What's Wright - Nick Wright’s 2025 NFL PREDICTIONS, win total OVERS/UNDERS + SLEEPER picks

Summary

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: What’s Wright – Nick Wright’s 2025 NFL PREDICTIONS, Win Total OVERS/UNDERS + SLEEPER Picks

Date: August 27, 2025
Host: Nick Wright
Producer/Sidekick: Devin

Episode Overview

This annual episode sees Nick Wright break down his 2025 NFL win total predictions and sleeper picks for every AFC team, diving into overs, unders, and the logic behind each call. The first half of the show features insights into Browns QB controversies, sports conspiracy discourse, and the Cowboys’ drama. Nick and Devin then launch into a division-by-division preview, revealing which teams they're backing, major bets, and the context behind each choice.

“This is one of my favorite shows of the year. It's our full... all 32 over/unders.” – Nick Wright [02:12]

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Opening Banter & Personal Updates

[02:08 – 09:12]

• Nick opens with stories from his European vacation (Switzerland, Italy, France, Monaco), noting his anonymity abroad, poker adventures, and meeting longtime viewers from Slovenia.
• He performs an unboxing of a personal invitation to "1587 Prime," a steakhouse by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in Kansas City, including a signed football from both players.
• Tone: Playful, rambling, off-the-cuff, fans will recognize Nick’s unfiltered delivery and comic asides.

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Lead-in to Main Content

[09:12 – 12:17]

NFL Quick Hits

• Shouts out to Terry McLaurin for a new contract (3 years, $96M) and Trey Hendrickson for a $14M bump:

  “Trey Hendrickson didn’t get an extension… but he did get… an extra $14 million. And he’s like, OK, deal!” – Nick Wright [09:23]

• Brief sidetrack into celebrity news: Justin Herbert dating singer Madison Beer, with both Nick and Devin comically unsure why she’s famous:

  “I have no idea who Madison Beer is. None.” – Nick Wright [10:41]

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Feature Topic: Browns QB Controversy & The Outrage Machine

[12:17 – 30:41]

Browns Quarterback Competition

[16:34 – 30:41]

• Shedeur Sanders’ poor final preseason cemented his position as Cleveland’s 3rd-string QB. Nick delivers a “sober analysis,” dispelling fan theories that Sanders was set up to fail.
• Detailed breakdown of QB politics: Head coach vs. owner preference, why practice and preseason performance are what matter, and why Shedeur’s struggles are not a conspiracy but “life in the NFL as a late round draft pick.”
• Nick’s wider commentary critiques sports discourse in the social media era, drawing a parallel to Flat Earth believers:

  “The Shador Sanders commentary to me is a case study in what is currently ailing so much of our discourse... either totally uninformed actors or outright bad actors… create engagement and controversy.” – Nick Wright [18:42]

• On conspiracy logic:

  “Most conspiracies fall apart at the first or second question. And you just asked the first question: Wait, why again? Explain it to me.” – Nick Wright [30:41]

Memorable Moment

• Nick’s “Flat Earth documentary” analogy: How people cling to priors even after direct proof they’re wrong [27:18 – 29:00].

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Quick Cowboys/Chiefs Segment

[38:06 – 44:26]

• Cowboys drama: Micah Parsons’ unsigned extension, Jerry Jones breaking negotiation protocol (“He’s not allowed to negotiate directly with Parsons. He knows that. He does not care.” – Nick Wright [38:45]).
• Chiefs’ “disrespected” narrative: Nick connects pundit talk about AFC contenders to their underlying respect for the Chiefs:

  “You all are claiming you think Buffalo or Baltimore are better, but then you’re also saying they might need to add the league’s best defensive player to get over the hump. What’s the hump? We’re talking about the Chiefs.” – Nick Wright [38:32]

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2025 AFC Win Total Preview

[44:26 – 81:46]

Intro to Gambling Segment

[44:26 – 48:05]

• Recap of past prediction records (Nick: 6-2 on official bets, 20-12 overall; Devin crushed preseason bets).
• Will give every pick, but only 10 are official "bets".

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Division-by-Division Predictions (AFC)

AFC EAST

[48:06 – 52:16]

• Bills (12.5): Slight under. “I feel like the Bills are a 12-5 team. I don’t think they’re getting to 13 wins.” – Nick Wright [48:14]
• Dolphins (7.5): Slight under. “Vibes... seem to be wretched.” – Nick [48:43]
• Patriots (8.5): Over. “I believe in Mike Vrabel... Drake May will be better than he was last year.” – Nick [50:12]
• Jets (6.5): Under. “All the reports out of Jets training camp are that offense is in real, real trouble.” – Nick [50:51]
• No official bets in the AFC East.

AFC NORTH

[52:17 – 59:00]

• Ravens (11.5): Over (lean). “You can’t pick a Ravens under... would shock me if this team goes 10-7.” – Nick [52:38]
• Bengals (9.5): Under (BET, -115). “I think the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year... Zach Taylor’s last year.” – Nick [54:36]
• Browns (4.5): Over (lean). “Four and a half wins? I’ve got to go over four and a half.” – Nick [57:24]
• Steelers (8.5): Under (lean). “I think that we have Mike Tomlin’s first losing season... at this point.” – Nick [59:00]

AFC SOUTH

[67:00 – 74:00]

• Texans (9.5): Slight over. “I like, don’t love, the quarterback. I really like the coach. I love the defense.” – Nick [67:30]
• Colts (7.5): Under (BET). “This is a bet that I love... I am taking the under on the Colts.” – Nick [69:44]
• Jags (7.5): Over (BET). “Oh my god. I love it. I love it so much. Better coach... real commitment this offseason.” – Nick [72:30]
• Titans (6.5): Slight under. “Feels like a 6-11 season would be a step in the right direction... still an under.” – Nick [73:58]

AFC WEST

[74:00 – 81:46]

• Broncos (9.5): Under (BET). “Everyone loves the Broncos this year but me. I am here saying: I expect a significant downswing.” – Nick [77:46]
• Chiefs (11.5): Over (BET). “Chiefs over. It is the right bet... Easy one. I expect 13-4 or better.” – Nick [78:41]
• Raiders (6.5): Over (BET). “I believe in the Raiders... think they can do better than seven wins.” – Nick [79:36]
• Chargers (9.5): Slight under. “I think they probably go 9-8 and just miss out on the playoffs.” – Nick [80:13]

AFC Official Bets (Recap)

• Bengals UNDER 9.5
• Colts UNDER 7.5
• Jags OVER 7.5
• Broncos UNDER 9.5
• Chiefs OVER 11.5
• Raiders OVER 6.5

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “This is a case study in what is currently ailing so much of our discourse... either totally uninformed actors or outright bad actors…” – Nick Wright [18:42]
• “Most conspiracies fall apart at the first or second question. And you just asked the first question: Wait, why again? Explain it to me.” – Nick Wright [30:41]
• On the AFC: “Through two divisions, I only have one bet. The bet is Bengals under nine and a half, but I am also skewing towards unders.” – Nick [59:33]
• On being the Chiefs: “Chiefs over. It is the right bet... Easy one. I expect 13-4 or better.” – Nick [78:41]
• On the show format: “In the least shocking news ever, we are only going to do the AFC today because we're not going to get through 32 teams in 30 minutes.” – Nick [59:37]

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Timestamps: Key Segments

• [02:08] – European trip stories, UFC invite unboxing
• [09:12] – Show transitions to football (contracts, quick news)
• [16:34] – Browns QB controversy: Shedeur Sanders analysis
• [18:42] – The problem with conspiracy-driven sports talk
• [30:41] – Nick debunks conspiratorial logic in NFL coverage
• [38:06] – Micah Parsons’ Dallas holdout/Jerry Jones drama
• [44:26] – Introducing gambling segment and picks approach
• [48:06] – AFC East win totals/lean breakdowns
• [52:17] – AFC North (bets begin)
• [67:00] – AFC South win totals and bets
• [74:00] – AFC West win totals and bets
• [78:41] – Chiefs over: Nick’s annual sure-bet
• [81:46] – Episode wrap, preview of Thursday’s NFC show

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Style & Tone

• Unfiltered, witty, sometimes meandering, with plenty of “inside joke” banter between Nick and Devin.
• Nick leans hard into self-awareness, often referencing past predictions, show format failures, and his own logic.

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Final Thoughts

This episode sets the stage for the 2025 NFL season, with Nick Wright applying his analytics-driven (and sometimes gut-feeling-based) approach to divisional win totals, while also ranting against the ills of sports controversy discourse and celebrating the cyclical fun of football gambling. Thursday’s follow-up will cover NFC picks and playoff/super bowl bets.

If you want Nick’s AFC bets for the season:

• Bengals UNDER 9.5
• Colts UNDER 7.5
• Jags OVER 7.5
• Broncos UNDER 9.5
• Chiefs OVER 11.5
• Raiders OVER 6.5

Quote to sum up the show:

“This is one of my favorite shows of the year… all 32 over/unders… We can’t have it be five hours long. So there’s a lot going on.” – Nick Wright [02:12]

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Transcript

[Nick Wright]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Buzz Knight]

Hi, I'm Buzz Knight, the host of the Taking a Walk podcast. And join me for an upcoming episode with Seth MacFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, talking about his new Frank Sinatra music project.

[Charlie Pinion]

Anyone who loves music would salivate over something like this. The biggest question for us was what's in these boxes? Really, the most thrilling part was hiring an orchestra and just playing what was in these boxes.

[Buzz Knight]

Listen to Taking a walk on the iHeartRadio app, Apple PODC or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama. Folks find it hard to hate up close. And when you get to know people and you're sitting in their kitchen tables and they're talking like we're talking, you know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up, and you get a chance for people to unpack and get beyond race. All the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.

[Manny and Noah]

Why are TSA rules so confusing?

[Nick Wright]

You got a hoodie on. Take it all.

[Manny and Noah]

I'm Manny. I'm Noah.

[Devin]

This is Devin.

[Manny and Noah]

And we're best friends and journalists with a new podcast called no such Thing where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? I can't expect what to do now if the rule was the same, go off on me. I deserve it.

[Nick Wright]

You know, lock him up.

[Manny and Noah]

Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

No Such Thing.

[Ken Jennings]

Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in I guess they would be conspiracy theorists. That's right.

[Charlie Pinion]

They gave you the answers and you still blew it.

[Ken Jennings]

The puzzler listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

Welcome in what's right with Nick Wright episode 359. This episode as always is brought to you by Boost Mobile. Back in the States after a great trip through Switzerland, Italy, Frank France and Monaco where a few random with my wife and my wife's grandparents who are travel with us in the summer it's great time the show demands a sad to report very very unpopular in Switzerland. The like the now nobody stopped you out there. I mean could not have been more anonymous like the you fit right in over the country as we Moved south in Europe a little more and more. And then by the time we got to Monaco, I had Eagles fans accosting me. Oh, and how about this real quick before we get to. By the way, this is one of my favorite shows of the year. This is the first half of our gambling gambling preview show. It's our full. We do all 32 over under. So we have a lot to do. We. You know, this show could be five hours long. We can't have be five hours long. So there's a lot going on to be clear, but. Oh, gosh. Oh, yeah. So I'm in because. Well, let me set the table further. I'm. I text my poker buddies because I'm in Monte Carlo and I know there's great poker in Monte Carlo, but you can't find it. Like, you've got to, like, be invited. I played in a card game in Switzerland. I played in a card game in Italy. I played in card games in France, elsewhere. But Monaco, I didn't know where to go. So one, that text did not lead me to a card game. It did lead me to end up challenging hellmuth to this $5,000 a person Survivor contest, which I then, you know, I'll be honest, if you saw that long video, a few cocktails in posted me and the Helm Youth Challenge, by the way, that's open to everybody. Splash Sports is. Is hosting it. Anybody can join it. But it's five grand a person. It's a lot of money that then the next morning, Damanze, I had a little, like. I don't know what the word is. Regret. I'm not sure. Fear. I was like, do I look like an elitist? I was like, I. I posted because it's like a $5,000 a person contest. So then I was like, I think I have to start a new contest. So. So now there's also a $25 a person contest that, that I'm going to be a part of. And so, like, you can follow me on Twitter, right When we did the. It's the same people at Splash Sports that we did the March Madness Survivor pool with, that I talked about. It's just, you know, it's, it's a version of run your pool, those different things. Except to me, they're the best hosting site. But so all. So all that is going on, I then go into the casino in Monte Carlo and these three guys start hitting each other and pointing at me, but they're clearly not American. And so I kind of give him a nod and they Come over. And this is what they say, Nick, we've been watching you for 10 years from Slovenia.

[Ken Jennings]

They were like you.

[Nick Wright]

They called out my Luca tweet about saying you should go number one in the draft years ago or whatever it is. So that. So that was really cool. So it was a great time. So that was a great trip. And then. And then we'll get to the actual news. But I'm going to do something to Monze that I am not really equipped to do here, which is an unboxing.

[Devin]

Oh, wow. Yeah.

[Nick Wright]

When I.

[Devin]

This will be interesting.

[Nick Wright]

Yeah. I don't know how to do it. I don't even know how to show my tattoo on camera. How am I going to unbox something? And it's big, and I'm not sure exactly how it's going to work, but when I got back to the house Sunday night, waiting at the doorstep was. It was wrapped, obviously. But hold on. Look at this. Was this. I don't know if you guys can see what that says, but that says 1587 prime. 15 is Patrick Mahomes. 87 is Travis Kelce.

[Devin]

Oh.

[Nick Wright]

And their steakhouse is opening very soon, so I'm going to open whatever they sent me.

[Devin]

What a cool name for the steakhouse. 1587.

[Nick Wright]

That's tough. 1587 prime. From the visionaries. Wow. At Noble 33 and Kansas City's own hometown heroes, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey. All right, well, I can't. There's a. There's a password on the bottom there, which I can't do. But now we're gonna try to unbox this thing. All right, let's see if I'm any good at this. I really should have gotten your mom involved with this. Yeah. Hold on. Oh, yeah, we also. Oh, oh, look at this. Hold on, hold on.

[Devin]

Oh.

[Nick Wright]

You got one official invitation. You're invited for a collaboration between NFL icons Patrick Mullen, Travis kelsey in partnership, Noble33, bringing a modern twist to an American steakhouse in Kansas City. I don't think I want to. Hold on. Let me look at this. Make sure that's the official invite. I'm going to set that there because I don't want anyone to. To pirate it. And then a certificate of authenticity. Oh, look at what. Hold on. Look at what's here. Sorry. Then we'll get to the real business at hand here. Oh, this is. I. Oh, no. See, I'm not good at this. But this is why we're a audio and visual medium, so you guys can laugh at me. But this Is pretty sick. Hold on.

[Devin]

Oh, holy cool.

[Nick Wright]

1587, prime official old school football.

[Devin]

Yeah, I was gonna say the ball.

[Nick Wright]

Signed by Patrick and Travis. Did I just break the case? Maybe. So there we go. So. Okay. All right, well, let's go ahead and set this down. Thank you.

[Devin]

That's awesome. That is three.

[Nick Wright]

License. I thought there was invited to the grand opening. A steak.

[Devin]

Oh, I thought there was gonna be a steak in there.

[Nick Wright]

Invited to the grand opening. Shout out. Patrick and Trav. That's really cool.

[Devin]

How far is that gonna be from you? Like, where you're at?

[Nick Wright]

Oh, wait, it's Kansas City.

[Devin]

Yeah. Never mind.

[Nick Wright]

Yeah, so, I mean, it's. It's not close.

[Devin]

A little far.

[Nick Wright]

I'll say. It's gonna. It's gonna be a. A. A flight. But you know what? For my guys, it's the least I can do. All right. On to the actual show.

[Devin]

That.

[Nick Wright]

How'd that unboxing go? Give me out of 10, six out of 10.

[Devin]

You could have done, like, a little bit more, like, flipping it up, like, a little bit higher. But for the most, we saw it all, and you needed to protect the. You needed to protect the envelope. So honestly, it's a.

[Nick Wright]

Exactly. Yeah. I mean, this. Okay. You upgraded me. Look at that. Certificate of authenticity. How cool. All right, time for the show that we are in the show, by the way. Like, subscribe, review, five stars, thumbs up, bells. All of that now straight to voicemail. Brought you by voice boost mobile. Terry McLaurin gets a real contract. Three years, $96 million. Trey Hendrickson gets a raise. This is difference here. Trey Hendrickson didn't get an extension. Didn't get extra years, guaranteed. He did get. You know, Trey Hendrickson was really mad. Tre Hendrickson felt disrespected. Trey Hendrickson wanted to get, you know, have the team appreciate what he had done for them. And they said, well, how about instead of all of that, we just give you an extra $14 million? And he's like, okay, deal. Like, you know. You know what? 14 million. We'll make it work. And then next year, we'll go through all of this all over again. Euro basket starts tomorrow. And this is where Damanze. I am going to reveal how uncool I am. Justin Herbert and Madison Beer are dating. And this is where I tell you I have no idea who Madison Beer is. None.

[Devin]

Yeah, I've heard of her a few times. I don't. I think she's probably an actor.

[Nick Wright]

But you know what? We're not there. I'm first of all, couldn't be more proud that you're as ignorant on this topic as me. I'm sure she's lovely. She is beautiful, obviously. I don't know why she's famous.

[Devin]

She's probably like, I don't know, teen community.

[Nick Wright]

I was gonna guess Tick tocker. Can any. Do any of our producers is singer? I could have looked it up. I know. It was big news.

[Devin]

She's a singer.

[Nick Wright]

Singer, songwriter. Oh, okay. All right, Sweet. Again, I am not trying to be the. The. The. I don't really have a take on.

[Devin]

The leg sleeve on your first.

[Nick Wright]

Well, he's a pro athlete. It's probably some type of recovery thing. Yeah, I mean, would I wear a leg sleeve? No, I'm not a pro athlete. Like, I'm not, but. And by the way, there's no shade thrown at Madison Beer there. And I. I just truly was unfamiliar with why she was famous, but she was suit. Like, super famous, evidently, because what she posted. Someone posted a paparazzi picture of her, right? And Herbert was, like, in the background. And. And Charger fans were like, I think that's Justin Herbert. And then they revealed the whole thing. All right, let's get to the show to Monze. Before we get to our all 32 team over unders, we have news on the Browns quarterback competition.

[Buzz Knight]

Hi, I'm Buzz Knight, the host of the Taking a Walk podcast. And join me for an upcoming episode with Seth MacFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, talking about his new Frank Sinatra music project.

[Charlie Pinion]

Anyone who loves music would salivate over something like this. The biggest question for us was, what's in these boxes? There were a few unplayed gems that we had been alerted to by Charlie Pinion of Sinatra Enterprises. So we knew that certain songs like Shadow of youf Smile, which actually is not on this record, it'll be on the next one.

[Buzz Knight]

Seth MacFarlane.

[Charlie Pinion]

Don Rickles went up to Frank Sinatra and he said, listen, I'm gonna be having dinner with this lovely woman, and I, you know, would you come over and say hi? And just so you know. Cause I feel like if she sees that I know you, it's gonna make me look really cool. And, you know, I might have a good night. During the middle of dinner, Frank walks over and says, don, hi, how are you? And Don goes, frank, please, I'm in the middle of dinner.

[Buzz Knight]

Seth MacFarlane on the taking a Walk podcast. Listen to Taking a walk on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Manny and Noah]

Imagine that you're on an airplane. And all of a sudden you hear this.

[Nick Wright]

Attention, passengers. The pilot is having an emergency, and we need someone, anyone to land this plane.

[Manny and Noah]

Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air. Air traffic control.

[Nick Wright]

And they're saying, like, okay, pull this.

[Manny and Noah]

Until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.

[Nick Wright]

I'm Noah.

[Devin]

This is Devin.

[Manny and Noah]

And on our new show, no such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.

[Nick Wright]

Those who lack expertise lack the expertise. They need to recognize that they lack expertise.

[Manny and Noah]

And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the run, right? I'm looking at this thing.

[Nick Wright]

See?

[Manny and Noah]

Listen to no such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[John Lithgow]

Hello, I'm John Lithgow.

[Nick Wright]

We choose to go to the moon.

[John Lithgow]

I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast, that's One small step for Man. It's about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of spirit.

[Nick Wright]

You're a great pilot, Buzz. As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.

[John Lithgow]

That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.

[Ken Jennings]

To depression, alcohol abuse, and suicide.

[John Lithgow]

We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.

[Nick Wright]

What do you say, Buzz? Another beer.

[John Lithgow]

And triumph over addiction.

[Ken Jennings]

Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.

[John Lithgow]

Good luck to you and become a true hero.

[Nick Wright]

Buzz and I will proceed into the.

[John Lithgow]

Lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself.

[Nick Wright]

Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.

[John Lithgow]

Starring me, John Lithgow.

[Nick Wright]

Can you put it through?

[John Lithgow]

Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

Columbia.

[Ken Jennings]

Hello, puzzlers. Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy. Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.

[Charlie Pinion]

I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.

[Ken Jennings]

That's right. Are there Jeopardy. Truthers? Are there people who say that it. It was rigged?

[Nick Wright]

Yeah. Ever since I was first on, people are like, they gave you the answers. Right. And then there's the other ones which are like, they gave you the answers.

[Charlie Pinion]

And you still blew it.

[Ken Jennings]

Don't miss Jeopardy. Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show Week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Devin]

Um, yeah, so Shadora's final preseason game was a little shaky. He threw for 14 total yards, took five sacks. And now Shador fans are coming out and saying that the team and Kevin Stefanski are conspiring against him. But also Kenny Pickett just got cut. So you know, the landscape might have.

[Nick Wright]

Changed up a little or Kenny Pickett traded to the Raiders traded.

[Devin]

So the landscape might have changed up over there a little bit. What's the situation looking like for Shador?

[Nick Wright]

All right, well listen, he's. He was. He started camp fourth string, he stayed fourth string, he's now third string because one of the strings is on the Raiders. And I'm going to give you the very sober analysis of this. Then we're going to talk bigger picture of it and then honestly, we are not going to talk about the Cleveland Browns and their quarterback situation again, God willing. For months Shidora could not afford the type of performance he had in the third preseason game. It is as simple as that. When you are a late round pick rookie, you can't have a disastrous performance. You can't. And he did. It was not the coach's fault. It was not the offensive line's fault. It was. He had a bad game flatly. And the reason it is extra concerning is those of us that were skeptical that he was ever truly a first round talent. We were worried that his bad games would look a lot like that, like trying to do a little too much with his legs, overestimating his escapability and taking those big deep long sacks. Shedeur needed to thread a perfect needle and he was by the way, early on in camp he needed to play well in practice. It looked like he was. He needed Dylan Gabriel to struggle in practice. He was. He needed to play well in the first preseason game. He did. He needed Gabriel to struggle in the first preseason game. Gabriel didn't even play. So all of that was going best case scenario for Shador to achieve what was the only realistic goal for him this offseason which was passed Dylan Gabriel in the depth chart. He was never going to be the brown starting quarterback in week one. It was always the Browns plan very clearly was one of the veterans is starting and then the kids are backing him up and all of it was going according to plan. She door then suffered a slight injury which made him not able to play at all in the second preseason game. Gabriel then after some really bad practices, played quite well in the second preseason game. Then in the third preseason game, Gabriel played quite well again and Shador had a disastrous performance. And that is now that as far as the quarterback competition goes, that is not conspiratorial, that is not unfair, that is not unjust. That is life in the NFL as a late round draft pick. That is what happened here. Also, Shador fans need to recognize there's not a team in the league he'd start for, not one. You're on the team with arguably the worst quarterback situation and he is fairly right now their third best option to be a starting quarterback. Okay, that is where we're at now. Is that a death knell for his career? No. Is do I think he has more potential than Gabriel because of size and pedigree? I do. But. But if I had to, from what we saw in those preseason games, if in week one Flaco goes out, you would have to be more comfortable putting Gabriel in. That is what it is. That's not ridiculous. That's not unfair. That's not a vast conspiracy. That is what it is. The reason I find this story interesting is the reason I find a lot of things interesting is be when they are symbolic for a greater problem or issue. And the Shador Sanders commentary to me is a case study in what has in what is currently ailing so much of our discourse surrounding sports and other things which is either totally uninformed actors or outright bad actors churning the outrage mill to create engagement and controversy that then the current actual media feels obligated to treat seriously because, well, it's what people are talking about. And then it becomes a valid real story. And so you have folks that absolutely know better saying things like Shedor was out there with the fifth string offensive line when such a thing does not exist. It's like, oh, if there's not that offensive lineman was 10th on the depth chart. Well, there's. Yeah, I get it. But there's five offensive linemen that play at a time. And so the there is the first of all, there is no such thing as a fifth string offensive line. You have people who know better saying, oh, color me shocked. Those offensive linemen on the field with Shador were cut shortly after the game. No shit, man. You're at a 90 man roster in your third preseason game. 37 of those guys aren't making the team. Guess who doesn't make the team? Guys playing at the end of the of third preseason games. And there is just, just a kernel of enough validity to the conspiracies because is it likely true that the head coach didn't actually want Shador and the owner told him to draft him? Yes, probably is true. Is it likely true that the head coach wanted Dylan Gabriel to win that competition because that's the quarterback he wanted and Shador is the quarterback the owner wanted? Yes, that is likely true. Does any of that mean Shedor was put, set up to fail, couldn't succeed? Nah man, throw the ball away. Don't retreat back 25 yards. Don't, don't make the types of mistakes that some of us were worried you would make. And it's not again, you're a fifth round pick. It's fine. But and because the owner wanted you on the team, you're likely going to get to play at some point this year because the owner said both rookies are going to need to play. So the way this probably goes is the Browns start the season, they're bad. Third of the way into the season they pull the plug on Flacco, they go to Dylan Gabriel, they're still quite bad. Gabriel as in my opinion, an overdrafted third round pick. He doesn't look like the guy. And five, six games later they give Shador a try and Shador is a slightly underdrafted but still not ready 5th round pick. He doesn't look like the guy. And next year the Browns use the pick they got from the Jags and their own pick to draft their actual quarterback. That's probably how this thing's going to go but it is the the folks out there promoting the idea league wide code red. The whole league was told don't draft him and then the Browns were told to draft him and then internal Browns code red only call the bad plays. Kevin and then also the same folks and I didn't understand the Tyler Huntley signing. I said that from the beginning. I didn't understand Tyler Huntley playing that two minute drill. But the folks saying Shador was set up to fail with that terrible offensive line are into the same folks saying and how dare you not put him in in the two minute drill. It's not that complicated guys. And this isn't fair to Shador. He did not do this to himself. Demons A but here is a reality of it. This entire conversation and media maelstrom is one of the reasons he fell in the draft because he's not a stud player and once and all and no other team is having to answer questions about their deep end quarterback competition and it's the only things to Fanski's had to deal with. So it's just. That is what it is. And the Raiders needed. Yeah. That he wasn't ready.

[Devin]

Why Gabriel was ahead of him. I don't think anybody should be calling for conspiracy like you. You saw.

[Nick Wright]

Well, that's. I mean, that's the thing and that's what's to me so disheartening is we saw the game and people still are like, nope, that does not jive with my priors. That does not jive with what I wanted to be true. And there is an element of. Have you ever watched the. This is a bridge too far. But I don't. I don't care. Have you ever watched the Flat Earth documentary? You should watch it. It's really a truly fascinating 90 minutes.

[Devin]

Okay.

[Nick Wright]

And these aren't bad people. And it is really interesting. But the culmination of the documentary is one of the group of Flat Earthers saying are spending a ton of money into getting the equipment. I'm going to get this little wrong. The optical equipment you would need to prove the that. All right, we're going to set up this pole and light here.

[Devin]

I've seen.

[Nick Wright]

We're going to set up another pole here. And if the earth was flat, the light will shine at this place. And if the earth was flat, the light or round. The light will shine at this place. And we're going to prove it. And they do it. And the light shows up where it would show up if the earth were round. And the reaction initially is, huh, let's try it again. Then they do it again. And it is a brief questioning, is the equipment broken? And then it immediately goes to, wow, the conspiracy is even bigger than we thought. They've somehow hacked lighting. And there is an element of that with some of the Shador stuff, which was in denial, right? It was. He's clearly better. He clearly should be the guy. He's clearly not getting the opportunities. They're clearly. If he and Gabriel were both playing and then they play a game. Gabriel looks good. Shador has a really, really tough performance. And instead of it being like, oh, okay, that's why he was ahead of him on the depth chart, it was, wow, these sons of bitches will go to no end to stop my guy. And it, it's. It's a little canary in the coal mine of some of the bigger issues we have right now with what is truth and what is not. And so I find it interesting. I do. I know that my favorite NFL podcast, Greg Rosenthal's NFL Daily Which I'll be on later this week. Actually, you know, they have done. They have tried to do a. They have done a really good job of like, not leading with the topic every day that, you know, the shows like, the TV shows like mine lead with the juiciest thing because they're like really giving you the news and information and stuff. And I respect that entirely. But there is a deeper element to some of the Shador stuff that I find fascinating. Just like there's a deeper element actually, to some of the mica stuff that I find fascinating. That's actually about Jerry Jones and power and things like that. But at the end of the day, Shador had a chance if he looked better anyways.

[Devin]

Like, why would they want to make him look bad? It would be in their best interest for Shador to look great by the end, even if they didn't plan on keeping him.

[Nick Wright]

Of course. Of course. Guys who want to keep their jobs want their quarterback. Want to put the best quarterback on the field. Yeah. I mean, there's most of the most conspiracies damanze fall apart at the first or second question. Most like. And you just asked the first question, which, which is the. Wait, why again? Explain it to me. Just like the. The. The Chiefs, the, you know, league rigged for the Chiefs conspiracy. It's like, hey, remind me again, who is the league? The 32 teams. So why again are the Chargers in on this? Like some. Explain that to me. So most of them fall apart instantly. But. But so listen, he had a chance to pass Gabriel. And if Gabriel. And the nicer way to frame it is Gabriel after that injury and watching Shador in preseason game one was under real pressure and Gabriel responded. And so shout out to him. All right, before we get to the Micah stuff. And then our over unders, the rivalries, the marching bands, the upsets, Saturdays just got way more fun. College football's back. Put your knowledge. Think you know the game. Put your college football knowledge to the test with DraftKings sportsbook and turn your picks into big payouts. From live betting during the game to rivalry week, odds boosts and so much more, DraftKings sportsbook has everything you need to stay in the action from kickoff to the final whistle. Whether you're betting on your go to team or. Or making moves mid game as momentum shifts, Saturdays are yours to own with DraftKings sportsbook for the first time in at least 40 years, if not longer, the number one team in the nation is an underdog in week one as number one Texas is a two and a half point dog at Ohio State this Saturday. Of course, lines and odds are subject to to change. Something special, you guys. This is the best one we've had yet. First timers right before football, new customers bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets instantly. Again, new customers bet 5 bucks, get $300 in bonus bets instantly. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code right. That's code right for new customers to get $300 in bonus bets instantly. When you bet just 5 bucks in partnership with DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY at 467-369 in Connecticut.

[Charlie Pinion]

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[Nick Wright]

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[Buzz Knight]

Hi, I'm Buzz Knight, the host of the Taking a Walk podcast. And join me for an upcoming episode with Seth McFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, talking about his new Frank Sinatra music project.

[Charlie Pinion]

Anyone who loves music would salivate over something like this. The biggest question for us was, what's in these boxes? There were a few unplayed gems that we had been alerted to by Charlie Pinon of Sinatra Enterprises. So we knew that certain songs like Shadow of your smile, which actually is not on this record, it'll be on the next one.

[Buzz Knight]

Seth McFarland, Don Rickles went up to.

[Charlie Pinion]

Frank Sinatra and he said, listen, I'm going to be having dinner with this lovely woman and I, you know, would you come over and say hi? And just so you know, because I feel like if she sees that I know you, it's going to make me look really cool. And, you know, I might have a good night. During the middle of dinner, Frank walks over and says, don, hi, how you are? And Don goes, frank, please, I'm in the middle of dinner.

[Buzz Knight]

Seth MacFarlane on the taking a Walk podcast. Listen to Taking a walk on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Manny and Noah]

Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.

[Nick Wright]

Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone, to land this plane.

[Manny and Noah]

Think you could do it. It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.

[Nick Wright]

And they're saying, like, okay, pull this until this.

[Manny and Noah]

Pull that, turn this. It's just I do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.

[Nick Wright]

I'm Noah.

[Devin]

This is Devin.

[Manny and Noah]

And on our new show, no such thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.

[Nick Wright]

Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.

[Manny and Noah]

And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway. I'm looking at this thing.

[Charlie Pinion]

See?

[Manny and Noah]

Listen to no such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[John Lithgow]

Hello, I'm John Lithgow.

[Buzz Knight]

We choose to go to the moon.

[John Lithgow]

I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast. It's One Small is about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.

[Buzz Knight]

You're a great pilot, Buzz.

[Nick Wright]

As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.

[John Lithgow]

That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.

[Ken Jennings]

To depression, alcohol abuse, and suicide.

[John Lithgow]

We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.

[Nick Wright]

What do you say, Buzz? Another beer.

[John Lithgow]

And triumph over addiction.

[Ken Jennings]

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[John Lithgow]

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Buzz and I will proceed into the.

[John Lithgow]

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[Nick Wright]

Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.

[John Lithgow]

Starring me, John Lithgow.

[Nick Wright]

Can you put it through?

[John Lithgow]

Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

Columbia.

[Ken Jennings]

Hello, puzzlers. Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land?

[Nick Wright]

Jeopardy.

[Ken Jennings]

Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.

[Charlie Pinion]

I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.

[Ken Jennings]

That's right. Are there Jeopardy Truthers? Are there people who say that it's. It was rigged?

[Nick Wright]

Yeah. Ever since I was first on, people are like, they give you the answers.

[Charlie Pinion]

Right?

[Nick Wright]

And then there's the other ones which are like, they give you the answers.

[Charlie Pinion]

And you still blew it.

[Ken Jennings]

Don't miss Jeopardy Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

All right, Damanze, let's do the Cowboys here again. A kind of bigger picture thing. And then we're going to get to our over unders.

[Devin]

Yeah. So things are getting spicy in Dallas. Not only has Mike Parsons not agreed on a new contract extension, but he was seen everything was sleeping on the 10 at the last preseason training table. On the training table. Um, so things are so bad in Dallas. You had them last and last place in your predictions week. You also somehow connected Micah's situation to the alleged Chiefs disrespect. Did you? Do you mind explaining both of those?

[Nick Wright]

Sure. I'll start with the Chiefs one real quick. And I'm so mad it took me this long. I had this like eureka moment because listen, I scroll Twitter, I see the other shows. I see and so many folks are, Chiefs are vulnerable. Chiefs are on the downturn. Ravens and Bills have gotten better. Chiefs have gotten worse. Like, you know, Chiefs are fairly, you know, still really good, but they're not the caliber of those other teams that take that. Those takes are, it's not straw man. Those takes are very common this offseason. But then I realized during the Micah conversation, so many of the people who are currently arguing the Ravens are the best team in the afc, the Bills are the best team in the afc. When the subject of who should trade for Micah Parsons comes up, you know what I haven't take, I haven't seen. Well, Kansas City better do it in order to bridge the gap between them and Baltimore. If they want to stop the best quarterback in football, Josh Allen, if they want to slow down the most dynamic dual threat we've ever seen in Lamar Jackson, the Chiefs need to go all in and trade for Micah Parsons. No one's had that take. You know what? Take you here every effing day. If I'm Baltimore or Buffalo, I get on the phone with Dallas right now. So finish the thought. Why? Who in that scenario where Baltimore or Buffalo are trading multiple first round picks and giving out a record setting contract to get a pass rushing edge defender, who is it that they're acquiring that to beat? Not of course the Chiefs, because those teams, they're already better. They've already, they've already, they've already ascended. I, I, I was watching and I'm like oh, you all told on yourselves. You all are claiming you think Buffalo or Baltimore are better, but then you're also saying they might need to add the league's best defensive player because they need to get over the hump. What's the hump? We're talking about. So that's how I connected to the chief situation. I'm 100% right. Everyone knows it. Now here's the Dallas thing and this is what I find fascinating and the reason I want to talk about it. Jerry Jones has broken the rules and nobody but Mike Florio seems to care. He is not allowed to negotiate directly with Micah Parsons. He not. He knows that he does not care and he not only did it, but his stance is it's a binding negotiation and it and he is fine with saying to the world at large, yeah, there's nothing more to negotiate. I negotiated it with him. And it is so brazen. Brazen, Brazen. And credit to Darrell Revis and I think Matt Schaub are the two people who have come out and said the NFLPA needs file a grievance. Of course they do. If a player has an agent, you are not allowed to negotiate with the player directly. And Jerry is now saying we negotiated, it's done. And if he doesn't agree to it, we have him under contract this year and can franchise have him in the next two years. So I think this has gotten far uglier than the Dax situation and I don't think it is going to be quite as simple as as oh the day before the season they resign him. Maybe they do. And Jerry just sacrificed having Mike at full strength for week one for months worth of headlines and maybe that's a good trade off for him. If I were a Cowboys fan, I'd be livid. All right, now we do need to get to the gambling show. But first a couple reminders. 1 like Rate subscribe review. The other one you can ask us questions in the doc. There's it is roster cut down day to Monze but there's no big roster news as of yet today. Yeah, man, his agent's gonna be so big. And 10 the U.S. open is going on. I am going tomorrow night. So we will have a tennis corner update fresh off a few honey deuces Thursday morning on the show. But before we get to our all 32 over unders, let me talk to you guys about my friends at Boost Mobile in you know what, I'm just calling it. This is the Boost Mobile studio. I don't even know if they paid for that. But you look around here, this is what's right live from the Boost Mobile studio. Send that over to them, Paul. They'll love it. They deserve it. They got the signage everywhere. We got this light up and running after a little delay. It's great. Ever sign up for a new phone plan, thinking, wow, great price. Few months later, surprise, your bill's higher. Boost mobile you made $25 a month. Forever Unlimited talk text data starting at just $25 a month. No price hikes, no contract. Forever Plus Boost Mobile is now a legit nationwide 5G network. They've invested billions building 5G towers across the country. Visit boost mobile.com or head to your local Boost store today and get unlimited talk, text and data for $25 a month. Forever 5G speeds not available in all areas. After 30 gigs, customers may experience lower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. All right, Damanze set us up on the gambling show and how we do.

[Devin]

It Favorite time of the year so it is time to break down the win totals for the 32 NFL teams. You're going to give your picks and we are going to tell us which teams you're attending to stay away. So last year you went six and two on your over unders and even though you didn't bet these, you went 12 and 7 on your stay aways it looks like.

[Nick Wright]

Are you trying to say on your on my on your lean stairways? I yeah, let me so overall last year I went 20 and 12 total. Okay, 20 and 12 overall I made eight actual bets. I was six and two on them. The the so the we're going to give you all 32 teams this year. There are 10 actual bets I'm making but I will give you the actual like you know, I will tell you which way I'm going on all 32 but I'm only making 10 actual bets. But last year if you just bet every single team that I said over under it would you would have had 20 wins, 12 losses and all. As always, all lines and odds courtesy of DraftKings. Lines and odds subject to change. So here's the deal and we'll go over the full recap of last year's gambling show on Thursday. Show demanze I forgot this. Absolutely crushed. In the preseason gambling show Demons, they made five bets and was plus nine units on the bets because they were all big plus odds. You crushed on those. Hopefully the I believe in you. The over unders are important that you incorporate the vig on it. You can't incorporate the vig on the record but on your bets you obviously can incorporate profit loss. We're going to do this division by division. I'm going to roll through them and and demons that you and I will Discuss them. I'm telling you right now in the AFC east there is not an over under that I am betting but we'll go through them and I'll tell you which one I'm leaning. So the Bills are being listed in most places as an over under of 11 and a half but there's been so much action on the over that it's minus 1.75vig at the 11 and a half. So the the the total for the bills that is truly their updated total is 12 and a half because the the vig on 12 and a half is plus 125 over minus 150 under that I feel like the bills are a 12 and 5 team. I don't think they're getting to 13 wins. I could see 11 and 6. I think that the so this would be to me at 12 and a half laying minus 1.50 a slight under Sean McDermott seems a little concerned about their defense to Monze but I Josh is too good and they have such an advantage of that division and owning it the way they do that it feels like their floor is 10 wins. I think they're a 12 and 5 team. I would go under just barely and any of these demonte that you have a big issue with or want to add to just do it. There's a bunch, yeah.

[Devin]

I definitely lean under on 12 and a half for the bills. I went through the schedule. I see some I wouldn't feel comfortable going over on 12 for the Bills.

[Nick Wright]

This year and so and the other thing is how good do we think the AFC east is going to be? And this is where it gets tricky. Dolphins total is seven and a half. They win win to a play and by the way the vig is Almost exactly even -105 -115 over under. The vibes with the Dolphins seem to be wretched right? They also win when to a place and they have a very good D line but Tyreek doesn't seem to want to be there. This feels like the perfect number. I am going to gosh darn it. This is why I'm not betting these. I'm going to buy the slightest of margins say under. I definitely can see them going 8 and 9 but I will say it's a 7 and 10 dolphins year and I will go slightly under. It would not shock me if the Dolphins start off hot and it looks like you know the Dolphins from a couple years ago but over the course of the season I just can't trust them and it seems like the team might Be souring on Mike McDaniel a bit, or at least not taking him as seriously. I'm a slight. Aren't.

[Devin]

Aren't those things kind of reversed though? Tyreek Hill wants to be there. And the team also isn't souring on McDaniel.

[Nick Wright]

No. Correct.

[Devin]

Oh, you were just saying in that case.

[Nick Wright]

Okay, yes. And so no, it could. I'm. That's why I'm saying I'm. I'm a little anxious about it. But I will go slight under. This one shocked me. Patriots over under eight and a half when that number came out. I thought it was way too high. The juice is even on both sides, minus 1 10. And yet despite that Demon, I'm going over.

[Devin]

Wow.

[Nick Wright]

I believe in Mike Vrabel. I. They get the Dolphins in Week 18 in New England. You love that. For them it'll be zero degrees. They get two games against the jets, who I'll get to in a moment. Drake May will be better than he was last year. I think The Patriots win nine or 10 games, can make the playoffs and I will go over on the New England Patriots.

[Devin]

Your schedule is bad.

[Nick Wright]

You meaning easy or hard? Easy.

[Devin]

Like the schedule.

[Nick Wright]

Yes.

[Devin]

Yeah.

[Nick Wright]

Yeah. I mean, that's a huge piece of it. A huge piece of it is who they ended up drawing schedule wise. Jets six and a half with heavy juice on the under. I still have to go under because all of the reports out of jets training camp Demons A are that that offense is in real, real trouble. I like Aaron Glenn. I think he's trying to build something. I think he'll build it in the mold of Dan Campbell in Detroit. But Dan Campbell's first year in Detroit, it was not good. I think it will be similar with the jets and again, I'm not betting it, but for the AFC East, Bills, Dolphins, jets, all Unders, Patriots overs and then we move to a division. I have strong feelings on a lot of these teams, but only one win total that I want to bet and that's the AFC North. So Ravens Demons a over under 11 and a half. Juice slightly to the over. I am not betting it. But you cannot. You can't pick a Ravens under until proven otherwise. And. And so to me, they are an over. When Lamar, like last year, it felt like they lost a ton of dumb games. They still won 12. And I like the move. The. The moves they made this offseason. I think they will continue to be a regular season juggernaut. With that said, the reason this is not a bet for me is the slight concern that Derek Henry. We saw the last great Derrick Henry season. And if that's the case, I could see them only winning 11 games. But it wouldn't shock me if this team goes 14 and 3. It would shock me if this team goes 10 and 7. So because of that, I'm an over. I imagine you, Damanze, are a strong over for Baltimore.

[Devin]

Yeah, definitely. Yeah, definitely the best team in the NFL right now.

[Nick Wright]

Definitely best team in the NFL.

[Devin]

I mean, easily top two or three, but yeah, so that's good for.

[Nick Wright]

Well, listen, a lot of people think they're the best team in the NFL. Me, Mina Kimes got very mad at me because I did not. But I certainly think they are. They are set up for massive regular season success. I also think that when you were talking about like the Patriots schedule, the Raven schedules in the other direction. Yeah, it is brutality for the Ravens. Now, what does that mean for them? I. They. They typically have a tough schedule this year. To me, if you want to hear.

[Devin]

It real quick, actually, it's not, it's not that bad. I mean, obviously you got the divisional games, but then outside of that, like you got the Rams, you got the.

[Nick Wright]

Chiefs, you have the nfc, you have the divisional. Yeah, that's what. Yeah, you have the divisional games plus the NFC north, plus the other. I have it right here. What's the other division that they play? Sorry, I had it now. I closed it. But regardless, I think that. And the AFC East. So the AFC east is not brutal, but it's certainly not an easy schedule. But Listen, they win 75% of their games in the regular season with Lamar. Yeah, they would be an over. It's not a bet for me. Here is our first bet. The Bengals, under nine and a half, wins at minus 115. Why is the defense going to be better than last year's? And if the answer is Luanna Rumo was a, was a, you know, an inside agent for the opposition, so be it. But I disagree. And so the, the. They did get Trey Hendrickson back. That does matter. I'm not dismissing that. However, they had him last year and he led the NFL in sacks. I think the offensive line could be a real problem. And because of that, Damanze, I think Burrow. Listen, Burrow, Chase and Higgins are going to be great. Are they going to be as good as they were last year? I don't know. And because of that, to me, the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year. They win nine games, they miss the playoffs and they fire their head coach. That Is my major Cincinnati Bengals prediction is this is Zach Taylor's last year there. And here's the other thing with the Bengals when you look at their schedule you like to say oh it opened soft at Cleveland, home for the Jags. They start every year so terribly. I don't know that I want my easy games early. Last year they started against New England and found a way to lose. I also think Miles Garrett could wreak some havoc in week one against them. I just again, I'm not saying the Browns are going to beat them. I think the Bengals are an under and that that is a bet. This next one Demons A is such a disrespectful number. Yeah, I was the Browns total set at 4 1/2 minus 1:45 on the over, plus 1:20 on the under. It's an absolute stay away. But I will if I have to pick, I will pick over. Yeah, I mean four and a half wins when you you get 17 games now now it is given the fact that they were a last place team. You look at the schedule and you're like where are the super easy games? And then you realize like one of their strength of schedule last place games is the Niners. Like that's unlucky. The Titans is a last place schedule game but they get the Titans to Monze late in the year when Cam Ward should be better. So you know that's a bummer for them. They get the.

[Devin]

Yeah. Honestly the.

[Nick Wright]

Yeah. You don't right? Well no, they start unbelievable. Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions is how they start. Like give me a break. And then. But I don't think the Steelers and Bengals are going to be great. And the numbers four and a half. I've got to go over four and a half and so I will go over four and a half but it's not a bet for me. And then we get the Steelers who cost me a ton of money last year. I faded the Steelers left and right and they somehow found a way into the playoffs. Their total is eight and a half. They are minus 115, minus 105. I am an under for Pittsburgh but it is not a bet. I said this two months ago and I will stick with it. I think that we have Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Aaron Rodgers final season. That was a take I had before they signed Rogers Brew then made it his own take but then he flip flopped it so I took it back. And so I I know doubting that Tomlin can get to nine wins has only ever been a losing bet or doubting that he can get to.500. He did go what, 88 and one one year or something. I mean he's never been below.500.

[Devin]

That happened at some point, right?

[Nick Wright]

I would think at this point. And I just, I think they will have a good but not overwhelmingly dominant defense. I don't think the Rodgers DK Metcalf fit is a smart one like one that makes sense. And so because of that I am going to go under on the Pittsburgh Steelers which also means through two divisions. I only have one bet. The bet is Bengals under nine and a half. But I am also skewing towards unders. Yeah, the only I have under for bills 12 and a half, Dolphins 7 and a half, Jets 6 and a half, Bengals 9 and a half, Steelers 8 and a half, over Browns 4 and a half, over Patriots 8 and a half and over Bengals. I'm sorry Ravens and over Ravens 11 and a half. Thank you. Also, in the least shocking news ever, we are only going to do the AFC today because we're not going to get through 32 teams in 30 minutes. This is exactly what happened last year where Tuesday's show I tried to do some actual news then all 32 teams and then what we ended up doing was some actual news. 16 teams. And then Thursday we do the NFC and all our other bets and remind me in 2026 guys just format it as such. But in the meantime we still have half the conference to go through and we have 1, 2, 3, 5 bets we are making from the AFC south and the AFC West. But before we do that, I got to tell you guys, I am so excited it's finally here. Tomorrow night I am going to the US Open and that's why I want to shout out our great sponsor of today's show, SeatGeek. 28 million app downloads SeatGeek, the number one rated ticketing app. There are more than 70,000 events listed on SeatGeek including concerts, sports festivals and more. With the NFL season just around the corner and MLB playoffs approaching, now is the perfect time to to get to a game. You guys know I love using SeatGeek and I'm just show you exactly how it works. So you I I already opened the app. I go to the US Open. I am not going today. I am going to go Wednesday. So Wednesday I'm going to go to the night session get Ash tickets. Remember if you have Ash tickets you can go everywhere. Ash is the golden ticket to go everywhere. You buy Louis Armstrong tickets, you get a seat in Louie. But you can't get into Ash. It's just easier. Buy Ash tickets and bang, I'm right there. Here's the thing. I'm going. I think Danny is going. Daman, our, you know, dear friend Mark Carmen is in from Chicago. He's going. So I'm going to need three seats on Seat Geek. You know what? It's probably easier to get four. There's probably someone else coming as well. Four seats on SeatGeek right there. And the way it works is, as always, look for the big green dot. That means it's the best deal. So right now, boom. Section, row A, you love a good row A. Amazing deal. Wednesday night, seven o', clock, Louis Armstrong US Open, Honey Deuces, you love it. My friends at seatgeek. And don't forget again. Big green dot, good little red dot. Find a different ticket. Every ticket's backed by their buyer guarantee. And if you guys could help me out, you can use code write 10W, R, G, H T10 for 10% off your next set of tickets at SeatGeek. 10% off any tickets with promo code RITE10. Click the link in the description of the show. Download the app, have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later. Thank you to my friends at SeatGeek.

[Buzz Knight]

Hi, I'm Buzz Knight, the host of the Taking a Walk podcast. And join me for an upcoming episode with with Seth McFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, talking about his new Frank Sinatra music project.

[Charlie Pinion]

Anyone who loves music would salivate over something like this. The biggest question for us was, what's in these boxes? There were a few unplayed gems that we had been alerted to by Charlie Pinion of Sinatra Enterprises. So we knew that certain songs like Shadow of your Smile, which actually is not on this record, it'll be on the next one.

[Buzz Knight]

Seth McFarland.

[Charlie Pinion]

Don Rickles went up to Frank Sinatra and he said, listen, I'm going to be having dinner with this lovely woman and I, you know, would you come over and say hi? And just so you know, because I feel like if she sees that I know you, it's going to make me look really cool. And, you know, I might have a good night. During the middle of dinner, Frank walks over and says, don, hi, how are you? And Don goes, frank, please, I'm in the middle of dinner.

[Buzz Knight]

Seth McFarland on the taking a Walk podcast. Listen to Taking a walk on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Manny and Noah]

Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.

[Nick Wright]

Attention, passengers. The pilot is having an emergency, and we need someone, anyone, to land this plane.

[Manny and Noah]

Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.

[Nick Wright]

And they're saying, like, okay, pull this.

[Manny and Noah]

Until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.

[Nick Wright]

I'm Noah.

[Devin]

This is Devin.

[Manny and Noah]

And on our new show, no such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.

[Nick Wright]

Those who lack expertise lack the expertise. They need to recognize that they lack expertise.

[Manny and Noah]

And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the run, right? I'm looking at this thing. See, listen to no such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[John Lithgow]

Hello, I'm John Lithgow.

[Nick Wright]

We choose to go to the moon.

[John Lithgow]

I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast.

[Nick Wright]

That's one small step for Man.

[John Lithgow]

It's about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.

[Buzz Knight]

You're a great pilot, Buzz.

[Nick Wright]

As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.

[John Lithgow]

That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.

[Ken Jennings]

To depression, alcohol abuse, and suicide.

[John Lithgow]

We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.

[Nick Wright]

What do you say, Buzz? Another beer.

[John Lithgow]

And triumph over addiction.

[Ken Jennings]

Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.

[John Lithgow]

Good luck to you and become a true hero.

[Nick Wright]

Buzz and I will proceed into the.

[John Lithgow]

Lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself.

[Nick Wright]

Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.

[John Lithgow]

Starring me, John Lithgow.

[Nick Wright]

Can you put it through?

[John Lithgow]

Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

Columbia.

[Ken Jennings]

Hello, puzzlers. Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy. Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.

[Charlie Pinion]

I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.

[Ken Jennings]

That's right. Are there Jeopardy. Truthers? Are there people who say that it. It was rigged?

[Nick Wright]

Yeah. Ever since I was first on, people.

[Charlie Pinion]

Are like, they gave you the answers, Right.

[Nick Wright]

And then there's the other ones which are like, they give you the answers.

[Charlie Pinion]

And you still blew it.

[Ken Jennings]

Don't miss Jeopardy. Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

All right, Damanze. Now to the AFC South. We have the Texans nine and a half wins with minus 130 on the under. So Vegas favoring the under for the Texans. I will go. This is a lean. Not a, not a bet, but a lean. I will go by the slightest of bits and over for the Texans. I like, don't love, I like the quarterback. I really like the coach. I love the defense. I think the Texans defense has a chance to be the best defense in football this year. They certainly should have the best pass defense, pass rush plus secondary in football. They could be vulnerable against the run. I'm worried about the offensive line. I'm worried about some of the receiving options and that, you know, the injuries are running back. I think are, are a real thing. But I like cj. I think he needs a bounce back year. I don't think they're a dominant team. I don't think they're a Super bowl contender. But I think they can get to 10 wins. So I, and I'm getting plus money on it theoretically, even though I'm not betting it. So I'm a slight over for the Houston Texans. You were very high on the Texans last year to Monz. Have you cooled a bit? How do you feel about C.J. and Houston?

[Devin]

I thought C.J. was kind of dealing with some shoulder stuff.

[Nick Wright]

Yes.

[Devin]

Earlier this offseason. Over, over nine and a half. I'm honestly going to go under nine and a half. I just don't want them to do that. I've got a bet that I, I probably can't disclose now or no. But, but yeah, that was just.

[Nick Wright]

Oh, one of your bets that you're going to talk about on Thursday.

[Devin]

Yeah, 100%.

[Nick Wright]

Okay. All right.

[Devin]

But I mean they can still go over. But yeah, the, the defense is nice. Honestly, like logically I, I'd say over nine and a half is a little low for the Texans.

[Nick Wright]

But, but yeah, hopefully they, you're going with your. I understand. And nine and a half is not necessarily low for the Texans. Like I, I, I think that's, I think it's a fair number. The next team listed, it's the Indianapolis Colts. Their number is seven and a half. It is the same slight juice. Minus 130 on the under. And this is a bet and this is a bet that I love and I am taking the under on the Colts I am so dismayed by how they continue to handle the quarterback situation.

[Devin]

How did they not get the treatment on the over under?

[Nick Wright]

Well, because Steichen always finds a way to win games. Like where they do deserve credit is they rarely bottom out. I mean, yeah, I mean they, they so screw. They. Last year they won eight games. The year before they won nine games. The year before that they won. They won four. That's how they ended up drafting Richardson. But then before that, 9, 11, 7, 10, like, you know what I mean? They have been. And under Steichen, they've been, they've been in the mix. I think that ends this year. I do not like their weapons. I do not like their defense. I do not like Daniel Jones. And I think it is on the board that the Colts are the worst team in the league. I think that's possible. I think that there's. Let me put it like this. There, there aren't. If we did a worst team in the league draft, there wouldn't be five teams I would take before. And the, the, the other piece of it is, listen, I'm not going to act like I think Anthony Richardson is going to be good. I don't. I. My bet would be he's never good. I also though think if you take a player that raw fourth overall and he's has less than one season's worth of starts and you throw in the towel for Daniel Jones after Daniel Jones has a mediocre at best preseason, I just think that process is so backwards that you should not be rewarded for it. And I think that they are going to have a very, very difficult season. And Daniel, you know, wonders if they start slow. Should they trade Jonathan Taylor? I don't. I mean, I am also not sure Jonathan Taylor at this point will be as you know, continue to be as good as he's been. I just, I do not believe in this team. They are a heavy under for me. I think that number, their win total should have been six and a half and I still probably would have taken the under at seven and a half. I love the under almost as much as I love this over. We are so back, baby. We are so, so back. Jags over seven and a half. Minus 125. Oh my God. I love it. I love it so much better. Coach. Two legit receiving threats. A real commitment this off season. I felt to getting some of the fundamental things that were wrong with the team last year. Most notably the lines better. I, I think Travis Hunter is going to make a legitimate and quick impact. I think that the two new offensive linemen are significant. I don't mind that they lost Kirk and Gabe Davis because I didn't think those guys were substantial players for them. And I just think that Trevor also understands this is the last year anyone cares about where he was drafted. And the fact that I can. They could be below.500 and I win this bet is just remarkable to me. And so jags over 7 and a half at minus 125. I am all over that one, buddy. I am all over that one. Do you think I'm crazy?

[Devin]

Take the train wheels off. No, I think that this, this has got to be the year. It's got to be the year for Trevor.

[Nick Wright]

Well, I would. One would hope. If it's not. Listen, if it's not this year, then. If it's not this year, then I just have to admit defeat.

[Devin]

Yeah, you got to be done.

[Nick Wright]

You know what I mean? The five years in. If it's not this year, I have to admit defeat. And the last one titans over under six and a half plus 110 on the over. Minus 130 on the under. Feels like a slight, slight, slight under. I'm. My hesitant 10c is as bad as I think the Colts are going to be. Do I think they're going to get two wins against the Colts and then all of a sudden. You know what I mean? You're right there. But even if you believe in Cam Ward, I don't know that I believe in the coach. I don't know if I believe in the infrastructure of the team. It also feels like a 6 and 11 season would be like okay, step in the right direction and that would still be an under. So slim margin. I'm an under for the Titans now to my division that I'm all over. Yeah, just absolutely all over. The AFC west. The Denver Broncos nine and a half. Never has a team that last year beat two quarterbacks all year that are currently starters in the league went 07 in its games against playoff teams unless you include beating the Chiefs backups as a playoff team. Gotten this much preseason smoke under 9 and a half gets me plus 1 10. I think it is more than on the board that this team finish goes 7 and 10. They are more. Let me put it like this. They are more likely to go 7 and 10 than 10 and 7. I will take the Broncos and fading Bo Nix who again was good last year. I don't doubt that he was good last year. I do doubt that he is going to have similar success this year. I Will take that. And I. And here is the thing that I say on the front end of that Domanza. They start the year off with four straight games against teams I don't really believe in. I think there is going to be a lot of Broncos folks. I'm planning my flag on this. I think there is a chance. The Broncos start like 4 and 2 and I'm dealing with a lot of chirping because they go Titans, Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Eagles, really tough. Jets, Giants, Cowboys. How many games that was that? Eight. That's eight games. So I, I think they. You know what? I think they might be able to even start six and two. Don't care.

[Devin]

Is this Sean second or third year? Is this his second?

[Nick Wright]

Third year.

[Devin]

Third year.

[Nick Wright]

Right. Third year.

[Devin]

You don't. You don't think that. I mean him and Bo Nicks just connected. They got. They got 10 wins last year. You're that confident. And the under on the nine and a half that like I've seen some good stuff on the preseason.

[Nick Wright]

Everybody listen, everybody loves him. I get it. And everybody loves Sean Payton. Everybody loves Sean Payton almost as much as Sean Payton loves Sean Payton. I, I think they could start the year off quite strong and then come November when it goes Texans, Raiders, Chiefs, Commanders, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, they'll.

[Devin]

Just lose them all.

[Nick Wright]

A significant. Well, no, obviously not lose them all. But a significant downswing that leaves them under 500 and on the outside looking in on the playoffs. Everyone loves the Broncos this year but me. And they better start off super strong. But I am, I am here saying I expect Monze a big topic in September and October on the show to potentially be Nick ready to admit you are wrong about the Broncos and when I tell you guys, no, I am not. Now to the easiest bet every single year. The Chiefs hitting their over under Andy Reid. It has failed to happen one time and they made up for it that year by winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs win total, getting Even money over 11 and a half wins. That's an easy one. I will take over 11 and a half every day with Kansas City. 12 and 5 would disappoint me. I expect 13 and 4 or better. They are not going 11 and 6. The Chiefs, we don't need to spend more time on it. Everyone knew I was going Chiefs over because it is the right bet. I am going over with the Kansas City Chiefs and there is that. Now to the Las Vegas Raiders. The raiders total is six and a half. It is minus one. 45 on the over. I like Geno. I Love Pete Carroll. I believe in the Raiders. I am going over with the Las Vegas Raiders. It is six and a half. I think the schedule is soft. I think Genty will be a force. I think Brock Bowers is going to have the best statistical season of any tight end. I believe in the Oakland Raiders 100% as far as being able to win seven games. I think they can do better than that and we'll talk more about that on Thursday show. But I am in on the Raiders. Any objections there to Monza?

[Devin]

100%. I like the Raiders too this year with all the new stuff. Yeah.

[Nick Wright]

And then last but not least, the Chargers numbers nine and a half. This number to me is just about correct. I will lean under but it is not a bet. I think they probably go 9 and 8 and just miss out on the playoffs. But it's a lean under on the Chargers. The Rashawn Slater injury is enough to tip me over to the underside if I had him at 10 wins before. So to recap, we have the Jags over seven and a half, the Chiefs over 11 and a half, the Raiders over six and a half. We have the Bengals under nine and a half, the Colts under seven and a half, the Broncos under nine and a half. Thursday we will do the NFC, we will do our make miss playoff bets. We'll do our division winners, the super bowl exacta and Daman's top five bets which were again plus nine units on five one unit bets last year. One of the more underrated features of our show last season. It's a great show. I have to run. Save our questions from today's show for Thursday. I have to go. We are late for everything. I can't believe football's finally here. Like rate, subscribe, review, do the whole thing. Talk to you guys soon. Thank you to volume, DraftKings, Blue Duck Boost, mobile, SeatGeek, and who else am I forgetting here? I think I got everybody in. If I didn't, I apologize. Talk to you. I I think I said volume on the front end to talk to you guys all later.

[Buzz Knight]

What's right Hi, I'm Buzz Knight, the host of the Taking a Walk podcast and join me for an upcoming episode with Seth MacFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, talking about his new Frank Sinatra music project.

[Charlie Pinion]

Anyone who loves music would salivate over something like this. The biggest question for us was what's in these boxes? Really the most thrilling part was hiring an orchestra and just playing what was in these boxes.

[Buzz Knight]

Listen to Taking a Walk on the IHR app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama. Folks find it hard to hate up close. And when you get to know people and you're sitting in their kitchen tables and they're talking like we're talking, you know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up, and you get a chance for people to unpack and get behind all the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.

[Manny and Noah]

Why are TSA rules so confusing?

[Nick Wright]

You got a hoodie on. Take it all.

[Manny and Noah]

I'm Manny. I'm Noah.

[Devin]

This is Devin.

[Manny and Noah]

And we're best friends and journalists with a new podcast called no Such Thing where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? I can't expect what to do now? If the rule was the same, go off on me. I deserve it.

[Nick Wright]

You know, Lock him up.

[Manny and Noah]

Listen to no Such Thing on the IH Heart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

No such Thing.

[Ken Jennings]

Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy Truthers believe in?

[Charlie Pinion]

I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.

[Ken Jennings]

That's right.

[Charlie Pinion]

They gave you the answers and you still blew it.

[Ken Jennings]

The Puzzler. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nick Wright]

This is an iHeart podcast.