The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "What's Wright" NFL Week 3 Predictions
Guest: Nick Wright | Co-host: Damanze
Date: September 20, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode of The Herd features Nick Wright (filling in for Colin Cowherd) and co-host Damanze diving deep into NFL Week 3 predictions. The dynamic duo reflects candidly on tough betting luck from the previous week and break down five key games for their official picks, providing sharp insights into team matchups, betting strategies, and their famous "teaser" segment. The conversation is packed with gridiron analysis, betting wisdom, and the duo’s signature banter.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Reflecting on Last Week's Picks and Bad Beats
[02:08 - 04:14]
- Nick discusses last week's 2-3 record, explaining that while it looked poor on paper, he feels he got "historically screwed." A notable example:
- Miami vs. New England: Nick had New England +1; game circumstances made this a potential push, but didn’t land his way.
- Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati: Burrow was injured mid-game. Nick laments a smart coaching decision that nonetheless cost his pick due to rare analytical play and a critical pass interference call.
- Cardinals vs. Panthers: “A true nightmare,” as the Cardinals squander a huge lead; Kyler throws a wild interception, and Panthers nearly come back to win outright.
- Chiefs vs. Eagles: No “sour grapes,” but laments missed opportunities (e.g., "Kelsey catch the ball, they win that").
- Nick’s overall performance stands at 5-5 for the year, but he emphasizes process over results.
- Damanze’s teaser picks from last week were a clean sweep (Tampa, Jags, Philly).
“Some weeks I go 4-1 and feel like I got lucky. This past week I went 2-3 and feel like I got historically screwed.”
— Nick Wright [02:23]
Quick Takes on the Week’s “Stay Away” Games
[10:56 - 15:09]
- The duo runs quickly through several matchups they’re NOT officially betting:
- Miami-Buffalo: Already played.
- Jets-Tampa: Too many injured O-linemen for the Bucs; can’t trust them as big favorites.
- Houston-Jacksonville: “Gotta take a break on the Jags,” but wary of the Texans' offense as well.
- Pittsburgh-New England: Damanze is confident New England wins outright; Nick just shrugs, “I hope you’re right.”
- Cincinnati-Minnesota, Vegas-Washington, New Orleans-Seattle, Dallas-Chicago, Arizona-San Francisco, Chiefs-Giants: Generally all too volatile, with injury questions or backup QBs.
“I just gotta take a break on the Jags.”
— Nick Wright [11:25]
Main Event: Nick’s Five Best Bets for Week 3
[15:09 - 22:41]
-
Green Bay -7.5 at Cleveland
- Nick feels “Green Bay is going to annihilate the Browns.”
- Doesn’t believe Cleveland will reach 14 points.
- Cites Matt LaFleur’s 8-1 September ATS record in true road games.
- Notes betting trend: home dogs > TD are strong early in season, but “I just flatly believe that this is a game Cleveland is going to struggle.”
“This was almost 10 earlier in the week... I think Green Bay can get to the mid-20s. I don’t mind laying the touchdown and a half.”
— Nick Wright [15:14] -
Tennessee +3.5 vs. Indianapolis
- Nick clarifies he wants Tennessee plus three and a half at home (co-host misspoke).
- Tennessee “not quite as bad as they’ve looked,” Indy “not nearly as good.”
- Draws parallels to 2024 Saints’ hot start, predicting Indy is due to cool off.
- Likes Tennessee “to win outright.”
“I think Tennessee, I’ll go out and say: first win of the year, an outright winner and I’m getting three and a half.”
— Nick Wright [17:40] -
Atlanta -5 at Carolina
- Believes Carolina’s offensive line injuries and general dysfunction make them “the worst team in the NFL.”
- “I think Carolina will struggle to get to double digits.”
- Expects big game for Bijan Robinson.
“Bryce is in real, real trouble. I don’t mind laying the five points with Atlanta.”
— Nick Wright [18:32] -
Chargers -2.5 vs. Denver
- Chargers seen as a “legitimately, really good team; Denver is not.”
- A “fake home game” atmosphere, but still an edge for LA.
- Chargers’ trends vs. AFC West and September are strong.
- “Bo Nix is going to have just be in hell against that Charger defense.”
“Herbert 7-0-1 against the spread against the AFC West since last season. Harbaugh historically: 13-6-2 ATS in September.”
— Nick Wright [20:04] -
Detroit +4.5 at Baltimore
- Expects a high-scoring, last-team-with-the-ball-wins shootout.
- Believes Detroit “could win,” and four and a half points is strong value.
- “I don’t think Baltimore has the horses” to fluster Goff as Green Bay did.
“I’m not picking Detroit to win, but I think they could win. And I’m getting a full four and a half points in a game that could be 31-27, 35-31, 31-28.”
— Nick Wright [21:45]
Nick’s Five Picks Recap:
- Green Bay -7.5 (at Cleveland)
- Tennessee +3.5 (vs. Indianapolis)
- Atlanta -5 (at Carolina)
- Chargers -2.5 (vs. Denver)
- Detroit +4.5 (at Baltimore)
Damanze’s Week 3 Teaser
[26:23 - 29:12]
-
Two straight teaser wins; wants to keep the heater rolling.
-
“Three team, eight-point tease, plus 100”:
- Cincinnati up to +11
- Rams up to +11.5
- Houston up to +10
-
Both hosts express concerns about Cincy (Jake Browning vs. Brian Flores’ blitzes), but generally think the teaser legs are strong.
“I was just telling Daniel this morning, like, how many teams are going to have a backup quarterback come in a game, throw three picks and lose that game? ...that does scare me a little bit.”
— Damanze [28:49]
“I’m rooting for your teasers now more than I’m rooting for my bets.”
— Nick Wright [29:12]
“Offer of the Week” & Player Props
[30:31 - 32:38]
- Recent history: last week’s combined offer was “the worst offer ever” by Nick’s own admission.
- This week, Damanze’s proposal:
- Three-leg parlay (+185):
- Dak Prescott over 1.5 TDs
- Dak Prescott over 274.5 passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards
- Add Dallas -1 for +325.
- Three-leg parlay (+185):
- Nick pushes back: “We are never doing a three-leg player prop that only gets us +185… The juice isn’t there.”
- They ultimately settle on a “Touchdown Genie” prop:
- CeeDee Lamb anytime TD at -115 as the week’s simple, actionable bet.
“We are never doing a three-leg player prop that only gets us +185. It’s just not happening.”
— Nick Wright [32:12]
“CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown. Minus 115. I’ll do that.”
— Nick Wright [32:30]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “I went 2 and 3 and feel like I got historically screwed.” — Nick Wright [02:23]
- “The only way I could have gotten screwed on Miami was a push, and that thing went... Miami could have won by one. I was getting a point.” — Nick Wright [03:28]
- “I think Green Bay is going to annihilate the Browns.” — Nick Wright [15:14]
- “Tennessee, I’ll go out and say first win of the year, an outright winner, and I'm getting three and a half.” — Nick Wright [17:40]
- “Bryce is in real, real trouble.” — Nick Wright [18:32]
- "Herbert 7-0-1 against the spread against the AFC West since last season." — Nick Wright [20:04]
- “We’re not doing an offer, we’re doing ‘Touchdown genie.’ We’re doing CeeDee Lamb. Minus 115.” — Nick Wright [32:38]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- 02:08 – Recap of last week’s bets, bad beats, Nick’s process
- 10:56 – Quick run-through of games to avoid (and why)
- 15:09 – Main picks start: Green Bay -7.5 at Cleveland
- 16:37 – Tennessee +3.5 vs. Indianapolis analysis
- 18:28 – Atlanta -5 at Carolina breakdown
- 19:54 – Chargers -2.5 vs. Denver match-up
- 21:40 – Detroit +4.5 at Baltimore analysis
- 26:23 – Damanze’s teaser (Cincinnati, Rams, Houston)
- 30:31 – Offer of the week, player prop discussion
Conclusion
This episode delivers Nick Wright’s razor-sharp takes on NFL Week 3, packed with insights on lines, matchups, and betting psychology. Damanze brings more winning energy with his hot teaser streak. The combination of betting advice, banter, and expert football insight makes this a must-listen (or must-read!) for any NFL fan or sharp bettor gearing up for game day.