The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "What's Wright – NFL Week 6 Predictions"

Guest: Chad Millman
Co-host: Damanze
Date: October 10, 2025
Episode Theme: In this episode, the focus is squarely on NFL Week 6 betting predictions. Chad Millman, with Damanze, breaks down which games to target, which to avoid, and details his five favorite betting picks for the week. The episode also features a fan-favorite teaser segment and touchdown prop bets, all delivered in Chad’s candid, self-critical style.

Episode Overview

Chad Millman, joined by co-host Damanze, delivers a transparent and analytical rundown of Week 6 NFL betting action, seeking to rebound from a rough October and subpar season record. This week's betting philosophy: trust in quarterbacks and teams with a clear edge at the most important position rather than over-analyzing trends or injuries. The duo eschews traditional rules to shake off past losses, compares notes on "stay away" games, and cap off with prop bets and the “can’t lose teaser” pick.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Betting Recap & Philosophy Shift

Timestamp: 02:25–06:30

• Chad describes his recent slump, citing an 11-14 record on the season and a string of unlucky and bad picks.
  • “I'm now 11 and 14 on the year which is pathetic. It means I need a 4 in one week to get to 505 and oh to get above 500. ... But we rebound, we move forward and we'll get to that.” (Chad Millman, 03:35)
• Announces a shift in strategy: betting strictly on teams with quarterbacks he inherently trusts, regardless of conventional handicapping wisdom.
  • “If I'm going to try to write my gambling ship, it's going to be on the right arms of quarterbacks I believe in...” (Chad Millman, 09:30)

2. "Stay Away" Games

Timestamp: 06:30–15:14
Chad and Damanze analyze several matchups they refuse to bet due to line volatility, injuries, or unpredictable variables.

• Denver vs. Jets (London)
  • Lean Jets +7.5 but wary from previous experiences with Denver.
  • “If I were to bet, I would be taking the Jets plus the points.” (Chad Millman, 07:00)
• Chargers at Miami
  • Chargers are unreliable to cover -4, Dolphins may be ‘dead team walking’ without Tyreek Hill.
  • “Four is just too many. ... Miami could just roll over at any point.” (Chad Millman, 08:10)
• New England at New Orleans
  • Cautious of Patriots letdown after big win; not enough faith in Saints QB to back them, even with +3.5.
• Arizona at Indy
  • Can't trust either side after Arizona's meltdown and Indy's year-long inconsistency.
• Rams at Baltimore
  • Rams -7.5 was tempting, but West-to-East travel, Baltimore’s desperation, and unknowns at QB (Lamar injury) create risk.
• Seattle at Jacksonville & miscellaneous others:
  • Lines viewed as fair; little to no perceived edge.

3. Chad's Five Favorite Picks for Week 6

Timestamp: 19:51–27:15

Chad pivots mid-show, dropping Pittsburgh -5.5 for the Rams -7.5 after debating the merits of betting against his usual rules. “I'm only going with quarterbacks I trust” becomes the week’s doctrine.

The Picks:

1. Rams -7.5 at Baltimore
   • “The Rams need it. They are the team on extra rest. I trust Stafford. The Ravens are a mess. Lamar is not playing.” (Chad Millman, 21:09)
2. Cowboys -3 at Carolina
   • “I'm going against some of my general gambling rules because I believe Dak has been awesome. The Panthers are just totally inept for entire quarters or halves at a time.” (Chad Millman, 21:55)
   • Noting Dak Prescott's dominance vs. sub-.500 teams: “He's 33, 18 and 2 against the spread in his career against teams under .500.” (Chad Millman, 22:07)
3. Buccaneers -3 vs. 49ers
   • “I don't think the Niners have the secondary to deal with Tampa's receivers. ... I'll lay the three points. I believe in the Bucs.” (Chad Millman, 22:49)
4. Kansas City -2 vs. Detroit
   • “The Lions top two corners are out for this game. ... I believe the entire general public is going to be all over Detroit and I think there are going to be a lot of get even on the day by betting on Detroit on Sunday Night Football. And I think the Chiefs just find a way.” (Chad Millman, 23:41)
   • “I may or may not have bet Dan LeBatard $5,000 straight up in this game...” (Chad Millman, 25:42)
5. Chicago +4 at Washington
   • “Chicago off a buy. This is the most important game of Caleb's career up to this point...I believe that they can win. And if they don't win ... they certainly can keep it within a field goal.” (Chad Millman, 26:32)

Philosophical Note:
Chad recognizes some picks are "square," especially the Rams, Cowboys, and potentially Tampa. “I do not care. I have to stop overthinking this. ... This is how I'm doing it.” (Chad Millman, 27:07)

4. Damanze's "Can't Lose Teaser"

Timestamp: 32:01–34:34

• This Week's Teaser: Three-team, 8-point, +100
  • Seattle up to +9 at Jacksonville
  • Chicago up to +12 at Washington
  • Detroit up to +10 at Kansas City
• Reasoning focuses on key numbers and underdog resilience: “It's three games. That is very Difficult to see any of those teams ... getting blown out.” (Chad Millman, 33:53)
• Chad’s grade: “This is an A plus. ... I love it. I think that's a great one, pal.” (Chad Millman, 33:52–34:08)

5. Prop Bets and Longshots

Timestamp: 34:38–35:58

• Touchdown Genie:
  • Chad’s pick: Xavier Worthy at +125, leveraging injuries to Detroit’s secondary.
• NFL passing overs parlay:
  • Stafford over 260.5 yards & Jordan Love over 239.5 yards (+250). Chad passes: “I have to turn this one down.”
  • Alternate accepted: Micah Parsons & Rashan Gary both over 0.5 sacks (+210). “That offer is locked in.” (Chad Millman, 35:58)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I'm only going to go with quarterbacks I trust. ... I'm doing something that I should not do.” (Chad Millman, 20:22)
• “I'm telling you right now on Chad Millman Sharp versus Square. I am undoubtedly on the square side of Rams, Cowboys and maybe Tampa. I do not care.” (Chad Millman, 27:07)
• “I may or may not have bet Dan LeBatard $5,000 straight up in this game...” (Chad Millman, 25:42)
• “This is an A plus. ... I love it. I think that's a great one, pal.” (Chad Millman, 33:52–34:08, on Damanze’s teaser)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:25 – Chad's week-in-review, confession of losing record and pivot in approach.
• 06:30–15:14 – Stay-away games analysis.
• 19:51 – Shift to quarterbacks Chad trusts; “philosophy change” intro.
• 21:09–27:15 – Breakdown of each pick and rationale.
• 32:01 – Damanze’s "A-plus" teaser revealed.
• 34:38 – Touchdown prop and parlay segment.
• 35:47 – Sacks parlay lock of the week.

Conclusion

This episode blends sharp betting wisdom with relatable moments of “square” gambler frustration and mid-show pivots. Chad’s willingness to own mistakes, change tactics, and stick with the quarterbacks he trusts gives listeners both strategic insight and a transparent, no-nonsense view of sports betting realities.

Whether you’re seeking actionable picks or a dose of betting candor, this Week 6 breakdown covers all the NFL action worth your money—with clear logic and memorable lines throughout.