The Herd with Colin Cowherd

"What's Wright - NFL Week 7 Predictions"

Host: Nick Wright
Date: October 18, 2025
Co-host: Damanze
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

In this episode, Nick Wright delivers his signature NFL Week 7 betting picks and leans, providing analysis on some of the week’s most intriguing games. Riding high after a strong Week 6, Nick brings a mix of bold takes and classic betting wisdom, focusing often on tough matchups, underperforming teams, and why sometimes “grimy” games yield the best odds. The episode’s theme is betting value—particularly in “bad teams”—and strategic, data-driven gambling in a volatile NFL landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on Week 6 & Betting Philosophy

Timestamp: 02:34–05:48

• Nick recaps his recent picks, feeling vindicated after a 4-1 week and reaching .500 on the season.
• Emphasizes historical performance: “Year over year over year, the most consistent against the spread free publicly available weekly gambling show for the NFL there is.”
• Reveals the week’s strategy: returning to betting on undervalued, “bad” teams instead of chasing favorites.

Notable Quote:

• “Now that we have our footing… we are going back to what has made this show, year over year… consistent against the spread… We’re going to continue that this year with some picks that, I’ll be honest, are going to be hard to stomach. We’re betting on some bad teams.” (04:31)

2. Games to Avoid: Leans & Quick Analysis

Timestamp: 11:30–19:42
Nick and Damanze discuss several games Nick recommends staying away from, offering leans and sharp reasons for passing.

• Rams vs. Jacksonville (London):

  • Rams have travel disadvantage & Puka Nacua’s status uncertain. Lean Rams, but passing.

• Miami at Cleveland:

  • Bad “vibes” around Miami’s locker room; quarterbacks not inspiring either. (12:30–13:23)
  • “Bad vibes with a one win team on one side... worst current starter on the other.” (12:52)

• New Orleans at Chicago:

  • Not ready to lay >2.5 points with Bears; New Orleans is dangerous despite only one win.

• Philly at Minnesota:

  • “Feels like a trap... They are begging you, daring you to bet Philly.” (14:47–15:17)

• Vegas at Kansas City:

  • 12 points is “too many,” Chiefs history of not covering big divisional spreads, but Raiders are untrustworthy for a bet. (15:35–16:29)

• Indy at Chargers:

  • Likes the value on Indy, but Chargers’ defense gives enough pause to stay away.

• Washington at Dallas, Green Bay at Arizona, Tampa Bay at Detroit:

  • Nick goes through detailed reasons why the lines are off or why there is too much unknown—generally injury or motivation related.

Notable Quote:

• “I’ve watched the Chiefs last few years not cover these double digit spreads. But I’m not betting on the Raiders.” (16:16)

3. Primary Picks: Value on Ugly Matchups

Timestamp: 19:42–27:06

This is the heart of the episode. Nick returns to his strategy of finding betting value on underdogs and lower-profile quarterbacks.

a. Tennessee (+7) vs. New England

• Fired coach “bounce” potential.
• Patriots may be overvalued off recent wins, this is a classic letdown spot.
• “Fired coach bounce… New England’s third straight game on the road… too many points. I love seven and a half, I’ll take seven.” (20:15)
• “Sneaky upset alert for the Patriots but I think the Titans keep it close.”

b. Jets (+1.5) vs. Carolina

• Backs the statistically abysmal Jets mainly due to market movement.
• “This is a pure ‘the bad gamblers will get the bad number on this and lose.’” (22:21)
• “If you’re a Jets fan. If you don’t win this week, when are you going to win?” (23:33)

c. Giants (+7) at Denver

• Giants on extra rest, Denver looks rough following London travel.
• “Sneaky upset alert… Giants can win this game outright… Too many points.” (24:15)

d. Atlanta (+2) at San Francisco

• Notes Niners’ rare absence of Bosa and Fred Warner—huge defensive impact.
• “I think the Niners are about to have one of the worst defenses in football, because it’s going to take them time to adjust.” (25:48)
• “The wrong team is favored.”

e. Seattle (-3) vs. Houston

• Lays points only on Seattle, citing that Houston’s recent performance is misleading.
• “Seattle is a little underrated… Houston, I still don’t trust their offense.” (27:06)

Recap of Picks:

• Tennessee +7
• Jets +1.5
• Giants +7
• Atlanta +2
• Seattle -3

4. Damanze’s Teaser & Prop Bets

Timestamp: 32:15–36:35

Three-Team, 8-Point Teaser:

• Tennessee +15
• Indy +10
• Giants +15
• Both hosts are bullish.
• “You’ve been crushing. All right, go ahead.” (33:50)

Touchdown Genie (TDG) Conversation:

• Nick passes on a specific anytime touchdown pick this week—cites lack of value.
• “I’m just staying away this week…” (34:49)

Prop Bet: Bijan Robinson

• Suggests Bijan over 129.5 combined rushing & receiving yards (+105).
• “Bijan over 129.5 rushing and receiving… that feels right.” (36:21)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If it were as simple as just ‘bet on the great quarterbacks,’ everybody would make money.” (27:53)
• On the Jets game line movement: “I can’t explain it, I don’t know why, but this is going to be a one-point game...” (22:32)
• New England/Tennessee game: “Teams who fire their coach cover… it’s one of the reasons coach gets fired, to…cover basically half the time.” (20:15)
• “The wrong team is favored… I love Atlanta in this spot.” (26:07)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:34 — Week 6 recap and ethos of the show
• 11:30 — Games Nick won’t bet and analysis
• 19:42 — Preface of “betting on bad QBs” and start of weekly picks
• 20:09 — Tennessee (+7) over New England analysis
• 21:41 — Jets (+1.5) vs. Carolina: The “bad gamblers” scenario
• 24:15 — Giants (+7) at Denver preview
• 25:48 — Atlanta (+2) at San Francisco breakdown
• 27:06 — Seattle (-3) vs. Houston as lone favorite
• 32:15 — Damanze’s teaser strategy
• 34:22-36:35 — Prop bet strategy, TD Genie choices, and Bijan Robinson pick

Tone and Style

Nick Wright’s analysis is sharp, conversational, and packed with both statistical reasoning and betting psychology. The banter with Damanze is loose, playful, and self-deprecating, particularly regarding betting on “bad teams” and the chaos of the NFL. There are several moments where Nick admits to gut feelings or superstitions, especially with volatile game lines or “trap” situations.

Summary Table: Nick’s Week 7 Picks

| Matchup | Pick | Reasoning Summary | |-------------------------|---------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | Tennessee vs. New England | Tennessee +7 | Fired coach bounce, Patriots overvalued | | Jets vs. Carolina | Jets +1.5 | Market movement mispricing, betting psychology | | Giants at Denver | Giants +7 | Extra rest, Denver’s travel disadvantage | | Atlanta at San Francisco | Atlanta +2 | Niners missing key defenders, upset potential | | Seattle vs. Houston | Seattle -3 | Seattle underrated, Houston offense not trusted |

Closing

Nick reiterates responsible gambling and recaps his “hard-to-stomach” (but historically profitable) picks for the week, emphasizing that true value often lies in underappreciated teams. The episode ends with prop bet predictions, a discussion of teasers, and a nod to the audience to bet responsibly.