← The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
U.S. Special Forces extract Maduro from Caracas (Operation Absolute Resolve)
01:19:51
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Hugh Hewitt
Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, all things Hillsdale at Hillsdale. Edu. I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there. And of course, a listen to the Hillsdale dialogues. All of them@q4hillsdale.com or just Google, Apple, itunes and Hillsdale. Good morning, Laurie and even Grace America. Good Monday to you. I'm Hugh Hewlett on the west coast for a few weeks and what a remarkable weekend. And my hat is off to the American military. Some were wounded in this and prayers for their quick recovery. According to the Government of Cuba, 32 Cuban security forces were killed in Operation Absolute Resolve. But we haven't had that confirmed by American sources yet. But apparently a couple of the special forces that entered the Maduro compound to take the dictator and his spouse out and put them into American custody, get them to Brooklyn, where he appeared in court earlier today, were wounded. Our prayers for their family. More details on that as it occurs. First thing I want to say is it was absolutely legal. Now, I realize we have Steelers fans and they might not even be sober yet because of the way that they won yesterday. Article two, Section one, first sentence. The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States. Article two, Section two, first sentence. The president shall be the commander in chief of the army and the Navy of the United States. You know what that means? That means he runs the Department of Justice, which had an indictment against Nicolas Maduro and his wife for many years now. So it's a law enforcement operation wrapped inside of a military operation that got it done and it was absolutely legal. But for the benefit of the People who've been listening to mainstream media and a little bit confused about can the United States do that? I could take you all the way back to Jefferson ordering the Louisiana Purchase when he didn't even think it was constitutional for the Congress and he to agree to do it. But let's just say in the last 50 years, Gerald Ford in the Mayaguez incident, May 12th through 15th, 1975, no prior authorization from Congress for grabbing that boat. President Carter ordered Operation Eagle Claw on 24 April 1980. It did not succeed the famous Desert One debacle, but he ordered it without telling Congress. President Reagan and the Grenada Operation Urgent Fury, October 25, 1983. We could talk about George H.W. bush in Panama. And I have as many people have in December and January 1989, 1990 to get Mr. Noriega out of there and into a U.S. jail. We can talk about Bill Clinton's 78 day bombing campaign of Serbia in March to June of 1999. We can talk about President Obama bombing Libya though he was quote leading from behind in words attributed to him. Those airstrikes began on March 19, 2011. Operation Neptune Spear May 2 of 2011 to get bin Laden again. Didn't tell anyone before we did it. And of course he could do it. Some people will say well that had the AUFM behind it but AUMF and they are right. But it does demonstrate we don't have to tell Congress. The strikes on Soleimani and Al Baghdadi which the PresidentPresident Trump mentioned from his first term in Saturday's extraordinary press conference. Both of them, you don't tell Congress. It's absolutely the use of the armed forces. It's covered by the Constitution. President Biden ordering Syrian airstrikes in February of 2011. Again, no notification of Congress. First, the Donald Trump effect Trump derangement syndrome has completely shattered the ability of the American media to and the Democratic Party to cover the obvious. He's a bad guy, he's an evil guy. He ran a cartel, so did his wife. He looted billions of dollars from Venezuela, which we'll try and get back for the Venezuelan people. Moreover, the three most important things that were said in the press conference the President did on Saturday morning, which I listened to live while I was trundling down at Huntington Beach. Number one, something Secretary Rubio, President Trump does not play games. Number two, something President Trump also said on that day, Secretary Rubio said he doesn't play games. President Trump said life is a deal. And by that he meant everything is on the table. And if I'm negotiating with you, I make you a couple of offers and you don't take them, you're stuck with the consequences. Iran learned that with Operation Midnight Hammer in June of last year when their nuclear weapons program was Destroyed by our B2s after the 11 day war begun by Israel with, with Iran during the course of the larger war that Israel actually had launched against it by Iran and its proxies in October of 2023. But I would point out all of this is absolutely with precedent. It's not unprecedented. It is an unprecedented level of complexity as far as I can tell. Listening to General Kaine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I was astonished by the number of moving pieces here and I'm astonished it stayed secret. Now, apparently there are reports that both the Washington Post and the New York Times had a heads up of the operation, but were requested by the Pentagon and the President not to say anything. And they didn't because it would have put our men and women in the armed services at great risk. The element of surprise was essential to grabbing the cartelista. And Mr. Maduro pleaded innocent today, right? We don't believe that. Second thing that the President said after he said life is a negotiation, life is a deal, he said on Air Force One yesterday when asked by one of our just terrific reporters what happens next, he said, that depends. Of course. That's the right answer. You know, we don't know what the regime, which has not been changed, all right, we grabbed Maduro and his wife and the ability to do that and to blink out Caracas at night and to take out their air control system and to get Special Forces in and out in two and a half hours sends a message to the acting president who is Maduro's flunky, to the interior minister. And their interior minister is not like our Doug Burgum. He's not worried about the national parks. Their interior minister is the secret police. And there's a lot of secret police in Venezuela. I'll talk with Dan Rundy about that later. What does he do? What does the head of the military do? Maduro depended upon both of them to secure power through two elections that he lost. And so he's a corrupt dictator. When the President says he took our money, he means he expropriated American assets and did not pay for them. Any sovereign country in the world can expropriate anything they want, but they have to pay for them. And we've hadwe've seen this many, many times since 1959. And Fidel, a lot of people. Expropriate assets. Iran expropriated American assets in the 1979 Iran Revolution, the one that's coming undone in real time. And I'll keep you updated throughout the course of the show as to what is happening in Iran where the protests and the riots have gone on. At least 16 people have been murdered there by the mullahs, the thugs, over the weekend, according to Reuters. I'll keep you posted on that throughout the day. But, but to go back to what the president said when it depends if Venezuela is talking to Secretary Rubio and Director Ratcliffe, who runs the CIA as well as, of course, people in the White House. Secretary Rubio is also the national security adviser. And I'll have former National Security Advisor Robert o' Brien on later in the program. Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Cotton on later in the program. If they are talking to American officials and saying, here's what we're going to do, we're not going to shoot dissidents, we're going to hold elections, Chevron can begin to upgrade all the installations that are here. We're not going to steal any more money and we're not going to kill people in the streets. And the Chavista movement, which is 20 to 30% of the population, is not going to riot and try and kill America. There are 23,000Americans in Venezuela right now. 23,000. So the word has gone forth, do not threaten or injure those Americans. And I would be worried if, of course, I had a family member. I don't. But I had a family member in one of the many industries America has in Venezuela. If I had a cruise ship in Venezuela and cruise ships do call on the islands of Venezuela, I would be worried, but only if they're morons. Becauseand they might be. I don't know that they're not. Iran has turned out to be full of morons. If they're morons, they will threaten an American because you know Donald Trump won't put up with that. The Don Road doctrine is if you kill an American, we'll kill you. Most recently, ISIS in Syria killed two American soldiers, one civilian, and we kicked the living daylights out of them for two days with airstrikes. If they threaten an American, that threat will be dealt with. That's Operation Midnight Hammer. The Don Row doctrine is pretty doggone clear. Do not kill or threaten Americans. Do not send drugs into our country. Do not send terrorists into our country, because we got a long arm, we got a military that is second to none in the world. It's so astonishing, the complexity of that operation. And unlike the Biden administration, we have the will and the ability to use the military that we are blessed with. Unlike the Obama administration, it's not all talk talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's action. After an offer to negotiate, many offers were made to Maduro. It's been widely reported now he turned them all down. He's a billionaire who can't get to his billions. His son's got a billion dollars, allegedly, according to some of the reports. I'll cover it all with people throughout the day, beginning with Bethany Schundarc right after the. That's her X handle. It's Bethany Mandel from the mom wars. Just got back from Israel. I want to know how she's reacting as an average American mom who's watching this and wondering, what's it mean for Israel? What's it mean for China? What's it mean for Russia? What's it mean for everybody who would play with the American people or their military anywhere in the world or take our people hostages? It means Donald Trump's got your number. And if he calls, answer. And listen very closely to what he says because again, to quote Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Donald Trump doesn't play games. I'm Hugh Hewitt. I'll be right back. Stay tuned.
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Hugh Hewitt
Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewlett, joined down by United States Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas. Senator Cotton is chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, as well as of the Republican Conference. Senator Cotton, welcome. Happy New Year to you. Can I start with just your reaction to Operation Absolute Resolve?
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Senator Tom Cotton
Happy New Year to you, Hugh, and to all your listeners. It was a very happy New Year achievement. Early Saturday morning, an amazing operation by our military and intelligence professionals to remind not just Nicolas Maduro, but every bad guy around the world that the long arm of American justice is long indeed. It's hard to overstate how exceptionally well executed this operation was, but that's really become kind of the hallmark of President Trump's military operations over five years in office. If you think about the raid to kill the ISIS leader in Syria, to kill Iran's terrorist mastermind in Iraq, to blow up Iran's nuclear program last June, and now to capture Nicolas Maduro, all were flawlessly executed and involved no loss of American life and greatly advanced America's national interests. This actually may be the most impressive of all when you hear how General Kaine described so many different elements of our joint force and the fact that the capturing and exfiltrating target is in some ways harder than killing one or destroying something. So kudos to all those who are involved. I don't think you can overstate what a great operation it was.
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Hugh Hewitt
Now, Senator Cotton, you are part of the Group of Eight as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, along with your House counterpart, the ranking Democrat. I think it's Mark Warner, and the ranking Democrat in the House, and the leadership of both parties in the House and the Senate. When did you first get notice that this had happened? I know you weren't warned beforehand for security reasons, but when did you first find out.
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Senator Tom Cotton
When Mrs. Cotton, who's a lighter sleeper than I, began elbowing me in the side on 3:30 Saturday morning Central time and saying, why is Marco Rubio calling you? And I said, I don't know, but.
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Hugh Hewitt
I bet it's exciting. So he used to do what you are. I mean, he used to be in the Group of Eight. He was the Chairman of the Intel Committee. Do you consider yourself timely and adequately notified by the Executive Branch of what they ought to do? Yes.
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Senator Tom Cotton
No question. You and they have kept me and my committee and my other committee, the Armed Services Committee, apprised of the operations we've had in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific all along. And I think within 24 hours. Gosh, you. Less than that, probably within maybe 12 or 16 hours. I had spoken not just to President Trump, but every man that was on stage behind him Saturday. That's his core team, the people who are the architects of this policy and who carried it out. Marco Rubio, Pete Hexess, General Dan Kane, John Ratcliffe, Stephen Miller, and spoken every single one of them before Saturday night.
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Hugh Hewitt
You.
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Senator Tom Cotton
I did not get advanced notice, you're correct. Nor would I expect to ever give advance notice about such a mission. This is an operation, as we heard from the President, General Kaine, that was heavily dependent on contingent factors like light and weather conditions in Venezuela and precise knowledge of Maduro's whereabouts at any given moment. That's not the kind of thing that you expect advance notice to Congress for. Nor, for that matter do I expect advance notice every time the executive carries out an arrest of a drug trafficker, whether it's in Venezuela or in Arkansas. Again, just in the ordinary course of affairs, that's not the kind of thing that the executive branch calls up to the legislature and gives them notice of.
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Hugh Hewitt
Senator Cotton, I the president said in his Saturday morning press conference, Congress leaks. And we know by that that sometimes political actors leak. But I also thought the Chinese and the Iranians are heavily invested in Venezuela. They probably try and monitor our electronic activity and our signals intelligence. I don't. I think that there's even a risk of leaking by people who don't intend to leak if they just say the wrong thing in the wrong cell phone. Is that part of the issue? It could be, Hugh.
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Senator Tom Cotton
And you don't even necessarily have to know what people are saying. All of a sudden. If there's a flurry of activity of, you know, calls going out to certain key congressional leaders, you can probably figure out that something must be up if you had access to that knowledge. I don't want to confirm or deny any such access, but I think it's best when you we had invested as much time and effort as our government did in tracking Maduro's movements, in putting the forces in place to affect this arrest, that there is under no circumstances do you want to risk operational security and what incredible operational security we have going on for more than four days.
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Hugh Hewitt
The other thing that's incredible is the level of unfamiliarity with special operations by our national news anchors yesterday, and Secretary Rubio spanked them all. But my question to you is when President Trump was asked on Air Force One what happens next, he said it depends, which I think is exactly the right answer. What will you be looking for from the Venezuelan regime, which is still in place, including their interior secretary minister, who is not like Doug Burgum, that's the secret police down there, head of their military and their new acting president. What do you think they ought to be doing right now?
- [17:55]
Senator Tom Cotton
It depends heavily on their actions. As Secretary Rubio said just before me on Face the Nation yesterday, we're not going to listen to what they say in speeches or press releases. We're going to or what they say to us privately. We're going to monitor actions. And until just two days ago, those folks that you just mentioned, the vice president, interior minister, the defense minister, were tied at the hip in league with Nicolas Maduro. They've been sanctioned some of them have been indicted like him. It's always possible to turn, turn over a new leaf, Hugh. We've seen it in Syria with Ahmed Al Shara, a former Al Qaeda ISIS leader. We saw it in Libya with Gaddafi after he came in from the cold when we scared him straight after the Iraq invasion. But those cases involved concrete, clear concessions to U.S. interests or a longer track record of moving in the right direction. We don't have either of that yet in Venezuela. So the Venezuelans need to take certain actions, I would say, to prove that it's going to be a new day in Venezuela. They could release all political prisoners today, kick out the worst of the worst, the Iranians, the Cubans, Hezbollah, Hamas and so forth. They could welcome back the opposition and guarantee their safe passage into Venezuela. These are all actions that could be taken immediately that don't prejudice any future actions on the nature of Venezuelan's government, who's going to lead it when there might be elections, so on and so forth. Those are things they can do to prove that they got the message that it needs to be a new day in Venezuela. And as President Trump said, if they don't, well, he reserves the right to do something to Rodriguez, anyone else, just like we did to Maduro. It may be worse.
- [19:45]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, last question. Senator Cotton, the president has threatened the Iranian regime if they murder dissidents in the streets. What ought they to be thinking right now if they're the mullahs or the IRGC or the head of the army? We got one minute.
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Senator Tom Cotton
Well, I mean, Hugh, between the president's threat, which I welcomed very much, to stand up to the Iranian regime if they massacre their citizens, protesting unlike what Barack Obama did in 2009, you could add their great concern when they saw the American military swoop into Venezuela. And now Venezuela is an illegitimate dictator. So I imagine they're a little antsy in Tehran today. And I would urge them, as Secretary Rubio said, to take Donald Trump seriously. Don't believe he's bluffing, don't believe that you can play him in this, and don't massacre your own citizens, affect the changes they're demanding.
- [20:38]
Hugh Hewitt
Senator Tom Cotton, Chairman of the Intel Committee, thank you for joining me on a busy day for you and I appreciate the time. Happy New Year to everyone. And if you get those calls in the middle of the night, try and answer them and let your wife sleep. Thank you, Senator. I'll be right back. America, take it. Evening, Grace. America, I'm Hugh Hewlett, joined by Ambassador Robert C. O', Brien, formerly National Security advisor to President Trump in term one of Donald Trump's first term as president. He is now the chairman of American Global Security, and I'm so glad to have him on after this incredible weekend. Ambassador o', Brien, welcome. Let me begin with getting your reaction to Operation Absolute Resolve.
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
Well, Hugh, good to see you and Happy New Year to you as well, my friend. It was an exquisite operation performed brilliantly by, first of all our choir professionals, the CIA guys who were prep the battlefield. And we're down in the, in the jungles and the urban areas of Venezuela for months prepping this thing, getting the intel right, laying the groundwork for, you know, traitors and treasoners, treasonous Venezuelans and patriotic Venezuelans who wanted to see the regime change, to cooperate with our guys. And then Delta Force, assisted by the 160th Airborne or Air Assault Regiment and Aviation Regiment, the Night Stalkers, getting down there into Venezuela in the middle of the night and Holly Maduro out of his fortress and bringing him to justice in America. Just 100% exquisite operation from start to finish.
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Hugh Hewitt
Do you believe it is legal to have done this?
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
100%. There's a warrant out for his arrest. He was indicted for drugs. This is not there were a lot of political reasons to do it, but this was a strict law enforcement effort backed by the Biden administration when they were in office, and it was 100% legal. He's now facing justice and look, he's pretty lucky to be in a New York court. New York courts have been very generous to Donald Trump over the past few years. So he's got a fair and impartial Clinton appointed judge and we'll see how the case goes. But it looks pretty rock solid to me.
- [22:58]
Hugh Hewitt
Asked on Air Force One yesterday what happens next? President Trump answered, that depends. I think that made a lot of sense to me. But what do you think it depends upon most, Ambassador o'? Brien?
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
Well, it depends on how Delsey Rodriguez and the Chavistas decided to play this. Look, they're a political party in Venezuela. They have some support, maybe 20, 30% of the votes in Venezuela. They can either continue to participate in the process, have free and fair elections and maybe have a role in the future, or they can be de baasified like they would. Like the Saddam Hussein loyalists were in Iraq. And I think what President Trump and Marco Rubio and John Radcliffe are looking at is. And Pete Hague, Seth, is what happened in Iraq when we disbanded the Iraqi army and disbanded the government, and that was chaos. And ISIS arose. And I think they're looking for a reasonable transition. There's a very well formed opposition in Venezuela led by Edmundo Gonzalez, who was elected president with like two thirds of the vote just last year. He's in Spain. He'll be coming back. You've got Moreno Machado, the Nobel Prize winner. You've got Juan Guaido, who is the acting president and the former president of the National Assembly. He's in exile. He'll be coming back to Venezuela. So there's a very strong opposition. I'm sure they'll enter into negotiations with Delsey Rodriguez, the current vice president, and we'll have a transition government and then get on to the business of having free and fair elections.
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Hugh Hewitt
Now, the Minister of the Interior and the head of their military have not changed, but I assume they are involved in conversations with Secretary Rubio and perhaps the agency. Is that your assumption as well?
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
That's my assumption. They'll be doing those negotiations in Spanish. Marco speaks fluent Spanish. He'll be negotiating with him. He knows the region very well. He's got a great team of people, including folks like Marisa Clavercaron, who used to work for me, was the envoy for the region for a while. And they'll take care of business. And look, they understand what happened to Maduro. None of those guys want to be seen in a New York courtroom. So they've got an opportunity here to play ball and cooperate and potentially preserve a political future for themselves in Venezuela.
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Hugh Hewitt
Secretary Rubio on Saturday in that extraordinary press conference said, president Trump does not play games, end of quote. You worked with him closely for two years as his NSA at the end of his first term. How do you read, President Trump does not play games.
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
Well, Marco is exactly right. He's got my own position as well as being Secretary of State, the first person since Henry Kissinger to hold both offices. And poor guy's working his, his tail off, but he's doing a great job. And, and what he means is this is Donald Trump always presents the parties with a fair deal. He, he's a incredibly reasonable, pragmatic man. And in, in this case, he offered Maduro several off ramps. He could have gone to Moscow or Beijing or Havana and left and, you know, left on his own terms and turned things over. He decided not to decide to play a tough guy with Donald Trump. And he looked, he thought he could leverage us with his illegal immigration, sending Trinity Aragua guys to the United States, sending cocaine and fentanyl to undermine us, inviting Hezbollah and Iran and China into the region. He thought all those things would give him an advantage. They didn't. Donald Trump doesn't play games, and he called his bluff and he, Maduro is now in a Brooklyn jail and a New York City courthouse. And so, you know, he, Trump gave him a lot of opportunities. He didn't take them. And look, this is what happens. It happened to Baghdadi, it happened to Soleimani, happened to a lot of others. And when they, they, they didn't take the deal, they lost the ayatollahs a few months ago with the Operation Midnight Hammer, with the nuclear program. Trump said, look, open your facilities to full inspections and, you know, stop making a bomb and we'll, we'll leave you alone. And the Iranians gave us a middle finger and they saw what happened.
- [27:20]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, the most extraordinary statement in a press conference I listened to it live is there's no transcript, so I'm doing this from memory. He either said, President Trump either said all of life is a deal or life is a deal, meaning everything is a negotiation. Is that the essence of Donald Trump right there?
- [27:42]
Ambassador Robert O'Brien
Very, very much so. I mean, look, he's, and again, it goes back to my comment. He's not an ideologue. He's a very pragmatic guy. He wants, his only ideology is a deep love for America. Donald Trump loves America like nobody I've ever met. Kind of, kind of like Ronald Reagan. And he wants what's best for this country. And he'll, he'll cut deals. I mean, look, he's, he's shown that. He's shown, he's been, he was very reasonable with Kim Jong Un, he was very reasonable with Xi Jinping recently. He's, he's offered Putin a great deal, and Putin's refusing that deal, which is kind of surprising to me. So he, he's, he's always willing to make a deal for peace and in the killing. And he, like, he.
- [28:25]
Dan Rundy
War, war.
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
And these, these raids are a last option for President Trump. He would far prefer doing the deal and, and doing things peacefully, and I think we've seen that. But if you push them too far, like Maduro did, you know, he found out what happens.
- [28:40]
Hugh Hewitt
I will come back to Venezuela in a moment. But the president has also made a threat to Iran that if they kill protesters and 14 people are alleged to be dead, according to Reuters over the weekend, as Iran convulses with protests, he will take action. What should the Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC understand about that threat?
- [29:03]
Ambassador Robert O'Brien
Well, look, I saw today that the Ayatollah is already making plans to go to Moscow if President Trump enforces his edict. So that's probably good planning. Surprisingly, you know, the Iranian people, who should be wealthy and doing well, have had a very difficult time economically. They can't get water, they're lacking foodstuffs. They said The Ayatollah's got $95 billion stored away that he's going to take with him to Russia, which is crazy. But. So I think the Ayatollah and the moles are already making plans to get out of Dodge if they crack down these protesters, which they apparently are doing. There was some open source information in the news. I don't know what it means that a lot of the 160th Aviation Regiment, the Night Stalkers, were moving to England and moving to Europe, which they did before the last attack on Iran. You know, we'll have to see what happens. But I don't think the President's going to sit back and watch innocent people be killed like Obama did in the Green Revolution when he sided with the moles and the Ayatollahs over the people of Iran. I think the President would rather side with the people of Iran over the moles and ayatollahs.
- [30:14]
Hugh Hewitt
Okay, let me go back to Venezuela. The last American oil company operating there is Chevron. The others were expropriated and they were screwed. They won international arbitration awards. It is a country's right to expropriate industry, but they have to pay for them and they've been screwed. What do you think Chevron ought to do? Ought it to be standing by and willing to rebuild that what is basically rusted out 25 years? We got a minute left, Ambassador.
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Ambassador Robert O'Brien
100%. Chevron CEO Worth is a very smart guy. Chevron's hung in there under very difficult circumstances. A lot of people criticize him for it. I was actually in favor of Chevron staying there and keeping American presence, hoping that something like this would happen so Chevron can be the lead. And I think the other American oil companies should get in there. But again, this is not to take the oil from the Venezuelan people. This is to produce the oil from the Venezuelan people, make Venezuela great again, make Venezuela rich again, make the people healthy, wealthy and, and happy. And at the same time, give the American oil companies a chance to, to produce and make a profit as well on the, on the contracts that they own.
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Hugh Hewitt
Ambassador Robert o', Brien, former National Security Adviser to Donald Trump, still a member of the Presidential Advisory Board on Intel and the Chairman of American Global strategies. Thanks for spending time with us on a very busy news day. I know you're in demand everywhere and I appreciate the time. Old friend. Ambassador ROBERT o', Brien, thank you. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. There are two stories going on in the world that are major, of course, the United States capture of Maduro and his spouse. And in Iran, there are convulsions on the streets. To talk about the latter and maybe a comment on the former, I'm joined by Dr. Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the United States. He's also the founder of the Israel advocacy group. Dr. Oren, welcome. Let's start with the latter. How do you react to the remarkable operation conducted by the US Military on the wee hours of the morning, Saturday.
- [32:08]
Dr. Michael Oren
Morning from an Israeli perspective? Hugh, great news. That's great news. Listen, generally speaking, Israel has an interest in having an America that is willing and able to project power around the world, even if I would even prefer a president who is critical of Israel but willing to project power over a president who maybe loves us and unwilling to project power because that's America's interest. And I think it's not just that Israel's interest also not just Israel's interest. It's every ally of the United States, Germany, South Korea, Japan, we all want that strong cuff projecting America. And that's what we've seen now in Venezuela. And it's and that increases that enhances the security of all of us.
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Hugh Hewitt
All of us.
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Dr. Michael Oren
And then more specifically, Maduro is a great friend of Iran, a great friend. Hezbollah. Hezbollah operates out of Venezuela. It operates its drug trade out of Venezuela. It's a huge blow to Iran and it sends an unequivocal message to our common enemies, whether it be Mr. Petro in Colombia, the Cubans, everyone's on notice now. You don't mess with this guy. And Mr. Trump, meaning and, and that redounds to our benefit. It certainly does. And it directly related to what's happening in Iran today.
- [33:27]
Hugh Hewitt
Well, let's go to what's happening in Iran. I am hungry for news and the only place I can find it about up to date news in Iran is actually at the Times of Israel and even it's a little bit behind apn. Reuters gives us a detail here and a detail there. What sort of a crisis is this for the regime in Iran that they're going through right now?
- [33:47]
Dr. Michael Oren
I think we have to distinguish between what's going on in Iran in the last few days, what's going to happen the next couple of days and what's happening in the longer term in Iran. Okay, this is. We've seen this film before where people come to the streets and the Iran regime has an MO where they let people sort of blow off steam for a week or two. A couple dozen people may get killed, but finally they're going to come down like the proverbial ton of bricks on this revolt. That's the way it was in 2009, that's the way it was in 2022 with the women's revolt, which was very brutally suppressed. And we're going to see because this regime has tremendous power at its disposal. It has the irgc, the Revolutionary Guards. It has the army. It has a group of thugs called the Basij who come out with baseball bats and beat these people over the head. They haven't. They haven't come out with their big guns yet. And they're not going to go quietly into that dark night. I guarantee you there's a question whether they may want to pick a fight with us in order to detract attention from their domestic woes, maybe try rally the people. That's a possibility, and we have to be very vigilant about that. Okay, so what's happening? They may succeed in suppressing this revolt for a week or two, but the fact of the matter is the longevity of this regime is now very much in question. They have been humiliated by Israel, humiliated by the United States. They have no electricity. They have no water. Their currency. The reality has lost 60% of its worth. Women are no longer wearing head coverings in the street. Its days are numbered one way or the other. And Iran's not coming back. They've now just lost this ally in Venezuela. They've lost Syria, they've lost Lebanon, they've lost Gaza.
- [35:29]
Hugh Hewitt
What's left?
- [35:30]
Dr. Michael Oren
What's left for this regime? Not much. And the quicker it goes, the better.
- [35:34]
Hugh Hewitt
So how do you believe the mullahs and the IRGC understand President Trump's threat to intervene if they kill protesters? What do they hear when they hear that?
- [35:44]
Dr. Michael Oren
I think they not just hear it. They saw what happened with Maduro and they're going to take it very, very seriously. And, you know, if I were them, I'd be making my travel plans to Moscow now.
- [35:58]
Hugh Hewitt
There is a element in the west, especially in the United States, arguing that we'll make it worse if we get involved in Iran in any way. For example, strikes on the IRGC or the Basij headquarters or if Israel does the same thing. What's your response to that? You only make it Worse crowd.
- [36:18]
Dr. Michael Oren
You know, it's like that bag, you know, there was an old Holocaust joke, quote unquote, about two Jews about to be executed by the ss, and the SS officer is making fun of them and says, you know, any last words? And one Jew raises his hand, the other Jew puts the hand down and says, well, hey, we're in enough trouble as it is, okay? And it's true of many things, we're in that trouble as it is. Generally speaking, I think it's good that Israel keeps a low profile for the time being. We can help this the revolt quietly. But the United States is a superpower. United States can wield its power in ways that even we can't. And if it would bring about the fall of this regime by some kinetic intervention, I think that's certainly within the power and the proven record of this president.
- [37:11]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, they've executed almost 2,000 people since the 12 day war. Do you think they are afraid of people within the ordinary Iranian army, which is separate from the IRGC or even the IRGC sighting? Maybe Khomeini and the mullahs are not worth the trouble. We want to keep our thing going.
- [37:30]
Dr. Michael Oren
I think after last summer, they would be foolish not to be afraid because Israel knew where those scientists were living. They knew where senior commanders were living. They knew where so many of the rockets were, were situated. The degree to which Israeli intelligence is anything of American intelligence had penetrated Iranian leadership and the Iranian military and the IRGC is certainly reason for all of those mullahs to be shaken in their boots.
- [37:58]
Hugh Hewitt
All right, last question. Ambassador Oren, what did you make of the Netanyahu Trump meetings last week? How were they received in Israel?
- [38:06]
Dr. Michael Oren
Well, they're very well, listen, I was personally surprised. I thought that the President would be more constrained given what's happened inside his own White House, inside the MAGA movement with the, you know, the criticism that he has not lived up to what he had promised to his voters, that to be put America first, as if, you know, getting rid of a brutal drug dictator or even helping Christians in Nigeria who are threatened with Islamic extremists is not putting America first. But leave that aside. I thought he'd be more constrained and he surprised me. He kept that credible military threat on the table. And, Hugh, that is the key to everything that's going to happen in the Middle east from now on. Keeping that credible military thread on the table means that Israel could have peace with Lebanon, peace with Syria, who knows, maybe peace with Iran and certainly peace with Saudi Arabia. We're in A region where people respect strength and that's what America is showing here. And through strength we'll get these.
- [39:00]
Hugh Hewitt
Dr. Michael Oren, thank you for joining me. Follow him at Dr. Michael Oren, Dr. Michael Oren on X, the Israel advocacy group founded by Dr. Oren. Also worth your attention online. Don't go anywhere, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Morning, Lauren. Evening, Grace. America. From the relief stack, Relief Factor Studio West, I'm Hugh Hewitt. It was like the Winter Olympic of bad takes in the aftermath of the American Operation Absolute Resolve that got Nicolas Maduro and his spouse out of the military base in the middle of Caracas and to the United States where he's under arrest and awaiting trial in Brooklyn. And the bad takes mounted up like so many books in a library. Luckily, I am friends with Dan Rundy. Dan is a senior fellow at the center for Strategic and International Studies. He's the author of the wonderful book the American Imperative. And by the time it was noon on the West Coast, I had gotten an eight page briefing paper on Venezuela from Dan on Saturday morning. It makes it sound like he's the desk officer for the agency for Venezuela. He's not. He's just actually pretty smart about South America. Dan, welcome. When last week we met at our favorite watering hole in downtown D.C. in December, you gave me the rundown of South America. The good guys are Argentina, Bolivia and Chile. Right now, the bad guys are Cuba, always Nicaragua and Venezuela. So with that taking off point, what do you make of what happened on Saturday in the early morning hours of Saturday and what questions are still on the table? You got a lot of Runway. Run with it, Mr. Rundy.
- [40:35]
Dan Rundy
Thanks a lot. You. I'm happy to be here. It was like a late Christmas present to see what happened to Nicolas Maduro and his wife. These are very bad people. You know, Venezuela is a complicated place and a lot of people can justifiably talk about all the complexities of Venezuela. But President Trump, with this amazing action, with the help of our amazing military and our amazing intelligence services, cut the Gordian knot, cut the complexity and made it simple again. He's created a new scenario for us to operate from. He wants five things from Venezuela. He wants us to stop. He wants Venezuela to stop the drugs. He wants Venezuela to cooperate with justice. He wants to see the country stabilized. He wants the normal energy operation, normal energy policy in Venezuela. It's been run in a crazy way. And President Trump wants Venezuela to stop exporting chaos. I was so happy to see this happen. And I thought the operation that was carried out over the weekend was one of the best things that I've heard in a long time. I mean, it's been a year of a lot of good news in foreign policy, whether it's the operation in Iran and now what's happened in Venezuela. And so I think we owe a big debt of gratitude to President Trump, our amazing military and our amazing intelligence service, and he has created new leverage on the remaining Maduro regime in the hands of Delsey Rodriguez to say, look, we've got the top two capos of your mafia state under arrest and we're also holding your, your oil exports under embargo until you make some changes. So he's got a lot of leverage. And so I think it's, it's really an exciting moment. I'm really gratified to see where we are.
- [42:38]
Hugh Hewitt
Dan Rundy, let's, let's ground this in the reality of the complexity that you mentioned at the beginning. You immediately told me, Hugh, remember, there are 23,000Americans there. Do you think anyone would dare touch an American in Venezuela right now from the security services? Would they not be asking to get blown up?
- [42:58]
Dan Rundy
They're asking to get blown up. We talk a lot in the foreign policy world about resetting deterrence. President Trump with this action, really, reset deterrence. That's just a fancy way of saying you better not mess with us and that there's a credible threat. After what happened over the weekend, there's a credible threat. So if they messed with American citizen Venezuela, it would not be a really good idea for the security services to do that. It is a complicated place. It's a divided society in many ways.
- [43:32]
Hugh Hewitt
Did you freeze on me there, Dan?
- [43:35]
Dan Rundy
Yeah, certainly, at the very least, right. What we want to see is certainly behavioral change. You know, I know that Senator Cotton was on the show earlier today and he talked about this on the Sunday shows, that we want to have behavioral change in Venezuela. Like I said, stop the drugs, cooperate with justice, behave like a normal country. And that, you know, Venezuela used to be a really wealthy place. It was wealthier than places like Chile 40 years ago. It was a stable place. It was an ally of the United States. And under Chavez and Maduro became a partner of Iran and let in Hezbollah, partnered with the Russians and the Chinese Communist Party. These are, and you know, had this very mobbed up relationship with the Cubans. It's a very bad place.
- [44:25]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, dad Rundy, one of your data points you sent me, people should have friends like Dan so you don't have to talk through your Hat I got this long memo from Dan on things I needed to know. No, it was great. I knew what I was talking about on Kill Me Last night because I'd read it. I had no idea that between 20 and 30% of the population actually consider themselves Chavistas. Who are they and why are they Chavistas?
- [44:52]
Dan Rundy
You know, you. I made a trip to Venezuela in 2012, and one of the things that shocked me this was during right after Hugo Chavez had died. And what shocked me when I was in Caracas, Venezuela, was that you drove around and you did see some signs of support for the Chavez Maduro regime. It's not the majority of the people, but there is a percentage of the people in the country that support this government. Some of it is because they give them jobs, some of it is because they give them money. Some of it is because there are poor parts of Venezuela that maybe had been overlooked in the past, and this government had done given them free stuff, if I can put it that way. And it sort of bought what allegiance, if I can put it that way. So there is a percentage of the population that does support the regime. It's not a majority. It's probably 20%. It could be as high as 30%. Nobody knows because it's an authoritarian regime. But with President Trump's action over the weekend, we have the opportunity to have a different future for Venezuela. The vast majority of people don't want this government. And the interior minister, if you had. There were elections. Sorry, go ahead.
- [46:10]
Hugh Hewitt
The interior minister there is not like Doug Burgum. Right. He's not taking care of the national parks. He's the secret police. What are the odds?
- [46:18]
Dan Rundy
Yeah, there's a whole series. Yeah, there's a whole authoritarian regime set up. There's the military, there's the secret police. They also have armed citizens that are aligned with the government that are. These are sort of like your local neighborhood militia, if I can put it that way. That's on the payroll of the Chavistas. So it's a police state. It's an authoritarian regime. They have repressed human rights. They have cheated on elections multiple times, including most recently in 2024. The person who won the election, Edmundo Gonzalez, was not allowed to take possession of the government. So you've had. This is a very. This is a thug, thug regime. It's a narco terrorist state.
- [47:10]
Hugh Hewitt
What do the other countries of South America think about this? Obviously, Colombia has gone left, Bolivia has gone right. Chile's gone right. Argentina's gone right. But within the region, what do they think about swooping in and grabbing the top narco and then getting out?
- [47:28]
Dan Rundy
So most of the countries, how about this? Many of the countries in the region, our allies, are relieved to see this happen. Argentina has supported this and you've had Paraguay and Bolivia have supported this. So serious countries with serious leaders have gotten behind President Trump's action. You have a crazy person in the President Petro of Colombia who's insane now, thankfully you. He is leaving later this year. There are elections in Colombia. He can't run again. I do think him having a fight with President Trump helps the cuckoo left candidate who's trying to replace him. And so we need to be a little bit careful of kind of playing into President Petro of Colombia's getting into fights with President Trump because there's some percentage of the Colombian population that, you know, that supports crazy President Petro. But he's, you know, he's a substance abuser. He's a person makes a lot of bad personal choices. He's nuts. So he's not a serious person. Unfortunately, the President of Mexico has also chosen to take a similar position to President Petro. But overall, it's, you know, a collection of loser countries like Cuba and Nicaragua who, you know, who've screamed. But really, I think there's significant relief if you look at the joy in the faces and you've seen dancing in the streets by ordinary Venezuelans. Venezuelans. Eight million Venezuelans. You had to flee the country because of the mismanagement of this narco state in Venezuela. They've all left. It's one of the largest refugee populations in the world, are Venezuelans who've left Venezuela in the last 20 years because this wealthy country was driven into the ground by this mafia group financed by drugs.
- [49:25]
Hugh Hewitt
All right, when we come back, Dan Rundy's gonna stay here and we're gonna talk about the three Cs, Cuba, China and Chevron. And Dan's going to have a memo ready on the implications for each of those three. And he's going to have advice for Chevron on what to do next. And then he's going to tell us about Nicaragua in Cuba. Don't go anywhere, America. Rundy knows what he's talking about, which is unlike about 95% of the people I've seen on media this weekend. So stay tuned to the Hugh Hewitt Show. Welcome back, America. I'm Hewitt. Dan Rundy is my guest, senior fellow at the center for Strategic and International studies in Washington, D.C. and one of the few subject matter experts on Central and South America, Dan. A few years ago, when Secretary Pompeo would hold his Madison dinners, the fetching Mrs. Hewitt and I went and I sat across from Mike Wirth, who's the CEO of Chevron. And I just thought, this is the smartest guy in the room, other than not named Pompeo. If you're running Chevron, you've obviously got subject matter experts and country experts. What are they to be considering right now in the aftermath of the Maduro expatriation to the United States.
- [50:37]
Dan Rundy
So Chevron is the only American company operating currently in Venezuela. It's been granted a special license by the previously the Biden administration as well as the current Trump administration. Other American oil companies like ExxonMobil have their assets nationalized in the last 15 years. And so it's been a risky and complicated arrangement for Chevron to operate in Venezuela. And there have been a number of reasons for that, given what happened over the last three days. Chevron's in a unique first mover advantage because it has assets on the ground and has maintained a relationship. It hasn't broken its relationship either with the United States or with Venezuela. Now, the high water mark you of oil production in Venezuela was 1996, and I think it was 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. And there's lots of what's the price of oil? And a whole bunch of other things that would be needed. Right now it's about a half a million to a million barrels of oil a day is sort of what they estimate for Venezuela. So to get back to that kind of level is an enormous amount of money. And you'd need, there's a bunch of, there's a whole complicated string of things you'd have to unpack, like who controls these assets? Did they promise these assets as part of loans to people? Is it safe to invest in the country, Is there some level of security, et cetera, et cetera. But assuming you, you could get all of those things that the estimates are $50 billion, $100 billion, nobody really knows. And it could take five or 10 years to get back to the levels of production, back to the high watermark of oil production in Venezuela. So could Chevron do something like that? Potentially, yes. They spend about $20 billion a year on big investment projects. They have a number of big investment projects in places like Kazakhstan and Angola. They do a lot of energy investing in the United States, thanks to fracking and the energy miracle we've seen in the last 10 years in America with fracking. And we owe Chevron A debt of thanks for all the. They're one of the folks that have helped make fracking possible for America.
- [52:58]
Hugh Hewitt
So if they're doing a whiteboard and no doubt they've been whiteboarding exercise all weekend. I've been at CSIS when Dan Rundy has run one of these seminars, and I'm astonished by what kind of factors they have to take into account before they make another dollar's worth of investment. What's on their whiteboard up in Northern California, where Chevron is? I don't think they've left yet. What's on their whiteboard edition?
- [53:23]
Dan Rundy
I think there's several things. One would be, is what, you know, what they first want to talk to the United States government. Say, are we, you know, is this something you want, you know, that, you know, to make sure that they're following the law and they want to obey the rules of the United States? They always, you know, they're, they're a good citizen, they're a great company, then they'd want to make sure that if they invested that they weren't going to have their assets nationalized later. What kind of guarantees are they for that? And what kind of government are we talking about?
- [53:53]
Hugh Hewitt
And then.
- [53:55]
Dan Rundy
You know, so I think there's any number of different questions like that. I mean, there's a lot of the debt in. There's a lot of debt in Venezuela. Some of that debt is associated with the energy business, whether it's to suppliers or whether it's saying, hey, please lend, please government of China, lend me some money and I'll use as collateral this oil well or the assets in this oil field. So they'd want to understand like, well, if I drill in this oil field, is this, is the, are the assets already kind of spoken for in some loan that they've loaned to China? So there's a whole series of complicated things like that.
- [54:36]
Hugh Hewitt
Well, who is going to be driving the day to day bus on this over at the Department of State and at the Central Intelligence Agency. Do you expect that there is a task force on what I'll call normalization of relations with a bad actor regime? That's what we're trying to. It's like Libya following the invasion of Iraq. They opened their kimono and then we went and got their WMD and we did a deal and was very secret. Where will that be run out of? Dan? Who's going to have the lead? I know Secretary Rubio can't do everything. He's running everything right now.
- [55:07]
Dan Rundy
But no, Secretary Rubio can't do everything. But I expect this is going to largely fall to the Department of State, but there'll be an interagency team. I also think what's important you is I think all of the folks in the Trump administration are cognizant of the experience of Iraq, which I was supportive of the US Invasion of Iraq and I supported what President Bush did. But I think that I may be perhaps in the minority, but I would say at this point, but I would say that there were. I think many people saw it as a cautionary tale. So I don't think we want to get. I think they're seeking not. They're trying to entice and work with the government that is currently in place to try and do behavioral change on a number of fronts. Stop the drugs, as I said earlier, cooperate with justice, stabilize the country, normalize the energy sector. And so I think part of it is going to be working, trying to work with the existing illegitimate government, if we can put it that way, in place. My hope and expectation is that this is a. They've been using the word transition, that this is ultimately a transition government, and that over the next period of time, maybe over the next six to 12 months, we either have new, hopefully new elections and the good guys win. You know, ultimately, I think Edmundo Gonzalez, who's the, who should be the rightful president of Venezuela, and Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize, who should be the rightful vice president of Venezuela, will get a chance to run again and that we give a chance for the Venezuelan people to have real free and fair elections as a result of what President Trump did over the weekend. And as a result, we have a government that, that's a legitimate government that we can actually work with. That would be my hope. But that may be six or 12 months down the road every time we have to work with these thugs.
- [57:04]
Hugh Hewitt
You mentioned to me that there are a lot of guns in Venezuela in the hands of a lot of different.
- [57:09]
Dan Rundy
People, a lot of guns.
- [57:11]
Hugh Hewitt
So we don't want to send a bunch of Americans in there with guns because they become targets like they did in the Sunni Triangle after the invasion of Iraq and we weren't ready for it. Do you expect the internal security services there to turn over a leap? Is that the best case scenario, that they talk to each other? They don't want to end up in a Brooklyn jail.
- [57:32]
Dan Rundy
No. Right, exactly. I think they saw what happened to their head capo, and I think they're thinking, hmm, maybe I don't want to get Droned or I don't want to have door kickers come for me in the middle of the night. I do think that's an incentive and it's a way of which to concentrate the mind on behavioral change. You've heard this over the last several days from supporters of the administration and I'm very supportive of what the administration did. I thought this was phenomenal, is we want to have behavioral change with this admin. With this regime, with this, with these really bad actors. Now do I think we want these people to be in power forever? No, we want these ultimately we'd like to see, I think we ought to want to see these people go and to have a return to the kind of Venezuela that we had 40 years ago, which was a stable process, prosperous country and ally of the United States that wasn't exporting chaos and wasn't exporting drugs.
- [58:29]
Hugh Hewitt
I'll be right back with Dan. Randy, we turn to Cuba next and then China and we're leaving Iran to decide I think today. But don't go anywhere because Rundy actually knows what he's talking about and that's very rare in media today on the Venezuelan talking as I've seen this weekend. Stay tuned. Welcome back America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Blessed to have Dan running Wendy with me, senior adviser at the CSIS, one of the keystone think tanks of Washington D.C. and he's the author of the book the American Imperative, which is really a remarkably excellent book. Dan, let's talk about Cuba. Secretary Rubio mentioned it in passing that it's run by semi incoherent 93 year old Raul Castro and a current dictator. They get their energy from Venezuela. Their security services didn't prove to be very good. What does this mean for Cuba?
- [59:26]
Dan Rundy
So Cuba used to get a lot of subsidies from the Soviet Union and when the Soviet Union fell there was like a 10 year period where they didn't get any help from really anybody and they were in deep, deep trouble. Then Chavez showed up and bailed out Cuba for about 20 years. And as time has gone on because the Chavistas and Maduro folks have mismanaged their economy and driven their economy into ground, they had less and less oil to throw, free oil to throw around, subsidized oil to throw around. And then with sanctions that the US has imposed, including and especially with the Trump administration, it's been even harder and harder to get discounted free oil, even if there was any to give out from Venezuela to Cuba. So they, they have a broken economy. Thankfully Fidel Castro is Dead. And I think Raul Castro is also dead. It's run by a guy named Diaz Canel, who's sort of like their chosen thug communist leader. This guy Diaz Canal recognize that they're in deep trouble in Cuba economically. They've had a drop in tourism. They don't have the kinds of. They have a broken, fake, failed socialist economy because socialism doesn't work as, you know, you. And so they have had an ideological and security partnership. So the Cubans provided bodyguards to Maduro. And I think you saw that the Cubans are having two official days of mourning because they recognize that our armed forces killed 32 of their security.
- [61:04]
Hugh Hewitt
We've got a. You're back, Dan. Go ahead.
- [61:08]
Dan Rundy
Yeah, sorry. Can you hear me?
- [61:09]
Hugh Hewitt
Yep. Go ahead.
- [61:11]
Dan Rundy
Yeah, just that you know that Cuba, Cuba and Venezuela have had an enmeshed relationship for 25 years. Venezuela has ran out of oil to give them. As Venezuela's run out of oil to give them. Cuba's in deeper and deeper economic trouble because Venezuela was sort of Cuba's sugar daddy for a long time. And in Cuba, in return provided security and intelligence services to Venezuela. And as you saw the 32 bodyguards or security folks from Cuba that were killed by our armed forces because they were protecting Maduro, it says a lot. So I think hopefully Cuba's on its last legs. And can you imagine you if in the next 12 months we had a. Some kind of state, we have a stable transition to something a heck of a lot better in Venezuela. We have the mullahs leave town in Tehran. And sometime in the next 24 months, God willing, the bad guys exit stage left in Cuba all because of the actions of President Trump. It's amazing.
- [62:17]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, with the embargo that is there, do you expect the United States Navy to maintain its armada and to continue to attempt to embargo the export of hot oil from Venezuela?
- [62:34]
Dan Rundy
Certainly. I mean, President Trump is always thinking about leverage. And so you heard Secretary Rubio talk about that they're going to continue to. You just as they have the illegitimate leader Maduro and his and the first lady, both indicted criminals. Right. Basically both indicted subjects. That. That's one form of leverage is to have these two thugs in Brooklyn to have an embargo on the energy is also another formal leverage that we have over this illegitimate thug regime. So, absolutely, I expect now whether or not that aircraft carry. And I know you, you and your listeners have become very educated on, on the Navy because of. I'm, I'm a longtime listener of your show that, you know, you've had a lot of naval experts on your show. At some point, the aircraft carrier will probably have to go back into port, I don't know, sometime maybe in the spring. But we have a lot of military assets in the Caribbean and we're using assets like the, you know, air airfields in Puerto Rico, etc. And so I think we're going to continue to have all the assets that we need, whether it's an aircraft carrier, else, others to, to maintain leverage on the, on energy. I don't expect us to release that anytime soon because it's a, it's, it's a form of leverage and President Trump likes using leverage strategically.
- [63:59]
Hugh Hewitt
Do you think, dan, we got 30 seconds and then we'll come back and talk about China. That the president will name the equivalent of the fellow we sent to Iraq in 2003 whose name is escaping Merry Bremer. Right.
- [64:12]
Dan Rundy
Do you expect cpa?
- [64:13]
Hugh Hewitt
Do you expect one of these sort of super beer cars?
- [64:17]
Dan Rundy
No, no, no, I don't. Because, because I think what they're trying to do is, if I can use the term, empower the current thug leaders to do the right thing and trying to use behavior change.
- [64:30]
Hugh Hewitt
Oh, stand by. One more segment coming up. Don't go anywhere. Rundy is on tap for one more segment on the Hugh Hewitt Show. Welcome back, America. It's my final segment with Dan Rundy, senior fellow at the center for Strategic International Studies in Washington, D.C. author of the book the American Imperative. Dan, it turns out China gets about 4 to 5% of its oil, a very specific kind of oil from Venezuela, and it's refined by independent refiners in China called teapots. And it's used in heavy construction that's now going to stop. What do you expect the Chinese reaction to this to be and what kind of impact will it have on China?
- [65:12]
Dan Rundy
Well, you've got a really thoughtful audience, but I was surprised to hear this and maybe your audience will be surprised to hear this. I was talking to someone in preparation for this session talking about China. And it occurred to my friend, and I agree with my friend, that because China sees the world, they're the Middle Kingdom. People have heard that expression that they're the center of the world. And they sent a delegation, a senior ambassador, to visit Maduro, I think like six hours or 12 hours before there's a photo op of him receiving this delegation. Six or 12 hours before they were still in their beds. And they couldn't, they couldn't mobilize or do anything during this time. And so I would not be surprised if the Chinese thought the Americans, quote unquote, did this, especially around the visit of our high level delegation. Now I know that sounds crazy, but, but I can tell you that the way they look at the world and they see themselves as the world revolves around them, that we somehow did this as a signal to them. Now there is some truth to that in the sense that they buy a lot of oil. They buy some oil from Venezuela. The oil from Venezuela is this grungy dirty crude. It's hard to process, as you were describing. And they also have lent ton of money to Venezuela, some of it. They had hoped that Venezuela might be part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Your, your listeners know that China's got this big initiative to build roads and infrastructure all over the world. And instead they've had, they've gotten, they're getting less, buying less oil from Venezuela. The Venezuelans owe them some, something on the orders of magnitude of something like $40 billion. It's going to be hard for them to pay the Chinese back. And we were talking earlier in the, in the segment about, okay, under what circumstances will people invest in Venezuela? One of the things we got to sort out is like how much debt does Venezuela currently have and a lot of it's owed to China and will the current debtors be willing to take what's called a haircut and reduce some of the amount of debt that they have or instead of paying back the debt in 2030, be willing to pay the debt, having the debt paid back in 2050 so that the amount of payments drops. So China's got a debt problem with Venezuela. China wants to buy oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia because they don't. If they ever wanted to invade Taiwan, they want to have a series of sources of supply that circumvent global sanctions on oil. And so Venezuela is one of their sources of supply that was sort of call it semi sanction free if you will, if they ever. And so losing the Venezuelan oil is a headache for them. Not getting paid back their debt is a headache for them. And also the fact that they had some Chinese military equipment there that didn't work that well in the, in this recent operation that we saw. So they're embarrassed and they've got some headaches, both economic headaches and they've got some energy headaches as a result of what's happened. I think that's all to the good because I don't wish the Chinese Communist Party well at all.
- [68:30]
Hugh Hewitt
Well, what's interesting, Dan, and we'll wrap up on this is that there are a lot of outcomes from this operation, which is a in and out, two and a half hour masterpiece of special operation. And Admiral McRaven was on the program last week. He said, we've been doing Special Ops for 20 years. We're getting really good at it. He wasn't talking about Venezuela, but he was talking about special ops. That one of the second order effects has got to be China worried about its supply, but Tehran's got to be worried about Donald Trump threatening them if they start mowing down dissenters in the street. Do you think that they take that threat more seriously on this Monday than they did last Friday?
- [69:11]
Dan Rundy
Absolutely. I mentioned earlier you this concept in foreign policy called deterrence. Right. Resetting deterrence. It basically means like making credible threats. Donald Trump is making credible threats. He has basically said he says he's going to do something and then he does it, as opposed to when President Obama said, I'm drawing a line in the sand and didn't do anything. This resets deterrence, similar with the actions that the United States did with their allies Israel against the thug regime in Iran earlier last year. So I think absolutely, just even from five days ago, there is a much more credible threat on the Iranian regime. And I think thank goodness President Trump came out last week and said, if you mess with the protesters on the ground, we're gonna mess with you. Thug regime, Iran. I thought that was great. Compare that to President Obama U where he basically encouraged protesters but then didn't protect them and didn't do anything. And so I think President Trump has been willing to step forward and say I'm willing to protect the protesters was a phenomenal act. And what happened in Venezuela makes it very clear that he's willing to back up those words with force. And thank goodness he's willing to do so.
- [70:35]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, last question, Dan. Should we be willing to spend American dollars to help Venezuela stand up a stable government transition and then free and fair elections and a free market, should we be willing to invest if the bad guys realize the clock is ticking like it ran out of time from Maduro and they want to work with us, ought we to spend American dollars there? Not soldiers, but dollars?
- [71:03]
Dan Rundy
Yeah, I think this is a great question. You. I think there's a belief that there's a lot. The largest amount of oil reserves in the world are in Venezuela. The largest amount of gold reserves in the world are in Venezuela. Now, assuming they haven't been pillaged. And we have been able to kind of get a real sense of what's going on or how much that's been spoken for with, you know, borrowing money against it, et cetera. But there's a lot of resources. Venezuela, in theory should be a rich country. So I do think, certainly we should be, at least on a lending basis, be willing to provide some money on the front end to say we're going to help get you back on your feet and lend you some money to do so. I think President Trump is right to say we should be, we should participate in the upside of a, of a prosperous Venezuela, that American workers and American companies should be at the front of the line since we've just helped given them a new opportunity. They got the best shot in 25 years. President Trump is providing the best shot in 25 years for Venezuela.
- [72:02]
Hugh Hewitt
That is a wonderful way to conclude Dan Rundy R U N D E I hope you write this up for people other than talking heads like me so that every American can read that. It's great to have an expert on hand who's willing to spend an hour with me. Thank you. Dan Rundy. His book is the American Imperative. It's imperative that you get and read that if you want to understand what's going on in the world. Stay tuned, folks. So many people I know are disheartened that our country seems to have forgotten the importance of citizenship, and they wonder how a strong sense of citizenship might be revived. That's why my friends at Hillsdale College have produced a free online course on the topic American Citizenship and its Decline. Taught by historian Victor Davis Hanson, the course traces the history of citizenship and explains how it is undermined in America today by open borders, by identity politics, by the administrative state, and by globalization. Americans taking the course will gain a deeper insight about the connection between citizenship and freedom, an insight they can share with family members, friends and neighbors. Hillsdale's free online courses are an important component of Hillsdale's mission to reach and teach increasing millions of people on behalf of liberty and the American way of life. So sign up today for Hillsdale's free online course, American Citizenship and its Decline by visiting HughForHillsdale.com that's H U G H F O R Hillsdale.com HughForHillsdale.com Start your free course today at HueForHillsdale.com Americans.
- [73:32]
Dan Rundy
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- [74:06]
Hugh Hewitt
Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Rick Mattis is the Free Beacon arts and culture and weekend editor. If you're not reading the Free Beacon, you should be. He's also the co host of the Getting Hammered podcast, which is back. Vic Mattis, happy New Year to you. How was your New Year's Eve party?
- [74:22]
Vic Mattis
Happy New Year to you, Hugh. It was a great party. I did make that picture of Manhattan's that I mentioned on your show previously. That would be 40 ounces of bourbon and 20 ounces of vermouth. 60 ounces, good to the last drop. In the words of Teddy Roosevelt, all gone.
- [74:41]
Hugh Hewitt
Now, Vic, I got to say about the last episode of Getting Hammered, I was a little bit disappointed at the fact that, that you are mocking the Pop Tarts Bowl. And I, I myself have never had a Pop Tart. Not one, not in all of my years on this planet. But I still think they're a staple of many homes, right?
- [75:01]
Vic Mattis
Yeah, that's correct. I mean, it's something. Well, at least when I was a high schooler, you're on the go, you know, you're usually crashing on something, you know, homework that you haven't done, a paper that's due to. And you know, your mom is probably busy doing other things. Maybe she's making a lunch for you or not, who knows? But you don't have time to sit down for a full breakfast. Sometimes you got to get on the road, you got to get in your car and get to school. Grab the Pop Tart, pop it in the toaster. It's good to go.
- [75:29]
Hugh Hewitt
That's what leads me to Mr. And Mrs. Maduro, who've had a change in circumstance. Whether or not they liked Pop Tarts doesn't really matter anymore. What do you think? What do you think he's thinking in his Brooklyn cell right now? I don't know, maybe he's thinking, what.
- [75:46]
Vic Mattis
Would Manuel Noriega do at a time like this? You know, I mean, this is what everybody's thinking. They're channeling back to the Manuel Noriega's, you know, the collapse of his regime and his takedown, which took several days for the US Military for that exfiltration operation. And I think Noriega did spend about 17 years in a US prison before being sent out to, I think France and then Panama I don't know if he can get out of this. On the other hand, he might be hopeful that they have a very old judge who's very quirky in his ways, and maybe he might throw a wrench in this whole operation. He is maybe hoping that the Trump administration gets caught up in the fervor and forgets something on the. On the fine, you know, on the dotted line to fill out properly and he can get somehow released. But I don't think that's going to happen. I think there's mounds of evidence that have been compiled since the 2020 indictment in the Southern District of New York. The narcoterrorism, the drug trafficking. There's a lot to connect him to, and he has to worry about that he'll get his legal representation. This is the United States of America, after all. But if I were him, I would not be thinking I'd be heading back home anytime soon, nor would I think, would he be wanted back home.
- [77:09]
Hugh Hewitt
Well, I gotta ask you, Vic, I'm a little bit surprised that a district court judge in the Northern District of California has not yet ordered his return to Venezuela, as they have done with Abrega. Right. There gotta be a district court that will direct the Trump administration to reverse what they've done somewhere. It won't stand, but someone will do it.
- [77:30]
Vic Mattis
What is the ACLU doing at this moment and where are they filing? In a state or a city that's sympathetic to their cause and to leftist causes. This is how they've been able to, you know, obstruct the Trump administration every step of the way, even going up to the Supreme Court when it came to things like tariffs. So don't. We shouldn't jinx it, Hugh, I mean, or hold our breath? No, I think, you know, there's still tomorrow.
- [77:57]
Hugh Hewitt
I think it makes every American abroad, whether in uniform or not, safer. I think that every single American benefits from what happened on Saturday. Do you agree with me?
- [78:09]
Vic Mattis
Yes. Whether or not they like to admit it, we're talking about the reduction of fentanyl entering into the United States. A lot of people, you know, have died because of fentanyl overdoses. And it's coming out of Venezuela, largely. Maybe a lot of listeners know people personally. I certainly do. People who have died from fentanyl overdoses. It is a terrible thing. And you're looking at a reduction already in drug overdose, opioid deaths in 2024. That trend will probably continue. And it's not unrelated to the drop in both, you know, illegal immigration across the Southern border and of course, what's happening in Venezuela now.
- [78:55]
Hugh Hewitt
I am surprised, I really have to say I am surprised by the number of people who've gone on the air to pronounce that it was illegal and that Congress needed to be notified. It wasn't illegal and Congress didn't. Senator Cotton was just on the air with me saying he's perfectly satisfied with the call he got at 3:30 in the morning on Saturday from Secretary Rubio, who used to have the job that Senator Cotton has now chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. What do you think of these people? Do they just reflexivity because Trump didn't have to be against it?
- [79:27]
Vic Mattis
That's part of it, Hugh, definitely. For example, when the Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy said that people should dress better on airplanes just to stick it to Trump, people dressed even slobbier than they already do. So that was one thing, if Trump says water and air are good for you, they're going to do everything in the power to say it's bad for you. So that's one part of it. And the other part is something that Mark Halperin had said recently, recently, which is say what you will about Trump derangement syndrome. One of the things it causes is amnesia. And so suddenly people do, people do forget about Obama droning an American citizen. He didn't, you know, get a charge or a warrant for that. And certainly going back to, let's say, Bill Clinton, you know, and launching strikes in Serbia or our involvement with boots on the ground in Somalia. So suddenly those things are forgotten. Or they'll say that these are very terrible precedents, including Panama, that we're, you know, having to abide by. But the fact is there are precedents, lots of precedents.
- [80:28]
Hugh Hewitt
And that brings me finally to Chuck Schumer and Democrats. Does any Democrat other than John Fetterman, have you seen one come out and say, good for the good old USA Venezuelans deserve freedom, free, frequent and fair elections and free markets. Have you seen any Democrats say that?
- [80:48]
Vic Mattis
No, they seem to be in lockstep, as you were mentioning, with the exception of the Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, who was on Fox this morning talking, in fact, about how you have to, you know, give credit to where it's due, regardless of the president, regardless of how you feel about President Trump, having him removed is a good thing. And there are, for example, James Homan had an editorial in the Washington Post saying this is a good thing. And of course, there readers went ballistic over that position because again, if Trump did it, it has to be bad, but they don't realize that if they take a step back at how foolish that makes them look. And there are Venezuelans who are saying, have you talked to us people in Doral, you know, not the protesters in New York, but the people in Venezuela and here in this country, they are happy.
- [81:35]
Hugh Hewitt
Yeah, I think Florida got redder over the weekend. Very, very much. That's it. Lots of Venezuelans in Florida who had to go there because of the tyranny of Nicolas Maduro. Vic Mattis, good to talk to you. Follow him on exit. Victorino Mattis, go and like and subscribe to Getting Hammered that he and Mary Katherine Ham bring to you at least weekly. And stay tuned. I'll be right back on the U. Hewitt Show. If you're shopping while working, eating or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of a deal.
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