Stocks Just Hit ANOTHER Record High - WTF Is Happening?! | MeetKevin

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Stocks Just Hit ANOTHER Record High – WTF Is Happening?! | MeetKevin"

The Iced Coffee Hour with Graham Stephan and Jack Selby Guest: Meet Kevin (Kevin Paffrath) Date: May 29, 2026

---

Overview

In this engaging and fast-paced episode, Graham Stephan and Jack Selby sit down with recurring guest Meet Kevin (Kevin Paffrath) to dissect the current state of financial markets amid new all-time stock market highs in 2026. The episode covers why stocks are soaring, the risks lurking beneath the surface, strategies for building wealth, AI's real-world impact, and intensely practical investing takes. Candid stories about failures, big wins, and even private jet ownership keep the conversation accessible and entertaining, while illuminating what matters for both everyday investors and ambitious entrepreneurs.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Stock Market Rally: What’s Driving It? (00:52–03:56; 09:04–15:22)

• Insane Volatility and ‘Frustrating Rally’
  • The market is at record highs, but high volatility is the new norm. Leveraged ETFs and concentration in AI stocks (Nvidia, Oracle, OpenAI) are leading to wild swings.
  • Kevin: “This is going to be the most frustrating rally ever.” (00:52)
• Cyclical Overbuild and Risk
  • Kevin warns about patterns of overbuilding—especially in data centers and AI infrastructure—echoing past bubbles but on a much larger, debt-fueled scale.
  • Kevin: “All that crap's going to implode. One day it's all going to zero... leveraged ETFs are going to go to zero.” (01:25, 19:05, 22:01)
• Geopolitical Events Are ‘Buy the Dip’ Moments
  • Most wars are ultimately buy-the-dip opportunities for markets. The Iran situation is discussed as an example.
  • Kevin: “Geopolitics are almost always a buy the dip...” (09:07)
• Circular Investment in AI
  • Returns from AI are increasingly circular: big companies fund each other to prop up valuations.
  • Kevin: "AI giants Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle have built a circular network." (00:58)

---

2. Wealth-Building Strategies for 2026 (17:14–18:21; 28:57–30:12; 43:10–46:54)

• Active Income is Paramount
  • For most people (families earning $40k–$200k), boosting income—by leveling up skills or switching careers—is the most effective path before focusing on markets.
  • Kevin: “The best investment you could really make is trying to figure out how you and your spouse can increase your own income.” (17:14)
• Use of Cash & Portfolio Construction
  • Keeping significant cash "dry powder" (15%–20% of portfolio), ideally in Treasuries, is recommended for flexibility and psychological comfort.
  • Kevin: “If you have cash on the side, you’re probably not borrowing against your stock in which case you don’t have pressure to sell.” (28:58)
• No-Leverage, Debt-Free Mindset
  • After building wealth with margin and real estate leverage, Kevin now avoids all personal and business debt, feeling happier and less stressed.
  • Kevin: "I’ve got probably four times as much cash than I’ve ever had before now. And I feel great about it. No debt, too." (30:12)

---

3. Dangers of Leverage and Potential Risks (19:05–23:10; 25:50–27:42)

• Leverage = Massive Downside Risk
  • Leveraged ETFs (especially 3x and proposal 5x funds) will eventually go to zero in the next real credit crunch, due to the speed and scale of modern corrections.
  • Kevin: “When that happens, TQQQ is really going to suck. In fact it’ll probably go to zero, which you can’t come back from zero.” (19:05, 22:01)
• Hiding Debt: Corporate Financial Risk
  • Companies like Meta are using off-balance-sheet financing to obscure debt, reminiscent of pre-2008 corporate behaviors.
  • Kevin: “Meta is now hiding debt from their balance sheet... $27 billion wouldn’t even show up.” (25:08)
• Credit Cycles and Overbuild
  • The main medium-term risk: massive overbuilding of data centers, fueled by debt, will eventually lead to a bust.
  • Kevin: "When you have an industrial boom, we overbuild... and all that crap’s going to implode." (23:21)

---

4. Is It Easier or Harder to Build Wealth in 2026? (41:02–43:10, 112:07)

• Harder Than Ever for Most
  • Despite AI, only those who master and implement it at scale see the gains. Most people are not capitalizing fully, and corporates capture the profit.
  • Kevin: “AI doesn't make people wealthy unless they're like at the top tier... the people who will make most of the profits will be the shareholders.” (41:02, 42:51)
  • Graham: “Most people only use a small fraction of what they are capable of... you have what it takes, but most people don’t operate like that.” (110:36)

---

5. Practical Investing Ideas and Debates (36:37–37:08; 46:58–56:47)

• Mutual Funds and ETFs (SPY, QQQ, QQQM)
  • QQQM is tipped as a better, lower-fee option for long-term tech investors.
  • Triple-leverage and daily options trading are approached with strong caution.
• Real Estate: Contrarian Calls
  • Kevin: Advocates buying real estate between 2022-2032—primarily in cash and in desirable markets—betting that rates will eventually drop and enable massive refinancing and leverage in the 2030s.
  • Graham: Makes the opposite case, selling his properties, holding cash, and emphasizing the yield on Treasuries over current real estate yields.
  • Kevin: “I think this is going to be the best decade ever, 2022–2032, to buy real estate.” (46:58)
• Who Should Buy vs. Rent
  • Buying is only appropriate for those who can put 35–50% down; most people should rent.
  • Kevin: “People with a lot of cash [should buy], which is not very relatable... Most people should probably rent.” (61:00)

---

6. The Role and Future of AI

• Biggest Opportunity: AI Implementation
  • Both Kevin and Grant Cardone (off air) stress that mastering AI in traditional sectors (insurance, bookkeeping, law) is the clearest path to fast wealth.
  • Kevin: “The people who are going to make the most money are those best at implementing AI at things that are traditionally boring.” (43:10)
• AI is Underused, For Now
  • Only 18% of companies have actually implemented AI in a meaningful way; massive scope for upskilling and business opportunities.
• Practical Tips
  • Kevin uses Gemini for daily tasks, ChatGPT for writing, and rotates between models for unbiased insights.

---

7. Personal and Financial Reflections (62:46–77:22; 77:34–89:17)

• Best Money Spent = Family Experiences
  • Kevin: “Of all the money I spent, my absolute favorite money to spend—family vacations... those are priceless.” (76:09)
• Private Jet Ownership – Worth It?
  • Broke down the honest economics of private jet ownership—roughly $3 million per year, $10M+ all-in for three years.
  • Kevin: “Was it worth it? Yeah, I wouldn’t change it. Would I buy a private jet again? I probably will.” (78:18)
• Mistakes & Regulatory Risks
  • Worst waste: attracting regulatory scrutiny via high-volume options trading and public fundraising.
  • Kevin: “Anything that would attract bad regulatory attention... even if innocent, it’s still a burden.” (81:48)

---

8. Portfolio Allocations (30:04–31:43; 61:30–62:05)

• Kevin’s Portfolio (2026)
  • Vast majority: Short-term Treasuries/cash equivalents.
  • Other large chunks: House Hack equity, some stocks (heavy on software, ex: Circle, Applovin, Axon, Intuit), a bit of diversified personal real estate.
  • Kevin: “Probably four times as much cash as ever before... The vast majority of [non-business wealth] is short-term treasuries, some stock, the rest House Hack.” (30:12, 61:30)

---

9. "How Much is Enough?" – Retirement and Spending (67:41–74:48)

• Retirement Math
  • Kevin: $8–10 million in investible assets is now the target for a family of four to be safe from market swings. $4 million isn’t enough if you hit a 50% drawdown.
• Spend on Experiences, Not Stuff
  • Grand life lessons echo throughout: Time with family, experiences, and reinvestment in skills and health are most rewarding.

---

10. Personal Development & Life Lessons (110:36–113:12)

• Advice for Listeners
  • Kevin: “Don’t ever skimp on experiences... If you’re jaded about AI, know that 80–90% of people are as well. Be part of that 10–20% and you’ll always have a job.” (109:30)
  • Graham: “Most people use a small fraction of what they’re capable of. If you just approach the day as though you have to do it ... you’ll accomplish so much.” (110:36)
  • Chris: “The thing that will cause you to lose is inaction, not action. Failure is just information.” (112:07)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Cycles:
  • “At some point, TQQQ is really going to suck. In fact, it’ll probably go to zero, which you can’t come back from zero.” — Kevin (19:05)
• On AI in Wealth:
  • “Corporations will take almost all of the profit from AI. Guess who gets cut out? People—shareholders win.” — Kevin (41:02)
• On Risk and Cash:
  • “No debt. Feels great. So I think that's probably the easiest comparison…” — Kevin (30:12)
• On Private Jets:
  • “$3 million per year... probably spent $10 million on owning a private jet for three years... Would I buy one again? Honestly, I probably will.” — Kevin (80:50, 81:23)
• On Spending:
  • “By far my absolute favorite money to spend—family vacations. Those are priceless.” — Kevin (76:09)
• On Retirement:
  • “8 to $10 million in assets, whether it’s real estate, stocks… anything lower, if you’re 40, you’re going to run out.” — Kevin (67:46)
• On Contrarianism:
  • “I call it: this is going to be the most frustrating rally ever.” — Kevin (14:53)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Stock Market Rally & Risks – 00:52–03:56, 09:04–15:22
• Best Investment for Average Families – 17:14–18:21, 28:57–30:12
• AI's Impact on Income – 41:02–43:10, 46:54–48:56
• Real Estate Debate – 46:58–56:47
• Retirement and Spending Philosophy – 67:41–77:22
• Regulatory Pitfalls & Private Jet Economics – 77:34–89:17
• Portfolio Construction Advice – 30:04–31:43, 61:30–62:05
• Final Wisdom & Life Lessons – 109:30–113:12

---

Tone & Notable Dynamics

• Conversational, humorous, and candid.
• Host-guest dynamic is constructive but not always in agreement, particularly on real estate.
• Practical, no-hype advice but with “big money energy”—seven kids, jets, and multimillion-dollar swings.

---

Recap: Actionable Takeaways for Listeners

• Focus on boosting your income before trying to invest your way to wealth.
• Only use leverage (margin, leveraged ETFs, debt for real estate) if you fully understand the risks—otherwise, avoid.
• Keep a healthy cash position for flexibility and peace of mind.
• Don’t chase what’s popular; look for value and opportunity where others are pessimistic.
• Master AI and apply it to traditional, “boring” areas—this remains wide open.
• Spend on experiences with loved ones, not just things.
• Be highly cautious about seeking regulatory attention through your finance/investing activities.
• If you’re not sure, renting is safer than buying unless you have substantial cash.
• Finally, don’t be afraid of failures—pivot, learn, and keep grinding.

---

“Every single year from now, over the next 10 years, it’s just going to get harder and harder. So if there’s any motivation to leave from all of this, the sooner you can grind and make more money now, the better.” — Kevin (93:49)

---

A full episode for market watchers, ambitious investors, and anyone keen to understand 2026’s economic realities—and how to play a smart, sane, and fulfilling long game.

Transcript

[Progressive Insurance Narrator]

Insurance isn't one size fits all, and shopping for it shouldn't feel like squeezing into something that just doesn't fit. That's why drivers have enjoyed Progressive's Name youe Price Tool for years. With the Name youe Price Tool, you tell them what you want to pay and they show you options that fit your budget enough. Hunting for discounts, trying to calculate rates, and tinkering with coverages. Maybe you're picking out your very first policy, or maybe you're just looking for something that works better for you and your family. Either way, they make it simple to see your options. No guesswork, no surprises. Ready to see how easy and fun shopping for car insurance can be? Visit progressive.com and give the name your price tool a try. Take the stress out of shopping and find coverage that fits your life on your terms. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and Coverage Match Limited by state law

[Kevin]

this is going to be the most frustrating rally ever.

[Chris Camillo]

AI giants Nvidia, OpenAI and Oracle have

[Kevin]

built a circular network.

[Graham Stephan]

It easier to build wealth right now for the average person in 2026.

[Kevin]

Unfortunately, AI doesn't make people wealthy unless they're like at the top tier of being able to use AI. But the people who will make most of the profits will be the shareholders, which is scary. When folks are saying this is a red flag, you don't necessarily see it that way. Nobody saw this company.

[Graham Stephan]

What do you think is the biggest risk to the economy right now that no one's talking about?

[Kevin]

All that crap's going to implode. One day it's all going to zero. One day they're going to overbuild and it's all going to crash. So if there's any motivation to leave from all of this, I would say every single year from now, over the next 10 years, it's just going to get harder and harder and harder. So I don't know where it all comes out. I don't know when it's all going to collapse, but it's going to be ugly and a lot of people are going to get really hurt and leveraged. ETFs are going to go to zero.

[Graham Stephan]

Kevin, thank you so much for coming on the Iced Coffee Hour.

[Kevin]

Glad to be back.

[Graham Stephan]

Really appreciate it, man. So I'm curious. The big short investor Michael Burry said the stock market is minutes away from a bloody crash. Stocks are hitting a record high, up 19% since the March bottom. Jack was curious about this one. What stocks have you made the most money on?

[Kevin]

Ooh, well, let's answer that first. Michael Burry's probably right. I actually think that this market is going to see a whole lot more crazy ups and downs because what's gotten really popular lately has been super concentration and leveraged ETFs. So you see it like at the end of the day, in the beginning of the day, things just go crazy up and down. And I think we're going to see that craziness even. Like, these are going to be the most volatile years, I bet over the next few years because I kind of think a lot of people like it can't go higher and watch that. I follow the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100. It's going to go through like a thousand and people are going to be like, what? This isn't fair. Why does it keep going up? It shouldn'. But between here and there, Burry's probably going to be right. Be like, see, I told you there was a 19% dip. And then it goes right back up. It's crazy right now.

[Chris Camillo]

So what about the stock?

[Kevin]

So on the stock, most money in the last like six months, Circle actually bought it around 68. And then of course it fell to like 58. I'm really good at like buying when it's still like, kind of got some room to go down, like timing that bottom so hard. But now it's like 120, 130. And I'm like, okay, great. This is, that's a really good play. You know, longer term, over the last four or five years, Nvidia has been really great. But, you know, they're also losers as part of that more recently, like, the hell with Netflix. I shouldn't say bad words on the show and the Iced Coffee Hour, but I bought Netflix, made money from my buys when they were going through that whole Warner Brothers crap. But recently they just keep bleeding and they're such money makers, nobody realizes they'll probably exceed the advertising that that. Yeah. You know, YouTube's growth has so. YouTube's advertising growth?

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Netflix is going to blow it out of the water. Nobody's even paying attention to it.

[Chris Camillo]

And what stock over your lifetime have you made the most money on?

[Kevin]

Oh, by far, Tesla.

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah, yeah, I remember, man. I think it was in 2020 or 2021 you showed me. I think it was like a JP Morgan account.

[Kevin]

Yep, yep, yep.

[Graham Stephan]

I'm just going to say there was $40 million.

[Kevin]

Oh, yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

And I remember looking at that and just thinking the only thing I would do, I wanted to click sell for you.

[Kevin]

I. I know Just sell everything. Right.

[Graham Stephan]

I wanted you to sell so badly and just lock it in. It's.

[Kevin]

And the crazy thing is it'd be like, you know, here in California you pay like 35% in gains taxes, you know, because it's even, even the long term. Right. Short term you'd be at 55% gone.

[Chris Camillo]

Poof.

[Kevin]

More than half. Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

But even then you would walk away in the 20s.

[Kevin]

That's true.

[Graham Stephan]

And I think I told you back then, man, I would just take a year off.

[Kevin]

Right? Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

How much did you put into Tesla? Was that all Tesla gains? Like what did that $40 million look like? Because I swear I blinked my eyes and all of the sudden it was just like everyone here and Kevin was lead charge by miles.

[Kevin]

I wouldn't say it was all Tesla. There was a chunk of it, I would say about $8 million of it was margin. So not all of that 40 was. Was. And I have a video on this somewhere where I break down like how much of it is margin or whatever. So the video would be a really good reference to look up, you know, the forty million dollar portfolio. I want to say my buying because I bought Tesla. I remember before COVID in like 2017, I'm like, guys, I got 500 grand in Tesla and then it went down, it was like 300 grand, you know, and I'm like, oh. And everybody's leaving me comments like, you're such a. Because it was during production hell with, with the Model 3. Same was true, by the way, when I bought Nvidia in. When I launched my ETF back at the end of 22, I bought a ton of Nvidia at the same time and it just went down another like 20%. And everybody's making fun of me. I want a loser. That was a six or seven figure return on that. Multimillions of dollars from Nvidia. Tesla was probably 7 million of that 40 in gains. You know, I think the total was like maybe 15. That was in Tesla too concentrated. But that's from memory. But yeah, I mean, hey, there are winners and losers, right? Like I lost money on, I lost money on a firm back in 2021. I think I rode that down probably a million and a half. Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Just how does that feel looking back then, losing a million and a half on that?

[Kevin]

I've. That's not the only place I've lost a million dollars because I've lost a million dollars in even just other business ideas or opportunities or like, oh, you know, I'm going to go learn how to be a pilot that probably cost a million dollars, right? So I. I don't really look at the number anymore. I look at it more as I. It was a really expensive college education, you know, so like, hey, you know, what lessons could I learn from why I didn't sell a firm earlier, right? And how can I not make those stupid mistakes again?

[Graham Stephan]

How do you say that so casually there? Like, I could lose a million here.

[Kevin]

Honestly, it's probably the happiest I've ever been right now because I really just don't care about the numbers because I got these beautiful seven children, you know, I don't have any debt. There's no worry about anything. It's like, I don't have margin debt, a home debt or whatever. And I realized I'm in a really fortunate place because, you know, there's YouTube income, there's other revenue. You know, I run House act now. We call it reinvest. So for me, I'm like, I just want to build. And I don't really have this stress or fear of a downside. Back then I did, you know, I had $8 million in margin debt. I had 20 properties with mortgages on them, right? So it's weird, but like, I'm way less stressed today than I was then.

[Graham Stephan]

Didn't you used to make fun of Dave Ramsey though, for the debt aspect? And now you're like, well, yeah, billionaire broke.

[Chris Camillo]

Well, confidently.

[Kevin]

That is still true. I still believe in the billionaire broke thesis. So I still have that as an ambition. Like, I still want to do that. And I think I can with, you know, the real estate company with. With House Hack Reinvest. But yeah, it's maybe like a. What do you call it, like a mea culpa when you're like, damn, the guy always used to make fun of Dave Ramsey. I'm kind of like, maybe he kind of had a point, you know, like, so respect. I respect you feel.

[Graham Stephan]

So you feel better paying off all the debt.

[Kevin]

Great.

[Graham Stephan]

Do you recommend the average person pay off their debt?

[Kevin]

It depends. Because the tough thing is, you know, you want to be able to build wealth. And I personally think one of the best ways to build wealth is real estate, which is really annoying for people to hear right now because rates are so high. It's like nobody's building wealth with 6% interest rates. That's fair. That'll change over time. We're not going to be at 6% interest rates forever. You know, I think the biggest risk now that people have is there's so much of a desire to take out margin debt for betting markets or Robinhood or whatever. And I think that's where people are going to get destroyed. And I do think that debt, you know, there's the AI side of debt. We could talk about that later. But I think a lot of people are drowning in debt right now. I think a lot of people have a lot of credit card debt, multiple credit card debts, student loans. I mean, you know, in some areas on the margin, you're seeing car delinquency skyrocket, credit card delinquency skyrocket, a lot lower income, and it's really hard. But it goes to show that that debt is something that does kill you and kind of prevents you from building a net worth.

[Graham Stephan]

So what's causing the stock market rally?

[Kevin]

Okay, so once we had the ceasefire, what was really interesting was during the Iran war, geopolitics are almost always a by the dip, by the way. And it's always painful to say because everybody sees every war as like, this is going to be the recession, this is it, the nukes are going, which it is possible that Iran is secretly building a nuclear weapon in Pickaxe mountain. But really, what percent I would give it about an 8% chance that they one day, just like in one, in like 12 realities, they just wake up one morning and go, sub, we got a nuke. And it's like, open up the strain. Otherwise we're throw, we're lobbing it, we're just going to lob it. Go ahead, shoot it out of the sky. Guess what's going to happen.

[Chris Camillo]

A lot of people are going to die.

[Kevin]

All that radioactive material is just going to go blow over Europe. Yes.

[Graham Stephan]

One in 12 realities, you give that an 8% chance.

[Kevin]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

That's the equivalent of, by the way, someone at a crafts table basically rolling like a 10, which can happen multiple

[Chris Camillo]

times in a row.

[Kevin]

Yes, yes. Yeah. Well, I mean, looking to Pickaxe Mountain is what I would tell your viewer because it's, it's the one that we didn't strike when we did Operation Midnight hammer with the B2 bombers, and it's the one that we have not struck during this last operation. Why, meanwhile, they're still building. It is weird. It's too deep. I think it's way too deep. Like they built it probably twice as deep as the last ones and our bombs can't reach it.

[Graham Stephan]

And you think America knows about this?

[Kevin]

Oh, yeah, I think they know that's also where the highly enriched uranium went, because we saw in satellite Imagery trucks. It's not a lot, but the 460kg of highly enriched uranium that Iran has, we saw trucks back up to the various different facilities that were enriching. And you know, if you read between the lines, they moved it and they probably moved it to their deepest facilities.

[Graham Stephan]

How do you know about this?

[Kevin]

It's everywhere.

[Graham Stephan]

You can Google.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I mean, you have to kind of look for it because it's not the sexiest, like front page news. So what I do is this sounds really weird, but I still read the newspaper, like the physical newspaper, and it's usually on like B7, you know, in the back of the newspaper and it's like pickaxe mountain exposed and it'll be in the New York Times.

[Graham Stephan]

You know, it's interesting, Tim Dillon had a whole rant about this and he just said it's not good news. Just, just details like this, it just, it doesn't make for good news. They want the clickbaity headlines of this and this.

[Kevin]

Oh, like pickaxing. Yeah, of course. Oh, of course. Oh, yeah. And that's the struggle, especially now with like. I mean, it's one of the reasons I turn my phone on like grayscale is I can't go on X without getting distracted by like, oh, damn, look at that police shootout. You know, it's like, dude, I can't work anymore with what I see on X. Or I open up Instagram and it's boobs. Or I open up, you know, TikTok and it's aviation.

[Chris Camillo]

I.

[Kevin]

Or worse, it's female fighter pilots flying.

[Graham Stephan]

You know it's based on your viewing preferences. Right? Because I definitely don't get boobs. I get reef aquariums and Rolex watches and dudes.

[Kevin]

Wow. Just bodybuilders, man. Just abs.

[Graham Stephan]

So getting back to the rally here, is it justified in what's causing it?

[Kevin]

Yeah, partially so. During the geopolitical crisis, you had valuations tank, especially at companies like Nvidia and amd. So I like to look at companies on what I call a forward growth basis. So without getting too granular, basically, what's its valuation, how much money is it earning? And then I divide that by its future growth rate. How much do we actually think they're going to grow earnings by? I think that's really important because you're going to see companies where you'll have like a palantir. People like, oh, that's 100 forward PE ratio. That's too high. Okay. But they're growing earnings at 40% a year. So you're trading for like two and a half peg or whatever. And for software, software companies, that's usually actually totally fair. AMD and Nvidia, which are even better than software companies, they just design chips. They don't make the chips, they just design them. Their margins are through the roof. Nvidia claims AMD in margins. But anyway, so we had a thesis that hardware would boom because earnings season was coming up and the valuations were low. And there's no sign AI is rolling over yet. One day Michael Burry will be right. You know, we all know these depreciation schedules are crazy. Or the circular investments. Like you saw the Cerebras ipo. Like basically, quick example, somebody's trying to reinvent the mousetrap, make a different server chip. They go ipo, but the only way they could IPO is if they show us revenues. So how do they show US revenues? They call up one of their big investors who happens to be the president of the board at OpenAI. So OpenAI gives them a $20 billion contract. Oh yeah, we'll use your chips. And now that guy probably is the one who set it up. Now they can IPO the company. Company goes in IPOs, that guy gets rich. He probably essentially set up the deal. Right? This is the oversimplifying, the circular flow. That's like a 30 minute video on its own, right? Oversimplifying. But the point of it is there's no sign that that's stopping yet. So low valuations combined with a lot of people sold a lot of stock during the Iran crisis. I mean, Ross Gerber came on and I love Ross, but when he's like, oh yeah, Kevin, we're telling everybody raise cash right now. I'm like, dude, if, if everybody's raising cash right now, everybody's just going to plow into the market when it's green again. And so that's why we've seen this crazy rocket up.

[Graham Stephan]

So it sounds like you have to be a contrarian investor to a certain degree. Which makes me think too, if everyone is saying sell, the market's overvalued to see some of the highest PE ratios in history. Schwab said the stock market is expensive by every single metric possible. And if everyone is shouting we're overvalued, it makes me think the contrarian of that is Buy More.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I, ironically, I agree with you. I, I actually think this, I call it, this is going to be the most frustrating rally ever where people will look at 20, 26 and be like, how did this turn into another 20, 21, where the gap between the Bears and the Bulls went astronomical. And some people just lost everything because they were bearish on it. And other people just made mega fortunes because nobody saw this company.

[Chris Camillo]

So how should this apply then to the average person? Because you have a lot of people out there that are saying, oh, you should just buy, like, mutual funds, very safe investments, t bills, you know, like a standard diverse portfolio. And then you have other people like Chris Camillo that say, hey, you should allocate a sizable chunk, a meaningful amount towards risk capital. Maybe like some ipoing companies, some smaller cap companies, higher risk companies. What do you think the average person should be doing? Let's just say you take like the majority of people, they're earning between, let's say like 40k and 200k as a family. I know it's a huge spread. Yeah, but like, how should they approach today's market? Here is an absolute fact. If you're not creating content for your business, you're leaving a bunch of money on the table. But creating good content is expensive, time consuming, and honestly, just like, really hard to do.

[Graham Stephan]

This is exactly why we partnered with Opus Clip. They just launched Agent Opus and it genuinely changes what's possible for content creation.

[Chris Camillo]

Agent Opus takes your ideas and turns them into real polished social media ready videos. All you have to do is upload an audio file and it builds the video for you. No cameras, no editing software, and no production team.

[Graham Stephan]

This means if you have a product or a service you want to promote, all you got to do is drop in the audio file or the script and Agent Opus handles the rest. We're talking text to video done. And it actually looks good.

[Chris Camillo]

And that's the thing, honestly, most AI video tools just flat out don't even work. Agent Opus, on the other hand, does work. The output is clean, professional, and actually something that you'd want to post.

[Graham Stephan]

So if you're ready to level up your content, Agent Opus is live and ready to help. All you got to do to get started is visit Agent Opus Pro slash Iced. Again, that's Agent Opus Pro slash iced with the link down below in the description. Thanks again to Opus Clip for sponsoring this episode. And now let's get back to the podcast.

[Chris Camillo]

The majority of people, they're earning between, let's say like 40k and 200k as a family. I know it's a huge spread. Yeah, but like, how should they approach today's market?

[Kevin]

If you're in that range that 240 to 200 probably the best investment you could really make is trying to figure out how can you and your spouse increase your own income. There are people that I know that went from being a nurse and with over time they're making $120,000 a year to saying, you know what, I'm going to go back to night school and I'm going to study to be an anesthesiologist. Two, three years later, I do have to take on some debt. But two or three years later, they're like an anesthesiologist nurse instead of a normal nurse. And now all of a sudden they're making $400,000 a year. They're an independent contractor instead of a W2 person. Now they get write offs. They could write off all their side expenses. They could write off, you know, whatever their education, you name it. And so what's fascinating to me is there's so many opportunities to grow your skill set and make more money that that's where I would focus first for most people. Then I would focus on owning my own home and then I would focus on, yeah, adding some risk assets in the diversified portfolio. I think gets really interesting when you're retired, you know, when you're on the other side of the hump.

[Chris Camillo]

Okay, that's so interesting you say that because what I've done is I have like maybe 10% of my portfolio in SPY. Everything else, virtually everything else is like QQQ I see. Or VUG, which is just like large cap. It's like one top 100 stocks. A lot of people tell me that that's like ultra risky. But then you also have this other side of social media that are saying, there was this chart that I saw and it was if you bought $100,000 worth of TQQQ, how long it would take for you to be a millionaire. And at a bunch of different years. So like the year 2000 all the way up until the year like 2020. And it was not long. Every year, like maybe the longest was like 10 years. But even then, like people were. The returns of TQQQ are ridiculous.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

What do you think about also the alternative side of like having ultra risky ETFs like triple leveraged QQQ, which is like very bad.

[Graham Stephan]

Jack has a problem with hindsight bias. Well, he likes to say, oh, if I bought Nvidia, I'm just saying my

[Chris Camillo]

QQQ portfolio has done pretty well. Could have just as easily had 20% cash position.

[Kevin]

I mean, in fairness, over the last 26 years, we've really had a Technological boom, right? I mean look at where we were with technology 20 years ago. I think counter strike came out like 24 years ago. That was like these were like your first video games, right? And we were running on you know, 8 megabit Internet. If you were at a T1 connection, you were lucky. And you moved from DSL to cable. That was lucky too. But anyway, so yeah, I mean there is some hindsight bias there, but I actually think the SPY and the cues that you said, great, I wouldn't touch triple leverage because I think as soon as we get our credit event, which will happen one day, some black swan, whether it's private credit or all this crazy off balance sheet financing that's happening with like Meta and the big, you know, the Blue Owls and the mega caps to finance their data centers, all that crap's going to implode. One day it's all going to zero. One day they're going to overbuild and it's all going to crash. And when that happens, TQQ is really going to suck. In fact it'll probably go to zero, which you can't come back from zero. That's actually why the SEC just banned 5x leverage points.

[Chris Camillo]

Oh my gosh, they had 5x. Why did I not know about this?

[Kevin]

So they weren't available yet. So they banned it before, before they became available because it was getting so ridiculous. And if you look at just either the tariff shock or this Iran shock, you would be at zero, 5x would already be at zero. They would have all already collapsed. So the SEC, you know, did a good thing there. They stopped that because they would have already been at 0.3x leveraged the next recession. Because we are so like we've never been through a real recession. Well, I don't even know that during COVID we had triple leveraged ETFs. We should look into that. But let's say we did absent Covid because it was such a short recession. Absent Covid, we didn't have triple leveraged ETFs in the great financial crisis back then they would have all gone to zero.

[Chris Camillo]

So you would always argue, hey, don't touch the triple leverage etf. But you do think QQQ is fine?

[Kevin]

Totally. Oh, I think QQQ is great. Love it. If you're going to buy it long term, get QQQM is a little trick. So slightly different. But their fees are like, I want to say half or you look into the fees. The reason is they advertise qqq. So everybody who comes in from the advertising funnel buys Q. Q. Q. Because that's where they spread the name. Everybody who knows like the financial advisors that they're trying to, you know, also have use their product, they have QQM

[Graham Stephan]

for them and lower fee, I have no idea. So what do you think is the biggest risk to the economy right now that no one's talking about?

[Kevin]

It's that credit, credit, credit, credit, credit. That's it.

[Chris Camillo]

So explain this like I'm five because Jack is five.

[Graham Stephan]

Yes, basically explain it like to Jack

[Kevin]

a lot of debt that so, so people owing other people money and we don't know if those people are going to be around in the next five or 10 years. Whether those are data centers, people who are building out, you know, H100 Nvidia facilities or data centers or they are construction companies that are building these and rapidly expanding their debt so they can hire people to build out. Whether they're you know, generator selling companies, you know, whether it's, I mean not generac but there are plenty of other even private companies that are trying to build out data centers and everybody's trying to expand quickly. So people are taking on debt to facilitate data center construction somewhere that's all going to go to crap one day when that cycle turns.

[Chris Camillo]

So how are you so sure of that?

[Kevin]

I'm not. That's the toughest part is I don't know know where the credit cycle will be. I think it'll be in data centers but it could be in somewhere else. So somewhere.

[Chris Camillo]

So what you're assuming probably will happen because these, we don't just, we will always need data centers but there will be a few winners, a lot of losers and these losers are going to be caught up in the credit cycle.

[Kevin]

Well it's typically what happens when you have an industrial boom is we overbuild. So there were like a quick comparison. If you go back to like the dot com bubble we always think of like the consumer.com bubble like pets.com or whatever. But before that you had the infrastructure buildout boom. Dark fiber basically. Let's lay fiber everywhere we can. I think there was a company called WorldCom and Cross Country, I don't know, whatever. Massive debt expenditures driven by spending from the big mega cap incumbents of the day which is exactly what's happening today except just for scope comparison back then the total like the highest annual capex spend was $82 billion from all of the mega cap incumbents back then. Today Nvidia almost makes $80 billion in a quarter in about 100 days. Nvidia makes about $80 billion. The top five data center plays. So like Google, Meta, Oracle, Microsoft and Amazon are projected to spend over $1 trillion in CapEx next year, which is more than 10 times what we saw in the dot com bubble. And I think a lot of that is financed by debt. There's a reason why companies who are doing great, you know, Google's great. There's a reason why though Google and Meta have stopped doing stock buybacks. If you go look at their earnings, you're like, oh, last year you guys were buying back all your stock. They do that because they issue a lot of stock comp to their people and the people who work there are like, well, I want to buy a house or a boat, I'm going to sell some stock. So the company buys back the stock so it doesn't impact the stock price. And the CEOs get yelled at or fired because the stock goes down. So they buy back stock. They've stopped doing that because they're out of money, which is crazy. If you look at Microsoft's balance sheet, it's like, what'd you guys do with all your money?

[Chris Camillo]

It's all gone.

[Kevin]

It's crazy. The balance sheets have gone from amazing to bad. And Meta is now hiding debt from their balance sheet. They're literally able to structure somehow legally, $27 billion lease commitments that don't show up on their balance sheets. That was a blue owl deal that they just did last year. Doesn't show up on their balance sheet. So a new investor who goes in says, oh, you know, I'm going to be a diligent investor, I'm going to look at the balance sheet. $27 billion wouldn't even show up. So you wouldn't even know, which is scary. So I don't know where it all comes out. I don't know when it's all going to collapse, but it's, it's going to be an overbuild. It's all going to collapse. It's going to be ugly and a lot of people are going to get really hurt and leveraged ETFs are going to go to zero.

[Graham Stephan]

I was reading though that a lot of those aren't really going to impact the broader market, that if you're in the s and P500, you're going to have very little to worry about outside of a few deals that seem to be isolated.

[Kevin]

That's the hope. The biggest thing that concerns me about the economy outside of credit is the labor market. Labor market drives everything. There's a reason why retail sales are still booming right now, which is crazy. That they are. But they just keep beating estimates. Even with oil prices, what, 50%? Well, actually we're almost double the oil prices per barrel that we had in January, which is also crazy. But despite that, people are still spending more than economists have been expecting. And that's even excluding.

[Graham Stephan]

But that's oil and gas all driven by the top 1%, predominantly. Yeah, okay, like maybe of that spending is like the 1% because the stock market is so high and it's an annoyance to go and fill up your gas tank and pay $7, but you don't care.

[Kevin]

This is true. There is a massive, massive wealth effect. People are feeling rich because the stock market is at all time highs. And so that'll actually bring me to my point. And you're right. Yeah. The top, you know, 1% has a big spending top. 10% as a big spending top half spends almost all of it.

[Graham Stephan]

Right.

[Kevin]

The bottom half doesn't matter so much for spending, which is sad. But the point is that's what drives the economy. The consumer is still 72% of the economy. You know, that'll start flipping because of AI. But what's really interesting is when people lose their jobs, then they stop spending. And so that's what makes me the most scared is that once we see that slowdown, we don't know when it's going to be. But once we get that construction build out, slow, all these great jobs reports we're getting, they're not going to have that support anymore from construction or from, you know, software developers getting hired. Ironically, even in the age of AI, we're seeing more software developers get hired now.

[Graham Stephan]

And here's my prediction. The stock market's going to keep going higher and higher and higher and higher. And people are going to keep saying, it's a bubble, it's a bubble, it's a bubble. And then there's going to be a point where they're going to say, I was wrong, it's not a bubble. And they're going to buy.

[Kevin]

And that's when you sell it.

[Graham Stephan]

That's the moment you got to click. Sell is where all the doubters say, I can't keep doing this any longer, I'm back.

[Chris Camillo]

But they'll never do that. They, Michael Burry will. I just don't think that.

[Graham Stephan]

I think there will get. There will get to a point where the majority of people out there who've been sitting on cash say, I've lost So much in opportunity cost. I've been wrong. I'm going to buy it.

[Chris Camillo]

So what do you think then for the average person? Because this is one of Graham's favorite things.

[Kevin]

Yes.

[Chris Camillo]

Is having what we call dry powder.

[Kevin]

Yo.

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah. So having a good amount of cash like your. You said your portfolio is what, 15% cash?

[Graham Stephan]

20.

[Chris Camillo]

20. 20% cash.

[Graham Stephan]

Treasuries.

[Kevin]

Yeah, cash.

[Chris Camillo]

So he has 20% cash treasuries, a

[Graham Stephan]

stabilized asset cash equivalence.

[Chris Camillo]

Do you think that this is a reasonable approach for most people? Like, what percentage cash or dry powder Treasuries cash equivalents should they have set on the side to purchase in. In the case something happens? Like we have another, like geopolitical.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

Crash.

[Kevin]

I think that's great. I actually, I'm a big fan. I, you know, I think a lot of people could benefit from that because what it means is, first of all, if you have cash on the sidelines, you probably don't have a lot of margin. Depends on what kind of structuring or deals you're getting. But margin rates for most people are very high right now. And so you've had. If you have cash on the side, there's a good chance you're not borrowing against your stock, in which case you don't have pressure to sell. And if the market goes down, the market goes down, doesn't matter. You have that opportunity to buy. And psychologically, when people are buying when the market's going down, it kills that feeling of fear. Fear of, oh, crap, it's going down. I'm losing all this money. You're buying. If you're buying, you're psychologically seeing it as an opportunity, which is great because you're increasing your ownership. Like I always see it as ownership with any stock, if you like, if you have a favorite company or you want Nvidia, the stock price is at 150 during the geopolitical crisis. Great. I was able to buy more ownership of that company at a lower price. It's great. Dcan.

[Chris Camillo]

So then how is your net worth divided up? What does your portfolio look like in the middle of 2026?

[Kevin]

Well, there's a good amount of Treasuries cash equivalents. Love that. Really big fan of that.

[Graham Stephan]

What percentage cash equivalent?

[Kevin]

A lot of my net worth is in house hack, in reinvest. And I don't really know what the daily value of that is because it's a private company. There's one value based on what we recently raised at, then there's a value based on what we're about to raise at probably in, like, September, you know, and then there are also stock options. So there are. That's a big skew. But let me put it in comparison to history. In comparison to history, I've got probably four times as much cash than I've ever had before now. And I feel great about it. No debt, too, which feels great. So I think that's probably the easiest comparison.

[Chris Camillo]

There was a viral clip from our podcast that occurred recently of Kevin O' Leary saying, you're not truly wealthy until you have $5 million of cash liquid available to you at any given moment. What do you think about that?

[Kevin]

I think that's great because you now you're sitting around with true, like, just fu. Money, basically. It doesn't really matter if you, you know, the car needs a $10,000 repair or the house needs a new roof or whatever. If you've got five in cash sitting around, those are all just rounding errors. Right. That's a wonderful place to live in. But that's not for Everybody. Right. Kevin O' Leary's compare, you know, talking about the top 1% or maybe even a fraction within the top 1%. So it's not relatable. And so he. Honestly, I haven't seen the clip, but he's probably gets a lot of flack for that. But that's kind of what keeps Kevin o' Leary really relevant because he says these things that people go crazy over. He's really good at clips. I think that's why, like, Fox loves having him on the clip, man.

[Chris Camillo]

A lot of people actually agreed with him. Like, you went into the responses. A lot of, like, wealthy people are like, I actually 100 agree with this. I was blown away by. I thought he was gonna get a lot of hate for.

[Kevin]

I honestly thought he was gonna get hate too. But I also agreed with him. So that's interesting.

[Graham Stephan]

It's funny you're talking about Treasuries here, because I just saw for the first time since 2007, U.S. treasuries are selling at 5%. And Jack says it's a good investment. No, I have to say, to me, it seems kind of appealing to be able to lock in 30 years at a 5% return guaranteed risk free. I mean, obviously there's some interest rate risk in between there, but I think locked in 5%. And we're talking right now about the risk reward of the S&P 500. And people basically say that the risk premium that you pay for The S&P 500 is now negative.

[Kevin]

Yes.

[Graham Stephan]

When you Account for what you could get guaranteed in a Treasury.

[Kevin]

It's true. So I mean, let's break it down. The reason people say that is the s and P500 trades for like 21 times forward earnings. So if you just divide that into 100, you get like 4.8% a year. That's what you're expecting. You're expecting 4.8% per year from the S&P 500?

[Chris Camillo]

Yes.

[Kevin]

Okay. This is always what people end up doing. And then the s and P500 ends up doing 13% years, you know, or dividends reinvested even more. I think historically it's like over 9%, but lately it's been more. The problem with the treasury play, and that's why I was so quick to say no, is I understand the appeal of locking in that 5%. But the problem is duration. So if for whatever reason interest rates go up a percent, you know, because inflation lasts even longer, that 1% is going to kill like 22% of your portfolio instantly. That's what you'll see. Now if you want to hold those bonds for 30 years, you'll get 100% back. But in the meantime, one year later, interest rates are 1% higher, you're going to be 20% lower. You put a million bucks in, you're going to be looking good.

[Chris Camillo]

Huh?

[Kevin]

I only have $800,000 left now. You're still getting a 5% yield on a million, right? You're still getting that $50,000. But usually that then shakes people out and people like, I'll just tax loss harvest over here. So people just don't hold them till the end. If you really truly hold it to the end, fine. It's great for retired people.

[Graham Stephan]

For you, at what price would you Invest in a 30 year Treasury?

[Kevin]

I don't think I ever would. I really like the Warren Buffett mentality of 6 to 12 month treasuries. And the reason for that is if there's some kind of crazy weird shock, whether we have stagflation or rates go to zero, I want liquidity.

[Graham Stephan]

But there's gotta be an interest rate where you say, hey, you know what, I'm gonna go 50% in this. Because I gotta say, if right now I had the option to lock in a 12% return, yeah, I would probably just lock in a 12% return. If I, if I knew, guaranteed for 30 years, I just average that I would probably do it.

[Kevin]

It all depends on what inflation is too, Right? Because if inflation were 13%, you'd be like, hell, no. Right. I'm not going to do it.

[Graham Stephan]

Given right now, given what we know right now, of course.

[Kevin]

So I think that all comes down to people's individual opportunities too. Like if, you know you're running, if you're a real estate agent and you're making $100,000 a year, I'm thinking to myself, all right, what can we do to get your business to $300,000 a year? That boost of income is going to be so much larger on a percentage basis than worrying about that treasury bill.

[Chris Camillo]

Right.

[Kevin]

Like, what can we invest in? Let's get you some better open house signs or a nicer suit or whatever. It's not that expensive a business to run, so it depends on everyone individually, me personally. With like, what we're doing with House Hack Reinvest, I wouldn't want to lock in 12% because I think we will make more than that on an annual basis. But that comes down to everyone. That's also going to take a lot of work. So, you know, if I think we can make 25% compounded per year, I have to work my ass off to earn that. Right? And if I'm retired or I'm not running a startup, yeah, dude, 12% might look pretty appealing. So I don't blame you.

[Graham Stephan]

Are you worried about the Hentai virus?

[Kevin]

It's funny you ask me that because I, I joke that it's always called the antivirus. Yeah, Yeah. I joke that it's the, the virus that's the final boss of House Hack because it's spread by rats. And dude, we buy a lot of properties that are like infested with like hoarders and rats and cat urine. And people are getting sick from this just by like sweeping garages and like aerosolizing or whatever it's called, whatever, the urine and the feces or whatever, and that's how they're getting sick and people are dying from it. Like a lot, like 300 people have died. I think it's like a 38% death rate.

[Graham Stephan]

It's bad on your properties?

[Kevin]

No, nobody's died on my properties.

[Graham Stephan]

People are dying from it.

[Kevin]

No, it's so weird because it's like, it's literally, I'm reading about this virus and I'm studying it. I'm like, cat urine. Rat urine doesn't spread human to human. So it's like you have a really low population risk, but then if you get it, it's like bad. You have like a one in three chance of dying. But I'm like, man, this is like a hoarder's virus. If you're a hoarder, you probably have rats in your house. You probably have had a virus in your house. So now I have to underwrite my deals a little more sharply, but I'm not really broadly worried about it.

[Graham Stephan]

Why aren't you worried about. Why are some people saying that this is, like, the hidden catalyst for a recession in the economy that we're. No one's paying a lot of attention to now? I did look back at a tweet from the World Health Organization in January of 2020 that said the same thing about COVID The transmission rates are really low. It's nothing to worry about. And a month later, oh, yeah, like, oh, well, we were wrong.

[Kevin]

And yeah, it's really interesting. I mean, Covid was crazy because you just wonder, like, what money interests were at play, especially with, like, Wuhan and the development of, like, oh, yeah, let's direct evolution between these monkeys. It's crazy. That virus should have never existed. But that Covid spread person to person through us just sitting here, you know, breathing and talking. I can't spread Henta virus to you if I have it right now. Maybe I do. You know, I have to, like, urinate. You have to go touch it, you know, or like, we have to. We have to hug. Oh, no. So. So fortunately, I think just because. And I'm not a doctor, but because of the mechanisms of it, for as a stock analyst guy and a real estate guy, I'm not worried about it for the market. I probably am not going to be sweeping any rodent homes anytime soon.

[Graham Stephan]

So do you think then, given all of this, there's nothing to worry about so far with that in our economy that is it easier to build wealth right now for the average person in 2026?

[Chris Camillo]

This episode is in partnership with Airbnb. Graham and I are always traveling for the podcast. We were just in Nashville filming a few episodes there. And let me tell you, the food was incredible. I had the absolute best appetizers I've ever had. There was this dough ball and these steak skin potatoes. It was incredible. But let me ask you this. Do you ever think about your place back home when you travel, when you're gone for days or even weeks at a time, you can list your space on Airbnb so it works for you instead of just sitting empty.

[Graham Stephan]

And if you've ever considered listing your space but you weren't sure how you'd manage everything while you're away, well, that's exactly where Airbnb's co host network comes in with this. You could partner with a vetted local co host who has hosting experience and can help take care of the important details for you.

[Chris Camillo]

A co host can manage the reservations, communicate with guests, and handle the on site logistics so everything runs smoothly while you're traveling.

[Graham Stephan]

If you have upcoming travel, you probably don't think twice about your home sitting empty, but you could bring in some extra cash while you're away.

[Chris Camillo]

I kid you not. A couple years ago, before I had all of the rooms in my house filled up with roommates, I actually listed a room on Airbnb and the entire process was genuinely so easy. The extra cash was amazing and I was genuinely just so surprised at the simplicity of the entire process. If you're trying to make some extra cash on the side, I couldn't recommend Airbnb more. If you're ready to host but need a little bit of help, find a co [e-mail] host now.

[Graham Stephan]

I got to say, we recently replaced our entire invoicing system with AI and what used to take 5 hours now takes about a minute it so it's no secret that AI is a must at this point.

[Chris Camillo]

But here's the thing that most people miss. Knowing that AI is useful and actually putting it to work are two completely different things. And that's where our sponsor Zapier comes in.

[Graham Stephan]

Zapier connects tools like ChatGPT and Claude directly to the apps your team already runs, so you could automate real work. You're able to do this whether it's enriching leads, managing sales workflows, resolving IT tickets, or building out an entire backend process without touching a single line of code.

[Chris Camillo]

3.4 million companies are already using Zapier with no it bott next and no technical background required.

[Graham Stephan]

Teams have automated over 300 million AI tasks through Zapier. So if your team is still doing manually what a workflow could handle in seconds, it's time.

[Chris Camillo]

Join the 3.4 million companies already automating with Zapier and transform how you work. Get started for free at zapier.comich that's Z A P I E R.comich is

[Graham Stephan]

it easier to build wealth right now for the average person in 2026?

[Kevin]

I actually think it's going to and it's going to continue to get harder to build wealth, I think. Unfortunately, AI doesn't make people wealthy unless they're like at the top tier of being able to use AI. I don't think most people use AI to the best of their abilities. A lot of people still doubt AI. I think only 18% of companies according to Goldman Sachs right now are actually implementing AI inside their companies, which is insane. That's such a low level. But what will longer term happen I believe is corporations will take almost all of the profit from AI. Corporations, whether it's logistics, shipping, packages, customer service, you know, your T mobile, your grocery store, whatever, stocking, inventory, making products, everything can almost all be automated with software over time and artificial intelligence. And guess who cuts out, gets cut out people a lot. And I'm not saying there won't be other jobs or other opportunities, but the people who will make most of the profits will be the shareholders. Because you're gonna see companies like even Cisco, where I mean they just reported banger earnings, their stock has gone like straight vertical and they're literally reporting what I expect is gonna continue happening. Wow, we're beating earnings and we're firing more people. And it's a terrible transition because to me it says it's harder for people to build wealth. It's kind of hard to build wealth if you can't qualify for a loan or you got fired and now you gotta take a different job and you gotta go back to school or you know, go learn a new skill. That's hard, that takes years. So I think there's like, there's unfortunately this sort of like a lull that we're in right now where if people are kind of screwed and it's the corporations that are, that are winning and that's gonna lead to a rise of more AOCs and more Mondomnis in New York.

[Chris Camillo]

So if you were to give advice then for the average person out there, not what you would do, but you think would be the most productive at scale for someone to implement in their life, to become wealthy in, in today's environment, what would it be? And then also what would you specifically do? Because I'm sure what you would do would be different than the wide appeal advice that you would give.

[Kevin]

Let's say I was starting over or somebody else is listening is like how can I make a lot of money right now? I actually think the people who are going to make the most money are the people who are the best at implementing AI at things that are traditionally kind of boring. Insurance, bookkeeping, accounting. These are places that AI is going to dominate. And I'll tell you, I'll get on the phone with insurance brokers and I immediately know the people who are actually productively using AI because these people get Emails out fast, they get quotes out fast, they get policies out fast. And they know where the holes are because they're using AI and I can tell they're using AI, but they're not using it in a way where they're copy and pasting everything. They're still using their brain. And they're like, okay, yeah, yeah, this is what this person needs. All right, let's fit this puzzle. That's where all the money's gonna be. Eight out of 10 people, I would argue, are the opposite. And they're like, oh, nah, man. Nah, man. AI. You know, this one time it, it hallucinated and it told me this, AI's stupid. Those are the people that are gonna go bankrupt. Because AI is now. You know, chatbots basically are like three and a half years old already. You know, the ChatGPT moment was about a little over three years ago. Came out in November of 22, three and a half years ago. It's gotten a lot better now. I don't think it's going to exponentially keep going. We're not going to get artificial general intelligence. This is still token, like next letter prediction stuff, but basic stuff. A real estate agent, a lender, getting your loan license for when rates come down in the future, because they will come down again in the future. Bookkeeping, whatever power that with AI, even an attorney, honestly, an attorney with AI, probably the most dangerous thing that could exist right now.

[Chris Camillo]

It's so funny you say that because right before this podcast we were talking about Grant Cardone. We asked him the same question. He said the exact same thing. Shut up. Yeah, he said the exact same thing. It's AI implement. Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Yes. And he.

[Chris Camillo]

Implementation. He said, you go to businesses that don't have 24, seven sales centers and a lot of people will call after hours, but they can't get a hold of anyone. So what do they do? They call another business.

[Kevin]

Yep, exactly.

[Chris Camillo]

If they want a solution, they want it right now. They want their AC fix.

[Kevin]

You don't answer, they call someone else.

[Chris Camillo]

Exactly. So if you can get an AI call center that, I mean, realistically, if I call and it's an AI call center, as long as it's good, I don't care. Or if I get my exact.

[Kevin]

I don't even know if it's an AI, problem solved.

[Chris Camillo]

He said you go to 10 businesses, completely revolutionize their business. Take $8,000 from each business, you're making a million dollars a year. First year doing. I actually, I mean, those numbers are very ambitious, but I think that this is like the lowest lift, most scalable thing that people could be doing right now to make a ton of money.

[Kevin]

Totally. I agree.

[Graham Stephan]

That's scary that I got millions of views and people were, yeah, from pardone.

[Chris Camillo]

In the tech world, what they said like we're, we're on it.

[Kevin]

Yeah. What'd they say?

[Graham Stephan]

They said it was unrealistic. You're never going to get 10 businesses, no one's going to pay $8,000. But like if you're like an 18 year old kid who knows nothing about AI, how are you going to like

[Chris Camillo]

Grant Cardone responded and he just said have fun being poor.

[Kevin]

Well, okay, yeah, that would be his reply. Well, so the thing about Cardone is he's not really like somebody who's 18 doesn't have to make a million, they have to have a goal of making a million. Even if they make 200, they're freaking killing it. Right. That's the mentality that Cardone's trying to push with his, with his 10x, which is good. Like I, that's one thing I won't bag on him for. I'm like, damn, if you try to go 10x. Well, even if you 3x says better

[Chris Camillo]

than what you were doing before.

[Kevin]

Right. It's like shoot for the moon and even if miss, you're still around, you know, whatever. We've all heard that crap before. But. So he's not wrong with that. But, but yeah, I mean, how much. The more people are reluctant to use AI around you, when you hear your parents or doctors or people around you are reluctant to use AI, the more you should be doubling down on it. That's my take because that means there's more money to be made.

[Graham Stephan]

What sort of investing opinions do you have that you think most people would disagree with?

[Kevin]

I think this is going to be the best decade ever, 2022-2032 to buy real estate now. Everybody hates that idea. Absolutely everybody hates that idea. Which is exactly why I think it's the best idea that exists. Mostly because between 2022 and 2032 we're going to likely continue experiencing the highest interest rates that we've seen since like, you know, the 70s stagflation era, which is crazy, but it's been caused by shock after shock after shock. Whether it's the tariff shock, the Iran shock, Covid, Russia, Ukraine, whatever. These are all inflationary shocks. Okay, great. So we have rates higher for longer. Even though we are getting Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, he's not going to be able to dump rates. The best thing that he's going to do is be an anchor to prevent them from going higher. That's it. That's the best you're going to get out of Kevin Warsh for a while. Which means real estate will continue to be unpopular unless you have a lot of cash. So we're fortunate that at Hausack Reinvest we don't have any bank debt. So it's $80 million of real estate, maybe 85 if you include some of our dirt of paid off real estate. And I see that as not sort of a way of saying, oh, you know, we have all this money or whatever. It's a way of saying this is where we're actually putting money. And the reason we like doing it during this decade is because we believe that by 2032, rates will probably be back at zero. We might actually even look like Europe. It becomes socialist and then all of a sudden wages go down for the average person, productivity goes down, and interest rates end up going negative on savings. We'll probably be back to that in the2030s. And the people who have acquired the most real estate between 2022 and 2032 will have the biggest piggy bank and say, oh, I now get to refinance all of this at you thought 2.7% was great. Try 1.7% or whatever.

[Graham Stephan]

So I think it's interesting that 75% of the US right now in terms of homes that are currently for sale are unaffordable to the typical household. 97% of the US counties are now considered unaffordable by historic standards. Most Americans say now is a bad time to buy. There are 64% more sellers than buyers and negative equity is increasing for buyers who purchased in the last few years across the country. I would argue that real estate is fundamentally too expensive at today's interest rates that prices have barely budged because there's such a lag effect. And I'm taking the opposite approach of you and I'm selling my real estate. In fact, I just listed one of them for sale today hours before this podcast and I can't wait to be done with it.

[Kevin]

I'll buy it with shares of House Hack and you'll get a call option on the future real estate software and cash real estate.

[Graham Stephan]

I want, I want cash right now to be able to buy these 5% treasuries.

[Kevin]

We'll installments sell you so you don't have to pay taxes or 1031.

[Graham Stephan]

I want, I want 5% treasuries if you could just give me a 5% treasury.

[Kevin]

Our last round was a 5% round.

[Graham Stephan]

I don't want house hack equity. I want to be able to. I want the cash. I want cash to be able to buy triple leverage. Triple leverage to qqq. I just, I just think your thesis counts a whole bunch of what ifs. Now, I do think real estate is stable.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

But I look at the yield that you get on real estate, and when I say you, I don't mean you specific, I just mean in general. I see the yield on real estate and what you're getting, and I think there's no way that's worth it at today's levels. And I, and I see in a lot of properties, I say, okay, if I get this at a 30 to sometimes 40% discount, I could make that work.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

And that, and that makes sense to purchase. But unless they're willing to come down to a certain level where I feel that compensates for the higher interest rate environment that we're in, it doesn't make sense. And then if you buy it today, what I believe to be a premium, you're basically banking on all these things happening in the future to bail you out, so to speak.

[Kevin]

I totally understand where you're coming from, and I agree with you with all your statistics, I think are 100% right. I think there are a lot of portions of the country that have been overbuilt, and those are areas that are seeing a lot of negative equity. Austin, Texas was a great example of that. Parts of Florida were an example of that. I also agree with you that if you're going in financing a property, it's very challenging to make it make sense. Right now. You'd probably have to put 35% down, and a lot of people don't have that cash, you know, 35% down. We're filming this is, you know, $350,000 just to buy a home out here, which is crazy. So for most people, it doesn't make sense. And you're right, it doesn't make sense to finance. There are certain areas of the country that valuations have gone down. On top of that, your returns right now are probably in line with kind of like a commodity. It's almost like gold. I mean, gold has done really well over the last year, but traditionally longer run average. It's sort of like you're trying to protect yourself from inflation. So you're really not getting anywhere. Which is exactly why I want to be shopping, because nobody else is wanting to buy really real estate right now.

[Graham Stephan]

So here's what I'm seeing that you say cash, I would be the equivalent of a cash buyer. And what I see, even if I were to buy a property, is I look at the opportunity cost of something like a Treasury. And so even though I'm not paying the 6% mortgage rate, right. I am paying a 3 and a half to 5% tax free yield on a muni bond. And that's how I. And that's how I view it. Because right now I could get risk free 3.6% in one of the Schwab tax free muni bond funds and it'll deviate plus or minus like 5% in perpetuity, basically.

[Kevin]

Yeah. Until the cities go bankrupt.

[Graham Stephan]

If the United States goes bankrupt. You said muni funds.

[Kevin]

That's different.

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah, but not when they're. Not when they're buying a basket of funds spread across hundreds of funds. If the United States goes bankrupt, then I am screwed. But I think we all are at that point.

[Kevin]

Yes, correct. No, I agree with you. I think Treasuries are great.

[Graham Stephan]

But here's my point is that I look at that and then I say, well, I could rent basically the Same house for 30 to 40% less than it would cost to own, of course.

[Kevin]

Right.

[Graham Stephan]

And then I look at that delta, that premium that I panic. So what else could I do with that? I could invest. I could burn the money.

[Kevin]

You could throw Grant Cardone. You could join him. He burns the money. You know, you guys could. You have a little money burning party,

[Chris Camillo]

you know that you guys have the rich person left now. That's crazy. You guys both have it always.

[Graham Stephan]

I have always wanted that laugh.

[Kevin]

We just need to go.

[Chris Camillo]

All right. At what net worth does the rich person laugh start? I'm really curious.

[Kevin]

Oh, man. I don't know, man.

[Chris Camillo]

Is it 5 million, 10 million? It's just a rich person. I mean, you could never say that. Oh, well, you should have listened to yourself three cackling ten seconds ago, Graham, you have the rich person.

[Graham Stephan]

Did I not have that before?

[Chris Camillo]

I don't think so. I think it's. I think it's developed. I'm not even kidding.

[Graham Stephan]

I think I crossed a milestone recently and I. And I told Jack and a few people I crossed this milestone, and then he says, I have this laugh.

[Chris Camillo]

It could be that.

[Kevin]

Yeah, it could be.

[Chris Camillo]

It could be that. That's incredible. I mean, you guys have to. Graham did not laugh like that back in the day.

[Kevin]

Well, congratulations.

[Chris Camillo]

Congratulations.

[Kevin]

Yeah. So something to consider. The Way we look at it, which is just how we run our business, is we look at buying our properties for 20% less than what they're worth because we buy fixed droppers and that's considering the fix up cost. So for us, we're getting a discount on the property up front. Of course, you butter that out over years, you know it, yeah, it boosts your rental return. But yeah, you're right, treasury yields are attractive. But to us it's already a stabilized asset that we can do a lot with in long term, primarily refinancing, if and when, which I expect will be by 2032 rates come down and let's say by then we've built, to make math easy, a hundred million dollar portfolio, which we're already at like 85, so we're going to be at 100 million probably by the end of the year. Then we can turn around and leverage that with 30% down. All of a sudden that becomes a tool for us to get access to maybe another $200 million. And so now we have nearly a third of a billion dollar company based on assets that we can buy. If I can go buy another $200 million of real estate, especially when rates are low and I get a 20% discount on those, that's another $400 million or sorry, $40 million. So for me, I look at owning real estate as a stable inflation hedge. It's very undesirable for people to buy right now and it's a call option on the future, but it could only be in highly desirable markets. So we buy in high cost of living markets and most people especially hate that idea.

[Graham Stephan]

Well, your risk, there are two risks. One is tenant habitability lawsuits, which in California are a dime a dozen. Your other risk is all these initiatives that are going into effect right now that, that want to ban institutional buyers.

[Kevin]

Yeah, you're right.

[Graham Stephan]

And I saw the recent Trump proposal and I think it was 250 homes or more. And what they're probably going to do is they're going to go back and forth on that, they're going to argue and someone's going to push it up to 500 and it'll only impact a few specific places. And I saw even in that fine print, because I looked through it because I was really curious about this, that it doesn't apply to build to rent communities, which means that all these companies are now just going to buy a plot of land, build their own rental community with 501, and they're going to be totally fine. But I Think it's a, it's a, it's a risk that if, if housing prices remain high, it's politically popular to ban investors from buying houses.

[Kevin]

It is. So there are two things to answer there. One, it's interesting. The habitability issues have been more of a red flag in insurance policies and insurance is hard to get. Keeping insurance happy is tough. So we've actually used our software team to make habitability inspection software. So we have to deal with that crap, which we could do with the scale we have.

[Graham Stephan]

How do you do that? Because habitability is legal.

[Kevin]

It is, but you have to send people as the owner of the property to verify that these properties are habitable.

[Graham Stephan]

Okay, let's explain it for people who aren't aware. A habitability lawsuit is basically all a tenant has to say, yeah, my unit, I had a leak over there and it's not habitable. The heating isn't working, this window is broken, I got a rodent, I can't live here. Anything. Any reason? They could come up with a myriad of issues that they could make up. There was even a case recently, it was a mansion. And in one of the mansions, I'm Talking about like $100,000 a month, they claimed a habitability lawsuit because there was like, like water damage in one of the bathrooms.

[Kevin]

Oh yeah, for the whole house, of course.

[Graham Stephan]

And then they stop paying rent and then they get a lawyer who could drag it out for a year. And during that year you can't sell the property. It's untransferable. You are paying legal fees and it's basically this legalized extortion where the tenant just says, you give me this amount of money and it all goes away, or you let me live here for a year and it's going to cost you a few hundred thousand dollars. And in many cases for the tenant, the legal services are free, paid for by the mansion tax or by these taxes that landlords and real estate investors have to pay. So tenants, no risk, landlords, all the risk. Almost all these, settle immediately.

[Kevin]

This is why you're getting out of la. Mansion taxes in la. Okay, so, okay, let's talk about that bill because it is interesting and a lot of people are going to care about that. So there's a Senate version and a house version. The Senate version said if you built a rent or you bought a fixer, you were allowed to exceed the limit, but you had to sell the property after seven years. So there was now forced liquidation after seven years and you would give the tenant a 30 day option. To buy the property first, which I'm actually not really opposed to because your costs are going to be a lot lower if your tenant pays a fair market price for it. You know, just saving real estate commissions and whatever. So that's fine. The house fought this with like, I think it was somewhere around 76 members of the house signed a letter. They're like, this is a horrible idea we can't do. And what they struck was specifically the seven year sale, which is really interesting because it basically means if you built a rent or you buy a fixer upper, you can hold a property forever. So it basically changes nothing. But a lot of people always say, well Kevin, what does this mean for. For reinvest our thesis? And what we're doing is we're taking our real estate software profits from our valuation AI and from, you know, the other things that we sell and we're reinvesting them into real estate.

[Graham Stephan]

So really simple, how do you grow an AI company like that? Yeah, to like a billion dollars.

[Kevin]

Well, hopefully you sell a lot of AI software.

[Chris Camillo]

So you're very bullish on homeownership and real estate investing. Graham is very bearish on it. Who then should buy and who should rent because you agree that it cheaper to rent.

[Kevin]

So like 100%.

[Chris Camillo]

So what would make it a good decision for someone?

[Kevin]

I'm a contrarian, right? So I, I buy Nvidia when it's in the toilet and it paid me seven figures. I buy Tesla when it's in the toilet, made me seven figures. I like buying when people hate stuff like what I like right now. Software, dude, everybody hates software right now I think is, are people going to vibe code away into it? QuickBooks? No. Are people going to vibe code away body camera AI that you're getting at Axon or you know, Taser manufacturing? No, you're not going to vibe code these companies away and they're making massive software revenues. That's where people can make big money in my opinion. Great software companies or even advertising companies, another great sector Anyway, you know, I like buying when those things are in the toilet. And they're all in the toilet right now, they've all gone to crap.

[Chris Camillo]

But for real estate then who should buy and who should.

[Kevin]

People with a lot of cash, which is not very relatable. But again, if you could put 35% down or 50% down, great.

[Chris Camillo]

So most people should probably rent.

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

And then I am curious because you didn't necessarily answer the question of what your portfolio looks like. You said you have four times More cash now than you have in the past. But what about the other portfolio allocation, like how much of it is in the stock market? You did mention house hack. That's some big ambiguous. No one knows, you know, how much it is or whatever. But let's just say outside of that, yeah, stocks, real estate, etc. What's it look like?

[Kevin]

It is, I would say the vast majority of short term treasuries, some stock and the rest house hack. So that's almost like the pie that I would make.

[Chris Camillo]

And of the stock, a little bit

[Kevin]

of real estate, personal real estate.

[Chris Camillo]

Of the stock, what does that look like?

[Kevin]

Software.

[Graham Stephan]

Really?

[Kevin]

Yeah. Software sucks. Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

What's the number one holding you have right now? As the NBA season goes on, teams are gearing up for the playoffs and you don't want to miss out. And that's why we're excited to be sponsored by FanDuel and FanDuel predicts you can predict the playoff action all the way to the finals. With FanDuel predicts, all you have to do is sign up to get your $25 bonus.

[Graham Stephan]

From missed free throws to fourth quarter buzzer beaters, every play is a potential plot twist.

[Chris Camillo]

Predict the spread, total points and even game winning moments that make the playoffs. One run, rebound or shot could change absolutely everything.

[Graham Stephan]

From opening tip off to the final buzzer. You could predict each and every moment.

[Chris Camillo]

Sign up now for your $25 bonus on FanDuel Predicts offered by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a registered futures commissions merchant. 18 bonus is non withdrawable and expires 7 days after receipt trading. Derivatives involve significant risk. Suitable for all investors. Manage your activity with our consumer protection tools. Restrictions apply. See [e-mail] predict bonus hyphen offer hyphen terms. What's the number one holding you have right now?

[Kevin]

Well, it's kind of a balanced pie. Circle has done really well. You know, Applovin is another really good one. That's, that's sort of underrated. Axon and Intuit or some favorites that

[Chris Camillo]

I have Next was talking about that.

[Graham Stephan]

Applovin.

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah, there was a huge discussion. Everyone loved talking about it. Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Wow.

[Kevin]

Yeah. Yep, yep. So. So those, I mean they're the things nobody wants right now, which is fine with me. There are some software that I don't love. Like I don't really Love Adobe or ServiceNow. Like so. So, you know, I'm a little choosy.

[Graham Stephan]

You know, it's so funny, someone on Twitter said that, you know, Photoshop is screwed because no one says, that's photoshopped anymore. Everyone just says, that's AI.

[Kevin]

That's like how Xerox died. Nobody uses that phrase anymore. That's true. Like, I posted a picture of me and a horse and everybody's like, that's AI. And the irony was there was not even like a color filter on my photo. There was nothing on my photo at all. No AI. But everybody thinks it's AI.

[Graham Stephan]

This is like a humble brag. Did you see this photo?

[Chris Camillo]

I did.

[Kevin]

Oh, stop.

[Chris Camillo]

Well, I literally messaged you back.

[Kevin]

Oh, yeah, right.

[Chris Camillo]

I don't know if it was this photo, but one of the other shirtless something.

[Graham Stephan]

I think that was one of the

[Chris Camillo]

messing around all shirtless on social ones

[Graham Stephan]

that I responded to as a story. I never swipe up. And like, I think I said swiped up.

[Chris Camillo]

I sent like, yeah, he zoomed in. He like, wow, look at this.

[Graham Stephan]

I think it's one of the people who said, like, that's fake.

[Kevin]

But you're right. I mean, like, it's, it's now you're right. It's not Photoshopped. It's. That's AI. That's crazy.

[Chris Camillo]

So you have gotten into incredible shape. And I know we're not like a fitness podcast or anything, but I'm curious, are you taking Retitrue Tide?

[Kevin]

I take nothing. Nothing. So it's literally whole wheat, nuts, salmon. That's my diet.

[Graham Stephan]

But you run, you run a lot, right?

[Kevin]

Yeah. So this is actually where I give a lot of credit to AI. Cause I don't know much about fitness, but I tell it. I want Mediterranean diet, I want pure and like, I talk to it about everything. And one of the things that I've been learning is you gotta run with your heart rate low if you're also lifting weights, because if your heart rate's too high, you're burning all your glycogen stores in your muscles or whatever. It's too complicated for me. I just listen to it. And so I've actually been running more slower. I even go on walks with Lauren. So I'll go on like a five mile walk with Lauren. I'll go on a five mile run, but it's like a slow run most of the time. Sometimes like 20% of the time, I'll run fast and I'll do a four mile. I'm not that fast, but I'll do a four mile in like 31 minutes or whatever, which is an improvement for me. But it's, it's mostly. Never in my life have I done weights and I started doing weights November 30th, and it's awesome. I'm a big fan. So I. I wish I started many, many years ago, but I never had the consistency and now I go every day.

[Chris Camillo]

So two questions. Which AI do you use casually? Like if you're just having questions that you want to bounce back and forth? Because I am constantly using a bunch of different ones, I want to commit to one. Graham uses Grok. I love Grok. His favorite's Grok.

[Kevin]

Interesting.

[Chris Camillo]

I still use Chat.

[Kevin]

Interesting.

[Chris Camillo]

I still use Chat. What is like your go to AI?

[Kevin]

It depends what it is. So for me, I think the daily driver is probably Gemini. But I find that if I'm reviewing documents like legal text or I need to write an attorney letter ish or whatever, Chat is actually really good at letters. Like, I don't copy and paste. I actually tell the things like, you know, I don't want you to rewrite all my stuff. I just want little tips like change this line or this that or whatever. Right. But I talk to all of them and I kind of ingest it all into all of them. Then I close all my windows and do new chats with no memory on and I start the conversations over again. And I get such good insight from these models because they're not biased to what I've anchored them to before. So that's sort of my little AI usage tip. But Dr. Claude, I call it Gemma for Gemini and then Chat and then for the diet. Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

I'm curious. Have you noticed any other benefits outside of, like, you know, having a good physique?

[Kevin]

I've regularly had sort of this Mediterranean diet, but the one thing that I found is I have been able to cut my coffee back because I'm increasing my carbs more than ever before because I'm tracking all my calories now and I'm not getting tired like I used to. I used to have six, seven cups of coffee a day. Now I stop drinking coffee by 12pm and I might have. Usually it's like two or three cups of tea, green tea, which is like barely one cup of coffee. Maybe a cup of coffee if I didn't have all my tea. It just depends. But I stop then and that's a good it. So for me, the carb intake has been great for boosting my energy. And I was blown away because people were always like, oh, when you work out, you need more protein, more protein. But I look and I'm like averaging 200 grams of protein and all the AI are like heaven. You're actually getting too much protein. Your body can't use all this. Get more carbs, and it actually works. I'm sleeping better and more hyped up. So it's. It's pretty cool.

[Chris Camillo]

One thing that sparked some interest online, we had George Camel on the pod. George Camel thinks that we need to make $6,000 per month in order to support a family of four.

[Kevin]

Yo, that's low.

[Chris Camillo]

So in 2026, how much does someone need to retire with a family of four?

[Kevin]

8 to $10 million in assets, whether it's real estate, stocks, I think anything lower than that. If you're. You said 40 years old, you're going to run out.

[Chris Camillo]

And why 8 to 10? Like, what's the math?

[Kevin]

If the traditional financial advice is retire with 4 million bucks, what happens when we have a 50% market downturn? So I'd rather be at 8 and then be at the 4 after the market downturn.

[Graham Stephan]

It is so funny. We had.

[Chris Camillo]

I don't disagree. I do not disagree.

[Graham Stephan]

Act. Conversation. Exact. I'm just going to say it. Jack said he wouldn't be working or he would work for fun once he has 10 million.

[Chris Camillo]

Okay.

[Graham Stephan]

And I said, well, when you're at 10, you're going to want 20, because a 50% market downturn will take you down to 10.

[Kevin]

So you need a buffer. Yeah, you got to have buffer.

[Graham Stephan]

I'm like, it's. It's when you really start looking at it like, the three. Because really, I see 10 million bucks is $300,000, but the reality is that

[Chris Camillo]

99% of people don't have that amount of money, and they're getting along just fine. Well, a lot of people are getting along just fine with less than that. And so, like, why would I need to have, you know, sterling silver silverware?

[Kevin]

I don't need it.

[Chris Camillo]

I don't need to have, like, all of the nice people with 10 million

[Graham Stephan]

don't have sterling silver.

[Kevin]

So silverware.

[Chris Camillo]

Well, at least now they don't. Inflation. There's a rich lad. There it is again. There it is.

[Kevin]

It depends on your lifestyle, too. You know, some people are happy playing World of Warcraft and Rust all day long, and they don't need a lot of money. You know, you can play video games, you can, you know, crash in a small apartment, and you just. You can survive on way less money. You know, my dad doesn't survive on a lot of money. I mean, he fortunately lives rent free. I bought him a house to live in. But, you know, beyond that, he budgets to save up and he's happy. Oh, now I'm going to save this month so I can invest in this or buy this or whatever. And he seems very happy. He's got a dog, he's happy. He's got family nearby. Right. He doesn't seem like he needs more. Some people want to retire and they want to travel a bunch of. I think what a lot of people underestimate is when they retire, a main source of your sort of busyness goes away and you got to find a way to be entertained. So typically, people are like, oh, yeah, when I retire, I'm going to spend less. The reality is you're probably going to spend more. So that's why I would encourage people to try to retire with more money rather than less.

[Chris Camillo]

It's true. If you have more time, you're going to be spending more money. It's like, it's so funny because everyone thinks as you start your own business, you start making a bunch of money, then you're going to be cashing out all the time. But the reality is, if you're working 12 hours a day, you're not going to be spending a bunch of money. You have no time. You're so tired by the workday out.

[Kevin]

Yeah, yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

Which is absolutely true.

[Kevin]

Just keep reinvesting into the business.

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah. When you're bored, you tend to spend

[Kevin]

a lot of money.

[Graham Stephan]

Like, I find that the days where I'm not busy, like, nothing planned on the weekend, I start scrolling heritage auctions.

[Kevin]

There you go.

[Graham Stephan]

Start seeing what's going on. I throw a few bids. Yeah. You know, because you never know what might hit it. And then I check carsandbids.com just in case there's a good deal. And then I checked, bring a trailer. And then I browse ebay. I'm just trying to find, like deals, but every now and then I. I get a deal. Like the other day I bought these Nightmare Before Christmas animation cells from the movie, like the originals. And I was like, oh, man, I need this.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

So I bought them.

[Kevin]

That's awesome.

[Chris Camillo]

Congratulations.

[Kevin]

I had Nightmare Before Christmas bobbleheads when I was a kid, so I think it's cool. Yeah. Jackson back.

[Chris Camillo]

What I'm curious about is you said 8 to 10 million to a lot of people. That sounds ridiculous. Yeah, you would say that. That's probably that, that final tier that is worth striving to. And then after that you see a strong diminish of returns in terms of amount of effort that you put into working. And then the money that you get Back, you'd say that's about where the dollar starts to diminish in terms of value.

[Kevin]

It might even diminish before that. You know, a lot of that 8 to 10 is just hedging for marketing fluctuations. I'm a big fan of like say at a margin debt, or just debt in general. But again, it comes down to your lifestyle. I mean, I. It's when I was flying my own jet around. You know, 8 to 10 goes really fast in, in expenses. So it depends on your lifestyle. And I think 8 to 10 is a great target. And the problem is, you know, a few sentences ago, you mentioned that a lot of people are doing just fine on way less, but I think, think 70 to 80% of Americans are paycheck to paycheck. So I mean, yes. Could they be fine? Yeah, we're surviving, but are we thriving? And then the question is, where do you want to be?

[Chris Camillo]

Over 50% of the people that went to Coachella did it on credit.

[Kevin]

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Well, the buy now, pay later stuff honestly probably helped us avoid a recession. Like the amount of spending that was enabled by bnt.

[Graham Stephan]

Did it avoid or just deferred?

[Kevin]

Probably deferred delays, right?

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah, because that's going to come due at some point.

[Kevin]

100%. That'll be part of sort of that next, you know, recession. Whatever causes it, that'll be part of it. Because, I mean, what's crazy to me is there's so much talk about how AI. Everybody's spending money on AI. You know, Gemini just two days ago had to come out with bnpl, a firm in Klarna, now available. So you can pay your stupid 24amonth or whatever to Gemini.

[Graham Stephan]

But that boosts conversions. I saw like 3%.

[Kevin]

Oh, it definitely. No, yeah, it makes sense. But it does make me wonder, is it boosting conversions on that because people wouldn't get it otherwise? And then is that because they don't have the money? So that's the question.

[Chris Camillo]

It's 25amonth is.

[Kevin]

I mean, it's like another Netflix. It's another Netflix subscription, you know, so I mean, then you get Disney Plus. You know, it does all add up. YouTube Plus.

[Graham Stephan]

So what do you think is the ideal amount of money to have?

[Kevin]

I'm not a big fan of thinking retirement wise. I like to think, can you get to a lifestyle where your salary covers all of your expenses and your bills? So let's say you're an entrepreneur and you're able to make 2 or $300,000, but your entire family can live on 10 grand a month. So that's $120,000. Whatever extra you make, you should immediately pay yourself $120,000 salary to pay your bills, to cover all that net of taxes and then invest the rest. Just pretend you don't have the other growth. Like I'll put myself in these shoes. I would in the place that I feel like I'm in is whatever money I make from stocks or investments or house hack or whatever. That's all bonus. Any living expenses that we have for school, insurance, kids, seven children, cars, car insurance, whatever should be covered by my salary for running, reinvest. And it is. So for me, I'm very happy because I look at it as, okay, I don't need a single dollar more than that. And that's why I started early in the podcast by saying it's hard not to be happy right now because all bills are covered. There's nothing to worry about.

[Graham Stephan]

How much do you spend a year as a family of nine?

[Kevin]

It's hard to say because the numbers fluctuate a lot because, because all of the children just started going to school in February. So our expenses on home care has plummeted. We had nightcare specialists for like summer who almost died. And we had, you know, help 24, 7 for the first year of their lives. Those expenses were absorbent insane because we're not just paying for help, we're paying for specialized help.

[Graham Stephan]

How much, how much was that?

[Kevin]

Probably north of 800 grand just for a year, you know, in payroll expenses or contract expenses. Right. So that's a lot. Now that said, it's come down massively. And so I honestly think if we spend, you know, just for, you know, travel or giggles or whatever, the family might spend, I don't know, 8 on average a month maybe with food, it probably comes to 10, 120. And then add to that just other living expenses. We probably live on a $250,000 salary without a mortgage. Correct? No mortgage.

[Chris Camillo]

So we watched a really interesting video. We drove from Vegas to the city you live in, Ventura, Southern California, Beautiful city. And on this five hour drive, the one video that stuck out to me was this video. Ben Felix. And it's the best way to spend money. And I'm curious, what is the best way to spend money?

[Kevin]

I would say my favorite. And I've spent money in crazy ways. Whether it's in Vegas on, you know, parties or again, flying my own plane around learning how to become a pilot. All licensing or whatever business ideas. By far of all the Money. I spent my absolute favorite money to spend family vacations. That's it. Disneyland, Disney World, going to Hawaii, going to Europe. That time you spend with family, I think is everything. I still. I always, on my phone or my iPad, have a little memory screen on the top, and I always get those feeder scrolls of like, oh, remember that time you were in Rome or remember that time you were in Japan or whatever. What? Those are priceless. So big fan of spend money on experiences. Yeah. You could cut on, you know, the size of your home or the size of your car or all that crap, but experiences with family, spend it all.

[Graham Stephan]

Or the size of your jet.

[Kevin]

Yeah. Well, that's the joke about jet ownership is as soon as you buy a jet, you think you're cool until the guy with a bigger jet rolls up. I mean, I've parked next to Taylor Swift's jet, Jeff Bezos's jet, and you look like you got a really small pee pee.

[Graham Stephan]

Did you ever feel broke pulling up in your jet and seeing, like, the next guy over there?

[Kevin]

No, actually, it was. It actually robs a lot of the enthusiasm of, like, be a billionaire. Because I had the exact same experience as them, which isn't. And like, look, flying private is great, but I'm using the same bathrooms, the same, like, FBO where you get your rental car and you get your little snacks or they hand you a little glass of champagne or whatever. Unless you're a pilot, then you don't get any, obviously. Same thing. They do the same little golf cart treatment to take you from the side of your plane to your rental car they drive the car to. It's the same exact treatment. So it kind of like owning that aircraft for three years sort of burst the bubble for me. I was like, ah, all right. It's like, I don't need.

[Graham Stephan]

But you still have the motto, billionaire broke.

[Kevin]

I do. I do, yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

So it didn't quite burst the bubble.

[Kevin]

It burst the enthusiasm of what money can buy. I still have that as sort of like an entrepreneurial goal because it means that house hack was a success, Reinvest was a success. That. That number. If I have a billion dollars, the people who invested in house hack early should be very well off on their investments. Right. So that's a. That's sort of a dream and a milestone of mine, like, trying to create, like, a mini Berkshire. I know Bill Ackman wants to do that. Yeah. And I admire that. I think that's great. I'd love to do that. But it's certainly the private aviation it's great. It's awesome. But it doing it sort of bursts the bubble of how great it is.

[Graham Stephan]

So walk us through the purchase of the jet. How much was the jet? What was the payments? Like, how much did it cost to have a private jet?

[Kevin]

We bought it for 12.9. We sold it for $69,000 more than that, which was really weird because my tail number was 69 for PP from the very beginning. So it's sort of weird that it's sort of like, oh, you got $69,000 for your prime inflame. Right. Weird how that worked out. But fate loves irony, I guess. But on a monthly basis, I mean, I put 25% down on it. I wrote off all of that $12.9 million year one, which was great because I paid, like, no taxes that year. The problem is, when you go to sell it, you get to pay all that back, which I did, and I was actually really grateful to. Because when you own a plane every single month, you hate going to the mailbox because it's like, here's your $70,000 mortgage. Here's your $100,000 Ventura property tax bill you had no idea existed. Right. Here's your insurance renewal. Oh, you're gonna fly your own aircraft. That'll be $135,000 for insurance for a year. So the bills are insane, and you really have to have a lot of fu. Money to do it. I'm grateful that we had the opportunity, but it got to the point where, a. I wasn't flying a lot, and then it becomes a really expensive paperweight. Like, in order to justify it, you probably need to be flying two or three times a week. And it got to the point where the only flying I was doing was off this coast around on top of Santa Barbara, stalling the plane because it was fun. And I called it practice. That's how I knew. I'm like, this is stupid.

[Graham Stephan]

So how much was it costing every year to have a private jet?

[Kevin]

Probably three mil.

[Chris Camillo]

$3 million per year?

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

Is that expenses? Not. Not even an equity building? Yeah.

[Kevin]

Was that stressful? Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

You don't keep practicing that, because it's gonna catch, and it's. It's gonna stick. So you spent $10 million on owning a private jet for three years?

[Kevin]

Probably somewhere around. Probably somewhere around that, yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

Was it worth it?

[Kevin]

Yeah. I wouldn't change it.

[Chris Camillo]

Would you buy a private jet?

[Kevin]

Again, I should say no. I should say no. But honestly, I probably will again in the future. Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

What's the worst waste of Money. You've ever done a jet outside of a jet? Because you said nights in Vegas, you said this, you said that.

[Kevin]

I'm curious, but experiences are so worth it. You know, all of that I'd loved.

[Chris Camillo]

So what's something you did that was not worth it?

[Kevin]

But one thing is not worth it is like, getting to the point where the regulators are starting to, like, breathe down your neck. So I was trading a lot of options for a period of time and then I got these letters. They're like, you need to register as a large options trader and we're going to monitor every single one of your trades and the SEC is going to be breathing down your neck. And I'm like, h, this is not really a game I want to play with. So. And what's weird about that is soon after that, the SEC is like, oh, by the way, give us all your sh. T On house hack. We're going to do a colonoscopy on you. And they did for nine fricking months. Like, and it's not just like, oh, send us this one statement. It's send us everything. Like, they go through. They're like, just send us your general ledger, every bank statement, access to your. Your discord, your courses, your video, everything, deeds for properties, appraisals, everything. Closed it. No issues? No. When was this? That would be May 2025 through about a month ago.

[Graham Stephan]

Holy crap.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

What were they looking for?

[Kevin]

Well, I mean, think about it. YouTuber raising money on YouTube flying around in a private jet, telling people that he's not using any house hack money to pay for the jet. Let's see the proof. I give him respect, though, because in fairness, from the day I created this company, I told people, I go, look, anybody who's ever worked for me, I said, YouTuber plane raising money on the Internet. It's not if. It's when they will come and they will look at everything and it's fine. It worked out. We were prepared for it. This is why we're PCAOB audited, which, like, no private company is. But ignoring all that from a. Your question was what is like basically almost like something you would spend money on, that that was a mistake. Anything that would attract bad regulatory attention. Even if you're totally innocent, it's still a burden. It's like it feels like you're going through a lawsuit, right? Because somebody's examining everything you're doing, and I'm sure they still are. Now, in fairness, I feel fortunate because I went through a lot of securities licensing tasks you know, I kind of know a little bit about the finance world and that's sense. So I felt more prepared. But it's a lot. And I just. Anything you could do to stay out of the radar. Worth it. Remember when I ran for governor? I ran for governor and I commented on somebody's stock portfolio and then Gavin Newsom sent his California version of the SEC after me and then they ended up fining me five grand because they said you raised money making YouTube videos talking about stocks. You gave personalized financial advice on a YouTube video. We'll settle it for five grand rent. I cut the check. It wasn't worth it. But my point is, don't attract bad regulator attention. Be a good boy. Do the right thing.

[Chris Camillo]

What kind of options trading were you doing in order to get the regulator's attention?

[Kevin]

Just like massive volumes worth of like zero days.

[Graham Stephan]

So you were like, that's almost gambling to this.

[Chris Camillo]

Oh, so you were buying, well, call options that expire on the same day that you were buying them. Heck yeah.

[Kevin]

The problem is if you spend too much money, the very movement of your own money can move the market. And that's a problem. You don't want to do that. So I can like I.

[Graham Stephan]

So you were moving the market?

[Kevin]

I don't know that I was.

[Graham Stephan]

But you had an effect that caught their attention. You must have some degree of movement in the market to a small degree.

[Kevin]

Right, right. So I'm like, okay, I gotta get outta the radar. This isn't worth it.

[Chris Camillo]

Explain these options though. I'm curious, what stocks were they? Were you making money on it?

[Kevin]

Oh, yeah, yeah. So I would do things like, you know, hey, I, you know, I think Nvidia is going up. I'm gonna buy a one week call, expire next Friday or I think the queues are going to this today. And so now what I do instead, because again, my baby is house hack. The focus is on that. What I do now is I just do a report in the morning. I go, here are my ideas. Like for example, today was, hey, I think we're going to 718 to 720 on the QS, on triple Qs. And we went from 714 to 700 1950. Right. Okay, great, great call. Not every day is perfect, but I think we have a really good track record on that. But the point is I used to make all the trades and I think the concern was, were my dollar volumes influencing the actual market?

[Chris Camillo]

You wouldn't. On the Q queues, like on other lower cap stuff, there's so much volume on that.

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah. Yep.

[Chris Camillo]

So are you still doing those trades though?

[Kevin]

I don't trade anymore. Yeah, because of that. I just, I don't want the radar. I, I've had too many colonoscopies. I've had a personal colonoscopy, the SEC colonoscopy. Too much, man. Too much of a radar on me.

[Chris Camillo]

What was the largest amount of money you made in options trading and what was the largest amount of money you lost?

[Kevin]

Individual trades probably plus or minus 300 at a time, which is crazy for option swings in a day. Day?

[Chris Camillo]

Well, yeah, like zero day or weeklies.

[Kevin]

Well, so one example was. This was a. It was awesome. I made a bet on Tesla and it was a one week option and I said I'm going to hold this over the weekend. And then there was news over the weekend. I think I fluked into it. But I saw that the volatility was really, really low. So what I. And this is a lesson for anybody who trades options. I like buying options when the volatility is low, the historic volatility because they're cheaper to buy. And I like selling options when the volatility is high. It's very simple. You could look at historic volatility graphs. Not everybody's into options, but I think Alpha Query has some good options. Bloomberg Terminal, Refinitive Terminal. You know, there are plenty of tools. You could look at these, but most people don't. It's just I want this option because I feel this. So it was a low volatility entry and there was news over the weekend. And when you go from low volatility and added news, volatility skyrockets. So the options premium went through the roof and within 10 minutes of market open, I'm like, get me out. I'm taking my profits. Had I held on, I probably would have made another 30%. But that's always how it is, right? You always sell and then it goes up even more.

[Graham Stephan]

Jack has a great option strategy that all of us call kind of dumb, but Jack swears by it. And we're not going to go too deep in the weeds here because he'll talk to you for an hour about it. And I'm sick and tired of hearing about selling calls.

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah, I'm just selling covered calls on stocks that I think are either fair valued, maybe a little rich, maybe a little bit cheap, but they have the high implied volatility. And so something like Robinhood, which I think is a pretty blue chip stock, you can get 2 to 3% selling weekly covered calls.

[Kevin]

Yes.

[Chris Camillo]

And realistically, you're going to make your money back. Or if you just consider as decreasing your average cost by 3% per week. If the stock goes up, I don't really care if it gets called away from me because the only way that I see it is in terms of a weekly percent change and an annualized return is only just 52 weeklies combined. And if you can make on average 2 to 3% if everything goes according to plan. If it doesn't, it's fine, because you're still holding Robinhood and you made 2, 2 to 3% on the premium.

[Kevin]

Right.

[Chris Camillo]

Like, I don't see how you can lose except for the tax consequences. Those can be pretty brutal.

[Kevin]

Sure.

[Chris Camillo]

But I've been doing it in my Roth IRA and it's been going extremely well. Even with qq.

[Kevin]

Doing your Roth is brilliant.

[Chris Camillo]

You can still make like, like 30% annually selling dailies because they have daily options.

[Kevin]

So how.

[Graham Stephan]

So Jack's question is this.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Why isn't everyone making 90% a year selling call options?

[Chris Camillo]

That's not necessarily my.

[Graham Stephan]

But that's what he implies.

[Kevin]

Because the market makers take all the money. I hate to say that, but the. The more options volatility there is, the bigger the spreads are. The market makers never lose. I like that strategy, what you're saying. If you're like, I'm married to the stock, I want to hold it. Great. In fairness, Robinhood has also gone from $140 down to 70. I like Robinhood. I happen to actually like Vlad. And I think it. I actually think it's at a fair price. Right. It shouldn't be down this low, but a lot of finance stocks are down. So it's not just Robinhood. Like, Sofi went from like 35 bucks down to 16. Right. It's just we are in a momentum driven market right now. And what's sexy right now is hardware and nothing else. Software's in the toilet. Finance stocks are in the toilet. Real estate stocks are in the toilet. Some of the pharmaceuticals aren't even doing well right now, which is crazy. So we're momentum driven. That's why Bitcoin people are like, wow. Well, the stock market's at all time highs. Why is Bitcoin not at all time highs? Well, it's not at all time highs because that's not where the momentum is right now. The momentum is in hardware stocks. That's it. So who makes money in the meantime? Market makers. That's why all the betting markets love people betting on like the stupidest, most random crap ever because the spreads are the widest. The bigger the spread, the more money they make. They don't make a lot of money on you selling options on the queues because the spreads are really tight. They're going to make more money on Robinhood. But in fairness, a lot of your option money is probably getting paid by the YOLO weekly buyer.

[Chris Camillo]

Yes, that is exactly right. That's why you have to go to Wall street bets and find the people that are shooting that volatility up and like paying crazy rich prices. Where if you're getting 3% on a blue chip stock, like the, the thing is, even if the stock goes down, it doesn't matter because it's such a large percentage relative to the, the share of the, the stock that like I don't understand how you can go wrong.

[Graham Stephan]

Jack doesn't understand that he could have his shares called away. The stock pops 15% and then he's saying, well, I'll buy back in. And then he buys back in and the stock drops 15%.

[Chris Camillo]

But is that going to happen every single week?

[Graham Stephan]

It's going to happen. I think you'll average probably less than if you had just held the stock and done nothing thing.

[Chris Camillo]

I think that is possible, but this is more predictable.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I mean it's, it's. How much work do you want to put into it too?

[Chris Camillo]

For me, all I do like, like the top of the week Monday, I just sell a call on Robinhood and I'm doing a test right now because we collaborated with the money guys.

[Kevin]

Nice.

[Chris Camillo]

And we went back and forth on this strategy and I was like, guys, I've never done it like weekly because it's just never been worth my time. And everyone tells me it's a dumb idea. So I just believe what they say. And so I'm like, I'm not going to do it. But now because we're all in a group chat, I can add you to the group chat chat. And I send my reports every week and I will say, and guess who's up 3% in one week.

[Kevin]

What's interesting is there are a lot of hedge funds and financial advisors who know that there are so many people who are buying these short term options that you can make some spread. So yeah, you're, you are picking up onto something that institutions love.

[Chris Camillo]

You have to go into the stocks that have the high volatility, the stocks that everyone's super hyped about. Because, because realistically, if you try to sell calls on something with a Bunch of volume. Like, you want to sell calls on Apple. Like, no one is going out there buying weekly calls on Apple because they think it's going to pop.

[Graham Stephan]

Right?

[Chris Camillo]

Right. Unless if maybe they're doing a new drop or release. But on something like Robinhood that dropped as much as it did, everyone is just waiting for it to completely skyrocket, which, even if it does and I get the bag called away, it doesn't matter.

[Kevin]

The bag.

[Chris Camillo]

Oh, well, to me, the way I see it doesn't matter because I still made my 3%.

[Kevin]

That's fair.

[Chris Camillo]

So, yeah, I agree with you. If you go to the ones where everyone's chasing the money, then it's, it's, it's funny.

[Kevin]

And that's why so much of this makes me think, like, the Millennial Money Podcast would could be, like, all over this. Right. The good old days, if you will. But it's, it's so funny because I feel like a lot of us, I guess I can't speak for everybody, but it certainly seems like you guys and, and me to some extent here feel like, hey, hey, like, there's so much to talk about in finance, but we are also so removed from that daily struggle of, you know, filling up the tank or your credit card bills or, you know, wanting to get ahead and get a home or you're having a baby, and it's like, crap, these are a lot of expenses. So it's fun to talk about all these things. But I, I go back to, like, the early part of the pod where we're like, man, how does this affect, like, the consumer, that regular person? And it's, I think every single year from now, over the next 10 years, it's just going to get harder and harder and harder. So if there's any motivation to leave from all of this, I would say the sooner you can grind and make more money now, the better, because it's just going to keep getting harder.

[Chris Camillo]

So if you're to give one piece of wisdom off of that, what would it be to the viewer? So grinding is very, like, it's hard to quantify.

[Kevin]

It is because you got to grind on the right thing. So, you know, like, I always make the analogy, you can only be so good of a forklift driver, and you could go, you know, do laps in the forklift all over, over and over and over again. But, you know, your money is going to be capped to some extent. The same is true of being a pilot. You know, how many times can I land this plane? And how smooth can I make that landing, you're not going to get paid anymore if you butter the landing, right? So it's got to be where you're. You're able to make more money. And usually that's entrepreneurship. There are, though, people who can work for startups or larger corporations that have growth. You know, a company that's growing, great place to work. You don't have to be on your own. A place you can clock in at 8 and clock out at 5 is great, especially if you're at a growing company, because eventually you'll probably get stock options and you'll be able to grow with that company. So I'm a big fan of being either at a company that's growing or finding a vertical that you could really use your energy with AI and accelerate. Like bookkeeping, we said, accounting, whatever, lending.

[Graham Stephan]

You know what Chris Camillo said? He said his prediction was that podcasters over the next 10 years are going to be the next, like, professional athlete.

[Kevin]

That's interesting. The New York Times just had a piece yesterday about how YouTube is so desperate to, like, get even more podcasts onto the platform. They're going to celebrities, they're pre setting up sponsors, and they're like, hey, do a podcast, host it on YouTube. We'll get it all set up for you. We'll even place your first sponsors so that, that very first episode you make, you already know you're going to get paid X dollars by this.

[Graham Stephan]

I think it's a terrible idea.

[Chris Camillo]

I actually, I actually think it's a great idea.

[Graham Stephan]

I think it's a terrible. No, no. Just because they're famous, they could attract initial attention. It happens all the time. They start a podcast, they get a few episodes that hit, and then it's boring as hell. You have to be.

[Chris Camillo]

You have to pick the right guy. You pick a Matthew McConaughey. He's gonna have a banger podcast.

[Graham Stephan]

He doesn't need to do a podcast. You have to find someone hungry enough and interested enough to do podcasts. And in the game of the algorithm,

[Chris Camillo]

I will say, like Leon James, his podcast does incredibly well. Like, you have other sports people that are not podcasters. Like, you want to tune in to the, to the podcast where they're talking about, you know, game seven finals and, and, and it's an ex NBA player, and they're being, they're able to cover it. Like, that's, that's. You can pick the right person if you find the right talent. I do think that there's still like a ton of demand, even like the Rewatch podcast. Like the listen.

[Graham Stephan]

I think there's a lot of demand for podcasts. My, My thing is that if you're bringing in a celebrity is the poll. I don't see that at all. I don't get it. I. I think YouTube channels and media are so fickle that it's like a needle in a haystack. And like, hey, you maybe do a hundred of these and a few of them stick. And it's just a numbers game.

[Kevin]

I mean, I agree.

[Chris Camillo]

You have to be entertaining.

[Kevin]

There are some podcasts that are popping up now that are like, covert, big mainstream media. Like, there are some even in the finance space. And they're getting like a lot of these podcast interviews or whatever with people from finance. And you dig into it a little bit and they literally work for cnbc, you know, or Bloomberg. And they don't advertise that they do. So they come across as like, oh, yeah, I'm just so excited.

[Graham Stephan]

You know what's so funny, man? There's a big company that I did a. Like a free consulting thing with with, and I was telling them their social media sucked. And my advice to them was start a podcast, do a podcast. You have access to, like, all these people, all these, like, the top talent. Like, this would be the best use of it. They didn't listen to me. And I'm. I'm honestly, like, I'm looking at that and think you're an idiot for not listening to me. But I think for big businesses out there, that's the best way to do it.

[Kevin]

Oh, totally.

[Chris Camillo]

I don't know why Robin Hood does not just, like, acquire us, dude. Or like Schwab. Like, you know, it's. It's so incredibly. If we just had the Robin Hood things right here year, and there was a Robin Hood segment on every podcast where I could show my Robin Hood collapsing portfolio if I could just show that every episode.

[Graham Stephan]

Literally buying call options every week, zero day. No, no, because you get these. What is it? These big, like. Like BlackRock is buying YouTube channels. What is this? What are we called? Like, institutional buyers are coming and buying YouTube channels.

[Kevin]

Oh, I didn't know that. It's massive because I know Robinhood started their own podcast and they look at, like, stock charts and stuff.

[Graham Stephan]

There's this video that went viral that was like, your favorite YouTube channel is corporate owned.

[Kevin]

Oh.

[Graham Stephan]

And they listed out a lot of YouTube channels that actually had corporate backing that you would never know. And believe it or not, because they have ownership, you don't have to disclose that. Like, this is an advertised product.

[Kevin]

Wow.

[Graham Stephan]

And so this YouTube video explained it, and I'll just. I'll link to. You'll. You'll see it here on screen as we're talking about.

[Kevin]

I want to check that out.

[Graham Stephan]

That's interesting. But I am astounded that we haven't gotten any offers. And I'm thinking, like, we are the best acquisition for the. For the right company.

[Kevin]

You're like putting a hot air balloon out there. Like, hey, guys, we're for sale.

[Chris Camillo]

Okay.

[Graham Stephan]

Like, obviously, we wouldn't sell the. Like, just Joe Schmo.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

But, like, listen, if the numbers make sense, like, I got house hack shares.

[Chris Camillo]

If the. Yeah, if the numbers made sense, we wouldn't just go to anybody. But, you know, China has a big budget.

[Kevin]

Xi Jinping comes over with his yen.

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah. I have no doubt complimenting his haircut.

[Graham Stephan]

Hilarious. To talk about the latest, like, Chinese electric car.

[Chris Camillo]

It's all just, like, dubbed in.

[Kevin]

Oh, my yen yuan.

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Anyway. Oh, dude, that would be hilarious. Yeah, I. I told Jack, but I don't think I've ever talked about this before. 2021, I got an offer for $2.2 million to buy 10 to my YouTube channel. Oh, really? Yeah.

[Kevin]

Oh, wow.

[Graham Stephan]

They were reaching out to all the finance channels at the time, and what they wanted to do was, is ipo. They wanted to acquire, like, a few dozen finance channels specifically, and then IPO it. And then people could invest in the stock, which is backed by your YouTube channel, and a portion of your earnings funnel into this. And I said no to it. And the reason why is because I said it's such a terrible investment to pay this multiple that they were offering me. I'm like, you're never going to make your money back. And then what's inevitably going to happen? The stock's gonna fall.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

And if my name is attached on it, it falls.

[Kevin]

Yes.

[Chris Camillo]

There it goes.

[Graham Stephan]

And it's not worth it because it's a bad. And what's funny is that you. I was talking to these guys in their 50s and 60s who are, like, corporate dudes, and I'm telling them it's a terrible idea. Like, your offer is more than. It's just a really bad idea. You're never gonna make their money ever. And what's funny is that I know a few of the channels that sold to them.

[Kevin]

Oh, interesting.

[Graham Stephan]

And they are in the toilet.

[Kevin]

Really?

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah. Because they were on the run up from, like, 2020, 2021. And I'm like, dude, I'd never seen these Views before. I've never seen this ad revenue before.

[Kevin]

That was crazy.

[Graham Stephan]

It makes no sense at all. And this is not going to continue. And those channels that did it, their views dropped probably 90 plus percent. And this, this, this stock is, is in the toilet.

[Kevin]

Sure. Oh, so it actually did go public. It did, yeah. It's funny. Or maybe not funny, but there are so many CEOs that I'll see that go on. Essentially CNBC and Bloomberg and they complain about how the stock market is treating their stock because they see it as a reflection on them and the quality of the business. And it kind of makes sense why a lot of companies are staying private longer. I think you've made videos on this before. Maybe not, I don't know. But there's this idea that companies have stayed private a lot longer because why do you want to deal with being in the regulator's eyes? You've got a momentum driven stock market that's going up and down on a daily basis and the stock's down 5%. You're getting blown up with emails going, what'd you guys do wrong? And it's like, bro, we're doing the same thing every day. Like the stock market's manic. I honestly wonder if Warren Buffett would go public in this kind of environment that we're in today. I think it's an interesting thing to speculate about. About, because I don't think he would.

[Graham Stephan]

I am going to give you a great idea for a podcast and anyone could steal this.

[Chris Camillo]

I told you, Jack, I.

[Graham Stephan]

This is a banger idea. I started seeing these clips on Instagram of a father just talking to his toddler who's like 3 years old as a podcast.

[Kevin]

Wow.

[Graham Stephan]

And you see the toddler in the chair with the big mic and he's like, so what do you do today? Oh, I want the, this thing. And then I got Mac and cheese. He's like, what? Did you like them? Yeah, I love the Mac and cheese.

[Kevin]

Could we get ice cream?

[Graham Stephan]

And the guy's like, well, a little later we could get okay. Because I really like ice cream. The vanilla flavor and it's like so cute. How could you not watch that? And just. It uplifts your day because it's like you're scrolling and you're seeing this disgusting vinyl stuff in your feed and negativity that's negative. And then you scroll and you see just a kid just eating ice cream and having a great time. Like that's a great idea.

[Chris Camillo]

Let me just say he has never had urgency to Have a child. And then he said this podcast and he said you could probably make like 30k a month. And like, and I'm like, are you saying you now want to have a child knowing you could make a podcast? Like, you're gonna get the wrong 30k a month? He's like, well, you know, easy.

[Graham Stephan]

I'm like, dude, it would be easy, but how wholesome is that? It's just a bit. Because listen, most parents, dude, for 30k

[Chris Camillo]

a month, freaking give me a shave my head bald, give me a big lollipop, and I'll be the baby. Like, we could do that.

[Graham Stephan]

You and me, man, I would almost pay 30k to be able to do

[Chris Camillo]

that big swirly lollipop. Yeah, dude, come in.

[Graham Stephan]

You're. You're in like a diaper.

[Chris Camillo]

Yeah, doesn't matter to me.

[Kevin]

One thing that I found for me is. Or, or my channel is we've really, I try to niche it down, really to a finance person, it's way more even niche than I think you, you do. Like, you do great. But like, like some of my stuff is just really niche into this finance person. And I think it's either an entrepreneur who wants to build wealth or maybe, I mean, my average ages are like 25 to 45. That's sort of the big curve right there. I don't get a lot of high school or younger than that. I actually have more people that are seniors than are under 25. And for me, I think it's helped us build house Hack, you know, because I look at it that when we first raised Money, we raised 25 million and we've had more raises since then. The last fundraise we did, we raised $37 million. And so what's interesting is even though I might get fewer views per video, we've raised more money than ever before. And so I think it's because of niching down and providing more value on finance. And so if there's. There's any reason I wouldn't do a podcast with Jack, it'd probably be that long winded response to that, but that's fair. I do actually think, you know, like a family, an occasional family vlog video would be fun. I don't know if anybody would watch. I also like to make it.

[Graham Stephan]

What would do well is a family dinner podcast.

[Kevin]

Oh, interesting.

[Graham Stephan]

Just a family table. Talking about, like, what did you do today? Clean the floors? I did this. What did you do? Oh, work was kind of tough. You know, Joe, who was over there, kind of like fumbled a little bit we lost a client this week. Yeah, it's okay. And like, the kids, like, I had my math that said I would love to just be a fly on the wall.

[Kevin]

I wish I could have a functional family dinner without kids throwing food at each other or somebody screaming retention spike right there. Somebody crying, right. Like, it's like. Yeah, true. I mean, there'd be plenty of those, but at least with seven, it seems like there's always somebody pissed off. They all sleep well, but, boy, we did not invest enough money into actually getting them to sit at a table. Yeah, it's tough. You'll see one day. How many children are you gonna have?

[Chris Camillo]

I'd say two to four.

[Kevin]

And what about you?

[Graham Stephan]

Two?

[Kevin]

Two, probably. Yeah. Yeah. Trying to get to 12.

[Graham Stephan]

You. Really?

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Why?

[Kevin]

I want double digits, and I don't want it to be 10, and I don't want it to be odd, but 17, yes, it can be. But what.

[Graham Stephan]

What joy do you get in having 12 kids versus 7?

[Kevin]

They're all different personalities. It's the weirdest thing. I thought they would all be clones. I honestly thought this. That. Oh, five children all at the same time. They're all going to be the same. Every single one of these kids. Even the identical twins, totally different personalities. Every single one of them. Jack, Max. Totally different personalities. The five babies, totally different personalities. I had a dad or a moment today. I got our. One of Our first of the. The bunch. Twin. One of the first twins got her to go poo in the potty. That's. That's a. That's a big milestone to do that. I got her do it. Well, I saw her kind of, like grabbing her leg pants, and I'm like, do you have to go to the bathroom? She's like, yes, potty. And so I took her over to her little potty and her sisters come running in. Everybody's looking, and I'm like, no, wait. Do you really have to go? She. Shoes off, dad. Shoes off. I go. Okay, Other girls out.

[Chris Camillo]

One of those ones.

[Kevin]

It took her. Yeah. Took her pants off, gave her her privacy, put her down, walked out, came back, giant poop. Greatest dad moment ever. Shin flush. But mom didn't get it.

[Chris Camillo]

It.

[Kevin]

Nannies didn't get it. Dad got it.

[Chris Camillo]

Wow. How did that feel?

[Kevin]

Oh, like I've been. I think I've probably told Lauren like 20 times today, and she's like, I. I know.

[Chris Camillo]

So how do you not look forward to that? It's. It's just.

[Graham Stephan]

It's just fecal matter. I don't know. Man, it's just like it's a, it's a.

[Kevin]

Could have hentavirus.

[Graham Stephan]

That's where it all started, man. It's just like it's, it's a, a bodily movement. It's just like. I don't.

[Chris Camillo]

But for some that's a big deal.

[Graham Stephan]

But maybe it's different when it's your own. Like, I hear that. I'm like, it's a, it's a first, though.

[Chris Camillo]

It was her first time in a poil. In a toilet.

[Graham Stephan]

In a toilet.

[Chris Camillo]

It's late.

[Kevin]

Do you know we go through about a thousand diapers a month? Yeah.

[Chris Camillo]

That's a Mediterranean diaper.

[Graham Stephan]

Isn't Gavin Newsom giving you some diapers?

[Kevin]

That's true. Yeah. Baby born. More free stuff. Good. Gas might be 750 and houses might be unaffordable, but you'll get free diapers and we'll tax you 55%. Welcome to California.

[Graham Stephan]

Technically, structure your income under the poverty limit to then be able to get like all the free subsidies.

[Kevin]

Yeah, sure. You could also take write offs. Yeah. Like, I mean, if, if you buy equipment. Right. And depreciate it, whether it's a plane or whatever. Yeah. You could, you could write your income down to zero, qualify for medical, a cow. I don't structure my income that way, but I think there are a lot of handouts and it's going to get worse.

[Graham Stephan]

Are you doing the Trump account?

[Kevin]

Well, my children were born after the Trump accounts.

[Graham Stephan]

I thought you could.

[Kevin]

Can you enroll?

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah, I would do it.

[Kevin]

Sure. Because I do 529 for them. I pay the children to hold coupon codes, so that way they earn a salary and they have earned income and then they can invest in the Roth. So I'm a big fan of that. I'd consider the Trump account. I haven't really looked into that yet. I thought it was just they had

[Graham Stephan]

to be born, so I thought I could be incorrect.

[Kevin]

I'll look it up.

[Graham Stephan]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Great thing to look up. But it's $5,000 total across the kids. Big fan. I think it's great. Any of Those tax advantages HSAs I'm a big fan of. Use them. So. Yeah. But more children.

[Chris Camillo]

All right, Kevin, So thank you so much for your time. Thank you for the flexibility. This is pretty last minute. We have one final question. If you were to leave the viewers with one piece of advice, what would it be?

[Kevin]

Don't ever skimp on experiences. Spend on experiences with the people you love. And the second thing is, if you're jaded about AI know that 80 to 90% of other people are as well. You gotta be part of that 10 to 20% that's gonna take you to the next level in whatever you do. And if you can do that, no matter what your job is, you will always get a job at any corporation. You'll be the last to get laid. On. Off.

[Chris Camillo]

What's your advice?

[Graham Stephan]

I didn't think you're asking me the question.

[Chris Camillo]

That's what makes it fun. Yeah, yeah. First thing, go ahead.

[Graham Stephan]

First thing is just always work more. But like, I don't know if that's. I'm always just like just double down. Just whatever you're doing is work, work more. It's.

[Kevin]

It's weird. I, I have honestly, I feel like I've been working fewer hours and getting more done. And I'm not just blaming AI, but I've had time to go on runs and walks and go to the gym. You know, I cook bread now. I have a little garden. I have a little moss garden. I bought a gong. I play my gong, you know.

[Graham Stephan]

Okay, well here, here's. I'm gonna dive deeper than I know I've had time to think. I think most people only use a small fraction of what they are capable of and that if you had a. To their head and they say you have to do this or it's over, they'll do it. So they have what it takes to do it. But most people don't operate like that and they'll not utilize everything they could. And so I think if you just approach the day as though you have to do it, otherwise lights out, you'll be able to accomplish so much in the same amount of hours that you wouldn't otherwise have done.

[Kevin]

I agree with that. I mean, Jensen just did an interview like 10 days ago, CEO of Nvidia. He said you're underestimating your potential. That was sort of his walk away line. And it's essentially the same thing you said, just in a different manner, which is you don't even realize that you can do so much more. I do this little trick where there are many times I don't want to work out or I don't want to do a work project, or I don't want to send an email or I don't want to write the letter. And so I call it micro grind. And I try to convince myself like, okay, I have those feelings coming in that I don't want to do this. Just get it done. Don't be a little b. Like Grant Cardone says Don't be a little b, just get it done. And then I make this little challenge out of it. Like, well, if I micro grind it and I just get it done really quick, then it's done and I get it done and it's great. It actually gives me more free time. So I agree with you. You know, you could definitely double down and get surprisingly a lot more done than you think in a day.

[Graham Stephan]

Now, what's yours?

[Chris Camillo]

One of the most important predictors of success is your response to failure. And I think that if you can see failure as an opportunity to learn and to pivot and do things differently, then you win from your successes because you won. Like, there's a yield, there's a reward there. And then from your failures, all it is is more information. Yeah, right. Like the thing that will cause you to lose is inaction, not action. And if you could see a failure as an opportunity to think, okay, what did I learn from this? And I'm going to try something a little bit differently this time. You're coming in with more of an educated perspective, a more experience based perspective to increase your likelihood of success. And you feel right there, that's another opportunity. So it's like how much consistency and how much I would say devotion do you have to the craft?

[Kevin]

I think that's so amazing. I would actually say the best people to hire, if you're at a company or your manager's thinking about who to hire, who to promote. Promote. The best person to hire, the best person to promote is somebody who has had a lot of failures themselves because they have the experience and they know how not to fail.

[Chris Camillo]

And you know they're not going to give up if they fail.

[Kevin]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Graham Stephan]

Well, thank you guys so much for watching. And by the way, if you want the extended version of this podcast, because we had to cut a lot for retention purposes because we know a lot of people might not be interested in some of the weeds and the nitty gritty. Feel free to join as a channel member and you're going to get the extended cut. Got no ads, no sponsors, and you get early access to all of our future episodes as well. So feel free to join. Really appreciate it. And I'm personally responding to all the

[Chris Camillo]

comments on members that would be absolutely incredible. All of your stuff is linked down below. Kevin, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. And lastly, we have a new business that we're working on and if you want to be a beta tester of it, it has to do with credit cards. You'll get some money back you if you if you're nerding out about like sign up bonuses, getting the most amount of money that you can, squeezing every drop that you can out of the cards sign up. The link is also down below in the description. You will not regret it.

[Graham Stephan]

All you have to do is go to Extra Dollar Com Extra Dollar com to sign up.

[Chris Camillo]

Bought the domain $7,000.

[Graham Stephan]

I think it's 5,000.

[Chris Camillo]

$5,000 guys. Thank you so much.

[Graham Stephan]

Until next time T.