @ Denver (-13): Denver needs a win for 1 seed but huge number and likely low possession game. “Just staying away.” (13:20, Nick)
- Washington @ Philly (-7.5): Unsure if/when Philly will rest starters. “Don’t think Philly’s offense is trustworthy enough to lay more than a touchdown.” (13:33, Nick)
- Detroit @ Chicago (-2.5): “Dan Campbell’s team isn’t going to quit on Dan Campbell... just staying away.” (14:01, Nick)
- Jets @ Buffalo (-7.5): “Means they’re worried Josh Allen might sit or might only play a half.” (14:26, Nick)
- Arizona @ Rams (-8): Conditional bet, dependent on Saturday night result. “I will bet the Rams IF Seattle wins Saturday night…” (14:41, Nick)
Memorable Meta Moment:
- “I’m not wagering American dollars on [Packers-Vikings].” (12:44, Nick)
3. The Five Week 18 Bets and Analysis
Timestamps: 19:56 – 23:19
Nick’s final regular season slate, with rationale:
1. Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Carolina
- "Sorry Baker, just can't go out like this... Tampa's been one of the worst teams in football for two months, but they're at home... I just don’t think Tampa is going to go out this sad. I’ll lay the two and a half." (20:04, Nick)
2. Seattle -1 at San Francisco
- “I don’t think the Niners defense… is going to be able to impact Darnold the way the Rams have… I think Seattle gets the one seed… I’ll lay the point. I think they win.” (20:39, Nick)
- Note: Nick references Darnold’s prior struggles and Seattle’s earlier missed opportunity.
3. Las Vegas +5.5 vs. Kansas City
- “The Chiefs offense right now just can't be five and a half point favorites against anybody… They can't run the ball, they can't pass the ball, they can't move the football and they're on the road.” (21:30, Nick)
- Adds playoff gamesmanship: “The Chiefs’ ability to cost the Raiders the number one overall pick… is legitimately valuable.” (21:54, Nick)
4. Miami +12 at New England
- “Just a lot of points. Mike McDaniel trying to save his job and there’s usually one Week 18 big favorite that needs the game… and suddenly it’s tied in the fourth quarter. It feels like it might be this one.” (22:33, Nick)
- Questions if the bad weather is a Dolphins or Tua problem, highlights value on the points.
5. Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Baltimore
- "I don't really care who's playing quarterback for Baltimore... I'm just like Pittsburgh getting the points. This game is going... Someone's winning this game by three. I don't know who. I'm getting three and a half points. So I'll take Pittsburgh." (23:19, Nick)
- Mentions Tomlin’s record ATS in divisional games.
4. Damante’s Teaser & Side Discussion
Timestamps: 24:57 – 26:58
- Damante recaps last week’s “three team, eight point teaser” win.
- This week’s teaser:
- Carolina up to +10.5
- Pittsburgh up to +11.5
- Buffalo essentially Pick’em
- Damante: “I’m feeling so...”
- Nick questions if there’s a safer third leg, but ultimately agrees: “What’s not a question is that the Jets are really bad. And I think even if the Bills were trying to give them the game, the Bills could still end up winning it.” (27:06, Nick)
- Also discusses playoff seeding implications for Buffalo—would they prefer playing New England or Jacksonville?
5. Touchdown Genie Pick
Timestamps: 27:18 – 27:34
- Nick’s “Touchdown Genie” for the week:
- Mike Evans, +165, Anytime Touchdown
- Damante jokes: “I think he just needs like a 500 yard game to continue the 1k streak.” (27:29, Damante)
- Nick: “Yeah, that’s all he needs. 500 yard game. So that’s going to end.” (27:34, Nick)
6. Season Reflections and Farewell
Timestamps: 27:34 – 28:30
- Nick’s record:
- “We need to go at least three and two… Five of the six years we’ve done this, only one actual bad year.”
- Playoff outlook: Aiming for another playoff winning streak (“11 and 3 playoff run against the spread. That’s the plan, that’s the hope.”)
- “Happy New Year. Be safe. Even if you’re sober, half the other drivers on the road are not.” (28:20, Nick)
Notable Quotes
- “Rogers just played one of the worst games anyone's played at quarterback all year in a big spot.” (05:01, Nick)
- “I’m not wagering American dollars on that game.” (12:44, Nick)
- “Just a lot of points. Mike McDaniel trying to save his job and there’s usually one Week 18 big favorite that needs the game that all of a sudden it’s tied in the fourth quarter.” (22:33, Nick)
- “The Chiefs’ ability to cost the Raiders the number one overall pick… is legitimately valuable.” (21:54, Nick)
- “We need to go at least three and two just clear. At least. So we can be 500 or better. Five of the six years we’ve done this, only one actual bad year.” (27:37, Nick)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 02:51 – Season recap, last week's picks breakdown
- 08:55 – Games Nick is avoiding and brief rationales
- 19:56 – Start of Nick's five best bets
- 24:57 – Damante’s teaser discussion
- 27:18 – Touchdown Genie (Mike Evans TD pick)
- 27:34 – Season reflections, closing
Final Five Bets Recap
- Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Carolina
- Seattle -1 at San Francisco
- Las Vegas +5.5 vs. Kansas City
- Miami +12 at New England
- Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Baltimore
Bonus: Mike Evans +165 anytime touchdown
Tone:
- Informal, witty, and candid about the perils of Week 18 NFL betting
- Sincere about the challenge but confident in the process
- Highlights both humility about losses and shrewd logic behind each chosen bet
For anyone who missed the episode, this summary gives you all Nick’s logic, betting angles, and the key thinking that sets his show apart during the high-stakes, wild-card chaos of NFL Week 18.