Gloria Romero (5:47)

There are sources, do tell CNN that there are concerns inside the Trump administration, though, that taking military action, military strikes, could actually backfire and undermine the protests by swelling support for the Iranian government. Do you see that?

Hugh Hewitt (6:06)

Yeah, if it makes sense. Again, if those strikes make sense, absolutely. I do support those things. You know, I don't know exactly what the conversation is. I'm saying I'm open to that, and I am actually inspired by the real kinds of courage that those protesters in Iran are demonstrated now. So I don't know why we can't all want to support that, to back them and now bring that awful regime to its knees. Now that's where it's at right now. They're so desperate. Now they're, they, they, they killed the Internet and now they're mowing down their own citizens. Now they're even so desperate, offering $6 a month as some kind of a payoff now, too. Now, for, for me, I think we can all agree that the world would be better, safer and more just if you could break that regime. I do not believe Legacy Media saying that there are forces inside the White House who are counseling against striking the regime after President Trump made those threats. I don't believe it. I think it's useful for the legacy media narrative, but I do not believe it. David Ignatius is the senior national security voice for Legacy Media in Washington. Been a columnist for the Washington Post for many, many years. I know David. He's very reliable. Here is what David said on Morning Joe this morning. Cut number four. So the best case scenario is that a regime whose security forces are, are weak, are rusty, that failed to help its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Bashar Al Assad in Syria and in Iran itself, couldn't fend off an Israeli attack last June. That, that, that, that regime, if hit hard, will begin to crack. What does it mean to hit it hard? So what it means, I think, is heavy munitions striking, barracks, bases, certainly missile production facilities that the Iranians would use to retaliate. But to show the Iranian people that this security force, which is, is hated by a lot of the country, isn't so tough that they're going to crush you. They're themselves on the run. I think that that's what it would, it would look like. It would be, it would be barracks, logistic resources, and those things can be done. People have noted we have no aircraft carrier strike group in the region. That's true, but you don't need one, I'm told. We have enough aircraft in Europe, enough missiles that could be launched to hit the targets, that it's not necessary to move the Gerald Ford or any other aircraft carrier task force into the region right now. And this is what Trey Yanks on Fox News reported. Cut number three. Dana, good morning. Intense anti government demonstrations erupting across Iran.

Dr. Michael Oren (9:04)

Over the weekend were met with a brutal crackdown.

Hugh Hewitt (9:07)

A source in Tehran, speaking with Fox.

Dr. Michael Oren (9:09)

News via Starlink described security forces open.

Hugh Hewitt (9:12)

Firing into crowds of people, using tear.

Dr. Michael Oren (9:15)

Gas and arresting thousands of human rights.

David Bonson (9:17)

Organizations say at least 544 people have been killed over the past two weeks, but with an ongoing Internet blackout, the.

Hugh Hewitt (9:25)

Confirmed number is expected to increase significantly. Iran's President Massoud Possesskian made a public.

David Bonson (9:31)

Address yesterday discussing the clashes.

Hugh Hewitt (9:33)

Don't need to hear regime propaganda. There are very reliable estimates of more than 5,000 murdered by the regime over the weekend. Hopefully President Trump and Elon Musk work together to get Starlink working. Although I'm not sure Starlink can work in Iran to the extent that it worked in Ukraine because the government in Ukraine welcomed it and put up terminals to receive it. The Iranian regime will try and stop those terminals from being activated and tracked down. So it's tremendously courageous of the Iranian people to rise up and walk in the streets as they are. And President Trump made a warning on this show on Sean Hannity show on Thursday night. He did it on Truth Social. He has made a lot of warning and they have been disregarded by the regime. His credibility is high. I don't think he ought to be talked out about hitting them. And I believe the Israelis ought to go along with us and hit the regime. They're only 150,000 IRGC. Those are the the toughest. There are a couple, maybe a million besieged but those are just thugs. They might have weapons, but they're thugs. Stay tuned. I'll bring you the latest from the ROM when I come back on the Hugh Hewitt Show.

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Dr. Michael Oren (11:41)

Or.

Ray Solano (11:43)

Remember, you have a choice in health care.

Hugh Hewitt (11:45)

Welcome back, America. I'm Hewitt, joined now by former Israeli ambassador to the United States, Dr. Michael Oren from Israel. Dr. Oren, welcome. What is your assessment of the situation in Iran and what ought the United States to do and why?

Dr. Michael Oren (11:59)

Situation in Iran is very troubling. Certainly hundreds, potentially thousands of people being killed going out to protest for freedom from this heinous regime. Very disturbing. And it impacts all Israelis. We're all they are for the people of Iran. Before 1979, they were our close allies and we look forward to being allied with them and close to them once again. Having said that, great skepticism here about whether these protests can actually bring down the regime. We're talking about a country of 90 million people. I don't know how many tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands are out protesting, but still it's not 90 million. And the regime has immense means at its disposal for suppressing these demonstrations. You're talking about an army of almost a half a million soldiers, a Guard, Islamic Republican Guard, Revolutionary Guard, of close to a half a million soldiers, plus besieged. These are these paramilitary thugs. There may be 5 million of them. And so the Iranian regime has just begun to fight. Now, whether the United States will intervene or not, I think it's always at this point, I think it's a mistake to gainsay what the President says or question what the President says. And, and if he says the United States is willing to use force, I think he very much means it. I think the American military would like to gather that force, assemble that course within striking distance of Iran. Though, you know, American strategic bombers could take off in Idaho and be over the skies of Iran in a matter of 15 hours or even less. Still, I think the American military would like to have a very large military presence in the area, which includes moving carrier strike forces. May take a few weeks. Having said all that, my gut feeling, my gut feeling, Hugh, is that this is going to end in some type of deal. And I think there are intimations both from the Iranians and the United States that these, that context, context towards such a deal are already going on. What that deal may look like, that deal would look like something like Venezuela where you get rid of the bad guys, get rid of the bad mullahs, which may be redundant, none of the good mullahs, and there are elements in the IRGC will say, well, let us take over and we will reorient. We will reorient Iran back to the United States, which would be a tremendous, not just financial victory for America. Iran, of course, a major supplier of oil, but also give the United States immense leverage over the Chinese because the Chinese economy is almost entirely dependent on Iran oil. Think about that, what that would mean for, for America and the world without firing a single shot for Israel, the outcome would be okay. It could be much better if the regime would disappear entirely. But a regime that has been defanged and now newly connected with the United States, not with Russia, not with China, is very much in Israel's interest now.

Hugh Hewitt (14:51)

Dr. Oren, Donald Trump has threatened four times if they murdered their people, he would hit them. He did it on Truth Social a week ago. He did it on this program on Thursday. He did it on Sean Hannity's program on Thursday night. He did it on Truth Social overnight and on Air Force One. So it's really five times he's warned the Iranians, and now the numbers are horrific. Maybe more than 5,000 people gunned down, 10,000 people taken into custody. Can he afford not to do something, at least hit a missile factory at some IRGC facilities, do something to back up his threat?

Dr. Michael Oren (15:30)

He certainly could. And I think when the president puts a credible military threat on the table, he intends to use it. He puts that pistol on the table not just as previous administrations would put a pistol on the table and had no intention of using that pistol. It actually broadcast American weakness. When President Trump has put that pistol out there, he intends to use it, and that's strength. We saw how it worked in achieving the release of Israeli hostages. We saw how it worked in framing the Abraham Accords. It has worked again and again, and it can work here. But the answer work how? If you bomb IRGC headquarters, if you bomb missile silos, it's not going to bring down the regime again. You're going to still have, you know, the 5, 6, 7 million armed people are going to come out of that regime and knock these protesters on the head and kill them, because the regime is not going to go quietly into that good night. It could also result the regime may turn around and fire some missiles at Israel and that would bring Israel into the, into the fray as well. I think that the use of military force is the means to an end and the end probably is a negotiated end where the Iranians will give up their nuclear program. They will surrender their highly enriched uranium, they will mothball a large segment of their intercontinental ballistic system and as I said earlier, will reorient their foreign policy and their oil policy toward the United States.

Hugh Hewitt (16:50)

Dr. Oren, if Iran were to hit at Israel in the sort of weird calculus that Saddam Hussein used in the 1991 Gulf War when he invaded Kuwait, America led a coalition to oust him and he sent Scuds at Israel, I don't think Israel will sit back this time as they were asked to do and did in 1991. What would the response from Israel be if Iran sends another wave of ballistic missiles its way be massive.

Dr. Michael Oren (17:18)

And I think that Donald Trump is not going to hold us back. I think that was clear from his most recent meeting with the Prime Minister and that Iran no longer has air defenses. Iran is completely vulnerable. The minute they move those missiles out of their silos, they will be hit. And not just the silos. I don't think anybody will be immune from Israel's reaction, first of all and above all, the ayatollah Khamenei.

Hugh Hewitt (17:42)

Now, Dr. Warren, last question. The people of Iran are bankrupt. The rial has now fallen to something like 2 million for one American dollar and it's falling still with the unrest. But we did not. Neither Israel nor the United States hit Carg island, which is their major oil export facility. Is that on the table in your view, if there's another round of conflict here?

Dr. Michael Oren (18:04)

I don't think so. I think the idea is not to keep oil prices going down, not up. And hitting Carg island would cause a spike in oil prices.

Hugh Hewitt (18:12)

I think the whole.

Dr. Michael Oren (18:13)

One of the great benefits potentially of the Venezuelan operation is to reduce oil to 50 or even $35 a barrel and which would, by the way, have the addition to benefit of sort of bankrupting Russia. Think about this. This is the geostrategic ramifications of oil diplomacy. And I think the idea is to somehow get this regime to give up its nuclear program, give up its, its role as the largest state sponsor of terror in the world. Maybe not open an embassy in Israel tomorrow, but certainly maybe have a de facto non belligerency with Israel and again reorient its foreign policy toward the United States. At the same time, bring down oil prices. Bring down oil prices. That will certainly. I think we're down to the President and his party politically as the midterms are approaching. Think about this, think about this as a, as a multi tiered chessboard. You there's much to be gained at this moment.

Hugh Hewitt (19:07)

Dr. Michael Oren, founder of the Israel Advocacy group. You can also follow him on exit. Dr. Michael Oren, Dr. Michael Oren. Dr. Michael Oren on X, one of the people you can trust on this topic. Stay tuned. I'll be right back on the Hugh Hewitt Show. Hugh Hewitt, I'm in studio west of the Relief Actor studio set and I'm so pleased to welcome back Steve Hilton, who I hope is the Golden State's next governor and his running mate, state former state senator Gloria Romero, which was a bit of a surprise because she used to be a Democrat and I think it's the first time she's ever been on the show. So welcome to you both. Steve Hilton, let's talk about why you've asked Gloria Romero to be your running mate. Then I got questions for Gloria Romero on when she saw the light fantastic.

Steve Hilton (19:51)

I love it. Great to be with you, Hugh. Happy New Year. Lovely to see Gloria as well. We're going to be in person later today in Los Angeles. Look, I've always said that this is going to be a tough fight, an uphill battle to turn around California to save our beautiful state. And it's not just going to be one person in one role. I've always seen it as a team effort, a team that's going to turn around California both in terms of the need to elect Republicans at every level in California, the state legislature, county boards of supervisors, school boards and so on. And also across the board, the other statewide offices. It's a massive state, the biggest in America, the fourth biggest economy in the world. I understand about putting together and leading a team. That's how I've always operated when I've started businesses back in the day working in the UK government. So I've always seen it like that. And in fact, there will be more announcements about the team that's taking shape in the days and weeks ahead. But today the focus is on my running mate and running for lieutenant governor Gloria Romero. That's not normally done. In fact, it's the first time it's been done in California. These are independently elected positions and so this is a first in terms of a ticket. But we are very excited about it for two reasons. Number one, Gloria's story is so powerful. She'll tell you about that in a moment. Walking away from the Democrat Party, the area she represented in the legislature, her understanding of the Latino community, but also the second big point, her understanding of the legislature. I'm running as an outsider to shake up Sacramento, to end the corruption, the failure and the bloat and the fraud, and we'll get to all that as well. But Gloria, having served in the legislature, she really knows how things work there, or I guess the right term would be don't work. And so she's going to be an incredibly trusted guide for me in terms of making things actually happening and delivering the change that we need. So here we are today, making the announcement.

Hugh Hewitt (21:48)

Let me turn to Senator Romero. Senator, you may or may not remember I did the nightly news in LA from 1992 to 2002. You were a Democrat's Democrat. So what happened? And welcome aboard.

Gloria Romero (22:03)

Thank you again, too. I think with anything, it's always a process. Overall. If you talk with anybody who worked with me while I was in Sacramento, people knew that I worked across the aisle and I took on some of the biggest challenges even back then as a Democrat, I was one of those Democrats I always have been, who believes in school choice. That meant taking on the number one political backer of the Democrat Party, the teachers union. But I did that, and people in Sacramento knew that way back then. I actually have a bipolitical family. Half of the kids are and have been Republican. The other half are Democrats. We are family. We believe in having the right to, you know, it's America. You get to say how you feel. And so I've always been very comfortable talking, debating, etc. But the final push was really, even after I left the legislature, still trying to bring about change within the Democrat Party, when we saw the political coup in which, even at that point, a bad candidate, Joe Biden, but essentially being pushed out in the back room by movie stars and others, it was just a bridge too far. And so, like many other Democrats, Tulsi Gabbard, Leo Terrell, others, we decided, and I talked about it and said, I'm out of here. I cannot stay any longer.

Hugh Hewitt (23:30)

Senator, would you remind me of where you were both in the assembly and the State Senate? Were you in SLOs? Where was your district located? I can't remember that much.

Gloria Romero (23:41)

The numbers have changed. But obviously the 24th Senate district, that's the east side of Los Angeles, east la, and a good chunk of the San Gabriel Valley. So that was pretty much my district.

Hugh Hewitt (23:54)

What a great choice. Steve Hilton, because she did run for Senator Romero ran for superintendent of schools. When I lived in California, I was excited about that because she's a school choice advocate. How long did it take you to make this decision and who picked up the phone first?

Steve Hilton (24:10)

Well, I'll get into that because I've been. I've been wanting this to happen for a long time. Gloria and I first met on that issue of school choice when she was working with Rick Grinnell on a ballot initiative, a statewide ballot initiative. I had them both on my show on FOX to talk about that. And then we met in person and we got to know each other. When I started my California Focused policy organization, really the first step towards the decision I made to run for governor, Golden Together, that's the name of the organization, Nonpartisan policy organization. I asked Gloria to be on the board of that organization. And we've been working together on policy, in particular education policy, for four years now. And as that process has gone on and I've gotten to know Gloria as a friend and a partner in policy and a colleague, I came to the view that this would be a great fit. And so I've been asking Gloria for quite a while now whether she would consider this. And I'm very, very happy and proud that she said yes. And here we are today making this wonderful announcement.

Hugh Hewitt (25:10)

Senator Romero, I want to go back to. You were a hammer. You were a good Democratic leader. My friend John Campbell was serving at the same time you were. He was on the other side of the aisle. You were very good at what you did. How shocked are your former Democratic colleagues that you're doing this? And will any of them come along and join you and Steve Hilton in trying to turn our bankrupt state around?

Gloria Romero (25:33)

Well, I think when I actually converted to being a Republican, I don't think many of my former colleagues were shocked because they had seen the progression over the years, the advocacy on school choice, etc. Women's rights, a number of issues overall. Certainly the announcement today, I'm sure many of them are really surprised at that, but I believe that they are aware that I'm committed. When I became a Republican, I said, look, I want to do my share, my part in making California great again. And with Steve Hilton, we've had a very good, long running relationship and really trying to restore the California dream, putting that golden sheen back into California. So school choice issues is a major issue. If I can just say, you know, why the lieutenant governor, it again, too, is looking at as a team governor and the. And the Lieutenant Governor. But when you look at the Lieutenant governor, which I often kind of joke about and say it's sort of like the Seinfeld of statewide politics in California, nobody knows what the LG does, but the lieutenant Governor serves on the bodies of the UC Regents, the board of governors for the community college system. Also as a trustee for the CSU and on education, that's almost half the state budget. I'm a product of all three of those systems, both having been a student and having been a professor in those systems. So it's a natural fit for me to really work with Steve, advocating on school choice, meritocracy and admissions performance, etc. So it's a natural fit overall.

Hugh Hewitt (27:14)

Steve Hilton, we've got about a couple of minutes left. Would you remind people what the website for the campaign is, how they can help you?

Steve Hilton (27:21)

Yes.

Hugh Hewitt (27:21)

And there are like 25 Democrats running. Which one? Katie Porter has fallen like a rock. Who are you going to be running against?

Steve Hilton (27:30)

Well, it looks like I want to keep saying you. They're not sending their best.

Hugh Hewitt (27:37)

No.

Steve Hilton (27:38)

Now the person that's risen to the top is Eric Swalwell, if you can believe it. Eric Swalwell, I don't know. There may be others getting into the race. We don't know yet that yet you got the billionaire climate fanatic Tom Steyer through spending a lot of his own money, he's now climbing in the polls as well. Look, it doesn't matter who they send because we need change in California. We cannot have. We've already. This is the 16th year now of one party rule. 16 years of one party rule. It's not healthy. Even if they weren't a complete failure on every front, but they are a complete failure. And that's one of the things that we've been highlighting. I'm just the fraud, you know, as I was been saying, you know, the first time when the Minnesota scandal came to light, however bad it is in Tim Walls as Minnesota, you know that it's a thousand times worse in, in Gavin Newsom's California. And so we've been highlighting that and all these other failures. That one year anniversary of the fires last week, preposterous state of the state speech from Gavin Newsom where he ludicrously claimed that we're a blueprint for the nation where we're actually with the highest poverty rate, highest unemployment rate, highest cost for gas, electric, rent, water, insurance, worst business climate, highest inequality. I mean, everything is a failure.

Hugh Hewitt (28:47)

Oh yeah, we are a blueprint for assisted suicide of a state. That's what we are a blueprint for.

Steve Hilton (28:52)

So Steve, people building a movement for change. Let's Steve Hilton forGovernor.com for Steve Hilton for governor volunteer. We've got a really cool volunteer program going on right now, by the way. The fundraising. We're leading as well. We're leading in the polls. We're also leading on fundraising. We announced that today as well. That's or just about to, where we raised more money in the last six months than any other campaign on either side. It's really happening in California. I think we can make this.

Hugh Hewitt (29:20)

Well, I'm volunteering to moderate around. I'll moderate the Steve Hilton, Eric Swalwell debate and Senator Romero, whoever they put up on the Democratic side against you, I'll moderate that as well because I know what, you know what you're talking about. Congratulations to you, Steve, on a coup and Senator Romero keep coming back. California can be saved, but it can't be saved with Democrats. It just can't be. And I'm no longer a citizen here. I'm just visiting for a few weeks. But to get people to come back, they got to throw out the people that are running the state. Steve Hilton, Gloria Romero, thank you. I'm coming right back with Senator Tom Cotton on the Hugh Hewitt Show. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, is chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He has also followed for years the brutal Iranian regime. Senator Cotton, welcome. How do you assess the degree of violence in Iran? It's kind of closed off to us, but you might have sources that others of us do not have.

Senator Tom Cotton (30:19)

Hugh, you know, you always introduce me as the chairman of the Intelligence Committee. You never caveat that with the fact that it's an oxymoron. So I appreciate it, but we should always probably do so for our listeners. The situation in Iran, though, is no laughing matter. I think the violence is worse than what's generally being reported in the Western media and from outlets or if you look at outlets such as the Committee on Human Rights in Iran or the Institute for the Study of War, they're getting it closer.

Dr. Michael Oren (30:49)

Right.

Senator Tom Cotton (30:49)

I think the deaths now number in the thousands, not the hundreds. And it's just past midnight in Iran tonight. They've had another big night of protests. And I think the regime, which doesn't have the ability or for that or the desire to address the underlying grievances of its people, is resorting to one of its probably two only options, which is to increase the brutality towards the people. So I support the moral clarity President Trump has exhibited on this growing crisis and the threats he's made to the ayatollahs, and certainly support the brave people of Iran who are yearning for freedom.

Hugh Hewitt (31:29)

Senator Cotton, the president has made at least four, I think now, five threats one of them on this show to the regime, that he will hit them very hard, harder than they've ever been hit. The Wall Street Journal at this hour, though, after those five threats by the president is reporting that the White House is engaged in an internal debate. Some senior administration aides, led by Vice President J.D. vance, are arguing Trump to try diplomacy before retaliating against Iran for killing protesters. I personally don't believe that. Do you?

Senator Tom Cotton (32:02)

Well, I'm sure there may be some voices, you inside the administration who want the president not to enforce his own red line. But the only person whose opinion ultimately matters in the administration is the president. And time after time, he has enforced his red line. Sometimes he's enforced Barack Obama's red line. Did it twice.

Hugh Hewitt (32:25)

Well, I just don't think Vice President Vance would leak. That's why I don't believe it. I don't think he would leak.

Senator Tom Cotton (32:31)

Well, he's made clear that he means what he says and he says what he means. And he told Maduro, for instance, that he needed to go into exile. And Maduro was stubborn and pigheaded and dug in his heels. And now he's sitting in a jail in New York City. And he told, I told us to turn over their, all their nuclear program. And they didn't. And the nuclear program is now in smoldering rooms. So they should take him seriously no matter what some of his more dovish advisers might be saying or trying to leak to the media.

Hugh Hewitt (33:01)

Now, Senator, we do not have a strike group, a carrier strike group in the Middle east right now. Do we still have options for following through on President Trump's five threats directed at the ayatollah?

Senator Tom Cotton (33:13)

I think it's fair to say after Operation Midnight Hammer last June that blew up Iran's nuclear facilities and the operation to apprehend Nicolas Maduro, that the United States military has amazing capabilities that never puts any kind of operation outside of its grasp, no matter where this or that military asset may be located on the globe.

Hugh Hewitt (33:37)

How weak do you think the regime there is? It seems to me I've been following it for 47 years, since the initial Iranian revolution against the shah. It's never been weaker than right now. But I also believe that they've probably butchered thousands of people in the streets in the last four days.

Senator Tom Cotton (33:55)

I think it's incredibly weak. As weak as it's been maybe since the ayatollah seized power in 1979. I don't think they can. Whatever happens from these protests, I don't think they will ever be able to restore themselves to the aspirations they had just six months ago or eight months ago, whenever it was before. Operation Men on Hammer of regional hegemony. I think they've been exposed to the second or even third rate power and their own people have had it with them as we've seen over the last couple of weeks. And that's why they're having to resort to this kind of brutality.

Hugh Hewitt (34:30)

I would like to play for you, Senator Cotton, a segment of President Trump on Air Force One last night when a CNN reporter asked him if he thought that the Iranians took him seriously. Cut number six. Don't you think so? Cnn don't you think so? Wouldn't you say that they probably do at this point after going through it for years with me being hit Sol Khomeini, Al Baghdadi, the Iran nuclear threat wiped out, don't you think? And then you just had Venezuela, don't you think? She says CNN do you think they take your threat seriously? Wouldn't you say they do after all of the things we have done? What a stupid question. Senator Cotton. I got through 20 minutes with the president and he didn't say I'd asked a stupid question. So I'm feeling kind of victorious after Thursday's interview because he doesn't hold back when you ask a stupid question. That really is, I think he's got a lot of credibility. Does he lose any of it if he doesn't act?

Senator Tom Cotton (35:32)

It was a very stupid question. These liberal reporters live in a fantasy world in a world that is not governed by force and by resolution. That's the world that our enemies live in. Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, the supreme leader of Iran world Nicolas Maduro is definitely living in now. They stand up and take notice any time America displays strength and resolution the way Donald Trump has done now since his return to office nearly a year ago. So of course they are paying attention to him and taking him seriously, even if a bunch of liberal reporters can't understand that. So there's no point, there's no question that they understand. I mean, their treatment of their view of President Trump is kind of like so many people's view of Kurt Signetti in Indiana. I mean, how many, how many times do they have to stop a top 10 or top 5 power before you take them seriously and don't think that they've got imposter syndrome?

Hugh Hewitt (36:30)

I agree with that, by the way, and that's a very good analogy in terms of options available to the president. They don't all have to be kinetic. Can they do anything to reconnect Iran to the outside world because we don't know what's going on in the darkness.

Senator Tom Cotton (36:46)

Hugh, I don't want to get into the precise details of every option, but no, suffice it to say the president has many options to help reduce the violence against the Iranian people and increase the pressure on the regime. Many different levers that the United States can pull.

Hugh Hewitt (37:04)

Now, last question, Senator, we know Israel would applaud any application of force there. What about our Gulf state allies? Would they welcome the regime toppling, falling apart in Iran?

Senator Tom Cotton (37:19)

They might not be vocal about it, Hugh, but I think most Arab nations have had it with Iran and Iran's efforts to try to establish that regional dominance over Arab peoples. And many of those Arab nations have cooperated with us in the past in ways that don't often get a lot of publicity, but is very, very welcome from the United States standpoint.

Hugh Hewitt (37:41)

Senator Tom Cotton, always a pleasure. Thank you, Senator. I appreciate your time today. Don't go anywhere, America. I'm going to come back later this hour with Mark Dubovitz. More of your phone calls during the break. 1-800-5201-234 do you welcome President Trump taking kinetic military action against Iran or something that we can see? I'm primarily concerned that we not end up with a Barack Obama red line that evaporates in all that follows or a Joe Biden collapse of will in Afghanistan. Iran has always prospered the mullahs, I should say the mullahs, not the Iranian people. The mullahs have always done well under Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. They haven't done as well when a Republican's been in office. And Donald Trump is their worst nightmare. I want him to stay that way. Stay tuned. What do you think? 1-800-5201-234 Connection to me, Hugh Hewitt, welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. As you heard me say at the beginning of the show, the biggest story in the world is what's going on in Iran. And I know we all have our favorite interesting stories, and I cover the news as it breaks, but the biggest story in the world is in Iran. For 47 years, that tyranny has been in place. And for almost as long, the foundation for the Defense of Democracy has been working to bring it back down and free the people of Iran. Joining us now is the CEO of the foundation for the Defense of Democracy, Mark Dubovitz, who has been on with me before. He did a great podcast series last year on iran, which had 12 parts. He added another part this weekend called Iran Breakdown. I recommend it to you, Mark, Welcome. Let me start with a big what's your reaction to what's happened over the last two weeks and a day?

Mark Dubovitz (39:26)

Well Q, thanks so much for having me on. Look, Hugh, it's extraordinary. I mean, as you said, I've been working on Iran for 22 years, working with lots of administrations, including the Trump administration, both Trump administrations, on maximum pressure on the regime, but also encouraging maximum support for the Iranian people. And the Iranian people have been out on the streets since 2009, repeatedly calling for death to the dictator, end the Islamic Republic, establish relations with America, with Israel. And now in the past two weeks, they've taken to the streets. Millions of Iranians are on those streets, but they're also getting mowed down by the security forces. Thousands of Iranians have been slaughtered, tens of thousands have been arrested, tortured and dozens executed. So it is a pivotal moment for the United States, for Iran, for the region.

Hugh Hewitt (40:14)

So I stress to my audience, they can't trust what they see on X unless they know that the person on X is someone they can trust. They can trust you. They can trust Clif May, Karim Sadhguru at Carnegie. You've got a lot of colleagues at fdd. I'm pushing out. How do you tell, if you're just, you know, newbie to the Iran issue, who to trust on this about what's going on there since the regime is severed outside world contact with the people of Tehran and across all of Iran.

Mark Dubovitz (40:45)

Yeah, I mean, here, listen, it's difficult to know what's going on on the ground because, as you said, they've shut down the Internet. They're interfering with Starlink access. Videos are still coming in, and we're certainly seeing what's happening on the ground. What do I trust? Look, I don't trust anybody defending the regime, number one. Number two, I don't trust anybody saying that US Intervention is going to lead to some kind of rally around the flag. The notion that millions of Iranians are on the streets and they're getting mowed down by the security forces. But somehow, if President Trump intervenes and goes against the regime, these Iranians are going to defend the regime, I think is nonsense. So anybody saying that should not be trusted. I think a lot of good Iranian voices, my colleague Saeed Ghassamanijad, certainly Reza Pahlavi. I mean, he's all over social media. The crown prince, the son of the former shah. He has been very articulate, and I certainly would trust many of the things that he's saying.

Hugh Hewitt (41:38)

Okay, now let's talk about what the President can do. He was my guest last Thursday and he said very bluntly will hit him very, very hard if they kill people. But he also gave him a little bit of an out. He said some of these deaths were because of stampede later that night. He didn't use that out with Sean Hannity as much. And it's been totally abandoned by Sunday night. The President now knows there are thousands of people dead. I'm sure we've confirmed that to him. What could he do, in your view, that would be most effective in freeing Iran?

Mark Dubovitz (42:10)

So I think there are a number of things he can do. I mean, first of all is to target the security forces that are actually engaged in this brutal repres, go after the repression apparatus. And you could do that through offensive cyber and or military strikes against the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij, the police. These are the people that are engaged in this brutal repression. Number two is already reached out to Elon Musk is to try to restore or improve the Starlink connection. So these videos are coming out. Iranians are right now being murdered in the dark. They need to be brought to light. And that's very important. I think the President and Elon can do that. Number three, you know what Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump discussed at the end of December that you reported on, Hugh, was the growing and reconstituting Iranian missile program, which is going to represent a significant threat to the United States and Israel as it gets rebuilt. The Israelis are going to go take it out. I think better the United States takes it out, because if the United States takes out the missile program, Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, is going to be quite reluctant to respond because he knows that if he attacks the United States, that's the end of his regime. If the Israelis take it out, it's going to lead to another round. Iran will fire hundreds, if not thousands of ballistic missiles at Israel and we're going to be in a, in a major war in the United States, and President Trump's going to have to deal with that. So I think President Trump, if he has the opportunity, take out those dangerous ballistic missiles, support the people, unlock the communications, go after the regime.

Hugh Hewitt (43:43)

Mark, this is a difficult question for anyone to answer, but you'll know if anybody knows. I heard Karim today in a podcast with Dan Senor say that The IRGC is 150,000 strong. All right. Iran's 90 million people 10% is 9 million people. 1% is 900,000 people. So 150,000 IRGC members. That's a third of 1%. How hard is it to, to overthrow 150,000 thugs? It's a lot of thugs. They got a lot of guns. There aren't any other guns in Iran. But that's not a big police state. It's relatively small, isn't it?

Mark Dubovitz (44:21)

Well, there's 150,000 IRGC. There's probably 2 to 3 million members of the Basij, which is their militia. Those are the thugs that drive around on motorcycles and beat up and, and torture and kill Iranians. So you've got a couple of million there. And they're also importing thugs from Iraq. This is the Iraqi Hezbollah and the Shiite militias that they're bringing in. You're bringing in Arabs to kill Persians because in some cases the security forces don't want to turn their guns on their own people. So the regime's apparatus is formidable. But you're right, listen. I mean, there's 92 million Iranians and if 10% came to the street, they could overwhelm the security forces. And certainly some of them are armed, particularly some of the Kurdish groups, the Beluchis and others. So I think that's certainly a potential.

Hugh Hewitt (45:11)

So, Mark, you're not old enough to remember the actual revolution. I watched it in real time with Ray Price and Richard Nixon, San Clemente, my second job out of college. People marched in the daytime then. Do you expect anti regime marches to occur in the daytime? Yeah, they are.

Mark Dubovitz (45:29)

They're occurring in the daytime, they're occurring in the nighttime. I mean, what I'm, what I'm worried about, Hugh, is that if there's no US intervention, that these protests are going to die off because of the brutal repression. And whether it's day or night, the guns are being turned on Iranians. Thousands are being slaughtered. At some point they're just going to have to, they're going to stay home. And if they stay home, the regime is going to come out of this, yes, a wounded animal, but a bitter one, a lethal one, a much more dangerous one. And I'd be worried that Orion's would never go back on the streets.

Hugh Hewitt (45:59)

Follow Mark on X at M. Dubovitz. Follow everyone at fdd. Mark is coming back next hour. So my other, my drive time audience inside the Beltway hears him for six minutes. Repeat a lot of this. So make sure you listen to both segments of my interview with Mark Dubovich and follow him and follow the foundation for the defense of democracy. Stay tuned. Morning, Gloria and evening, Grace and Erica. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Welcome to hour three of today's program. I'm joined by Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired United States Navy, now senior fellow with the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. I had the CEO of FDD on last hour, Mark Dubovitz. Part two is going to come up this hour. Admiral, I first want to begin by saying I listened to your conversation with Aaron McClain at the school of War. That was fascinating. And I had no idea that you liked the Arleigh Burke destroyer that much. I take a few people up and down that river where they've got three Burkes underway at any given time. There ought to be 10 underway at any given time.

Admiral Mark Montgomery (46:59)

No, you're absolutely right. Arleigh Burke. We've built 80 of them. We've got 10 under contract. It is the singular best ship. It is the proof we can do things right when so many other things tell us we can't. It's a beautiful ship. I mean, the President and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on that. On top of it, by having 80 and now going to 90, you can defray costs of any individual change across 80 or 90 ships. So a $20 million change cost on that ship, you know, $200,000. But on a DDG 1000, we only have three ships. A $20 million change cost 7 million for that ship. So it's a beautiful class of ship built by. By both, you know, Ingalls and Bath Ironworks, you know, in two different states. Beautifully. It is the best surface, large surface combatant in the world today, and it will be for the next 15 to 20 years. Because the. The investments we made in new Aegis Baselines, 9 and eventually 10 in new weapon systems and in modernizing the hull and mechanical plan.

Hugh Hewitt (48:07)

Every time I go buy it, there's one ready to be commissioned, there's one in the final stages. When they're putting the Aegis stuff on it, though, it's behind the curtain. And then there's one that is just getting underway. So I think they're doing about one every two years. Is that about right up in Bath? I don't know what they're doing in Mississippi.

Admiral Mark Montgomery (48:28)

I'd say one per year in each yard. And it really gets out to closer to two and a half per year between the two yards total. And there'll be perturbations where we launch four in a year, but then the next year only two. You know how it is. But yes, it's, you know what, that's consistent ship.

Hugh Hewitt (48:44)

But we bought.

Admiral Mark Montgomery (48:44)

The ones you're watching were bought in a lot of nine ships that guaranteed both yards consistent, predictable money. So they could invest in modernization if they chose to and they could invest in a workforce.

Hugh Hewitt (49:00)

Now Admiral, the president on this program on Thursday said he is asking for a trillion and a half next year in the defense budget. That's great. Can it be banked if there's nowhere to spend it? I mean can it be appropriated and banked over it at either Bath Ironworks or Huntington Ingalls or whoever is making whatever General Dynamics down in Connecticut? Can that money be appropriated and spent but not outlaid?

Admiral Mark Montgomery (49:27)

So obviously what we're talking about is an extra 500 billion. The current budget this year is 901. It's going to be 9, it looks like 901 billion plus about 150 billion reconciliation just going to be up there. It may a little less 150 billion of the reconciliation money spent. What he's talking about is increasing at 500 billion. That's a great question you're asking. I actually think that, that there are ways to do some of it, you know, with shipbuilding that you could get some multi year money in there. But I think it'd be very challenging to spend all of it that fast. You. I think he's going to have challenges getting a 300 billion. I think the plan would be 300 billion reconciliation, 150 to $200 billion increase in base, which the Democrats would probably push for 150 to 200 billion in non defense discretionary base. And I think at that point everybody, you know, from conservative financial circles heads.

Hugh Hewitt (50:21)

Yeah, we don't go, we don't want that. Yeah, but I'm thinking that the Columbia class is not funded, but the, the defense, the whole triad depends upon it getting launched in eight years, doesn't it?

Admiral Mark Montgomery (50:36)

Look, I think that the Columbia class will have some slippage and some cost overruns, but I actually think by current historical standards it's going to be a good program. Look, the B21 has done fantastic. You got to give the Air Force a lot of credit. That thing is delivering close to on cost, close to on time with, with, you know, one of the reasons is they've been very consistent, like not making significant changes to the platform while still in design. This is something where we failed on the think and Terry on the Constellation class frigate at the Fincantillary yard. The US Navy got their fingers in the pie way too often changing the requirements and that was a major driver in our failure there. So the answer, Hugh, is we probably will get all this done. I don't think it'll be eight years. I think it'll be 10. I don't think if we say it's 100 billion, I think it'll be 120. But these are predictable increases in cost and growth.

Hugh Hewitt (51:34)

All right, well, I'm finally glad to hear some good news. And I was very encouraged by your conversation with Erin McClain. I recommend everyone go to school of war. Now, what kinetic options does the president have available tonight? There are a million people in the streets of Tehran as you and I are talking right now. The images I've seen are extraordinary. If he wants to send a message to stop mowing them down, as has been happening for the last four nights, what can he do that gets the attention of the Ayatollah Khamenei and the irgc.

Admiral Mark Montgomery (52:08)

So I think we have two. First of all, there's complaints. We don't have a carrier strike group at this moment. That's true. But what we do have is a B2 fleet that can operate even if Israel had not rolled back the whole Iranian air defense networks, which they did the, and then operated with some, not say ease, but, but consistency over Iranian airspace. Those B2s delivering, you know, each delivering, you know, up to, you know, 25 to 50 precision guided munitions very accurately could really do a number. You know, these aren't the four DOE bombs. These are lots of small bombs, can be delivered very accurately and they could get in and out safely. Also, we could use long range strike Tomahawks from destroyers that are in the Middle East. And if there are submarines, particularly one of our modified SSGN Ohio class submarines, then we could deliver a lot of Tomahawk as well. But really, I would be relying heavily on our penetrating bomber, the B2 Stealth.

Hugh Hewitt (53:15)

So, Admiral, you're a student of deterrence. We've talked about it a lot. The president has made the threat five times as recently as Thursday on this show. Then he did it again on Sean Hannity's show. Then he did it on Air Force One last night. He did it on Truth Social over the weekend. How much does our credibility suffer if he does not follow through with a kinetic strike now?

Admiral Mark Montgomery (53:36)

So first of all, this sounds a lot like Venezuela over three months right now. The thing I'd say in fairness, that you don't say, I'm striking, I'm striking that night. That's not fair to the military forces trying to plan around your Lack of surprise. So the President handled Venezuela perfectly. Three months of a maximum pressure campaign. I didn't agree with every tool he used, but that's he's president and he did a great job with it. And by the time he even did like a title 50, it looks like intelligence strike one night around December 24th, just to send a signal, I will hit you. And then he hit him. Right. And he grabbed Maduro. And so I think he's got a lot of credibility. And if I say I'm going to use force, I might use it on you, I guarantee. China took an important lesson on the willingness of Donald Trump to use force. Now, in the case of Iran, he said it a lot. Look, conditions on the ground drive that can the application of our cost imposition make it safer or more or more likely for, for counter regime forces to succeed? If they can, then he should use the weapons. But what he signals them is I'm willing to do it. And they know we can bring B2s over their airspace, since we did it already, you know, early in 2025 with the Fordo strikes. So I think he's done the right thing. I don't think we'll lose credibility if he doesn't strike, only because he did it in Venezuela and the conditions aren't perfect here in Iran just yet.

Hugh Hewitt (55:02)

All right, last question. I don't know how Starlink works, but you do. You were the executive director of the Cybus Solarium. People keep saying Elon sends Starlink. It's my civilian understanding, which is zero, that you got to have receivers on the ground for Starlink in the sky to work. Am I right or wrong? I don't mind being wrong. You can tell the world I'm wrong if I'm wrong.

Admiral Mark Montgomery (55:25)

The only way I've used it is with receivers on the ground. I didn't necessarily have to have the receiver, but someone with whom I was connected to had to have a receiver. So do I think there are Starlink receivers on the ground in Iran? Yes. Do I think that the system. He has to align the system properly so it can be utilized by the people potentially. So I, I think the question might be, is Starlink being aligned so they can properly be utilized by people, you know, who are not complicit with the government? And that's a good question to ask him.

Hugh Hewitt (55:57)

But quick bonus question. Do we have the capability of interrupting their jamming, which is going on of Starlink and other cyber efforts? Do we have a cyber tool available that can hit them that we don't have to see.

Admiral Mark Montgomery (56:12)

We have cyber tools and kinetic tools and we are world class counter jamming, you know, suppressing jamming with our kinetic tools. We're very good at it and you only have to do it once before the guy who owns the jamming system says, you know, I'd prefer to not be on, you know, so I would. That's a kinetic weapon that can be released at them. But in addition, do I think they're cyber tools? Yes.

Hugh Hewitt (56:39)

Admiral Mark Montgomery. Admiral Montgomery, thank you so much for joining us on both the shipbuilding and the Orion question. We'll talk to you again soon on both. I appreciate your time Coming right back, America with David Bonson talking about the economy. Stay tuned.

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Hugh Hewitt (58:03)

Welcome back America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. I was just reading online, joined by David Bonson, CEO of the Bonson Group. David, happy new Year to you. Good to talk to you. I was just reading that President Trump has imposed a secondary tariff on Iran, 25% additional tariff on the goods of any country that does business with Iran. I've never seen that before, have you?

David Bonson (58:30)

Well, I guess I think there have been other issues with smaller countries and obviously there was a layering of tariffs and sanctions is a better word for it with Russia after the Ukraine invasion. But I mean, trying to freeze Iran out seems to me to be pretty good foreign policy.

Hugh Hewitt (58:50)

Now it is a tariff. I know you don't like tariffs, but that's a national security tariff if everyone was correct.

David Bonson (58:57)

Yeah, yeah. That's not, I wouldn't consider that a protective tariff in any way, shape or form. It would be a national security sanction.

Hugh Hewitt (59:04)

Right. So what I expect the Supreme Court to do with the case before it is to remand the case without a decision for tariff by tariff examination by the district court as to whether or not there's a national security nexus. In other words, punt. Is that your expectation?

David Bonson (59:23)

Well, look, you would be more of an expert than I would on the legal side of it. They were not national security rationales for the case that is before the Supreme Court. Now it's under ipa, which is an economic emergency. There is a different rationale between 232 and 301 for national security and no one has even contested the potential constitutionality of those. I don't happen to believe the steel and aluminum tariffs remotely represent a national security concern. But that's different than the case for the Supreme Court which is under an economic emergency, where they're claiming that trade deficits are in and of themselves economic emergencies. And I would very much hope that the constitutionalist and originalist on the court would laugh this out.

Hugh Hewitt (60:09)

I'm actually an originalist and I think the IEPA was written in such a way as to give the court pause. But let's, let's put that aside. What I really want to talk to you about is the New year. I'm very conservative going into this new year because I think there hadn't been a correction in a while. What are you telling your clients, David?

David Bonson (60:30)

Well, I wrote a 20 page annual review commentary forecast that we do every year that is up@dividendcafe.com went out on Friday. And I'm talking about the different themes. We have our concerns about the AI theme which I was on with you late last year talking about, and I believe the valuation concern, it isn't so much you going a long time without a correction. I mean, look, the Nasdaq was down 30% and S&P were down 20% for a few days last April. So you've had, you've had volatility, but the valuations and concentration in the broad market are very high. And we are definitely encouraging clients, the way we're managing money, to be much more selective.

Hugh Hewitt (61:16)

So when the President is in an open conflict with the Fed and there might be a DOJ investigation about the Fed's architectural overhaul, does that have any impact on the market or should it?

David Bonson (61:34)

Yes, it should, in the sense that if people believed it were a pretextual intervention to central bank independence, which I think it's unquestionably it is. But I believe the reason market shrugged it off Today, Hugh, is that they don't really take it seriously. I think they view it as jawboning, jockeying, you know, bowling a little bit to try to make sure that Chairman Powell, when his chairmanship term ends in a few months, that he leaves and not tries to stay for the next 19 months till his Fed governor term ends. There's no legal requirement that he leave. But you got to go back to 1948 since the last time a Fed chair did not leave when their chairmanship ended. I think Chairman Powell is going to leave. I don't, I don't like this investigation and the pretext behind it, but I do think markets shrugged it off today for that reason.

Hugh Hewitt (62:30)

Now, I'm an agnostic as to whether or not there is a pretextual investigation going on here or whether or not they actually spent a billion dollars they didn't have. I'm open to that. What I'm curious about, you mentioned originalism. I don't think there should be an independent central bank, David. That's not in the Constitution. There can be a legislation for it, but I think the President ought to be able to remove every person in Article 2. You're an originalist. What do you make of not he doesn't get the there's a bank, it's legal, but I think he ought to be able to replace the bankers.

David Bonson (63:07)

Yeah. The problem we have, Hugh, you and I are going to be on the exact same side of this. I also believe that you can't go create something that exists in sort of outer space. Space within our separation of powers. Let me just be clear. So my integrity is intact. I don't think the President cares about this stuff at all. I think his motive is he wants someone to do what he says. Right, but your point structurally that the Fed from the Federal Reserve act which was passed by Congress, exist in a sort of limbo as to where that jurisdiction, jurisdiction is between separation of powers. I'm very uncomfortable with it. And I think the solution to that is to not willy nilly what parts of the act we follow and parts we don't, but it is to go get legislative review and judicial review to force this to be done constitutionally. Now you know why I know that can be done because we're doing it with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which I also believe was passed unconstitutionally. But these require judicial review done the right way.

Hugh Hewitt (64:16)

So this is the big thousand dollar question. If the Court upholds the President's right to remove at will anyone in the executive branch so he can replace Every Fed governor. I'm not worried about that because I don't think he's going to put they still have to go through Senate confirmation. They can't be bozos. I think they'll be normal banker types and they'll be like Jerome Powell then. Do you agree?

David Bonson (64:42)

Yes, I do. Look, the president already has the right to appoint them. You're saying if he has the right to fire them at will.

Hugh Hewitt (64:49)

Yes.

David Bonson (64:49)

And ultimately I wouldn't be worried about who would end up on the court as long as the Senate, excuse me, on the Fed, as long as the legislative branch does its job, it concerns me practically not structurally, that I don't think we always necessarily have a Senate doing its job. But that is the way that the system is designed and ought to function. Absolutely.

Hugh Hewitt (65:16)

So I believe that we can find nine Fed governors that would make it Now, David, I haven't listened to the Dividend Cafe yet. Did you record a podcast on your 20 page magnum opus? I haven't seen it yet.

David Bonson (65:28)

I did and I'm going to DM it straight to you when we're done because there's very few people in the country. I want to hear it more than you, you. But yeah, we did the video with all the charts, the podcast and then there's a full written PDF that came out on Friday. Yes, and just reviewing everything from 25, but then giving our forecast and themes for 2026.

Hugh Hewitt (65:50)

I want everyone to go to Dividend Cafe wherever you get your podcast from itunes, Spotify, whatever and listen to David's Year End Year Beginning summary. His podcast on the AI bubble is also not to be missed. But that's a few weeks back. The new one is the one I want to get. Follow him at David Bonson on X. He's also the founder of the Bonson Group. David, happy New Year to you. Thank you for joining me. Don't go anywhere America, except maybe during the break and go like and follow the Dividend Cafe and download this latest Year End, which I will listen to by the time I'm here tomorrow. Don't go anywhere. I'm Hewitt. Mark Dubovitz is next. Welcome back, America. Coming up after the break, Sebastian Lai, son of Jimmy Lai, is going to join me this hour. This segment though, I'm bringing back Mark Dubovitz who is with us last hour. He is the CEO of the foundation for the Defense of Democracy. He's one of the actual people you can trust on Iran. Follow him on Exit M. Dubovitz. Follow everyone at the foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and there are a lot of them. There are a half dozen Iran experts. The FDD is actually the go to place. Mark, when we ran out of time last hour, I wanted to ask you, President Trump mentioned on Air Force One last night that the regime wants to negotiate. My reaction is, God, no, don't do that. That they're just playing for time. Is that your reaction?

Mark Dubovitz (67:15)

Yeah, Hugh, absolutely. I mean, this is a typical regime trick. Their back is against the wall, so they offer negotiations and try to trap American negotiators. And the only place where they tend to win against America is at the negotiating table. They won against Biden, they won against Obama. They think they could possibly win against President Trump. I think it'd be a big mistake to go back to the table fundamentally, because, number one, it would be a betrayal of the Iranian people that are on the streets. And number two, Hugh, there's no way that Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, is going to meet the minimum demands that President Trump has a full dismantlement of their nuclear missile programs and terror networks. No way Khamenei is going to give in to that. And if not, he's just going to play for time, try to divide America, try to divide the White House, try to divide the US From Europe, and he's going to ultimately try to embarrass the president. And I don't think the president is going to be embarrassed and is prepared to be embarrassed. So he, he needs to enforce the red line that he laid out.

Hugh Hewitt (68:11)

Now, Mark, the Israelis could have killed Khamenei and no doubt we can kill Khamenei, but there are arguments on both sides. Are we to leave him alive or we do if we have the ability, have him shot, killed?

Mark Dubovitz (68:25)

Well, I do think we need to decapitate the leadership of Iran, and that includes Khamenei, but also includes senior IRGC commanders, those who are in control of the command and control system of Iran, and that includes the repression apparatus. So, yeah, if you decapitate the leadership, then there's possibility of others stepping into their place. I mean, that's what President Trump did in Venezuela with Maduro. I think there is more than just Khamenei. There are others, but certainly a decapitation effort should be seriously considered.

Hugh Hewitt (68:59)

All right, now, Mark, what are the how many IRGC bases are there? How many besieged bases? The final Israeli wave was going to hit them. President Trump waved it off in order to bring that conflict to an end last June. How many target sites are we talking about?

Mark Dubovitz (69:17)

So there are, I mean, there are dozens and dozens of IRGC bases all around the country, obviously headquarters in places like Tehran. But certainly it's a target rich environment. I mean, the Israelis and the Americans have detailed intelligence on all of these bases, maneuvers, apparatus. This has been studied for years here. I mean, particularly by the Israelis. I mean, Mossad and military intelligence in Israel have a very, very large and expansive target set. And that information has been provided to the Americans. So there's no shortage of targets. Just a question of what President Trump will choose.

Hugh Hewitt (69:55)

If President Trump brings down this regime, I think he goes to the top of American presidents, at least since fdr. He's going to actually surpass Reagan. The Soviet Union, of course, dissolved under George H.W. bush. How would you rank that achievement? I think Iran is a linchpin and I've got Nixon on the brain. Nixon used to say it's everything. It's one of the two pillars of the Middle East. And so how big of a moment is this for Donald Trump?

Mark Dubovitz (70:22)

Yeah, I've said publicly here, you know, that, that if he brings down the Islamic Republic of Iran, he will be one of the greatest foreign policy presidents in modern history, if not the greatest. I mean, the Islamic Republic of Iran, first of all has killed and maimed thousands of Americans. It has created massive bloodshed and chaos in the Middle east and continue to drag us into these endless wars in the Middle East. It sponsored terrorism globally. It's threatened to kill President Trump and try to kill him. And it is tried to build nuclear weapons. It has built a massive ballistic missile program. It's fired hundreds of those ballistic missiles at Israel and missiles and drones at our allies in the Middle East. I mean, it has been such a force for murder, chaos and violence that to get rid of it and to replace it with something better and more stable, more peaceful and more prosperous would be a game changer for American national security. And by the way, it would also allow us to do what we need to do, which is to focus our resources in the coming years on the multi generational threat from the Communist Chinese Party.

Hugh Hewitt (71:22)

I read him your quote and he laughed. He said, haven't I already done that? He's done pretty well, I've got to admit. Ruining the Iranian nuclear nuclear deterrent is a big deal. But do you think we could count on a posthumanist regime being stable and at least not evil?

Mark Dubovitz (71:41)

Yeah, I mean, President Trump also did say that. He said, I accept that. I accept that. His interview with you.

Hugh Hewitt (71:46)

Right.

Mark Dubovitz (71:46)

You know, I think he appreciates how important taking down the Islamic Republic is. And I think he has for most of his adult life. I think we have got, I don't think we can count on anything in the Middle east and we certainly can't, can't count on anything in geopolitics. But there's no doubt in my mind that whatever comes next will be much better.

Hugh Hewitt (72:03)

So everyone in your car, go to FTD foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Follow it at fdd, follow Mark at Mdubovitz. And there are lots of other people as well, but make sure they're reliable. Don't believe the regime propaganda, don't believe the regime apologists, don't believe people who supported the JCPO bully, people like Mark. Thank you, Mark Dubovich. Stay tuned.

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Hugh Hewitt (73:23)

Lai is next. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt in the Relief Factor Studio West. Last Thursday I talked to President Trump about a number of things. Second on the agenda was Jimmy Lai and whether or not President Trump had brought up the imprisoned human rights activist with General Secretary Xi Jinping. President said he had that we haven't got a response from Xi Jinping. And then the president went on to praise my next guest, Sebastian Lai as being a good son who's been active on behalf of his father. I'm pleased to welcome you back, Sebastian. First of all, I didn't know you had met with the President. That was news and I'm glad you did. Are you getting more optimistic or still no sign of movement from the People's Republic of China?

Sebastian Lai (74:12)

First of all, thanks so much again for having me and for mentioning to the President yes, it was. Look, I mean, having the President care about my father's case and, you know, mention my father's name, it just gives us a lot of hope. You know, him saying that he willhe willthis is something that he will deal with. This is something that he's working on. And, you know, we're so incredibly grateful. I just want to thank him from the bottom of my heart. And unfortunately, as the President said, China hasn't responded yet. But again, time is running out for my father. So the ball's in that court and they need to respond soon, otherwise my father will unfortunately pass away in prison.

Hugh Hewitt (74:57)

Now, President Trump said that he's old and sick, so he's aware of his condition, but that they haven't heard anything from Xi. Is there a point at which you would naturally expect them to allow him to move to Great Britain? Is there a sentencing, a conclusion point, as they had with Solzhenitsyn? They finally just tossed Solzhenitsyn out because it wasn't worth the problem. Is there a date in your mind? You'd think that they'll do that after some proceeding is finished.

Sebastian Lai (75:26)

Unfortunately, they're very happy keeping him there. You can see with the torturous conditions that he's under, you know, for solid confinement has been for the last five years and they've kept on delaying this, this never ending trial. It seems that now it's finally getting to its end. And to everybody's surprise, they found nothing, there's nothing that incriminates my father. They have found this man who's given everything that he has for freedom and democracy, stayed in Hong Kong, fought for his people. And you know, I think that that's why it's so important for the President to press this case. Because, you know, the, the Hong Kong government, these are cruel people. These are people that want to see my father die in jail. And without pressure from the President, that's what the Hong Kong government will do to my father.

Hugh Hewitt (76:16)

I did ask him, Sebastian, if he would consider the release of your father as a significant gesture by Xi Jinping. And he said yes. I kind of count that as a win. Do you see that as a win? That he is putting significance into that? Sort of, it's a bargaining chip. It's something he wants.

Sebastian Lai (76:35)

Yeah, definitely. We're so, we're so incredibly grateful. And you know, to know that the President cares about my father's case is something that has given our family a lot of, a lot of hope. And it is, the thing is, look, it's A relatively easy thing for Hong Kong and China to do. I mean, it will take them two hours to put him on the plane and send them over to the US to the uk, to wherever. I mean, this is. This is very administratively incredibly easy and at no cost and directly beneficial for. For every. For everybody. So if not even even willing to do something as simple as that, it shows a. It shows a lot of how the Chinese and the Hong Kong view, you know, view the cruelty that they're doing to my father.

Hugh Hewitt (77:26)

I'm a great believer that sunk costs cripple governments as well as individuals. They don't realize that there is no benefit to keeping your father in prison. There's one other person in the world besides President Trump, I think can get their attention. That would be Pope Leo xvi. Has the pontiff said anything about your father?

Sebastian Lai (77:45)

So the Holy Father has met with my mother and sister publicly, and we're so incredibly grateful for that. So I don't believe he said anything publicly, but I think he is praying for my father and for a man in his situation by himself, in his cell, knowing that the Holy Father is praying for you and that there's so many people praying for him worldwide, it gives him immense strength. I mean, this is what he's going through is something that I think would break many people. And his faith, his. The knowledge that he has done the right thing is what keeps him going.

Hugh Hewitt (78:27)

Sebastian, what can the audience do besides pray for you and your family and your father?

Sebastian Lai (78:36)

You know, please write to your representatives, follow the story along and I mean, besides pray. But praying is a huge thing as well, especially in a case like my father's, where, you know, they keep in solitary to tell them that nobody cares about him, that nobody, you know, cares that he sacrificed everything for democracy. I think that's something that would matter to him tremendously. But write to your representatives and just tell this story whenever you have the chance to.

Hugh Hewitt (79:08)

Has anyone been allowed to sit down with him? Your sister, the barrister who's representing him, yourself, Anyone been allowed to see him in the last six months? Months outside of that brief court appearance that I noted?

Sebastian Lai (79:20)

Yeah. So he doesn't get any. He gets prison visits. Obviously, they're notwell. Anything he says is listened to. But he at least gets prison visits. From my understanding, it's half an hour each time, four times a month. So it's a little something to hold onto. But, yeah, it's nothing.

Hugh Hewitt (79:52)

Sebastian, who goes in to see him? It's gotta be dangerous to go there. Who goes in to see your father, the lawyer, your sister, your sister.

Sebastian Lai (80:02)

Yeah. So lawyers, family members. Unfortunately, because my sister has now spoken out on behalf of my father, she could also no longer go back to Hong Kong. So she made this very conscious sacrifice after very bravely being with my father for the last five years by his side, to go out and speak out about the horrendous treatment that he's under and the deterioration of his health. And because of that, she can't go back.

Hugh Hewitt (80:32)

Sebastian, please keep us informed. I'll continue to ask the president or the Secretary of State whenever they're on the program about the, the progress of this guy. I think the more eyes that we can put on Xi Jinping, he could do himself a lot of good in the world if he just let your.

Senator Tom Cotton (80:47)

Father go to Great Britain.

Hugh Hewitt (80:49)

So our prayers continue with Sebastian. By the way, the President very impressed with you and I am too. Thank you for your ongoing efforts on behalf of your dad and democracy in Hong Kong. I appreciate Sebastian Lai. Follow free Jimmy Lai on at and follow me to the next segment on the Q Hewitt Show. Thank you for that. Pro Savings days are on at Lowe's.

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