Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: What's Wright - Nick Wright PREDICTS AFC: Mahomes & Chiefs WILL BE BACK, Bills & Ravens OVER win totals | NFL
Date: March 20, 2026
Host: Nick Wright (with Damanze)
Presented by: Boost Mobile, Hard Rock Bet

Episode Overview

This episode of "What's Wright with Nick Wright" is a deep dive into the projected win totals for every AFC NFL team for the 2026 season. Nick and his co-host Damanze go division by division, evaluating the early “over/under” lines provided by Hard Rock Bet. The primary theme is analyzing which teams are correctly assessed by oddsmakers, which are overrated, and which are underrated—peppering in discussion about schedules, quarterback situations, organizational direction, and division strengths.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Thoughts: NFL’s Event Power (02:16)

• Nick stresses that football’s supremacy in U.S. sports is due to its games feeling like standalone events, contrasting with other leagues like the NBA. He draws analogies to recent sports events (e.g., World Baseball Classic) that drew exceptional ratings because they felt significant.
  • Quote:

    “If something feels like an event and feels big, it can still grab people's attention and everything else kind of gets lost to the noise.”—Nick (02:35)

• This event-based appeal is what keeps NFL discussions relevant even in March.

AFC East Predictions (05:40)

Buffalo Bills - 10.5 Wins (Minus 140 to the over)

• Nick breaks down their brutal schedule: AFC West, NFC North, plus strong “2nd place” matchups (Ravens, Texans, Rams).
• Despite adversity:
  • Prediction: Over is the play.
    • Bills have a history of consistent winning with Josh Allen (usually 11+ wins).
    • Divisional dominance (likely 5-1) compensates for tough out-of-division games.
  • Quote:

    “They win 11 games every year with Josh Allen. This is a touch too low.” —Nick (08:36)

  • Segment: 07:42–08:56

Miami Dolphins - 4.5 Wins

• Prediction: This is too high, suggesting Miami will be the worst team in the league.
  • Quote:

    “They are going to be the worst team in the league by a lot. I'd be on 0-17 watch for the Miami Dolphins.” —Nick (09:21)

  • Segment: 09:03–09:44

New England Patriots - 9.5 Wins

• Prediction: Too high. Believes they regress to earth after a historically easy schedule last year.
  • Projects around 9 wins, but sees 8 as more likely than 11.
  • Segment: 09:56–10:30

New York Jets - 5.5 Wins

• Prediction: Line is “just right,” but leans slightly over due to several weak opponents.
  • If they can go 4-2 against bottom teams, 6 wins is plausible.
  • Quote:

    “They are also one of the worst teams in football, but you have that. If they can somehow just win... I could see them getting to the over.” —Nick (10:30)

  • Segment: 10:30–11:58

Division Winner Pick:

• Loves Buffalo at -145 for the AFC East title.

AFC North Predictions (16:15)

Baltimore Ravens - 10.5 Wins (Minus 145 to the over)

• Prediction: Number is “just right,” would pick over if forced.
  • Soft division, plus favorable schedule (NFC South, AFC South, second place games).
  • Some offseason losses and lack of weapons concern, but expects Lamar to thrive post-contract.
  • Quote:

    “Lamar, historically fresh off a contract, dominates.” —Nick (19:43)

  • Segment: 16:24–19:56

Cincinnati Bengals - 9.5 Wins

• Prediction: Just right.
  • Same flaws as always (great offense, shaky O-line, bad defense). Range of 8-11 wins.
  • Segment: 20:06–21:12

Cleveland Browns - 6.5 Wins

• Prediction: Just right, but “potentially frisky.”
  • Super easy "strength of schedule" games (Raiders, Jets, Giants). Defense and draft picks intrigue him, but not enough confidence to go over.
  • Segment: 21:12–22:43

Pittsburgh Steelers - 8.5 Wins

• Prediction: Under.
  • No Mike Tomlin and possible dysfunctional QB room spell decline.
  • Blasts their indecision about Aaron Rodgers and missing the chance at Kirk Cousins.
  • Quote:

    “The Steelers should grow a spine and just sign Kirk Cousins... but to me this is too high. I would go under on Pittsburgh.” —Nick (22:50)

  • Segment: 22:50–23:45

Division Winner Pick:

• Likes Baltimore at -140 for the AFC North.

AFC South Predictions (23:45)

Houston Texans - 9.5 Wins

• Prediction: Under.
  • Projects potential Stroud regression and warns sustained defensive dominance is unlikely.
  • Schedule isn't forgiving.
  • Segment: 23:53–24:56

Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 Wins

• Prediction: Too high.
  • Lack of belief in the Colts and skepticism about health at QB.
  • Segment: 25:10–25:41

Jacksonville Jaguars - 9.5 Wins

• Prediction: Too low, likes the over.
  • Believes in the roster and coaching, expects double-digit wins, top team in division.
  • Quote:

    “I believe in the Jags... I think they're a double-digit win team, the best team in that division.” —Nick (25:48)

  • Segment: 25:48–26:11

Tennessee Titans - 6.5 Wins

• Prediction: Just right.
  • Projects 6-7 wins, trust defense but offense in transition.
  • Segment: 26:18–27:29

Division Winner Pick:

• Likes value on Jacksonville at +175.

AFC West Predictions (27:29)

Denver Broncos - 9.5 Wins

• Prediction: Too low, take the over.
  • Favors Broncos continuity, likes the Waddle trade, and is impressed by Bo Nix’s playoff performance until injury.
  • Division’s non-divisional schedule isn't daunting for a first-place team.
  • Segment: 27:37–29:01

Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Wins

• Prediction: Over, calls line “too low.”
  • Easiest schedule draw in years; sees at least 11 wins as the floor for a Mahomes team outside of last year.
  • Quote:

    “They're still the Chiefs and winning 11 games was the absolute floor every single year prior to last year. That's too low.” —Nick (30:03)

  • Segment: 29:26–31:11

Las Vegas Raiders - 5.5 Wins

• Prediction: Just right, leans to the over but not confident.
  • Spent big in offseason, but rookie starting QB concerns.
  • Segment: 31:19–31:54

Los Angeles Chargers - 10.5 Wins

• Prediction: Strong under, line is way too high.
  • Brutal “strength of schedule” games; questions about Herbert’s playoff psyche and WR corps.
  • Quote:

    “This is a red hot under for me. This is way too... too high. I do not think the Chargers are going to be the team America thinks they're going to be next year.” —Nick (32:17)

  • Segment: 31:54–32:44

Division Winner Pick:

• Likes Chiefs at +165; his overall division winner picks are Chiefs (AFC West), Bills (AFC East), Ravens (AFC North), Jags (AFC South).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On NFL’s ongoing popularity:

  “Football is not only still king, but has a bigger lead on the other sports than ever before… they can make regular season games feel like an event.” —Nick (02:30)

• On Buffalo’s schedule:

  “That is a brutal… they drew tough divisions plus they get lucky with the division they’re in at least.” —Nick (07:27)

• On Miami’s woes:

  “They are going to be the worst team in the league by a lot… It’s too high.” —Nick (09:21)

• On doing boxing lessons:

  (Lighthearted digression about the virtues of boxing for cardio and co-host Daniel’s need for self-defense, 18:19–19:29)

• On Chiefs’ resilience:

  “The Chiefs are still the Chiefs and winning 11 games was the absolute floor every year prior to last year.” —Nick (30:03)

• On the Chargers:

  “This is a red hot under for me… I do not think the Chargers are going to be the team America thinks they're going to be.” —Nick (32:17)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro & NFL as Event TV: 02:16–05:05
• AFC East Breakdown: 05:40–12:00
• AFC North Breakdown: 16:15–23:45
• AFC South Breakdown: 23:45–27:29
• AFC West Breakdown: 27:29–33:37
• Division Winner Picks: 32:44–33:37

Episode Tone & Style Notes

• Nick Wright remains opinionated and analytical, with a blend of humor and directness.
• He emphasizes patterns (“historically, the Bills always win 11+,” “the Chiefs’ floor is 11 wins,” etc.).
• Willing to make bold predictions, especially about teams he thinks are drastically over- or under-valued.
• Frequent lighthearted exchanges with co-host Damanze (especially on tangents like boxing as off-field training).

Summary Table: Nick Wright’s AFC Win Total Picks

| Team | O/U | Nick’s Call | Key Logic | |---------------------|----------|-------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------| | Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | Over | Reliable winners, divisional dominance | | Miami Dolphins | 4.5 | Under | Predicts league’s worst; overwhelmed by schedule | | New England Pats | 9.5 | Under | Projects regression, schedule gets harder | | NY Jets | 5.5 | Just Right/Over | Weak opponents, potential to squeak over | | Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | Over/Just Right | Soft division, still trust Lamar | | Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | Just Right | Same team, no big upgrades | | Cleveland Browns | 6.5 | Just Right/Frisky | Easy schedule, rookie intrigue | | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | Under | No Tomlin, QB concerns, rough vibes | | Houston Texans | 9.5 | Under | Defensive drop-off, Stroud regression possible | | Indy Colts | 8.5 | Under | QB/roster skepticism | | Jacksonville Jags | 9.5 | Over | Coaching/growth, division’s best | | Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | Just Right | Transitional, modest defense trust | | Denver Broncos | 9.5 | Over | Continuity, favorable schedule for 1st place | | Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | Over | Mahomes factor, favorable schedule | | Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 | Just Right/Over | Spent big, rookie QB; minor lean over | | LA Chargers | 10.5 | Under | Brutal schedule, skepticism about Herbert’s support |

Final Thoughts

Nick’s overall prediction is a chalky one: he backs three divisional favorites (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs) and a value play on the Jags. He emphasizes the importance of context (schedules, recent history, offseason moves) and is clear about his skepticism for the Chargers and Dolphins, while doubling down on traditional powers like Kansas City and Buffalo.