Keith Roemer (2:05)

Yeah, not great news, right?

Darian Woods (2:07)

No, we want our wages to be increasing. So when people talk about struggles with the cost of living, that's absolutely true for a lot of Americans, even though inflation is at a relatively moderate 3% inflation. If your bills and groceries are going up 3% but your pay only goes up 1%, that is a problem.

Waylon Wong (2:26)

Uh oh, is this smelling a little like stagflation?

Darian Woods (2:29)

It is not nearly as bad as stagflation in the past, but you could say it's a mini stagflation episode for these households. Stagnant wages but inflation still elevated. And by the way, middle income households were still falling behind too. Their wages shrunk 1%. Once you account for Inflation.

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So.

Darian Woods (2:47)

So we've got low income earners down 2%, middle income down 1%, both falling.

Keith Roemer (2:51)

But Darian, lots of other signs in the economy still look strong, right? The stock market's booming, unemployment is relatively low. Consumer spending has been going up all year.

Darian Woods (3:02)

This puzzle makes a little more sense when you look at the high income earners. Their wages have been growing close to 1% after inflation. That's not amazing growth, but it's still growth. And given that high income earners account for so much of consumer spend, really masking the economic statistics right now. And given that high income earners tend to own more stocks and you've got share prices scaling height after height this year, it's no wonder they're feeling pretty good about the economy and are happy to spend. And this whole phenomenon is known as a K shaped economy.

Keith Roemer (3:39)

The letter K here, Right. The lines for the wealthy are going up and up and up, and the lines for the poor are going down and down and down.

Darian Woods (3:47)

It's a reversal from the years around the pandemic when lower earners incomes were actually growing the fastest. And so this probably explains why many surveys of how people feel about the economy are a little gloomy right now. A recent Harris poll showed that 2/3 of lower income Americans were at least somewhat concerned about losing their job.

Keith Roemer (4:08)

All right, thank you, Darian. Waylon, what do you have for us today?

Waylon Wong (4:12)

My indicator is 50 as in the 50 year mortgage. Something that does not exist in the US right now, but was a big topic of conversation this week. The source of the hubbub was social media posts from President Trump and the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte. They basically floated the idea of a 50 year mortgage for home buyers in.

Keith Roemer (4:35)

The U.S. i guess this means it's time to pour one out for our uniquely American 30 year mortgage.

Waylon Wong (4:41)

Well, don't write the obit yet, Keith. The 30 year is probably sticking around because honestly, this 50 year mortgage idea not exactly taking off. Economists and people from the housing industry did some quick math and the numbers don't look good. Bottom line is a 50 year mortgage would have lower monthly payments than a 30 year one. But a borrower would end up paying a ton more interest during the life of a loan.

Darian Woods (5:07)

Dare I ask how much more?

Waylon Wong (5:09)

Okay, so for this we're going to turn to the ap, which did an analysis and let's say you, Darian, buy a house for around $415,000. You put 10% down, you borrow the rest. The average monthly rate for your mortgage let's say it's 6.17%.

Darian Woods (5:25)

Okay. I've accomplished the American dream.

Waylon Wong (5:27)

White picket fence and everything. The works. Okay. Now the AP says that with a 30 year mortgage, you'll end up paying around $820,000 during that period. Now with a 50 year mortgage, you are looking at total house payments of $1.2 million. All right, that's like $400,000 more.

Keith Roemer (5:49)

That's a whole extra house.

Waylon Wong (5:50)

I know. That is a whole extra house. And there are other issues. With a 50 year mortgage, a homeowner would build equity much slower than with a 30 year mortgage. And also, the typical age of the first time home buyer in the US is 40. So imagine paying off your loan when you're 90. Like, who wants that?

Keith Roemer (6:12)

We should say. Right. The administration is already walking this back a little bit. Right?

Waylon Wong (6:16)

Yeah. I looked at Bill Pulte's X account and it now has a pinned post that says we are actively evaluating portable mortgages.

Darian Woods (6:24)

Portable mortgages. Sounds like material for another indicator of the week for a different time.

Waylon Wong (6:29)

We got to get to Keith's segment.

Keith Roemer (6:30)

All right, Darian, for this one, I need a little participation from the listeners. You here, can you please take your phone out?

Darian Woods (6:37)

Yeah, I got it.

Keith Roemer (6:38)

I want you to open up your favorite rideshare app. You right now are at our bureau in Manhattan.

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Keith Roemer (6:45)

Look to see how much it would cost you to get home to your apartment.

Darian Woods (6:48)

A normal Uber x. Here we go. $72.

Waylon Wong (6:51)

Okay, so that's $72.

Keith Roemer (6:53)

It's expensive, but it was really easy. Right. Like, and what I had you do, that is what most people who use one of these apps do. They open one app, they get a price, they wait for their car. But Darian, according to a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, that is a big mistake because of course there is more than one ride sharing app and those apps often have different prices for the exact same route. According to estimates in this paper by Jeffrey Fawcett, Michael Luca and Ye Jia Xu, New York City's Uber and Lyft users are spending $300 million a year more than they need to.

Darian Woods (7:32)

Wow.

Keith Roemer (7:32)

If they just compared prices. Took Lyft when it was cheaper, took Uber when it was ch. $300 million in total savings.

Waylon Wong (7:40)

You could take out so many 50 year mortgages with $300 million. And we're using New York as an example. But I'm assuming it's happening all over, right, that people are not comparison shopping.

Keith Roemer (7:51)

According to the paper. No, they do not. The authors Found that of the people who opened one of Uber or Lyft on any given day, only about one in six even bothered to open the other app.

Waylon Wong (8:02)

I actually only use Lyft. I don't have the Uber app downloaded on my phone. So I am one of these people who would never comparison well and in some instances.

Keith Roemer (8:10)

Right. It makes sense not to comparison shop. Like, forget Uber and Lyft for a second. Like, if you're talking ice cream stands in your town and there's two of them, but they're 10 miles apart. Right. You're not going to drive back and forth to make sure you're getting the best price on ice cream. And this is an example of what economists call a search friction. You know, time or lack of information or distance, anything that keeps you from making the best, most economic purchase.

Darian Woods (8:35)

But this friction is incredibly minimal. They're literally right next to each other.

Waylon Wong (8:41)

Yeah, they're 10 millimeters apart.

Keith Roemer (8:42)

Yeah, they're not 10 miles apart, they're 10 millimeters apart. So the search friction here is, I guess, laziness. Also, apparently people do less searching around on mobile devices compared to computers because the screens are smaller, so it's harder.

Waylon Wong (8:57)

You know, this whole thing about how millennials and, like, older folks don't like to do big purchases on their phones or, like, they don't like to shop on their ph. I have a really hard time buying airline tickets on phones. You know, I always want to be on a laptop.

Darian Woods (9:12)

Seem like a serious place to be doing serious purchases.

Waylon Wong (9:14)

Well, yeah. And also the screens are smaller. So if you're comparing fares and stuff, I do find it very cumbersome to be on the phone to do that kind of stuff.

Darian Woods (9:21)

You gotta have, like, multiple tabs or, like.

Keith Roemer (9:23)

Waylon, we're just saying millennials and older people.

Waylon Wong (9:26)

Now, is that insulting?

Keith Roemer (9:29)

As a member of the older people, I'm not sure how I feel.

Darian Woods (9:34)

Gen X Erasia, yet again, you're the.

Waylon Wong (9:36)

Greatest generation to me.

Keith Roemer (9:37)

Keith, I need to. I need a bath. Okay, I'm going back to the paper. The paper importantly says this for all members of all ages. If users would just comparison shop between Uber and Lyft, they would probably save themselves about 14% a ride on average.

Darian Woods (9:57)

So I'm going to open up Lyft. All right, that is 79.99. So, Waylon, you would have been paying an $8, roughly Lyft premium if you were to just open up Lyft.

Keith Roemer (10:09)

Check both apps, folks. Check both apps.

Darian Woods (10:12)

Keith, you've been a delightful addition, and you might have saved us all money.

Keith Roemer (10:15)

Thanks for having me.

Waylon Wong (10:16)

This episode was produced by Angel Carreras with engineering by Jimmy Keeley. It was fact checked by Cooper Kass, McKim and Sierra Juarez. Kinkannon is our show's editor and the Indicator is good. A pretty production of npr.

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