The High Performance Podcast

Episode: How Liverpool Used Data to Sign Mo Salah, Alisson, and Van Dijk | Guest: Dr. Ian Graham

Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Jake Humphrey & Damian Hughes

Episode Overview

This episode features Dr. Ian Graham, former Director of Research at Liverpool FC, and a key architect behind the club’s groundbreaking data-driven approach to player recruitment. Dr. Graham discusses how Liverpool’s use of analytics transformed the club's fortunes—leading to signings like Mo Salah, Alisson Becker, and Virgil van Dijk—and opened a new era for the club. The episode explores both successes and missteps, the battle to integrate data into football decision-making, and how culture and leadership enabled Liverpool to move from “challenges to champions.”

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Mo Salah Signing — Data Over Narrative

• Background: In 2017, Liverpool had to choose between Mo Salah (then at Roma) and Julian Brandt (Leverkusen). Jurgen Klopp initially preferred Brandt.

• Data’s Role vs. Narrative Bias:

  • Salah had the “failure” stigma from an underwhelming Chelsea stint; conventional wisdom in football often clings to such narratives.
  • Data analysis challenged that narrative, showing Salah’s high trajectory and undervaluation.
  • Quote [00:04]:
    “Signing Mo was something you could get sacked for if it didn’t work out. Where data helps is it gives you something to weigh that Chelsea failure against.”
    — Dr. Ian Graham

• Why Salah?

  • Liverpool’s model showed Salah outperforming the Premier League average for players under 24 and playing in a compatible “wide forward” role.
  • Market factors: Roma’s financial distress and Chelsea “failure” reduced Salah’s price.
  • “If you look at it, he was behind Eden Hazard in the pecking order… Mourinho likes older, experienced players. Those things explained why he didn’t play at Chelsea.” [02:54]

• Resistance in Football to Out-of-the-Box Decisions:

  • Many clubs avoid bold moves for fear of blame.
  • Quote [05:53]:
    “Nobody gets sacked for playing IBM… Signing Mo was something you could get sacked for if it didn’t work out… That safety to make those braver decisions—that depends on the culture.” — Dr. Ian Graham

The Decision-Making Process and Klopp’s Leadership

• Process in the Room:

  • Data formed the shortlists, but Klopp relied more on detailed video analysis and character discussions.
  • Michael Edwards (Sporting Director) narrated the breakdown of the player’s strengths/weaknesses and story arc.
  • Klopp “loves stories of adversity,” so Salah’s “failure” became a positive.
  • There was mutual trust because prior signings had proven successful. [09:49]
  • Quote [10:39]:
    "Jurgen’s someone who loves stories of adversity. So the fact that Mo had failed, that was a positive to Jurgen, when it would be a negative to lots of managers.” — Ian Graham

• Psychological Profiling:

  • While not data-driven, Liverpool paid close attention to fighters over just “winners,” using personal networks.
  • Courage and risk-taking can be somewhat captured in data (e.g., pass completion on risky passes). [14:21]
  • Quote [14:21]:
    "Players might have a much lower pass completion percentage… that speaks somewhat to bravery on the ball." — Dr. Ian Graham

The Growth of Psychological Safety & Early Friction

• Importance of Top-Down Support:

  • Decisions depended on psychological safety, enabled by leadership and owner buy-in.
  • Early years under Brendan Rodgers lacked trust and led to friction.
  • Transfer committee process often led to stalemates; managers preferred their intuition over data, leading to unsuccessful signings (e.g., Aspas, Balotelli).
  • Quote [19:28]:
    "I think it was only one of those meetings I actually sat in… I can't sit in any more of these meetings. He was just stupid and negative… There was no compromise from the manager's side." — Ian Graham

• With Jurgen Klopp:

  • The process became collaborative; the core process didn’t change, but the dynamic and trust did.
  • “If everyone thinks this is a good idea, the chance of failure is much lower…” [19:02]

Alisson Becker & Defensive Evolution

• Goalkeeper’s Modern Role:

  • Liverpool’s attack was world-class; defense lagged.
  • Targeted world-class keepers: Alisson (Roma) and Oblak (Atletico). Both elite shot-stoppers; Alisson proven in open teams and with the ball at his feet.
  • Liverpool again exploited Roma’s financial distress for better price.
  • Dr. Graham confirms statistical analysis covered not just saves but degree of difficulty (expected goals including ball trajectory, positions, etc.) [25:37]
  • Quote [22:10]:
    "I'd prefer Alisson with a Cruyff turn to another goalkeeper who maybe doesn't do a Cruyff turn. The number one aim for a goalkeeper is to keep the ball out of the net... his footwork was the reason it was Alisson." — Ian Graham

• Feedback to Players:

  • Early days relied on video analysis because event data had too many blind spots.
  • Tracking data later helped give more context.
  • Data helped give players confidence when results didn’t go their way ("psychological safety").
  • Quote [28:02]:
    “It was always the case of, you know, one of our forwards had scored a lot of goals one season and wasn’t scoring at the same rate the next season. Part of it was his finishing had been incredible in that first season. The data says you can’t continue converting at 50% more than we’re estimating you should.” — Ian Graham

Scoreboard Journalism & The Manager Bounce Myth

• Scoreline vs. Underlying Performance:
  • Bad luck and variance often drive perceptions, media narratives, and even sackings.
  • Data often showed Liverpool’s performance outpaced results—even when external pressure suggested otherwise.
  • Quote [30:45]:
    "Reversion to the mean is a manager killer… There’s a famous paper… Clubs that sacked their manager—performances went down and then went back up again… Their results went back up in exactly the same way." — Ian Graham

Signing Virgil van Dijk & Transfer Strategy

• Breaking the Transfer Record:

  • Fenway Sports Group (FSG) traditionally averse to record spending; Van Dijk’s signing was a turning point, made possible by the Coutinho transfer windfall.
  • Attack was already “overloaded,” so investing in defense provided larger marginal gains.
  • Van Dijk identified as a late bloomer; undervalued at Celtic due to limited defensive challenges in the Scottish league.
  • FSG typically avoided buying players over 24, but made exception for Van Dijk, as top center-backs “skew old.”
  • Quotes:
    • [35:51]: "There's this concept of diminishing returns... for every extra attacker you put on, who wants to take a shot... for our attack, there was a diminishing return."
    • [41:29]: "Centre backs continue, top ones continue producing into their mid-30s... So centre back skew older and because of that you can say 26 in centre back years, but like dog years, 26 is 24 in forward years."

• Market Dynamics:

  • Emphasizes “all-in cost”—not just transfer fee, but wages and fit.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On why data matters:
  "Signing Mo was something you could get sacked for if it didn’t work out. Where data helps is it gives you something to weigh that Chelsea failure against.” — Dr. Ian Graham [00:04]

• On Salah’s reputation:
  “If you look at it, he was behind Eden Hazard... Mourinho likes older, experienced players. Those things explained why he didn’t play at Chelsea.” — Dr. Ian Graham [02:54]

• On football’s risk aversion:
  “Nobody gets sacked for playing IBM… Signing Mo was something you could get sacked for if it didn’t work out...” — Dr. Ian Graham [05:53]

• On Klopp’s attitude to adversity:
  "Jurgen’s someone who loves story of adversity. So the fact that Mo had failed, that was a positive to Jurgen when it would be a negative to lots of managers.” — Ian Graham [10:39]

• On committee transfer friction:
  "I can't sit in any more of these meetings. He was just stupid and negative… There was no compromise from the manager's side." — Ian Graham [19:28]

• On psychological safety:
  “It has to come from the top… We were always given the feedback: Don’t worry. We know this is a long-term process...” — Ian Graham [16:23]

• On modern goalkeeping:
  "I'd prefer Alisson with a Cruyff turn... his footwork was the reason it was Alisson." — Ian Graham [22:10]

• On diminishing returns in attack:
  “For every extra attacker you put on, who wants to take a shot... you're not getting six, you're getting five or five and a half because they take shots from each other.” — Ian Graham [35:51]

• On manager ‘bounce’:
  "Reversion to the mean is a manager killer... the new manager does get a win in two draws. The scoreboard journalism says, wow, he's really turned it around." — Ian Graham [30:45]

The Future of Data & AI in Football

• AI’s Role:
  • Most immediate use is better data collection (computer vision for tracking player movement).
  • Democratizes access to analytics for smaller clubs.
  • True revolution comes not from discovering “the next Messi” but making advanced tools accessible and integrating feedback loops into coaching.
  • Quote [42:51]:
    “AI is just very complicated data analysis… Football clubs are really bad at simple data analysis. Get the basics done first before we worry about AI... AI will help democratize data.” — Ian Graham

Closing Thoughts

Dr. Ian Graham offers a rare, honest view "behind the curtain" at Liverpool—the failures, the breakthroughs, and why integrating data depends as much on culture and leadership as on clever algorithms. The episode reveals how Liverpool’s willingness to challenge narratives with evidence turned bold transfer bets into era-defining success stories.