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Money Expert: This Wealth Setup Only Happens Once…And It JUST Happened Again! | Chris Camillo
02:23:09
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- [00:01]
Chris Camillo
i've been waiting for this trade for over a decade and there's eight figures between the three eight figures in one day i was up five and a
- [00:09]
Jack
half million but how did you know when the rest of the market wasn't picking it up
- [00:16]
Chris Camillo
i think investors are making some of the most irrational emotionally driven decisions that i've ever seen in my life we're trying to like define the ai moment with what we know and that's the wrong way to look at it what is going to be created over the next twenty years what new industries will pop up i can't even imagine so how should the average
- [00:36]
Jack
person invest in twenty twenty six this
- [00:39]
Chris Camillo
is the last easy trade of the ai super cycle economies will change everything we know about business about assets all of that is going to radically change and the moment is now to place your bets and be part of that or be left out of that
- [01:02]
Jack
chris camillo thank you for coming on the
- [01:04]
Chris Camillo
iced coffee hour happy to be back
- [01:06]
Jack
so what's interesting is that you were right about amazon in our last podcast it's since been up about thirty to forty percent you were right about bloom energy you called it around dollar sixty it hit dollar three hundred you doubled down on robinhood at dollar thirty eight i'm really curious money did you make from those trades
- [01:28]
Chris Camillo
so there were probably three of the biggest trades in my life and i mean i'll just i'll just it was eight figures between the three and it's been the best few months that i've had in eighteen years so it's been big eight figures oh yeah yeah definitely eight figures off the three trades i think amazon was an eight figure trade alone so i mean last time i was on i told you i was doing this right like i've been waiting for this trade for years i've been waiting for this trade for over a decade and i always say having a prepared mind is one of the most important things an investor can do because it's usually during the years when there aren't any high conviction trades like that that you have to prepare yourself to make the move when one comes around and so i've been waiting for it but how did you
- [02:14]
Jack
know when the rest of the market
- [02:16]
Chris Camillo
wasn't picking it up why i think the one thing that i'm really good at is independent thinking and not getting sucked into market noise in other people's opinions so when i develop a high conviction thesis like i did with bloom with robinhood especially with amazon i'll generally spend anywhere between fifty and eighty hours doing deep dive due diligence so my thesis is baked i've seen the counter argument i know what the other side of that argument looks like and and i obviously don't agree with people that are on the other side and then when the market made their big move against amazon which was we don't believe that the two hundred billion is a good idea i thought that was patently wrong so i was like if that's the reason why they're going to take amazon down is because they're spending two hundred billion due to an opportunity that amazon sees right in front of their face i will take that the other side of that bet and amazon has a really long history of making prudent decisions when it comes to capex now i think a lot of investors these days i don't know if they don't remember fifteen years ago or twenty years ago right i don't quite understand what's happening with institutional and retail wall street i think investors are making some of the most irrational emotionally driven decisions that i've ever seen in my life and i think they're half baked and i love it as an investor because you really don't have an opportunity to make it big in the market unless there is another side of the trade where a significant portion of the market disagrees with you and then you have to be right so a lot of people
- [04:02]
Graham
are probably asking why are we bringing you back back back back on because i don't even know how many times it's been but every single time we bring you on you say something it ends up coming true you usually and probably what we would all agree would be a shorter time period than we would have originally thought right you can't necessarily time the market especially in the short term but i made like i mean i put in pennies relative to you right i made like thirty grand and i was like dang like if i'm making thirty thousand dollars like chris is probably raking it in i'm just curious what's the single biggest day you've
- [04:35]
Chris Camillo
had i think in one day i was up five and a half million over the past few months and i don't know if it was bloom energy or amazon or both but that was i think my biggest update what do
- [04:47]
Jack
you do on a day like that do you go out to dinner do
- [04:49]
Chris Camillo
you celebrate or no it doesn't impact me anymore the ups and the downs no longer impact me emotionally they just simply don't the big days up are like a nice little win and the big days down because i've had a few days where i've been down three million and they don't really hurt i'm just completely immune to this guys i've been doing this since i was thirteen years old as i told you before this is not about making money for myself anymore so it takes some of the pressure away i'm building towards things that i think are noble and hopefully will be big for other people my foundation other things i want to do in life but i'm not paying the bills with this money so i don't let it impact me emotionally what are you investing in now so i'm probably more excited right now than i even was last time i was on the show okay so i want you to think about the ai super cycle which i've been preaching for what three and a half years like a broken record has three big waves to it and i've been thinking about these three waves since day one so the first wave of the ai super cycle was like magic ai could think right like we had that wow moment the second wave was who builds all of the chips and the infrastructure to make ai work well the third wave that hasn't hit yet is less about the companies that are building the shovels and more about the companies that are using the shovels to leverage ai to do more with less and this is the last easy trade of the ai super cycle and it's a trade that i've been waiting for for three years so why is it easy you don't need to like predict a future sci fi world to get this trade right all you need to be able to do is detect companies that have a very high cost structure that will benefit from the efficiencies that ai is going to bring to us over the next few years so companies that have a of customer service that have a lot of admin companies that have a lot of logistics a lot of white collar workers that maybe do repetitive tasks these are the companies that are going to benefit most from what i'm calling the ai efficiency wave which is the last big wave of the early ai super cycle and i don't know when it starts i think it starts pretty soon i think it starts in the next year but i could be off it might not start for another two years so then in
- [07:36]
Graham
terms of your current portfolio portfolio you ran a lot of these stocks up right like bloom energy went up to three hundred now it's at like two hundred and fifty two hundred and sixty i'm curious are you selling bloom energy like as it's going up are you reallocating funds now to these new companies that you think will benefit from replacing these higher cost high repetitiveness low creativity cost you know you could remove all of that and supplement it with cheaper ai solutions like how are you moving your money around now yeah so first
- [08:06]
Chris Camillo
of all bloom energy is one of the biggest trades of my life you know i doubled down and i told you guys when it hit seventy seven that day right and now it's at went up to two hundred ninety some something i think it's like two hundred sixty today this is all over the course of a few months right at some point you have concentration risk so i did take some bloom energy off the table it was painful because they were short term gains now my goal when i have a stock do what bloom energy did is to try to hold that stock for twelve months so i at least get long term capital gains and you know that saves me i don't know twelve or thirteen percent tax hit so if i believe the stock will at least stay roughly the same i prefer to hold it rather than sell it before it hits long term capital gains now with bloom energy i have to have a source of funds right so it's one of my biggest winners and i did decide to take some off the table and i'm allocating even more to amazon than i did before i think that amazon is the ultimate beneficiary of the ai efficiency wave because it wins with ai now four ways so amazon obviously owns aws which is the infrastructure layer for artificial intelligence one of the big four it also owns trainium which is one of the largest ai chip companies in the world now and that actually makes ai compute cheaper for all of amazon's customers and indirectly adds a level of stickiness to aws so it really helps them there but with the ai efficiency wave amazon retail which is all the products they sell is going to benefit massively due to amazon's use of ai internally to bring efficiencies to logistics and to the entire shopping process and fourth most people don't understand this but amazon has now become the third largest digital advertising company in the world behind google and meta and they'll be able to leverage this ai during this efficiency cycle to help target ads better to enhance the creativity of advertising and then also to personalize those ads which i think is going to generate more revenue for amazon while also saving them and their customers money so with amazon it's not a single bet on ai it's it's an entire company wide efficiency flywheel that benefits amazon more than any other company i've been able to identify in the world so i've still to this date i'm more excited about amazon now than i was even a few months ago because it's so obvious that this ai efficiency wave is going to hit them and hit them really hard in the near
- [10:58]
Jack
future so a lot of people are going to wonder then is it too late to invest in amazon because you were last talking about it it was i think one ninety seven and now it's two hundred and fifty something give or take two hundred and sixty do you have a price target in terms of where you expect it to go or is it just as long as this continues you think there's going to
- [11:15]
Chris Camillo
be opportunity i don't trade price and i don't have price targets i exit my positions when the market at large agrees with me and the market at large definitely does not agree with me in its entirety as it relates to the way i think things will unfold with ai and specifically for amazon so so i still have a massive amazon long position and i always tell people every day you're repurchasing every single stock in your portfolio every second of the day so by holding a stock that is exactly the same as choosing to repurchase that stock that day so yes i repurchased my entire amazon position today so it's no different than someone who's coming in for the first time right i'm basically making a conscious decision to rebuy my amazon every day so i don't recommend what other people should do but but that's what i'm doing for myself but when you say you're really
- [12:14]
Graham
heavy into amazon what is really heavy mean like are you taking out a levered position are you in margin what does this look like what percent of
- [12:22]
Chris Camillo
your portfolio is amazon if you if you were to look at what the options that i have in amazon represent in amazon stock then amazon would be roughly seventy percent of my portfolio if you look at the options and the stock that those options control it's like a hundred shares per contract yes and amazon has been roughly seventy percent of my portfolio now for months and months so that's like not a new thing
- [12:51]
Jack
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- [13:13]
Graham
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- [13:21]
Jack
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Graham
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- [13:39]
Jack
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- [13:47]
Graham
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- [14:00]
Jack
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- [14:02]
Graham
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- [14:05]
Jack
products include compounded drug products which the fda does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality prescription is required see website for full details restrictions and important safety information individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride what are the top three companies you're bullish on besides amazon
- [14:26]
Chris Camillo
i'm really all in on amazon quite honestly i do still have numerous bets across that second wave of ai which is the infrastructure layer which is inclusive of energy companies like bloom energy chip companies data center companies as well as some companies that are involved with rare earths because this is all like part of the picture here i would say once you kind of move beyond a company like amazon which is a really concentrated position the other companies in my portfolio generally tend to be more diversified now robinhood would be the one exception to that robinhood is still a top thirty position for me and it's a position that i've added to since it kind of fell back into the seventies and i could see myself adding even more to robinhood over the course of the next few months what do you
- [15:20]
Graham
think is going on with robinhood stock because i've gone in like heavy into a few companies every single one of them has been right just the wrong time and robinhood is another one of those companies where like i went in super super heavy on around one hundred one hundred ten ish which obviously was a little bit rich but it's came down and now i'm thinking like if i bought it at one hundred ten why am i not stockpiling at like seventy five and i feel like i should be buying more of it and i'm curious like what is what what do you think has happened with robinhood
- [15:50]
Jack
why has it gone down if the market knows you bought and because of that it just is a bearish signal that everyone's like jack bought the stock there's no other way to sell it
- [15:59]
Graham
what happens if i short it then
- [16:00]
Jack
you know what's so funny jack bought this bond fund that i'm invested in and it was the same one and my bond fund had done really well and then jack bought in this bond fund and treasury yields spiked like as soon as jack bought in and now that bond fund is down i bet like it's supposed to pay you like
- [16:17]
Graham
three and a half percent or whatever and not change the price but the price actually changed of yield spiked as
- [16:24]
Jack
soon as he bought not tell me that's not just that it has to be more than just a coincidence when
- [16:31]
Chris Camillo
you make an investment you should have a thesis that you have relatively high conviction in so when the stock goes down as long as the information doesn't change as long as there's not new data that changes your thesis you should be you should have a higher conviction now at the current price rather than a lower conviction i think the big mistake that most retail investors fall into to is we always think that someone else knows more than us we think that if we make an investment and the stock starts to move the other way well i must be wrong well again you shouldn't have made that investment unless you have a really strong thesis that you think is being underappreciated by the rest of the market and if the market continues to underappreciate that you should get excited so like when amazon fell i got really excited you remember when bloom energy fell i was actually excited that day when i messaged the group i said guys i'm doubling down because i know why bloom energy dropped it was a thesis that someone had on oracle and i know that that thesis is wrong so once i realized why people were selling bloom i got really excited to buy more bloom because i knew the reason why they were selling bloom was wrong at least according to my thesis so i think investors are just way too willy nilly these days trading in and out of stocks because they saw someone else did it and they don't develop their own thesis their own convict and that's just really important so like i have a huge position amazon and i actually want the stock to fall because i'm so confident in the timeline i have for amazon over the next year or two i would actually be happy to lose a lot of money in the short run so that i can go even deeper and more levered into amazon at a lower price so how much we we
- [18:25]
Graham
use the term dry powder do you have because if the stock price falls you're going to want to buy more but then how much cash do you have sitting on the sidelines if you're already taking out leverage position taking on
- [18:36]
Chris Camillo
margin yeah so my my leverage currently sits not counting for stock options just how much i'm borrowing on margin my leverage is actually at like forty percent borrowing which is really low for me right now today as you guys know i will often drive that leverage up to eighty or ninety percent and times a hundred percent and i i have there have been times that i've been margin called every day because of that right and i have to keep a close eye on it because i'm borrowing tens of millions of dollars in margin like fully margined account when i have a high conviction thesis so i feel really comfortable that i'm only forty percent margin because if the market falls because of iran or some some person has some you know knock on amazon and amazon falls assuming that i think that information's bad y love that because i would just go deeper into amazon i would borrow more money on am on
- [19:32]
Jack
margin to why not just have jack buy more amazon stock and drive the
- [19:36]
Chris Camillo
price down well that that's an option as well and by the way even when i'm capped out on margin and i don't i want to be very clear i'm a lunatic okay like like nobody should mimic what i do unless it's inside of like a designated high risk high reward what i call a big money account with money that they can afford to lose entirely but even when i'm capped out on mar do have one last option which is you know if i start to lose that money and i'm getting margin called and i want to go in even deeper i just start to sell the equity and i go all in on highly levered options so there's always like another layer of risk that i could tap into fortunately i've never gotten so down that road and have been wrong so many times to where i've tapped out that last layer of risk and i've gone broke and i think i'm at a point in my life where i would never will never allow that to really happen at this point listen guys i don't make these decisions quickly as i said i spend dozens of hours sometimes upwards of a hundred hours of research before i make these decisions on a single trade what about sweetgreen so you obviously saw my tweets today i missed a big trade that really pissed me off last month and this is a social arb trade that i pride myself on never missing but there has been a big trend the last year towards health and health influencers and if you have anything that's healthy it gets amplified by the world of health influencers on tiktok so there's been a movement towards healthy hydration and what is the highest perceived healthy hydration that one can get coconut water right i was so consumed by all my ai trades the last few months that i wasn't paying attention to the fact that coconut water started to trend heavily on tiktok because coconut water has been around forever so i wasn't really tracking it but it did start to trend really hard with influencers and the company i think it's vita coco had the biggest earnings they've ever had and popped like i don't know thirty five or forty percent on earnings day and all of the data was right there for you to see if you would have simply searched the word coconut water on google trends or vita coco or any of those keywords you would have seen a hockey stick up the last three or four months so it's like it this is not hidden alpha this is alpha that all you have to do is to be prudent and not lazy to look for it and it's right there in front of you i miss that trade and since then i've been really aggressive looking for social arb trades outside of like technology and ai where i've been so consumed for the last couple of years well one of the companies that i found and i always look for companies that are releasing new products or in this case a new menu item right when a company releases a new item sometimes it has potential to radically change the entire perception of that company sweet greens is a company that has been doing terrible the last couple of years they've had a lot of issues with their menu being stale and the stock is down like eighty eighty or eighty five percent so when i saw that they were coming out with wraps i got really excited why as you guys know i own restaurants and something happened this last year where we started selling a chicken caesar wrap at one of my restaurants it's been around for twelve years this has not only become the number one selling menu item at my restaurant chelsea corner in dallas it is the number one selling product that we've had in twelve years so when i saw that sweetgreen was going to start selling a chicken caesar wrap wrap one i realized for the first time their menu was about to become portable two i knew there was already huge momentum around the chicken caesar wrap trend it's been going on now for a couple of years sometimes it's better when a company chooses not to try to invent a trend because that's really risky but just ride to a trend that's already exist so sweet green came out with this four different wraps okay flavors of basically chicken caesar wrap and they had a massive influencer campaign and to date it's driving like a lot of controversy which is actually really good some people are saying that the wraps they're getting are a little smaller than the ones that they're seeing in the influencer tiktoks but most people are saying they love it and i've been interviewing sweetgreen reps at sweetgreen stores and universally they're telling me that just within the last ten days it's already twenty percent of their sales is this wrap so it's still early on in the hype cycle in terms of content creators talking about this but there were some big ones that came out this weekend and i think we're in the early stages of potentially a game changing moment for this dead company sweet grain so if they even experience moderate success with these wraps that could be a game changer also the company has a twenty three percent short interest so this is a really exciting trade for me i have a massive long position levered in sweetgreen it's still speculative because we're going to have to see how the next few weeks plays out but based on what i've seen so far in the first ten ish days of this product launch it's showing all the signs of a viral product that could be a game changer for
- [25:33]
Jack
the company can you move the market because i saw sweetgreen was up seven percent today which coincides with you tweeting
- [25:40]
Chris Camillo
about it yes i did move the market today and so i think it's really from an ethical and moral standpoint and i pride myself on this i will never sell into a move that i created so i have a large position in sweetgreen now i think the sec requires you to hold it for three days after you kind of do something that could move the market i will hold this position likely for many weeks to see it play out so i'm not selling into that move that happened today when i tweeted about sweet grain and the wraps i'm actually pretty excited about this trade and i feel that it's real and could turn into something special but we'll have to see how it plays out so how much
- [26:27]
Graham
volume do you think got pushed to sweetgreen because of your tweet i think
- [26:31]
Chris Camillo
we're over double the volume today the last time i checked and that was before the market closed so at least
- [26:36]
Jack
double the volume yeah i don't think it would take that much to move sweetgreen because i think they're a billion dollar market cap but there can't be that much volume every day in sweetgreen
- [26:46]
Chris Camillo
there's not that much volume and you know over the last couple years unless i'm talking about amazon who knows i mean i do have a few billionaires i know that kind of follow the show i have a lot of big funds like i have fund funds that i know manage forty billion that follow the show i have another fund that twenty five billion that follows the show so like you know we could theoretically but those guys don't move that quickly right they don't see a show and
- [27:13]
Jack
just five they might imagine a fund manager who's like yo guess what chris camillo just said we're going all in
- [27:19]
Chris Camillo
i have because because at ticker tags i spent five years on wall street kind of helping a lot of hedge funds understand conversational data sets there are a lot of pods throughout funds that follow me but they don't manage more than like like twenty or thirty million each we have started to move markets and i i like i said i take that really seriously i will never sell into a move that i created like that that is just something that i will never ever do like i first of all it's illegal but beyond it being illegal it's not something i would ever do to other investors let's
- [27:53]
Graham
just say you did how much money do you think you could make an
- [27:56]
Chris Camillo
incredible amount of money hundreds of millions if i did if i chose to do that but then my reputation would be ruined people would hate me it it's even if i didn't have any sense of moral value like i i that would be a horrible way to live like terrible thing to do i don't i can't imagine anything worse to do in the white collar world than to literally you're basically just skimming money you're stealing you're stealing money you're stealing
- [28:24]
Graham
i didn't say that he should i'm
- [28:25]
Chris Camillo
i'm just it's a no it's a joking question listen listen it happens every day it there are a lot of people that are finance creators that that is their entire strategy i see it it disgusts me it disgusts me that they're allowed to do it and not being aggressively pursued by authorities like i hate it and you know it's i'm the opposite of that what are your thoughts on sandisk listen i i'm i'm along all the memory companies right so i bought the south korean index so like like i'm technically i think invested in every single memory chip company do you remember the last random company i talked about on your show rogaku i mean you know that company's doubled since the show and i think i was like one of the first american investors to invest i had to have schwab add the ticker you know they scan with three d imagery a lot of these memory chips before they hit the hyperscaler racks so anything across the infrastructure chain from artificial intelligence i'm invested in in one way or another so even though i'm most excited about this ai efficiency wave that i think will hit in the next one to two years and i think the market once it realizes that that's going to hit they will front run it so it could happen any week or any month now that doesn't mean that the second wave of the super cycle which was infrastructure won't continue to benefit fit and rally so i'm just invested quite honestly across all of artificial intelligence this is the trade of my life i think it's a trade of everyone's life and that's why i've been so outspoken about it through every fomo like every blip of trying to scare us out of the ai trade i've been doing everything i could to kind of educate people on the fact that that you might only get one or two of these in your entire life so not to necessarily mirror my trades but spend the time to do your own homework if there was one time in your life to cancel other things and research and study and make big decisions it's now because i don't know what happens after this we might be in a prolonged period of time when it's very difficult to find alpha in the market after this big super cycle ends and so like now's not the time to just be laissez faire like now's the time to dig in deep and make your bets
- [31:03]
Jack
so how should the average person invest in twenty twenty six this episode is
- [31:07]
Graham
in partnership with airbnb graham and i are always traveling for the podcast we were just in nashville filming a few episodes there and let me tell you the food was incredible i had the absolute best appetizers i've ever had there was the this dough ball and these steak skin potatoes it was incredible but let me ask you this do you ever think about your place back home when you travel when you're gone for days or even weeks at a time you can list your space on airbnb so it works for you instead of
- [31:31]
Jack
just sitting empty and if you've ever considered listing your space but you weren't sure how you'd manage everything while you're away well that's exactly where airbnb's co host network comes in with this you could partner with a vetted local co host who has hosting experience and can help take care of the important details for you you a co host can
- [31:46]
Graham
manage the reservations communicate with guests and handle the on site logistics so everything runs smoothly while you're traveling if you
- [31:53]
Jack
have upcoming travel you probably don't think twice about your home sitting empty but you could bring in some extra cash while you're away i kid you not
- [32:00]
Graham
a couple years ago before i had all of the rooms in my house filled up with roommates i actually listed a room on airbnb and the entire process was genuinely so easy the extra cash was amazing and i was genuinely just so surprised at the simplicity of the entire process if you're trying to make it take some extra cash on the side i couldn't recommend airbnb more if you're ready to host but need a little bit of help find a co host at airbnb dot com host
- [32:23]
Jack
so how should the average person invest in twenty twenty six i think we
- [32:27]
Chris Camillo
all have to come to terms with the fact that enterprise is going to continue to get bigger we're going to redefine economies i think think the most exciting thing about this next wave of the ai super cycle is that it's likely to be broad based meaning that i think unlike the last wave of the cycle where we had fifteen or twenty companies that kind of benefited most and sucked up all of the energy from the stock market so many companies will benefit from the ai efficiency wave but part of the reason why they're benefiting is because they're lowering their cost and a lot of workers are going to get laid off as part of this cycle and are going to have hard times so one of the ways to defray your risk against that is to be invested in the companies that are benefiting from that those efficiencies of not of having to have less labor right they become more efficient their margins go up they grow faster in return the market i think is likely to reprice multiples market wide higher meaning that we can see the entire market lift as a result of this if all the companies left in the market become more efficient that's exactly what happened during the dot com cycle right if you go back to the nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties the average market pe was like single digits and then it was like low teens then high teens and then it grows into the twenties well it's not because the market's becoming overvalued necessarily it's because the companies that comprise the market are now better those companies are growing faster they're tech companies they have eighty five percent software margins so the dynamics of what the stock market is is fundamentally changing over the course of time and if you look what ai has the potential to do it's another full step up so i think there's never been a time in our life where it's more critical to be invested just to be invested the degree that you want to take on active investment that's a personal decision but it's insane not to be invested in the market like my entire passion in life is to have every human in the world part of the investor class for this exact reason because if you're not part of it you're going to get left out and it's a really scary
- [35:07]
Graham
thing so in terms of investing in the market most people watching this most people following the channel are very safe investors they want to invest in like the total stock market maybe some bonds some treasuries some it's a well diversified portfolio you will come on here and say people need to be invested in risk assets what percent generally speaking and how do you know what qualifies as a risk asset and what technically does
- [35:38]
Chris Camillo
not i think when we talk about like a risk portfolio or like a higher risk higher return bucket of money that you have either inside of your account or preferably separated into a separate account i think it's money that you're not afraid to lose i think a risk asset means more concentration so rather than being totally diversified maybe you're making making more concentrated bets maybe you're making bets in companies that have a higher risk reward profile so you know maybe when openai gets on the stock market or anthropic will these be the next twenty trillion dollars companies maybe or will they go away we don't really know right and it might not make sense to invest from your normal portfolio into a company like that but if you have a bucket of money that's designated to be higher risk higher reward then then you you're willing to take those bets so concentration using leverage investing in you know higher beta companies meaning companies that fluctuate more right that have higher upside but higher downside those would be risk assets and you have to think about that money differently otherwise you'll be afraid to invest and when you do invest and things start to go wrong you'll make bad decisions you'll pull your money out out out of fear which is always the wrong thing to do
- [37:01]
Jack
when is the last time you've been
- [37:02]
Graham
wrong if you're a small business owner like us you know that there are constant headaches between payroll taxes onboarding compliance benefits and just trying to keep everything organized it feels like there's something that always needs your attention and the worst
- [37:14]
Jack
part is that all the admin work actually takes time away from growing the business that's why we're so excited to partner with today's sponsor gusto for those unaware gusto is an online payroll and benefits software built for small businesses is it's all in one remote friendly and incredibly easy to use so you could pay hire onboard and support your team from anywhere i actually used gusto way
- [37:35]
Graham
before we ever partnered with them back in twenty twenty when i created my first ever s corp back when i first started working with graham i had no idea where to start from tax filings to benefits to deadlines it was extremely overwhelming fortunately actually my cpa told me about gusto i signed up and every single thing since then has been
- [37:53]
Jack
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- [38:10]
Graham
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- [38:23]
Jack
so if you're ready to join four hundred thousand other small businesses try gusta today at gusta dot com iced in get three months free when you run your first payroll again that's three months free when you run your first payroll at gusto dot com iced with the link down below in the description one more time that is gusto dot com iced with the link down below thank you so much now let's get back to the episode when is the last time you've been wrong you know i
- [38:48]
Chris Camillo
i i don't remember like i i i make bad trades here and there sometimes i decide to press an existing trade and then the market comes out and does something or says something about the company i'm invested in whether it was bloom or amazon that temporarily loses me a lot of money so there was a scary moment in the last year when my portfolio was down seventy percent i think close to seventy percent total portfolio meaning like like my total portfolio was down seventy percent which was wild and yet i disagreed with the reason it was down i think it was shortly after one of our shows when maybe during the tariff right before the tariff stuff and so i vehemently disagreed with other investors that were taking the market down and it was really difficult for me when my my portfolio was down that much to press yet again which is which is what i did fortunately as we know it worked out right you know but from that moment my account's ten x so you know when my account was down seventy percent i don't want to give out exact numbers but i know the number in my head my account is ten x since that show of yours which is which is pretty wild that was a low moment and now i'm at a high place impressing again so we'll see what happens but again the thing that gives me anxiety is missing out on this mega wave that i think is about to hit because i don't know what comes after that guys i don't know if i'm going to get another opportunity to press this hard into something that i have so much conviction in like if amazon triples or doubles from here as part of the ai efficiency wave like what's next what's the next big driver for the market i don't know maybe there will be something but i'm telling you guys these super cycles just don't hit that often they don't happen every few years they happen like every ten to fifteen years maybe twenty years now when it comes to
- [41:07]
Jack
valuations though i am curious because we got a lot of have bears in the market as well we have michael burry who said the stock market is minutes away from a bloody crash stocks are still hitting record highs we have a k shaped economy and people are comparing this to the nineteen ninety nine dot com bubble that we're in that final run up phase before everything collapses what is your argument against that and
- [41:33]
Chris Camillo
why could they be right okay so they're basically saying that the market is overvalued dude i'm saying that the market is uneven i'm saying you know they have a big issue i think with the fact that fifteen or twenty stocks are carrying the entire market i look at it differently maybe fifteen or twenty stocks are the only companies that have earned the right to carry the market market interest rates were basically nothing in twenty twenty one money was free that created a really bad environment when money was free everybody won right bad stocks good stocks if you were a company you can borrow money for free and even if you didn't generate outsized returns you were winning with leverage so that was a really dangerous time now interest rates are higher which again these guys think is a bad thing i actually think it could be a really good thing that interest rates are higher and the borrowing cost is higher because when you have a higher rate environment what it does is it punishes bad companies and it rewards great companies so let's say you have two companies company a and b and they're both generating ten percent on their money through whatever it is that they sell interest rates are four percent for them to borrow money right now let's say that the cost of capital jumps from four percent to eight percent which for a lot of companies it has for company a that's really bad because now instead of making a six percent margin on their money right they're borrowing at four but they're generating ten percent returns they're only generating two percent so they're generating a third of what they were before that's terrible and that's how these guys look at the market but how i look at the market is if we have something as big as this ai super cycle and some companies are figuring out a way to increase their return on capital from ten percent to let's say twenty percent which has definitely happened for a lot of companies then the company that is borrowing money now at eight percent but now generating a return of capital at twenty actually actually doubled what they're getting in the market because now they're generating twelve percent net so even though interest rates and the cost of borrowing has increased because of the ai super cycle they are now still benefiting so what this does is it really punishes the companies that are not able to grow quickly because of this new ai cycle that we're in and not able to expand their margins and i love that because as long as you're willing to pick the winners it's a winner take all market for now but again once the efficiency cycle starts to hit meaning all of the companies or maybe not all but more than twenty will start to see the benefit of ai as they're able to operate more efficiently so even if they're not necessarily growing that fast even if their growth rate is slow they'll be able to generate meaningfully more profits i think we'll see a broadening of of the beneficiaries in the market from ai and that could be the next leg up that's my thesis at least and we'll see who's right it might take a couple years for that to play out but i will say this in the interim if the market drops it doesn't necessarily mean that they were right if the market pops back up right because we've seen the market drop now what five times over the past two years pretty significantly in terms of the quickness of the drop due to one fear or another another that ultimately resolved themselves and turned out to not be correct and how
- [45:30]
Graham
could you then be wrong with your predictions like what is the strongest argument against what you just said yeah so
- [45:35]
Chris Camillo
i think i think the thing that worries me the most is this gap between the ai efficiency wave when every company starts to lay off employees to operate more efficiently and the time when they realize that now they can start to grow again by expanding their company or when other people step into the market and create new companies and new industries and that employment gets redirected in newer better higher paying more creative jobs i can't fully assess how large that window is going to be that gap gap and if the layoffs come in too big and too quickly and ceo's and entrepreneurs and the government doesn't come in to kind of patch that gap or redirect employees to new industries and new companies and expansion that could create a pretty meaningful recession that would hurt the market at large that's the number one thing that would keep me up at night night as an investor that's heavily levered long in the market what
- [46:48]
Jack
about treasury yields though going up to the highest level since two thousand seven i think the twenty year or ten year was as high as like nineteen
- [46:56]
Chris Camillo
ninety eight i like it for this reason i already gave i like it because it punishes losers and rewards winners
- [47:05]
Jack
but what do you say for the investors that start to question wait a second if i could get theoretically let's just say six and a half percent on a thirty year treasury maybe i take some profits from the stock market and put it in a treasury instead there becomes a point where it just disincentivizes investment in companies why would you take the risk because i've seen some where it says the risk reward of the s and p five hundred is now negative when you account for treasuries paying five and a half percent graham
- [47:33]
Chris Camillo
everything that you're saying is historically true but what we're going through right now is not we've never seen it before right this sort of growth so yeah that would be a real issue if we were just going to hop along and grow at normal rates and the market was going to be the market but we have something that's about to hit and redefine what every economy on earth looks like we are about to see efficiencies that we have never seen in the history of mankind we are about to see every company on earth become meaningfully more productive than they thought would was humanly possible five years ago i think that people are looking at this the wrong way and that ai is like the main character in this story and interest rates are just like a sideshow character right and we're paying attention to the wrong thing so in a normal environment you're correct historically you're correct correct interest rates go up you can you can generate more from your money in a safe environment why would you want to take the risk to get an extra point or two but i don't think you're taking the risk to get an extra point or two i think you're taking that extra risk to be part of what is the most interesting high growth efficient capital market that we've ever seen in our lifetime and i think that's going to last for at least a few more years i don't know where it goes after that that so this is just not a normal environment and i'm not treating this like the nineties or the two thousands or the two thousand and tens i'm treating this like something special because in my mind that's where we are right now with artificial intelligence how do
- [49:24]
Jack
you think kevin warsh is going to approach that situation i don't really care
- [49:28]
Chris Camillo
because like he's not a king there are twelve board members that get the vote he cannot do anything that is meaningful enough to scare me because ultimately i don't care about a quarter of a point here a half a point there when i'm looking at companies that are going to double their productivity triple their productivity again i think people have lost the narrative i don't care about a quarter point i care about a warehouse that for the first time in sixty years is going to operate fifteen percent more efficiently because what that is going to do to that warehouse's bottom line is meaningfully more important than what a quarter or half point interest rate move is going to do and again i understand why people are so concerned about the fed because it's all we cared about the last eight or nine years but that's when the fed was the story right yeah when when you could lower interest rates and have every company on earth just borrow free money i get it but that's not where we are now guys like dude what's happening and it changes every week i mean you saw what citadel ceo ken griffin in not so many words he realized that ai is basically now able to do everything that his company does which is insane by the way he manages one of the most sophisticated financial institutions on earth and he's saying that ai it's not just that it can do it but it can do it in a fraction of the time better than his employees can do it and he's shook because he's finally realizing what's about to happen he's seen a lot of lot what blew my mind is that he wasn't shook twelve months ago when i was shook by this like how is and this is what's so fascinating about this market it's so inefficient you know i was on a plane ride here they're having the commercial real estate annual convention in vegas and the entire plane was full with cre bros but they're older guys though right they're in their fifties sixties i'm looking around going these guys control so much wealth the collective amount of companies that they control is insane and i bet outside of maybe using chatgpt here and there they don't even have a clue what ai can do for their company and it's like we're still not seeing it yet as a market we're not seeing it if ken griffin could come out and make a statement that he should have made a year ago if he was just properly paying attention then how about everyone that's underneath ken griffith griffin again guys he he manages the most sophisticated biggest fund in the world and he's just realizing this like this month
- [52:26]
Jack
but doesn't that also mean that the average person sitting in their living room could have the same capabilities as ken
- [52:31]
Chris Camillo
griffin yes that's what's the game changer and so like everyone's so concerned about the massive job loss that might or might not be coming i'm concerned as well but no one is equally hyped about the unlock of millions and millions of idea people around the world who for the first time in human history can execute their idea for pennies on the dollar so anything that lives in your mind any industry any company any any solution to any problem on earth we have lots of people that have ideas of how to solve problems historically there's been so much friction to actually create a real viable solution and deploy that solution into the real world from that idea that was in your head and for the first time in history now we're removing essentially all of the friction what is going to be created over the next twenty years what new industries will pop up i can't even imagine we're trying to like define the ai moment with what we know and that's the wrong way to look at it because truthfully we're going to look back at twenty years and think we were dinosaurs in twenty twenty six economies will change everything we know about business about enterprise about valuations about assets about growth rates all of that is going to radically change and the moment is now to place your bets and be part of that or be left out of that and we're yet we're concerned about a quarter rate interest rate hike like like it i love it that you guys and everyone else is concerned about that because that's a tension that you're not putting towards figuring out what companies will benefit most once this efficient efficiency wave hits in about eighty year because that's where i'm focused and i like that other investors are not focused there because they are going to hit that game late i'm hitting that game
- [54:42]
Graham
now so what opportunities do you think are available then for the average person outside of investing with the new efficiency wave with a lot of layoffs potentially happening with these companies being able to operate at lower costs what kind of opportunities should the average person be taking
- [54:57]
Jack
advantage of and really quick when jack and i first started the iced coffee hour we were winging it we had no idea what we were doing every day was a brand new challenge that's why if you're starting or growing your own business you know how valuable today's sponsor is because you get it and that would be shopify if you've spent
- [55:14]
Graham
any time on the internet chances are you already know what shopify is but in case you don't shopify is essentially an all in one business platform they support millions of businesses worldwide from major brands like mattel and gymshark to entrepreneurs who are just getting started and here's something that's crazy you've probably actually already used shopify but maybe had no idea because if you've shopped online in the us there's a really good chance it was on a shopify store because they power about ten percent of all e
- [55:39]
Jack
commerce in america i think one of the best things about shopify is that they give you access to a complete design studio with hundreds of ready to use templates to build a beautiful online store that perfectly matches your brand there's no coding needed and their ai tools even help you write product descriptions and enhance your product photos if you're worried
- [55:57]
Graham
about getting exposure to your store don't be because shopify actually makes marketing extremely
- [56:02]
Jack
simple with easy to use email and
- [56:03]
Graham
social media campaigns campaigns helping you connect with customers wherever they are and it gets even better because they handle literally everything from inventory to shipping to returns so you can just focus on your business the strategy the important stuff while they handle all of the complicated stuff you do not want to deal with
- [56:18]
Jack
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- [56:37]
Graham
is down below in the description thanks again to shopify for sponsoring this episode what kind of opportunities should the average person be taking advantage of the biggest
- [56:45]
Chris Camillo
opportunities we've ever had as humans all you have to do is take a few months of your life and make a conscious decision that you're going to go all in on becoming proficient at utilizing ai tools and understanding understanding how to solve problems with artificial intelligence because the majority of business owners the majority of executives outside of the biggest companies in the world are super intimidated by ai right now and they're just starting i think over the next twelve months they're going to come to terms with the fact that they can't avoid it anymore and they need to embrace the it if i was just a regular person i would spend six months becoming a top one percent person in ai just just by self learning then i would go to where wealthy business owners hang out i don't care if you're going to conferences like this one in vegas right now and go the hotel bar and literally just start walking up to old guys that are likely business owners or c level execs introduce yourself and say i am so and so i just spent six months becoming hyper proficient efficient at being able to utilize bleeding edge ai tools to solve problems with ai and over the next three years your business is going to have so many issues and i'll be able to solve those issues for you for pennies on the dollar i don't know how many people you have in your company that are hyper proficient right now in the ai world but i am can we talk and i would have that conversation over and over until one of those guys goes i don't even know what i'm going to use you for but we are hiring you next
- [58:28]
Graham
week it's so funny because every single person that we ask this question says the exact same thing it's not just you it's grant cardone we had grant
- [58:38]
Jack
cardone that went did you see that tweet on x got over a million views him saying if you want to make a million dollars a year all you have to do is find ten people that will pay you eight thousand dollars a month to implement ai in their business that's a million dollars a
- [58:55]
Chris Camillo
year but guys i said the same thing on your show and got four million views in two days on x or the same statement i said you
- [59:03]
Graham
make that's maybe where brent got it
- [59:04]
Chris Camillo
from that's probably he stole it from me i think he stole it from me because yeah because what i said was that you can make half a million dollars a year okay basically doing exactly that just i said you go into a company company and you say give me one problem that you have and the problem could be as simple as we're missing phone calls every night and because we're missing those phone calls because we close at five or six they call one of our competitors create an ai widget to answer those calls figure out what the issue is immediately send responses out inform the entire company so the next morning you already have a lead sheet you're already engaging with that customer and you never lose that customer you could potentially increase a company's revenue by ten or fifteen percent small businesses h vac companies plumbing companies doesn't matter what it is you can just go company to company and say i'm going to fix simple problems like that for you put them on a monthly retainer and make half a million dollars a year just having ten clients just having that's it that thing went viral next because no one believed me and everyone all the haters came out and said it's not that easy to create ai widgets this agentic ai is not that easy you're lying to people and it's you're you're and that's why it
- [60:21]
Graham
went viral give me an example of
- [60:22]
Chris Camillo
what you're talking about i was in hawaii doing this film shoot for the alpha school which is an ai school in austin with this guy bill perkins bill's crazy i love bill do you
- [60:34]
Jack
know bill yeah we had him on
- [60:35]
Chris Camillo
a podcast no way okay that guy is crazy he is an energy trader but he's kind of like a nerd too and he he we're sitting on the edge of a cliff watching surfers after the shoot and he's telling me he has these twelve ai agents that can do anything from his cell phone and he's really proud of the fact that he created this system to basically look at any website or piece of writing in the world and synthesize it to be much better to show you where you're miscommunicating you're doing things the wrong way he's like give me the worst website that you know of and i gave him a friend's website he's like he put it through his filter and he's like this website rates an f do you want me to show you what the website should look like what it should say how it should be structured i said sure he put it through he's like and i was like wow that is an insanely good website and everything that he told me made absolute sense the website actually is more functional now it communicates more proficiently he's like do you want me to build you that website in the next forty five minutes using my agent it's like that's not possible it was built on like wic or wiz what's that like website company he goes get me a login just get me the login forty five minutes i'll have the entire website reconstructed i got him the login he starts speaking to his agents on his home computer back in austin which is where he lives now and he's just like hey i need you to rebuild this website to look like this now and it wouldn't do it at first it was like well i'm not going to hack into that person's website that's that's immoral he's like it's not immoral i'm here with his friend right now he just got like you know he has a little argument that's that's the issue with where we are in the ai world right now but he eventually convinced it to do it forty five minutes later it read the entire manual for how to code in that website's coding for that that company wix is it called wix right wix wix and it reconstruct the website entirely from the ground up and it works perfectly so in less than an hour he took a terrible website essentially redesigned it both in terms of its architecture and its communication layers and then rebuilt it from scratch to be a fully working site in under sixty minutes minutes from a mobile phone sitting on the edge of a cliff watching surfers speaking to his agentic agents on his home computer in texas did he set that up
- [63:18]
Jack
himself or did he hire someone else to do it for him he told
- [63:21]
Chris Camillo
me he set it up himself wow and i kind of believe him because he was really sharp when it came to this stuff but listen he's just one guy right and he's like doing a lot of different things he's not even he's not a developer guy guys he's just a regular guy and so like anytime says someone says you're lying you can't do that it's not that easy well you can go through your life skeptical or you can figure out how to do it and let me tell you something we are about to like diverge into two sets of people those that are continuing to believe that this isn't real or it's too hard or it's not as good as people say it is and those that are going to find a way way those that are going to find a way to create businesses those that are going to find a way to do something special with ai in their career to start a company or as an investor once they realize that we might never get this opportunity ever again why do
- [64:16]
Graham
you think podcasting has a lot of legs because i feel like people would automatically think that you're going to have ai hosts the information that you want is going to be easier to to access on an llm or you know chatgpt or whatever as opposed to listening through a three hour podcast where maybe they talk about something you don't want to hear about where you can dictate the conversation with an llm why are you so bullish on podcasting and you're investing a lot of money into podcasts
- [64:41]
Chris Camillo
as well well i'm investing the next five years of my life into this new project that's basically trying to incubate the next great podcasters right and the reason why i'm doing it is i think the world's we we will have both right i think if you look at history anytime we've had a jump in technology or innovation the world has embraced it at the same time the world starts to really value what was left behind and i do think people will embrace ai they will embrace technology i think we will have have digital relationships with ai will be a really big deal whether we like it or not but i also think that being a differentiated human a human that is actually able to differentiate themselves from this new ai world is going to be more valuable than ever before because we're going to want both okay we're going to thirst for that true human connection in an ai world because we will be forced to use ai for numerous reasons for almost everything that we do but when it comes to real humans and that sense of connection and humanity for the humans that are able to kind of break out of the matrix and to have a degree of creativity to have a voice that is so bold and so unfiltered altered and so raw that will become so special in an ai world who's to say ai
- [66:26]
Jack
just can't do that and be a little imperfect be a little embrace of stutter a little bit misspeak i think
- [66:33]
Chris Camillo
i think maybe ai will do that but i think at least for a while we will so appreciate that authenticity of human connection because we could only embrace so much change at a time as humans like our brains think about it guys like like have you not like look at where we are in terms of anxiety right now depression we're all on our phones all the time and we hate it but we can't stop it but we hate it so we try to put our phones down you see all these establishments now going no phone so there's clubs and bars and all these places where you have to give your phone in there's a place called powder room in austin i just went there a few weeks ago with a friend and you have to turn your phone in before you go there there it's amazing everyone has like heads up looking at each other talking to each other connecting i have absolute confidence that the value of differentiated humans and that human voice will go up over the next decade not down and so for me like i live in an ai world i study ai all the time i thirst though for that human connection myself right and i do think there's huge opportunity for humans right now to be able to like create that brand to create that narrative and to really develop themselves as humans outside of kind of the ai matrix that we're about to get caught up in
- [68:02]
Jack
the hard part though is differentiating because if it's getting better and better and better i watched a video today and it took me maybe ten seconds for me to realize that the host was a ai just because it was really really really good and then i noticed the mouth movements were not like as perfect as they should be and it was an ai video but i really want there to be like a like a psa grading company that puts a stamp on everything that's not ai and that way you could kind of filter the internet through like these are the real videos and these are ai but
- [68:34]
Chris Camillo
graham you already know that there will be we don't know what the company is we don't know exactly what that process will look like or what the tech will look like but that will happen happen it's a guarantee that will happen it has to happen it has to happen for trust and i'm willing to take a huge bet that we're not going to become one hundred percent artificial one hundred percent of the time like if that's the bet i have to take i'll take that bet all day long because i know how humans are we need that sense of humanity we need that sense of human connection it has to exist and the further we dive into this ai world world the more special it will become but by the way it will become more difficult if you're a creator three years from now you can't just phone it in right you actually have to have unique bold voice that's special you have to have that interpersonal relationship with those that follow you you have to go above and beyond it's going to become a really difficult thing to pull off but for those that are willing to put the time in and pull it off i think the value on those humans will be exponentially higher than they
- [69:47]
Jack
are today well maybe that's why live events or certain in person places will
- [69:52]
Chris Camillo
do better i think live is just part of it but like live is just the validation that there's someone there beyond the digital but when you're watching someone and you know they're human like the mistakes that they might make the things that they might do it's just like it will always be different different i'm sorry it will always be different at least for our lifetime i think or for the next ten or fifteen years i'm really comfortable making that bet and it's something that humans should value because it means we were not left out of this and by the way i am absolutely confident that while it might be painful this whole transitional window that we're about to go through where a lot of people get laid off maybe on the tail end of that this will create more projects it will create more opportunity to solve more problems and we will have a supply demand issue with humans meaning that we are going to have i think the lowest unemployment rates that we've ever seen in ten years because we will not have enough humans for the amount of industry and things that we want to do in an ai world world speaking of
- [71:06]
Graham
unemployment rates what do you think about these huge lines that have formed outside of the swatch stores great question so
- [71:13]
Chris Camillo
i was on the plane holding the swatch bag because i got one okay and the flight attendant was like tell me about the whole experience and she's like why did so many people care and i said people cared because we have very few points of commonality and connection anymore anymore so when something happens and we're able to actually have that level of connectivity with each other and do something together it's special and we value it i mean listen it was on our text thread i had five other text groups where that went viral and it was so fun for us all to talk about something that and most of them are guys right we all know watches we talk about watches right it's so like we don't watch the same tv shows any we all listen to different music there's a billion creators and everyone follows their niche it's so cool when we have these viral moments and as dumb as it seems people were going to show up at a mall that day and know that there were a few thousand other people there with them and it was going to be an event it was going to be a moment with other people and they didn't know how it was going to play out out but they just want to feel something we all want to just feel something that's real
- [72:33]
Graham
how much of that is scalping though because i imagine i mean you got your hands on one which i haven't seen yet did you bring it yeah
- [72:40]
Chris Camillo
i haven't yeah absolutely go get it
- [72:42]
Graham
okay so this is the bag i have not yet seen this but i imagine you know you weren't waiting in the line you probably paid off a scalper who was trying to get a
- [72:50]
Chris Camillo
cheap one i tried to get a taskrabbit person to wait in line no one was willing to wait in line before eight thirty thirty have you opened this or no i i opened it you know i i brought this because every time i do your guys show am i the most frequented guest on your show am i the equivalent of like the guy on the late night show who comes on all the time
- [73:10]
Jack
this might put you in the running
- [73:11]
Chris Camillo
okay so every time i run into an iced coffee hour fan they are so sweet and so kind to me that i wanted to to like bring something fun for them i was hoping you guys can just give this away maybe do a comment raffle or something oh really yeah that's why i did this i literally did this because i was coming on the show i don't wear watches i don't want it but i was gonna get one because i figured your followers would probably appreciate this and so there weren't that many scalpers i looked for them that day of i found one kid on facebook marketplace that was willing to sell this for two thousand dollars and i bought it i met him at a starbucks so i didn't get kidnapped i didn't know who he was going to be and yeah so it's like i guess the red no i want to give it to you guys i want to give it to your guys what is this
- [73:59]
Graham
if you comment we need a round six with chris with chris with chris we need a round six with chris the text will be right here no periods no nothing just we need around six with chris then this this could be yours for the low price of free i want to actually see this this is actually really really cool it's
- [74:20]
Chris Camillo
lighter than i thought it was going to be but it is still metal
- [74:23]
Jack
it's not plastic right it's not bioceramic
- [74:25]
Graham
okay it's not limited production too right
- [74:28]
Chris Camillo
well hold on now they said they're going to sell it for a few months so it sounds to me like it's still semi limited they're not just going to run this for the year i mean they okay so let me tell you the story behind this one the kid showed up at north park mall in dallas at one am and he was number forty four in line when he bought that they only had five left he said so they basically had fifty imagine if you showed up online at one twenty in the morning and still didn't get one of these there were like a thousand people in line so right after he bought the that they started the police started macing people in line because people started realizing that they weren't going to get one and started shoving and stuff and they were trying to calm down i mean you saw what happened with the shootings and like yeah wild like nuts how
- [75:20]
Graham
much would you pay for that right now graham and you couldn't resell it
- [75:24]
Jack
i'd pay i'd pay retail i would
- [75:28]
Chris Camillo
i wouldn't yeah i think these stay at two thousand ish even i don't think they're going to make that many i could be wrong i bet they land at about fifteen hundred to two
- [75:40]
Jack
k the hard part was that the moon swatch went up to about the same price came down settled in the six to eight hundred range for a while and now they're selling at or below but it took three years and now you could get whatever one you want slightly below didn't they sell like
- [75:56]
Chris Camillo
a quarter of a million of them
- [75:57]
Jack
they sold a lot of them i
- [75:59]
Chris Camillo
don't think they're going to sell that many just reading between the lines of
- [76:04]
Jack
this collaboration why wouldn't they why wouldn't they just say we're doing a few months get the demand sell them out
- [76:11]
Graham
and then bring it back already yes
- [76:14]
Chris Camillo
but i'm assuming that ap put a ceiling this listen ap is a that's a pretty rare collaboration so i would imagine that ap said let's do it but we want to still be somewhat special i don't know that ap would allow them to sell a quarter of a million million i could be wrong i'm assuming it's going to be a more limited lease release than the moon
- [76:38]
Jack
watch so why aren't you investing in
- [76:40]
Chris Camillo
the stock i did already the big move already happened the social orb mood on that collaboration was the second you found out it was going to happen and then exiting last week there was a second wave that could have happened if this weekend went really well but this weekend was chaos they had to shut all the stores down people are really upset with sword swatch it's potentially a bad brand moment we don't really know if it's going to ultimately be beneficial or not for swatch so i'm not sure there's really a big move left in the stock but i got in it early i trade all this
- [77:16]
Graham
stuff but what return did you get
- [77:17]
Chris Camillo
on it it was not that much i think it was maybe like ten
- [77:20]
Jack
percent but wouldn't you think that if this is a success they'll repeat this with other brands they could do an hermes swatch they could do maybe like a ap lululemon so yes they could just keep repeating this process they're following
- [77:35]
Chris Camillo
the playbook the crocs play playbook right and it's it's genius it's genius and i think that is the upside here so what i mean by the trades over the trade for like this one release right now is probably over but if swatch proves this model out and we now have tons and tons of collaborations i think it's could be a game changer for the company i don't care enough about it it to like do the hard work and research to where i'm going to put an immense amount of money and leverage into that trade but i think it's a worthy thing to look into if you're an investor and you have that thesis what
- [78:11]
Jack
are you seeing right now with pokemon prices because those saw a huge run up these last few months and it seems like things might be stalling out
- [78:18]
Chris Camillo
a little bit so you know i sold the pokemon conference to ari emanuel collecticon last month so i was in the pokemon world dc deep for like four and a half years and now i'm out my understanding of what happened to pokemon is that about a year ago there were a handful of crypto traders that decided to go deep into the pokemon world and they basically over invested in pokemon over a short period of time and set off a chain of events that set pokemon on fire fire that's my understanding of where the money flow came into what's interesting is it wasn't like they popped the market and it deflated they set the market on fire and now it's just been rolling and rolling ever since i don't know how that plays out for pokemon over the short term but i've always believe that pokemon and ip similar to pokemon for a collector is where it's at because unlike other collectibles it's not set in a period of time where you have a peak where the people that were really into that baseball player or football player hit peak wealth and drive the market up and then the next generation has less of an appreciation for that player with sports cards
- [79:47]
Jack
i
- [79:48]
Chris Camillo
think pokemon's fascinating because they reinvent themselves for each generation so it's one of these real really rare collectibles that has cross generational demand so you could make a case that the pokemon market could stay healthy and continue to drive forward for a very long time i'm not saying it will but there's certainly a thesis there that has data to back that up so so the pokemon collectors might not be as crazy as you think they are because it's it's it's an interesting asset class because that ip can just get reinvented for each generation
- [80:30]
Graham
what other things aside from pokemon do you think have that level of stickiness
- [80:35]
Chris Camillo
i think manga is fascinating because if you think about it like that's how comic books became a sector right because like all the ip that we love in super superheroes right like the comic books are like the manga for all that ip so if you believe in pokemon and you know a lot of the related kind of ip in that world there were only there was like those a few years of that og manga that for the first time is getting graded so that's the arbitrage window the arbitrage window is the stuff wasn't graded before when did they start grading it about a year ago is that
- [81:19]
Jack
right right yeah i think it was
- [81:20]
Chris Camillo
fairly recent so once you start grading becomes institutionalized and now you have a really trustworthy way to value that as an asset class so that's what i love like i'm not a collector but if i was trying to trade a collectible i would look for some shift to happen like some narrative shift and that's what happened to manga it became it was uncollectible because it wasn't gradable then it became grad so now it becomes collectible and it becomes an actual asset class that investors can say this is an eight point five or a seven point five and we have data i think that's the move i don't know how much longer that goes on for what they've seen like a tenfold increase in pricing over six months six or seven months you know what the
- [82:10]
Jack
one i really want is a vinyl record original unopened of thriller i think that'd be so cool that would be cool i have noticed now this might be another social army garb to some degree michael jackson is making like this huge comeback big time huge everyone is now obsessed of michael jackson i'm getting tick tocks of him recordings i think there's something there but is it durable
- [82:37]
Chris Camillo
i mean i get it but like what's the narrative that would lead you to believe that michael jackson will get more popular over the next five ten
- [82:50]
Graham
years nostalgia i think the beatles will
- [82:53]
Chris Camillo
beat michael jackson but nostalgia nostalgia shifts right so like eighties are hot right now nineties are hot there will become a point in time when the two thousands and the two thousand ten s become hot and the people that are most interested in the eighties and nineties are people that experience it firsthand like me me i'm obsessed with it like this whole thing with the pizza hut guy that owns a bunch of pizza huts and he's converting them into eighties pizza huts i'm obsessed with that like i think that's the coolest thing ever we eventually go away and nostalgia shifts over time and that's my whole issue with collectibles you have to be really careful or if you want to like trade collectibles you have to catch them on the upswing as they hit their peak because look at what happened to the car market right the old guys that like the muscle car and then they came down and now the cars that are like popping are the eighties and nineties cars right eventually it will be the two thousands like you're good you got ahead of it like those early ev's at some point are going
- [84:01]
Jack
to crush i hope so any day i'm hoping that tesla roadster the problem
- [84:05]
Chris Camillo
is if you sit on it for twenty years your cost of that that's just like capital that's not being utilized and not growing in other areas so you have to time it right it's all about the time window eventually you'll hit but if you have to wait twenty years that's going to suck unless you just get enjoyment out of looking
- [84:24]
Graham
at it what is your most controversial investing opinion that people would disagree with
- [84:29]
Chris Camillo
i think almost anything that comes out of my mouth seems to be controversial as it relates to investing the fact that i don't ever look at stock price or try not to and i don't care what a stock is trading at i don't care about fundamentals i don't care about technicals i don't care about anything other than one piece of information that i think is going to meaningfully impact that company that other people underappreciate so i basically buy a stock when i think i've come across something that other people haven't noticed yet or don't fully appreciate and i exit the position as soon as the world comes to appreciate appreciate what i did when i entered the position so i call it like the point of information parody when the rest of the world sees what you see and when you invest in the stock is that an information imbalance right so it's super unconventional it's like i call it social arb some people call it attention arb i just tried to identify things a little bit quicker than others people that's it and really the best way to do that is by removing yourself from all of the noise all of the fed noise all of the macro noise all the political noise all the noise of what influencers are talking about and on the in the market every day so like people just don't believe that you can do that and not care about pe or revenue or fundamentals not care about technicals not care about anything and actually actually make money what ipo are you
- [86:09]
Graham
most excited about anthropic what do you think about the spacex ipo i don't
- [86:15]
Chris Camillo
fuck this is this is like such a raw topic for me because i invested in spacex at thirty three billion and the fund that i invested in claimed to have run out of money to pay their legal bills in california at two hundred twenty billion and forced us out of the stock they sold the fund and i think it's because they wanted to get their carry because they immediately said well there's another fund we're working on to rebuy spacex blah blah blah it's more cost efficient i got i got pulled out of spacex at two hundred twenty billion and it really upsets me now watching this ipo because my plan was to always hold it through the ipo now you did
- [86:58]
Jack
make like eight x yeah but it
- [87:01]
Chris Camillo
would have made a lot more right and i was so upset at the time i just like i was like i'm not i'm not reinvesting because i i had to pay all this carry so i would have had less money to re so it's basically like i got screwed and i like out of spite i wanted nothing to do with spacex at that point and here we
- [87:21]
Jack
are but aren't you seeing right now a lot of secondary shares they're saying that like hey maybe we're not going to honor that this secondary share offering might not be real are you worried
- [87:32]
Chris Camillo
about i see that stuff i don't i think that's just to dissuade people from doing more of it i don't think that sam altman or elon or anthropic are actually going to go to investors who invested through an spv that was maybe un unauthorized and say we're taking your shares back they don't want that pr head hell it's the wrong thing to do to the investor because it's not the investor's fault right most of these investors didn't understand that so i i don't think they're going to actually do any of that i'm invested in a few of those deals i'm not concerned spacex i don't know guys like i'm not going to buy the ipo so i'm not saying it's a bad investment i'm just not interested in it i i don't have any alpha on spacex that's specific special that the rest of the world doesn't already know and i don't make investments unless i know something that i think is meaningful that other people underappreciate what do you
- [88:36]
Graham
know about anthropic that other people don't
- [88:39]
Chris Camillo
we don't have that many models first of all right if you look at what anthropic has done over the past nine months the biggest issue with anthropic is they had issues monetizing they had a really good monitor model but oai was monetizing really well now anthropic is monetizing unbelievably well they've won the trust of enterprise oai is also going to be really big in enterprise and so is google but anthropic is a company that has been really prudent they have a founder that is not as hated as sam altman right is not as controversial as sam altman and i just think what they're doing in enterprise is disgustingly amazing like the traction that they're getting across enterprise at a global level is wild and it's really sticky so there's just not a lot of competition for what they do they're going to end up being one of the three big players globally in terms of models and they're going to have a tremendous amount of leverage that comes with with
- [89:50]
Jack
that do you have any opinion when
- [89:51]
Chris Camillo
it comes to bitcoin no opinion i had the same opinion on bitcoin that i've had for the past eight or nine years i have some of it i think for the most part as wealth transfers from old people to young people young people are more likely to have some of their investments in bitcoin so there's this long tail of increased demand in bitcoin that over the course of the next twenty years should be a massive tailwind and bitcoin would theoretically float up i don't think about bitcoin i don't try to trade bitcoin i do think there are risk there are risks with security right in a world where computing gets to a point where bitcoin maybe is not security anymore that's a massive risk i don't have enough bitcoin that i care i know you're you guys are big you dave is big in it too i don't my my youtube partner i i would never be in it that big i i don't understand having more than a point or two or three in bitcoin last
- [90:58]
Graham
time we had you on the show we asked you who are the best founders of our lifetime and your answer went pretty viral a few different times and i think you said jensen yeah i think you said you said vlad yeah and he might have said elon as well yeah and i'm curious if anything has changed in the past couple of months with how how quickly stuff
- [91:20]
Chris Camillo
has also changed i think you have to give amazon and jesse here right and amazon a big nod to what he did they were late to ai which was scary for a company like amazon and they have now made the moves the two hundred billion dollars of capex that they knew they were going to get crushed for that and they did get crushed for that the moves that they made with trainium trainium now being one of the hottest ai chips in the world as a business i mean did you see the numbers behind trainium what they're doing it's like fifty billion i think it's astonishing what amazon has done in the last twelve to eighteen months to catch up in the ai race not by having their own foundation model but by putting themselves front and center touching every single facet of everything that is ai from the infrastructure layer to advertising to chipsets with trainium to making massive investments in anthropic i mean amazon's investment in anthropic could end up netting them two hundred billion dollars easy when they ipo okay so everyone was so worried that amazon upped their capex this year to two hundred billion they might make two hundred billion just on their anthropic investment investment okay they now made a massive investment in openai and i know openai is a controversial company but listen sam just won the lawsuit today against elon that basically sets the runway for their ipo amazon just put fifty billion into openai and with that also attaches oai to the amazon ecosystem now so they have two of the big things three google being the third basically tied into amazon infrastructure in perpetuity probably forever i mean it's just a it was just a ballsy move
- [93:29]
Jack
i saw elon said the only reason he lost was because of a technicality
- [93:33]
Chris Camillo
of a calendar that's not true i've been following the case and essentially many of the things that elon said he did or the relationships or things things that he did with oai in the early days the documents proved something different else i'm not going to get too into it i just been following it for fun the case was not nearly as strong in elon's favor as i anticipated it would be and i expected him to lose the case once i actually saw the docs and what went down in the early days of openai it was very clear to me me that he was going to lose the case i didn't speak about it because i would have gotten trashed for it i'm not anti elon at all i want elon to win i mean elon is a guy that's going to change the world for the better by making big ballsy moves in robotics and everything else so like i'm not anti elon just just objectively i may i thought a few weeks ago there's no way he's winning this case and and sure enough else lost but anyway it sets the stage for massive ipo window for openai that will also benefit amazon so i would add him to a list i think you have to and you know i i i i've said i said it before like i think amazon's going to double from here i mean i'm not i'm not a price guy but i just think the runway is massive no one's even traded the ai efficiency wave for amazon yet it hasn't even started yet and how about robotics automation twenty five years of building global infrastructure do you see what amazon just did with the last mile delivery where basically any company now can use them as their delivery company amazon like they're basically becoming a full fledged ups and fedex it's it's it's really astonishing i just been i i've never been so excited about big cap company how are
- [95:42]
Jack
you telling your kids to adapt here because you're coming at an age where they're looking at colleges and career yeah how do they navigate all of this because anything they study today is going to be outdated in four years my
- [95:55]
Chris Camillo
kids graduate in two years they'll get to make their own decisions but i mean my kids are really into sports my daughter wants to play volleyball in college which is a convention intentional you know path my son i don't know i fully support taking a year off now i fully support not going to college i think if you can get into a top ten fifteen school you'll get enough of a network benefit that i would go to college i would go to an ivy just for the relationships for those authentic relationships with people if you can't get into one of those schools schools i think the idea of taking a year off and experiencing the world and culture and people and having that college experience if you can afford it would be a really cool substitute for the social experience you otherwise would have received at a four year university then you start your real life three years earlier than everyone else with virtually no debt no college debt and you have a lot of optionality you can now go work an internal internship for someone right you can go learn at real companies you can go to a trade school you can do what we discuss which is becoming hyper proficient in ai and maybe just going and starting a lifestyle business where you have a bunch of clients or maybe you just work for one person one company as an ai proficient person i call them ai translators right i think every company in the world needs an ai translator someone just to be that medium between the world of ai and all of their problems so anytime you have a problem that ai translator or team of ai translators can discern can we fix that problem using ai at pennies on the dollar as opposed to how we were fixing that problem a few years ago these aren't ai prompt engineers these are people that can just properly assess the right tool sets and capabilities of artificial intelligence and degree to which it can be leveraged leverage to solve problems inside of business and enterprise i think that becomes one of the biggest careers going forward i don't know what the world will call them but that's what i call them i would encourage my kids to slow down not rush into anything take a year off again go travel do that pennies on the dollar compared to what college costs right you're going to doing the whole europe thing and i never did that i think that would be fun meet people though because like at the end of the day the one resource that will become infinitely valuable going forward are human relationships so go out and meet people all around the world your age because you'll end up potentially working with those people or for those people right and that's the one thing that's so special still how do you get a job through relationship authentic relationships so go out and build a lot of authentic relationships then get training in the real world because no college is going to teach you what you need in the real world i'm sorry like there's they they cannot recreate those curriculums fast enough because as soon as they like tweak the curriculum to be an ai friendly curriculum ai has changed again so just like the whole concept of going to a four year university no matter how much they say they're keeping up with the times is bs i would take an alternate path unless you get into a top ten fifteen school and again it's all about the network and relationships it's not for the schooling right and of course there are paths where you still need to go to college medical and various things right but but that's the advice i have for my kids and i would be really supportive of alternative unconventional pathways for them and i think as parents we all have to be open to unconventional pathways ways and i know that's hard especially for boomers or even gen x like me because we're like what you're not going to college you know no i think not going to college is going to be the new going to college where it's like you were smart enough to know that you shouldn't go to college completely agree with you on that and you have the confidence in yourself that you are savvy enough you know what i'm saying like that you were self educated enough to know that college is not the right move it's weird to say that but i think that's where we're headed
- [100:30]
Graham
i agree with that it sounds like naval ravikant he says the way i test someone's intelligence is if they are living the life that they want to be living basically not just being a sheep going to college because everyone else is going to college but being able to see the playing field for what it truly is and navigate it to the best of their ability and i'm
- [100:47]
Chris Camillo
kind of doing that with my own life right now like this whole next phase of my life is just cool stuff with close friends and like i'll only do business stuff if it's really fun and enjoyable and it's with someone i'm really close with and trust you know and it's like so part of the reason why i want to work with creators with this incubation podcast studio in austin is because i enjoy working with creative people i enjoy working with ambitious people i enjoy how hard it is like it's probably one of the hardest things to do how many podcasters are there like twenty million or something like how many top twenty what's the statistical chance of incubating a top twenty podcast almost impossible that to me that challenge is what excites me so and to get to take that journey with creative ambitious people i mean i'm at a stage in my life where like and i by the way i i'm constantly talking to like these guys who sold their companies who are worth like fifty million to ten billion almost on the daily now and this is the conversation i have with them and i have this and they look at me and they're like hmm i had one guy tell me last week he sold his company a couple years ago i think i'm gonna go buy that bonsai shop that me and my daughter like so much i was like yeah you're getting it now like you love your daughter and you and her love banzai is like why don't you buy the shop why don't you create an it's been around for thirty years in dallas like why don't you create an e commerce model with her why don't you figure out maybe you could bring some content creators in have fun with it have it be like a newer generation in like artificial intelligence for marketing and business ops you can make that shop more efficient more productive more profitable she could learn life lessons and this is the thing that you and your daughter have been doing for years how much joy would you get out of that he's like and i was like so every time i meet with one of these guys usually i'm able to convince them to kind of do more of what i'm doing because like we all get in our zone where we just do the same thing by the way almost everyone i know is just chasing a big bigger number they sold their company they had success so the number keeps going up and up and up i'm like dude what the hell are you going to do with all that money like i don't get it i just don't understand it like when at a certain point when you have enough friends that own yachts and vacation homes and fly private you kind of don't need to spend any of your own money anymore anyway because you're just doing their stuff you know like i don't understand what the difference is between twenty million dollars and two hundred million i really don't don't like i don't know how your life changes between twenty million and two hundred million i don't understand
- [103:39]
Jack
well that's the difference between six hundred grand a year and six million a year in terms of spending at three percent which would be pretty substantial but
- [103:49]
Graham
are you really going to be spending five hundred thousand dollars a month like how that sounds like a job but
- [103:53]
Jack
but i'm just saying it's like imagine living on six hundred grand a year or six million a year that's how
- [103:59]
Graham
it's a totally different literal job to spend that amount of money like you want days where you just kind of
- [104:04]
Chris Camillo
hang out more money more money more things more problems that is so true with every single person i know one of my best friends i love him to death but i make fun of him all the time because he has so many things he has people taking care of the things he's always stressed out and like taxes and this and that like just keeping track of all the things things is a job at that point so i don't know man i'm about simplicity and relationships and like really trying to figure out what brings you true joy and cancel out everything else in life and i don't get the whole chasing the number that gets bigger and bigger but the number is
- [104:50]
Graham
significant to a certain extent you would say twenty million dollars is probably that
- [104:54]
Chris Camillo
critical mass i think twenty million is a good number by the way the number's different for everyone i mean depending on who you are the number could be forty or fifty or it could be five so let's just say at
- [105:05]
Graham
what point do you say okay like that number is way too large i
- [105:10]
Chris Camillo
mean i started hanging out with this billionaire who's just sold his company and he i think i think he's probably worth like six or seven billion and i'm like what are you going to do he's like the same thing i'm staying on as ceo and i'm not gonna even say what industry it is but in my head it is a horrible industry to have to stay in he's like i've been doing it for fifteen years i'm good with it dude don't you wanna do something different man but to each their own right to each their own but i still if you're doing it for the joy cause you really get off on working in that industry sector i think that's cool but i haven't met a single person that keeps raising is happier when they hit that number not one in my entire life it just seems like such a terrible thing to chase because you think that number is going to get you something else and that dopamine hit lasts for like five minutes and it's over and then and then they're miserable again and chasing a new number to get god knows what i don't even know again i don't understand like after a few tens of millions how the hell do you spend that much money money even the nicest restaurants in the world right like you can get in by a twenty five zero zero zero dorsia membership and like you can get to pretty much any restaurant like i am i like am i crazy or like what i agree with you i
- [106:35]
Jack
agree style that's all i think yeah flying private would be really like we're we're talking about like you know doing a trip and like oh man if we could fly private that would solve a lot of issues but that would be fifty grand and like spending fifty thousand is would be irresponsible but there's an amount of money that if we had spending fifty k would just be
- [106:56]
Graham
like oh the the more important thing though is the delta like what does it take to get from now to that point of being able to fly private and is it worth it to sacrifice another ten years of your life to then be able to upgrade from first class to private once every six
- [107:10]
Chris Camillo
months you can't travel that much even if you're flying private private you get it like all these guys they got like a jet card or maybe they own a jet it's a million a year whatever it is like if you're in the tens of mil you can do that too that that's what i don't understand like like what wait so
- [107:28]
Jack
how much money do you have to have to fly private three times a year within the united states dude that so you're probably spending two two hundred
- [107:36]
Chris Camillo
grand a year max two hundred thousand a year on the three flight round trips max it's probably a lot closer to like like one hundred and thirty one hundred forty thousand dollars a year so like it's nothing if you have tens of millions right you don't need more tens of millions you definitely don't need hundreds of millions to do that the biggest thing i've seen is that people take ridiculous risk when they get a lot of money and then they go broke they just go crazy or massive drug issues depression gambling all the bad stuff let's just say all the bad stuff hits so it's like i think you're almost better off keeping it to a reasonable number so that you can actually relate to normal people in your life like i think once you get into the stratosphere where you become people become unrelatable to you it actually causes a lot of anxiety and mental health mental stress because you just can't connect we've talked about this earlier i think that human connection is extraordinarily important and it's something that we don't think about and with excess wealth you start to disconnect from humanity even knowing you're worth that much money is a weird i think it messes with your head i really do i think it messes with your head so that's why i say just get give it away give it away create a foundation give it away man by the way i talked about this recently foundations are so good no more trust funds just start a foundation put the money in there your kids can take a nominal salary right they get health insurance you don't have to have attorneys approving stuff dude foundations are the greatest it's the most enjoyable thing i do every no november i get to write the checks and send the wires out to like and i basically go out to my friend network i don't know if i've ever gone to you guys everyone who i think might be philanthropic i'll do it this year for you guys i say give me the name all i need to know is just give me the name of a charity that you love that you trust that is relatively efficient with their capital that's really making a meaningful difference difference and i will wire the
- [109:57]
Jack
money out tomorrow humane society something animal
- [110:00]
Chris Camillo
related i do a bunch of so well you know i am getting more closely aligned i talked to you guys with beast philanthropy i went to africa with jimmy and i know he gets a lot of crap for like being too big people don't think he's for real is he doing for the wrong reasons dude i'd never seen a guy in my life work so hard and be so so locked in to changing the world doesn't seem to have a lot of fun it's not partying he's just like working and he's so intense and he has this like master plan
- [110:34]
Jack
but that's what he finds fun though
- [110:36]
Chris Camillo
i know he does but like that's
- [110:38]
Jack
his version of fun is being able
- [110:39]
Chris Camillo
to work well he has this master plan to like bring every kid in the world out of child labor and it's really sophisticated and it's so well thought out i'm just like dude if the world saw what i saw when i was with them in ghana i was like they would not be giving him so much crap but how come
- [110:58]
Jack
the world isn't seeing him like that because he has so many eyeballs on him and he could choose to show
- [111:03]
Chris Camillo
whatever he wants to it's human nature that when you see someone get that big you start to pick them apart because we always assume a billionaire he's a billionaire now right on paper he's like a billionaire on paper paper but man does he not live like one okay like i i can't say the stuff that i saw him do i was like i couldn't even believe it
- [111:27]
Jack
could you tell us anything that you
- [111:29]
Chris Camillo
saw him do he didn't even come back to the hotel one night he's like staying out in the jungle dude i'm like dude you couldn't pay me
- [111:39]
Jack
enough do you know what he was doing in the jungle yeah i mean
- [111:42]
Chris Camillo
like he just it was a whole thing where he got there there's plane issues so they got there he's not flying private either you know that's the thing it's crazy just on a regular flight i think he's in coach dude it was wild but he wanted to get more work done he didn't want to have to he wanted to get started earlier in the morning i'm like it's a three hour drive from the from the city to the the jungle where they were building their school and all their stuff i was like no no i need to get a good meal i need to sleep in a real bed you know i'll i'll take the drive i'll take the drive back man but but i love it i i i think i think we don't ordinarily see people that get to that level that actually care that much still about doing the right thing so it's it's normal for us to to be cynical and that's i get it i listen if i could say one thing the guy's legit he's legit his heart is legitimately in the right place i spent almost a full day just talking to him about what he the future and it was all noble like it was all like noble for noble causes so like i'm going to be donating a bunch to beast philanthropy i have for a few years now i just have a high degree of trust in where that money is going if he
- [112:58]
Jack
ipos would you buy his ipo this
- [113:00]
Chris Camillo
is what's so crazy and i don't want to talk specifics but i am invested in beast because i invest i was one of the first investors in the chocolate company really yeah so though i think those shares have been converted to beast industry and when i saw the valuation of beast industry it's five billion right now i was like there's no way this thing is worth five billion where how is he going to grow this and then i spoke to him for like we spoke him for seven hours straight about like strategy and where he's going with this like dude this is going to be a twenty billion dollars plus company guaranteed like i i don't i didn't want to say what he's doing but what he's doing is so smart you know how i talk about like why would you start your own company when you could throw money at psychotic people like vlad and elon and steve jobs back in the day that will literally not do anything else in life but be laser focused and build like relentlessly towards that end of goal he's one of those people he is miles ahead of everyone else in what he does and i don't think anyone else in the content world is going to be able to keep up with him so i just think the endless possibilities for how big he can build that empire well beyond just his own brand of himself and i don't even think he's really getting started yet that's what's so cool crazy that's so crazy i think it's like twenty
- [114:32]
Jack
nine right no he's younger than that twenty eight he's like twenty six no
- [114:36]
Chris Camillo
i think he's like twenty no he's
- [114:37]
Graham
definitely twenty seven or twenty eight he's not younger than me i think he's younger than he cannot be younger than me yes he is i still have like eight months to get to his
- [114:46]
Chris Camillo
level so yeah i mean i mean
- [114:47]
Jack
may seventh nineteen ninety eight there we go so he is a little older than you jack so i saw five months and much wiser so like i
- [114:56]
Chris Camillo
said without even knowing without even knowing the business model because i don't know if i'm allowed to give any of that away like invest in this in the psychopath who's going to put a hundred percent of their life and energy into getting to that end goal like dude i could not do what he's doing even for one week of my life and i consider myself an exceptionally hard worker i just can't i'm not built like that i just can't i gotta have a more diversified life and a whole lot of other things so yeah man i'm yeah i would i think i would i i would invest in it i'm already in it all
- [115:36]
Graham
right chris so you're now reviewing our portfolios i'll be handing my phone over to you right now that's my individual account i also i also have a roth ira and a sep in there
- [115:43]
Jack
as well and the goal is to rate it out of ten ten would be perfect and one would be awful
- [115:51]
Chris Camillo
dude this is like you said on a scale zero to ten i should
- [115:54]
Graham
write it yeah
- [115:59]
Chris Camillo
eight that's exactly what
- [116:02]
Jack
the money guys said didn't they no
- [116:03]
Graham
they gave me a seven i think seven and a half yeah yeah i
- [116:06]
Chris Camillo
mean listen you're young so i want to see aggressiveness and i see it i want to see concentration around ai which is one of the only things that matters right now and i i see it you oh wait a second okay i i see some etf's here with some big numbers in it i just want to make sure yeah it's mostly vug yeah it's an eight solid
- [116:33]
Graham
eight cool what do you think could
- [116:35]
Chris Camillo
be improved do any leverage on that i don't what's the upside downside of applying a little bit of leverage leverage a little bit of margin you're borrowing money okay the way the world works is smart people borrow money and do smart things with it to generate a bigger return than the return you're paying someone else you're smart smarter than most so why not borrow a little bit of money on margin no five percent were they five six percent and assume that you're going to be able to beat that five or six percent right start with five percent margin ten percent ten percent of your portfolio what's going to you worry about the market going down ninety percent you're going to get zeroed out you're young i actually kind
- [117:25]
Graham
of agree with you if i'm being honest that's just for me though you
- [117:28]
Jack
don't want him dealing with margin though
- [117:30]
Graham
here's the deal i mean i've outperformed
- [117:31]
Chris Camillo
the market here's the deal no every
- [117:34]
Graham
year for the past probably four jack
- [117:36]
Chris Camillo
i'm not saying to go in with forty to ninety percent like i do baby steps take a little bit of margin out just take a little bit
- [117:44]
Graham
maybe you know what just because of you i got a little bit margin
- [117:48]
Chris Camillo
a little bit i don't think and
- [117:49]
Graham
then that bumps me up to a
- [117:50]
Chris Camillo
nine and get more comfortable with it over time okay and just know the good days are going to be a little bit better and the bad days are going to be a little bit worse and that's okay because you appear to have a margin of safety there that if you lose ten percent more on the bad days i don't think it's going to kill you yeah i
- [118:12]
Graham
would agree and i do think i this might even be a little safe
- [118:15]
Chris Camillo
honestly it is but way better than i thought it was going to be
- [118:18]
Graham
i consider my my job to be high risk and when you would probably argue that it's not i would say like the the fluctuations in income suggest that it could be high risk so i take it a little bit more
- [118:29]
Chris Camillo
it's not high risk it's not you're in control of your destiny you're in a really stable sector in a mature show if you were working for someone else and had no control over your destiny you can get terminated tomorrow and go from one hundred percent of your income to zero that's high risk i don't see you going from one hundred one hundred percent of what you have now to zero you might have to back off twenty thirty percent if you have a down year sponsorships viewership i think you're in a really safe place professionally and you should i'll be a little bit more aggressive okay all right
- [119:03]
Jack
here you go
- [119:08]
Chris Camillo
i don't even know what that is what wait what oh oh it's oh that's just that's just the okay i take it back wait how do i see the portfolio i
- [119:17]
Jack
have you just have to click on
- [119:19]
Chris Camillo
the thing different accounts okay um i was like what is that some weird real estate thing that you were in i don't know what you're looking at
- [119:29]
Jack
all right there's three there should be three accounts in there okay i well
- [119:32]
Chris Camillo
i'm i'm looking at the big one that's i think that will tell me everything i need to know you love diversity don't you damn where are your individual stocks graham that's in the other
- [119:49]
Jack
account so i have to okay i'm
- [119:50]
Chris Camillo
gonna go to the other account but
- [119:51]
Jack
you're not gonna be i mean you'll like the stocks but you're not gonn
- [119:55]
Chris Camillo
amounts dude you're not going to get a great grade for this okay hold it i do like the stocks it's like what's the point of even what
- [120:07]
Graham
does he have in these stocks it's
- [120:09]
Chris Camillo
just so minuscule relative to the crazy diversified stuff he has see i would
- [120:16]
Jack
be fine with just earning six percent a year if i could just guarantee lock in six percent the a year for like fifty years of be thrilled
- [120:23]
Chris Camillo
oh god can i ask you a question before i grade you what is your what's your investment objective preservation and
- [120:34]
Jack
slow growth to me i i like just locking it in that's his investment
- [120:44]
Graham
goal but his financial goal is completely
- [120:47]
Chris Camillo
different okay tell me about your financial
- [120:48]
Jack
financial goal i would like fifty percent more liquid so this account i wanted to grow fifty percent and then i would also in addition to that like a a nicer primary residence at some
- [121:03]
Graham
point so about that that amount of money is what he wants yeah so if we could double that basically double
- [121:10]
Jack
yeah yeah if if you double that i hit both of those he achieves
- [121:14]
Graham
the next milestone to then push off
- [121:17]
Chris Camillo
to anyone because because your financial objective is so conservative i'll up it to a six point five because i think you will get there with with what you're doing but you can get there so much quicker like you're smarter than that you see things and i would like to think that beyond your own financial goals you could be doing something way bigger and you don't you're young still like in ten years you might come across something and be like wow if i had that much money i could be part of this buying a sports team who the hell knows what it is right so you have to look out for the things that you don't know you're going to want today and i know you could be doing better if you put like took twenty five percent out of that diversified portfolio and invested in individual stocks maybe the same ones you're in i just think you have so much diversity in those etf's i think you'd be okay taking a quarter out and putting it in the individual stocks i really do i'm
- [122:24]
Jack
just not one for volatility i can't stand it and when when it's up a lot i see the purchasing power of what that is and i the my first thought is i got to trade trim and i just see like when i buy an etf like the s and p five hundred to me mentally it's like all right i bank it away i lock it away it's there it's separate and so mentally for me it's just like once it's there i just kind of assume and i model six percent a year i think
- [122:50]
Chris Camillo
if you want comfort in your life you're doing the right thing i think also for people that are anomalies and you're one of those anomalies i think you owe it to the world to be uncomfortable comfortable to push yourself a little harder to make more money to do bigger things to give yourself more optionality to do things beyond your own comfort level so if you took the approach that i'm suggesting and took twenty five percent and put it into the individual stocks that you're pretty darn good picking i think you're going to have a larger pool of wealth in five to ten years more optionality in your your life and i just knowing you as a person i know you're going to do good things with that and i would like to see you have more optionality and i think you owe it to the world to be a little less comfortable personally with your finances in order to do something big for other people that's how i think about it for myself like i there are some times where i'm a little nervous like you know a year and a half whenever that was with the tariffs i'm like i don't deserve just to like sit on my money and and just sit on that gravy train till i die no i like i i'm a special person and i could do big things and i need to make myself uncomfortable and take risk to make the money i know i'm capable of making to help other people and listen it's different for every person i don't know what it's going to be for you guys but i'd like to see you guys get a little more uncomfortable with your own finances and by the way i don't mean that for everyone that's just for youtube guys for like the average person who just has a regular day job and loves their life and is being really productive and great for their family and all this stuff that might not be the right path for them but i do think it's the right path for both of you
- [124:38]
Jack
guys i'm with you i agree one jack fair and square there we go
- [124:42]
Graham
one to one last one is we have the tier list yeah so we have we have a tier list i
- [124:47]
Chris Camillo
don't know what does that mean what's a tier list you're going to have
- [124:49]
Jack
these options of like s tier a b c all the way down to
- [124:52]
Chris Camillo
f oh yeah i've seen this yeah okay so amazon obviously s tier because it's the number one beneficiary the ai efficiency wave so you'll move it you'll just oh i need to move it
- [125:06]
Jack
click and drag okay click and drag it to s tier okay
- [125:14]
Chris Camillo
apple i'll put c tier because they really have to prove themselves out over the next two to three years they could end up miraculously figuring out a way to execute on ai and move up or they can completely fall apart and we might move beyond the mobile phone as our primary intermediary in which case apple could be in huge trouble the next ten years so i'll sit in c for now bloom energy has to be s tier it is the absolute quickest way for any data center center to go live with energy it's been my number one pick for the last year more or less gamestop f tier i don't understand gamestop at all it annoys me i i just don't understand it they've underperformed the market for the last few years they haven't really done anything i i don't think this ebay thing is going to work out for them so sorry guys i know there's going to be a lot of meme people that'll hate me but f tier bitcoin i'm going to put it in b tier because i do think as long as no one's able to crack bitcoin and it remains this safe asset that you don't have to worry about losing we have one hundred trillion dollars of wealth transfer over the next twenty years and for every one gold bug there's like ten thousand kids that believe in bitcoin i say kids in their twenties now right and i think we have a massive tailwind of everyone wanting to have one percent or two percent of their portfolio in bitcoin or graham you're probably like mid to upper single digits now right twelve damn that is a lot dude how can you sit here and tell me that you're that you're you're conservative with this and diversified and
- [127:11]
Jack
have twelve it's a barbell because i have way than that in tax free muni bonds and treasuries yeah but there's
- [127:19]
Chris Camillo
tail risk that bitcoin theoretically could go down a lot in a theoretical situation with the security stuff to have twelve percent that's like having twelve percent in one stock that has a high beta to it a very high beta to it i think that's really risky dude i don't like that i would i didn't realize when i saw your portfolio can i downgrade you to like a five five you're back down to a
- [127:47]
Jack
five but it could also double could
- [127:49]
Chris Camillo
but i don't like it five five how eight five five how much would
- [127:53]
Jack
you trim it down to if it's a twelve right now five five percent
- [127:59]
Graham
i like what he says where it's like every single day you wake up you're choosing to buy this amount twelve every of your portfolio bitcoin instead of other things that twenty twelve is that
- [128:08]
Chris Camillo
much dude let me tell you something like i hang out with some of the biggest crypto guys and they still have huge crypto positions but they've all been diversifying into deep tech the last eighteen months like some of the biggest crypto guys in the world are all diversifying into deep tech ai robotics that's a lot for a guy like you to have investors bitcoin that just feels like a lot man i'm just being honest but you do you do you nvidia i know they're controversial but i still think they're i still think they're going to be fine for a few years and you know jensen's an animal you got to put them s tier all the way up s tier hood same thing i'm just i'm just going s tier now hood come on i think hood will be the largest financial institution in the world at some point in the next twenty years i think vlad's one of the most ambitious ceo's in the world i think he'll ask for forgiveness later you know hood had a little bit of a dip here because crypto had a dip but the fact that robinhood did so well on earnings with that insane hit to the crypto part of their business tells you all you need to know even if crypto never really comes back robinhood's gonna be okay if crypto comes back at all dude i will be pouring into robinhood with leverage like that's the first thing i will do crypto comes back sweet oh you got sweet green on here yep just for you right now i'm gonna put them on b tier because it's still not convincing that this rap is going to be a grandson slam but it's more likely than not that it will be a winner i'm putting an a tier moving up to a tier that could change like i study the social media every day so every night i read every comment on every tiktok video of a sweet green rap so if i start to see things flatten out or see the height die or see it reverse i will immediately exit my sweet green position just for the record oh micro strategy f tier these levered funds in something as volatile as bitcoin i'm not even going to get into it i hate it i hate it so much f tier coinbase i d i just don't have a lot of visibility into how crypto is going to play out over the next ten years i think coinbase will do fine because they do a lot of institutional stuff and they are the institutional kind of partner for wall street when it comes to crypto but i think they'll have a lot more competition the next ten years if crypto hangs around is tqqq the triple leverage qqq i love it i love it i really do you know i spent a lot of time time with dave hansen i'm putting in god this seems crazy to put it a tier i'm putting a tier because we have this thesis that it is highly likely highly likely to generate continue to generate two x returns to the qqq over the next twenty plus years twenty five years so it's a triple leverage but with the premium costs and it ends up generating about two x over the long term and while it does have tremendous volatility we've run so many scenarios and it's a really really rare scenario where it gets hit and gets wiped out like i don't even know if it's it's possible but i'm willing to roll the dice i have part of my retirement portfolios in that for the last four or five years kind of love it qqq i love less than that but hey i'll put it b tier because because you're still getting an aggressive diversified mix of technology and growth stocks which how can you hate that tesla right now i'm putting it c tier because they're at this pivotal moment when i think the entire future of tesla depends upon elon locking in and getting this optimus robot right and he hasn't yet i think the entire future of tesla is in robotics and and i'm quite honestly disappointed with how quickly that project's been moving or how slowly it's been moving the last year it has not come as far as i thought it would i think elon is distracted and all over the place if they execute on optimus i think tesla could go to a tier maybe even s tier if they don't it could move down to d tier pretty quick could theoretically be f tier with its valuation and the automotive business business i know it's a hot take microsoft listen they're hyper oh god they're deep in the infrastructure layer i got to give them b because they're just going to get that spending they're just in the right place at the right time but their traditional business is going to get destroyed so i can't i can't put them up above b tier because they're one of those saas companies that eventually they're going to get they're just going to get destroyed on the saas side but on the cloud computing and all the ai stuff it will save them lululemon season to season i just don't know yet so i got to throw them in c tier it's like that's a company i'm either going to be long short depending on what the trends are telling me that season did they get the right styles in are they making the right moves are they back favor you know they got to continue to go down the right road with men and young people and right now they're just kind of you know on the flux vu kind of same thing i mean it's just like i'll give them b tier kind of what qqq sandisk i mean they're i mean right place right time a tier your memory company i mean you got tailwinds unlike i've ever seen people think that whole market's going to fall apart they think there's going to be you know new tech not in the next twenty four months so for now they're a tier meta i'm going to put them a tier for one reason and one reason only meta has so many expenses that they are going to erase the next two years as part of this ai efficiency wave not as many as amazon but meta has i think twenty to thirty thousand people who basically just read post for safety and curation i mean they're gone i think that's a few billion dollars a year in savings right there but meta has massive efficiencies they will bring into the ad market as long as instagram remains like one of the world's primary social media destinations meta will make more a lot more money with a much lower cost structure over the next few years and that targeting with ai is going to get insanely good exxon mobile energy is where it's at right now but i don't know that much about exxon so i'm just going to put them in b tier but you're in the energy industry you're in a really good place right now palantir it's really hard you know palantir was one of the biggest trades i've had the last few years years i'm currently out of palantir because i think the world finally has come to appreciate all the great things about palantir and i think the future will be good but can they you know is it good enough to satisfy their valuation i i just don't know i'm going to put them as a nb okay what is a swatch group we'll do c if swatch actually executes on the crocs right strategy and i think they can because ap is like an insane brand if they now take that collaboration and show the world that they can actually operate it because this weekend did not go well for them and get like a few dozen other collaborations over the next three to five years they could move up but if not i think they die so that's why they're dead in the middle at sea well thank you so
- [136:55]
Jack
much for coming on really appreciate it and for anyone interested in that swatch ap collab do do the comment do the comment down below and we'll go through in the next few days we'll pick a comment how's that and we'll
- [137:10]
Graham
reach out to you on top of that i will be going into margin so everyone if you're a bull i'm sorry consider shorting the market because i'm bringing on some margin graham i apologize
- [137:23]
Chris Camillo
by the way i'm not a financial advisor and i was just messing with you but if you really want to do that go ahead i actually would
- [137:28]
Graham
i would i would consider i have beat the market year over year so let's just see what happens if i went into margin guys i would do it respect responsibly as we found out in the money guy episode as well as this episode i'm actually a pretty
- [137:38]
Chris Camillo
conservative investor so i'm excited all right
- [137:42]
Jack
we'll link to all your info down below in the description and your twitter by the way which i've really been enjoying and you've been a part of this group i'm just going to do a quick shout out for the index it's a kind of mastermind for high level entrepreneurs business owners there's a link down below in the description if you
- [137:56]
Chris Camillo
want to dude the guys are insanely awesome in the group insanely awesome i love love them love them well thank
- [138:04]
Jack
you for joining that really appreciate it thank you for watching thank you to our channel members by the way for
- [138:10]
Graham
supporting the channel it's so we're just going to keep going thanks for watching guys until next time until next time