The Herd with Colin Cowherd – “What’s Wright” NFL Week 9 Predictions with Nick Wright

Episode Date: October 31, 2025
Main Focus: Week 9 NFL predictions and betting picks with Nick Wright, including breakdowns of Chiefs-Bills, Colts-Steelers, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, and others.

Episode Overview

This episode is the Week 9 Midway Point Gambling Show on “What’s Wright”, a segment of The Herd with Colin Cowherd. Host Nick Wright (joined by Damanze) delivers his analysis on this week’s NFL betting slate, giving out top five picks, discussing why he’s staying away from certain games, and sharing his approach to teasers and player props. Nick is candid about recent struggles in his picks, but remains optimistic, emphasizing the importance of getting hot at the right time in the season.

Tone: Opinionated, candid, analytical, and conversational.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Nick’s Reflections on Recent Gambling Picks

• Gambling Record Recap [02:18–03:40]
  • Nick is just below .500, with recent losses being particularly bad (“the losses were grizzly”). Regardless, he notes that a half-point win counts as much as a 30-point cover.
  • “Getting, you know, being blown out by 30 is the same as, you know, getting absolutely screwed on a back door cover. But last week the losses were grizzly.” – Nick Wright [02:33]
• General Approach: Stresses sticking to the process and continuing to look for the right opportunities.

Week 9 NFL Betting Slate – “Stay Away” Games

Nick walks through several matchups he’s not betting this week, often explaining his reasoning in detail.

Notable “Stay Away” Matchups

| Game | Reasoning |
| ---- | --------- |
| Denver at Houston [10:12] | Broncos have been surprising; Nick likes Houston but isn’t confident enough to bet. “I've been wrong enough on the Broncos that I'm go… I'm either this week going to bet on them or stay away, and I'm staying away.” [10:33]| | Carolina at Green Bay [11:18] | 13.5-point spread too large to trust either side.
| Chicago at Cincinnati [11:54] | Flacco's 50-50 status makes the game too unpredictable.
| Atlanta at New England [12:41] | Patriots are hot, but Atlanta is inconsistent; no clear edge.
| Chargers at Tennessee [13:42] | Titans' problems make the Chargers tempting, but 8.5-point spread is too much.
| New Orleans at Rams [14:23] | 14-point spread is high, and too many unknowns with the Rams’ QB.
| Jaguars at Raiders [15:45] | Raiders might be demoralized post-bye. “But it also might have been, you know, let's pack it up, fellas.” [15:51]
| Arizona at Dallas [16:45] | Dallas is at home, but Kyler Murray’s history in Texas and Dallas’ defensive lapses make this unpredictable.

Memorable Insight:

• “Kyler is 8-0 in his life in Texas Stadium… That’s his favorite place to play. And that Dallas defense has been so bad…” – Nick Wright [16:54]

Nick’s Five Favorite Picks for Week 9

Nick trims down from eight favorites to these five bets, backing up each with stats, trends, and intuition.

1. Detroit Lions -8.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings [17:48]

• Reasoning:
  • Goff is 8-0 against the spread vs. Minnesota as a Lion.
  • Extended rest gives Detroit an edge.
  • “The Lions love pouring it on. The Lions love annihilating teams. And so I, I don't mind laying the eight and a half points. I love the Lions in this spot. Maybe my favorite play of the week.” – Nick Wright [18:21]

2. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts [18:41]

• Reasoning:
  • Tomlin’s dominant record as a home underdog.
  • Detailed ATS (against-the-spread) stats: 25-15 as an underdog off an outright loss, 12-4 as a home dog off a straight-up loss.
  • “There is just all of Tomlin's history says if you're giving him at least three points at home he doesn't lose. He covers.” – Nick Wright [19:19]

3. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. New York Giants [20:34]

• Reasoning:
  • Giants are reeling from injuries and locker room issues.
  • “I think the Giants are floundering… I don’t really think it matters which Niners quarterback plays. I'll lay the two and a half.” – Nick Wright [20:38]

4. Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 at Buffalo Bills [21:25]

• Reasoning:
  • Chiefs are the best team, Nick says he doesn’t care about public perception or Mahomes’ prior ATS struggles as a favorite.
  • “I just think the Chiefs are the best team in the league, and I'm laying less than a field goal.” – Nick Wright [21:30]

5. Seattle Seahawks -3 at Washington Commanders [22:06]

• Reasoning:
  • Seattle’s strong record on east coast games.
  • Washington’s injuries and poor defense.
  • “Seattle’s one of the only teams that going west coast to east actually helps them as far as covering… I think Seattle's really good. I think Washington is bad and injured.” – Nick Wright [22:09]

Damanze’s Teaser of the Week [27:54]

Teaser Details:

Three-team, eight-point teaser at +100:

• Detroit Lions “basically a pick'em at .5” (vs Vikings)
• Chargers at “-0.5 against the Titans”
• Kansas City up to +6.5 at Buffalo

Rationale:

• “Chargers are going to beat the Titans and the Lions are going to beat the Vikings and the Chiefs don’t get blown out.” – Damanze [28:09]
• Nick rates this teaser an “A”.

Any Time Touchdown Prop [29:12]

• Pick: Josh Allen (Bills) to score a rushing touchdown vs. Chiefs, at even money (+100).
  • “Chiefs-Bills. I am going to go Josh Allen—yeah. Touchdown, Josh Allen, anytime touchdown.” – Nick Wright [29:30]
  • “He'll probably have to have the cape on that day... They get it down to the one, they like the tush push. So yeah.” – Nick Wright [30:15]

Betting Strategy Nuggets

• Stresses value in transparent track records, not overreacting to one week, and not forcing action on unappealing games.
• Offers tactical advice: if you want to bet a specific outcome (like a 4-3 World Series result), sometimes parlaying individual moneylines will yield better odds than a specific series bet. [30:48]
  • “I just don't want to give the audience bad gambling advice... I think you can get better than +240 [betting sequential moneylines].” – Nick Wright [31:02]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ugly gambling weeks:

  • “Just need to get hot at the right time, as they say. Last week though, the losses were grizzly.” – Nick Wright [02:22]

• On the unpredictability of the Broncos:

  • “I've been wrong enough on the Broncos... I was either this week going to bet on them or stay away, and I’m staying away.” – Nick Wright [10:33]

• On favorite play of the week:

  • “Maybe my favorite play of the week. It’s the first one. Detroit minus eight and a half.” – Nick Wright [18:21]

• On Tomlin as a dog:

  • “Tomlin's history says if you're giving him at least three points at home he doesn't lose. He covers.” – Nick Wright [19:19]

• On the Chiefs at Buffalo:

  • “I just think the Chiefs are the best team in the league, and I'm laying less than a field goal.” – Nick Wright [21:30]

• On Josh Allen anytime TD:

  • “Chiefs-Bills. I am going to go Josh Allen—yeah. Touchdown, Josh Allen, anytime touchdown.” – Nick Wright [29:30]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:18] – Gambling show intro, Nick’s record and reflections
• [10:12–16:45] – “Stay Away” games: Denver/Houston, Carolina/Green Bay, Chicago/Cincinnati, Atlanta/New England, Chargers/Titans, Saints/Rams, Jaguars/Raiders, Cardinals/Cowboys
• [17:48] – Pick #1: Detroit -8.5 vs Minnesota
• [18:41] – Pick #2: Pittsburgh +3 vs Indianapolis
• [20:34] – Pick #3: San Francisco -2.5 vs Giants
• [21:25] – Pick #4: Kansas City -1.5 at Buffalo
• [22:06] – Pick #5: Seattle -3 at Washington
• [27:54] – Damanze’s “By Any Means Necessary” three-team teaser
• [29:12] – Nick and Damanze’s “Can’t Lose Player Touchdown Prop”
• [30:48] – Sports betting strategy (World Series “offer” discussion)

Summary Table of Picks

| Pick # | Game | Side | Rationale | |--------|------|------|-----------| | 1 | Lions vs Vikings | Lions -8.5 | Goff’s ATS record, Lions’ form, extended rest | | 2 | Steelers vs Colts | Steelers +3 | Tomlin’s home dog stats, ATS history | | 3 | 49ers vs Giants | 49ers -2.5 | Giants’ injuries, drama, cross-country travel | | 4 | Chiefs at Bills | Chiefs -1.5 | KC best team, short spread, Mahomes | | 5 | Seahawks at Commanders | Seahawks -3 | Seattle’s east coast form, Washington injuries |

Teaser: Lions (-0.5), Chargers (-0.5), Chiefs (+6.5)
Player Prop: Josh Allen anytime TD (+100)

Final Notes

• Nick and Damanze emphasize the importance of selectivity in betting—avoiding ugly or unclear match-ups, capitalizing on historic trends and injuries, and not chasing action.
• Humor and candor throughout (“We give you mediocre picks for a half hour and then I give you a can't lose player touchdown prop.” – Nick Wright [29:04])

Overall:
This Week 9 gambling show is full of actionable insights, historical betting trends, player prop gems, and a realistic assessment of the unpredictable nature of NFL betting at the season’s midpoint.