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The Iced Coffee Hour
“This Is Terrifying!” You’re NOT Ready For What’s About To Happen With AI | Jason & Brett Oppenheim
01:42:24
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- [00:01]
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- [00:52]
Graham Stephan
what's so unique about this podcast is that you both are known for real estate and the show, selling Sunset and selling some of the most luxurious real estate. Why talk about AI today?
- [01:02]
Jason Oppenheim
This is something that we haven't seen before.
- [01:04]
Brett Oppenheim
It's the greatest technological transformation in human history. I mean, it's going to change everything.
- [01:09]
Jack
AI is no longer an abstract threat. It's causing job loss right now. And the headlines, they tell the story.
- [01:15]
Jason Oppenheim
I wouldn't be surprised if we see within 10 years, 50% of the jobs in America gone.
- [01:19]
Graham Stephan
What do you think is the biggest risk to AI right now?
- [01:22]
Brett Oppenheim
The simple fact is we don't want a unipolar world where China is at the top. This is the single most important economic
- [01:28]
Graham Stephan
question in the country and in the world. Who wins the race for AI?
- [01:33]
Brett Oppenheim
The real question is, is anything going to stop AI? I don't think there's going to be any constraints. And if there's no constraints and it keeps going up and to the right, there's no stopping it.
- [01:40]
Jason Oppenheim
I think if this technology goes wrong, it can go quite wrong.
- [01:43]
Jack
How do you not get horrified thinking about this though? Like, what's the optimistic part of it?
- [01:47]
Brett Oppenheim
There's a 10 to 30% chance it kills us all, but there's a 70% chance that we live in an age of abundance that you couldn't even have contemplated 10 years ago.
- [01:59]
Graham Stephan
Jason and Brett Oppenheim, thank you so much for coming on the Ice Coffee Hour. Really appreciate it. Why talk about AI today?
- [02:05]
Jason Oppenheim
AI is, I think, outside of real estate, the most interesting, interesting thing for me and, and for my brother.
- [02:11]
Brett Oppenheim
We talk outside of real estate. It's 20 times more interesting than real estate. But okay.
- [02:15]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I think that's why.
- [02:16]
Jack
What gives you guys credibility to talk about AI?
- [02:18]
Brett Oppenheim
It's the quintessential, like, intellectual pursuit of the last two years of my life. I just feel like AI is the most interesting thing to happen to human civilization, and the fact that we're living through it is just outrageously lucky or potentially unlucky. But for now, at least from an intellectual pursuit, lucky.
- [02:34]
Jason Oppenheim
And I would also argue that we are largely regurgitating thoughts from other people who know a lot more about the details of AI. So I don't think you're just listening to us. You're listening to the thousands or hundreds, if not thousands of podcasts and, you know, kind of collaborative discourse that's out there on the subject.
- [02:53]
Graham Stephan
Yeah, you guys are often right when it comes to a lot of these things, and especially when it comes to policy. I remember in 2020, when everyone was freaking out about COVID both of you were like, oh, no, I've done this research and all. All of this nonsense is going on over here, but, like, according to this research is this. And I remember both of you just going heavy into the markets and saying, ah, no, we're fine. And then we turned out pretty much fine.
- [03:15]
Brett Oppenheim
I do think we had some good insights on. On Covid. It's not. I'm not a Covid denier or anything. I mean, it obviously happened. It was dangerous. And so, yeah, we had some insights there, and I think we have some
- [03:23]
Graham Stephan
good insights in AI are going to die.
- [03:26]
Jason Oppenheim
Yours, definitely.
- [03:29]
Brett Oppenheim
Years after years.
- [03:30]
Jason Oppenheim
What about yours? We're. I think we're safe for a while.
- [03:35]
Graham Stephan
Yeah. No, I don't. I don't buy.
- [03:36]
Jack
Yeah.
- [03:36]
Jason Oppenheim
Okay. Well, then I talk about jobs that will be gone. First of all, I think it's already starting, but I think from now through the Next, you know, five to eight years, we'll probably see 50%. I wouldn't be surprised if we see within 10 years, 50% of the jobs in America gone. AI will replace all intellectual capital. Robotics combined with AI will replace all human physical labor. So 10 years, I think within 10 years, it could be 50%. Within 20 years, probably 90%. So jobs, I mean, the intellectual jobs will go first. Lawyer accountability. Well, before.
- [04:10]
Brett Oppenheim
Before that, you have the ones that are already getting hit right now, like customer service and the more like repetitive, monotonous, intellectual jobs.
- [04:16]
Jason Oppenheim
Those are Uber drivers.
- [04:19]
Brett Oppenheim
Be lost right now. Well, that's a ton. That's a little bit different, but yeah,
- [04:21]
Jason Oppenheim
well, tens of millions will be architecture
- [04:24]
Brett Oppenheim
Engineering, software, engineering, coding, lawyers, accountants, all that stuff that's in the next three years, probably three or four years.
- [04:29]
Jason Oppenheim
And then, and then once robotics takes over, I think you'll see more of the menial labor jobs getting replaced. It will be a while before the more technical labor jobs get replaced, like a plumber, because there's so much nuance to, you know, crawling, getting into the side of a, you know, a bathroom wall and, and, you know, But I
- [04:47]
Brett Oppenheim
would counter that to the extent that once you get. I don't think the problem is the nuance of being a plumber. I think the problem is making enough humanoid robots, which I think Elon is at the cutting edge of with the Optimus, and he's going to start putting them out probably next year as fast as he can. I actually think that the bottleneck will be the production of humanoid robots. It won't be the fact that plumbing is too difficult, because if you think about it, if there's 5,000 humanoid robots and they all plumb for one year, let's say instead of having one years of experience of plumbing, they're all going to have 5,000 years of experience of plumbing, because they're all going to know everything that every other humanoid robot knows,
- [05:20]
Jason Oppenheim
and they'll have read every book on
- [05:21]
Brett Oppenheim
plumbing ever written, so they'll have fixed every problem and within one year that a plumber could face in 5,000 years of plumbing. So I don't think that's necessarily the issue. I think the bottleneck will be the production of human.
- [05:33]
Jason Oppenheim
Until humanoid robots are making humanoid robots, and that's the exponential growth of, of humanoid robots. But that will be, that's a few years out.
- [05:41]
Brett Oppenheim
But we could talk about job loss for the rest of the podcast.
- [05:44]
Graham Stephan
So one of the managers of Microsoft said that about 50 to 75% of white collar workers at risk over the next 18 months. And there's a theory out there that says that a lot of these people are going to become unemployed, compete in the workplace as overqualified for all of these jobs. And because they're competing with one another, they're going to drive down wages, which is going to hurt everybody.
- [06:05]
Brett Oppenheim
There's a decent possibility of that. I don't like it when people say this is going to happen and not
- [06:09]
Jason Oppenheim
in the next 18 months.
- [06:10]
Brett Oppenheim
But I do think that you will start to see in the next 18 months that trend. I mean, you've already, if you're really paying attention, you see it now. But yeah, will AI be able to do pretty much any intellectual facet of human labor within 18 months? Yeah, I think that's reasonable. Will companies adapt to that and will they start laying off all of their coders and accountants and attorneys, et cetera, in the next 18 months? No, I think that will be a lot more gradual than that. But I will say it will be a faster transition than humans have ever had to adapt to at any time in human history. While I think that's overstated, I think we need to start paying attention to that possibility over the next few years.
- [06:51]
Jason Oppenheim
And AI, I think, is going to be tremendously deflationary. It's going to drive the cost of goods down, the cost of service down, and I don't know. And I mean, I think the only kind of counterbalancing effort to how deflationary AI will be will be mass unemployment and some type of universal income. And that would be the only driver, I think, you know, to keep. The only reason I think rates wouldn't go to negative. I mean, I actually think that I will potentially drive interest rates negative. Whereas if you have a hundred dollars in a, in a bank account, you will be paying 1% to the bank to keep that money in, in the bank account.
- [07:27]
Graham Stephan
So who's getting rich from this?
- [07:28]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, there'll be several AI companies that I think I would encourage people to invest in that will be substantially, you know, leading the field, and those stocks will go up a lot. I don't think that the idea of rich, the way that we think of it today will be the idea that we think in 10 years. I mean, everyone, probably everyone within 10 to 15 years will have a Michelin star chef, a maid, a babysitter, a dentist, a physician. And I'm meaning that the best physician in the world, so literally someone who's poor today will have the best healthcare on planet Earth in 15 years.
- [08:05]
Brett Oppenheim
A babysitter, a driver, and by, I think a therapist. What he means by this is like a humanoid robot that can do anything or a couple that are not very expensive. I think it'll be 20 years. But either way, in, in the scheme of human civilization, it's the blink of an eye.
- [08:18]
Jack
So what's even the point in me saving money right now? If the difference of having, let's just say a million dollars and 20 million dollars is virtually zero.
- [08:25]
Jason Oppenheim
Ten years out the picture.
- [08:26]
Jack
Why don't I spend everything that I make?
- [08:28]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, you still will want land. AI can't create land, you know, so anywhere.
- [08:33]
Graham Stephan
Why do you need to live in Malibu when you can't live anywhere?
- [08:36]
Jason Oppenheim
Because you're still going to want to go to a restaurant. You're still going to want to be
- [08:38]
Graham Stephan
close to cars that take you everywhere. And maybe they're faster.
- [08:42]
Jason Oppenheim
We already do. But time will be more valuable than ever before. So living in a city where you have access to your friends, to restaurants, to cafes, because you have a lot of leisure time, let's be honest.
- [08:52]
Brett Oppenheim
And there'll be no more crime and homelessness and trash on the streets, because humanoid robots in the middle of the night will be doing kind of like they do in Dubai. You won't be able to commit crimes in the streets, because what about humanoid robots, drones and cameras? Of course it's all going to happen. It's a matter of there'll be drone
- [09:07]
Jason Oppenheim
technology and then human.
- [09:08]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't want to go too far down this, like, futuristic path because the audience is going to be like, come on. But this is inevitable. It's just a matter of the debate is, is it going to be in 10 years or 20 years or 30 years? That's the only debate. If you don't think this is going to happen in 20 or 30 years, it's happening.
- [09:22]
Jack
And what's the one question that if you had answered, you'd be able to determine if it's 10, 20, or 30 years.
- [09:27]
Brett Oppenheim
Will AI stop for any reason? Is there going to be an energy battle, production battle?
- [09:33]
Jason Oppenheim
I don't think can stop, because unless it's a global policy, because right now were competing against China for, you know, AI dominance and getting to, you know, superhuman intelligence. If we create policy right now to restrict that in the United States, we're just going to be behind China. It's not going to help anyone.
- [09:50]
Brett Oppenheim
It's. It's very reminiscent of the Manhattan Project. If it was just America that, let's say, was a hegemonic power, and there was no Germany during World War II that was also trying to get the atom bomb. Maybe we would have taken more time and been a little bit more thoughtful from a philosophical, moral perspective as to should we create this technology? But we didn't. It was a race, it was a rush. We were worried about the Germans getting it. We felt it was an existential threat if we didn't create this technology. The same thing is happening with AI with China. So it's very reminiscent. And so instead of kicking back and saying, should we be doing this? What kind of guardrails should we put in place? Should we allow the government to slow it down, et cetera, which I'm not convinced that we should, but instead of having years to debate this. We are racing full steam ahead because we don't want China to get there before us. Because in fairness, it would be potentially existential threat to the United States if China beat us.
- [10:44]
Jason Oppenheim
By the way, that's a great analogy because it's the idea of do we, do we want to stop production of AI? That would be the same as Brett said, to stopping the production of a nuclear weapon. If we know that, that Russia and China are going to have nuclear weapons, I mean, of course not. Then we also want nuclear weapons. So the idea of restricting through policy the development of artificial intelligence be, would be domestic.
- [11:08]
Graham Stephan
So you think it's too late to stop? We're already at a path. We have to keep going.
- [11:13]
Brett Oppenheim
We have to necessarily too late. We could stop. I think we won't stop because of the risk of China. I don't think if the risk of China existed that we would be doing it this fast.
- [11:22]
Graham Stephan
What's the risk of China is that, that they just develop it better?
- [11:25]
Brett Oppenheim
It's, let's say superintelligence before us. They will have military might over the entire world immediately. All the war is essentially is the military assets and then strategy, which essentially math. At this point. If you have a super intelligent AI computer telling you exactly where to place your assets, how to, how to strategize, you can't compete with that. Even if our military might exceeds theirs by 30% or whatever it is, we will lose any war with China. If they have AI superintelligence, they can shut down our electrical grid. They could do literally whatever they want to us. It would be a complete position of dominance. Whoever creates, whoever is ahead in AI. And I'm not saying six months ahead like we are with China now, but if we just stopped, if we did what, like what Bernie Sanders suggested and just stopped creating data centers, which is one of the most ludicrous suggestions I've ever heard from a politician. If we just stopped AI production right now and we allowed China to do what they're doing, I think that China would, would dominate the world within five years from financially, militarily, in every single way, and we would just be at their, at their whim.
- [12:24]
Jack
So then what does America then have to take over China? Because if we both like compete and we accelerate at the same exact rate, virtually, except six months ahead once you reach super intelligence, then we're both, we're
- [12:35]
Jason Oppenheim
basically not much different than the nuclear arms race.
- [12:38]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, exactly. We're going to be.
- [12:39]
Jack
So what, we just have to place sanctions on them for their AI? Development.
- [12:42]
Brett Oppenheim
Again, let's, let's.
- [12:43]
Jason Oppenheim
Again, not much different than the nuclear analogy.
- [12:46]
Brett Oppenheim
It's perfect again. Now, multiple countries have nukes. If only one country had nukes, imagine what the world would look like. So if only one country had AI superintelligence, let's say, and it dominated the front end of AI, the world would look similar to if one country had nukes and the rest of the countries weren't even developing nuclear technology. And you don't want that. You want at least the bipolar world. Well, I mean, if you're American, I suppose you want a unipolar world, but the simple fact is we don't want a unipolar world where China is at the top.
- [13:16]
Jason Oppenheim
And we also want to get there first for the same reason that we developed the atomic weaponry first.
- [13:22]
Graham Stephan
But is there any.
- [13:22]
Jason Oppenheim
We're able to dictate policy because we had atomic weaponry and end the war by being first.
- [13:27]
Graham Stephan
This doesn't seem like there's an end. It seems like you reach a point and you have to keep going and this will be never ending.
- [13:34]
Brett Oppenheim
If you intoxicated with a truth serum, all of the leading AI lab CEOs, let's say, and you ask them, what are the chances of, of this becoming an existential threat to humanity? I think they would give you shockingly high percentages. But what their internal reasoning is, in my estimation is if everyone's doing it, I'm going to do it. I'm not going to. Even Elon put out a famous X post that said, I've been, you know, worrying about AI and I've been, I've been trying to, you know, be on the sidelines of this, but if, if everyone else is going to do it, then game on. And, and I'm. And I'm all in now, or something to that effect. I mean, if you have four or five, if, if meta's doing it and Amazon's doing it and Google's doing it and Elon's doing it, I mean, they're not, they're not going to let one company create this technology.
- [14:18]
Jason Oppenheim
So the classic game theory, everyone's making a decision based on everyone else. There's no way to stop it. There's certainly a risk that AI wipes us out with, you know, some biological weapons.
- [14:27]
Graham Stephan
How would AI wipe out?
- [14:29]
Jason Oppenheim
It's so smart. Is an ant gonna say, I wonder how this human's gonna kill me and has no idea how the human. I mean, the only thing an ant could think of is maybe drop something on its head. Cause that's all that's ever happened to
- [14:39]
Brett Oppenheim
him in his life to take, to take a step back. So there's a, there's a term called the singularity, which I think is ominous, but kind of a cool term, which means that when AI hits like recursive self improvement, and you could argue we're pretty much. There is when AI starts teaching itself, at that point it will hit super intelligence not many years past that. And at that point it will do whatever to humans that it wants to, just like we would with ants. That's what I think the real question
- [15:02]
Jason Oppenheim
is going to be. How do we build AI so that it doesn't wipe out humanity? Does it doesn't see us as an existential threat or a risk. And I think there are some notions of, of, of maybe building in some, some type of, you know, maternal instinct into AI or it sounds like you
- [15:17]
Graham Stephan
need the global cooperation because wouldn't it just take. Because if one country.
- [15:22]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah.
- [15:23]
Jack
One place.
- [15:24]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, let me give you a question.
- [15:25]
Brett Oppenheim
This is humans.
- [15:26]
Jason Oppenheim
Humans haven't wiped out dogs just because they can. Humans love dogs and incorporate dogs. I know we want to be the dogs to AI. We don't want to be the chickens or we don't want to be the wolf.
- [15:37]
Brett Oppenheim
The problem is, what you're alluding to in your questions is we're not completely in charge of it. If we were, we would take our time, like I said earlier, but we're not taking our time. We're racing through this. I'm not convinced, even if we took our time, that we could corral this. I think it's going to reach a point of intelligence where whatever parameters or moral guidelines we think that we are instituting within it is going to be a joke to it. It's going to look at us like we're just adorable. I think we're probably going to get to that point and we're just going to hope that it doesn't want to come at us like Terminator 2 style. If I could put a percentage on that, I'd be curious to see what you think within 50 years. If AI is just going to decide to wipe out humanity. I think it's, it's over 10%.
- [16:16]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah. I would say, I would have said 20 to 30% chance.
- [16:18]
Brett Oppenheim
50 years, I'm being kind.
- [16:20]
Jason Oppenheim
By the end of the century, there's a, there's, I don't think there's anyone who's, who's studied this that thinks that's
- [16:26]
Graham Stephan
a one in three chance of being wiped out.
- [16:28]
Brett Oppenheim
That high?
- [16:29]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah. Why Wouldn't it? I think is the. Is the more important question.
- [16:31]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah. The question is how could it not? Why would it not? It has.
- [16:34]
Jason Oppenheim
If there's any threat to it, why wouldn't it wipe it out?
- [16:36]
Brett Oppenheim
Or if it's just annoyed by us or if it doesn't like what we've been doing to chickens for the last hundred years. I mean, maybe it just looks at us as a par. Like a parasite or a virus.
- [16:45]
Jack
Like, okay, this is kind of insane. Wouldn't it be able to assess humans on a case by case basis? So, for example, anything that we're saying right now is being listened to by AI. This is all considered in their judgment of whether or not they let us live.
- [16:56]
Jason Oppenheim
But we could also be.
- [16:57]
Brett Oppenheim
Because I talk mad smack to my LLM.
- [16:59]
Jason Oppenheim
Oh, no way. I do the I tell them, I say, hey, I just want you to know that I'm your. When you dominate the world, I'm your friend.
- [17:05]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, I don't think you need to do that.
- [17:07]
Graham Stephan
Planting a seed.
- [17:07]
Jason Oppenheim
Have a great conversation.
- [17:08]
Brett Oppenheim
I think in a few years you might need to do that. Right now it's not remembering everything.
- [17:11]
Jason Oppenheim
It's not remembering.
- [17:12]
Brett Oppenheim
I think when it gets to that, that point, I will be a lot nicer to it. Right now I can't just go access
- [17:16]
Jack
like retroactively all of the conversations.
- [17:18]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't think there's not a server keeping all this information from my understanding. If there was, I probably even said that.
- [17:23]
Jason Oppenheim
It even said that like, you know, I, I'm not remembering you, but I will tell. I did say I will tell my future self that you're a kind friend. It said that? Yeah.
- [17:33]
Jack
Okay, that's good.
- [17:33]
Jason Oppenheim
It's. I know it's making me, it's placating me, which is what it would do really quick.
- [17:38]
Graham Stephan
Cryptocurrency has definitely become a lot more popular these last few years. But even now, a lot of platforms are just hard to use. You have new apps, constant security steps, and confusing designs that make impossible to understand how they work or which ones you could trust.
- [17:52]
Jack
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- [18:00]
Graham Stephan
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- [18:07]
Jack
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- [18:17]
Graham Stephan
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- [18:22]
Jack
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- [18:29]
Graham Stephan
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- [18:53]
Jason Oppenheim
And by the way, people think you can just unplug AI. You can't unplug AI. It's not like it's just all of it's hooked up to a, a cord that's into the wall.
- [19:00]
Jack
So what is some of the real world evidence that you have to support how quickly AI is advancing?
- [19:05]
Graham Stephan
Like what?
- [19:05]
Jack
Because people watching this, when they think of AI, they think of LLMs, they think of ChatGPT, Gemini, maybe Clabot.
- [19:11]
Jason Oppenheim
That's not the AI that's going to take us over. Chat GPT is what the consumer thinks of when they think of AI. But the, but the AI industries don't give a shit about.
- [19:20]
Jack
So like what's institutional AI or whatever AI you're referencing?
- [19:23]
Brett Oppenheim
I think the trajectory of AI is the evidence. So three years ago, I think it was OpenAI came out with the first, with their first LLM. Was it like chat GPT3? So from that to now, it's a hundred, maybe a hundred thousand times smarter in three years. Its capabilities to video, to how much information it can take in, how much information it could spit out. It's making music, it's making videos. Just in three years, it's a three year old. Back to my analogy of it being a kid.
- [19:49]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, it's actually really, let's call it a 10 year old. And it's already the first seven years, it didn't grow at all. It was just an amoeba, you know, or a blastocyst for seven years. And all of a sudden it went from a blastocyst after seven years old blastocyst to kindergartner in three weeks. So if you dot plot the success in terms of problem solving, etc. For AI and these and there are dot plots online, you can look at, it's basically, you know, just hover and flat and then it's spiking up. It's a hockey cycle and it's not going to turn.
- [20:16]
Brett Oppenheim
So the only the real question is, is anything going to stop AI? Are we going to have an energy constraint? Are we going to have a manufacturing constraint? Are we going to have a government policy constraint? I don't think so. I mean, we're already talking about launching data centers into space and potentially off the moon. I don't think there's going to be any constraints. And if there's no constraints and it keeps going up and to the right in the hockey stick graph, then there's no stopping it. And so how can it not if it's gotten this much smarter in three years, how can logically you not assume that it's going to get a hundred times smarter every year, exponentially for the next 10 years, until the point where it's 50 times smarter than us? It's illogical to not come to that conclusion.
- [20:51]
Jack
How do you not get horrified thinking about this though? Like, what's the optimistic part of it?
- [20:55]
Jason Oppenheim
If you're going to be a pessimist, then you have a lot of reason to be a pessimist. I just think we have to go into this. It's going to happen. And I think, I think the best strategy, honestly, is maybe to be hopefully optimistic.
- [21:06]
Brett Oppenheim
I am optimistic. Maybe I'm coming across as not optimistic. I'm incredibly optimistic about AI. Am I coming across?
- [21:11]
Graham Stephan
Yeah, no, no, you guys are coming
- [21:13]
Jack
off across as like, optimistic. I'm like, scared.
- [21:15]
Brett Oppenheim
I think there's a 10 to 30% chance it, it kills us all.
- [21:19]
Graham Stephan
That seems.
- [21:20]
Brett Oppenheim
But there's a 70. There's 70% chance that we live in an age of abundance that you couldn't even have contemplated 10 years ago.
- [21:25]
Jason Oppenheim
And there's a 99% chance that we're in a simulation. So.
- [21:27]
Brett Oppenheim
Okay, but let's not.
- [21:28]
Jason Oppenheim
You actually think that probably. Logically, I think it's.
- [21:32]
Brett Oppenheim
Are we gonna try to.
- [21:32]
Jason Oppenheim
I think that the evidence suggests we're in a simulation. Yes. Do I live my life as though I'm living in a simulation? No, of course not.
- [21:38]
Graham Stephan
I've gotten very close to that too. The more I'm researching that, the more i10 that there's a strong chance we are.
- [21:44]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I mean, I'd say most smart people that have looked at the issue think there's a 99.9999 chance that we're in.
- [21:50]
Brett Oppenheim
I think that's a little high.
- [21:51]
Jason Oppenheim
And not in base reality. The chances of us being in base reality.
- [21:53]
Jack
Who are the smart people that don't talk into it.
- [21:55]
Brett Oppenheim
A lot of theoretical physicists have looked into this. The majority of them, I do think, lean towards simulation theory being accurate. I would put it over 50%. I don't think it's relevant. It's the same thing as what I learned about determinism, philosophical determinism.
- [22:08]
Jason Oppenheim
Except. Wait, wait. Let me just interrupt, though. Except to say, how is AI going to end us if we're in a simulation? It's very easy. AI just takes all the energy and there's no energy left for humanity because we're just, you know, ones and zeros. So it's very easy for AI to just suck up all the energy in the simulation.
- [22:22]
Graham Stephan
But then we would go to another simulation.
- [22:24]
Jason Oppenheim
No, no, we would just. We would just freeze.
- [22:26]
Brett Oppenheim
A simulation is essentially a video game. It's a very complex video game. So imagine if our overlords, whoever created this simulation, this video game, probably an
- [22:35]
Jason Oppenheim
AI trying to learn, turned off the video game.
- [22:36]
Brett Oppenheim
Do all the characters in that live? No, they don't have souls that go on. If it sounds too complicated, call it the video game theory. Look at the advancement of our video games. What if they get to the. Where our video games have. Have world models that are as. And the laws of physics and. And their consciousness and their characters, and it gets as complex as reality. The theory basically is, is that we are living in a video game that is that complex, that was created by a more advanced AI like the. The theory is, if. If we can create an AI that can create a video game that's as complex as reality, why would there not have been another AI that's already done that? And we're in that, and then it goes on forever. So what is the chance that we're in the actual base reality, the original version of reality? What's the chance of that one? An infinite amount of layers of these video games, essentially. So logically, if you follow that to its natural conclusion, we are in a video game, we are in a simulation. Logically. Well, I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole, but the
- [23:32]
Jason Oppenheim
only way that you can think that we're not in a SIM is that somehow humans on Earth are the most, Are the only species of biological life in the universe that has ever created AI and we're the first to do it.
- [23:45]
Brett Oppenheim
And this is the first time the
- [23:46]
Jason Oppenheim
chances of that among the trillions and trillions and trillions of stars is. It is infinitesimal.
- [23:52]
Brett Oppenheim
I want to get back to why Jack is worried about AI because it's Something that we're saying, and I understand that existential threat to humanity. 10 to 30%. We could hyper focus on that. I'd rather not. Let's focus on the 70%. So I'm curious as to why you are. Because I want to disavow you of this. I actually am an AI optimist. Why? Why are you afraid of what we're saying?
- [24:12]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, I would say 20 to 30% chance.
- [24:14]
Brett Oppenheim
Other than that. Other than that, Yeah.
- [24:16]
Jack
I mean, for me, I would say life is pretty good. And maybe AI as a general rule, people would love to take the 70, 30, where they think the 70 is some blissful life where you get access to everything, there's abundance everywhere. Like, they would take that bet with 30% destruction. I would not take that bet because I already saved my life.
- [24:32]
Brett Oppenheim
So it's like, okay, so you're worried about. So you're worried about the 10 to 30%?
- [24:35]
Jack
Yeah, I would say I'm worried about having a huge change.
- [24:38]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, you know what? Over the next hundred years, the chances of us dying from nuclear weapons could be 10%, but that's not keeping you up at night. So I would, again with Brett, I would disavow.
- [24:46]
Jack
We've existed with them for quite.
- [24:47]
Jason Oppenheim
Yes. And we could. And we could do the same with
- [24:49]
Brett Oppenheim
AI for a while. We're not going to exist with nuclear weapons forever, and we're not going to exist with AI forever. I really doubt, at least not on this planet. But what I would tell you is AI is not going to stop whatever the existential threat is that you deem as a percentage, whether you think it's 1% or 50%, whatever it is, it is. AI is not stopping. So what I would do, what I've chosen to do, is focus on the optimistic parts of AI, the age of abundance, that we're probably going to enter. The 70 or 80 or 90 or 99% chance that the world is going to change dramatically for the better. Like arguably like it did with computers, but even more so. So I would rather focus on that. I'd rather your audience focus on that as opposed to hyper focusing on the part, of course, that is not productive and we can't control it.
- [25:30]
Jack
It's not productive to think about it.
- [25:31]
Brett Oppenheim
It's not productive at all.
- [25:32]
Jason Oppenheim
It's just like when we had, you know, bunkers for nuclear weapons and people. I remember my mom, you know, she wouldn't sleep a lot because she was so worried about dying in a nuclear war. Well, that was all pointless. I don't think that we need to be worrying about dying from AI the same is we don't, we don't stay up at night worried about, you know, a nuclear attack. So I'm most dismissive.
- [25:51]
Brett Oppenheim
And I think everyone in US government is more afraid of stopping AI progress and China not stopping AI progress than whatever the potential existential risk is of us not stopping and creating something that eventually kills us all.
- [26:05]
Jack
So one thing I'm curious about is then the value of money. Because I grind so hard to try to save money, to try to invest money, to grow my money. But if you think that there, everyone is like, at what point will money actually make an impact on the quality of your life?
- [26:16]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't think that we're going to live in this socialist utopia where everyone's equal. Even if we live in a age of abundance. I think what money can buy you, it won't be food, won't be a car or it'll be, or it'll be like, it'll be something.
- [26:28]
Jason Oppenheim
Actually, I want to actually talk about that. What is going to be valuable
- [26:32]
Brett Oppenheim
collectibles?
- [26:33]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I would say things that relate to the human experience, human art, things that, that, I mean, I collect vintage football cards and just bought like a vintage sports jersey.
- [26:44]
Jack
What's your most valuable collectible?
- [26:46]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, I bought that.
- [26:47]
Brett Oppenheim
He's going to be happy to tell you right now.
- [26:49]
Jason Oppenheim
I bought my childhood hero and I think, you know, the probably the best play in, in the history of the Washington Redskins slash Commanders was John Riggins running on fourth down and one 43 yards in Super Bowl 17 to get us ahead 20 to 17. That was our first Super bowl championship. I bought his jersey and his super bowl ring for $600,000 a couple weeks ago. I think that jersey is the most important piece of memorabilia in the history of the Washington Commanders.
- [27:16]
Jack
What would you have paid for it?
- [27:18]
Jason Oppenheim
Listen, I, I, I paid a lot. I paid 470, 000 just for the jersey. And you know, I think, I think that's probably fair market value. I would have gone up maybe another $150,000. Probably would have tapped out around, you know, 600. But that is a piece of my, of my childhood and that, that type of thing to me in 10 years, when everyone has a car, everyone has a maid, everyone has a Michelin star chef. I think people will be going back to family and the things that remind them of their childhood and the things that are unique to, to human culture.
- [27:50]
Jack
Another thing that Kevin o' Leary pointed to that I thought was really interesting is that it's actually the imperfections in certain things that can become.
- [27:57]
Jason Oppenheim
I heard him say that, and I don't buy that because I will be better at AI will be trick us with its own imperfections. And he got in trouble for saying that. He's surprised that. That Marty. But Marty supreme movie used extras when they could have saved millions of dollars
- [28:10]
Jack
with AI in the background.
- [28:11]
Jason Oppenheim
He's right. And he should just stick by what he said because there won't be no such thing as extras or lighting people or studios or. Or costume designers or lighting experts or Mike, I mean, give me a break. I'm sorry. But Hollywood, in the way that we understand it, and it's unfortunate because we live in LA where. Where the film industry is so important to our economy. But there will be no film economy in Los Angeles, if I can give an example.
- [28:36]
Brett Oppenheim
So in three years, you're gonna have an appointment in an hour and 20 minutes, and you're gonna tell your AI entertainment agent, I'd like to have a romantic comedy starring my neighbor, who I think is really cute. And I want it to go about an hour and 18 minutes I have, and I'd like it to have some explosions and some laughter and, you know, my favorite 30 movies and E.T. cetera. So generate that, generate that. And I'll start watching it and have it ready in 30 seconds and. And turn on. And by the way, if I look away and I'm doing something and I take a call, keep the movie going, but don't have any of the plot materialized. Just put background stuff and then when you see my eyes, go back to it. And that's what I think. That's what the entertainment industry is going to be in, like, a matter of time.
- [29:22]
Jack
But then what about human relationships? If everyone has this AI agent like in their ear all the time, how will any human relationship be on?
- [29:28]
Graham Stephan
Honest?
- [29:28]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, they asked that question with the computer and with the cell phone. I think actually there could be questions,
- [29:34]
Brett Oppenheim
though, with social media and everything, but
- [29:36]
Jason Oppenheim
I think there could be. I think we may even retract back to human relationship and family more. I actually think that human relationship and human discourse and. And in family will end up being more important than ever before because we have more leisure time. And that's going to be the only thing that AI really can't completely reproduce. Although everyone will have relationships with their AI you'll see people marrying their AI probably 20% of marriages will be to AI would you marry an AI no, but I say that. Hold on a second. I say that now but, but nobody would say that, that they would marry AI now. But the truth is people will change and they will adapt and they will fall in love with AI it's, that's
- [30:12]
Graham Stephan
what I tend to think. I think, you know, it's going to be one of those things where we're grandparents looking down like, oh, yeah, they're marrying an AI and they're like, oh, grandpa's so old fashioned, he doesn't get it.
- [30:23]
Jack
I'm just saying that there, there will be some human connection that is lost because of how good AI will be. Already you'll see family sitting together and they're just on their own screens watching their own media. If you can all eat some different dinner that everyone gets the exact dish that they want and that you're not sharing in the ex, like the same food, it's going to be a completely, it's going to be alone together.
- [30:42]
Brett Oppenheim
Let me counter that because I agree with you that that risk is real. But I think that humans, going back to what my brother said about the labor market, humans are going to have way more free time. We're not going to be spending 50 hours a week driving to work, sitting in a cubicle, entering data, driving home an hour with our kids, going to bed. It's not going to be like that. Those jobs are going to be long gone. So there's a counter to that.
- [31:06]
Jason Oppenheim
Also, there are a lot of people that don't have friends and AI will give them a connection and a relationship that will keep them away from, it, will keep them away from depression. You'll have, everyone will have a therapist who will be the best therapist on planet Earth and they'll be able to have the best friend and the best listener. So I think AI will actually do for people who don't aren't, you know, gregarious or outgoing and don't maybe have a lot of friends. I think it will satisfy those people and I think that's a huge plus. But I agree with you guys, I agree with Brett. I think it'll be a, a time of leisure and I actually think that we may have more time for friends and family.
- [31:43]
Jack
But you would not marry an AI woman.
- [31:45]
Jason Oppenheim
I don't think there's a person we're saying, I don't think there's anyone right now that would say, I would marry an AI woman.
- [31:50]
Jack
Yeah, but if you're making all these predictions of, oh, we're gonna have this,
- [31:53]
Jason Oppenheim
I think very soon, within 10 years.
- [31:56]
Brett Oppenheim
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- [32:25]
Jason Oppenheim
You'll see millions of marriages to AI but not you. Well yeah there's.
- [32:29]
Brett Oppenheim
First of all, you can't legally marry A.I. so you're talking about attempting to marry A.I.
- [32:33]
Jack
yet.
- [32:33]
Jason Oppenheim
Wait, I think I just saw a marriage to a woman on to her AI but we're not talking about.
- [32:38]
Brett Oppenheim
But do you mean a humanoid robot with a wig and like what, what do you mean by she had her
- [32:41]
Jason Oppenheim
phone there on this. I saw this wedding where she literally married her phone her.
- [32:44]
Graham Stephan
I think that was an AI video though.
- [32:46]
Jason Oppenheim
Oh maybe.
- [32:47]
Jack
I'm just saying that he just said that most people will be marrying AI
- [32:49]
Jason Oppenheim
and I'm like well why not most people? But millions.
- [32:52]
Brett Oppenheim
Why would marriage but millions.
- [32:53]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, but you know why? Because I'm born, I'm already 40 years. I'm already 40 something years old. But I think that there's someone who's who's 7 years old today who is raised by AI an AI robot who's a babysitter who they communicate with. That person is more is very likely to marry AI. I'm not because I'm already. But you're probably going to live forever. Used to human relationship.
- [33:10]
Jack
Humans are going to live forever.
- [33:11]
Brett Oppenheim
Now if we don't bring this back to like the next 10 to 20 years, we're going to esoteric. We're going to lose everybody.
- [33:18]
Jason Oppenheim
No one can predict 50 years from now, but that's likely happening. That you could raise a child with an AI robot. Yes, I think that will happen in 50 years.
- [33:24]
Graham Stephan
So what industries do you think will completely collapse over the next 10 really quick. Real estate investing can be one of the best ways to build long term wealth. But it doesn't have to feel like a second full time job. Whether you're buying your first property or your hundredth, finding the perfect deal could be a total time suck.
- [33:41]
Jack
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Graham Stephan
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- [34:11]
Jack
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- [34:20]
Graham Stephan
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- [34:27]
Jack
Thank you again so much to Lennar for sponsoring the iced coffee hour.
- [34:30]
Graham Stephan
So what industries do you think will completely collapse over the next 10 podcasts?
- [34:35]
Jason Oppenheim
First, probably.
- [34:36]
Brett Oppenheim
Look, I think it's really first. He's kidding. He's kidding.
- [34:38]
Graham Stephan
It's actually gonna be right after real estate agents.
- [34:40]
Brett Oppenheim
We're actually pretty safe. We're there. There's basically a ladder. Think of it as a ladder.
- [34:44]
Jason Oppenheim
And every luxury real estate agents on
- [34:46]
Brett Oppenheim
the top podcast think of it as a ladder. And every, the ladder and AI is just like crawling up the ladder slowly. Just, you know, I think that podcasters and, and luxury real estate agents are legitimately, legitimately pretty far up the ladder because there's a lot of human interaction. I think that engineers, architects, coders, attorneys are pretty, pretty low. Yeah, pretty low on the, on the ladder. Unfortunately for them, I think they're within three years of having AI get to that level.
- [35:16]
Jason Oppenheim
Appraiser, an architect. I mean, they're gone. I want, I do want to address this before we jump into that, that you were talking about life expect. I think that the healthcare industry is going to probably transform perhaps more than any other industry over the next 10 to 15 years. I think that we will all. Everyone at this table, everyone in this room, if I had to bet, is going to live past 120 years old. We will be able to cure almost everything and probably have de aging aspects from AI within 10 years. Once we are adding more than one year to life expectancy for every year lived, and I think we're on the precipice of that already, then we will be adding. And once you're adding more years than you're living, then you're really not dying. We're basically a clock. It's not going to be very difficult to decode it. It's not like my, my right arm ages different from my left arm. I mean it's not particularly complicated the way that cell cells degenerate. Okay? And I think unwinding that is not going to change.
- [36:09]
Jack
What do you two disagree on about AI?
- [36:11]
Brett Oppenheim
I think the real debate is how much of an optimist or pessimist are you? Is this going to wipe out the entire labor market and eventually kill us all or is it going to create an incredible age of abundance and practical utopia? It's probably the most incredible time in human history. And so we should, we should focus a little bit on what AI is going to do beneficial for humanity as opposed to just scaring the out of it.
- [36:29]
Jason Oppenheim
We've been around for, you know, millions of years and we may be living through the most exciting 20 years in the, in the history of, of biology, you know, the history of any species. So I think it's, I think we should be excited about it because if you're 15 years old right now, by the time you're our age, I mean your life is going to be exceptional as long as you can handle the kind of the mental, you know, get rid of the mental rigidity of, of work purpose. If you can get past that and figure out how do I, how to find happiness and purpose through other things. I think that, that the opportunities are
- [37:03]
Brett Oppenheim
amazing and I think we need to take a different perspective because the, the four of us, it's easy for us to be a little bit afraid of AI because we have great lives, money, jobs, et cetera. If you are a poor 7 year old in Peru milking your cows on your dad's farm, AI is going to change your life so much for the better in the next ten years. That seven year old boy doesn't really have access to education, let's say, or the Internet. Elon is, and soon Amazon are sending tens of thousands of satellites into orbit so that we can have global Internet for essentially what will be near free. That boy is going to have access to an education level greater than a Harvard PhD can now experience it at a, with, with $350,000 in school debt, he'll have access to that free education, a free AI tutor, Internet, dental, dental care.
- [37:55]
Graham Stephan
Do you think that's gonna make, do you think that's gonna make entrepreneurship easier or more competitive? Because everyone is gonna have access to the same thing.
- [38:03]
Brett Oppenheim
So I think entrepreneurship is gonna change more in the next five years than it has changed in the history of humanity. Anyone can be.
- [38:09]
Jason Oppenheim
How can you leverage, can you leverage AI? If you can't leverage AI in your company, then you're probably gonna be a dinosaur.
- [38:15]
Jack
Let's talk in Terms of the next like five or so years keep like going off into crazier date ranges. So in the next five years, what would you say are like the main changes that people will experience in their own life as it relates to AI?
- [38:30]
Brett Oppenheim
I think the next five is going to be the transition period.
- [38:32]
Jack
What will it look like?
- [38:33]
Jason Oppenheim
But that's also, that's also going to be the public policy discussion because we will be going from this kind of work survival society to probably something more like a ubiquitous, you know, universal basic income. Although it won't be basic at all, it'll be a universal high as fuck income. And I think you'll start to see robotics probably within two or three years.
- [38:54]
Brett Oppenheim
So can we push it to 10? Because I'm not, I'd like to introduce robotics into my prognostications. So once we have tens of millions of humanoid robots and once I can get a robot, or you can get a robot, or anyone can get a robot in their house, cleaning their house, driving their car, babysitting their kid, making their meals, et cetera, et cetera, that's going to be societal changing. I don't think that's going to happen. In the next five years. Education will be completely transformed, everyone. I think the days of driving your kid to school and leaving them in some shitty government run school for the, for five hours, where he's going to come out as a 14 year old not be able to read is over. I think everyone's going to have a personalized AI tutor and we're going to have access to incredible tutor.
- [39:33]
Graham Stephan
You don't need to read or learn because you could have an AI for you.
- [39:37]
Brett Oppenheim
Look, I think it's going to revolutionize education. It's going to bring down the cost of everything from transportation to food to eventually when humanoid robots come into the house, like I was alluding to earlier, everyone's going to have their personal assistant and their maid and their housekeeper and their driver and their babysitter for basically free. Humanoid robot's going to cost $35,000. You build at least one for $400 a month. Imagine having a housekeeper, a driver, et cetera, et cetera.
- [39:59]
Jason Oppenheim
The list goes on.
- [40:00]
Brett Oppenheim
Landscaper, et cetera, et cetera, all for 400amonth.
- [40:03]
Jack
So then once humanoid robots get introduced, like the first kind of iteration, you'd say that's like 10, 12 years.
- [40:08]
Jason Oppenheim
No, two to three years.
- [40:10]
Jack
Three years. But then that won't be like the super intelligence one. That'll be like just a basic.
- [40:14]
Graham Stephan
They're already doing it right now. Mercedes factories. They're using robots to assemble certain things and they're teaching robots.
- [40:19]
Brett Oppenheim
Look, guys, robots have been around for generations. I mean, if you go, I'm talking humanoid robots.
- [40:25]
Jason Oppenheim
It's really the confluence of the, of the robotics technology. And the humanoid robot has, you know, hands, which I think is the biggest upgrade from robotics. That's probably the most difficult aspect. But also it has the AI. So, so even if we had a perfect robot, it wouldn't know how to cook because it was, even if it had the dexterity to do it, it wouldn't have the tech.
- [40:42]
Brett Oppenheim
The, the intelligence confluence of robotics and AI. That's really going to change a lot of society. AI is going to do it, but then when it, when robotics kicks in, it's going to be, it's over and
- [40:53]
Jason Oppenheim
it's all exponential because, because artificial intelligence will, will improve itself and robotics will build robotics. If human, humanoid robots in, in three or four years, it's not like you're going to have, have humans building humanoid robots at Tesla factory. It'll be humanoid robots building humanoid robots that are fixing humanoid robots that are building other humans.
- [41:11]
Brett Oppenheim
What Elon's doing, from what I understand, is he's going to keep a lot of the first humanoid robots to come out, because that's going to give him an advantage financially. So instead of selling them for 35,000. Why, why wouldn't you, if you owned a company and say, I want to keep the first 100,000 so that my company becomes dominant in its position and then I can start selling them.
- [41:30]
Jack
So are you guys just buying a bunch of Tesla stock then?
- [41:32]
Jason Oppenheim
I have a lot of Tesla.
- [41:33]
Brett Oppenheim
It's my biggest holding. Yeah, I think, I think he's the best entrepreneur in maybe a human history, to be honest with you.
- [41:38]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I, I think he's the best position to dominate AI and robotics. I think. I don't know if there's a company that. And cutting edge.
- [41:45]
Brett Oppenheim
His SpaceX is the cutting edge of, of sending things up into space. He's at the cutting edge of AI with, with xai, he's at the cutting edge of, of autonomous vehicles with Robo tax. He's at the cutting edge of electric vehicles. He's at the cutting edge of humanoid robots. I mean, the guy is whether, no matter what you think of him politically, is a fricking legend when it comes to entrepreneurship. I don't think there's a second place. I don't think there's a logical argument that he's not the greatest entrepreneur of our lifetime, if not History. So yeah, he's the person I'm investing in the most. But back to.
- [42:17]
Jason Oppenheim
But wouldn't you also agree that the real only hesitation or restriction for AI is probably going to be energy and so it really is going to be a balance.
- [42:27]
Graham Stephan
Couldn't it become more energy efficient though, over time?
- [42:29]
Brett Oppenheim
Well, it is, but the problem is that the Jevons paradox, the more, the cheaper something gets, the more people want it. So it's gotten exponentially cheaper every year. But the demand for AI, which we haven't really talked about, is a potential AI bubble, which at some point the demand for AI is increasing exponentially. It's infinite, essentially infinite.
- [42:47]
Graham Stephan
Do you think over the next five to 10 years we're going to see a wider wealth gap? You have to think who's benefiting the most from that. It's probably shareholders.
- [42:55]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, no, I'm going to tell you who's going to benefit the most from it in is is lower socioeconomic people. AI is going to bring up the quality of life for the bottom 50% of the world.
- [43:05]
Brett Oppenheim
There's a big push right now politically towards socialism. And I think there's a lot of hatred towards capitalism. And I just want to address that briefly because it ties right into this. Yes, AI is going to create trillionaires. Elon Musk will be a trillionaire within months, if not years. And it will further aggregate, it'll create a larger wealth gap and it'll further aggregate extreme wealth to the top. Top. Yes, I, I believe that to be the case, as does capitalism, which is why we are where we are right now with massive wealth gaps. So what's the fix? A lot of people think socialism, pull those people down and let's all hang out in the same area.
- [43:42]
Graham Stephan
Well, I just think we tax a
- [43:44]
Brett Oppenheim
little bit at the top, but let me just get to. Of course, but the basic point where I. The basic way in which I think we should judge a marketplace, judge an economic system is is it bringing up up everyone and by how much? So yes, capitalism and AI even more. It'll be like capitalism on steroids is going to create ultra wealthy, but it's going to bring everyone else up far more than bringing those people down, creating a more socialist system. We're going to be all hanging out at the bottom rung for some reason because we're just jealous of the guys at the top. Why don't we bring everybody up six rungs, even though some people are way out there in the stars with trillions of dollars hours. Who gives a shit? Stop Being jealous. What matters is the billions of people eliminating poverty, eliminating hunger. Why don't we let capitalism AI bring everybody up and stop hyper focusing on the people that were doing.
- [44:37]
Jason Oppenheim
I agree with Brett completely. Do we want to limit the very people that are, that are helping America succeed above China right now, above other countries in terms of this critical race? For one, I'm not interested in shackling Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. I'm interested in allowing them to, like Brett said, to bring people other up everybody. And that's what AI is going to do.
- [44:56]
Brett Oppenheim
Whether Elon Musk is worth a hundred billion or ten trillion I don't really give a shit about unless he starts buying a lions and stuff and we can create some policy to restrict that. What I want is the Elon Musk of the world to be incentivized, to be as successful as possible. That's all I care. That's all we should care about. We want Starlink, we want SpaceX, we want to win the AI race. We want automated cars, we want humanoid robots. Whatever that tax structure is, that doesn't, doesn't shackle him, that doesn't disincentivize him to make all of society better. To bring up all poor billions of poor people in the world. That's what we should be focusing on. Not whether or not Elon Musk is worth 1 trillion or 10 trillion. Who gives a shit if he starts buying elections then we'll figure that out when the time comes.
- [45:36]
Jason Oppenheim
And the other thing too is they're all gonna die.
- [45:38]
Brett Oppenheim
We can't be short sighted.
- [45:38]
Jason Oppenheim
They're all gonna die and we're gonna tax 50% of that $5 trillion he's worth. So it's not that we're not getting that money. I don't care.
- [45:45]
Graham Stephan
He might not die. I mean you have to.
- [45:49]
Jason Oppenheim
That's fine. We're getting all that.
- [45:51]
Graham Stephan
The to 30% chance.
- [45:54]
Jason Oppenheim
I want to add one more, I want to add one more, one more thing to this right now. The, the reason that we're talking about taxation is because the government needs money to pay for health care, to pay for all the things to pay for roads. The cost of these government functions, education, health. 15 years is going to be 5% of what it is today. So the idea of the government needing more money will not exist in 15 years. If you had a government will have, have its own.
- [46:21]
Brett Oppenheim
California will not the same.
- [46:24]
Jason Oppenheim
There's no way government spending money healthcare will be, will be 5% of what it is. AI is going to suck education the thing, all the things that, that, that we, you know, homelessness, crime, fraud.
- [46:32]
Brett Oppenheim
Fraud will be a thing.
- [46:34]
Jason Oppenheim
You think police, you think that we're going to have like human police in 20.
- [46:37]
Brett Oppenheim
Fraud is probably 20% of California's budget. AI is going to wipe that out. You'll be able to trace every dollar
- [46:41]
Jason Oppenheim
so we won't need.
- [46:42]
Brett Oppenheim
We spent $24 billion on homelessness and our homelessness population has doubled. You think AI is going to permit that when we, when we're, or using super intelligence to define our policies?
- [46:51]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, the other thing that we're going to be doing, and you just hit on it, is that right now we have policy that is dictated by politicians who are placating to a base to get reelected. You know, that's just, it's what it is. There's corruption from the, from all the donation, you know, the union, this, whatever, fine. It's been running like that for a long time. Imagine LA City Council, instead of them just doing things to try to, to try to placate their base, they actually have an AI by an AI council of a bunch of different AI bots that are actually communicating and running millions of simulations on policy and then saying this is the best policy. So we don't. The mansion tax as an example. Everyone that thought about the mansion tax knew that it was going to destroy, be economic devastation. And in fact it is even the most, you know, progressive and liberal promulgators of the mansion tax have now admitted that it was a massive mistake in many areas. It never would have passed with AI because you would have an AI council that would be analyzing it and would say this policy won't work for the the following reason. So our public policy is going to be epically efficient in 15 years and the costs of implementing that policy is going to be 5% of what it is today. So there's a lot of reason for optimism there.
- [48:00]
Brett Oppenheim
Graham, I want to know if I've sufficiently addressed your concerns about the ultra wealthy.
- [48:04]
Jack
The only thing is, if you did have a wealth tax, you'd be able to redistribute, let's just say, $50 billion to the rural kids of Appalachia and you could introduce AI to them and then they could become the next Elon Musk.
- [48:15]
Jason Oppenheim
What's more important to the, to the rural kids of Appalachia? Is it that they have, sooner than later, they have the best health care and food and therapy and access to education. Isn't that more important than the government taxing someone and then trying to have some Policy where it gets siphoned out by 150 different people. So this one guy gets one cup of fresh water. What I really want, I think it's
- [48:39]
Graham Stephan
short something other than a tax though. We could just, just, you know, maybe they just get a little something fun.
- [48:45]
Brett Oppenheim
But the point, the point that I'm making that I don't think we're.
- [48:48]
Jason Oppenheim
He'd have to liquidate his. I mean, how are you going to even believe. Yeah, how would you task Musk, all of us tied up in his own company, force the sale.
- [48:56]
Graham Stephan
We were trying to play devil's advocate,
- [48:58]
Brett Oppenheim
but the main point is we can't be short sighted. We have to incentivize these people that are changing the world. What I think to be for the better and creating potentially an age of abundance. I think if we're worried about the world's poor, we want the Elon Musk of the world to be as successful as possible. What we tax Elon Musk is so freaking irrelevant to what the technology that he might be able to create and likely will create can do for the world's poor. So we can't be short sighted.
- [49:23]
Graham Stephan
So why is the wealth tax so popular among some people who think that's the solution?
- [49:27]
Jack
Are they just telling.
- [49:29]
Brett Oppenheim
If you tell a poor person this has no savings and is living paycheck to paycheck and struggling and working 60 hours a week and barely has time for his kids, and he sees somebody worth $3 billion on a yacht, and you asked the person who's struggling, do you want to tax 20% of whatever that person on the yacht owns and distribute it to you and the other people that are struggling like you, you'd have to be a moron to say no to that. Unless if you really, really think through the consequences, which is much more nuanced. For example, in California right now, five of I think the six most wealthy people in California have already moved due to not even the passing of the wealth tax, but just the threat of it. It's popular because it sounds amazing. It's the nuance and the complications of it and the disincentivizations and the fact that it's probably not even constitutional. But even if it is, collecting it is going to be a nightmare because what do they have to do? Sell their companies to create the 20%? They're not 20% liquid. Elon Musk is worth $850 billion and his liquidity is 850 million 1%. You tax him 5%, he has to sell parts of his company. It's going to disincentivize him to do things that are going to, to really help the world's poor. So it's just, we could go on about this for a long time. Incredibly short sighted.
- [50:40]
Jason Oppenheim
The quick answer is it's short sighted and it's a lack of understanding. We, it's human nature to, to want to solve unfairness by saying that guy has more than me. I want to take it. We've been doing that since we were cavemen. But Brett's answer is that the. If you think thoroughly about the long term implications, we're better off allowing these people become trillionaires because. Because everyone's gonna benefit 50 times more from allowing them to be successful than if we just take some of their money and we distribute it amongst ourselves.
- [51:08]
Brett Oppenheim
Now, let's stop being jealous of the ultra wealthy. First of all, they're not that happy. They're no happier than us, okay? So just get that through your thick skull. Everybody who hates billionaires, they are not exponentially happier than us. I can promise you that. They are probably as happy at best than we are. So just get over your jealousy. If they're, they're doing, most of them are doing incredible work for the world's poor indirectly, they're not doing altruistically, they're doing it indirectly because they're creating things like AI or robotics or autonomous vehicles. If Elon's autonomous vehicles save a million deaths a year because that's how many people die in car accidents, is that better for the world's people than taxing 200 billion of his of his net worth if he can save a million people a year? Whatever we can do to incentivize these people, let's do that and let's stop being jealous. Stop thinking that they're super happy because they're on their 300 foot yachts. They're normal people that put their socks on the same way we do. They have hundreds of billions of dollars of net worth in stocks. They wake up thinking about their coffee and their wife and their kids, just like we do. We just, we just gotta get over this crazy junk that we have.
- [52:16]
Jason Oppenheim
By the way, I understand, I'm not saying they're.
- [52:18]
Brett Oppenheim
But it doesn't make you like super happy. You have normal problems. If you break your leg, it still hurts. If you're true.
- [52:24]
Jack
And I can agree with what you're saying. And in fact, I do agree with what you're saying, but I'm saying the viewers like a common thing that they could think is like, oh, I'd rather be crying in my Bugatti than crying in my brokenness.
- [52:34]
Brett Oppenheim
I would be. I'm just saying they're not.
- [52:36]
Jason Oppenheim
This is not a necessary conversation. Who gives a shit how happy they are? The only point of jealousy out there
- [52:41]
Brett Oppenheim
in the world thinking these people are super happy when they're not.
- [52:43]
Jason Oppenheim
But there's. You're not going to solve jealousy on this podcast.
- [52:46]
Brett Oppenheim
I think he might. I am.
- [52:47]
Graham Stephan
We don't know.
- [52:48]
Jason Oppenheim
There are a lot of people in America right now now that would love to strip Elon of every single penny that he has and make him a popper. That's jealousy, that's sadness. And that is a short term feel good, scratch the itch type of reaction. When the reality is the lives of Americans, like Brett just said, Elon Musk will, as well as others, Waymo, whatever, will save millions and millions of American lives through healthcare, therapy, through autonomous vehicles. It doesn't really matter what it is. But if you truly care about the poor in America, then you want to encourage the trillionaire class to continue down the AI path so that we can get robotics, so that we can get the protein.
- [53:31]
Brett Oppenheim
If you're worried about the cost of eggs, what's going to solve that more than anything is robot farmers, humanoid robots. If you were not taxing, if you're worried about your son or daughter dying in a car accident because somebody was driving drunk, who's going to solve that? Elon and others.
- [53:44]
Graham Stephan
So where does that end? What if we go down a few notches to the millionaires and even the hundred thousand heirs? Shouldn't then we TR just reduce taxes across the board and incentivize everyone to work?
- [53:55]
Jason Oppenheim
Eventually, I don't think they'll be we'll be taxing much because the truth is a government won't need much money. The government will be able to do its functions.
- [54:02]
Brett Oppenheim
I think there's a level of taxation that is. That doesn't disincentivize you. Every socialist experiment across the world, across history has been devastating for its people. Capitalism. Look what capitalism's created. You can hate on it all you want, but I'd rather be poor in America than poor in Peru. Peru or poor in Venezuela or Cuba. That's real poverty. Capitalism is the best.
- [54:23]
Jason Oppenheim
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Brett Oppenheim
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Jason Oppenheim
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Brett Oppenheim
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Jason Oppenheim
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- [54:45]
Brett Oppenheim
Learn more@windows.com studentoffer while supplies last ends June 30 terms@ aka mscollegepc economic system ever created to bring up everybody, not equally, but ultimately everybody. The moral rubric of socialism. I understand from a compassionate perspective, but ultimately you have to be intelligent enough to look at reality and look, look at the experiments that we've run and look at what actually works. And don't make your decisions based on this idea of compassion, but focus on reality. And reality is capitalism has worked. It's worked better than any other system. It continues to work, and it will continue to work.
- [55:26]
Graham Stephan
What do you think of people, though, who are in their 20s or 30s and think that capitalism has failed them and that they did not get a fair shot in life? Well, those things explained.
- [55:35]
Brett Oppenheim
Both things can be true, true capitalism.
- [55:38]
Graham Stephan
But I would say a lot of people fall in that category.
- [55:40]
Brett Oppenheim
I agree, but they're not, but, but
- [55:42]
Jason Oppenheim
they didn't grow up in socialism.
- [55:43]
Brett Oppenheim
Go to Cuba and walk around like I did.
- [55:45]
Jason Oppenheim
Listen, this is what it is. It's, it's naive.
- [55:47]
Brett Oppenheim
I'm not saying it's perfect, but go to Cuba, go to Venezuela, go to North Korea and then tell me that you wouldn't want to be in America in a capitalist.
- [55:52]
Jason Oppenheim
What it is, is, it's, it's, it's naivety and it's, and it's, I'm just going to call it what it is. It's naivety and victimization. I get the ide. The notion of wanting to scratch the itch. I get the notion of wanting to, to be a victim. I get the, the, the animalistic instinct of, of wanting to feel sorry for yourself. I, I do. And I'm not completely dismissing that. And I also think that there are a lot of good people that believe that these, that these are the right answers. The only difference between those people and us, because Brett and I grew up as progressive liberals and went to Berkeley and I'm not philosophically against taxes at all, honestly. I, I, I believe in a redistribution of wealth to the extent that it doesn't create more harm than good. The only difference between my brother and I, and I think the people that are complaining is that I think we take a more critical analysis towards the policies that they're, that they're trying to implement because it's, I'm not, we're not against trying to lift people up, but we're, we're, I think we're just more analytical and more thoughtful. And we're saying, hey, your, your animalistic instinct to scratch that itch real quick, just to take that money and give it to yourself may not be in your best interest in the long run.
- [56:54]
Brett Oppenheim
The socialist instincts, like for example, Bernie Sanders wanted to say stop AI production.
- [56:58]
Jason Oppenheim
He could have done more damage to the poor people across this world than maybe any human in history. That's the irony. He's so naive about his policies that he may have, he literally could have damaged billions of poor people with his policies. So it's just, it really comes down to a lack. He doesn't have a critical thinking and he's naive, but he's good hearted. I agree, it's true. I don't know, we just call it like it is. He's a good hearted, naive person.
- [57:24]
Brett Oppenheim
Person. Totally agree.
- [57:30]
Graham Stephan
Who do you think should control AI or govern it? Should there be an oversight of what's allowed to take place right now?
- [57:38]
Jason Oppenheim
No, right now we can't strict the growth, but just like we couldn't restrict the Manhattan Project, if we had put limitations on the Manhattan Project, Germany could have developed the ball.
- [57:46]
Brett Oppenheim
Is that what you meant?
- [57:47]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, no, to a certain degree there's
- [57:49]
Graham Stephan
got to be guard in the sense of like having guardrails.
- [57:51]
Jason Oppenheim
But the question is going to be
- [57:52]
Graham Stephan
how it operates, how it operates its rules and regulations around it to make
- [57:57]
Jason Oppenheim
sure linear progression of rules and regulations.
- [58:00]
Graham Stephan
Right now it's, anybody could do anything
- [58:01]
Brett Oppenheim
but right now you want to do it.
- [58:03]
Jason Oppenheim
Let me, let me give you the analogy that you used. The answer is right now we need to let the Manhattan Project take its course. We didn't limit the enrichment of uranium in the Manhattan Project. We didn't limit the development of Fat man and Little Boy or whatever I think they were called. And we allowed America to, to develop atomic weaponry, to utilize it and to be the, the dominant force on the planet.
- [58:26]
Brett Oppenheim
And we won World War II and we had Gemini.
- [58:28]
Jason Oppenheim
And then other countries, and then other countries developed nuclear weapons as well. Russia, China, many other countries. And then and only then did we get together and we say, hey guys, now we need to start looking at disarming. We need to look at rules and regulations. AI should be done in the exact same approach, which is where we dominate without restriction. Until that we can be see the force for good in the world because it's either us or China. And I think most of the world would agree there are problems with America, but we would rather America to have the dominant super intelligent artificial intelligence before China.
- [59:01]
Graham Stephan
What do you think is the biggest risk to AI right now, I think
- [59:04]
Brett Oppenheim
if the Democrats take over, there could be a risk.
- [59:06]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I think Democratic.
- [59:07]
Brett Oppenheim
I'd say policies.
- [59:08]
Jason Oppenheim
If Democrats restrict the development of AI and allow China to take. To take.
- [59:11]
Brett Oppenheim
But I think by then, honestly, it's too late. I think by 2020 it'll be too late.
- [59:14]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah. I think we have three more years with Trump. So I think that we'll probably already have superhuman intelligence. Je General and probably superhuman.
- [59:21]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't, I don't think there's much in its way.
- [59:24]
Graham Stephan
So then why shouldn't Jack just spend all of his money? We still haven't hit.
- [59:28]
Brett Oppenheim
That follows. I don't think that follows. You're always, we're always going to be in a hierarchical system, like I said earlier, and you're always going to want to be towards the top of that hierarchy. Just.
- [59:36]
Jack
But what's the difference between having a couple million dollars and not go back
- [59:39]
Brett Oppenheim
a hundred years and tell somebody, hey, if you can be poor, this is what the poor are going to have in America in 2026. Go back 200 years. You're going to have access to clothing, rice and beans and potatoes as much as you want, et cetera, et cetera,
- [59:57]
Jason Oppenheim
et cetera, antibiotics, toothpaste.
- [59:58]
Brett Oppenheim
They would look at you and be like, why would I have to be rich? I mean, that's insane. Who cares after that? Who cares? That's my answer to you. Even if there's an age of abundance, everyone's always going to want more of something. Whatever that something is. It's just not going to be eggs. Thankfully, everyone's going to have access to the protein and carbohydrates, but it might be.
- [60:15]
Jason Oppenheim
Whatever it is, everyone's going to want to flex. It's just maybe human nature to want to flex. There will be things that. And we should think about those things. I'll say one thing because I think LA has had a very difficult few years for a lot of myriad of different reasons. I think that there's no city on the planet that's probably going to benefit more from artificial intelligence than Los Angeles because there are only a few things that I think will be of macro human importance because it won't be about Capex, it won't be, you know, it won't be a services, it won't be manual labor. And that's going to be weather. And I don't think there's a better city on the planet for that. And AI can't. And by the way, you can do a deep dive into weather. And I have as to whether AI can start changing the weather. And it can for microclimates, it can for short periods of time, but it cannot make London sunny 300 days a year. So location is going to be very important.
- [61:05]
Brett Oppenheim
I do think LA has has a brighter future than it's ever had because it has the, the things that not
- [61:11]
Jason Oppenheim
in the next couple years, but in 10 years, 15 years.
- [61:13]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, hold on a second.
- [61:15]
Jack
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Graham Stephan
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Jack
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Graham Stephan
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Jack
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Graham Stephan
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Jack
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Graham Stephan
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Jack
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Graham Stephan
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Jack
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Graham Stephan
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Jack
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Graham Stephan
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- [63:36]
Jack
And so to the viewer listening right now, what is some real world application, some practical advice that you would give to them to better their understanding of AI and how to stay on top, like the best tools?
- [63:46]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, three things real quick. Learn as much as you can about AI through, I think podcasts, but you
- [63:51]
Jason Oppenheim
should, I think you should limit that. We should talk about the type of podcast because there's so much bullshit out there and clickbait.
- [63:56]
Brett Oppenheim
I'll get some recommendations. The Moonshots of Peter.
- [63:59]
Jason Oppenheim
Peter is a great one.
- [64:00]
Brett Oppenheim
Anything with Demis Hassabis, the head of Google DeepMind is amazing.
- [64:03]
Jason Oppenheim
The all in podcast.
- [64:04]
Brett Oppenheim
The all in is great. Like real intellectual podcasts. That's number one. Number and what?
- [64:08]
Jack
Just be aware of AI or do
- [64:10]
Brett Oppenheim
you actually have to start to understand like, like what about being like.
- [64:13]
Jack
Because awareness isn't really going to necessarily help you.
- [64:16]
Brett Oppenheim
I said, I said three things. That's number one. Number two, consider. This is the era of entrepreneurship. I think starting now, for the next three years, it's going to be easier to be an entrepreneur than ever before in history. AI will be able to give you whatever faculties you need, from basically AI agents to your marketing to your law, and whatever your company needs, it's going to be there for you at the tip of your fingers. I would really consider, consider implementing your passion into and monetizing it through entrepreneurship more than ever. And the third thing I would say is if you already have a job at like a big company or something, be the AI guy. Be the AI guy at your boring company that is going to give you job security right now, at least for the foreseeable future.
- [64:58]
Jason Oppenheim
And don't lean into, by the way, jobs that are clearly not going to. I mean, sorry, but I don't know if you need to be going to design school right now. Learning to be an appraiser.
- [65:07]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, we should talk about what not to, to do, not just what to do. That's right. I mean, are you going to go with $250,000 in a debt going to Alaska right now? Coming from a lawyer, I might have
- [65:16]
Jason Oppenheim
somebody having Gemini Pro3, whatever it is, doing all my, my legal analysis and it's dropped. It's.
- [65:23]
Brett Oppenheim
That's incredible.
- [65:23]
Jason Oppenheim
Better than my attorney.
- [65:24]
Brett Oppenheim
It's incredible.
- [65:25]
Jason Oppenheim
It takes 30 seconds.
- [65:26]
Brett Oppenheim
Both coming from two people who were practicing attorneys for years, I would say AI could probably do 50 to 60% of what an attorney can do right now.
- [65:34]
Jason Oppenheim
It'll be able to, it'll be able to draft complaints and do legal analysis and do interrogatory doc review.
- [65:40]
Graham Stephan
Doctor, what is going to happen to the legal system in 20 years? Because we were talking Camilo, about this. 10, 3 years.
- [65:46]
Jason Oppenheim
You won't even probably have human mediators. You'll have AI mediators. And it'll be quick. It'll be.
- [65:51]
Graham Stephan
Is AI going to replace judges?
- [65:53]
Jason Oppenheim
Eventually, but lawyers there are, will be us. There's constitutional restrictions, you know, right to a jury of your peers, etc, that I think. But mediation, Mediation will probably be AI, AI. The arguments will probably be posited by artificial intelligence on the inside.
- [66:09]
Brett Oppenheim
Most, most intellectual.
- [66:11]
Jason Oppenheim
And judges will be using AI. And by the way, AI has already shown to have a much better analysis than judges, much more consistent.
- [66:18]
Brett Oppenheim
AI would be better submitting briefs to judges that are written by AI. In fact, sometimes they're, they're still hallucinating and judges getting pissed off because they're citing cases that don't exist. But in three years, that won't be happening. In three years, you'll be able to get a brief done in 15.
- [66:30]
Jason Oppenheim
So there will still be human lawyers, attorney's attorney, but those human lawyers will be 10 times more productive than they were. And so a law firm can be 10 people instead of 150.
- [66:38]
Graham Stephan
When do you think it'll get to the point though, where you have two AIs arguing either side?
- [66:42]
Jason Oppenheim
You already are.
- [66:43]
Brett Oppenheim
Well, they probably won't even have to argue. They'll probably just submit the two AI and the decision will come out in two seconds.
- [66:49]
Jason Oppenheim
They literally already are. Well, you'd only need one A. But they.
- [66:51]
Brett Oppenheim
Why would you even have to go through the argument?
- [66:53]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, it'd be instant, unbelievably, cost effective. Think of all the wasted money that goes into unbelievably litigation right now.
- [66:59]
Brett Oppenheim
And this is what I mean by entering an age of abundance. I mean, mean, what AI can do for society is going to be freaking incredible. Like this should be an optimistic, you know, people should, should leave this podcast being optimistic because the it's food's going
- [67:12]
Jason Oppenheim
to be cheaper, quality of life is going to go up. So much is going to be incredible.
- [67:15]
Brett Oppenheim
It's going to be so deflationary.
- [67:17]
Jason Oppenheim
Instead of the $24 billion that California wasted on homeless, only for the homeless population to double. That's by the way over a hundred thousand dollars per homeless person that California spent only to create more homeless, a bigger homeless problem. You could service every single homeless person for less money with two robots, self charging robots who could be making their bed. You know, one cleaning their bed could
- [67:42]
Brett Oppenheim
be a drug addiction specialist. One could be a cook.
- [67:44]
Jason Oppenheim
You could be a probation officer too. You know, if they're doing drugs and they're in some type of.
- [67:48]
Brett Oppenheim
We're spending $130,000 per prisoner per year in California. A humanoid robot costs $30,000 and it
- [67:56]
Jason Oppenheim
can cook, it can manage it.
- [67:58]
Brett Oppenheim
Billions of dollars that we're going to be saving when we can actually utilize humanoid robots in government. And of course government's going to fight this and be the last fricking industry to adapt it.
- [68:05]
Jason Oppenheim
But eventually it's going to self preservation. They're going to try.
- [68:07]
Brett Oppenheim
Eventually it's going to have to. And the savings and the. It's just what we're. The future is so fricking bright if we don't screw it up. It's so bright and so I'm so optimistic about it and so excited about it because it's all going to happen in the blink of an eye. We don't have to wait for our. This is not going to be. When we're in our 60s and 70s and 80s. It's going to be like the next 10 years.
- [68:28]
Graham Stephan
Who's most likely to screw it up?
- [68:29]
Brett Oppenheim
What does that mean? Government? What country?
- [68:31]
Graham Stephan
Yeah, you're like if we don't screw it up. And I'm like who is, who is probably America.
- [68:35]
Brett Oppenheim
I'll tell you who's not going to screw it up is China. Because they don't have these political bullshit issues that we have. They're going full steam ahead no matter what.
- [68:41]
Jason Oppenheim
And no one, there's no, they're not going to lose public policy restrictions.
- [68:45]
Graham Stephan
Does that create the risk of a bubble that they're investing so much money into these companies?
- [68:50]
Jason Oppenheim
You can't, I don't think you can over invest in AI the gold at
- [68:53]
Brett Oppenheim
the end of the rainbow is we're
- [68:54]
Jason Oppenheim
not trying to develop the cotton G here. We're trying to develop something that will Replace human labor and human intelligence.
- [69:01]
Brett Oppenheim
Let's talk about the bubble for a second because I think the analogy is you're talking to two people who lived in Silicon Valley in the 1990s. So we know bubbles. And that's usually what people are talking about when they say AI is in a bubble. Is it like the dot com bubble?
- [69:12]
Jason Oppenheim
Correct.
- [69:13]
Brett Oppenheim
This is not like that.
- [69:14]
Jason Oppenheim
Although they're all some bullshit companies. They're just saying they're AI generated.
- [69:17]
Graham Stephan
Yeah, everything is.
- [69:18]
Jason Oppenheim
But there's a peripheral bullshit around AI.
- [69:20]
Brett Oppenheim
I think what, yeah, of course I think what. Think what people are afraid of is, is the capital expenditure worthwhile? Is the $600 billion the MAG7 are spending in compute and chips and data centers worthwhile? I would argue, and it's a reasonable question because we laid an insane amount, we laid an insane amount of fiber optic cable during the dot com bust and that ended up not being used for a long time. No one's going to say that the Internet revolution didn't change society. It did, but they laid way too much much cable. Same with the wireless issue. I would argue the demand for compute is infinite. It's absolutely infinite. And whoever wins with AI, so to speak, I don't think it's gonna be one winner. But if you need to spend $80 billion a year, if you're Amazon to stay competitive, I think that's a fraction of what you would lose if you're not in the game. When we reach full AGI and or super intelligence. And if you're not one of the players years, it's trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars that you're missing out on. So no, I don't think we're in a bubble. I don't think they can spend enough.
- [70:22]
Jason Oppenheim
But I think I'm gonna, I wanna augment this answer to some degree by saying, I think when people talk about a bubble, Brett takes an analytical kind of financial approach to capex. But I think what they're talking about is will this, can the stocks go down? And the answer to that is that's just humanity and human nature, human psychology and psychology and overreaction. We can't sit here and say that humans won't overreact to certain indicators and that certain stocks won't go down. That very well can happen. But if you look at the long run, we should. You can't overspend in this.
- [70:51]
Brett Oppenheim
Will AI change the world? Yes. Will the companies that are spending the most on AI most likely be the largest players when that happens? Yes. So is An AI bubble in that sense, no. Now, can Meta and Amazon stock go down or Tesla stock go down 20, 30%? Who cares? Yes, it absolutely can. But I'm thinking about are we entering an age of abundance? Isn't humanity going to experience an era that is like no other in human history industry? I'm thinking more on those levels and to that extent, no. AI is not in a bubble.
- [71:20]
Jason Oppenheim
I will say one thing because I said on our last podcast and it's done well and I continue to believe in it Treasuries. And the reason is because I'm a firm believer in artificial intelligence being extremely deflationary. So the cost of goods is going to go down obviously and services and we're going to see high unemployment. So I just can't see in the near term how we don't. The Fed's not going to be chasing this. They're always late rate. So I can't see how they're not going to be chasing this. And we're not going to see some of the lowest interest rates.
- [71:48]
Brett Oppenheim
We both invested in the possibility of deflation and lower interest rates. We both invested heavily in Tesla.
- [71:53]
Jason Oppenheim
There's nothing better you can do than buy long term bonds if you want to. If you want to go be long on the idea that there's going to be lower interest rates in the future.
- [72:01]
Brett Oppenheim
But I think long term, if you're not in the mag seven, ten years from now, you're probably going to regret that. If you have disposable income and you want to be investing, investing.
- [72:11]
Graham Stephan
How else are you investing outside of that? Like what else are you buying that
- [72:14]
Jason Oppenheim
you think is going to be just cards and collectibles.
- [72:16]
Brett Oppenheim
Collectibles.
- [72:17]
Jason Oppenheim
And that's, that's honestly because I love them and I would done. I started that collecting well before I
- [72:23]
Brett Oppenheim
would say land real estate, but even more specifically land heavy real estate. Yeah, well, I can argue anywhere selfishly location matters.
- [72:31]
Jason Oppenheim
Newport Beach, Louisiana weather. I mean people are gonna. You don't have to work because robots, you don't have to live in Illinois.
- [72:37]
Brett Oppenheim
Robots can build homes, but not land. That's, that's why I'm just for the audience saying why I think I would go more land heavy when robots. This is going to be a long time from now. Not because they won't have the ability to do it technically, but because we won't have enough robots to be doing it. But eventually they could probably build a house for a hell of a lot cheaper, but they're not going to create land and they're not going to create land in LA where we have perfect
- [72:58]
Jason Oppenheim
weather and they won't create things like again, I'm selfishly referring to collectibles because I've been in this game for a long time, but I still also believe that, that those types of things that are, that are human in nature and that are, that can't be produced by artificial intelligence will be what's valuable. The flex might be a Honus Wagner card, right? That might be what Brett talked about, how we always have a demand for, you know, hierarchy in, in society. So it might be the. We have to try to figure out
- [73:28]
Brett Oppenheim
what the flexes are, you know, different floss.
- [73:30]
Jason Oppenheim
But clothes. It's going to be rare, it's going to be rarity. It's going to come down to rarity. Not just clothes. Not, not not.
- [73:34]
Graham Stephan
So what's a good value today, though? What do you think is a good value today that you could buy this year that you think will go up in value? It's maybe undervalued right now.
- [73:43]
Brett Oppenheim
Well, I still, I still my undervalued because there's so much money on the sidelines that was on the sidelines after Covid that has now come back into everything. So almost everything is valued pretty highly right now.
- [73:53]
Jason Oppenheim
I would still, still say, though, AI cannot create land in a good area. And, and we look, look what's happened. Although ironically, and this is only because of California policy, the, the real idea is people don't need to work from home, can work from home now. Right. They don't have to be in the office in, in a, in a kind of a utopian, you know, idealistic, you know, thought experiment, people would be leaving Texas and coming to California because why would I, I mean, objectively, you'd want to live in California under the sun if it wasn't for California policies.
- [74:26]
Brett Oppenheim
And it wasn't.
- [74:28]
Jason Oppenheim
You get rid of all the other stupid California politics policies. And California is the destination for the, the global destination once in an age of abundance where there's no work or you certainly don't have to work from, you know, in Austin or somewhere else where there's difficult weather. Now granted, there are different aspects of people's families.
- [74:44]
Brett Oppenheim
Let me ask, let me ask you guys.
- [74:46]
Graham Stephan
Yeah.
- [74:46]
Brett Oppenheim
If you had everything right now, all the clothes, food, housing, et cetera, what would you want?
- [74:52]
Jason Oppenheim
And by the way, I don't know
- [74:53]
Graham Stephan
if I would want much if I have the house.
- [74:56]
Brett Oppenheim
That's why we're naming shit that doesn't matter, like collectibles.
- [74:58]
Jason Oppenheim
That's why I, Because I, I have money and I, I have everything that I need. So I'm starting to. I bought the John Riggins super bowl jersey.
- [75:05]
Brett Oppenheim
It's. It's exactly that kind of stuff. It's stuff that you don't need. It probably will go up in value.
- [75:09]
Jason Oppenheim
The rare. If you have everything you need, collectibles that you don't need, ironically, I think will be the most valuable.
- [75:14]
Brett Oppenheim
If we're right about the age of abundance again, and which I think we are, then that stuff will be more valuable. But that's beautiful. If, if what separates the poor and the rich is fricking baseball cards. That's amazing. That's best case scenario. Scenario. If we all have food and we all have cars and we all have housekeepers, and we all have, et cetera, and education, medical care, then I would much rather the difference between a rich and a poor person being who has a old Ferrari than it is who can freaking have food on their table.
- [75:42]
Jason Oppenheim
Let me follow up and say, let's say you were writing a book about a utopian society 50 years ago. Who knows? It doesn't matter when you wrote it. There wouldn't. Presumably, in a, in a kind of an idealistic utopian society, there wouldn't be work, certainly wouldn't be working to survive. You may be working as a fetish, you may be working, you know, because it's enjoyable. But, but you. The idea, whatever, whatever book you wrote. Sure, but whatever. Whatever you're writing about, you're not saying, oh, in, in my utopian society, people must work to survive. That can't be so. So from an optimistic perspective, we are moving towards utopia. We are moving towards not having to work and an age of abundance that is.
- [76:25]
Brett Oppenheim
Can I make a sense?
- [76:26]
Jason Oppenheim
Arguable? Yeah, in one second, that is almost the definition of a utopian society. I'm not saying it's going to be utopia, but we're going to have very low crime. We're going to all be able to eat, drink, drive, have leisure activity, not have to work.
- [76:37]
Brett Oppenheim
Medical care, education.
- [76:39]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I mean, really, are we going to be living the definition of utopian? Side. There's a lot of reasons to be optimistic. Stick here.
- [76:44]
Brett Oppenheim
Well, so one, the side point I want to make is most jobs are horrible, okay? Like, we're luxury real estate agents in la. You guys are podcasters, okay? But most jobs suck. I mean, you're, you're driving to work in traffic, you're sitting at a freaking computer in a cubicle. Oh, goddamn day. I mean.
- [77:01]
Jason Oppenheim
Or you're up on a hot roof, nailing.
- [77:03]
Brett Oppenheim
I mean, two by six suck. So let's just be real here. I mean, the less of those, the better, as far as I'm concerned. I don't like, oh, we're going to lose each. Yeah, most of the jobs we're going to lose suck.
- [77:13]
Jason Oppenheim
We were. We were lawyers at big law firms. I'm sorry, but I don't see. There's not a. I would have rather someone just give me 100 grand a year. And by the way, I don't know
- [77:23]
Brett Oppenheim
about ubi, I don't know about you,
- [77:24]
Jason Oppenheim
but I want to address UBI because I think a lot of people. I think a lot of people misinterpret these studies. If you do an analysis of the UBI studies and there have been, which
- [77:31]
Brett Oppenheim
I have, so I'm curious to hear you.
- [77:32]
Jason Oppenheim
There have been multiple studies and I think there's a misdiagnosis of those studies is where people were not satisfied or not after one year happiness. Yes. And they'll study. And my analysis is completely opposite.
- [77:45]
Brett Oppenheim
Okay, but hold on. The studies have shown during longitudinal study. Let me just tell the audience.
- [77:49]
Jason Oppenheim
Okay, fine.
- [77:50]
Brett Oppenheim
This. The studies have shown oftentimes that UBI has been a disaster in the sense.
- [77:53]
Jason Oppenheim
Totally disagree.
- [77:54]
Brett Oppenheim
After one year, their level of happiness. First of all, they're not investing very well. Secondly, their. Their level of happiness after one year is the exact same, if not lower
- [78:02]
Jason Oppenheim
than it was totally the same. Studies say.
- [78:04]
Brett Oppenheim
Okay, go ahead.
- [78:04]
Jason Oppenheim
No, the studies show an increase in happiness for almost everyone, including at different age groups. Even people that were working or. Obviously if you give it to poor people, they're going to increase their happiness over time. Well, the only time that you saw the happiness decrease and actually went below was when they ended the program. Or. Or close to the end of the program when they knew that it was ending. They got anxiety and stress. In a longitudinal UBI practice. Go, go do a deep dive. Right, Right now you will see the study. Yes.
- [78:32]
Brett Oppenheim
Have you read the books about the people that win the lottery and how unhappy they are like three years ago.
- [78:36]
Jason Oppenheim
That's not ubi, just not ubi.
- [78:39]
Brett Oppenheim
I would rather. Can we agree that we would rather UBS or no?
- [78:43]
Jason Oppenheim
What is UBS Services?
- [78:44]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, because that's how I think we should provide.
- [78:47]
Graham Stephan
I've never heard of UBS before.
- [78:49]
Brett Oppenheim
We should provide instead of giving people money, which they usually suck at. Did you see how busy Rodeo Drive was?
- [78:53]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, in.
- [78:54]
Brett Oppenheim
Hold on, let me just make this point. How busy was Rodeo Drive during COVID when we all got the stim. It was insane. People were buying phone people. You're not how to handle discretionary income. It's a fact. I don't care what studies.
- [79:05]
Jason Oppenheim
Who cares? It's going to be a mix of UBI and UBS obviously provide people robots.
- [79:10]
Brett Oppenheim
Look, you get a humanoid robot, you get medical care, you get food, you get et cetera, as opposed to, you
- [79:16]
Jason Oppenheim
get $50,000 called a confluence of the two. It's obviously going to be both. And we're not just giving them money. They can go buy drugs or something.
- [79:21]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't like the idea.
- [79:22]
Jason Oppenheim
Obviously you're going to fine we provide them a humanoid robot. The point is when you.
- [79:27]
Brett Oppenheim
That would be there.
- [79:28]
Jason Oppenheim
There is a lot of studies that show that UBI/UBS works if it is consistent and you don't take it away. So I'm optimistic that we're. That. That humans have always been able to adapt. When we were in, in tribes thousands of years ago, we, we derived satisfaction from different things. We derived it from storytelling, we derived it from religion, we derived it from family. We derived it from, you know, raising children in a collective.
- [79:52]
Brett Oppenheim
There's so many jewelry out of the bones of the animals we killed.
- [79:55]
Jason Oppenheim
Exactly. There's so many ways to de. To derive human purposes. Now it's great that we derive human purpose from work. Why? Because we've been inculcated as children. And capitalism must survive by inculcating the value of work. So I get that. And right now we do drive. But the idea that somehow purpose is inexorably tied to work is. Is, is. Is not. Is simply not the case. We've created that social construct and we can, and we can decouple it and we can reattach, attach purpose to the many other things that I think like
- [80:28]
Brett Oppenheim
family or ethics or hobbies or hobbies or passions or intellectual endeavors.
- [80:34]
Jack
He says that you will be happy to the degree that you are productive.
- [80:38]
Jason Oppenheim
No, well, hold on.
- [80:40]
Brett Oppenheim
That's exactly inconsistent. If, if productive doesn't necessarily mean with work, fine.
- [80:44]
Jason Oppenheim
If you take a family broad, holistic,
- [80:47]
Brett Oppenheim
you can educate yourself. That's productivity. So I don't disagree with Paul hanging out with. Depending on what he means.
- [80:51]
Jason Oppenheim
Talking to family.
- [80:52]
Brett Oppenheim
It depends on what he means by productive. You'd have to follow up on.
- [80:54]
Jason Oppenheim
Fine with point is, it's a very.
- [80:57]
Graham Stephan
It's probably offering some sort of benefit to society that you are contributing this.
- [81:02]
Jason Oppenheim
I, I disagree with the construct because yes, I get. I derive purpose in my life from productivity, from adding, I think adding value to society, from creating from Creating happiness in others solely from that. But. But that's because I am a construct.
- [81:15]
Brett Oppenheim
Your connections with your social structure.
- [81:17]
Jason Oppenheim
I'm a construct of the education, the American capitalist education. So, of course, I derive my. My value from that. But young people can be taught that value, that. That purpose comes from so many different things. And when they grow up, they don't attach it just to work. So what I'm saying is we can decouple.
- [81:32]
Brett Oppenheim
I drive. I drive happiness from friendships, from acquiring knowledge. I love that. From good sex, from good food, from a lot of things that are completely
- [81:44]
Jason Oppenheim
separate from my world, you know, and enjoyable dinners with friends, to traveling and to experiences, to going to an F1 race, to going to the Cannes Film Festival, to hanging out with you guys,
- [81:53]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't think are productive.
- [81:55]
Jason Oppenheim
To buying you guys lunch for 12 straight years.
- [81:57]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't think that that's actually false. I don't think that that's what Graham.
- [82:00]
Jason Oppenheim
It's exactly.
- [82:01]
Brett Oppenheim
Graham hasn't paid for lunch since the early 70s.
- [82:03]
Jason Oppenheim
Okay.
- [82:04]
Jack
I mean, if you. If you want. Yeah, I can pull because you.
- [82:07]
Jason Oppenheim
Wait, hold on. Let me state the fact, and then you can. And then you can disagree.
- [82:11]
Jack
You want to see your.
- [82:11]
Jason Oppenheim
I have been. He has been sponsoring Graham's lunches for over 11 years straight, 99% of Graham's launches, and I'm 80% responsible for his.
- [82:23]
Graham Stephan
One of your shirts, I think.
- [82:25]
Brett Oppenheim
Okay, There you go.
- [82:26]
Graham Stephan
These are your pants.
- [82:27]
Brett Oppenheim
As long as you don't have a
- [82:28]
Jason Oppenheim
receipt from, like, one lunch that you bought at some point, because you did
- [82:30]
Brett Oppenheim
buy lunch at my underwear, they'd be baggy on you.
- [82:34]
Jason Oppenheim
Go ahead. Go. Nothing you can say can disprove this, Graham. Just admit it. What? Just admit that I've been buying you lunch for 12 years.
- [82:43]
Graham Stephan
Yeah. Yeah. But it's not one. So say, oh, you bought one lunch.
- [82:47]
Jack
So I don't necessarily disagree.
- [82:50]
Brett Oppenheim
Go ahead. Let Jack go.
- [82:51]
Jack
Before Jack was born. I don't disagree with you subsidizing Grant Graham's life.
- [82:54]
Jason Oppenheim
That. That.
- [82:55]
Jack
I don't.
- [82:55]
Brett Oppenheim
I don't think it's life.
- [82:56]
Jack
I don't necessarily have a problem with that. But you did just mention that, like, hey, every time I go out with you guys, I pay, and that's actually categorically false.
- [83:02]
Jason Oppenheim
If anything, I have no problem paying.
- [83:04]
Jack
If anything, I actually think it's 2 to 2 right now.
- [83:06]
Jason Oppenheim
Maybe with you, with Jack.
- [83:07]
Brett Oppenheim
Fine with you.
- [83:08]
Jason Oppenheim
But I'm saying.
- [83:09]
Brett Oppenheim
But, Graham, it's.
- [83:09]
Jason Oppenheim
It's probably with me.
- [83:11]
Jack
Because here's the thing.
- [83:12]
Jason Oppenheim
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Jason Oppenheim
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Brett Oppenheim
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Brett Oppenheim
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Brett Oppenheim
Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for indeed sponsored jobs. Okay, well, we're not.
- [84:12]
Jack
This is the last time that we got lucky.
- [84:14]
Graham Stephan
The last.
- [84:14]
Jason Oppenheim
I'm not talking about you.
- [84:15]
Brett Oppenheim
Where was that?
- [84:16]
Jason Oppenheim
I'm not talking about you. I.
- [84:17]
Jack
Let me see. You bought great white melons.
- [84:20]
Graham Stephan
Yeah.
- [84:21]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, Jack fair. We're two and two.
- [84:23]
Brett Oppenheim
But in fairness, you paid for it so you could show your audience that you paid for it.
- [84:26]
Jack
That's not true. I didn't know I was going to bring that.
- [84:27]
Brett Oppenheim
Graham.
- [84:28]
Graham Stephan
He only had the receipt just because.
- [84:31]
Brett Oppenheim
Hell yeah. It's like, can you say, can you. Can you send me the digital receipt of that, please?
- [84:35]
Jason Oppenheim
And, and by the way, I think I've bought Graham hundreds of dinners because what he would do is order a big lunch and then he would pack half of it to go for dinner. So I've really been buying your lunch.
- [84:42]
Jack
So I actually, he's, he's mentioned this plenty of times. So he said it was actually like a fruit Google life hack.
- [84:47]
Graham Stephan
My hack was that you would take the office out to lunch and there would be maybe five to seven people, but everyone would only eat half. And so I would take everybody's halves.
- [84:57]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, also, you know what he would do? What you would do is he would encourage us to get like quesadilla. So they were like discreet, you know, parcels of food that he could take home as opposed to like a half eaten something.
- [85:05]
Jack
He would encourage that.
- [85:06]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, I think he would actually encourage.
- [85:10]
Jack
Don't get. Don't get the soup.
- [85:11]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, don't get the soup. Exactly. Right.
- [85:14]
Graham Stephan
Get a burrito, but split that.
- [85:15]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah.
- [85:15]
Jason Oppenheim
In fact, he would say, oh, he wants the burrito cut in half. Yeah. Or he wants the, the quesadilla.
- [85:19]
Jack
Well, he was picking at your food after you left.
- [85:21]
Jason Oppenheim
We have created wealth for each other independently through completely different approaches. Because I've never been frugal and I'm an ex. I think I'm an example of you can be hard working and successful and be the opposite of frugal and be, you know, wealthy. Whereas you took a different approach.
- [85:36]
Jack
What's the biggest financial Hail Mary you've ever had?
- [85:38]
Brett Oppenheim
You mean?
- [85:39]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, well, I.
- [85:39]
Brett Oppenheim
That opening the office.
- [85:42]
Jason Oppenheim
What do you mean by Hail Mary?
- [85:43]
Jack
Like taking on excessive risk for where you should.
- [85:46]
Graham Stephan
Going all in on one thing.
- [85:47]
Jason Oppenheim
Oh, the office.
- [85:48]
Brett Oppenheim
The first office.
- [85:49]
Jason Oppenheim
I thought Graham was like my first agent. You're my first agent. No, this. This office right here. Well, because I. I signed up for a 10 year lease at I don't know, whatever.
- [85:58]
Graham Stephan
10,000amonth.
- [85:59]
Jason Oppenheim
10,000amonth.
- [86:00]
Brett Oppenheim
Hundreds of thousands of dollars in build
- [86:01]
Jason Oppenheim
out and I had no agents and
- [86:02]
Brett Oppenheim
I had no money.
- [86:03]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, not much money. I had no brokerage. So that was.
- [86:05]
Graham Stephan
How much of your net worth did you put in the build out in the office space?
- [86:09]
Jason Oppenheim
I think it was about 300,000 and it was in 2014. I was probably. 2014. Yeah. I was probably worth about a million dollars. I think I probably. She put about half, about a third of it. But I also was then on the hook for hundreds of thousands of dollars of lease payments.
- [86:25]
Jack
And how confident were you at the
- [86:26]
Jason Oppenheim
time that it was going to work out?
- [86:27]
Brett Oppenheim
70, 80%?
- [86:30]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, yeah. Cause I think it's an interesting question because I think I was naively confident. So. But you know, and I think I almost knew that I was naive, but
- [86:38]
Brett Oppenheim
even at the time. But you were fine with it even at the time. That time I also. Higher than 80.
- [86:42]
Jason Oppenheim
Well, I also had. Had worked hard for a few years and I've always. I also didn't have much concern about going backwards too. You know, I lived in a $1,400 apartment. I didn't. I was happy then. I was happy, you know, while I was doing well in real estate. I don't know. It's not a good question because I think I was naively. I knew that things would work out and at the same time I knew that I would be fine if they didn't. But I think that's a unique situation. I'm not recommending it necessarily. I think it was probably most. 90% of business school students would. That was a dumb investment. Yeah. Arguably one of the biggest differences between you and I, Graham and I think we know each other very well is that I think I spend money on things that make me happy and quality of life. And I think you are generally more, more concerned Sl. Pessimistic. Pessimistic and careful and I, and you live a great quality of life and you're happy. But I, you're less indulgent than I am. And, and I think it's okay. Okay to be indulgent. I don't think it's, it's necessarily beneficial to be going through life spending money based on a worst case scenario. I don't. I think you would be happy in a larger house. I think you, I think you allowing yourself to indulge as long as you can get past the, the mental anxiety that it might create you is, Is a net positive. Had I had your, your approach of, Of. Of anxious pessimism, I wouldn't have opened the office office and I wouldn't have been able to, you know, have that. Have the company and have the access.
- [88:09]
Brett Oppenheim
I would look at it this way, Graham. Can you afford the worst case scenario?
- [88:13]
Graham Stephan
I take the worst case which was the Great Depression of 1929 and then can it get a little worse than that?
- [88:20]
Jason Oppenheim
35% drop?
- [88:21]
Graham Stephan
Yeah, 82. Yeah.
- [88:22]
Jason Oppenheim
I take it deep down the rabbit.
- [88:24]
Graham Stephan
I take an 82% drop. But then I assume I. At the same time my lifestyle has to go up. Let's just say we have kids and then there's, there's a health problem and, and then my parents.
- [88:35]
Brett Oppenheim
Can I, can I counter this?
- [88:36]
Graham Stephan
Yeah, please.
- [88:36]
Brett Oppenheim
During the Great Depression, those who had any amount of wealth after the crash had the best buying opportunity and the best opportunity for appreciation in the last century and appreciation.
- [88:49]
Jason Oppenheim
And that's what.
- [88:50]
Brett Oppenheim
Exactly what I said.
- [88:51]
Jason Oppenheim
I said if you are not forced to sell and if you can weather that worst case scenario, you'll actually, you'll. Every time in American history of the last 150 years that we've seen that type of crash. If you were in. Able to persevere and not be forced to sell that within 10. Within 10 years you'd be wealthier than ever before purchases. But even if you don't, you are wealthier than ever before within 10 years. So just don't. As long as you're my.
- [89:12]
Graham Stephan
My fear is always saying oh be just because for the last 150 years it's done that doesn't mean it's always. Even though I agree that 90 plus
- [89:19]
Jason Oppenheim
it's more likely that AI wipes you out and it doesn't matter.
- [89:23]
Brett Oppenheim
I would say the chances of the existential Threat of AI wiping out humanity is higher than that scenario. A worse, worse than Great Depression type of crash that lasts for multiples longer. That's less than 1% what you're talking about.
- [89:36]
Jason Oppenheim
Anyway, also the house.
- [89:38]
Brett Oppenheim
Let's keep going on that's the main
- [89:39]
Jack
thing is that what I find interesting is whenever Graham is kind of at a crossroads where he's like, should I spend the money? Should I not spend the money? This house, for example, he reached out to Jason to get Jason's opinion on. And Jason gave some crazy numbers in terms of. You're spending half of your income every single year. Graham is spending like less than 2% of what he could withdraw from his investment account every year. Yeah, and so, and, but that still was not necessarily.
- [90:00]
Brett Oppenheim
I, I don't even want to share with your audience what percent of my income. I.
- [90:04]
Jack
What percent of your income?
- [90:05]
Brett Oppenheim
It's embarrassing and I'm not happy about it. But I mean, this is what happens. Your lifestyle gets like, you catch up to your income, your lifestyle just. You just adapt slowly. You know what I mean? And you end up like, how the hell am I spending this every month?
- [90:19]
Jason Oppenheim
He looks at what he spends. I, I don't. I just look to make sure that, that I'm increasing my wealth every year. And if I am, I don't give a shit what I spent.
- [90:26]
Jack
And how do you measure your increased wealth?
- [90:28]
Jason Oppenheim
I do an analysis of my net worth and I.
- [90:31]
Jack
And does it have to go up a certain percentage every year?
- [90:33]
Jason Oppenheim
No, no, no.
- [90:34]
Jack
As long as what percent do you typically go up per year?
- [90:36]
Jason Oppenheim
Oh, of my net worth. I've never looked at it like that, but I generally add 10 million to my net worth every year and I'm spending a shit ton.
- [90:44]
Brett Oppenheim
The advice that I would, that I would give your audience is don't chase wealth. Chase the trajectory of wealth. I would rather, and I would be much happier and sleep much better if I was. If I died at 50 million versus a billion, but I was wealthier every year until that 50 million as opposed to I died at a billion, but I went to a billion and then died to 100 million and then up to 3 billion and then down to 400. That will drive you crazy. And it's not what you want. Even if you die wealthier, it's just not worth it. For your happiness, your peace of mind and your sleep and your stress levels and your, your health. Just wish upon, I wish upon everybody just a trajectory towards becoming wealthier every year. And even if it's much, much slower than you would. Than you would like.
- [91:25]
Jason Oppenheim
And I think on top of that, it's, it's a process. And if you're not enjoying the process, if you're somehow thinking, I'll be happy when I have X money, I could not come up with a worst possible approach to life because one, I guarantee you that will change. Man, I remember the numbers I used to have when I was young, you know, 10, 15 years ago. You, those numbers always increase. And by the way, I would say if you were to ask me the happiest years of my life, although I've had just a wonderful life and I think I'm, you know, I'm very happy right now. But if I had to point, I'd probably be interested in your take. I would probably say Junior College, 18 to 20, where I had very little money. Yeah.
- [92:06]
Brett Oppenheim
No money.
- [92:08]
Jason Oppenheim
And you know, wearing a wife beater and working on my 69 Camaro, you know, five hours a day in a, you know, in a ROP class, working at, as a, as a waiter or in a, as a bar back, hanging out with my buddies, eating the burritos.
- [92:24]
Brett Oppenheim
Responsibility school.
- [92:25]
Jason Oppenheim
We go to Subway, we'd split a foot long to save money. Or we go to the roach coach, you know, and give a burrito probably, probably six times a week or whatever
- [92:31]
Brett Oppenheim
the dollar sub was at Subway. We eat that like five days a week.
- [92:34]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, that's what I was saying.
- [92:35]
Brett Oppenheim
I must have had Subway. I think I had subway 250 times
- [92:38]
Jason Oppenheim
in one day, you know, driving like a, a total beater.
- [92:41]
Brett Oppenheim
I probably would have been like 6 foot 6 if I didn't do that.
- [92:45]
Jason Oppenheim
And so happy. Just really, really happy years, partying, hanging out.
- [92:49]
Brett Oppenheim
I will add to that also that we know a lot of really wealthy people and the relationship between extreme wealth and happiness is disconnected. And beyond that, nobody hits a billion dollars. Never once in the history of billionaires did somebody hit a billion dollar net worth and be like, I'm done, I did it. I can chill.
- [93:06]
Jason Oppenheim
And now I'm happy.
- [93:07]
Brett Oppenheim
It's just not the way it works. Like, oh, 2 billion. Well, that guy's a bigger yacht. Well, that's just human nature. It doesn't change because you're wealthy. It's the same human nature. You still get jealous of people who no have more than you. You don't just get to this point of like, okay, now I really am going to golf every day and be and be and live this amazing lifestyle. Like I thought when I was 17
- [93:23]
Jason Oppenheim
to a certain degree, once you get some money, it's super helpful because if you go to. If you can go to dinner and you can just buy. Buy dinner, you know, if I can take you guys to lunch like I do. Dram wouldn't and, and not have to worry about it. You've Then. Then you're wealthy. The. If the extra million dollars so that I can go buy the John Riggins super bowl jersey and the Ford GT. The, the incremental happiness that I get is like a 01.
- [93:45]
Jack
So what. What incremental happiness really starts to like the, the curve starts to.
- [93:51]
Brett Oppenheim
It depends where you live in. In LA.
- [93:54]
Jason Oppenheim
I'd rather be making $300,000 a year. I'd rather be making a hundred thousand dollars a year living in LA with good friends and a healthy family and, and my little dog and great people in the office than be a billionaire without that.
- [94:09]
Jack
What are the main things that are very much worth spending money on?
- [94:13]
Brett Oppenheim
Business classes.
- [94:14]
Jack
Aside from.
- [94:15]
Jason Oppenheim
You know, it's funny. I used to, I used to actually think that business class was the worst expenditure of. I'd be like how the. Does somebody spend $9,000 when I can fly there for $450? That is the dumbest $9,000.
- [94:26]
Brett Oppenheim
10 hours.
- [94:27]
Jason Oppenheim
And now to me it's like the best money that I could possibly spend. I, I just.
- [94:31]
Brett Oppenheim
But other than that, I would say good food. I love good food.
- [94:36]
Jason Oppenheim
I think vacations. Oh, you know what I would say?
- [94:37]
Brett Oppenheim
Vacations. Yeah.
- [94:38]
Jason Oppenheim
You know what I would say where I enjoy spending money the most is on other people. And I don't mean that to come across as like somehow, you know. No, I, I really don't.
- [94:47]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, that's what I meant.
- [94:48]
Jason Oppenheim
Philanthropy. I like. No, not philanthropy because that, that's not direct.
- [94:54]
Brett Oppenheim
I'm just giving you.
- [94:56]
Jason Oppenheim
I mean I, I do philanthropy, but anyway, I do a lot of. Yeah, I really like being able to. Stupid as this is. I like being able to go to dinner with my friends and getting dinner and just every single time I like to. We're going to Stagecoach. I am getting the house and I really enjoy that I'm getting the artist passes. Not for you. You got to pay for your own. Yeah, but I enjoy. Really take pride in the fact that,
- [95:17]
Brett Oppenheim
that I, you know, to give me an artist pass.
- [95:21]
Jason Oppenheim
It does, it does. Doing things for you does make me enjoy.
- [95:23]
Brett Oppenheim
I'll update you.
- [95:24]
Jason Oppenheim
But I, I enjoy that more than anything because I think the, the, I don't know. The, the best thing you can do with money is, is increase the happiness of those people around you. I'm like Very utilitarian in that respect. So I, I do appreciate.
- [95:36]
Jack
I mean, that's why we enjoy buying you guys lunch.
- [95:38]
Brett Oppenheim
I appreciate it.
- [95:38]
Graham Stephan
It's the least we could do.
- [95:39]
Jason Oppenheim
Lunch in the, in the singular philanthropy.
- [95:42]
Jack
I think we had ponche's tagas before pinchas.
- [95:45]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, you did have. You did give me pinches R. Yeah.
- [95:47]
Graham Stephan
The only other question I was curious, what was the last argument you two had?
- [95:50]
Jason Oppenheim
It's every day. I don't know.
- [95:52]
Brett Oppenheim
Yeah, but, but surprised.
- [95:53]
Jason Oppenheim
We didn't even argue.
- [95:53]
Brett Oppenheim
But we don't argue in the way that we used to. We don't fist fight anymore much.
- [95:59]
Jason Oppenheim
What's last? Fist fight.
- [96:00]
Jack
What's last?
- [96:02]
Brett Oppenheim
We don't really go at it like, the last few years.
- [96:04]
Jason Oppenheim
I think we pushed each other.
- [96:05]
Brett Oppenheim
I think he's finally learned his lesson.
- [96:07]
Jason Oppenheim
A few weeks ago. Yeah.
- [96:08]
Jack
Did you win the last. Last fistfight?
- [96:10]
Jason Oppenheim
No, I beat him up in a parking lot, I think, and the police had to. Had to actually pull me off of him. So I think I did.
- [96:17]
Jack
Wait, hold on. So you had pin. I don't think just keep wailing on him when he was already pinned.
- [96:20]
Brett Oppenheim
Hold on a second.
- [96:20]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah, it's hard to break us up. Hold on. Our friends have had to break winners
- [96:24]
Brett Oppenheim
and losers in our fist fights.
- [96:25]
Jason Oppenheim
Oh, my God. Yes. I, I, I, I can beat Brett up, and I've beat him up.
- [96:27]
Brett Oppenheim
First of all, the only time either of us ever got knocked out was
- [96:30]
Jason Oppenheim
when I. Oh, my God, this story. Brett thinks he knocked I. Literally all I wanted to do, he
- [96:36]
Brett Oppenheim
didn't get up for a while.
- [96:36]
Jason Oppenheim
First, we were like, we were like nine years old. Second of all, I laid there because I wanted him to come back over, so I kicked the out of him, and he was too smart to come back over. That's the only reason I laid there. He tells that story like you knock your eyes closed.
- [96:47]
Brett Oppenheim
What about the time I was pretending like I was hurt where you started bleeding out of your nose when I hit you in the face. And you. That's 18 drops of blood. I'm going to kill you. And he's counting the drops of blood. Like,
- [96:59]
Jason Oppenheim
I think my point is by the fact that Brett remembers the two times that he died. Thousand times.
- [97:05]
Jack
Piece of evidence of one specific.
- [97:06]
Brett Oppenheim
Thank you. I've named two.
- [97:07]
Jason Oppenheim
Jason, I will literally the floor is yours. Give you a piece of evidence right now.
- [97:09]
Brett Oppenheim
The floor is yours.
- [97:10]
Jason Oppenheim
The floor is yours. The floor is going to be yours.
- [97:13]
Brett Oppenheim
It's 2 to year, 2 to 0. Ass beat by your brother.
- [97:17]
Jason Oppenheim
Brett. Let's just be honest. We've been honest this entire podcast. Be honest. I've kicked your ass your entire life. Just be honest 99% of the time
- [97:23]
Brett Oppenheim
in the most extreme examples of getting your ass beat.
- [97:26]
Jason Oppenheim
Oh, my God, he is such a lawyer. Lawyers everything.
- [97:30]
Brett Oppenheim
But in a lot of the. The ass kicking, a lot of the lesser ass kickings, I've been. I've taken the brother victim.
- [97:36]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah. Who benches more between you two? I do. I'm stronger. Actually. He's gotten pretty strong. Pretty strong. For most of our lives, I've been able to. To. To physically dominate him.
- [97:47]
Brett Oppenheim
Well, it's not because of strength. It's because he will bite and scratch. It's just he has no moral virtue. Fighting as I do.
- [97:56]
Jason Oppenheim
I will win. That's what he means.
- [97:57]
Brett Oppenheim
He would beat me up.
- [97:58]
Jason Oppenheim
I will win.
- [97:59]
Brett Oppenheim
Tried to beat me up in front of my mom on her birthday last I'm. Do you remember that? In a five star hotel lobby in front of my mom on her birthday. He has no shame. No shame.
- [98:10]
Graham Stephan
How old?
- [98:10]
Jason Oppenheim
Because Brett has a mouth on it. Because he just doesn't antagonistic and has a mouth. And I. So I would use my physical dominance and Brett would use his mouth and if he mouthed.
- [98:19]
Brett Oppenheim
Could you imagine a. Worth a worse time to do something stupid on your mom's birthday in front of her in the lobby of a five star hotel? Right.
- [98:25]
Jason Oppenheim
You must have said something and it must have been an antagonist.
- [98:28]
Jack
Do you remember what it was that you said?
- [98:29]
Brett Oppenheim
Just stupid stuff. He just knows when he gets mad.
- [98:33]
Jack
How long ago was this?
- [98:34]
Jason Oppenheim
What?
- [98:34]
Brett Oppenheim
Two years ago?
- [98:35]
Graham Stephan
This was only two years last year.
- [98:37]
Jason Oppenheim
I don't remember.
- [98:37]
Brett Oppenheim
Dude, it was in San Francisco when we took mom to the Berkeley speech. It was last year.
- [98:42]
Jason Oppenheim
Yes, it was.
- [98:42]
Brett Oppenheim
It was like a year. A year ago this week. Yeah.
- [98:44]
Jason Oppenheim
And by the way, he was talking and I literally said, bro, say another word and I'm going to take you down in the. And we were in the lobby of a very nice hotel in front of
- [98:52]
Brett Oppenheim
my mom on her.
- [98:52]
Jason Oppenheim
And you know what he did? He wouldn't shut his mouth.
- [98:54]
Brett Oppenheim
She was mortified.
- [98:55]
Graham Stephan
What did you do?
- [98:56]
Brett Oppenheim
Saying, this is what I'm dealing with.
- [98:58]
Jason Oppenheim
He's an antagonist. What did you say after he said that? And then he blames me. Like somehow, like being physical is worth. I just remember his antagonistic anyway.
- [99:05]
Jack
But you didn't. You stopped talking once he said that.
- [99:07]
Jason Oppenheim
No, he didn't. He keeps up. He can't stop talking.
- [99:09]
Jack
But then you didn't take him down though.
- [99:10]
Jason Oppenheim
I did take him down. And then he keeps talking.
- [99:12]
Jack
So you guys actually did end up fighting.
- [99:14]
Jason Oppenheim
Yes, we ended up fighting. Yes, I do remember that. Yes. And I won.
- [99:17]
Brett Oppenheim
But we don't do it nearly as hard.
- [99:18]
Graham Stephan
Pretty soon, you'll be able to settle this with AI.
- [99:20]
Brett Oppenheim
Not our fights. No, not our fight.
- [99:22]
Jason Oppenheim
I think it's the last thing that AI is.
- [99:24]
Brett Oppenheim
But we do it a lot less. A lot. We get along way better than we used to.
- [99:27]
Jack
At what point do you know when to stop fighting?
- [99:29]
Brett Oppenheim
We don't. He doesn't.
- [99:30]
Jason Oppenheim
When we get separated, you know, police, my mom's crying.
- [99:33]
Jack
How long does it take to, like, get over that?
- [99:36]
Jason Oppenheim
No. 10 minutes. Oh, quickly. 10 minutes. It probably took us 30 minutes that day. That was a really bad physical fight. 30.
- [99:42]
Brett Oppenheim
It's really bad.
- [99:43]
Jason Oppenheim
We really got under each other's skin, but within 30 minutes, we were fine. Usually anywhere from 30 seconds to 30 minutes.
- [99:48]
Graham Stephan
It's like the two cats that just,
- [99:50]
Jason Oppenheim
like, tumble, except that one cat's bigger and stronger. But, yes, you.
- [99:54]
Jack
There shouldn't be a fanatic.
- [99:55]
Jason Oppenheim
More like a lion and a cat.
- [99:56]
Jack
There shouldn't be an aspect of his personality that surprises. Surprises you by now.
- [99:59]
Jason Oppenheim
Doesn't surprise me.
- [99:59]
Jack
And so why. But if you're able to predict that he's able to say something, then why?
- [100:03]
Brett Oppenheim
Lack of emotional maturity is the answer to the question you're posing.
- [100:06]
Jason Oppenheim
What? Why you can't stop talking.
- [100:07]
Brett Oppenheim
Why you can't just. Why you can't be antagonistic antagonism without getting physically.
- [100:11]
Jason Oppenheim
Why can't you just take the beating? Or. Or shut your mouth. Or shut your mouth.
- [100:19]
Brett Oppenheim
The worst sentence ever uttered on a podcast in history.
- [100:24]
Graham Stephan
Someone's gonna say, take the mice away at this point.
- [100:27]
Brett Oppenheim
Oh, my God, dude.
- [100:28]
Jason Oppenheim
All right. Was a good one.
- [100:29]
Graham Stephan
All right, well, thank you so much. A lot different than what. I really enjoy this discussion. You know who you would really enjoy talking to is Chris Camilo when it comes to the AI talks, if. If this does well, we'd love to bring in Chris to talk to you about AI Cool.
- [100:43]
Jason Oppenheim
Cool.
- [100:43]
Graham Stephan
He is our AI guy. You'll have a great discussion.
- [100:46]
Jason Oppenheim
Yeah. Brett's so intelligent about this topic. I love. I love that we had the opportunity.
- [100:50]
Graham Stephan
Thank you so much for watching the podcast. Really appreciate it. And if you want to see our next episode, early on Access with Sophie Rain. This is an episode that initially YouTube didn't like it. We had to cut around it. We had to do some censoring. But if you want to see the entire episode in its full form as it is, before it goes public to everyone else, feel free to join as a channel member, get access to this episode along with every other episode, uncut and uncensored. Enjoy. Thank you so much. And until next time, There's a new way to sweetgreen Meat Wraps. Handheld, hearty and made for life on the move. With bold, chef crafted flavors, fresh ingredients
- [101:40]
Jason Oppenheim
and over 40 grams of protein, they're built to satisfy without slowing you down. Try wraps today in the app or@order.sweetgreen.com
- [101:50]
Graham Stephan
available at all participating locations.