The Iced Coffee Hour: Ryan Serhant’s Shocking Prediction For Housing Prices, Mamdani Victory, & ‘Freeze The Rent!’
Date: November 9, 2025
Hosts: Graham Stephan, Jack Selby
Guest: Ryan Serhant (with additional guest Erica Colberg in discussion)
Episode Overview
In this engaging episode, star real estate broker and Netflix “Owning Manhattan” star Ryan Serhant sits down with Graham Stephan, Jack Selby, and Erica Colberg to tackle current events shaking the real estate world, particularly the fallout from Zoran Mamdani’s mayoral win and his proposed rent freeze in NYC. They deep-dive into market economics, investor psychology, wealth-building, scams, and the future of urban living. The conversation weaves candid insights on wealth, building businesses, and navigating high price environments, all in a tone that’s sharp, insightful, and sometimes irreverent.
Main Topics & Key Insights
1. State of the Real Estate Market (00:00–12:53)
Delusional Market, No Bubble
- Ryan Serhant: "We are in one of the most delusional real estate markets I've ever seen and I love it." [00:00]
- Current housing market is not a bubble ready to pop, but an “unaffordability crisis” fueled by high rates, lack of inventory, and stagnant wages. People are staying put due to ultra-low fixed rates acquired in the last 15 years.
- Asset prices soar as boomers and others don’t sell, leading to historic shortages. This is pushing more people into renting—where rents are also at “incredibly, incredibly high” levels.
The Impact of Policy and Inventory
- Tax code changes and historically favorable capital gains treatments have helped owners, but don’t offer relief for today’s high prices.
- Serhant notes: "277 cities in the United States right now say a starter home is $1 million and above." [03:17]
- "Lack of inventory is pushing pricing on top of a very, very slow job growth market." [04:39]
Sacrifice to Live in NYC
- Many “live paycheck to paycheck” at even the luxury level.
- There’s a culturally ingrained mindset: “It’s okay, I’ll figure it out. I can always just make more money.”
[05:17]
2. Building Wealth and Navigating Market Shifts (06:50–10:24)
Pushing Yourself to Grow
- Ryan shares that stretching for expensive real estate personally pushed him to build more wealth and his own company.
- "You have to push yourself into situations where you put your back up against the wall a little bit," especially in variable-income fields like sales. [07:13]
- Post-pandemic market is global, not local; "the amount of wealth creation...since 2020 is completely insane." [08:58]
Foreign Buyers: Myth or Reality?
- The “foreigners buying up NYC” narrative is "categorically false" now, though was true during Obama years when the dollar was weaker.
- Most NYC buyers are wealthy New Yorkers, not international investors. [10:40]
3. The New York Housing Crisis: Root Causes & Mamdani’s Policies (12:53–26:27)
What’s Driving Rent & Housing Cost Surges?
- "Inventory, lack of inventory, and the lack of incentive to build."
- Policies focus on “taking” rather than incentivizing creation; the burden of regulations and permitting stalls new builds. [12:59]
Regulatory Snafus: Graham’s Costly ADU Fiasco
- Graham shares his horror story of L.A. additions and permitting delays, highlighting bureaucratic headaches for landlords and why it disincentivizes housing creation. [14:16–17:39]
Should You Buy an Investment Property in NYC Now?
- Serhant: It’s often best to buy “when there’s fear in the marketplace.”
- Greatest deals have always been struck during periods of panic—post-9/11, 2008, Hurricane Sandy, and 2020. "You always negotiate with fear as a fundamental." [18:54]
The Mamdani Effect: Rent Freeze & Market Predictions
- Mamdani’s win and rent freeze proposal—met with both understanding and skepticism.
- Serhant: “Mirroring anger is probably the greatest way to the office ever. We saw Trump do it...Mamdani is the left’s version of Trump.” [24:58]
- Rent freeze would lead to disrepair, landlords disincentivized to maintain properties, repeating “derelict buildings” scenario of 60s/70s NYC. [26:29]
Notable Quote:
"You freeze rent? That's fine, but you're not freezing the rates, you're not freezing markets, you're not freezing time. And so who's going to fix all these apartments with what money? Like, with what profit? You're not, you're just not going to do it."
— Ryan Serhant [26:29]
If Serhant Were Mayor...
- Incentivize building with rezoning and tax credits, convert government-owned land, and bring businesses to NYC to create jobs and housing supply.
- "Every state is its own company. Right. New York is a company with a CEO, a COO, a board...and you have to incentivize your C-suite the same way you have to incentivize your interns to want to be there." [28:04]
4. Housing Innovation & Other Markets (31:03–37:46)
The Micro-Apartment Debate
- Micro-apartments are tricky: zoning, outdated infrastructure, and high per-unit costs make them a tough sell—even as more people crave space (Las Vegas as luxury size comparison).
Sun Belt Markets & NYC’s Irreplaceable Edge
- Vegas, Florida, and other lower-tax, lower-regulation markets are absorbing population (and investor) flight from NYC.
- Serhant remains "incredibly bullish" about New York’s future: "Cities are built by people, not politicians." [36:07]
5. Life, Wealth & Investing Amongst the Ultrarich (40:03–50:04)
Timing vs. Strategy
- Luck matters, but Serhant emphasizes planning, adaptability, and long-term strategy over market-timing.
"If you just have the right strategy and you just move forward slowly but surely, you'll hit good markets, you'll hit bad markets, but at the end of the day, you'll come out on top." [40:07]
Investment Stories: Pickleball Teams, Bitcoin, Sports Franchises
- Serhant is “asset light,” prefers flexibility. Craziest investment? Major League Pickleball team with Drew Brees.
- Missed $2B Bitcoin deal anecdote: “$9 million in Bitcoin in 2013...the seller said, 'Are you crazy?' ... I think it's like $2 billion today.” [44:11]
Being Around the 0.1%
- Tech, especially AI, is the next wave—and the rich move quickly.
- "The wealthy have gotten younger...there are incredible paths towards wealth. You just have to make a better new." [47:35]
- Biggest shift: wealth creation has become more meritocratic and digitized.
- Fast deals, minimal meetings: "Time is the greatest asset." — Ryan relaying a $210M deal over text. [48:51]
The Problem of Fake Buyers & Real Estate Scams
- Elaborate stories of "career fake buyers" and wire fraud abound.
"If you're buying something, and you're saying you have a budget of over $10 million, and I can't find you anywhere...if your social is sketchy..." [51:54]
- Biggest recent scam: wire fraud where buyers lose millions due to hacked email instructions. [56:03]
6. Advice for Entrepreneurs & the Future of Brokerage (57:21–64:28)
Areas of Opportunity
- Real estate is still prime; agent model now global and digital.
- Next growth areas: “AI and the data lake underneath AI,” plus “heavy, in-real-life service businesses.” [58:37]
- YouTube, especially short-form, and streaming also massive in reach and influence. (Discussion about “IShowSpeed” streamer making over $100M/year.) [61:50]
Observations On Culture and Wealth Creation
- Streamers are the new celebrities with deep, engaged communities, unlike anything before.
- Random but profound wealth still abounds: “the umbrella guys in New York City,” fireworks stands, sneaker sole patents, etc. [70:20]
7. Building and Running a Company (72:15–83:45)
Hiring & Company Culture
- Serhant’s 4 steps: establish credibility, earn respect, build trust, “perform a magic trick” (show unique value).
- The right hires bring unique skills and free up the founder; wrong hires drain time and culture.
[72:21–73:59]
In-person vs. Virtual Teams
- About half his team is virtual, but executive/leadership roles are increasingly in-person for productivity and “magic between moments.” [75:50]
Hard Legal Lessons
- Lawfare is real for any successful business: “Great legal is expensive. Bad legal costs you a fortune.”
[77:23] - Infrastructure of insurance and top-tier legal counsel is non-negotiable; must build these expenses into your business model.
8. NYC Real Estate Nuts & Bolts (83:45–96:26)
What’s the Cost of Entry in Manhattan?
- Roughly $1M for an apartment, $300k down, and ~$250k/year income.
- HOA/common charges, taxes, and board approvals are huge barriers.
- Co-ops are notorious for arbitrary rejection of buyers; condos have more regulation but are somewhat more flexible.
Commission Lawsuits & Changing Landscape
- Commission class actions—so far, haven’t changed much because low inventory favors experienced agents.
- Buyers are more educated about fees, and transparency is up, but service quality remains paramount.
Negotiations: Go Direct to the Listing Agent
- Savvy buyers can negotiate commissions way down if they go direct, but must know what they’re doing.
(Stories: [94:05–94:57])
9. Life in NYC vs. Elsewhere (96:26–101:11)
Why NYC (or not)?
- NYC offers unmatched intellectual curiosity, diversity, opportunity, and density.
- "You can walk outside and see someone you've never met, a hundred times a day, every day for a hundred years. You can't do that anywhere else." [96:42]
- Downsides: Cost, exclusivity, complexity; but driven residents are always fascinating.
10. The Netflix Show Effect & Personal Lessons (101:11–108:32)
“Owning Manhattan” Catapults the Brand
- Netflix exposure changed everything; inbound leads and audience engagement soared.
- Serhant is now an executive producer, enjoys crafting the show’s music and editing, but admits it’s “a ton of work.”
Work Ethic, Calendar, and the Downside of Hustle
- Serhant’s routine: up at 4 AM, working until late. Admits it’s “not the healthiest way to operate,” and desires eventually to delegate further and prioritize more creative/productive tasks.
- “At least I did everything I could with the productive hours that I have... I don't want to die and be like, at least I had a full calendar..." [105:14]
Skincare Secrets
- Ends lightheartedly with Serhant’s detailed skincare regimen—zinc sunscreen and V-beam laser! [106:20]
Notable Quotes
- On market cycles:
“You always negotiate with fear as a fundamental in good markets and in bad markets.” —Ryan Serhant ([18:54])
- On wealth creation:
“You don't have to reinvent the wheel. You just have to make a better one.” —Ryan Serhant ([47:39])
- On policy vs incentives:
“It's so much easier to talk about punishing success than it is to incentivize it. And that's one of the biggest problems you have in predominantly blue states...” —Ryan Serhant ([12:59])
- On NYC’s resilience:
“Cities are built by people, not politicians.” —Ryan Serhant ([36:07])
- On life in New York:
“New York is the most intellectually curious city on the planet.” —Ryan Serhant ([96:42])
- On work ethic:
“The least I can do is do the most. Like, if all else fails, at least I did everything I could with the productive hours that I have on the planet.” —Ryan Serhant ([104:19])
Key Timestamps
- 00:00–03:17 — State of the market: Is it a bubble?
- 10:40–12:59 — Who’s really buying NYC real estate?
- 14:16–17:39 — Regulatory pain stories for property owners.
- 18:54–22:16 — Buying in a fear-driven market.
- 24:58–27:29 — Consequences of “Freeze the Rent.”
- 40:03–44:11 — Investment philosophies, crazy opportunities (including Bitcoin story)
- 47:35–50:04 — Changes among the ultrawealthy.
- 57:21–59:26 — Career opportunities in real estate, AI, YouTube, and streaming.
- 72:15–73:59 — Building and managing teams.
- 101:11–103:20 — Netflix show impact.
- 104:19–105:14 — Reflections on work-life balance and ambition.
Closing Thoughts
Candid, packed with actionable insights, and peppered with war stories from the frontlines of real estate and business, this episode gives a rare glimpse into how the top pros interpret a “crazy” market, seize opportunity amidst chaos, and navigate the new world of wealth, work, and the urban experience.
For more:
- Season 2 of "Owning Manhattan" premieres December 5th on Netflix.