
Loading summary
Commercial Narrator
Insurance isn't one size fits all, and shopping for it shouldn't feel like squeezing into something that just doesn't fit. That's why drivers have enjoyed Progressive's Name youe Price Tool for years. With the Name youe Price Tool, you tell them what you want to pay and they show you options that fit your budget enough. Hunting for discounts, trying to calculate rates, and tinkering with coverages. Maybe you're picking out your very first policy, or maybe you're just looking for something that works better for you and your family. Either way, they make it simple to see your options. No guesswork, no surprises. Ready to see how easy and fun shopping for car insurance can be? Visit progressive.com and give the name your price tool a try. Take the stress out of shopping and find coverage that fits your life on your terms. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match Limited by state law,
Michael Zuber
2026 is a horrible year for most people in real estate buyers, sellers. In fact, I think the only person that wins in 2026 are real estate. It's so much harder than stocks. The stock market, every second of the day you know what it's worth. Real estate is inefficient. You can, if you work long enough and you make enough offers, you can make hundreds of thousands of dollars the day you close. Most people won't do that.
Graham Stephan
What is your prediction then for home prices over the next five to 10 years?
Commercial Narrator
President Donald Trump posted. The American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people.
Michael Zuber
My guess is it will take between eight and 10 years to get back to normal.
Graham Stephan
Do you think people are better off buying a house today than renting?
Michael Zuber
Hey everybody. You don't have to buy a home. You don't have to. It's not written down anywhere in law. But if you want to get wealthy, you have to own assets and the best way to do that is to find a seller who is motivated.
Jack Kramer
So what's the secret to financial independence then?
Michael Zuber
You know what the three step process to get wealthy is? It's been a hundred years. This has been true. You want it?
Jack Kramer
Thank you so much for coming on the Iced Coffee Hour.
Michael Zuber
I appreciate the opportunity. You guys are great.
Jack Kramer
So how much in real estate do you have?
Michael Zuber
We have about 167 units because we just sold a duplex last week and about 25 million in total value.
Jack Kramer
And how much debt do you have?
Michael Zuber
Just over 9 million.
Jack Kramer
And how much do you get in cash flow each month?
Michael Zuber
The worst month we had last year was $40,000 our average is about 52 and the best month was 60. But the key is I live on 12.
Graham Stephan
And this is all your money, correct?
Michael Zuber
It's all my money. No partnerships. I shouldn't say all my money. My wife's money as well. Let's be very clear, Olivia is a big part of this journey. But yeah, we don't take outside capital, never have. We've taken on some debt partners, but just like banks. But I don't want that stress, frankly.
Graham Stephan
And why should people listen to you specifically?
Michael Zuber
Well, I'm not here trying to sell anything. Right. I'm a guy that's been looking at real estate for 30 years. I'm an economist and my goal in life is to simply build something that outlives me by 50 years. That's what's going to be success for me. I'm not here trying to be a billionaire. I'm not even here trying to grow my portfolio anymore. I live on 12 and make 50. I'm good. We just did three weeks in Australia, came back for a week, did a week in Canada. My life is good. I'm not trying to be this big guru. I'm just trying to look at the news. I've been doing it every day since college and I'm trying to help people. That's all I'm trying to do.
Jack Kramer
Yeah.
Graham Stephan
I have to say, when we were planning for this podcast, you sent me your research, this incredible spreadsheet. I'm going to put it up on the screen here for everyone to see. The level of detail that you put into that, to me is incredible. So what is that telling you about the housing market?
Michael Zuber
Well, I think it's important to understand why I created it and why I give it away. I created it because on August 26, 2022, Jerome Powell Jackson Hole threw away his prepared speech, which is not normal for a high ranking Fed member. And he basically went on a 6 minute and 12 second rant. That pain is coming. And as somebody who had suffered a huge loss of 80% of his wealth, I didn't want to do that again. I'm 50 freaking years old. I don't want to start over. So I asked myself, what's going to happen to real estate if interest rates go up? What's going to happen to the stock market? What's going to happen to commercial real estate? What's going to happen to new builders? These are all the questions I had because I was, A, trying to avoid pain, but B, I'm a greedy son of a gun. If there's an easy way to make money. I want that answer. So I built that spreadsheet. At the time it was called the 52 year spreadsheet because I went back to 1970 and I collected, I don't know what it is, 34 different metrics. All of it is sourced. So you have the spreadsheet, there's a tab that says sources Fed, Fed this, Fed that. So it's all sourced so you could build the spreadsheet. But I wanted to ask myself questions. What happens when rates go up? What happens when rates go up a lot? Have we ever done that before? If we had, what broke? Because something's going to break. So that's why I did that spreadsheet and it helped me out.
Jack Kramer
What were your findings in this research?
Michael Zuber
There were so many shocking findings and again, I didn't have the answer. So the first thing I found was we have actually seen interest rates go up 700 basis points in a four year period. That shocked me. I did not realize that we went from 1978, we were 9.6, we went to 16.6 by 1982, that's 700 basis points. The first thing to remember is everybody said that every 1% increase in interest rate prices were supposed to fall 10%. And that frightened me. Right? I'm a guy with a whole, you know, probably $20 million in real estate at the time. And if you're telling me my real estate is going to fall 20, 30, 40%, I don't want to be there. I saw the GFC. I didn't want that to happen again. So, you know, I had to go figure out what actually happened the last time we did that.
Jack Kramer
So what happened and how does this apply to like the average viewer? Because the average viewer doesn't have $20 million in real estate. Maybe they want to get started in real estate. Maybe they just have a couple of units. What does this mean for them? And what did you find out exactly?
Michael Zuber
Yeah, so what I found out. This is exactly why I did and this is why I give it away. I don't charge for it or anything like that because I'm just trying to help people. That's all I'm trying to do. So the first thing I found out was all of these experts and I'll use quotes because they were wrong. Prices did not fall 70% from 1978-82. Interest rates went up 7% and they were supposed to fall. Now you could argue, hey, okay, they didn't fall 70%. Maybe they fell 20 or 30 they didn't fall at all, guys. They went up. Real estate went up. Real estate went up even in 1981, which is the worst affordability ever. What did happen and what allowed me to make a great call back in 2022 was transactions crashed. 50% transaction crashed for new homes, for existing homes. That is a problem and that's the affordability problem. Why are we not selling more homes today? Why do 72% of people say it's not a good time to buy? It's affordability. But again, the lack of affordability does not mean prices fall, it means transactions fall.
Jack Kramer
Why do you think prices don't fall when affordability goes down?
Michael Zuber
Because you don't have a motivated seller and you need waves of motivated seller. Think about today. You guys own some real estate. You know, lots of people that own real estate, most of them I'm guessing, have interest rates below 4 and probably even below 3%. Do you know what that means? That means they took their second largest expense ex taxes, second largest expense ex taxes and fixed it for 30 years. They are now living a better life because their fixed shelter expense is below rent and below all these other. So they have more money to deploy on Teslas and Rolex watches and Gucci bags. That's just reality is they have more money to spend because their, their shelter is fixed. So they're not motivated to sell.
Graham Stephan
So who's getting screwed right now? Because what about the people who bought the last two to three years where they're at 5%, five and a half, 6%.
Michael Zuber
So there are certainly some markets, Austin Texas being one, Port Louis and Florida being another, that certainly got over their skis and have fallen 20%. But these are not national phenomenons. The key to real estate is you got to hold it for a decade, right? If you're coming into the game with a one or two year hold period, just rent transaction cost alone is going to eat you alive. So again, if you came into this because you thought you were going to be a quick flipper or something of that you have, you're misguided, right? Real estate in ownership, you have to think in decades, in my opinion.
Graham Stephan
What do you think of the 18 year cycle that I've seen in real estate? I see a lot of these Twitter posts that go into like every 18 years there's a cycle and the 18 years for the next 18 years started like a year or two ago.
Michael Zuber
So again, this spreadsheet that you've shared on the screen goes back to 1970. So I don't know what? That is three 18 year cycles. It's not there. Right. We had one GFC where we, where prices fell 4%. We had one year in the 80s where it fell below 1%. But that's it, it's just not there. It's just somebody telling a story.
Graham Stephan
So if prices are not going to be falling, is this just the new normal? That housing is going to be unaffordable for most people?
Michael Zuber
I don't think so. Right. So when I put that spreadsheet together, it said prices don't fall, but transactions do. But it also told you, if you look at it, it told you a timeline to recover. It's just not fast. In 1978 we did 4 million 3.9 something. By 1982 we did sub 2 million. That's a 50% crash, guys. We did not get back to 3.9 million until 1996. I'll say that again. From 1978 to 1996 it took to recover, to do the same level of transactions. We must have had 15 million more people in the country. We must have had 5 million more housing units. But it's just not a quick recovery. Why? Because wages, this is all about wages. Wages grow 4, 4.5% a year and it's going to take 8 to 10 years for that to bring back some normalcy.
Graham Stephan
Why do transactions matter though? Why is it not just what the price is?
Michael Zuber
Transactions matter because we are an economy. Real estate, the collective unit is about 12 to 13% of the economy. Painting, Lowe's, Home Depot, just all the things that go into real estate. If you are at 50% of production, you have 12% of the economy being pulled back. That's why we need to see this get incrementally better going forward. And I think 26 was going to be incrementally better by 8 to 10%. Then we have this Iran war and rates are going up. So maybe not. But having real estate at 50% of normal capacity is horrible for the US economy.
Jack Kramer
So in terms of the average viewer watching this, then like I said, maybe they have a couple rental units, maybe they don't have any real estate at all, but they want to start owning real estate. Maybe they shouldn't own real estate. What would you do if you were 20 years old, making the average income, living in the average place? What is your advice to these people?
Michael Zuber
So 2026 is a horrible year for most people in real estate. Buyers, sellers. In fact, I think the only person that wins in 2026 are investors. Why? Because investors can be Patient. Write disrespectful offers. Try creative financing. They got to find that one seller. Right. Home buyers generally don't do that. Right. So again, unless you're willing to write 100 offers, which I have done in past years, you're willing to follow up three or four times to get that one seller who has to sell. Because in the game of real estate, you make your money when you buy. You make your money when you buy. You don't pay market rent, you don't pay market prices. You have to keep swinging that hammer. Eventually the numbers will work out for you. You'll buy something 15, 20, 30% below. So if you want to sacrifice and keep renting and keep stacking paper and just keep a buy box and keep trying and trying. Awesome. You don't have. Hey, everybody. You don't have to buy a home. You don't have to. It's not written down anywhere in law. But if you want to get wealthy, you have to own assets. And the best way to do that is to find a seller who is motivated. It just takes time.
Graham Stephan
What is your prediction then for home prices over the next five to 10 years?
Michael Zuber
So I'll give you five years, because I called in 2022 would be eight years. It's flat. It's just flat. It's, you know, flats. Plus or minus 1%. These are national median home prices. So you can hold me accountable. Right. So this is probably through 29 or 30, and that's basically where we've been for four years. And that's just where we're going to be because it takes time. It takes month after month after month after month for wages to grow. And then, you know, if we get the tailwind of lower interest rates, great. But it's just. It's going to. It's going to take eight years.
Jack Kramer
How do you know that prices will be flat until 2030? That just seems like a crazy prediction. What is the research behind this? What evidence do you have to suggest it will be flat?
Graham Stephan
It's funny. JP Morgan also just said that their prediction was real estate was going to be zero, which actually means, adjusted for inflation, you are Negative.
Michael Zuber
Correct.
Graham Stephan
Allegedly. 3%.
Michael Zuber
Anybody?
Graham Stephan
But inflation could be significantly higher than that. I believe inflation's probably more like 5 to 6%, which means in real terms, real estate is going down a few percent every single year.
Michael Zuber
Yeah. Again, all these numbers I'm referring to. You're absolutely right, Are nominal. It's not adjusted for inflation. So that's a very good point. Again, I can only Refer back to that spreadsheet because I don't have a crystal ball. But I know what happened last time when rates went up 700 basis points. It took 14 or 16 years for it to come back. This time what did we do different? Well we raised them over an 18 month period. So my guess, it is a guess, you can call it a prediction if you want. Educated guess maybe is it will take between eight and 10 years to get back to normal and that just means prices stay flat.
Jack Kramer
So you're comparing today's environment though to an environment a long time ago. Obviously we all know that things are different now. Like you can't just say because it happened in the past, it's going to happen the exact same way today. With all of the other factors that are playing in, how does that affect your prediction?
Michael Zuber
Well first and foremost you're absolutely right. We're going back 70 years or whatever it is. So again, you know, it's, it's, it is a long time ago. Well let's go to something a lot more relevant. The gfc, the global financial crisis, the housing crash where people have PTSD and just think it's going to happen again. Again. I invested through that environment. I actually sold all my houses in OH6 so I didn't have any houses. In 08 I had apart I had 80 apartment buildings. So again I've been doing this a long time and made a lot of great calls. So why did I do that? Well in 2006 51% of mortgage originations were adjustable rate mortgages. Most of them had these toxic two year balloons. So what happened in that Cycle is in 2008 mortgage payments tripled. Tripled. So they became forced sellers. And oh by the way, if you want to talk economics, their shelter cost was 1000 for two years, then it was 3000 for the next 28. But rent was 1700. So for the first two years they were net positive after year two and the rate shot up cause it was just a teaser rate, they were upside down and that's why everybody stopped paying. It had jingle mail and people just started sending them in. So motivated sellers. But now ask yourself what was it like in 2422 we had over 95% of loans fixed. That is magic. People don't understand why this K shaped economy is happening. We have 60 some odd percent of people with shelter cost that is artificially low. Artificially. They lucked out with 2% mortgages and 3% mortgages. Now guess what? They have extra money to buy Teslas. Extra money to buy Rolexes, extra money to do Gucci bags, whatever it is. Because their shelter cost, their second largest expense is fixed at an artificially low level. Why they're not selling. They would be a fool to sell. They're make it up, right? Their payment's 1,300. Rent for the same house is 21, right. Today it doesn't make sense, right? If you're gonna buy today, it's $2,800 mortgage 21. But we have 60 some odd percent of people who own homes that have artificially low shelter costs. They're in the catbird seat.
Graham Stephan
Hey now, really quick, I just want to say as a reminder that Father's Day is coming up and I know what most of you guys do. You probably wait until the very last minute you search Amazon for the best Father's Day gifts. You pick one of those and then by July it's sitting in a drawer unused. But this year you could actually make a huge impact with the Magbag Elite phone case who's sponsoring the video.
Jack Kramer
One rule set for myself is if he's not going to use it every single day, it's not worth buying. And that's exactly why this is the perfect gift. There's a built in finger loop for grip side rails so it doesn't slip, a kickstand that folds right in, and magnets strong enough to snap onto any surface, desk, car, wherever. They really thought through every detail of this case.
Graham Stephan
And you could pair it with the Magbag smart wallet which snaps right onto the back, holds his cards and has a built in tracker so you could ping it if it goes missing. This is something I genuinely use by the way, all the time because I tend to misplace my wallet. I just set it down somewhere and I think I'm going to remember where I put that and then I forget it. And I'm always in a rush. But with the tracker involved with this, I could just see exactly where I left it. It makes a little beeping sound, I go right to it. And this has saved me so much time, you have no idea.
Jack Kramer
There are a few things in life that I'm actually very picky on. And now I have a new one and it's phone cases. If you have not had a nice phone case, like a actually handy phone case, you gotta try it out and you will never go back. It's, it's phenomenal. And if you want to go further, they have multi chargers, car mounts, Tesla chargers, key tags. There's something for every kind of dad. So get A gift your dad will actually use this year with Magback. The link is down below in the description. And be sure to use our code for 15% off. The code is right here and also down below in the description. Thank you so much to Magbak for sponsoring this episode.
Graham Stephan
Now, what do you say to this? Because this post on Twitter claims that the entire housing boom was built on peak boomer spending, peak household formation, peak leverage, peak asset inflation. And their justification is that when boomers get older, they're going to be flooding the market with inventory that no millennials could afford. And because people are starting families later in life, they're not having as many kids. There's not as, there's not as much of a need for all of these houses anymore.
Michael Zuber
So I would add one wrinkle to that. It's not only houses, but it's the wrong configuration. Right? Baby boomers bought big McMansions. So let's add that to the kind of question. So I studied this a lot and the demographic, the demographics look questionable by 2040, in my opinion. So again, some people are trying to rush this. Like all baby boomers die on the same day. That's not how it works. First and foremost, people are living longer all the time. Medicine is better all the time. In fact, a lot of people are aging out in their homes, so they're not going to assisted living or whatnot. So I think a lot of people are onto something. But again, I think we have 12 to 15 years to figure it out. And maybe we'll have another baby boom when millennials start having kids. Who knows? But I do agree that demographics are concerning, but it's 10, 15, 20 years from now. And oh, by the way, we're the greatest country in the world and all we got to do is turn on migration again and that problem goes away.
Graham Stephan
So how could you be wrong about your prediction?
Michael Zuber
So I ask myself that question all the time. There's macro and micro. A macro wrong. I fundamentally believe that Donald Trump, President Trump, wants to win the midterm elections. That's something I fundamentally believe. And in order to do that, he has to get the straight of Hormuz open and he has to have inflation start coming down. Also, he just put up Kevin Warship and the my again prediction, guess whatever is he's going to cut interest rates somehow, some way, probably by blaming AI for deflation. If those don't happen, stuff blows up. Right? That's something I could get wrong. Micro level again. I've been studying my market of the Central Valley for 25 years. Fresno, where most of my units are, is a very red county in a blue state. If that flipped, that could be a problem. Right? So there's all kinds of things that could go wrong. But again, I ask myself these questions every day and I pivot all the time. I've made some very big calls and I'm not afraid to make them again.
Graham Stephan
But now millennials and Gen Z have been called a renter generation. What do you think is a policy change that would actually get them into a house by 2030?
Michael Zuber
We have to make it profitable to build entry level housing. I don't think we understand what entry level housing is in this country. The average home in 2024 was 2,300 square feet. The average home in the 1950s was sub 1,000. We need that extra bathroom, that extra bedroom, this extra this, this extra that. That's not entry level housing. That's, that's like the next jump or the jump after that. But again, the millennials, Gen Z, you don't have options. Condos are your best thing, but then you have to deal with hoas. So we have to find a way to make building smaller homes profitable.
Graham Stephan
How would it be? Because my understanding is that back then in the 1950s and 60s, land was really abundant. You didn't have all these regulations, you didn't have these standards. And because they have to follow so many things and pay a premium for the land with way more risk with labor, they have to build that just to, like, make any amount of money. If they built any less than what they currently do, they would be losing and they just wouldn't build to begin with.
Michael Zuber
I completely agree. If we can't, as I said, if they can't do it profitably, they won't do it. And that's why we're not building them. So I don't have a silver bullet or an answer. You could find government land and give them away, but most of that lands in places people don't want to be. You could try to lower regulations. There's all kinds of things you just, you have to have a focused effort to say, hey, you know, again, I'm just thinking off the top of my head. If you build a home that's less than a thousand square feet, the, you know, we'll waive X, Y and Z conditions. That could work, right? You have to create a stick and a carrot. And right now there's neither.
Graham Stephan
Now, in terms of affordability, Ben Shapiro says that if you can't afford an area, you should just Go and move to somewhere else that you could afford. You got a lot of backlash for this. What is your take on that?
Michael Zuber
I say you live where you want and invest where the numbers make sense. Again, there are folks that want to always be around their family. The family unit's important and that's awesome. That should be celebrated. That's why I think a lot of folks are getting into these multi generational living. You're actually seeing builders here in Vegas that have multi gen, you know, properties being built for that. I think that's going to become something. So I would not be so, I don't know, I'll say arrogant to say something like that. Dude, we live in a free country. And if you want to live where you want, great. You just have to realize that you have to make other choices.
Graham Stephan
When do you think it's worth it to buy a house versus rent?
Michael Zuber
Right now, in 2026, the only answer is if you get a smoking deal, Right? If you get something that's 15, 20 or percent below real value, which can happen, but it takes work.
Jack Kramer
So how would you minimize the work and maximize the reward? Like if someone wants to go out there and find a place 15% off,
Graham Stephan
what would they do? Yeah, and how do you know it's 15% off? Because I see some of these deals where it looks like 15% off, but then I'm like, well no, it's just not worth a hundred percent. It's worth 85% of what they're asking.
Michael Zuber
So let's talk about what I did. So I tried to buy rental property where I lived at the time in Silicon Valley, which I lived in Mountain View. And I spent a year every Sunday looking for this magic cash flow. It didn't exist in 2001 and it certainly doesn't exist today. So I had to make a choice. Where could I go find cash flow? Because I was not going to bet on appreciation. I'd already lost my ass in the stock market. So I wanted cash flow. So ultimately we found Fresno, California, which was two and a half hours away by car, five hour round trip. But what did we find? We found Norris Drive. 1818 Norris Drive East. 93703. Look it up on Zillow. We bought it for 107, it rented for 1095. It beat the 1% rule. That's all I knew back then. So that's what we got and that's where we started. So invest where the numbers make sense, but live where you want.
Graham Stephan
What about though for buying a primary residence?
Michael Zuber
So I'LL tell you what I did. So 2023, I made a decision to leave California and move to Vegas. And we were looking all over the place. This is again where interest rates were going up. I think at the time interest rates were seven and a half percent. And we put a budget of a million dollars. That's just what our budget was, 950 to a million dollars. And all the existing home sales, just existing homes, didn't meet our needs. But again, back to the problem with the 52 year spreadsheet identified is builders had a problem. They built the wrong inventory, they built for the wave and then they were letting properties out at the wrong time. We now live in a part of Henderson that's up in the hills. We got something that was 15% off. It had zero lot premium with a view. So you guys know that that's money somebody else backed out. So we got all the upgrades for free and they gave us a 4.99% fixed 30 year mortgage. So again, I always look for the deal.
Graham Stephan
So when does renting and just saving the difference of buying actually make a significant difference?
Michael Zuber
Well, I think today it's, it's probably true for most people because I don't think most people want to do the work. So let me go back and answer that question. How to do it? The only way I know how to do it is get remarkably disciplined. I have this idea called a buy box. I'll give you my buy box from 2001. Again, remember, I didn't live there, I didn't know anybody. I, I had no experience in this calendar.
Commercial Narrator
Ready to soundtrack your summer with Red Bull Summer All Day Play. You choose a playlist that fits your summer vibe the best. Are you a festival fanatic, a deep end dj, a road dog or a trail mixer? Just add a song to your chosen playlist and put your summer on track. Red Bull Summer All Day Play. Red Bull gives you wings. Visit RedBull.com BrightSummerAhead to learn more. See you this summer.
Michael Zuber
So I picked 93703. It's called the Mayfair District. I picked single family homes. So not duplexes, not condos, nothing else. I picked three or four bedrooms, two car garage, two bathrooms. One story. Why is that important? Because I looked at that criteria and that criteria only every day for three years. So 99% of the market might as well not have existed. But by looking at that market, that criteria every single day and tracking the changes, a, you know what it's worth and B, you know when you can get A deal. That's where most people get wrong. Most people say, hey, I want to buy something, and they're over here, and then they're over here, and then they're over here. You get no economies of scale. You don't know if anything's a good value. You're just guessing. You're trusting Zillow of all things. It's, you know, just people today don't want to be disciplined and do the work.
Graham Stephan
Do you think people are better off buying a house today than renting? We had someone on recently who was making the argument that the average person is never going to invest the difference. And buying a home for the average person out there is a good financial decision, even today, even at six and a half percent interest rates, because the alternative is that they would just spend the extra money.
Michael Zuber
There's certainly a lot of truth in that. If you, if you watch consumer behavior, we do not save money, right? You get a STEMI check, you spend it. We actually just had record tax returns. You guys know the tax returns were up 12%. Guess what happened? They spent the money in Q1. Look at all the retailers, Ralph Lauren, all these other folks. It's just we never save money. So there's a lot of truth in that, given consumer behavior. But back to the crux of your question. I don't care if you buy a home or not. If you want to, I suggest doing the work and getting a deal. You make your money when you buy. This is the difference between real estate and the stock market. The stock market, every second of the day, even bitcoin or crypto, you know what it's worth every single second of the time. Real estate is inefficient. You can. If you work long enough and you make enough offers and you follow up enough and you learn the different creative mechanisms and you find the right seller. This is about finding the right seller. You can make hundreds of thousands of dollars the day you close. Most people won't do that.
Jack Kramer
Is success in real estate more complicated or difficult?
Michael Zuber
Ooh, complicated or difficult? I've never been asked that. I don't think it's complicated. I think it's remarkably simple. But it just takes more work than most people want.
Jack Kramer
And the simple answer to that would just be create a buy box. Have your boxes you need to check. It needs to have this many rooms, this many bathrooms in this location, with a pool, no pool, yada, yada, yada,
Michael Zuber
and then have got it every day for 20 minutes a day, because it doesn't take a lot of time. Right. I think it's justly, it's. Or somebody talks about 18 minutes to be in the top 5% of any skill. That's all I'm asking for, is 20 minutes a day.
Jack Kramer
So you would say if a random viewer out there listened to that advice, that would maximize their likelihood of success in real estate like that.
Michael Zuber
I'll even go one step further. If they do that every day for the next three years like I did, they will A, learn their buy box, they'll know what value is, they won't have to question it, and B, they're going to have an excellent opportunity to find a discount. Because if it's just a law of large numbers, I've written a hundred offers and gotten nothing. Right. I've done that before.
Jack Kramer
Another thing that people say is extremely relevant in today's climate with high interest rates, low affordability, would be creative financing.
Michael Zuber
Sure.
Jack Kramer
I'm curious, what's your experience with that? And do you think that that's a viable solution for someone that wants to get involved in real estate, but they don't quite have the means to do it?
Michael Zuber
Yeah, creative financing is one of those tools that everybody should learn. But let's define creative financing first. So let's call traditional financing 5% down, owner occupied or 25% down investor. Let's just define that as standard. So creative financing is anything other than that typically involving the seller giving you some of the loan. Right. Whether it's a first, a second, or something of that nature. So, yeah, creative financing is very powerful. I've used it half a dozen times, maybe 10 times, but it's always finding the right seller. It's funny, one of the things that I've looked at the last year is what owners of people in my buy box have greater than 50% equity. So what am I doing with that? What I'm doing is I'm giving them two offers. I'm giving them a low cash offer, but I'm also giving them a higher number, assuming they could take some equity back as a second loan. So, yeah, creative financing is a tool. It is a very valuable tool. It doesn't work all the time, but yeah, it's certainly a valuable tool.
Graham Stephan
Where do most people go wrong when it comes to creative financing?
Michael Zuber
First off, I think too many people sell it as the magic beans or the magic sauce and they don't know all the required paperwork. It does take a lot of paperwork to protect you and to protect the seller, which should be paramount in this situation. So you've got to Work with title escrow lawyers, depending on where you are in the country. But I think the paperwork is the biggest thing people get wrong. They think they can just take a napkin and, you know, Joe Schmo signed it. And that's not how this should work. There should be penalties for missed payments. There should be ability to foreclose, all those things. I think people treat paperwork like an afterthought and it should not be.
Jack Kramer
How could you become a professional in real estate? Meaning you're an investor, you're making money, you're just doing real estate for a living when you have no money.
Michael Zuber
Again, that's not who I am. Right. You guys know lots of really famous people like Pace Morby and all these other folks. They're real estate people. I was an employee, guys. I had a tech job. I was an accountant, I was a sales guy, I was a W2 employee. I'm not a full time real estate investor. I now do real estate on my taxes because I get 16, spend 12, so I don't need any more money. But yeah, I'm not that person. I tell you to live below your means. That's the key to this. You know what the three step process to get wealthy is? It's been a hundred years. This has been true. You want it?
Jack Kramer
Yep.
Michael Zuber
Live below your means. So create discretionary income. That's step one. You have to have money that you could plant, whether it's stocks, crypto, classic cars, whatever your thing is. I don't care what it is. I got a buddy of mine who has a seven figure portfolio in ice hockey cards. But that's his thing. That's his jam. So be it. So again, have disposable income. Step one, either make more money or spend less. Olivia And I at 30 years old, so this is 23 years ago, we spent every penny that came in. Over the course of 18 months, we spent half. So we had 50% of our income that we could sock away to real estate and deal with the problems. Right? Broken water heaters and evictions and all that other stuff. Step two is you got to become elite at something. Find your thing. Is it crypto? Is it stocks? Is it, is it being a YouTube podcaster? Whatever your thing is, commit to that. Become elite. And this is the one everybody hates. You gotta do it for a decade. You need time to compound. You need time for proof of concept. It's just we all want things easy today. We want instant. It's not how wealth works. Wealth is slow and consistent and sacrifice.
Jack Kramer
One thing I Find really interesting is how you constantly say, okay, well, like, we'll make 50 to 60amonth, but we'll spend 12. And you're like, one of the maybe two people we've ever had on this podcast that are like, I'm content with where I'm at. Like, I don't need more real estate. I don't need to keep growing. I have enough margin. I'm curious, what makes you different than most people who continue to push off the goalpost? And how are you able to do. Is it a better way of life?
Michael Zuber
Well, I'm certainly not in a position to answer that last question. I will tell you that I'm happy. I'm. I'm not. I'm more than content. I can do anything I want, when I want, with whom I want. And that's pretty amazing.
Jack Kramer
How are you able to do that with 12? Most people would argue. I mean, Graham would argue, okay, well, if you have a family of four, and if you have this, then you probably need 30, $50,000 a month.
Graham Stephan
And would argue for 50,000.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, he would argue you need $50,000 a month.
Michael Zuber
Well, our daughter is 35, so she's already out of the house. So that's part of it. It's just Olivia and I, and we only have one. I'll call it a vice, because it's probably more than most people spend, and that's eating out. We love to eat out and get good food. We don't look at prices, but other than that, we stay home, we're kind of boring.
Graham Stephan
And what would you tell someone who feels like they've done everything right? That they follow your advice, they save money, they avoid debt, and they still can't afford to buy a house.
Michael Zuber
What I would tell you to do is keep grinding. It's not easy, but simple. Back to the earlier point, you just got to keep going. It's only three step, guys. If you don't have enough down payment today, get more of a down payment. Right. Live below your means. Here's a. Here's a true story. So I just want to get as close to accurate as I can. So it's probably 2015. We've been buying real estate for 14 years. We probably have over 100 units. I go to a housewarming of somebody who reports to me. So, like, you know, like, you got people to report to you. So I'm a director, and this manager reports to me. His house is better. We live in a condo. We never upgraded our condo. We had a 1300 square foot condo never upgraded. We had cars that were 10 years old. Right. We just never. We took all our money and socked it in real estate. So he had a better house. He had a backyard. We don't have a backyard. He had new cars. He had a third car. We don't have a third car. His kids went to a better school district. So after this. And again he reports to me, which is really what screwed with my head. I'm trying to drive home and it's only five miles, probably maybe six. And I get about halfway home, I have to pull over because I'm bawling. I'm crying because for 12 years I've asked my family to sacrifice live below our means. And I don't know, it's working. 12 years and you know this, you know, direct reports, living better than me. Or at least I thought so. So first thing happens is Olivia drives us home because I literally couldn't see the road. And then she pulls up the spreadsheet and shows us where we are. Because I had a job that took me all over the world. I worked 60 to 70 hours a week. I had no idea where we were. I was always next deal, next deal, next deal. And then she pulled up the spreadsheet and showed me it was working.
Jack Kramer
What does working mean?
Michael Zuber
Cash flow was coming in. We were know we could live on that, that number at the time. So it just, it, it, it dawned on me. But again I had that moment after 12 years in building a 100 unit portfolio that I didn't know if it was working because I'm an employee. I'm not a guru. I'm not running around doing on stages and all that stuff. It's not my thing. I'm just a simple guy who loves to, you know, I interviewed Graham one time and he talked about his fish tank. For me, the economy is my fish tank. I have done the same thing for 35 years. I wake up at 6am for the next 90 to 120 minutes I'm reading financial news because it's a big puzzle to me. It's fun. It's fun for me to watch all these things work together. That's entertaining for me. And now because of YouTube, I just do a daily show at 7:30 live and let the world know I have. Dude, it's like 300 people watch it. But I love it. So again, I don't have these big desires. I don't want to be a billionaire. One of the nicest things that Pace Morby ever told to me because I Talked to him occasionally was Zuber, you got to know thyself. And that's like a big weight fell off my back. Because I suffer the same comparison that I'm sure most guys do. Like, why can't I do that? Why can't I do that? This, that, the other. But at some point I have more than, more than what I need.
Jack Kramer
So 59, 60. 60. Oh, hey, I didn't see there. I was just getting a quick little bicep workout in and technically I didn't even need to be counting my reps. This thing counts for me. 6, 7 reps in. It won't forget. Great timing though, because AMP is actually sponsoring today's episode and they sent one over for our new warehouse gym. This is amp, the smartest home gym on the market. Think of the cable setup you'd find at a commercial gym, but in your house, it counts your reps, remembers your weights, and when you walk up and hit start, it's already loaded from your last sess. All the guesswork is gone. You can run it in fixed mode for a standard cable feel, or flip it to eccentric mode for extra resistance on the way down. Every fitness expert that we've had on the podcast says that time under tension is key, and this gives you exactly that. It comes with a full set of attachments that lets you do over 500 movements. It's basically like having an entire gym, but in the corner of your room. And if you don't know where to start, it picks a trainer, builds your plan, and tracks everything automatically. And you're not paying $100 an hour for a personal trainer. And on top of all of this, a white glove crew installs it. Ours was up and running in 30 minutes, and there's a 90 day free returns policy. AMP handles the whole pickup, but less than 1% of people send it back, so that should tell you something. The link is down below in the description. Guys, I could not recommend this equipment more. Check it out at AMP AI or also link down below in the description. Use code iced coffee for 10% off. It truly gets a great workout in. Thank you so much to AMP for sponsoring this episode. And back to the podcast. This episode is in partnership with Airbnb. Graham and I are literally always traveling for the podcast and in fact, these past few weeks have been very brutal. We have worked so much, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. I'm actually going to both Thailand and Japan for the next three weeks with a couple close friends. I cannot tell you how excited I am for that. The beaches in Thailand to die for. The food in Thailand. Amazing. And I'm telling you, it's going to be a blast.
Graham Stephan
If you travel a bunch, you probably don't think twice about your home sitting empty, but when you're away, you could actually list your place on Airbnb instead of leaving it unused.
Jack Kramer
And if you've ever considered considered hosting, but weren't sure how you'd manage everything, the co host network can help make it feel a lot more manageable.
Graham Stephan
With this, you could partner with a local co host who has hosting experience and help manage things like creating a listing, managing reservations, messaging guests, and helping make sure everything runs smoothly during their stay.
Jack Kramer
Honestly, it just feels like a practical way to make better use of a space while also bringing in a little extra cash while you're away. At one point, I hosted my place on Airbnb. I kid you not, the guy that checked in was a fan of the channel. I've never said this before and it was a crazy experience, but the entire setup was very straightforward. Everything ran smoothly and it turned into a genuinely great experience overall. If you're interested in hosting and you want a little help getting started, find a co host@airbnb.com host. So on this very impressive 50 year spreadsheet that you made, what were some of the most interesting findings, the most relevant findings that the viewer could use right now to educate themselves to put themselves in a great spot?
Michael Zuber
Well, let me answer that with the one thing that was shocked me the most, and that's about inflation, right? We've, we've heard, you know, we had 9.1%. Currently, if you believe CPI lie, 3.8, whatever it is, they're all talking about 2%, 2%, 2%. So the one question I asked myself after building it was have we ever had a period of time, an extended period of time where inflation was over 2% and it was CPI? And the answer surprisingly was 1987 to 1997 CPI inflation was over 2% that entire decade. So we're talking about the fed getting below 2% and it's been above 2% for four years. But guys, we've been there before. It was over 2% for an entire decade. So what we're going through today is maybe not unusual or unheard of as sometimes the media makes it out to be.
Graham Stephan
For someone who studies the market so much, have you noticed any correlation between the stock market and, and the housing market? Because it seems as though the high end market is really tied to stocks and if stocks are doing well, housing
Michael Zuber
does well, there is no question that there's a correlation in certain cities. Seattle, Austin, San Francisco, San Jose, markets like that, where there's absolutely a correlation in the stock market. And again, you could see that in transactions because I talk to agents almost every week around the country. And when the stock market takes a big dip, which is done a couple of times the last years showing, stop all this other stuff because again, it's their asset wealth there. But I actually want to ask you a different question. Back to the 52 year spreadsheet, because I knew I was coming here today. We've obviously had three years and I think we're going to have a fourth year of double digit S&P 500 growth. Do you guys know if that's ever happened before?
Graham Stephan
Yes.
Michael Zuber
Do you guys know what happened the next 11 years? It was sub optimal growth, it was flat. I have the numbers here on the spreadsheet. Right. It went from like 1280 to 1302 or something after 12 years. So I thought that was interesting. Now why would that happen? Well, it's called reversion to the mean guys. You've had four years of 20% growth and you've probably heard Warren Buffett and everybody else say stocks return 8%. Right. You guys have heard that. Well, you just had four years of 20. In order to get back to the historical run of eight, you're going to have some rough years.
Graham Stephan
So I've heard the argument though that we can't look back 50 plus years in the market because our economy has fundamentally changed since the Internet. And when you look Starting the year 2000, the price to earnings ratio has skyrocketed.
Michael Zuber
Sure.
Graham Stephan
And now that could be the new normal. And even though we are high on the scale of the new normal, we're not at the peak. And with AI and with our global economy, everyone kind of rising at the same time, they say that these elevated returns might continue longer than you would expect.
Michael Zuber
Well, again, nobody has a crystal ball and that is absolutely possible. History says it's not going to end well. Right. Again, if you want to talk about AI again, stock market, all of that, I look at it all the time. I think there's a lot of circular revenue in there. I do think that again, studying economics, if you go back and look at where we've had crisis before, you could look at railroads, you can look at utilities, you can look at the Internet, DSCL lines, all of that, there's a time where money comes flying in, Right. It just keeps invest Every idea is funded and then it's not. And you know, I don't know why AI would be any different now.
Graham Stephan
If mortgage rates drop to 4% tomorrow, what would happen to the housing market? Would it be the prices explode or would it be that supply finally begins to catch up?
Michael Zuber
Well, I love that you asked that question because my brain always goes to why it collapsed to 4% because that's a different answer. For example, one of the reasons it could collapse to 4% is we are now in a depression. Unemployment's 11%. It could be something nasty like that or it could be the other side. Kevin Warsh says we've got some new whiz bang inflation measure and it's 1.8% and we're this, that and the other. And then he could cut. So there's really two answers to that.
Graham Stephan
Let's say the second answer because he wants to do what's called trimmed averages.
Michael Zuber
Correct.
Graham Stephan
Which would basically take out the extremes of the inflation report. So in this case you would take out the extreme of rising oil.
Michael Zuber
Correct.
Graham Stephan
All of a sudden, now inflation goes from 4 down to 1.8 in target and then they could cut rates.
Michael Zuber
Absolutely.
Graham Stephan
So if that were to happen. Because that seems plausible.
Michael Zuber
Oh, it absolutely is plausible. One of the. I think Kevin Warsh is going to do three things. One is change the definition of inflation, go from CPI to this median trend or whatever it's called. He's also going to stop the Fed presidents from communicating so much and then he's going to use technology to get better economic metrics. This whole telephone survey nonsense is going to be flushed down the toilet. So Those are the three things you could expect Kevin Warsh to do inside 90 days. So let's. What you're describing is a rosy and fun picture. It's really interesting. I actually think prices would go down because I think we've had four years of restricted selling and if you take rates to 4% enough people who have been just kind of getting by like we talked about earlier, I think a lot of them would list immediately and anytime you get more supply in a very short window, prices will fall. So I actually think that median home prices fall maybe for four to six months. If interest rates go sub 4%, which is probably a, probably most people would disagree with, but I think that's pretty certain.
Graham Stephan
So do you think anyone can be a real estate investor?
Michael Zuber
Can, yes.
Graham Stephan
Should know who should and shouldn't.
Michael Zuber
It's, it's folks that can understand this is a journey. It's a 10 year journey to building wealth. There will be lots of twists and turns and some very bad days. People will steal from you. Stuff will break, permits will be a problem. Right. So not everybody can handle the ups and downs of real estate. So can everybody.
Jack Kramer
Sure.
Michael Zuber
Should everybody know? I don't think everybody's wired to sacrifice for a decade, deal with the BS that happens and, you know, still smile at the end of the day because there are some very hard days.
Graham Stephan
Is it still worth it to invest in real estate though?
Michael Zuber
I don't know why it wouldn't be. Again, if you can find the right deal, if you can get the right debt structure and you can hold for more than a decade, history says you're gonna be okay, right? You gotta own assets. Dude, we live in a fiat based economy. This is what drives me crazy. You guys think that we're gonna go back to the gold standard or something crazy like that? No, we're gonna grow our way out of this. They're either gonna default or we're gonna grow. Dude, inflation's a feature, not a bug.
Graham Stephan
So why wouldn't you just invest in the stock market instead?
Michael Zuber
Well, again, I think everybody should do their thing. I have a very dark history with the stock market. I turned from 7 to 2 to go to 40. I chose to become a real estate expert. If you want to take the time to study the stock market, if you want to take the time to do that, then you should do your thing. I'm not here to tell you that real estate is the right answer for everybody. In fact, it's probably not the right answer for most people. Most people should buy index funds. Most people should buy mutual funds. They should save for their 401. But if you want to grind and you want to have a buy box and you want to be a freak of nature and look at it every day for three years like I did, then I welcome you to the party. You can get wealthy that way. Real estate is inefficient, guys. The stock market's not inefficient. The price of intel or the price of Nvidia or what is known by everybody on the planet at every second. That's not how real estate works. I just sold a duplex. I told you that in the opening. I value this duplex on my financial statement at 400 grand. I would not have bought it for anything more than 250. Today I had somebody offer somebody reach out to me. They wanted to run a sober living facility there because it's, it's two four bedroom, two Bath houses on one lot. So big houses, like, yeah, 1800 square feet or something. It's perfect for what they want. So I didn't want to sell this house or this duplex. You know, I have a list of properties that I'm going to give my daughter Teresa. And this was on that list because it just prints money, right? It's easy, it's yards, it's got a fence down the line. So it just operates like two houses. It's not connected. I wasn't going to sell. So he kept pushing, kept pushing, kept pushing, and I finally said 599. Again, I valued it at 400, right. I'm like, hey, dude, if you want to pay 50% over, I'll sell. So I say 599. He ghosts me, or at least I think he ghosts me. Turns out he's got grant money from the state of California and he comes back to me at five and a quarter. Again, I value it at 400. So I come back at 550. We settle at 537. I also take the commission from 5% to 1% as is nothing else.
Graham Stephan
How is that responsible from the state of California to throw money at a property significantly above what it's worth?
Michael Zuber
They have a need, and that is the only house in that or the only setup. They identified five properties and mine was the unicorn that fit their need. And the only way to get it from me was to overpay. So I'm not, I'm not here, I'm telling you right now, they overpaid.
Graham Stephan
See, I'm going to say this like, I'm not saying it's illegitimate, but I've like Nick Shirley's video on the hospice situation.
Michael Zuber
I've seen it. Yeah.
Graham Stephan
It just makes me think that when I was doing real estate in Los Angeles, the sober living people who would reach out were always seen as a bit of a joke because they would come in and offer like double the price for anything. And they were always the most like unscrupulous people who had just like come in and they would be wearing chains and this and that, and they drive up in a brand new Benz and they just didn't seem like a sophisticated investor or business, but somehow they had 30 grand a month to spend and it just, it made the wheels turn that, like, something's off.
Michael Zuber
Yeah. So I have no idea if that's what this person. I only did, did everything over the phone and email because I had a team down there. But yeah, it could have been. But again, we sold it. We Raised more capital and you know, we're probably put in apartment buildings.
Jack Kramer
What are some of the biggest lies about investing in real estate that you're seeing spread online? Because I'm sure that you see a lot of crazy content, especially from some famous and potentially like people see these people as expert real estate investors.
Michael Zuber
I think a lot of people do two things that annoy me about real estate investing. A, they try to make it sound easier than it is.
Graham Stephan
So good, so good, so good. New markdowns up to 70% off are
Commercial Narrator
at Nordstrom Rack stores now. Stock up and save big on shoes,
Michael Zuber
tops, dresses, accessories and more must haves for summer.
Commercial Narrator
Join the NordicLub to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus buy online and pick up at
Michael Zuber
your favorite rack store for free.
Commercial Narrator
Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.
Michael Zuber
And B, they try to sell the lie of you don't need any money. I think both of those things are they're going after the wrong crowd. They're going after the crowd that doesn't have the money to scrape together to really get into this. And that's why they should just make more money or spend less and keep saving. But I think there's a lot of unscrupulous people that are selling the idea of easy and also a version of no money down.
Graham Stephan
So what's your thought then about just buying real estate right now outright in cash as an investment?
Michael Zuber
So back to the answer of debt. And this is, this is why what we're going through today in multifamily is exactly what happened with residential and the gfc. It's the debt that blew up and it's the payment that blew up. You could add on top of this, you know, insurance, taxes also in some parts of the country. But guys, it's always the debt resolution, RTC debt, savings and loan crisis debt. It's always the debt that rose up. So again, what I tell most people and you'll hear me fight against this all the time is just get 30 year fixed rate debt. Don't get arms. I don't care if your plan is to live there 5 years, don't get a 7 year ARM 30 year fixed rate debt. Because you guys don't realize. You guys probably do but the audience doesn't. We are so uniquely gifted with the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It is a one way bet. If rates go up, do nothing. Rates go down, you can refi Canada five years, Australia 10, whatever it is, right? It's the debt that blows up. That's why Canada's real estate market's in trouble is because the debt's blowing up.
Graham Stephan
So is it worth it then to buy in cash? If you have the cash, is that a good bet?
Michael Zuber
Again, if you're going to. So the answer to that question, Graham, is where are you in your journey? If it's your first property, most of you will never get there doing the Dave Ramsey save, save, save, save, save, because the price will just get away from you. You can't save fast enough. I believe when you get to the point you can have 50% equity, that is great. Right? I think I said the numbers earlier. We're at 25 and 9, so that's even below 50%, but that's where we're comfortable is at the right around the 50% number. But again, we were not there for a decade. I took every penny out of real estate the first 10 years. I did cash out, refis, 1031 exchanges, all that stuff. Because again, I was about growing the base. So you just have to decide what kind of investor you want to be. Are you growing the base and just keep rolling the equity up? Or at some point do you want to get more conservative? So where are you in your journey? Is the answer.
Graham Stephan
What's the most difficult part about being a landlord?
Michael Zuber
I'll answer that in two different ways because being a landlord for a single family home is very different than apartment buildings. So we'll split that up. So being for a single family home, it's probably dealing with late payments. Because again, that's because again, in a single family home, the tenant does all the maintenance, or at least most of the maintenance. You know, they're supposed to do the yard and water and all of that. So again, it's dealing with tenants who are telling stories or lies. So collecting rent and then multifamily. It's so. I was not ready for this. It's like you're a counselor. He's parked in my spot. His music's too loud. The radio's this, the baby's crying, the dog did this, blah, blah, blah. So you're, you know, you're a social worker.
Jack Kramer
How do you invest your margin outside of real estate? Because if you're able to save an additional 40 or so thousand dollars a month, what do you do with it? Do you buy stocks? Crypto?
Michael Zuber
No.
Jack Kramer
Real estate. Save it.
Michael Zuber
No, we actually enjoy life at this point. I told you guys earlier, we did three weeks in Australia. That was from the gravy. We just did a week in. Bam. That was from the gravy we're doing a cruise in a month. That's from the gravy. So we're enjoying life.
Jack Kramer
So you're just spending it?
Michael Zuber
Yeah, we're enjoying life. Because again, I think most people just keep changing the goalposts and I've been very good about not doing that.
Jack Kramer
How did you not do that?
Michael Zuber
It's. I don't know if it's. I can only speak for guys. It is tough for a man who's a, you know, a AAA personality to kind of check out. And the nearest thing I could tell you is, you know, we've climbed this financial mountain now 25 years. It's been 25 years. And what Olivia and I have agreed to is we're, we're going to sit down and we're going to enjoy the view. I am not saying I won't stand up and climb higher later. That's, that's how I, that's how I get around this. I think at 53, I still have a good 10 or 20 years to really get in it if I want to. But I also know that at 53 I could sit here for 20 more years. So I do. How I get around it is I give myself permission to stand up and grow if we want to. And that is enough for me to not have this voice in the back of my head calling me a loser. Because even where I'm at, the people that we interact with, most of them will call me a loser probably because, you know, I'm not driving to be a nine figure person or this thing or that thing. I'm like, dude, I got a pretty good life.
Jack Kramer
And so at what point do you think most people could live a life like that?
Michael Zuber
That is the, that is the most important question. I believe most people don't know what their life costs. They don't know what their life costs. They don't know where the money's going. So I suggest most people do a 30 or a 90 day audit and track every freaking penny because you got to know what your life costs. That's what we did then. What we did is we did a need versus want analysis. Do we need this or do we want this? And we were ruthless. We did this together. But we took our expenses from 100% to 50 by being ruthless.
Jack Kramer
So from $24,000 a month to 12.
Michael Zuber
Well, again, so again, I was 30 years old at the time, so it was probably eight to four, something like that.
Graham Stephan
Did you notice a lifestyle difference from 8 to 4? Or was it like all these things that you just weren't paying attention to.
Michael Zuber
Our friends did not know what was going on. That's the most thing. That's what it is. Right? Again, I was in Silicon Valley and a sales guy and people would drop crazy money on belts and shoes and new cars and lease payments and keeping up with the Joneses. We were just not participating. We were made fun of, I'm sure. Right. Because again we had at the time eight or nine year old cars. I know we were made fun of at our silly little 1300 square foot condo.
Jack Kramer
Right.
Michael Zuber
Because we could have easily upgraded three or four times. So yeah, it was our. We had to change our network because we just refused to participate in the culture of consumerism.
Graham Stephan
I'm always curious how much other people are making when I see them living this like crazy lifestyle. I'm always wondering is that like a paycheck to paycheck thing or is that like they're making way more or like.
Michael Zuber
I know, I know hundreds if not thousands of people in the Silicon Valley. And I mean a salary at Facebook is 386 grand. 386 grand is the average salary at Facebook and most of them are living paycheck to paycheck because they do dumb shit with money. This is crazy. It's wild. Now some of that's because it's expensive to live there. Let's not. And then, and then they, and again both parents work so their kids in daycare. Right. So there's some of that real life stuff. But no, the, the. I'm sure you both have seen articles about people making 2 or 300 grand living paycheck to paycheck. It is all over the Silicon Valley
Graham Stephan
and most entrepreneurs don't realize how much time and money they're burning. In traditional hiring, we're talking job postings, interviews, onboarding, sometimes months before someone's actually doing the work.
Jack Kramer
That's where our sponsor Upwork comes in. Upwork is a one stop platform to find, hire and pay expert freelancers across software development, marketing, business operations and over 125 other categories without the weeks long recruiting process.
Graham Stephan
With this you're able to browse profiles, review past work and get started fast. And with Business plus, you can access the top 1% of talent on Upwork.
Jack Kramer
Upwork also handles contracts and payments in just one place so you can stay focused on running your business. I've personally used upwork. It genuinely makes the whole process so much easier and more affordable. With industry low fees, signing up is completely free and posting a job takes
Graham Stephan
minutes so visit Upwork.com copy right now and post your job for free. Again, that is Upwork.com Coffee to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow. The link is also down below in
Jack Kramer
the description that is upwork.comcoffee or upwork.com/coffee.
Graham Stephan
Now really quick, I got to say that when Jack and I first started the Iced Coffee Hour, we had to figure out everything ourselves from like the best cameras, to use, the best editing equipment, how to get guests, how to run a podcast. To begin with, every single day was a brand new challenge. Which is why if you're starting or growing your own business, you know how valuable today's sponsor is. And that would be Shopify.
Jack Kramer
Shopify is exactly like having an all in one business partner. They support millions of businesses worldwide from major brands like Allbirds and Gymshark to people who are just getting started. And here's a fun fact, if you've shopped online in the us, there's a really good chance it was through Shopify because I kid you not, they handle about 10% of all American e commerce.
Graham Stephan
What's really great about Shopify is that they give you access to a complete design studio with hundreds of ready to use templates to build a beautiful online store that perfectly matches your brand. Even better, there's no coding needed and their AI tools even help you write product descriptions and enhance your product photos.
Jack Kramer
Shopify also makes marketing incredibly simple with easy to use email and social campaigns that reach customers wherever they're scrolling by. Plus they handle literally everything from inventory to shipping to returns. Basically all of the complicated stuff that you do not want to deal with.
Graham Stephan
So start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing today. On top of that, you can also sign up for a $1 a month trial today by going to shopify.comich again, that is shopify.comich with the link also down below in the description. Thank you again to Shopify for sponsoring this episode.
Jack Kramer
So what's the secret to financial independence then?
Michael Zuber
Well, that's actually really interesting. You guys did an interview with Caleb Hammer. You asked him something like, have you seen people be successful at this?
Graham Stephan
Right?
Michael Zuber
Taking his advice and getting on this track for financial freedom. And his answer was very spot on in my opinion. It's people who have gotten fit or done overcome something hard. Why was that? I mean that was the most valuable part of that conversation for me because it is so true. Getting financially fit is a 10 year journey and most humans cannot do that for 10 years. But you know what? A health journey. Six months. You could change your body in six months. Right. So again, I think he's right. If the people that are going to figure out how to get wealthy have done something hard and seen the benefits, because if you can't make those connections, why are you going to sacrifice? So again, I think if you want to get wealthy, get healthy.
Graham Stephan
You know what's something crazy is I read that there are more people in the United States that have a million dollars or more than have a six pack.
Michael Zuber
I've said that too. And it's not even close. It's pretty crazy.
Graham Stephan
That's crazy. And when you really think about it, a six pack is simply eating less calories crib than you. What?
Jack Kramer
Let's be honest. Neither of us three have a six pack.
Graham Stephan
I'm just saying, neither of us three
Jack Kramer
have a six pack yet. Okay, like, how many people do you even know that have a six pack? Jake Udell, Mike Parker will claim he does, but he knows he doesn't. And if you're watching this Mike, you do not.
Graham Stephan
You maybe have a two pack. Jake does.
Jack Kramer
Jake has a six pack. Jake does. He probably got etching.
Graham Stephan
No, he.
Jack Kramer
I don't know.
Graham Stephan
I.
Jack Kramer
Very few people have six packs.
Graham Stephan
Liver King.
Michael Zuber
Is Liver King etching?
Graham Stephan
You know, Gosh, Yeah.
Michael Zuber
But no, I. I really do think if you accomplish something hard and it could be anything, it could be learning a second language or whatever. It's just something that takes shorter duration. You're much more likely to get wealthy because you make the connection.
Jack Kramer
It just reminds me of the same thing. It's the Dave ran. I feel like every single time someone just absolutely drops a bomb on the podcast, I'm like, that just sounds exactly like something Dave Ramsey said. What you just said is it. It's the same thing that he said where it's like, how do you actually motivate someone to change? Which is effectively what we're asking here. And he just says, take it from the eyes of a farmer. Will a farmer plant the crops? Will he water them on. On a schedule? Will he do all of the things, tend to his plants to make sure that they grow? If he thinks they won't actually grow into a nice yield of corn, no, he won't. But if he knows that he does all. If he does all of the things correctly, then he will have a yield, then he'll do it. And so it's just like the faith, in his opinion, the faith that if you put good in, you'll get good. Out, which is effectively what you're saying. Have you been through something hard, worked hard at it? Yeah, yeah.
Michael Zuber
Seen the outcome and then you're willing to do it again? I want to give a shout out to Dave Ramsey. So I've seen a lot of presentations in my life. I was, I was a sales guy, so I saw lots of these. He gave the most meaningful presentation I saw. It was at a Think Media event with Sean Canoe. And Dave Ramsey basically was on stage saying I've been saying the same thing for 40 years. He hasn't deviated. And that was such a great thing for me to hear because again, I think getting wealthy is remarkably simple. And I'm going to keep saying the same thing. You guys heard me talk a buy box. I've been saying the same thing. So the fact that Dave Ramsey After 40 some odd years is saying the same thing and still impacting lives, I love that. I love that. That was the most impactful speech I'd ever seen.
Graham Stephan
What do you think about the fact that Dave Ramsey would not borrow a billion dollars at 0% interest?
Michael Zuber
Again, you can never judge a man. To each his own. I would certainly take that money, throw it in a T bill and enjoy the money and then pay it off. It's, it's brain dead simple to me. But again, if you're anti debt and you don't want it, that's, you know, I get it.
Jack Kramer
I will say that his based on the context of his life, context aside, I don't think it makes sense but in the context of his life, it actually kind of does make sense. If you've already won the game, what do you have to gain from 3% in a T bill?
Michael Zuber
Yeah, you know, if that's the question.
Jack Kramer
But if you know, you take a broke person, he would tell them, oh, you shouldn't do that. I'm like, okay, well in that case it will actually change their life if they do that. But for him it's not going to change his Life. He gets 3% on a billion.
Michael Zuber
I completely agree with that. Again, it's really funny. I've seen a lot of people quote unquote win the game and they make one more play and it blows up. I knew a guy back in the GFC who was worth 10 million bucks and he, he didn't take one 50k loss on a custom home and his entire empire broke.
Jack Kramer
What do you mean by that?
Michael Zuber
So he's trying to sell a house. He was selling big at the time. Two and three million dollar homes in the Bay Area now they're probably seven or eight million. But he was into this house and. And the buyer wanted to get a 50k credit for something. I don't remember what it was. And he said no. So he had to put the property back on the market. And then it sat and sat and the interest kept eating him alive. And then that caused another one and another one and another one and then he was wiped out.
Graham Stephan
How common is that?
Michael Zuber
Well, is. Is when this is. I'm glad this goes back to that spreadsheet. This is why I had to build that spreadsheet. Because it's more common than you're not. Than not. People, you know, they don't realize the cycle changes. They always think the cycle is going to go up and cycles. That's not how cycles work. Cycles go up and they go down and they go up and go down. So back to building the spreadsheet. I just wanted to know if I was going to get hurt again. So yeah, cycles happen.
Jack Kramer
Do you think I'm missing out by not investing in real estate more aggressively
Michael Zuber
again? You guys have. You are the top 0.1% of what you guys do. You should be full on that real estate would detract from your gift. It's hard now. If someday you get married, for example, and she is interested in real estate, you could get her to be a real estate professional and things of that nature. But I think you are so, dude, lean into what you're really good at,
Jack Kramer
like selling covered calls. Do you think that I could just then like save up as aggressively as I possibly can, Buy a place, cash, and then just rinse and repeat that process? Like would that be smarter then? Because then I could probably eventually apply for real estate professional status.
Michael Zuber
No, you're never going to know. You're never going to know.
Jack Kramer
I don't, I don't work too much. Let's just, you know, call for what is. In the event I do end up filing as a real estate professional, I don't work too much on the iced coffee hour.
Michael Zuber
You're. The income differential would not make that okay. It's not going to happen. Sorry. I've thought about it too, but it's not going to happen. But your wife could. That could happen.
Jack Kramer
You guys heard it here. So he's getting married. Yeah. If you're a real estate professional or husband. If you're a real estate professional and you're a woman. Yeah, let me know. Let me know. So, yeah, okay, noted. I will not.
Michael Zuber
So. So let me add to that. So again, if you are committed to real estate because you just believe it. Again, I always go back to know thyself. I would not own properties free and clear. I would get 50% loans. That's what I would do if I was in your situation.
Jack Kramer
I have this house right now. I might move out of it at some point. I have $400,000 in debt on it. It's probably worth $700,000. I, I live in it now. So I have the exclusion from the capital gains tax.
Michael Zuber
Correct.
Jack Kramer
Should I then sell it when I move out or should I just rent it out? Again, I don't know, 2.875.
Michael Zuber
I don't know all the numbers, but assuming it would cash flow, I guess assuming there's, it's not an. I call it an alligator. When you have to feed it every month again at 2.87 or whatever it is, I, it's. I assume it would cash flow.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, just keep it.
Michael Zuber
And again, you just keep it. Would you throw my argument though? Well, hold on one sec. So again, you could keep it and try it because again that five year exclusion, you could try to be a landlord.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, that's what I was saying. For three years. Yeah.
Michael Zuber
And if you don't like it, then sell it, then bounce. But. Sorry.
Graham Stephan
The problem with Jack's house is that any amount of vacancy or one repair or one major thing would eat up a significant check of the profit. And if one thing comes up in the year, the amount that he's netting on this even with his mortgage is so insignificant that it's not even worth his brain power hour. Like just doing one episode. Okay, one episode a year of the Iced coffee hour I'm sure would surpass the rental income.
Michael Zuber
So again, I, I'm going to lean into my two earlier answers again. You are, you guys are very, very good at what you do. And you should lean into a new income streams and partnership. You guys are at the first inning of what should be a multi, you know, inning game. So keep going. And you're right. Anytime it really, you know, this real estate consumes brain. It's like brain damage. And that could set off a bad day. And it can cause you to do this or do that or you get antsy. But that said, I do believe that real estate for guys like you could just be a forced savings account. So I mean there's. You got to know thyself.
Jack Kramer
That's the way I see it. At the very least, I have divided diversification of investment. So like I would have. All of my money is in stocks. Do I want more money in stocks or could I at least have $700,000 invested in Las Vegas real estate? I don't think that's like the worst thing in the world.
Michael Zuber
So again, I think, I think with that five year exclusion, you try it out for a couple of years and you see if it impacts your job the second it impacts iced coffee hour. Sell the damn thing.
Graham Stephan
Yeah, but then there's going to be that cliff of like year three where maybe it's like, well, maybe this is good enough. But year four comes around, you got to replace that roof. All of a sudden the AC goes
Michael Zuber
out, you should be.
Graham Stephan
Tenant moves out. And then it's like, well, then you lose the 250 capital.
Michael Zuber
Well, you should. Well, yeah, that's why the three years is a. You got to be really on that. Because if you're going to get past three, you're in it for 10. Right.
Jack Kramer
What do you think about investing in commercial real estate?
Michael Zuber
So define commercial.
Jack Kramer
So anything that's like multi family, multi unit, apartment complex. I'm not talking, I'm talking like living so multifamily. Yeah.
Michael Zuber
Just so we're clear, multifamily is an investment that I am looking at personally. Why? Because in this spreadsheet it showed me that after interest rates went up with Paul Volcker, the RTC occurred eight to ten years later and properties were sold at significant discounts. So earlier in this episode, I told you about selling a duplex. The fact that we've raised seven figures. I am looking to buy multifamily apartments at 60 to 70% of debt. That's what I am looking to do. Now in my market of California, that's probably still a year away. That's already occurring in Texas. I've seen some things in other parts of the country, but this bomb, it's going to be a great transfer of wealth and I look to be a part of it. So I think multi, like if you have the stroke, it's multifamily for me.
Jack Kramer
Brandon Turner said something that I thought was very interesting. He said the value of real estate is effectively the cost of the real estate. Like if you can build commodity. Exactly. If you can build cheaper than the value of real estate will go down. And he thinks that AI will cause things to become so deflationary that you'll have humanoid robots that are able to build a house. This could be 15 years, but they can build a house in a tenth the time and a tenth the cost. And if that's the case, then you'd you'd have perfect houses propping up everywhere, which would increase the supply and then values would go down. What do you think about something like that? How will AI just affect real estate in general?
Michael Zuber
So first I'll say that I do believe AI is going to be hugely deflationary. It's going to be deflationary in areas other than housing. Sooner. I don't see the world the same way because again, it's not only the construction of a home, but it's also the land. A lot of the great pieces of land are already done, they're already taken. Right. So I think what happens is the land like in the hills around here with views that gets more valuable because now you're just building little shacks next to each other. So I think you're going to see K shaped housing. You're going to see the before and the after.
Jack Kramer
What return do you get on your portfolio?
Michael Zuber
Well, that's, I mean, dude, you're talking to a 25 year vet. Do you want return on equity? Do you want to return on a capital investment?
Jack Kramer
Let's do return on assets first.
Michael Zuber
Return on assets. So what would that be? Roughly? 12, 11 and a half. 12% probably.
Jack Kramer
And then return on equity?
Michael Zuber
Well, here's the truth, guys. I have no money in any of my deals today. I refi'd everything out.
Jack Kramer
Where is your money?
Michael Zuber
So the money that I put in as a down payment across our portfolio has already been refied out. So I have none of my own capital. And I already gave you the numbers 25 and 9. I have none of my original capital in that number.
Jack Kramer
So it's infinite returns.
Michael Zuber
It's a very nice number.
Graham Stephan
Do you think today's prices are more about land scarcity or just bad government policy?
Michael Zuber
Oh, government policy. I think what Nick Shirley and others have done, but he's the most recent, have shown fraud, waste and abuse is everywhere. NGOs are everywhere. I think I, you know, my personal guess is we're, we're losing 30% of our money to waste, fraud and abuse.
Graham Stephan
What do you think is a public policy that people think is compassionate but actually backfires?
Michael Zuber
Rent control, right? Rent control has never worked. In fact, there was a, I think he was a German economist once said the fastest way to destroy a city other than bombing it, is rent control.
Jack Kramer
Why is that?
Michael Zuber
Because you stop investment, you have no movement. You have a family move into a three bedroom, the kids move out, they don't leave. Then you have people coming up that can't get housing. Look at new York City. New York City's estimate has the largest rent control by quantity and like 20% of their units never get repaired because it's not economical to do it. So it just deteriorates.
Graham Stephan
Yeah, it's one of the policies that was the reason why I kept
Michael Zuber
one
Graham Stephan
of my properties completely empty because I knew once I rented it out, I wouldn't be able to ever sell it with a tenant in there.
Michael Zuber
Yeah, if you're in the wrong part. If you're in the wrong part of town, yeah.
Graham Stephan
There's even a triplex that I have and I've kept it. I've kept one of the units empty for seven months, another unit empty for five months just because it doesn't make sense to rent it out. And if I didn't have the rent control and I just had the freedom to say, hey, listen, you could live in here for a year, I'll give you a great price because otherwise it would be empty. But after a year I want to sell it. So I'll give you 60 days notice, you can live there for a year. You can't do that, which is so crazy that you lose control over your own property the second they move in. They have more rights than you do.
Michael Zuber
Louisiana county is a, probably one of the only counties in the country. If you gave me a house, I would sell it immediately. There's no way. It's communism.
Jack Kramer
So what places do you think investors should absolutely avoid and where should people be looking for ease of being a real estate investor and success again?
Michael Zuber
LA county is the most obvious one you should avoid. With the 10 foot pole, I think you should avoid most high priced cities. And I'll give you a list. San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, New York City. Because if you go to those, most of those markets you're betting on appreciation. And that's not who I am and that's not what I want you to be. I want you guys to have cash flow. So again, you're going to be in tertiary markets, you might be in the Midwest. Yeah, that's what I would do.
Graham Stephan
Is there any version of rent control that actually works?
Michael Zuber
I have not seen one. I've not seen one that works. I've read lots of studies.
Graham Stephan
Are there any policies that you think would just be a good idea to implement and it could be both for the landlord or the tenant?
Michael Zuber
One thing that intrigued me that I read last year and I don't know where it went, was trying to encourage ownership, almost like rent to own. I think it was Blackstone or somebody was doing that in one of their communities. I think finding a way to get tenants on the property ladder, it's got to be ethical. It can't be 5x or whatever, but if there's a way we can help people that are paying rent on time ultimately become owners of said property in eight years, I think that would be wonderful.
Graham Stephan
What do you think of the anti landlord movement?
Michael Zuber
I think it's an anti wealth movement.
Graham Stephan
You know what's crazy? I saw this post on Twitter and it keeps coming up over and over and over again. There's a landlord that had not gotten paid for like six months and he pulled up in front of the property and took a photo and the tenant just got a new E Class Mercedes and the landlord said, I can't believe it. This Tenant owes me $20,000 but just bought this new Mercedes. They've not been paying their rent. What's going on? And all the comments were like, good for the tenant.
Michael Zuber
Yeah. Anti Wealth Study and play come together on a Windows 11 PC and for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the unreal college deal everything you
Graham Stephan
need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft
Michael Zuber
365 Premium and a year of Xbox
Graham Stephan
Game Pass ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more@windows.com studentoffer while supplies last ends
Michael Zuber
June 30th terms at aka mscollegepc this
Jack Kramer
Father's Day do more with dad and spend less with low prices guaranteed at the Home Depot. Get him fired up with a new grill and accessories like the next Grill 5 burner for just $299 so you can spend more time together while he becomes the grill master he was always meant to be. Or build memories with savings on top brand power tools so you can tackle projects side by side, gift more and do more together. This Father's Day with help from the Home Depot. Exclusions of the see homekeeper.com price match for details.
Michael Zuber
This is where we are.
Graham Stephan
Why? Why do you think this is occurring to such a degree? Because Adam Carolla made a really good point. He was saying, you know, back when, at least when I was growing up, you'd see a guy driving down the road in a Ferrari and you would just think, oh man, if I work really hard one day and I save my money and I do something great, I could get that Ferrari. Yeah, but now it's like, oh, look at that douchebag in a Ferrari. I can't believe that person. Let's throw a rock at the Ferrari
Michael Zuber
I think of all the good things that social media has done, I think there's plenty of bad things. And probably the worst thing is they've created echo chambers where you just continually get fed the same nonsense. Because again, I sold machine learning, I sold AI products for a decade. And they're non thinking really, they're just giving you what you ask for. So if you're watching that content, you're going to watch more of that content and it just becomes this toxic state soup of negativity. I think one thing that too many people have lost is hope. If you don't have hope, none of this matters.
Jack Kramer
Dave Ramsey and you know what's so funny is that it's that exact philosophy that is keeping people just broke. Like if you don't think that you can do the right things and then the right things will come back to you, you're not going to do the things. You're just going to say, oh yeah, look at this person. They're a landlord. They probably were passed down wealth. It's like, hey guys, the studies show that that's not how most people become wealthy is because, oh, it was passed down generation to generation. All of a sudden you just live a nepo life. That's just not the reality of the situation. And if you think that that is, you're going to think, oh well, success is just out of my control. It's just the fact that I was born in the family I was born into. I live in the arrows I live in. I went to the school that I went to. None of this is possible for me. So instead I'm just going to leave hate comments and think that rich people are rich because of something they can't control.
Michael Zuber
Yeah, I can't help. If you have no hope, you're not even going to be in the game.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, you think that you're poor and like you think rich people are rich because of something they can't control and you're poor because of something you can't control.
Michael Zuber
Yeah.
Jack Kramer
It's like, hey, if that's the case, you're going to stay that way.
Michael Zuber
Yeah. If you don't have hope, you can't go anywhere. It's you can't play go, you're not going to be in the game. I actually use this analogy with some of my friends, right? You guys go to or you guys have been to sporting events, right. There are some people who live in the parking lot. All they want to do is drink beer and scream at the tv. They're not actually in the stands. And then there's people that are actually on the field. Too many people today are comfortable being in the parking lot, drinking and saying dumb shit. I want to be in the stands or even on the field. And, you know, I think most people are comfortable just saying, hey, it's Friday. Let's get drunk.
Graham Stephan
How important do you think it is, though, to really push yourself? Like, it seems like you're at a very comfortable point, but do you think that it might be a benefit to kind of put yourself, you know, against the wall a little bit more and force yourself to keep going?
Michael Zuber
So let's talk about that. So, again, I lived that life for 30 years. I had a sales quota every 90 days. I could be fired. I was obviously raising a family, trying to keep marriage happy, traveling 100,000 miles a year. So I lived that in more ways than not. And I just don't have to do that anymore. But I do reserve the right to start again. But again, dude, if you make 40 and you spend 14, and you're already spending the others on crazy trips, why.
Jack Kramer
But that's the difference, is that you're able to finally draw that line.
Michael Zuber
Correct.
Jack Kramer
Like, what is the difference in the thing that you're saying and the difference in the way that Graham feels.
Michael Zuber
So you two are a lot closer. I know Graham casually. My guess is he's going to always change the goalposts. Part of that's because you guys are around billionaires. Right. You guys are interviewing Mr. Wonderful and all these. So you're around people that I can not only dream of. So you're seeing these things. I'm not seeing them.
Graham Stephan
Right.
Michael Zuber
They're on TV for me. But, yeah, I mean. And again, dude, I was. He's only. You're 30. 31.
Graham Stephan
36.
Michael Zuber
36. Oh, damn.
Graham Stephan
Yeah, I know.
Michael Zuber
So, again, I didn't come to this until I was 51. Right. So, again, age has. Like, when you get to be 50, more than half your life's gone. I was a grinder, just like him. Different numbers, but same thing. I'm not going to judge anybody, but I do think, you know, I think he'll just move the number. He'll go from 50 to 100.
Graham Stephan
Well, I was. I was thinking, because I do a lot of research on the value of a dollar today and what it's worth.
Michael Zuber
Sure.
Graham Stephan
And I did this whole analysis with Grok.
Michael Zuber
Sure.
Graham Stephan
That said that the ages between 42 to 45, the optimal ages to start shifting from saving to spending, given your life expectancy.
Michael Zuber
Bill Perkins. Yeah.
Graham Stephan
Yeah. Given your life expectancy and overall health.
Michael Zuber
Yeah.
Graham Stephan
And then Starting in the mid-70s, your health significantly declines.
Michael Zuber
I've seen that.
Graham Stephan
Yeah. So it said that, you know, with compound interest, age 43 to 45, that's when you should shift from saving to spending.
Michael Zuber
I would love to see you because I don't know if this is true and it may have been taken out of context. I heard you spend 2% of your income.
Jack Kramer
No, he doesn't. I heard that on a Togi.5%.
Graham Stephan
Okay, well, no, no. 2% is what I base what I could spend.
Michael Zuber
On your income?
Jack Kramer
No, on his assets.
Graham Stephan
Oh, yeah. I talk. I don't look at income.
Jack Kramer
Income means income he doesn't spend any of, and he spends maybe 0.5% of his.
Graham Stephan
I don't spend any. No income. So my philosophy is this. If I make a hundred thousand dollars, okay, it's not 100 grand. All that is two grand a year in perpetuity forever. Maybe 2500 if we call, you know, two and a half percent of that. So the way I see it, every a hundred thousand, I make 2500 bucks a year. And that's what I mentally live off of.
Jack Kramer
But he doesn't actually, because that's still too much. Like, actually, how much like, you spend.
Graham Stephan
I don't need to.
Jack Kramer
You spend maybe 0.5%.
Graham Stephan
I don't. I don't like to spend the money now because I don't need to spend the money now. But I like the option.
Jack Kramer
You'll never need to spend that money. Like, realistically, it's whether you want to now or you want to later, it's
Graham Stephan
going to be a matter of what the issue. But according to Grok, it's better for me to wait until 42 to 45 to start drawing down.
Jack Kramer
But that's for most people that don't have the nest egg that you have. That's like telling the average. Like, are you really going to compare your financial situation to the average financial situation?
Graham Stephan
But it's invested and it could drop 50%. And so I also calculate the 50 drawdown.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, but there are studies that show 2.75 has never failed, even if you
Graham Stephan
did it at the beginning of the. Mentally. Mentally, it would be stressful for me if it drops 50%, because then I'd base it on, you know, the 50 value.
Jack Kramer
The way that I see it is this. Basically, if you were to encapsulate everything you just said mentally, if you can't handle it, then that suggests to me you are mentally very Fragile. And I think if you're going to
Graham Stephan
try to solve strong, if you're mentally very strong, if you have the fortitude not to be influenced by others opinions.
Michael Zuber
Yeah, there you go.
Jack Kramer
I actually disagree with that. I think that makes you mentally weak to not be willing to be challenged with a potentially stronger opinion.
Graham Stephan
Right. I could be challenged. Doesn't mean I'm going to, you know, fall to the, to someone else's opinion.
Jack Kramer
Well, you're, you can't choose whether or not you're being challenged. You're being challenged right now, whether you like it or not.
Michael Zuber
So.
Jack Kramer
But you can choose how you respond to better logic.
Michael Zuber
I'm open, I'm so, so complete outsider to this fun, entertaining conversation. I've already seen. Again, I'm an outsider, so maybe it's wrong, but I've seen Graham already start to loosen up. He's taken more trips than I remember him doing before.
Jack Kramer
Premium economy, too, dude.
Michael Zuber
Well, he's tiny, so he could fit
Jack Kramer
in coach, so it's easy for me.
Michael Zuber
Tiny. But I think he's already evolving. Now. Some of these numbers are just like, you know, it's kind of like Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett didn't need all that, but it was the game. He's playing the game.
Jack Kramer
Don't say that, man. Why would you compare him to Warren Buffett? That's like the worst thing that you
Michael Zuber
could have possibly said.
Jack Kramer
Compare him to Scrooge or whatever. Yeah, like, not Warren Buffett. Like, you have Mr. Burt, you have so many other comparisons and you pick Warren Buffett. The reason why he does this is because people, they say stuff like that. You have to say, hey, Graham, you know, like, the reality is everyone's going to say, jack, why are you telling Graham how to live his life? At the end of the day, I'm not doing that. And if you heard our private conversations, they don't necessarily go like that. I'm always very encouraging. Yeah. And saying like, Graham, I really wish that you would spend your money a little bit more on. On things that literally just improve the quality of your life. Like, if you want to go see a hockey game because your dad's in town, like, go.
Michael Zuber
Go to the hockey.
Jack Kramer
Oh, yeah, take your dad to the hockey.
Graham Stephan
This challenge. And the challenge was to spend a certain amount of money in a month. And so I created this budget where I had to spend it in 30 days.
Michael Zuber
Okay.
Graham Stephan
And I'm actually falling short of that. But I was able to take out family when they were in town. We saw a hockey game, We Went out to a few really nice dinners. And I gotta say, it was great. And just allocating that to the side of having to spend it gets rid of the, I don't want to call it like the, the hesitation of like, oh, I don't really need that, or we don't have to go there. We could get takeout instead.
Michael Zuber
Yeah.
Graham Stephan
And it helps.
Michael Zuber
You need to realize that you have done some amazing things and you have lots of rewards that are already raining down on you and more will come, but you also got to enjoy life. And if that's taking your family to a hockey game or spontaneously taking your wife to New York, or you've, you've, you've gotta, you've gotta have more experiences. It can't all be work. And it's not all about savings as well. So I've done some crazy trips. I did a six star cruise. It was 50 grand or whatever it was. And when you're on a cruise like that, it was less than 100 people. So it's, it's, it's a, it's a high end thing. You're around people that are worth 50 to 100 million easy. But almost all of them admitted that they worked too long. Think about that. You're worth nine figures. You're 80 years old. Your wife died. I remember a conversation with, I think his name was Mike or Mark. He's like, I told my wife we'd travel, but I just kept, kept, I just kept going for the next number. She gets cancer, she's out in six months. Then he quits and now he's traveling and he cries all the time because he's not with his wife. You just don't know what's coming. This number here, you should set some of that aside and just help people or go explore. Rain goodness on other people in your family. It will make you a happier person, I promise you.
Graham Stephan
What are the best things to spend money on?
Michael Zuber
Experiences, not stuff. It's not that rug that drives you crazy in your house. It's experiences. I would challenge you the next time you go to Japan. Fly business. There's nothing like lying flat.
Jack Kramer
Well, he's flown business before on someone else.
Michael Zuber
Okay.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, you. I don't know if you bought your
Graham Stephan
own business flights before. Yeah.
Jack Kramer
Oh, really?
Graham Stephan
ZipAir.
Jack Kramer
Okay, well, that counts as long as
Michael Zuber
you can lie flat.
Jack Kramer
But like, hear out Graham's perspective. He's like, yeah, so explain how just your justification goes into not wanting to fly business and the future
Graham Stephan
depends on the flight. I said if I can't sleep on the airplane.
Michael Zuber
Neither can I. No.
Graham Stephan
And when you're flying out in the morning, let's say 9am sure I'm not going to get any sleep on the plane anyway. So I think it's a waste to have a lie flat seat when I'm not going to be able to sleep and I'm just going to sit there and toss and turn. So I may as well save a few thousand dollars when I'm not going to be able to sleep. Now on the other hand, I think if it's an overnight like a red eye flight and you could get sleep on the airplane and wake up the next morning, then I think okay, I could look at the value of the next day and just say okay, then that's a good expense.
Michael Zuber
I would challenge you to change that. I would say any flight less than 3 hours economy plus whatever you want to be is fine. But anything over three hours is just a better seat. Even if you're not lying flat. It's just you're not crammed. You're not getting bumped into, you're not getting economy.
Graham Stephan
A premium economy is nice. Like those seats recline like I've traveled on every airplane. International premium economy, I thought is. I thought International premium economy is if
Michael Zuber
you don't fly business class 95% six hour flight, you're doing life wrong.
Jack Kramer
Where are you flying, how long is the flight and what are you flying?
Graham Stephan
It's 13 hours but it's broken up between two flights. Five hours and then seven.
Michael Zuber
With anybody or just Denmark?
Graham Stephan
Me and Macy. Let's go to Denmark.
Michael Zuber
If you ever fly anything less than business with your wife, I'm going to slap you.
Jack Kramer
You might need to slap them.
Graham Stephan
Already bought the flight, but maybe come back maybe.
Michael Zuber
I'm just saying going forward, this one doesn't count. Yeah, this one doesn't count. But again you have the ability to sprinkle little pieces of goodness on the people that you care about the most. That's what you should be thinking about. You should be surprising Macy with business class, right? Don't even tell her because she's probably thinking you're going to be in economy.
Graham Stephan
But then here's the thing. And then all of a sudden now that becomes the new like the minimum.
Jack Kramer
So what business.
Michael Zuber
So what?
Graham Stephan
Sometimes it's just a. It just feels like it's not a. It's just feels like you're wasting money. And then it just feels as though that's an irresponsible.
Michael Zuber
You need to declare. How many flights do you take a Year. Personal, not business. Not all that.
Graham Stephan
Not that many. Maybe three.
Michael Zuber
If you are taking three, any flight over six hours in those three. That's not business class. You're not being a good husband.
Jack Kramer
Why do you say that?
Michael Zuber
I'm trying to find an angle that will open them up to doing that.
Jack Kramer
I don't think that's the.
Michael Zuber
That's not the. I took a shot.
Jack Kramer
The point being, I want to see it as your friend. I think the quality of your life will be improved.
Michael Zuber
I agree.
Jack Kramer
Genuinely. And I've said this for years. And every single person that we bring on this podcast, whether they're an AI expert, whether they're an entrepreneur, whether it's Kevin o', Leary, whether it's Michael Zuber, whether it's Pace Morbi, whether it's Alex Hormozi, whether it's literally any single person here, Dave Ramsey, we all say the exact same thing. So tell me, what is it within your logical, driven brain, tell me what it is that makes you think that you could be right. And every single other person that's ever been on this podcast, not a single person has said your level of frugality is productive.
Graham Stephan
Because I'm happy.
Michael Zuber
Is your wife. Is your wife happy?
Graham Stephan
Yeah.
Michael Zuber
Okay.
Jack Kramer
If that's the case, then I can't. I have nothing to say against that. If that is the case, then I fully.
Michael Zuber
Yeah, but again, as somebody who's two decades older than you, almost two decades older than you, I will tell you, life gets short. And the things that you're going to miss is not the stuff, it's the experiences. And if you're taking three business class flights a year with your wife, and again, you guys are going to eventually have kids, and then that's going to dent the travel. Just make it more meaningful and more enjoyable. A six hour flight in business class is better than economy plus. You can't argue that it's better. Yes, it's more expensive, but that, that's. That doesn't matter to you, does. No, it doesn't.
Graham Stephan
It does.
Michael Zuber
No, it doesn't matter to you. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter to me. $8,000. So it certainly doesn't matter to you
Jack Kramer
if Graham is happy, then I have nothing to say.
Michael Zuber
No. Agreed.
Jack Kramer
If. If that is truly the case, I just question whether or not that is the case. But if you say it, and in your heart of hearts that is the case, I want to be happy, too. I will believe you. I'm just looking out for you.
Graham Stephan
And I would be happier with A grand and flying premium economy. Like, that would make me happier. Like, I just don't get that much more enjoyment.
Michael Zuber
Okay.
Graham Stephan
From the bigger seat.
Michael Zuber
Fair enough. If you're happy, Graham, that's all we want for you.
Jack Kramer
That's the most important thing.
Michael Zuber
Yes.
Jack Kramer
Now that we have excoriated you, what can we be improving on?
Graham Stephan
Both of you? Yeah, I don't think you can improve on it. Your speaking skills are great. I mean, maybe improve some title thumbnails in your channel. Like, instead of going live, just post videos without the live aspect as it cuts down on viewership.
Jack Kramer
Gosh, Jack, where to start? Oh, man, there's just so much.
Michael Zuber
How old are you again?
Jack Kramer
27.
Michael Zuber
Wow. My daughter's 35.
Graham Stephan
Wow.
Michael Zuber
34. Okay. All right.
Graham Stephan
For a while, I would say Jack would jump from thing to thing to thing to think to thing as a little scattered, like the real estate investing thing or like the options thing. And it's all these different things when, like, just the time would be better spent on the podcast.
Michael Zuber
Yeah. Yeah, you guys. Yeah, I would. I mean, I don't know what you were doing, but you guys have your. That was my answer for real estate is if it's going to take mind share away from this. You guys are the first inning of a 10 in a game.
Graham Stephan
Yeah.
Michael Zuber
Go, go nuts.
Graham Stephan
I guess sometimes my only. My only thought is that I wish we would go heavier on the podcast. Like, I'm always like, what do you mean?
Michael Zuber
What is the word? Heavier?
Graham Stephan
Like, drop everything. Like, the podcast is always, like, the number one. And for Jack, I don't think he's happy with. With that being, like, the number, like, above all else. I think he wants to do a week.
Jack Kramer
We do five a month.
Graham Stephan
Five a month.
Michael Zuber
So this counts as one. Yeah, you do five a month. Okay. Yeah, okay.
Graham Stephan
But I would like to see. Let's. Let's keep growing, expanding. Let's. Let's. Let's travel anywhere at the drop of a hat if we need to. I think Jack is a little more balanced now. Maybe that's a healthier approach.
Jack Kramer
I actually don't disagree with everything that he's saying. Like, I would say that my actions actually do go in accordance with drop everything in order to travel somewhere. We've had one experience over the past, however, and I was just really sick, which is the reason I was like, okay, well, like, I. Podcasting is like, yes, it's a means to an end, but it's also an enjoyable journey, and I want to make sure I'm enjoying the journey.
Michael Zuber
Where is this thing in a year. You guys have any idea?
Jack Kramer
Zootopia 2 has come home to Disney.
Michael Zuber
Let's go get ready for a new case.
Commercial Narrator
We're gonna crack this case and prove
Michael Zuber
we're the greatest partners of all time.
Jack Kramer
New friends you are Gary Destnik and your last name?
Michael Zuber
Desnake.
Jack Kramer
Dream Team Hidden new habitats Zoot.
Michael Zuber
Zootopia has a secret reptile population. You can watch the record breaking phenomenon at home. You're clearly working at. Zootopia 2 now available on Disney Plus. Rated PG.
Jack Kramer
Trading at Schwab is now powered by Ameritrade, bringing you an expanding library of education with even more ways to sharpen your trading skills. Access new online courses, insightful webcasts, articles, engaging videos and more, all curated just for traders. Plus guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests. No sifting to find exactly what you need so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading where do you want it to be?
Graham Stephan
My gosh. I would really like. I was a little worried about the five episodes a month and keeping the cadence on that without sacrificing quality. So far we've done a good job at that. Love to continue that, but I think there's so much more. Like in terms of Iced Coffee Hour membership content, I really feel like that's a huge expansion.
Michael Zuber
Do you have that today? Sorry, we do.
Graham Stephan
So we set up a membership where they get early access to every episode but a week early, it's the full uncut. Because sometimes for the main episodes we'll rearrange segments or we'll cut out something that we feel like is hurting retention
Michael Zuber
and how many folks are a part
Graham Stephan
of that now we have 1400 people.
Michael Zuber
Nice. Okay.
Graham Stephan
But I think that we could expand that. I want to do.
Michael Zuber
Do you have tiers?
Graham Stephan
Yeah, so we have two tiers. But I want to be able to also. Like we could do maybe a Q and A with you.
Michael Zuber
Yeah.
Graham Stephan
Or a dedicated members episode separate from this. Just like a Q and A. Or like a Jack and I episode a week. Like, I feel like there's so much more that we.
Michael Zuber
I would definitely suggest. I mean, maybe you do it your highest tier, whatever. But yeah, like doing one of these and then doing a Q and A. Yeah. If you want to try that with me, I'm. I'm game. Post this.
Graham Stephan
What I would. What I would really like to do is a live Q and A. Yeah, of course. So like, let's just say this episode posts on a Sunday and we could say, hey, guys, Wednesday.
Michael Zuber
Exactly.
Graham Stephan
For channel members, we're going live.
Michael Zuber
Yep.
Graham Stephan
You watch this episode, any questions you have, this is it.
Michael Zuber
If you want to test it, I'm in. Yeah, just give me, give me a week.
Jack Kramer
The problem is like those ideas hinge upon other ton of other things. I didn't know that that, like, that would complicate things. Whereas I would rather focus on just like overall exposure and growth. So like what that would look like is like better distribution of the podcast, more clips, more. Yeah, it's just stuff like that.
Michael Zuber
How many posts are you guys doing a day?
Jack Kramer
So many.
Graham Stephan
I don't even.
Michael Zuber
Dozens.
Jack Kramer
Okay. I mean, Twitter alone could be a dozen.
Michael Zuber
Okay. Yeah. All right.
Graham Stephan
It's a lot.
Michael Zuber
So, okay.
Graham Stephan
Stuff like this and then it's a conversation of, you know, what ends up happening is that we end up focusing really just on the core product, which is the podcast. But then I look back six months ago, I'm like, oh, if we had started this thing six months ago, we would have done this and this and this. So that's something that I think over the next two months we're going to start to see. As soon as we could get ahead. As soon as we have three episodes already done, edited, uploaded, with intro, like everything, then I think we have the breathing room to start saying, okay, here's how we could grow. So that's our next goal.
Michael Zuber
Both of you are, from where I'm sitting, have different ideas, but you guys are still moving forward together. That's cool. That's fun for me to watch.
Jack Kramer
Yeah. Fortunately, it's been one of. I mean, what's the only partnership I've ever had? And it's the easiest partnership I've ever had. Who knows, maybe I'll get another one. It'd be the most difficult one I've ever had. I promise it'll be worse. We've, we've been really lucky because I think at the end of the day, what makes it easy is that both Graham and I, surprisingly are pretty easy individuals. It's.
Graham Stephan
It's kind of weird.
Jack Kramer
It's. At this point, we've known each other for so long. Yesterday was a six year anniversary of the iced coffee hour and we had been working together for quite some time before that as well. So obviously we're very familiar with each. I've lived with the guy, unfortunately, I've
Graham Stephan
had that he would flush displeasure.
Jack Kramer
Yeah, I would flush after I peed and he would get upset and ask me if I could pay for each flush. And that is not a Joke. I kid you not. He will say it's a joke. He'll say it's a joke. He's not joking. He looked up the cost per flush in Santa Monica, 100 bucks on the
Michael Zuber
table, and said, go for it.
Graham Stephan
It's.
Jack Kramer
It's insane. But fortunately, above all else, it's become more of like, a sibling like relationship, which I think is what's displayed on camera. People say, oh, Jack and Grand. They're just constantly bickering and bantering. Yeah. And we do it off camera, maybe even worse. But we also travel together and we hang out and we do all of these things like brothers would. So think.
Michael Zuber
Anybody thinks you guys. Oh, yeah.
Jack Kramer
You'd be really. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Michael Zuber
Wow.
Graham Stephan
Also, we started this new business idea.
Michael Zuber
Okay.
Graham Stephan
So it's in the works right now. It's called extra$.com.
Michael Zuber
Okay.
Graham Stephan
And it's to optimize credit card rewards to give you reminders of things that expire. Like, for instance, the Amex Platinum, Dell credit, Uber credits, doordash credits, travel credits. Like, all these things that people forget about. It's going to be a good way to send out reminders. And then as a premium version, you're able to link your cards and track different rewards.
Michael Zuber
That's.
Graham Stephan
So that's the goal. We're working on it. And it's. It's open right now for people that want to sign up and just. We'll keep you posted when it launches, and then those people that sign up will be the first ones to be able to try it out.
Michael Zuber
Sure.
Graham Stephan
Make sure it's working properly, and then we'll roll it out over a bigger audience.
Michael Zuber
That's fun. So.
Graham Stephan
Because we realize, I think, you know, we want to do something outside of the iced coffee hour because it's so difficult with. With this business, is that if we travel for three weeks, everything basically grinds to a standstill.
Michael Zuber
Yeah.
Graham Stephan
And so it's either we have to, like, run to get ahead, and then we could just, like, coast, and then
Michael Zuber
you have to run to catch up. Yeah.
Graham Stephan
Like with Chris Camillo, we have to film with him and then post within a few days. Otherwise, like, what he says might be outdated.
Michael Zuber
Yeah.
Graham Stephan
And so it's. It worries me even then. It's like filming three weeks in advance. Like, so much could change in three weeks that even what we said today might be like, oh, maybe that's not as up to date. So we got to do something outside of the podcast for longevity.
Michael Zuber
Well, I have no doubt that you two guys will figure something out. You've proven time and time again to, to continually think iterate and you're not afraid, afraid to flush bad ideas. Right. You give them a shot. Some are bad to flush a little bit. Yeah.
Jack Kramer
Apparently a penny.
Michael Zuber
Yeah. I'll give you 20 bucks on the way out. So he's got him covered. But yeah, it's. No, I think you guys are onto something. Keep, keep innovating, keep getting creative, keep just, you know, getting around the right people. Part of it, part of getting in life is being in proximity. Right. You guys have the, the ability to be around some amazing people. So hopefully that rubs off and you know, gives you even bigger, bigger possibilities. Yeah.
Jack Kramer
Michael, thank you so much for coming on the podcast, guys. Thank you so much for watching. If you want any more information, you want to learn more about real estate, I highly recommend you tune into the lives. All of that information will be linked down below in the description where you can also find extra $, where you can also find the index, Graham's group, where you can also find probably other things as well.
Graham Stephan
Everything is down below in the description.
Jack Kramer
Yeah. Subscribe like. Thank you so much for watching. Thank you, thank you for coming on the podcast.
Michael Zuber
Take care.
Jack Kramer
Till next time. See ya.
"This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber"
Date: June 7, 2026
Hosts: Graham Stephan & Jack Kramer
Guest: Michael Zuber (Real estate investor, author, and economist)
This episode dives into the current state and future of the U.S. housing market with Michael Zuber, a seasoned real estate investor with over 167 units and $25M in real estate assets. Zuber shares data-driven insights on home prices, the dynamics of property transactions, cycles in real estate, and key strategies for aspiring investors. The episode emphasizes the importance of disciplined research, the realities of success in real estate, and practical personal finance advice for both investors and everyday listeners. The conversation is candid, analytical, and peppered with memorable stories and zingers about wealth, happiness, and long-term thinking.
2026 is a brutal year:
Home price predictions:
Transactions, not prices, crash:
1978–82 rate hikes:
1980s/2000s cycles vs. now:
Motivated sellers are essential for price drops:
Geographic exceptions:
Debunking the 18-year real estate cycle:
Wages drive recovery:
Why transactions matter:
Be patient, disciplined, creative:
You don’t have to buy a home:
Renting vs. buying:
On moving goalposts:
Contentment and spending:
Lifestyle deflation and social pressure:
Need for entry-level housing:
Land and regulation, not scarcity:
Rent control as a disaster:
Anti-landlord sentiment = anti-wealth:
"You make your money when you buy."
(Michael Zuber, 10:53)
"Live below your means. Become elite at something. Do it for a decade."
(32:18–33:27)
"If you want to get wealthy, get healthy."
(62:15; 63:00)
"Cycles go up and they go down. People always think [it] is going to go up, but that’s not how cycles work."
(67:10)
Graham’s financial philosophy:
"If I make a hundred thousand dollars... that's two grand a year in perpetuity forever... I don't spend any income."
(85:28)
Zuber’s happiness formula:
"I can do anything I want, when I want, with whom I want. And that's pretty amazing."
(33:50)
This episode delivers a nuanced, sober analysis of real estate in America. Michael Zuber debunks myths, emphasizes the importance of patience, and urges listeners to focus on process and discipline over speculation and hype. While he provides concrete advice for those wanting to break into or thrive in real estate, he also broadens the conversation to touch on lasting wealth, happiness, financial independence, and the importance of self-awareness and life balance.
If you’re frustrated with unaffordable housing, worried about buying in the “wrong” time, or unsure if wealth is within reach, Zuber’s takeaway is simple (yet hard):
Sacrifice, specialize, persevere, and remember why you’re doing it in the first place—so you can enjoy more life, not just more money.