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Host 1
Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians.
Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
Every story has a hero. It has a bad guy. I want to be the bad guy. You're a. Get the out of here. You're going to spew bull at me. That's going to cost you something. So what? This is business. Life is hard. Then you die. Get over it. Some people just go crazy when they hear the truth. And I don't care. What really motivates everybody at the end of the day is money.
Host 1
What's an investment that everyone loves right now that you think is going to collapse?
Kevin O'Leary
It's never the one you think. I'm breaking a little news here. Something's going to go down 80% because of AI disruption.
Host 2
Will AI replace more jobs than it creates?
Kevin O'Leary
No. We just don't know what the transition is going to look like. AI is going to be such a powerful tool, it'll create new industries we haven't even thought of.
Host 1
When do you think the next recession is going to hit and what do you think is going to cause that?
Kevin O'Leary
It's not going to end well. It will destroy the fabric of the economy.
Host 1
Kevin o', Leary, thank you so much for coming on the Iced Coffee Hour.
Kevin O'Leary
Well, I always enjoyed it, really appreciate it.
Host 1
I want to get your reaction to this clip that just recently went viral and I want to know what was going on.
Host 2
All right, Kevin, a quick last word.
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, wow. Which I'm not sure the last word is you're all nuts. Like, that's just. Oh, my God. Thank you, Gavin. Guys,
Host 2
we gotta keep it together here, okay?
Kevin O'Leary
Honestly, I mean, there's a way to talk about these things. If you don't have anything to say, just say that and I won't come to you next time. All right.
Host 2
You just said something very important in your own words, which was, you're all nuts.
Kevin O'Leary
So I, you know, Abby and I have had a long relationship and she is actually very successful right now on cnn. I believe she has the fastest growing numbers on that plat. And I think CNN has also determined through its producers that they will garner a larger audience if it's a real debate in Other words, instead of just taking one side or the other, which. There was a time in media where that outlet was left, that outlet was right. But that's not what advertisers want. They don't want to bifurcate the market in 50, 50. They want every customer, regardless of what their politics are. And so what I learned, and I think I'm the only guy doing this, I go to every outlet. I go to all of them. And I stick with policy, not politics. I don't shill for politicians. I shill for policy that I think is good or policy that I think is bad. And I have an opinion about that. I'm a columnist. I'm not a journalist. And so in the case of that narrative, we were debating the performance of. I think it was Munich, and it was AOC talking about policy in Munich, and she clearly was not prepared. And so she did not have a good outcome in terms of the global press. And we were talking about that, and they seemed to want to say, well, that was okay. She just had a brain fart or something, whatever they were calling it, and they were trying to compare it to Trump. I said, this has nothing to do with Trump. Trump wasn't there. This is a poor performance by aoc. Now, let's draw this analogy. If I get hired to go speak to an audience, which I do, I want to know who's in the audience. I want to know exactly what the narrative is going to be, and I want to be prepared. I want to know my stuff, you know, before I get out there, because I'm going to. You're going to get fried if you don't know what you're talking about. And that's what happened to her. She didn't know what she was talking about and basically didn't prepare. And so I say, look, she failed. And to me, that was factual and it caused a big debate.
Host 2
So why do you think it went so viral, calling a CNN panel nuts?
Kevin O'Leary
I thought it was a humorous moment. There was only 15 seconds left to the show, and they were.
Host 2
So do you actually think they're nuts, or do you think that they, like, they just.
Kevin O'Leary
That moment was a temporary moment of insanity for them. They just couldn't deal with the fact that I was not going to stop telling the truth. She failed on her mandate. She did a poor job as a speaker that day. And that is true. She was terrible. And somehow, if you don't tell the truth, how's she expecting to get better? She failed. She got an F minus. She'll Never do that again. I mean, everybody on earth watched her do word salad for 30 seconds.
Host 2
So do you think that the CNN panel actually believe what they're saying? Like, oh, she just had a brain fart. Like it wasn't anything that's reflective of her actual intelligence or knowledge on what's going on? Or do you think that they're being fed information and they're like, okay, well this is just the narrative that we have to purport.
Kevin O'Leary
You know, imagine this, you're into a vicious discussion, a really high energy discussion and then we go to commercial break around the table.
Host 2
We should have an ad.
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, right here. Because that actually is what happens. And tempers are, are high and people are mad and they're, you know, I've been doing this a long time and I learned long, long ago, you know, when you're on a doing live television and you're having a political narrative or debate, there's a moment of three minutes where all of a sudden, just like the three of us sitting here, it stops. And I always say, well, how about those Yankees? What else are you going to do? Because everybody's upset. The good news I think is in the end people want to see both sides. How it's presented to them is a matter of style and the show's producers and everything else. But Abby Phillips show is doing very well and I'd like to think I'm a contributor to it. And for me, I don't want to go and sit at 10 o' clock at night and be bored to death. I want to have some fun. And boy, we have fun on that show. Because if you're a left winger that is not willing to deal with numbers, for example, we had a debate about the economy and I'm sitting there, you're going to have a problem because I know my numbers, I have facts, I deal with them. I know exactly where we sit on the S and P, the Dow and where we're at in terms of cash flow per quarter and all that and you're going to spew bullshit at me that's going to cost you something.
Host 2
What are the most astonishing facts on the economy right now?
Kevin O'Leary
The resilience it has as we have major forces at play. I'll give you two major forces. Obviously tariffs, most people thought would be highly inflationary. That hasn't proved out to be the case. There is some increase in input costs. They need to be fine tuned. But the impact of AI was underestimated as a productivity tool. Look at what happened with square. Just in the last 24 hours I saw that. And look how much the stock has gone up as a result of cutting the workforce by 40%. So there you have the good, bad and the ugly in that thing. But AI is turning out to be a massive productivity tool for margin enhancement, increased cash flow and productivity all at the same time, not just in one sector. In all 11 sectors of the economy. All 11 sectors use AI today and 24 months ago you would have said, that's hype. And I can give you examples in my own portfolio of companies of which every single one is using an AI tool, paying for it, renting it, whatever they're doing, and, and how they're using it and how it's enhanced cash flow in the last six months.
Host 1
What do you think about Sam Altman saying that a lot of the layoffs are simply AI washing and that these companies are using AI as an excuse to fire people because they might have overhired or spending too much money or maybe their financials just aren't good. So they blame AI.
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, I think there's a lot of that going on. But the offset. And I mean, just look at. Let's use an example, just a very. This is two simple examples that everybody's going to understand that wasn't happening 18 months ago is happening now. Let's take the insurance industry, make it easy. The watch insurance industry. I'm involved. I have a company called WonderCare that insures watches. So if somebody goes online says, I want to insure this Rolex Daytona, it would take up to two weeks to write a policy. You'd have to go do research, actuarial data. How old, what zip code are they in? How much fraud is in that state? What are the laws of that state? We can issue that policy now in nine seconds through data scraping. So the productivity is insane in terms of. And what's it done for margin enhancement? How about this one? You own a large box retailer. Each year for your insurance, you have to send a guy up on a ladder or a Wendy's or a McDonald's. The same for any commercial building, no matter where it is in any state. You have to inspect the roof for leaks and all of the airvac, all the H VAC system, everything. And then if there's any repair required, you have to issue work order and get it repaired in order to maintain your insurance. How about a 6K drone? Just flies over it in a matter of 30 minutes, compares that image from the one it took last year down to a 6K resolution, it sends it to a satellite. And before anybody even stops flying, the drone issues the work order for repair. Nobody gets up a ladder. The only person that went there, it's a company called Fly Guys. We own a piece of it. They just fly drones. And it's all done with AI. So you fly a guy out in his Ford 150 to that McDonald's above the top, it's over. That's it. Nobody goes up on a ladder in the summer or the winter and gets injured. That's AI.
Host 1
So you've said before that someone making $65,000 a year could become a millionaire. Could you walk us through that math? And is there an income level where it's just mathematically impossible with living expenses
Kevin O'Leary
that you just can't do it? Not if you're 65. It's when you're. When you get to 65, the way it works is. And we don't have the discipline. And I'm going to walk you down a lesson that I learned over the last six years on this. Remember when Fintech was smoking hot and everybody's bringing apps to the market to help you trade stocks, buy bonds, buy derivatives, buy options. It was all done on your phone. And everybody thought, well, this is going to make it just democratic. Everybody out there is going to be able to be like a multimillion dollar investor because they got the tools for nothing. None of that worked. Score more with the college branded Venmo debit card and earn up to 5% cash back with Venmo stash. Got paid back with the Venmo debit card. You can instantly access your balance and spend on what you want, like game day, snacks, gear, tickets and more. The more you do, the more cash back you can earn. Plus there's no monthly fee or minimum balance. Sign up now@venmo.com collegecard the Venmo MasterCard is issued by the Bancorp Bank. NA Select Schools available. Venmo stash terms and exclusions apply@venmo.me stashterms max $100 cash back per month. None of it. And we, I was developing something like that. We started with a version of Beanstalks. I'm promoting something I invested in and it never worked because people actually don't know how to read a stock chart or what candles are or what 200 day averages are or any of that stuff. What they really wanted, it turned out, was the ability to push a button in one transaction and put 60% of it into stocks and 40% of it into bonds. That's it. That's it. And the smarter we made the app in terms of simplicity, when it got so simple that that's what you could do, and that's what Beanstalks does today. Then it took off. Because the only decision you have to make in your life is what is the discipline Each week you have to take your income and what percentage? 10. Well, some people 5, 10 or 15% are you going to put into the market? And never take it out till you're 65. You want to be a millionaire at 65? A million and a half dollars. Take 20% of your salary of $69,000 and put it into the market each week. And don't touch it and just watch it on your phone grow. It goes up and down as the market moves. But generally speaking, the market for the last 150 years has anywhere from 8 to 12% annualized every single year. You don't have to guess or pick stocks. You don't know. You just buy an index. That's what the app does.
Host 1
How are you investing your money?
Kevin O'Leary
I only do indices now. I basically say, because I've learned through our Beanstalks experience, I use an Alps product. I helped design it, and then we sold it to Alps called Oshares. So they have an index for S and P, an index for technology, an index for Europe, and an index for Asia. I put 40% into the US 20% into Europe, and the rest spread across the other two, and I forget about it.
Host 1
How often do you check your portfolio?
Kevin O'Leary
Every day at 405, I have a huge dashboard. Not only my public companies, but all my private investments, too. I mean, I have a lot in real estate. I have a lot in, well, in collectibles I've gone into. We've had in my group that we formed, we have over 100 million in cards now. It's been one of my best investments.
Host 2
What's the most valuable card you have?
Kevin O'Leary
Dual logo man. Jordan Kobe. You know, I'm going to be walking on the red carpet of 1st SAG AFTRA, the Actors Awards on Sunday here, but then the oscars on the 15th. And I thought, what could I give back to Los Angeles that would be really cool? And I came up with this idea. I thought if we could take the Jordan Kobe Dual logo man. That card we bought last August for $12.93 million.
Host 2
I also didn't know you bought that. I know the card sold for that price. I didn't know it was everywhere.
Host 1
Yes, I saw the press tour.
Host 2
That's crazy.
Kevin O'Leary
But then I thought to myself, Paul Logan did something cool with his Pokemon. He hung it on a necklace and he wore it. I thought, how can I take Paul's idea and elevate it, turn it to 11. How can I max it out? So I called up my good friends at Tiffany's and I said, can we talk to Paris? Let's dream up a necklace made of all diamonds and rubies. And I'll wear that at the Oscars because Kobe should be back in LA and nobody knows I'm coming with that. That thing's going to be worth about $25 million. I'm only. I'm gonna have security everywhere, obviously brings trucks and everything. But when I get on that red carpet, I'm gonna be wearing that thing. It's gonna be a mind blower. And it's going to make the necklace that we've designed. I actually am wearing the two watches that we designed it for. The classic Daytona rainbow, which is rubies and diamonds, graded colors. And then of course, all ruby diamond AP skeleton. I think I'll be we of those with a card here. Can you imagine the blame? I mean, that's.
Host 2
You're like the rich person final boss. You're like literally like Mr. Burn. This is like a side quest at this point.
Kevin O'Leary
It's about art. It's about taking it into wearable art. Because the Kobe dual logoman is considered by some the supreme card.
Host 2
Yeah.
Kevin O'Leary
In its design. The fact that it has the original jerseys, both logos are perfect. I mean, the whole thing. And I've only been able to see that out of the vault once because it's vaulted, it's insured, but it's coming out on the streets of LA on the red carpet, and it's going to be insane. That's going to be the.
Host 1
So we just had Logan Paul on the podcast and we were talking about the card and I was asking what the Logan Paul premium was for the card. And he definitely said his name associated in the story behind it. And him showing it adds a level of premium for a buyer because that has a story to it.
Kevin O'Leary
Well, magic. Yeah. I mean, think about walking the red carpet of the Oscars. We're nominated for not nine Academy Awards on Marty Supreme. This is a chance of a lifetime to bring Kobe back into LA in. In its flashiest moment, you know.
Host 1
So what's your plan with the card? The starting a business sounds exciting, but the biggest roadblock for a lot of people isn't the idea. It's all the paperwork. Like everyone says, oh, just go and Start an llc, but nobody tells you exactly what's involved and how to do it correctly.
Host 2
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Kevin O'Leary
So the card, my philosophy. We talked earlier about ETFs, right? I like diversification. So if I own Europe, I own 50 stocks. My portfolio is 50 of the largest European stocks in that Oshare. I want to own 50 cards. I don't want to bet the farm on one card. I want the 50s most valuable cards on earth in one hold co that I'm a shareholder in. That's what I want because I went back and did the research. Go back to 1958 in modern and contemporary art. Track every single painting. You can do this online now easily. What you're going to find out is 98% of the returns of the modern and contemporary art market came from the top 20 pieces of art. Top 20 artists that their rarest pieces. So a Picasso that you bought for $2,500 in 1962, that trades for 140 million today. Not some other artist. The Picasso. There were thousands of modern artists, but Picasso is the one you wanted. Warhol. There were all kinds of people in New York in the 70s doing what Warhol was doing, but none of those have traded up. You got to own the Warhol. You want Mick Jagger. So that's my philosophy with cards. So I got together with Two other guys, Shine, probably the number one collector on earth. I said shine, go find me every single Picasso and Warhol in every sport. And what you've learned about the data, it doesn't matter what you pay. It just doesn't matter whether you pay 8 million or 20 million or 50 million. Doesn't matter. If you just let time do its thing. Those cards outperform all the rest of that sector if they are piece uniques. So that the Jordan Kobe logo, man, that's a piece unique. There's only one of those. So we paid 12.93 million middle of August last year. Go to cardlighter, it's 17.2 million right now. Better than the S and P. Have
Host 1
you gotten an offer after purchasing it?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. We're not selling that car. I'm not selling any cards. Like, how am I going to buy them back? They're piece uniques. Like, this is better. It's done way better than crypto. Way better. Like way better than bitcoin, Way better than the s and P500.
Host 2
So in terms of your portfolio, then if you were to allocate percentages and how it's invested, what percent would be? Alternative investments like cards, collectibles, as opposed to index funds, individual stock picks, private companies, real estate. Like, how are you currently diversified?
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, that's actually the secret sauce. And the thing about diversity, it's the only free lunch in investing. Very simple rule for me on traditional equities and debt, no more than 20% in any one sector. There's 11 sectors in the economy and no more than 5% in any one stock or bond. So think about, you've got 11 sectors. Real estate's the 11th sector in the S and P, the most recent. The only rule I break is real estate. I have about 32% of my portfolio in real estate.
Host 2
Is that commercial real estate?
Kevin O'Leary
No, it's a blend. But right now what's really exploding in terms of value for me are the deals I did in, in data Centers. I bought 10,200 acres in Alberta, Canada, and last week we announced 10,300 acres in Utah. Both locations have extraordinary attributes in terms of what the hyperscalers need. So I'm really, really long real estate right now because if you look at the cash flow in all commercial real estate, there's never been in history this much capex allocated to this sector. This is we, we have demand right now for 45 gigawatts of data centers and only five under construction. Think about that. So for the next seven years, I want to be long land that has power, fiber permits and water.
Host 2
So how does it look then in terms of like percentages? Like, if some person out there watching with 10k to their name, how are they going to mirror your portfolio right now?
Kevin O'Leary
What's declined the most in the last year? So let's look at where we sit right now. I would say on a portfolio basis, I'm about 60% equities globally.
Host 2
Is that private, public?
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, we're going to make it. We want simple numbers here. It's private and public. I'm about 5% in alternatives, including cards. I used to be 11% in crypto, but I discovered something quite disturbing, I might add. We'll take a little derivative here. So I'm down quite a bit on crypto because last October when the Genius act passed and the SEC made stablecoins legal tender, something really crazy happened. The Stability act, or the Clarity act as it was called then, looked like it was going to close by December. So here we are in October. We're at the Cantor conference in October. October 20th was the date, I think. And the word on the street was that within six weeks that we were going to get the final act for crypto, which was going to be the Structure Clarity Act. So all of the sovereign wealth funds that we index with on the equities started to say, okay, we're going to do some work on preparing for which positions to put on in crypto. Which ones do we need to own to actually get exposure to the alpha, the volatility of the market? Do we own Bitcoin? Do we own Ethereum? Do we own Solana? Do we own whatever, whatever. There's 10,000 coins and they independently, without any emotion, because there's a lot of emotion in the crypto market, a lot of Kryptonians and all that stuff. These guys were just independently saying, we're going to allocate $500 million into crypto. And their researchers started to go to work. Here's what they found out. You only need to own Bitcoin and Ethereum and you capture 98% of the entire crypto market. You don't need anything else. All the rest is poo poo. So the poo poo coins collapsed. I mean, it was brutal. Some of them went down 80, 90% and they're never coming back because they're poo poo coins. They have no reason to exist and there's nobody going to save them and they have no marketing money to go get the ticker. That Ethereum gets every day on every cable network in the world looks at business. And Bitcoin's Bitcoin. So that's very sobering. People lost a ton of money that they're never gonna get back on the poo poo scale. So if you're gonna get exposure to crypto, avoid poo poo and just Simply buy the two that matter. That's what I did. So I sold 27 positions, gone, put it into USDC which was giving me yield of 3.9% and just bought more Ethereum and Bitcoin. And now it's a good, a very interesting time. Those things have been crushed too. So you know, my idola, I'd call that an alternative too. But it didn't perform as well as gold. So you know, if you think about it this way, for me right now it's probably 60 equities globally, 20 fixed income and 20 alternatives including cards, crypto gold. And that portfolio has done quite well.
Host 1
What's an investment that everyone loves right now that you think is going to collapse?
Kevin O'Leary
It's never the one you think you know. It's sort of the. In fact that's the great question. Because it's the reason that you should force yourself into diversification. Because you think you know. You don't know. But you're right, something will collapse. But because you only own 5% of it or max 20% in that sector, it's very hard for a sector to completely collapse. But Zootopia 2 has come home to Disney Plus. Let's go get ready for a new case.
Host 1
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Kevin O'Leary
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Host 2
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Kevin O'Leary
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Host 1
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Kevin O'Leary
plus and Hulu for just $4.99 a month for three months with a special limit to time. Offer ends March 24th. After three months, plan auto renews at $12.99 a month. Terms apply. You know, there's been a real correction on a lot of the AI assumptions lately. And some of those stocks have pulled back. But because for me it's. It's just a 5% position, it doesn't really hurt. And yet gold. Everybody got that wrong. And that thing really saved my rear end. Like look at my gold portfolio. It was insane. The performance.
Host 2
If you had to throw out a guess though, if you were to speculate not that people should listen to what you're speculating on. But what would you say could be something people are bullish on right now that you're bearish on.
Kevin O'Leary
I think the disruption that's going to occur in AI around I would say financial services. You saw what Jack Dorsey did. He laid off 40% of his people yesterday. He, in a sense, he's financial services. I think that's going to happen again. Now the weird thing is the stock price didn't collapse, but the employment numbers did. So it's hard for me to pick where AI is going to disrupt next. I would have thought it would have happened sooner, but this next year, the year we're in, here we are in February. If we have this gathering again in 12 months, something's going to go down 80%. I just don't know what it is yet. But it will because of AI's disruption.
Host 2
So I'm curious for you. Do you just pop open your brokerage every morning and like dollar cost average?
Kevin O'Leary
No, no. What I do is I mark to market with a dashboard. I have. It's a proprietary dashboard, but it takes every single global. Because I have accounts in the, in the uae, in Switzerland.
Host 2
What do you mean, a council?
Kevin O'Leary
Well, I have a company called o' Leary Global in Abu Dhabi and it has investments. So those stocks go up and down on that exchange. So I need to know what they are. And so at 405, although remember, 13 hours ahead over there, I just take a snapshot, I look at it on my phone and I say I just look for variance. What moved more than 3%. And so it flags any position that had more than a 3% move in this trading session. And what's occurring now is there's more and more names every day. There's a lot of volume. Let me give you an example. I'm a shareholder in Circle. You're probably unaware of this. It went up 35% yesterday. That's a lot. Now why did it go up 35%? Because there's a emotion in the market now that it looks like the Clarity act is going to clear in the next couple of months. And that solves the issue around interest on stablecoins. So boom. I have a big position in that company because I bought it privately years ago. 35% move in one day. You don't see that very often, but it, you know, was a huge winner in the portfolio. But my whole point is it's not more than 5%, but that when you get one 5% position to move 35%. You outperform the market that day. That's what happens.
Host 1
When do you think the next recession is going to hit and what do you think is going to cause that?
Kevin O'Leary
I always look at the canary in the coal mine. That's the consumer. When the consumer rolls over, you'll see it. It'll be three data sets in a row. And that means we're entering a recession. Now. Each recession's different. The wild card again is AI. People are saying today because of Jack Dorsey's thing, the recession is going to be caused by AI. The only problem with that statement is yes, the people that lost their jobs don't have the same earnings power. Except how do you know they're not going to be sucked up into another sector? You don't. And so will AI self correct the economy by making it more productive with higher free cash flow. Like even in our companies in the last two years, Just the private ones like Boost Oxygen or Blueland Detergent or hello Prenup. You know, these are all small cap businesses. Cash flows are up 20%. Why AI now?
Host 1
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Host 2
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Kevin O'Leary
No, no, Jack, you're going to hell for saying that.
Host 2
But there is an argument to be made.
Kevin O'Leary
No, there isn't. It's un American. It will destroy the fabric of the economy, punishing wealth and success.
Host 1
Well, it's not punishing because they already have billions of dollars.
Kevin O'Leary
Right.
Host 2
The difference between having $5 billion and then let's just say a 10% wealth tax, you know, $4.5 billion is not quite significant.
Kevin O'Leary
It's just the idea that you're made a promise to come to America as an entrepreneur, to achieve the American dream, and then some arbitrary politician randomly decides, we're going to appropriate that from you. We're going to steal your wealth just because we feel that a 10% wealth tax is appropriate.
Host 1
It's not really stealing, it's redistributing.
Kevin O'Leary
You're going to go to hell, too. Both of you are going to hell. I feel sorry. I mean, well, we've never made any real money that word before. In Cuba, in North Korea, in Russia.
Host 2
It just hasn't been done right.
Kevin O'Leary
They're all shitholes now. How about Venezuela? They redistribute all the time to corruption. It's a sh. Hole.
Host 1
Assuming it goes to corruption. But if it doesn't.
Kevin O'Leary
No. The point is, we are not very
Host 2
corrupt here in America.
Kevin O'Leary
No, no. Because we have laws and we abide by them. But one of those laws is you can't steal people's money. So this idea of a wealth tax is going to be litigated right to the Supreme Court. And it's going to lose because it's un American. And. And there is no such thing as too much wealth because it all goes back anyways. The guy dies or the woman dies that has that wealth. And then we hit it again with state tax. You get it back. And during their lifetime, they should be able to enjoy their success unfettered because they took the risk to create what people keep forgetting on this issue. And Elon Musk is often used as the example. Nearly the wealthiest man on Earth. Now, how many jobs has he created? How much tax has he paid? I mean, if we didn't have him, would there be Starlink, Would there be Tesla? No. Would there be all this innovation in robotics? No. Let's punish him for his success.
Host 1
I think he would be fine with $100 billion.
Kevin O'Leary
No, no, he wants to use that money. He lives in a shack somewhere. He doesn't Care.
Host 2
We're totally kidding. We don't actually live in a wealth tax. Yeah, well, we're just trying. We're just trying to bait you.
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, I get it.
Host 1
We just thought, this is the funniest country.
Kevin O'Leary
You're not going to hell, then you're lucky.
Host 1
Let's try to hold back the last.
Kevin O'Leary
The whole issue is, and he said this publicly, I need that capital to deploy the next mission. And he's turned it from Mars to being the moon just in the last two weeks. I want to give him as much money because if you look at executional skills, show me anywhere on Earth where there's a person like that, and thank goodness he doesn't live in Russia or in China or in North Korea. He's here in America because he wants to pursue the American dream. The reason those countries you think about, even Europe, if you have a great idea and you're sitting in France, you get on a plane and you go to Texas. That's where you make it happen. Even as far back as the V2 rockets, when they were Germans, they came to America and set up NASA. We bring the geniuses here because they want to live in freedom and they want to be rewarded. The American dream. Look, I'm very stalwart on this. I'm very focused on it. And when I see bad policy, I rage against it.
Host 2
I got a question. Have you ever met Elon Musk? When's the last time you met him?
Kevin O'Leary
Mark Burnett's Christmas party. It has to be at least four years ago because Mark used to do a Christmas. He doesn't do it anymore, but we used to do a Christmas party for all of the Shark Tank, you know, his television companies. It was a great party on. On the west coast, and everybody showed up. I. I'm. I was talking to him and Lady Gaga at the same time. It was just wild.
Host 2
So Elon was talking to Lady Gaga. What are they talking about? What do they have in common?
Kevin O'Leary
It's interesting because I found her fascinating, too. She was really interested in business. And we were talking. I think we're talking indexing. I think she's. It's very random. And. Yeah, I mean, I really enjoy, you know, and I'm thrilled to be part of the acting community now because that's as eclectic as hell. I mean, these parties are incredible. They're just so interesting because I'm so used to financial services, to find myself acting in a feature movie and then, you know, hitting the parties and all the rest of that stuff.
Host 2
Okay. But people also, the Viewers out there that don't attend the Hollywood parties have a very controversial opinion on the Hollywood parties.
Kevin O'Leary
How I get it. But what you find out is those people. And I'll speak on their behalf. I thought the same way about Hollywood parties. Complete bull. Then I actually went to work on a feature film for eight months. They work like hell. Their working conditions are brutal. They work 18 hours a day. When you're shooting on the streets of New York or in Tokyo, I mean, it is exhausting. And you're living in a ball trailer with a porto can toilet. It sounds glamorous to make a movie. It is not glamorous. It is not at all. It's hard work. And now I get it. And I have a new respect for them. So for anybody listening, don't make an assumption that a Timothee Chalamet runs around making movies and lives like a king. He lives like shooting like, you know, it's shit. It's really, really hard and it's exhausting because you gotta get through that seven pages of script. And if you have to stay there till 6 in the morning, you're gonna stay at 6 in the morning. And then you gotta, gotta get up two hours later and do it again.
Host 1
So when they were casting for the movie, they said they were looking for a real asshole. I'm curious if that's how you see yourself.
Kevin O'Leary
No, I just tell the truth. Some people don't like goes right back to the beginning of this narrative we had about what happened on cnn. Some people just go crazy when they hear the truth. And I don't care. Listen, the thing is, and I've said this to a lot of my students, if you try to live your life pleasing everybody, you're going to fail. You cannot make everybody happy. If you decide to take on a leadership role in business, you are definitely not going to make everybody happy. If you want to get and be part of the narrative on policy, you are definitely not going to make everybody happy. The only people you need to keep Happy are your 20s. Most people only have 20 people in their lives that mean anything to them. Their family and maybe an extended family and some close friends. There's not 200 people that you spend every day with. Everybody else, your role is not to make them happy. It's to tell them the truth and make sure you don't do anything that you lose their respect. I mean, I think people dislike me. Many do. But I believe that most of them respect me even though they don't like me because I haven't done Anything to do. I never lie about anything. Sometimes I. It causes a lot of problems.
Host 2
And have you ever taken your honesty too far? Like, has there ever been a point where you were too brutally honest or too blunt about something that the outcome was just objectively bad?
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, that happens. I mean, yes, I have. I could think of, you know, recently Billie Eilish comment. I didn't mean it to be. I think she's a great artist that I listen to her music all the time, but I didn't like what she was doing in terms of being political at an award show that really. She really got pissed off at me.
Host 2
But what is it like to have Billie Eilish mad at you? Is she like, DMing you, like.
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, yeah. I don't know. I mean, it's, you know, she had a bunch of actors come out and her support, and I think that's great. I don't dislike these people. Most of them I haven't even met. So it. But it to me is, you know, when you talk about Indigenous rights, something I know a lot about because they're my partners in data centers. What people don't understand about First Nation all over North America, very simple to understand this. There is no border for them. They have the first nations rights. They drift over the Canadian American border anytime they want. They don't recognize the border, and we allow them to do that. They own the water rights to many, many places in America and Canada. It's their water. And so they're going to be your partners. And they are my partners. And I don't like to hear anything said about them that isn't true. And so I stand up for my business partners and I claim why I do it. And it's sort of important because they need to hear that signal from me that I am truly looking out for their interests because it's in my best interest that they do. Okay? And so when we build a data center there, because they have what we need, water, we can't do it without them. So it gets into that. That's how complicated my life is. I'm always thinking about, all right, what's factual here. Now, if that pisses somebody off, okay. But, you know, I don't think I'm a bad guy. I'm just telling the truth. It's still the truth today.
Host 2
Do you think that as time has gone on that the truth has become more elusive in terms of people now prioritize feelings over some form of objective reality? Like back in the day, you could be blunt, you could be brutally Honest. And people were more okay with it. But as time has gone on, it's not as acceptable.
Kevin O'Leary
Now, I think the answer to that is, yes, that's true, but not for me. I don't care. I just don't care. I'm going to tell the truth every day. And the reason you need to do that is if you only tell the truth every day, you're never gonna have to remember what you said. It's still gonna be the truth tomorrow. And I really think there's something else going on. Just look at what's occurred on the Epstein files now that we have AI millions of pages, okay? If you're in that, it's not about the criminal prosecution. It's destroyed hundreds of people's careers just to have their name in it. In some cases, maybe it's fair. Some cases it may not be. I don't know the details. But every day you see fall from grace, from somebody canceled, because, you know, they obviously didn't think that through. You have to live your life every day thinking, is everything I did today, am I comfortable with it? Was I honest? Did I do anything that I'd be ashamed of tomorrow? Because with AI coming and social media, everything you do is seen by everybody all the time. So it goes back to the truth thing. I would argue the best thing you can do is tell the truth, because if it's not true, you're going to get 100% and they will cancel you in two seconds.
Host 2
Did someone lie to you early on, or did something happen for you to have such a strong emotional attachment towards the truth? Because I remember the last time my
Kevin O'Leary
mother caught me in a lie when I was, like, 15 years old. And it was a bold face lie. What was the lie? I'm trying to remember. I was in high school. I think it was about smoking drugs. I think I rolled a big fat joint and smoked it. And she came home early, and she could smell it. And at that time, I was smoking drugs. I don't do drugs anymore. But, you know, I was experimenting with a lot of stuff back then. And she said, you should have told me the truth because I've caught you in a lie. And she said then, look, if you only tell the truth every day, you'll never have to remember what you said, because I just caught you lying to me. And it really had an impact on me. It really hit me. And I thought, she's right. And I remember it was in the kitchen. I remember it crystal clear. And ever since then, I've tried the truth. It's worked for me, but, shit, it's got me in a lot of trouble, too.
Host 2
What's the hardest truth you've had to deliver, and what's the hardest truth you've had delivered to you?
Kevin O'Leary
It's always when I'm terminating somebody. You know, I have such a massive organization now, and I'm very fortunate in business, but I really require executional excellence. And, you know, people, when you, you know, we're going back into entrepreneurship here, but when you become a leader and you take other people's money and you start investing it, they make the assumption that you are going to protect their capital and give them a return. And in order to do that, your mandate is to find the very best people to work in these companies. And so my job is to find the right cfo, find the right CEO, find the right tech person, and then you have to not only do that, gel a team. The team has to work together. So my strategy's always been, let's hire someone for six months first, see if it works on a consulting basis, a 30% higher salary, and no stock options or anything. And then if it doesn't work out on their resume, it simply says, I consulted with one of the o' Leary Ventures groups, and I just moved on. But the hardest thing is when you finally come to the point where you've got to make a change, you have to tell them why. You got to be honest. And that's tough. It's really tough. But you also have to be fair. I think it's gotta be thousands of people now that I've let go in my career, but every one of them got a great exit package. I've never heard anybody badmouth me afterwards, saying, he wasn't fair to me. Man or woman.
Host 2
What's the harshest truth that someone's ever delivered to you?
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, I would say my stepfather said to me, you know, I was very much interested in becoming a photographer because I was working as a cameraman at that time, before I was going to college. And he sat me down and said, I'm sorry, but you're just not good enough. You don't have what it takes to survive against the level of quality that's out there. You're just not good enough. And. And that was a real stunner. And he was right. He was right. And it forced me to go back into college, and I did a business degree. And then the first thing I did, despite him, was to start a production company. And I. But I made sure I didn't. I wasn't the chief photographer anymore, so you still kind of listen well, but I. And I sold. That was my first deal. It was called Special Event Television. It did all the NHL Saturday programming. But I hired great cameraman and hire. And then I learned how to edit myself. I was a good editor. Still amazing. But it's sort of. It's very hard to have somebody tell you you're just not good enough. When it's true, it's true. He was right. Some people can't accept that. They can say, well, no, I'm going to get better. Executional skills vary on different mandates. You may be very, very good at one thing and not in another. And the real strength in life is figuring out what you're not good at. That's more important than knowing what you're good at so that you don't try and do things. I'm really logistics. It bores the crap out of me. Making widgets, shipping widgets. I've always had a partner that does that in every business I've done. I'm the marketing sales guy. I'm really good at that. And I know that and I can measure that. But when it comes to like, you know, where do we inventory our widgets? I don't give a go figure it out. And I'm willing to give up equity to people who can solve that.
Host 1
So in terms of telling the truth, you recently upset a lot of people saying that the movie Marty supreme could have saved millions replacing the background Actors with A.I.
Kevin O'Leary
yeah, well, that.
Host 1
Why do you think that upset so many people?
Kevin O'Leary
So let me tell you what I learned about that. I'm going to modify that statement a little bit because I experienced it myself. In a scene where you have, let's say 30. We had scenes with 250 extras and you're shooting it and there's people in a cafe or walking or bringing over a drink, or there's a narrative when you have an interaction with an extra. That can't be AI I would have thought it could have been, but it can't be. Because what I realized is the real magic of filmmaking are the mistakes you make. So I gotta retract that statement a bit. Where you can use AI would be like Ben Hur had cutouts in the stands when it was shot in the 60s. They couldn't put 1100 people in blazing sun for 12 hours. Hours. So they made cutouts. When we used to do hockey shots, we had blow up dolls. We had the first row with live people in the hockey arena. And then everybody else was a sex doll we just bought and blew them up. And because the motion is very blurry in the background, that's going to be AI you're going to get backgrounds that are AI but not where there's interaction between the actors. That's never going to change. And I realized why. I mean, I said that uninformed. So I've changed my views because I've actually it.
Host 2
What did you end up doing with all those dolls?
Kevin O'Leary
We. What we would do is we pop them and just throw them out because
Host 1
you didn't give them donate them.
Kevin O'Leary
You blow them out with a CO2 cartridge. They come with a. And you know, they always have really big lips. And we put like baseball hats on them and stuff.
Host 1
You should have donated them, really.
Kevin O'Leary
And then we'd shoot the scene and then someone would run up there with a knife and just chop them up. Oh, my God. Take the hats off.
Host 2
Take a few of them home.
Kevin O'Leary
Well, you can't re. It's really hard. It takes a time to get the air out of them.
Host 2
Oh, so you just got it.
Host 1
So good, so good, so good.
Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
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Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, there was actually a shark tank deal last year. It's called Gertie. This guy comes out and he says he shows a video of a dog that you know your security cameras. You leave and the dog starts howling. Ooh. Because he's got anxiety. The owner's left, left. So he gets a sex doll, blows it up and puts his jacket on it so his smell is on it and sticks it in the living room sitting there like this. And the dog just lies down beside it all night.
Host 2
I thought you were going to go somewhere else.
Kevin O'Leary
No, no, no. And so what he decided to do was take out the big lips part because that's what the sex dolls have, and put his girlfriend's face on it. Her name is Gertie. We put it on Shark Tank. It was the stupidest thing I'd ever seen, but it was so, so crazy that I invested in it. And it's been one of my best deals. You can go look at it gertie.com and you can buy a doll for your cat, your dog or turtle, whatever it is, and the animal will eventually, because it has legs and it's got arms. And you put sweater on it. And when you leave, they just say, oh, there, he's still here. It works.
Host 2
So when you say it was one of your best investments, what does that even mean? Like, how long have you held on to it? Are you taking distributions? How much did you put in? What's it worth?
Kevin O'Leary
Adventure investing? You don't treat it like a normal investment because you don't get anything back till your capital's returned. It's not return on capital, it's return of capital. If you give somebody $500,000 and you never get any cash back, you've made nothing. You can't argue that. The private company, that is a consumer goods service company, your risk is really high because they may never figure out how to get their customer acquisition costs down. That's why I came up with the royalty idea. In the beginning, everybody thought it was bad and they abused me for it. Now every shark wants to do Roya royalties because what you're doing there is you're slowly getting back your principal, and you don't make any money till the first dollar. After all your principal's returned. So my most successful deals are ones that have strong cash flows that can pay the 7% royalty. And eventually we sell the company. And some deals, like Blue Land, for example, my cost base on Blueland is zero. All my capital's back. The business is probably worth today 150 million. I bet you it's going to sell for half a billion because it's growing like a weed. And I own, I don't know, 3 or 5% of it, but all the capital is returned through royalties. That's a great deal. That's how you should structure venture investing.
Host 1
How do you think AI is going to change the structure of your businesses in the future?
Kevin O'Leary
I don't think it's Going to change the structure, it's going to change which ones I invest in. Because if you're not using AI tools now for customer acquisition, I'm not investing in you. In this season of Shark Tank, the first question I'm asking is, what's your customer acquisition cost and which AI tools are you using? Because I use them all. We know every single tool out there. I mean, what people don't realize, there's only five vertical stacks of AI that cost billions to maintain and develop. But off of those verticals come very interesting applications that you can buy a subscription for. For example, let's say, like in my case, I've got 12 terabytes of video and photographs. 12 terabytes in the cloud right now. That's because I've been doing television for 25 years. Every show, every photo, every, you know, that, that thing doing this wide angle shot, all of that sitting in the cloud. How do I index that? How do you even remember where that stuff is? And so recently I found a tool, a very, very specific tool that if you put it in a giant database in the cloud and you let the AI look, look at every frame of every photograph and every video and every film, it takes a long time, a couple of months. But once it's indexed, you can say, I recall a picture and I was on a paddleboard in Jamaica and a dolphin looked up at me and somebody took a picture. Bang, there it is on the screen with the index to where it is, or if it's a video, how long it is, what the resolution is, all of it just sitting there. And you can just say, click to download. You know how much time that's going to save. So that's a tool that really saves time. So we're able to do these real deep dive social media things now for our own platform of, you know, young Kevin, old Kevin, Kevin with a beard, Kevin with full hair, all that stuff. Because all of it is at a second away from us. And the guys that do that are over in the uae.
Host 1
Do you think you could be replaced by AI?
Kevin O'Leary
I think I already am. I have a AI, Kevin. My wife can still discern the difference on a screen, but in about a month she won't be able to because the only thing now that is the slight tell is the voice intonation. And there's a new model just came out last week that you have to basically let your phone listen to you for about three days. Just record your daily life for three days and let it learn off that. Because in a three day Period. You go through everything, sleep, you go through waking up, wake up, voice, dinner voice, drinking wine voice, coffee voice, all of it. And the tool then applies that to your AI model. That's an agent. I have a Kevin o' Leary agent. And I'm able to. It's remarkable. That agent's incredible. And we're starting to it.
Host 1
Do you think that could eventually replace your work hours, that you just have your AI, Kevin, go and go to work for you, answer emails for you, take phone calls for you, and if it gets to a certain point, then it alerts you and say, actually, Kevin, you should hop on this call just to make sure. But like, it does 90% of the
Kevin O'Leary
work, the filter, I think we're way off on that because I realize my best ideas actually happen. And very early in the morning when I'm on my bike riding at 6:45, something will hit me. That whole idea I'm so excited about because when I leave here, I'm on my way to go see the first iteration of the Parisian diamond necklace. And so I was on my bike in Miami, me, and I was thinking about that Kobe card. And Logan Paul, he's good friends with. I've done his podcast. I like the guy a lot. And another guy involved. And I was thinking, how could I raise that? How could I make a piece unique like my watches? And while I was on the bike, I have Nicole Weiss. She's the head of high jewelry for lvmh. And I just called her randomly and I said, nicole, listen to this. She said, I love it. It's crazy. How would we know how thick the card is? How would we know all that stuff? So we went to work on it and we just got in a group chat and we designed this thing based on how that card looks and which diamond should be where. But we had the full support of lvmh. And I thought to myself, would AI ever do that? Nah, probably not. They wouldn't have of the same reason to do that. I'm not sure that pure innovation comes from that. I think implementation, execution comes from AI, But I think the human being is so random in its thinking process that you're still going to need it. That's my iteration of it anyways, because I use a lot of AI tools now. And I'll give you an example. When one of my students, and this has been talked about a lot, sends me an answer to a question or an essay, I just look at it and say, AI slop. You get to see it. It's not Their voice, you know, the person they write this thing as. I just say, look, do it again. I don't mind you using AI to start it, but don't like this is bull. And I'm not even using an AI, you know, discovery tool because you have tools to discover AI in text too. So I'm not. We're. We're very. I think we're in the first inning and maybe it gets better and better, better. But I don't think it's going to be, it's going to be creative enough because people are trying to do this. Now. Let me give you an example. Write me a song with a country esque, kind of middle aged and it writes. It sounds like shit. I can tell right away that it's an AI song. Write me a song that sounds like Steely Dan, you know, younger Steely Dan, second album kind of thing. Sounds like.
Host 1
Some of them sound incredible though. I've been listening to Korn, the band as gospel and soul. It's amazing. And I'll play the. That on repeat. It is so incredibly good.
Kevin O'Leary
I get it. But you know, if you listen to the real thing and you find the nuance and the little distortion and the mistakes make it better. I think because I've listened, you know, I have a lot of music and I try. I listen to a lot of new bands and I listen to the AI bands. I mean, they sound so formulaic. They don't have, you know what makes great. I listen to a lot of jazz. If you go back and listen to even the 50s records, kind of Blue is the classic. The first version of that album was a mistake. It was about 10% slow. They recorded it on a broken recorder. They had two machines in the room and they released the one that was slow because when people tried to play against it, they said, I got to tune down here.
Host 1
What the.
Kevin O'Leary
This isn't in tune. Then they found the master tape that wasn't slow and they put the album out again. And yet you listen to those two things. They are definitely not AI. There's all kinds of little nuances and mistakes in there. And I think you could argue, well, maybe AI can make mistakes too. But that's where I think the creativity is lost. I don't know. Show me a commercial success so far with AI People want to go to a concert and listen to a machine, play something to them.
Host 1
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Host 2
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Lennar for sponsoring the Iced Coffee Hour. And back to the episode. This episode is in partnership with Airbnb, so Graham and I just wrapped up a trip. We were in Austin for a few days. We filmed episodes with Togi, Chris Camillo and Caleb Hammer and honestly, every time we're on the road, we're staying at homes on Airbnb. It's just become the default.
Host 1
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Host 2
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Host 1
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Host 2
Home I actually listed a spare room in my house on Airbnb and I was genuinely so surprised how easy it was to set up, how seamless the entire process was, and it actually made me some pretty good money. I would actually recommend this to anyone out there that wants to make a little extra cash on the side. It's honestly phenomenal. If you're thinking about hosting but want some help getting started, find a co host@airbnb.com host. I think a lot of people are probably wondering about finances as well, because people see you as phenomenal entrepreneur, a great investor. I'm curious, who do you think is the best investor of all time?
Kevin O'Leary
Well, the thing about that is it's only numbers because who made the most money? Remember, investment's very binary. You either make it or you lose it. And clearly Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, no one has been close to their success. And they had a very simple model. Cash flow. Charlie, he could never be bullshit into anything that didn't have cash flow. He didn't believe in anything that didn't have cash flow. And he would just say no, no, no. He was the no in Warren's yes. And they needed each other in the beginning. And then they got into their own discipline of buying things that have very long term stable cash flows. And that ended up being the right thing to do. The other thing I've learned is just buy the mark market, like betting on on hedge fund guys and stock pickers. There aren't too many good ones.
Host 2
So to the average person out there that's watching this right now, let's say they're making $50,000 a year, 40 to $80,000 a year, living all across America. How do they go from maybe month to month not really being able to save too much, to then being able to have discretionary spending to start to live a life of comfort? Like what is if you could instill one idea, one to them, that could hopefully bridge that gap, what would it be?
Kevin O'Leary
Well, the hardest part of that is the discipline it takes to decide that you're going to put aside 10 or 15% every week. It's so hard to do that because there's always the next pair of sneakers you want to buy that you don't need. People are weak. They don't have discipline, don't buy shit you don't need. And if you look at yourself and see all the clothes you have, you don't wear, you bought them because you had a whim for it or something. But you basically wear the same two pair of jeans and five T shirts. It's crazy that you would take that money and put it into something you're going to throw away in 20 months when you could have put it into the market. And the way you put it in the market, if you don't understand the market, you don't have a brokerage account, Download one of these apps that does it for you on your phone, link your bank account to it and just transfer in 10% each week. Obviously, the one I like is Beanstalks, but it's not the only one. There's plenty of them that'll do it for you. I like them. Really simple. And then if you start doing that two years later, you'll say, wow, where'd this money come from?
Host 2
At what income is it just impossible to build wealth?
Kevin O'Leary
I would say probably under $35,000. That's tough if you live in a major city because you're being forced to spend 12 to 1,500 on rent, which is very, very hard. But even in that, the discipline of not overspending because you're going to get yourself the real task there is not to go into credit cards, debt, it's tough.
Host 1
What jobs do you think those people should take?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, I think the job that gets you the most money now is if you have talents in social media for customer acquisition. I used to pay those guys 48 grand a year and now they're 250,000 because you can measure their work based on customer acquisition every week. So most of them become contractors. You know, they make half a million dollars a year because they know how to take content, turn it into a 59 second ad on social, and acquire 200 customers. That's, that's a very specific. So remember, everybody say you have to be an engineer. An engineer, an engineer. Now you want to be an artist again, write stories, acquire customers, know how the social media platforms work, know how to post on TikTok versus LinkedIn versus Twitter versus Instagram. Those people in their early 20s are so valuable now. So if you know how to use your phone, somebody wants to hire.
Host 2
So if you were to go back in time with the specific skill set that you currently possess, is that what you would do?
Kevin O'Leary
Or would you? Yeah, I would use my editing skills to make 15s, 30s and 59s and I would basically say, look, pay me, you know, 100 bucks for each customer I acquire for you, I'd make millions. I mean, I know how to do it now.
Host 1
You previously said that someone should spend 30% of their time outside of their comfort zone.
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah.
Host 1
What does that look like for you?
Kevin O'Leary
For me, that's going to be acting. I'm here in la, working on my next Project. The difference between feature film and television is massive. Most people don't think there's much of a difference, but there's a massive difference. It's completely different skill set, and I want to do more of it. So for me, it's going to be shoot a film every year. I don't mean, you know, know a television series. I mean a feature film that's going to get theatrical release. So that's. Everybody wants to do that. I'm going to let my performance be the judge for those agents, directors, producers, casters that have seen Marty Supreme. Nobody knew how it was going to come out for me. I think I've done. You know, no one's telling me I shit the bed on it, that's for sure. So I'm going to take that tape. That's my only role ever. And I'm going to say, look, I'd like to do this again. I want to be the antagonist. I think that role is far more interesting. It's far more interesting to be the bad guy because there's so many places you can go. There's so many twists and turns in being the antagonist of any story. Every story has a hero and has a bad guy. I want to be the bad guy. So that's what I'm looking at now is various opportunities for bad guy.
Host 1
Why are you so drawn to the bad guy?
Kevin O'Leary
It's so interesting you're reading these scripts. I've read a lot of scripts lately, and I look at them and I say to the director, that's not what the bad guy would say. This is what he would say. And they say no. So I find that with the writers and the directors, you get a lot more latitude to creating your role as the bad guy because the hero always has an outcome that's hard to change. They're going to kill the bad guy. They're going to get the girl, they're going to save somebody or something. You can't change that outcome. That's the core of the story. If it's a big action movie, it's an Avenger type thing. They gotta save the world. But the way the bad guy, during his interaction, he can go everywhere. And so basically what I find this is my own observation, is when you're the bad guy, you get a lot of latitude in every scene. When we were doing Marty supreme and with Ronnie Bronstein and Josh Safdie, who co wrote it, I'd say, guys, guys, guys, guys. He's got to say this, not that. And they said, yeah, okay, let's shoot it that way, too. So it was sort of like that whole vampire thing. Remember that? At the end of the movie, I don't know if you've seen it. We dreamt that up on my dock at my lake house. Because we're at the end of the movie, and I'm looking at the three of them. Eli Bush was there, and I said, guys, do you think if I was the richest guy in America, I would let this little screw me over this way? Do you think there'd be a chance that would ever happen? He said, what are you saying? I'm saying there's no way it ends this way. This kid has to die. They said, can't die. You know, we have a different ending. I said, well, then I'm going to bite his neck. And they said, what the are you talking about? I said, yeah, I'm going to tell him I'm a vampire. And they looked at each other and said, whoa. Oh, that's crazy. Let's go there. So it was sort of like bring the dark arts into it. Make him think, if there's even a 1% chance that this be true, that I'm a vampire. And that's where the line came out. I was born in 1601. That gave Milton Rockwell the satisfaction that he held the dark arts over this kid for the rest of his life. And you could see he. You know, Chalamet played it so beautifully because we did that in Japan. He freaked out. He kind of smiled and went, whoa. Like, that's crazy. And it was crazy in the moment we shot it. But to me, that's why you want to be the antagonist. You can explore many different directions where you can't if you're the hero.
Host 2
How many times did you have to do that scene?
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, that's one take. That one.
Host 2
Just one take. They didn't want to put you guys through that.
Kevin O'Leary
We did many scenes that were 50 takes, but that one was so crazy. That was one take.
Host 2
I'm curious, on Marty supreme, how much did they pay you?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, I don't even know. I mean, I couldn't buy protein with what they paid me. I mean, it was like I'd never acted before, you know? Know, the only question they had, are you a member of sag? I said, yeah, because I think I was the last guy cast. They couldn't find, you know, Milton. They wanted a real bad guy. And he just called me out of the blue and said, look, you got to come to New York. I said, no way. I'm sitting on the dock. I'm relaxing up here. I'll send you my plane, I'll pick you up, you come up here and we'll do it tomorrow morning. And they said, shit, yeah, let's do it. And then I really got into it. There is a weird story about that, though, that you should know. That script is the size of a phone book. And I hadn't really read it after they sent it to me and I forgot about it and I left it on the bar. And this guy named Gene McBurn, he got up at five in the morning. We have a lot of people staying at the lake. It's a big party every night. And he got up 5 o' clock to watch the sunrise. And he took the script with him, not knowing what it was or anything about the project. And he read it. And by the time I got to him at 10 in the morning, I went outside and he was sitting there saying, kevin, have you read this thing? I said, no, this is the craziest, most insane story I've ever read. It's whoever wrote this is a very sick, demented person. But you gotta be Marty, you know, You've gotta be the guy that what he meant was, was you've got to be the antagonist to Marty. You've got to be Milton Rockwell. And I said, I got to read this, right? He said, you got to read it. And I read it and I realized what he was talking about. He saw the force of good and evil between Marty and Milton as being the fulcrum of the whole story. And if you're not Marty, you gotta be Milton. That was his point.
Host 1
I'd like to see you as a Bond villain.
Kevin O'Leary
One. Yeah. I mean, you know, Bonds. I'm not going to be produced for years, so I have to do other stuff. I mean, for me, it's sort of. Here's the thing I learned this is tough. I came in at the top. I worked with an A writing team, an a director, a 24, the number one hot team in Hollywood right now. Buenas paltry. A huge budget movie. I don't know what it is to work on a dog shit movie. How am I going to do that? I've got to get another fantastic movie. I got to find another fantastic director. I mean, there's a lot of crap that's made. I don't want to work on that. I want to work on the El Supremo stuff. Now that sounds ridiculous to make a demand like that. But I don't actually need a job, so I want to do it because it's extraordinary. I want to do it because they're considering risking part on me based on the merit of my work. I want to do it because I'm a good actor. Not I don't. You know, it's not like I need. I'm not a starving artist. That's the problem.
Host 1
Are you going to get royalties from this?
Kevin O'Leary
I said to my agents, who I like a lot, their UTA guy named Jay Suris. I said, jay, why don't you let me negotiate the deal? I'll handle everything. The agency can still get its piece. He said, what? Are you out of your mind? I said, no. There's one thing I learned about Hollywood that a lot of people don't know. When you're negotiating on behalf of one performer, let's say it's me, and you're dealing with a network or a producer or you also have in your portfolio many other artists. So let's say a certain television network wants to hire me, and they're not meeting my agent's price or whatever it is, because in the end, these guys are about the money. It may go down like this. Give o' Leary what he wants and we'll get you X, Y, Z for that movie you're doing in your studio. I can't do that. They can't. And all of a sudden, bing, bingo. Everybody's happy. That's what these guys do in Hollywood. They trade assets all over the place. It's a dirty secret, but that's exactly how it works. So to be successful, you have to be under the wing of an agency that has a lot of assets and they're worth every cent, because you can't. I remember in season four, Shark Tank walking into whoever the president of ABC DC Television was then saying, don't need an agent. I'm going to handle this myself. Just you and me. He said, no, not doing that. I don't want to taint our relationship because we're going to have a bloody negotiation in season four. The show is on fire. It was growing geometrically. And I said, well, why don't just let me handle it? I'm a big boy. I have thick skin. He said, no, I've made a few calls. You're going to get a call. This episode is brought to you by White Claw Search. Great podcast pick, friend.
Host 1
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Kevin O'Leary
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Host 1
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Host 2
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Host 1
Hard seltzer with flavors. 8% alcohol by volume. White cloth seltzer works Chicago.
Kevin O'Leary
Chicago, Illinois. A guy named Burkus and then he's going to take you in to meet a guy named Jay Searris in about an hour. I said I don't need no stinking agent. They said, yeah you do. And I think you're going to like these guys and I think you're going to sign with them. And that's exactly what happened.
Host 1
What's been your toughest negotiation?
Kevin O'Leary
It's not around television, it's with government in. What I'm doing in real estate is so many moving parts. When you're building a $20 billion data center, it's tough. You gotta negotiate everything. And you need the senators, you need the governor, you need the mayor, you need the feds, you need ferc, you need everything. And I'm, I'm the guy sometimes that flies in there and sits down with the staffers of the senator. I say here's how it has to happen. And those are very difficult negotiations because they're public in some sense, they're complicated. The dollars are huge and you can't it up. Every piece has to work. I've never worked this hard in my life. But the deals we're doing now, I'm now the largest in North America. A company with land under agreement for Data center development. 26,000 acres. That's a lot. That's one hell of a ranch.
Host 1
What's the biggest screw up that you've had during a negotiation?
Kevin O'Leary
That's a good one. In the last 48 hours. There is a card out there that we made a deal on and the guy that sold it, who I did not know it turns out what he did is he. And I don't know this for sure yet, but I think we're going to find out. This is the case. He used my name to trade it sideways to somebody else. What's going to happen in the next few hours to him is he's not going to like it. It's going to be raining from the sky, lawsuits from hell. Because it's like the market in New York for diamond merchants. There is no paper, there's an agreement, there's a handshake and that stone is sold. It never goes sideways. And should you ever breach that hundred year old trust that's been generation, generation, you're banned from the industry forever. In cards, when you make a deal because you're working with people all over the world. When you finally come to a price and you say, are we done? And the other side says, we are, it's sold, it's over. And in this case, I've never seen it happen before. But he reneged. And I consider this contemporary art, modern art. The piece is now tainted because from my legal perspective, I own it. The other buyer, everybody that touches that card is going to know that I'm going to litigate for my legal claim. So that card is going to be very hairy for the next few years. Even though it's a very valuable card, it's probably going to become very famous because of the litigation, not the card. Everybody that touches that card, I'm going to sue them. Anybody that tries to be an agent, I'm going to sue them. Anybody that tries to auction it, I'm going to sue them. As far as I'm concerned, that's my card. Because the transaction took place.
Host 2
Were you on the phone or in person with this person? You guys agree verbally on in Price shaking it.
Kevin O'Leary
One of my partners was on the phone, and there was a witness as well. Now, because he's renewed, the only legal recourse we have is to bring a claim. I'm going to let the process run its course. But every other I know, every buyer of cards of this price on earth, I know who they are, and they also know who I am. And they know that I don't let this happen to me.
Host 2
What was the card?
Kevin O'Leary
I can't say. But you will find out soon enough.
Host 1
Why not get it in writing at that point?
Kevin O'Leary
There is no writing on cards. That's not how it works.
Host 1
Why? I feel like just with any other thing that you would buy, you would get a contract, you'd sign it.
Kevin O'Leary
The way it works is you're on the phone with someone in Malaysia or the Philippines. The card is. You've been discussing it for sometimes six months. You don't have an agreement on price. You're watching the markets move. You finally come to an agreement on price. The trust is unbelievable. You wire $13 million to that person while your representative is right at the table, and they pass over the card in its clam like that. When they see the money in the bank, that's it. You take the card, you leave, you go get it graded, or you put it in a vault, you get back on an airplane, and you fly with it. Whatever you have to do, that's how it's done. The trust is immense. The market is a well known market. You just don't breach. You don't do that. Nobody does that. Nobody does that. It's like a diamond merchant. If you did that in the streets of New York, your family would be banned for life. And the next generation, you just don't do it. I was stunned. I couldn't even believe it. I mean I just said no.
Host 1
This is after you already sent money.
Kevin O'Leary
No, no, no, no, no. We were actually in the process of setting up a global live broadcast. Wow. To actually. With a network I won't mention. But we were already. And from Paris another frame was being built for that car. And all of this was arranged over a one month period and everybody was flying to this location for the shoot which is going to happen at 5 in the morning, 8 o', clock, East coast time, New York time and then of course in the afternoon in Europe. It was going to be worldwide and this guy just went awol. We thought something bad happened to him. It turns out he was trying to trade it to somebody else after an agreement had taken place. I mean it's not going to end well in terms of how tied up that card's going to be. I don't know what the resolution is going to be, but for the next three, four, five, six, seven years, I think it's radioactive waste.
Host 2
Alongside cards in alternative investments you have quite a few watches. Is first of all, when you check the time, which wrist do you look at?
Kevin O'Leary
Well, left wrist is always local time, right wrist is wherever. You know the, the majority of the phone calls are going to be this day. In this case it's New York. So it's New York time on the right, LA on the left right now. And I do that when I'm in Dubai or Switzerland and sometimes I have three time zones.
Host 2
And so as a watch fanatic, let's say someone has a budget of 1,000, 5,000. We could throw 10 in there.
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah.
Host 2
And then 25 and maybe a hundred thousand. What is the perfect watch at those different prices?
Kevin O'Leary
Yeah, I get it. So, you know, it's a great question because I'm going to tell you a really interesting story about this. About five years ago, maybe it's six now, this woman came out and set a shark tank and she said can I talk to you for a second? I said sure. You know, we break between hits, we get about 20 minutes while they set up the next pitch. And she said we're having a problem with the two watch over. I said what's the problem? He said nobody can Afford them. This show's about inspiration, about inspiring, about getting. They start on the carpet. They want to become sharks. They want to become sharks. So you have to stop wearing watches no one can afford. On your left, you can wear whatever you want. On your right has to be an entry level watch. So what's entry level? She said, how about 200 bucks? I said, I don't wear a $200 watch. She says, you do now. Now. From now on, you're going to wear something that people can afford. And I thought, well, that's what you know. Anyway, she was right, because I immediately called Teddy Balazar and we started doing videos together of every price point under 200, 200 to 1,000, a thousand to 2,000. And Teddy introduced me to all these incredible watchmakers that make these amazing dials for like 1700 bucks. But if you're buying a piece, it's to shorten this narrative here because we've been going on for so long. But here's what I tell parents. They're always calling me up saying, my son is graduating, my daughter's graduating. What do I do? There are certain truths. Number one, tutor. You cannot go wrong with a Tudor. It'll last your whole life. The parent company's Rolex. People get it, but Tudor's different. It's very, very entrepreneurial in terms of case materials. You can get silver, silver. You can get ceramic, you can get carbon. They got beautiful, beautiful cases. And the black bay is an amazing. It's the precursor almost of almost every Rolex style. It's beautiful. Remember that these companies have been around a long time. Number two, Grand Seiko. Unbelievable quality. I mean, just a spectacular watch. And these are sub $7,000. They're going to last a whole lifetime. No question about. About it. There's other places to go, but those two represent, in my view, some of the greatest value on earth. Japanese watchmaking. It's credor. They cost a fortune, but they're also owned by Grand Seiko. The best advice I give is you go online and just look at any Teddy Balthazar, Kevin O' Leary video and you're going to find 400 ideas is. And I wear those a lot.
Host 2
Google estimates your net worth to be 400 million. I don't think that's the case. I think that you, based off of what you've said, have more. Is 400 million accurate?
Kevin O'Leary
You know what I learned again from my mother? Never boast about money or one day you won't have any. I never talk about my net worth. You know, I Just think it's the worst thing you can do. It's almost bad karma. Like, look at how much money I have.
Host 2
Well, it doesn't have to be boasting.
Kevin O'Leary
It could be, but I don't. I'm not like that. I just. I don't, you know, I don't need more money. I need more time. That's the way I look at it. I don't want to. With karma, I just never talk about it. People, I've seen estimates all over the place, but let me ask you this.
Host 1
What percentage of your net worth would you trade to be 20 years old again?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, wow. That's a hell of a question. Eh? I mean, I wish I could be 20 with what I have right now. I mean, the things I could do. The trouble is I wouldn't know anything. That's the big dilemma about this idea. It's what I know today and my experiences that make me what I am. And I wouldn't change anything. So I wouldn't even.
Host 2
Let's say you retain all of that
Host 1
and you just have. And you just. You just can't get 20 years old again. But you have to say, I'm gonna give up 90 plus percent.
Kevin O'Leary
But the risk of that, it's such a. It's a beautiful. A great movie script. The risk would be you get to go back, but you start again with the outcome. What would the outcome be? You get more life. You'd be like a vampire. You go back to 20, but you don't know what the outcome could be. You could have a horrible outcome. I like this outcome. I earned it. I made it myself. I made all those mistakes. And look at where I. I remember the first day of shooting. Marty supreme across from Timothee Chalamet with all those extras. And for a moment I thought to myself, how the hell did I get here? That was amazing. How'd that happen? And it's the cumulation of all the things that occurred during your life that got you to that point. So I wouldn't go back. I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't trade it for anything.
Host 2
So, some more rapid fire questions. What was your personal best Shark Tank deal?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, base pause, cat DNA testing, insane return.
Host 2
What's the worst pitch you've ever seen?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, I've seen plenty. I've seen a pitch where a woman sang to a water cooler and said she could divide the water into three elixirs that you could bottle and sell for $25. One that solved for jealousy. One that made you fall in love when you wanted to and one that made you more productive. And I said to her, you sound insane. She said, said, if I came here and told you I had an elixir full of cocaine and you drank it, would you invest in that? I said, no. Well, that's Coca Cola. Touche.
Host 2
Bitcoin price year end 2026 probably around
Kevin O'Leary
here because I'm not sure it's going to react until the Clarity act is. If the Clarity Act, I'm going to answer it this way. If the Clarity act act is approved, Bitcoin will probably go back to that $100,000 range.
Host 2
S&P price year end 2026 up 8% from here. Gold buy or sell right now?
Kevin O'Leary
Buy.
Host 2
Will AI replace more jobs than it creates?
Kevin O'Leary
No, it's going to create more jobs. Everybody, everybody's got it wrong. It's just like, oh, you know, television's gonna destroy radio. No, it's not. We just don't know what the transition is going to look like. AI is going to be such a powerful tool, it'll create new industries we haven't even thought of. That's what's going to happen.
Host 2
Should a year old buy a house or invest in the stock market with
Kevin O'Leary
that money, I would buy a house and I pay that mortgage off as fast as I can. It's always proven to be the best way to make money in America.
Host 2
At what net worth does life fundamentally change?
Kevin O'Leary
5 million liquid. Liquid.
Host 2
What would you say are the main four tiers of wealth where if you hit a certain amount, life.
Kevin O'Leary
Well, I tell everybody this. You should strive very hard if you're an entrepreneur, to have $5 million in T bills. Not in anything else, just t bills. Making 3.82% this morning, you know you've made it and you've safeguarded your family for the rest of your life. If you can get $5 million liquid in T bills. Most people that consider themselves very successful entrepreneurs do not have $5 million liquid in T bills. They don't.
Host 2
But what net worth should you be at to justify 5 million in t bills?
Kevin O'Leary
Well, you should be at. The first thing you should do is get to 5 million. Later liquid be worth $5 million liquid. That's far more valuable than anything else. Liquidity with wealth is actually a superpower. Most people say I'm very wealthy, but they couldn't raise a million dollars by 2 o' clock in the afternoon if they tried. It's tied up in all kinds of things they think are worth a lot. Until the shit hits the fan. The Plan is, if you're an entrepreneur, the hardest thing is to make the first million really hard. And when you make the first million, put it into bills. Just as hard but not as hard is to get to 2 million. 2 to 3 is actually quite easy because you figured something out. But where you get undisciplined is you start buying shit you don't need because your man needs to get to 5 million liquid. You have to have 5 million liquid to call yourself a successful entrepreneur. And I don't care who who disagrees with me. They're wrong.
Host 2
But if you have a net worth of $5 million, why would it all be in T bills instead of having it in S and P and international index funds?
Kevin O'Leary
Because whatever happens, you're safe. Not sure how to tackle your taxes?
Host 2
Are you sweating the small print?
Kevin O'Leary
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Host 2
So you say get to 5 million T bills and then anything after that,
Kevin O'Leary
after that, stick it in. And I go into stocks, go into alternatives. The nut is $5 million.
Host 2
And so the next net worth with the highest quality of life change would be what?
Kevin O'Leary
You know, once, once you get to 50, you don't even need any more money. I mean, people say I want to buy a yacht and all this crap, but my life didn't change after I had $5 million very much. I mean, it's just, you know, I have a lot more now, but it's other than watches. I don't do crazy stuff with money.
Host 2
What's one stock everyone should own?
Kevin O'Leary
Oh, that's. It's the index. That's what you should own. Because you can't ever get it right. Right?
Host 2
Timothee Chalamet. Is he a better actor or ping pong player?
Kevin O'Leary
He's a better actor. There's a lot of CGI in that. He can play ping pong, though. He's a pretty good guitarist too, by the way. That kid's pretty talented.
Host 2
Secret to building wealth in one sentence.
Kevin O'Leary
Discipline.
Host 2
That was one word.
Kevin O'Leary
It's pretty good.
Host 1
Yeah.
Host 2
What's your number one regret?
Kevin O'Leary
I don't have any. I wouldn't change a thing.
Host 2
Do you still want more money? And if so, how much?
Kevin O'Leary
No, I don't want more money. I'm very fortunate to get more money because I really focus on what I do. But I don't need more. I need more time.
Host 2
Would you retire for $10 billion post tax right now?
Kevin O'Leary
No. No. No interest in that.
Host 2
If you were to leave the viewer with one piece of advice. It doesn't have to be money, it doesn't have to be finance. It could be anything. What would it be?
Kevin O'Leary
Figure out what's signal in your life and focus on that and avoid the noise.
Host 1
Cool. Kevin, thank you so much. We'll link to your info. Thank you for getting it going. Really appreciate it.
Kevin O'Leary
Thank you.
Host 2
Thank you guys for watching.
Host 1
Until next time. By the way, if you enjoyed this episode, we just posted our next one early for members so if you click the join button you could begin watching our next episode right now. Really hope you enjoy it.
Hosts: Graham Stephan & Jack Selby
Guest: Kevin O’Leary
Date: March 29, 2026
In this candid and wide-ranging conversation, “Shark Tank” investor and entrepreneur Kevin O’Leary (a.k.a. “Mr. Wonderful”) joins Graham Stephan and Jack Selby to share his unfiltered predictions and prescriptive advice on the stock market, the coming impact of AI, housing, alternative investments, entrepreneurship, his philosophy on wealth, and much more. The episode features O’Leary’s blunt take on policy vs. politics, managing risk, and how truth-telling has shaped his life in business and beyond.
On Viral CNN Panel Moment ([00:33-05:17])
Media’s Motivation
AI Will Not Net Replace Jobs — It Will Create Industries ([01:13, 07:19-10:29])
Real Examples of AI Productivity Gains
Caution About “AI-Washing” Layoffs
The Path to Becoming a Millionaire ([10:29-13:10], [66:36-67:38])
His Portfolio Allocation ([13:12-21:17])
“Piece Uniques” Outperform ([18:24-20:41])
Crypto: Only Bitcoin and Ethereum Matter ([23:17-26:30])
Vehemently Opposed to Wealth Tax ([33:10-36:59])
What Truly Changes Life? Five Million Liquid ([93:00-95:29])
Discipline is The Secret
Telling Truth—Even When It Hurts ([39:23-47:17])
Hardest Truths: Firing People & Personal Critique
Living Outside the Comfort Zone ([69:24-70:47])
Career Highlights: Shark Tank and Marty Supreme
On investors’ blind spots ([26:35])
On creativity vs. AI ([57:53-61:18])
On crypto post-regulation ([92:02])
On luxury purchases and watches ([86:13])
“If you only tell the truth every day, you’ll never have to remember what you said, because it will still be the truth tomorrow.”
—Kevin O’Leary ([44:53])
For more, connect with Kevin O’Leary and explore resources linked by the Iced Coffee Hour podcast team.