The Herd with Colin Cowherd | What's Wright – NFL Week 5 Predictions

Guest/Analyst: Nick Wright
Date: October 4, 2025
Main Focus: Nick Wright and co-host break down NFL Week 5, sharing betting advice, game analysis, and their top picks.

Episode Overview

This episode dives into Nick Wright’s thought process for his NFL Week 5 picks, notable betting strategies, and banter with the co-host. The show maintains its signature blend of sharp analysis, humor, and candid talk about wins, losses, and lessons from previous weeks. Listeners get an inside look at how Nick approaches NFL betting and matchup analysis, including his "no bet" philosophy and value-based pick selection.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Review of Previous Week’s Bets

• Nick recaps his 2-3 record for the previous week, now 9-11 on the season (03:00).
• He candidly admits some bad reads:
  • Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh: Misjudged Minnesota's defense; "I had the Minnesota-Pittsburgh game all wrong… Pittsburgh kind of butchered the end... but they obviously still won." (03:30)
  • Cleveland at Detroit: Overestimated Cleveland's defense, underestimated Flacco’s struggles (03:42).
  • Jacksonville vs. San Francisco: "They were basically covering the entire game. I said they could win outright. They did win outright." (03:54)
  • Kansas City vs. Baltimore: Confident in Chiefs, "vintage never-a-doubter."
  • Cincinnati at Denver: Bengals’ collapse after Burrow’s injury, candidly calls it a brutal pick.

2. "No Bet" List & Lessons Learned

• Co-host suggests putting Cincinnati on the "no bet" list (04:42).
• Nick’s philosophy: “Sometimes a team plays its way seemingly on the no bet list but they're so bad that… they get so many points.” (04:53)
• Fun, competitive banter about side bets (kitchen cleanup, Thanksgiving chores, 05:42).

3. Market & Line Reactions

• Nick outlines how betting lines shift based on team news/injuries, particularly with the Baltimore line (17:09).
• Big on evaluating whether the market has overreacted or underreacted to recent performances.

4. Game-by-Game Quick Hits (12:36–17:05)

Nick and co-host run through games they’re avoiding and why:

• Minnesota vs. Cleveland: Rookie QB debut for Cleveland, but disappointment from Minnesota—stay away.
• Miami at Carolina: Miami limited without Tyreek, "I also don't want to have any reason to watch this game." (13:25)
• Giants at New Orleans: Line feels like a "trap"—"It just feels like they are begging you to take the Giants.” (14:08)
• Tampa Bay at Seattle: Leaned Tampa but pulled away due to injury worries.
• Tennessee at Arizona: "Will never lay more than a touchdown with Kyler Murray." (15:28)
• Washington at Chargers: Wants to see Jaden after injury before betting.
• Detroit at Cincinnati: "So many points at home… we're just staying away from the Bengals for now." (16:12)
• Kansas City at Jacksonville: Intriguing, but tough line—won't bet against Chiefs, won't bet at this number either (16:29).

Nick Wright’s Official Picks (17:05–22:56)

1. Baltimore +1.5 vs Houston (17:09)

• Likes value after drastic line swing due to Lamar injury.
• “I think Baltimore is going to win… Even if [Lamar] doesn’t play, I think Baltimore +1.5 is the right side.”

2. Dallas -2.5 at Jets (18:36)

• "Dallas can score on anybody. The Jets' defense is allowing 30 a game… I’ll lay the two and a half with Dallas."

3. Philadelphia -3.5 vs Denver (19:41)

• Noting Denver hasn’t beaten Philly since Elway era.
• "Philly being at home and only favored by three and a half feels a little disrespectful. It’s a little too respectful to Denver."

4. Las Vegas +6.5 at Indianapolis (21:01)

• “Last chance saloon for my Raiders… They need a win to stay viable… I think the Raiders could surprise them.”

5. New England +7.5 at Buffalo (22:10)

• Takes divisional dog; "I don’t really trust the Bills defense… I just like New England getting seven and a half at Buffalo."

Summary of Picks:

• Three Dogs: Baltimore, Las Vegas, New England
• Two Favorites: Dallas, Philadelphia

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On bad picks:

  • “I had the Minnesota-Pittsburgh game all wrong... Instead, [Pittsburgh] got the ball out immediately.” (03:30, Nick Wright)

• On Chiefs at Jaguars:

  • “People ask me, do you bet on the Chiefs every week? ... I never bet against them.” (16:35, Nick Wright)

• On Philly/Denver:

  • “Philly being at home and only favored by three and a half feels a little disrespectful. It’s a little too respectful to Denver and a little disrespectful to Philly.” (19:41, Nick Wright)

• On betting the Pats at Buffalo:

  • “I don’t really trust the Bills defense... Divisional matchup, huge spot for Varel and Drake May, I just like it.” (22:10, Nick Wright)

Teasers and Props Segment (28:00–33:16)

Co-host’s Winning Teaser Recap

• Previous week’s three-team, 8-point teaser wins (28:06).
  • Discussion of why you rarely “tease through zero,” with a funny example due to a tie.
  • "You tease through zero in a game that ended in a tie. I'm just—it's unbelievable. It's perfect." (29:32, Nick Wright)

This Week’s Teaser (30:16)

• Miami +7 (at Carolina)
• New England +16 (at Buffalo)
• Kansas City +4.5 (at Jacksonville)
  • Nick gives it a “C minus”—"Miami scares me… you're getting almost no key numbers with New England… I’m just being honest." (31:00, Nick Wright)

Offer Parlay (32:06)

• Last week’s offer hit (Travis Kelsey, Micah Parsons props).
• This week:
  • Cam Scatterboo (TD) + Jackson Dart (Over 24.5 rush yards) at +150.
  • “Scatterbox, cd, Dart running around. Great. Great job guys. Great job. What a way to finish it. What a way to celebrate my birthday.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 02:18 – Nick recaps last week’s record, admits errors
• 04:42 – Discussion of “no bet” teams and side bet banter
• 12:36–17:05 – Rapid-fire run-through of games avoided and why
• 17:05–22:56 – Full breakdown of Nick’s picks with analysis
• 28:00–33:16 – Teasers, props, and offer segments
• 32:06 – Offer bet of the week

Episode Tone and Style

Nick and his co-host maintain a mix of humor, seriousness, and transparency. Nick owns up to mistakes, debates logic with his co-host, and demystifies betting for listeners. The tone is candid, slightly self-deprecating at times, and always focused on helping the audience make smarter picks or at least be entertained by the process.

For New Listeners

This episode is a classic example of Nick Wright’s sharp, value-centric betting approach and willingness to reevaluate teams and trends week to week. You’ll find strong rationales behind every pick, skepticism of too-good-to-be-true lines, and plenty of personality—a must-listen for NFL fans who bet or just love hearing the logic behind sports predictions.