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Nick Wright
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Nick Wright
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Damanze
That was the weirdest.
Nick Wright
I was right.
Damanze
That one was super weird. I guess Green Bay Browns is pretty weird but that one was.
Nick Wright
I was 35 points off on this one. I thought Atlanta could win by five. They lost by 3:30. Just awful. Now the Chargers controlled the early part of that game. Denver came back Chargers field goal at the gun so a little lucky there and then Detroit was clearly the right side and it went kind of how I thought it was going to go where I was like last team with the ball wins. Detroit ended up adding an extra score on it but they went for that fourth down late ice the game. So we go two and three this week luckily. I feel great.
Damanze
I like this week's sleep.
Nick Wright
I feel. I feel like we're going to start off 1 and oh before 10am West Coast Time because there's a London game and there's a London game we love. We will get to that in a moment. First, let me remind you guys, today's show was brought to you by by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. If you love betting on sports or you just love sports and want to try betting, the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app makes it simple, packed with great insights and non stop promos every day of the week. Sunday, Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub will have you cover right there in the app showing me Kansas City has won 10 in a row at home against the AFC. You can get some juicy odds if you want to tail Kansas City like I think I will be against Baltimore in the Hard Rock Bet app. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits you not only get your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets tonight. There's games you can get on tonight and you of course can check out all the college action on Saturday and all the great NFL action on Sunday. Boost your same game parlay with or SGP Max so your bet pays extra winnings promos every day. So whenever you're listening to this, open up the app, check out what they've got running any day of the week. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today, take a look around and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-888- admit it in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. All right, Damanze, let's quickly roll through the games that I am not touching. Okay, so what is the first one Thursday night?
Damanze
Are we not. Or I guess we talked about?
Nick Wright
No, because. Because this is. We're doing this on a Thursday, but people are going to hear it on Friday. So Thursday night. I don't have a lean, I don't have a feel. I'm not touching it. And you guys will have already heard it.
Damanze
You got Washington minus one at Atlanta. Staying away from that one.
Nick Wright
Well, that's the line. I don't have the. I don't have. You're just gonna have that this is one of the, I guess the downsides to us doing these early. We don't know the quarterback situation. I can't give you any handicap on it. What I can tell you is Michael Pennix is very lucky that the Atlanta Falcons don't have a real fan base outside of Atlanta or else we'd be talking about him more because he has looked shaky. The next game. Go ahead.
Damanze
New Orleans and Buffalo. New Orleans at Buffalo.
Nick Wright
Yeah. New Orleans getting 15 and a half. That to me is a vintage stay away. It's just so many points. Buffalo can dominate this game and should dominate this game and New Orleans can backdoor cover. I just, I, I'm also full disclosure, not going to be really locked into that game. I think that's going to be a 17 to three early second quarter game over game.
Damanze
Next one you got Tennessee plus seven at Houston.
Nick Wright
Yeah. So I have decided I am not betting on Tennessee again with Brian Callahan as the head coach. Just not doing it until I he. Until he's gone. I will not put any money on the Titans. I've made this mistake twice this year. I'm not doing it again. With that said.
Damanze
Okay.
Nick Wright
Sorry. I can't lay a touchdown with a Texans team that can't score. So that's the definition of a stay away. Next.
Damanze
Next. The Chargers -6 and a half of the Giants.
Nick Wright
I almost included this one. I, I almost included the Giants getting six and a half. But it's a rookie quarterback against a great defense. It's too many points to lay with the Chargers team that's been, you know, been playing very tight games. So I'm not going to lay the touchdown with the Chargers. I kind of like the Giants, but it's a rookie quarterback's first start against a good defense. We'll stay away from it. Next.
Damanze
Next you've got Philly minus three and a half at Tampa.
Nick Wright
Yeah, I think Philly is the right side in this but Philly plays so conservatively that laying more than a field goal on the road just feels foolish. I can't bet Tampa with all those injuries, but if I were to Philly, to me is the right side of it. Next.
Damanze
Carolina plus five and a half at New England.
Nick Wright
Gross. Neither these teams is trustworthy. I understand Carolina just scored 30. I think that's, you know, an aberration. The Patriots can't, you know, just had five turnovers in a game I did. It's just a stay away. Just flatly. I'm not interested in either team, either side of this game. Just flatly staying Away next you got.
Damanze
Indy plus three and a half at the Rams, foreign.
Nick Wright
Rams. But I have, you know, Daniel is right now consistently and I, you know what I don't want to do is after betting against Indy a couple times then overcorrect bet on him and have that be the week that I'm right about them for the season where I think they were that good. But I can't keep betting against them and so I'm very excited to watch that game. If Indy wins that game, I will have to take them seriously. But I'm staying away from that one.
Damanze
Next Chicago plus one at the Raiders.
Nick Wright
I might have been wrong about the Raiders. I believed in the Raiders going into the year. I thought the defense would be better than people said it would be. It kind of has been. I thought Gino was a huge upgrade. He aside from week two he has been. I might have underrated how awful that offensive line is. With that said because I have some real stakes in the ground on the Raiders I don't want to flip entirely and all of a sudden go with the Bears this week. So this is just, I'm just staying away Sunday night Green Bay minus six.
Damanze
And a half at Dallas.
Nick Wright
If I had to bet a side here, I would definitely bet Green Bay. I think though Dak Prescott at home getting almost a full touchdown. Back door cover is going to be wide open the whole game. I, I think that a blowout is far more likely than a Dallas victory but I just don't want to lay a full touchdown on the road and what could be an emotional spot for both teams and I certainly can't bet on Dallas after what their defense has been all year long. All right, last one we're not doing.
Damanze
You got the jets plus two and a half at Miami.
Nick Wright
Yeah. I don't know how you can put an believe in the Dolphins. I also don't think you can right now bet on the jets getting less than a field goal. So those are stay aways. It's always a good sign to Monze when a few of the stay away games I actually like. It's never a good sign when we're down. We're to the fourth pick of my five. Yeah. But I just have to have five. It's a great sign when there's a game like the Giants getting six and a half that I kind of like. Or what was the other one? Philly laying three and a half that I kind of like that. I just am saying we're not doing it because I love these five so Much. Let's start in Dublin.
Damanze
Damanze, you've got Minnesota minus two and a half versus Pit or versus Pittsburgh. I'm sorry, I don't know. I call them.
Nick Wright
Yeah, they'd be minus more against Pitt, the college but against Pittsburgh. I can't believe I don't have to lay a full field goal here. Aaron Rodgers played in overseas last year against Minnesota. That was the famous Mike. Mike's got to be on the red line game. He turned the ball over three times against that Flores defense. I just saw this Minnesota defense absolutely demolish Jake Browning who right now stylistically is not that dissimilar to Rogers. Accurate. Got to get the ball out quick. Favorites in international games are covering machines 32 and 18 against the spread. Rogers has been awful against pressure this year. Bottom three quarterback in the league when pressured. And the Vikings are the top three in the league at bringing pressure. I love Minnesota laying a field. Laying less than a field goal. I understand. That means I'm betting Carson Wentz is a favorite. I don't care. I am. I'm not betting Carson Wentz. I'm betting the Vikings defense minus two and a half against Pittsburgh. And I don't clip this. I don't want this to be correct, but I'm just flagging it. It's on the board. You're shaking your head. Demons A what do you think I'm going to say here?
Damanze
You're going to say Aaron Rodgers might end his season or something like that?
Nick Wright
You said it. Yeah, it's on the board against this defense with that Pittsburgh offensive line that this is the last we see of Aaron. Like I think you ought to be prepared for that. Like I am legitimately worried for Rogers in this game. I don't think that offensive line's been good. He's not mobile and they are going to heat him up. I so I love Minnesota -2 and a half.
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Damanze
Cleveland plus 10 at Detroit.
Nick Wright
So listen. The Cleveland defense is awesome. They're awesome. The Lions offensive line was great against Baltimore's D line. Cleveland's D line with rookie Mason Graham who's been great. Miles Garrett who's just an all time great is very different than Baltimore's defensive line. I also think you've got Detroit short week coming off that emotional win. I the the trends of teams that had a win like Cleveland did early season touchdown bigger dogs that win a game outright the next week 18, 9 and 4 against the spread. I know Detroit's been covering machines. 10 is just too many points for a game that I think is going to not be super high scoring. I think Cleveland's defense can keep them in games. Week one Cleveland's defense kept him in the Cincy game. Week three Cleveland's defense won in the game. Week four against Baltimore Cleveland's defense was good. Cleveland had more passing yards, rushing yards, third down, more time possession than Baltimore lost by a million because they had a pump blocked. They there's a fumble, there was a pick. If Cleveland just takes care of the ball they can keep this to within single digits. I'll take Cleveland plus 10 next.
Damanze
Yeah Jacksonville plus three at the Niners.
Nick Wright
Yeah I I think that Trevor's going to have time to throw with Nikki Bosa out. I also think that whether it's Mac Jones or Purdy that Jacksonville D line is legitimate and is is scary and I think that the Niners to their credit have found ways to win. They it's been close games and I think those three points are super super valuable. Now I will tell you this because we're recording this on Thursday. If you like Jacksonville on this spot I would wait to bet them because I think Purdy is going to play and I think that this line goes at least to three and a half and maybe to four. But the Niners it's not only that obviously Bose is out but as of when Wednesday Juwan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall weren't practicing. Another defensive lineman Gross Matos was not practicing. They Trent Williams the is healthy but and so he didn't practice but that was just rest related. I just I think Jacksonville is as good as San Francisco and I'm getting a field goal. I'll take Jacksonville next.
Damanze
Can't. Who would have known Kansas City plus two and a half versus Baltimore.
Nick Wright
I mean Mahomes doesn't lose to Lamar. The Ravens are on a short week. The Ravens D line Wednesday to Monday every single one of the Ravens starting D lineman missed practice. Every single one. We know Matabuque is not playing and that's a bigger story for them for the whole season because he might be his neck injury is like really scary. But the Chiefs are at home. I believe the Chiefs are better than Baltimore. The Chiefs need it. They are getting Xavier worthy back. They are the more rested team. They are the more put together team right now. They are the team that comes into this game more confident and I I think the Lamar versus the Chiefs thing is real and the fact that I am getting points in Kansas City against a Ravens team that right now has the worst defense in the conference. I'll just take it. And Patrick by the way five and one in his career against Lamar. Four and two against the spread. I'll take the Chiefs here. This is also where you and I need to discuss.
Damanze
But yeah, what do you want to throw on the line?
Nick Wright
So what do you if the Ravens win? What do you want from me?
Damanze
The best thing I could think of. I mean this is way later down the road. I think this is in March. Grand Theft Auto 6 is coming out and the prices of games these days have gone up. Used to be 60 it's like 70 now but that's like A game that everybody's been waiting on. So that one might be like $100. So I would love to, like, not have to come out of pocket for Grand Theft Auto 6. The Ravens win the game straight up.
Nick Wright
All right, so if the Ravens win the game straight up, this is a straight up bet, not a spread.
Damanze
Yeah, not spread. Yeah.
Nick Wright
Is there anything else game related that you're going to want when that comes out? Like a headset or anything else related? Like, I don't know how Grand Theft Auto works these days. Is there?
Damanze
Yeah. I mean, if you want to throw some extra money, I could buy a shark card. Throw some money on there immediately. It's like, what's a shark card? It's like, okay, for the, it's like in game currency, 100% be like 5 million, whatever.
Nick Wright
On. It's like. What's it V bucks on.
Damanze
Exactly, Exactly. It's Grand Theft Autos.
Nick Wright
V. All right. Okay, Done. Here's what I want from you, okay? Whatever the next holiday you come home for, from all of my.
Damanze
All of.
Nick Wright
My kitchen cleanup responsibilities fall to you.
Damanze
Okay.
Nick Wright
Not for the whole time, but for what? There's Thanksgiving dinner or Christmas dinner, whatever.
Damanze
Yeah, the big.
Nick Wright
Okay, the big, the, the one big meal. Kitchen cleanup responsibilities are yours and yours. Like, there's not going to be any. You're going to have. You're the one that tells your mom, I lost a bet. I have to do this. He's not allowed to.
Damanze
Yeah, I'll take it. Thanksgiving's rough.
Nick Wright
But, but, yeah, that's why I added that shark card. Because I. Yeah, okay. All right. We have a best. All right. All right. Deal. All right. What's the last pick of the week?
Damanze
Last pick is Cincinnati plus seven and a half at Denver.
Nick Wright
I couldn't believe this line. I couldn't believe it. Listen, I understand Cincinnati has not looked good with Browning. I get that. He's not going to turn the ball over three times every game. They still have those skill position guys. Denver. Why would you trust Denver to blow anybody out? Like, I just, I'm getting more than a touchdown. Cincinnati plus seven and a half in a game. I think they could win outright. So. Yeah, I, I, I don't overthink this one. Cincinnati plus seven and a half. They can win outright. Patan's not playing great. Denver's offense is shaky at best. Yes. Give me the seven and a half. All right, so our four, five picks this week, four dogs, one favorite in Ireland, Minnesota minus two and a half against Pittsburgh. Cleveland getting 10 at Detroit. Jacksonville getting three at San Francisco, Kansas City getting two and a half at home against Baltimore and Cincinnati getting seven and a half at Denver. Before we get to Demons Teaser, let me remind you guys, if you're thinking about upgrading to the all new iPhone 17 Pro, it's designed to be the most powerful iPhone ever, but you're also maybe thinking about all the traffic on your way to the store and having to transfer all your data. How about this? When you order a new iPhone, when you order a new phone online with Boost Mobile, they'll send an expert to your home or your work to deliver your brand new iPhone 17 Pro and get you all set up on Boost Mobile within minutes. You don't have to go anywhere. They come to you and it's no hassle. They take care of it. Visit boostmobile.com to get started. Delivery available for select devices. Purchase@boostmobile.com terms do apply. All right, Damanze, you took one on the chin last week with the teaser. Three team eight pointer ranch plus 11 was a great one. Houston plus 10. I don't know if we can show Houston plus 10 solid. Cincinnati plus 11. Brian Flores did it to you, pal.
Damanze
Yeah, that was. That was just a problem in my process there. I should have. There were a lot of other games on the slate that I could have chosen. Cincinnati after dealing with a backup quarterback in their second game, there's this other landscape I should have chosen differently and you could have doubled the teaser and still would have lost. But this week is a three team eight point teaser for plus 100. We were teasing Kansas City up to plus 10 and a half, the jets up to plus 10 and a half and Green Bay up to plus one and a half. I am aware of Green Bay down.
Nick Wright
Essentially all the way to one and a half.
Damanze
Yeah, I'm aware that the Browns are out there. That was another. Another one that I liked a lot. I would have liked to tease that one, but this is the one that we're going with. I don't see Green Bay losing that game and but yeah, I agree with that.
Nick Wright
I listen, Kansas City doesn't get blown out. Green Bay is not going to lose. I. You're also not getting as much value if you do Cleveland because you're not getting through his key of numbers. With the jets you get through all the key numbers and the question is can the Dolphins blow anybody out? The answer to that's probably no because you are teasing through the zero. I can't give you a straight A. I will give you an A minus. I Like this one a lot. Okay. I like this one a lot. Producers, you guys had in there an offer earlier that I was going to take.
Damanze
Oh, wow.
Nick Wright
The. The end. It's gone now. So see. So Damani, let's go to the offer that they. The offers they have in there now and I'm going to tell you if I'll take those as well. But there is one that I'm interested in.
Damanze
Yeah. So you said that this was time for Kelsey to use one of his good games. So Kelsey, six plus receptions is at plus 2:30. Or if you want to get really spicy and dangerous with it, you can go. Kelsey, eight plus receptions for plus 900.
Nick Wright
So I'm not going to take either one of those. But they had in there earlier a Kelsey, here it is. This one is plus money and I like it a lot. I like this offer and I'm going to take this offer. You got it, Demanze?
Damanze
Yeah. Oh. So Kelsey, four plus receptions and Parsons over to have a sack at plus one 46.
Nick Wright
So half a sack. So over half a sack. So that. So if he gets half a sack, we don't lose it.
Damanze
Oh.
Nick Wright
Reduces because you can get half sacks. So Kelsey have at least four catches. Micah over half a sack plus 1:46. I am taking that offer. I. I think Kelsey's gonna have at least four catches. I think Micah will get home at least once. I'm taking that offer. Done and done. First off year that we're taking. I love it. All right, thank you to all our great sponsors. Thank you to Blue Duck. Thank you to Volume. Thank you to all you guys. Please like Rate Subscribe Review Good luck to everybody this weekend. Ryder cup amazing day of of college football on Saturday. Ireland game Sunday morning. Chiefs Ravens Sunday afternoon. Great weekend of football. Talk to you guys later. What's right. All right, thank you so much. Appreciate you guys. Gotta run. Bye.
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Nick Wright
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Episode 371 | Published: September 27, 2025
Host: Nick Wright (with Damanze)
Main Focus: NFL Week 4 betting picks and in-depth game analysis
In this episode of "The Herd," Nick Wright delivers his NFL Week 4 predictions, breaking down his picks, betting strategies, and key matchups, including Ravens-Chiefs, Vikings-Steelers, and Jaguars-49ers. Nick is joined by co-host Damanze as they dissect previous picks, explain their approach for the week ahead, and engage in playful banter over game bets and teasers.
Rationale:
Fun Side Bet:
(28:14-29:32)
(30:12-31:16)
| Segment | Timestamps | |---------------------------------------|--------------| | Recap of Last Week’s Bad Bets | 02:00-05:10 | | Games Nick is Avoiding | 08:00-14:00 | | Five Main Picks Start (Dublin Game) | 14:48-17:13 | | Cleveland-Detroit Detailed Analysis | 19:14-20:53 | | Jacksonville-SF Betting Insight | 20:53-22:38 | | Chiefs-Ravens, Side Bet Discussion | 22:38-26:23 | | Cincinnati-Denver Analysis | 26:23-28:00 | | Damanze’s Week 4 Teaser | 28:40-29:32 | | Nick’s Favorite Prop/Parlay | 30:12-31:16 |
For listeners or bettors seeking sharp, well-argued insights, Nick Wright’s Week 4 predictions mix hard-nosed football analysis with humor and high-stakes banter.