The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "What's Wright – NFL Week 4 Predictions"

Episode 371 | Published: September 27, 2025
Host: Nick Wright (with Damanze)
Main Focus: NFL Week 4 betting picks and in-depth game analysis

Episode Overview

In this episode of "The Herd," Nick Wright delivers his NFL Week 4 predictions, breaking down his picks, betting strategies, and key matchups, including Ravens-Chiefs, Vikings-Steelers, and Jaguars-49ers. Nick is joined by co-host Damanze as they dissect previous picks, explain their approach for the week ahead, and engage in playful banter over game bets and teasers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap of Week 3 Picks and Lessons Learned

• Nick reflects honestly on a poor week of predictions (02:00-05:10).
  • He went 2-3 last week and described three of his losses as particularly bad picks.
  • Example: “My three losses in week three to Monze are as bad a picks as anyone's ever going to have… Some of them should’ve counted double, they were so bad.” – Nick Wright (03:45)
• Expresses regret over trusting certain teams like Green Bay, Tennessee, and Atlanta.

2. Approach to Week 4: Games to Avoid

• Nick thoroughly runs down the Week 4 NFL schedule, highlighting games he refuses to bet on (08:00-14:00):
  • Examples of stay-away games:
    • Washington vs. Atlanta: Quarterback uncertainty.
    • New Orleans at Buffalo (-15.5): Too many points; risk of “backdoor cover.”
    • Tennessee at Houston: “I'm not betting on Tennessee again with Brian Callahan as the head coach... I'm not doing it again.” – Nick Wright (09:37)
    • Chargers vs. Giants: Risky with a rookie QB.
    • Philly at Tampa: Philly is the right side, but too conservative to trust as a favorite on the road.
    • Green Bay at Dallas, Jets at Miami, and others—all have reasons for caution.

3. Top Five Betting Picks: Deep Dives & Rationale

1. Minnesota -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh (in Dublin)

• Rationale: Favorites in international games have a strong ATS record (32-18).
• Relies on Minnesota’s defense to pressure Aaron Rodgers, who is “bottom three quarterback in the league when pressured” (15:00-17:00).
  • “I love Minnesota laying less than a field goal... I'm not betting Carson Wentz, I'm betting the Vikings defense.” – Nick Wright (15:50)
  • Nick speculates this could be the last we see of Rodgers this season.

2. Cleveland +10 at Detroit

• Rationale:
  • Cleveland defense is “awesome”; Detroit coming off an emotional win on a short week.
  • Large spreads for heavy underdog winners in previous weeks tend to cover (18-9-4 ATS historical trend).
  • “10 is just too many points for a game that I think is going to not be super high scoring.” – Nick Wright (19:18-20:30)

3. Jacksonville +3 at San Francisco

• Rationale: Niners with key injuries (Bosa, Jennings, Pearsall) and Jacksonville's D-line is “legitimate and scary.”
• Recommends waiting to bet until closer to kickoff since the line might swing with injury news (20:50-22:30).
  • “I think Jacksonville is as good as San Francisco and I’m getting a field goal. I’ll take Jacksonville.” – Nick Wright (22:20)

4. Kansas City +2.5 vs. Baltimore

• Rationale:

  • Mahomes’ dominance over Lamar Jackson: 5-1 (SU), 4-2 (ATS).
  • Ravens on short rest, D-line ravaged by injuries (e.g., Matabuike out for the season).
  • Chiefs getting healthier, at home, and “are the more put together team right now.” (22:44-24:00)
  • “The fact that I am getting points in Kansas City against a Ravens team that right now has the worst defense in the conference… just take it.” – Nick Wright (23:30)

• Fun Side Bet:

  • If Ravens win, Nick buys Damanze GTA6 and an in-game currency “shark card.”
  • If Chiefs win, Damanze handles holiday meal kitchen cleanup.
  • “Thanksgiving’s rough.” – Damanze (26:09)

5. Cincinnati +7.5 at Denver

• Rationale:
  • Denver shouldn’t be trusted to blow out anyone.
  • Cites skill position talent for Cincinnati, doubts Denver’s shaky offense.
  • “Cincinnati plus 7.5 in a game I think they could win outright. I don't overthink this one.” – Nick Wright (26:28)

Rapid Segment: Damanze’s Week 4 Teaser

(28:14-29:32)

• Teaser Picks (+8 points each):
  • Kansas City up to +10.5
  • Jets up to +10.5
  • Green Bay up to +1.5
• Nick’s grade: “A-… I like this one a lot.” – Nick Wright (29:32)

Special Parlay/Props Segment

(30:12-31:16)

• Nick’s Favorite Prop Offer (Accepted):
  • Travis Kelce 4+ receptions AND Micah Parsons 0.5+ sacks at +146.
  • “Kelsey at least four catches. Micah will get home at least once. I’m taking that offer. Done and done.” – Nick Wright (31:10)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Road team against a great defense in a look ahead spot. I should have known I took the bait somehow.” – Nick on his Green Bay loss (03:00)
• “If Indy wins that game, I will have to take them seriously. But I'm staying away from that one.” – Nick on Indy-Rams (11:49)
• “I am legitimately worried for Rodgers in this game... I don't think that offensive line’s been good, he's not mobile, and they are going to heat him up.” – Nick Wright (16:45)
• Playful banter and bet over Chiefs-Ravens with personal stakes (24:04-26:11).

Timestamps of Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |---------------------------------------|--------------| | Recap of Last Week’s Bad Bets | 02:00-05:10 | | Games Nick is Avoiding | 08:00-14:00 | | Five Main Picks Start (Dublin Game) | 14:48-17:13 | | Cleveland-Detroit Detailed Analysis | 19:14-20:53 | | Jacksonville-SF Betting Insight | 20:53-22:38 | | Chiefs-Ravens, Side Bet Discussion | 22:38-26:23 | | Cincinnati-Denver Analysis | 26:23-28:00 | | Damanze’s Week 4 Teaser | 28:40-29:32 | | Nick’s Favorite Prop/Parlay | 30:12-31:16 |

Episode Takeaways

• Nick is transparent about bad picks and clear about where he sees value.
• Favorites and passing offenses in international games remain a key angle.
• The Chiefs-Ravens matchup stands out for both betting value and podcast drama, with a memorable side bet.
• The episode is packed with actionable betting analysis, humility about past mistakes, and Nick’s signature wit.

For listeners or bettors seeking sharp, well-argued insights, Nick Wright’s Week 4 predictions mix hard-nosed football analysis with humor and high-stakes banter.