A little doomsday feeling is weighing on the economy

Summary

The Indicator from Planet Money: "A Little Doomsday Feeling Is Weighing on the Economy"

Published: December 4, 2025
Hosts: Robert Smith & Darian Woods
Special Guests: Tom Barkin (President, Richmond Fed); Scott Turner (True Timber Arborists)

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Overview

This episode dives into the latest Beige Book—the Federal Reserve’s collection of economic anecdotes from across the country. The hosts playfully celebrate the Beige Book’s unique storytelling style through their recurring “Beige-ing Awards,” recognizing standout entries among the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks. With the government returning from a shutdown, they focus on both the slowdowns and surprising bright spots in the U.S. economy, highlighting uncertainty and a pervasive “doomsday feeling.” Featured is a special field report with the Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin, emphasizing the nuanced, ground-level mood shaping economic insight today.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Spotlight on the Beige Book (00:11–02:42)

• The Beige Book, long considered an “obscure government report,” is praised by Fed Chair Jay Powell for its qualitative insight into the economy—a nod the hosts relish.
  • Quote:
    • Jay Powell (as played by Cooper Gaspim): "I don't know of any source of sort of qualitative information about the economy that even approaches this." (00:59)
  • Robert and Darian appreciate the recognition, joking that Powell “didn’t do the most important part: he didn’t give an award for the best entry.”
• Beige-ing Awards: The podcast’s tradition celebrating the art of telling economic stories, given to the most memorable or revealing Beige Book anecdotes.

Runner-Up Awards: Tattoos and Data Centers (02:57–03:59)

• Kansas City Fed:
  • A business contacts slowdown, but with a glass-half-full twist:
    • Quote:
      • "One firm remarked that now was the best time to get a tattoo as even top artists have more open appointments than usual." (03:08, Robert Smith)
  • The hosts note this as an unexpected perk of a softer economy.
• Cleveland Fed:
  • Contrasts slowdown worries with a boom in artificial intelligence data centers.
    • Quote:
      • "Some described a collective holding of breath as these fast-paced buildouts became a primary driver of demand." (03:34, Robert Smith)
  • Darian finds the “collective holding of breath” apt for today’s high-wire feeling amid AI expansion.

Special Award: Richmond Fed & Tom Barkin (03:59–09:21)

• Lifetime Achievement: Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, honored for his hands-on, person-centric approach to gathering anecdotes.
  • Barkin values fieldwork, often attending 150+ live events a year.
    • Quote:
      • "We know we're in this low hire, low fire environment. Why aren't they hiring? What's stopping them? Demand's good. Why aren't you hiring?... I'm trying to get ahead of the data. I'm trying to understand the nuance. I'm trying to get my mind around the turning points." (04:59, Tom Barkin)
• On-the-Ground Reporting at Richmond Event (05:28–09:21)
  • At a CEOs luncheon, most report business as “fine” but share widespread anxiety about “what everyone else is worried about.”
    • Quote:
      • "Just general uncertainty that people feel around. Should I be holding some money in my pocket? You know, a little doomsday feeling around what our politics and what our government is doing, that makes people maybe a little tighter with keeping some money in the mattress." (06:16, Scott Turner)
  • Barkin reflects these worries when speaking to the group:
    • Sectors like AI, energy, Wall Street, and pharmaceuticals are “hot.”
    • Sectors reliant on lower-income consumers, or impacted by tariffs (farmers, manufacturers), are struggling.
      • Quote:
        • "If you build data centers or you provide energy or...trade in Wall street...then your economy is hot. But if you're a farmer or a realtor or a manufacturer hurt by tariffs...then you're struggling." (06:48, Tom Barkin)
  • Workforce Mismatch:
    • Concern expressed about over-educated young people unable to find jobs, and the lack of interest in trades.
    • Barkin points to community college students avoiding manufacturing due to generational layoff trauma.
      • Quote:
        • "[Students] said my dad was in furniture manufacturing. He got laid off. Why would I want to go there?" (07:45, Tom Barkin)
    • Solution leans on incentives for vocational training and lifetime careers in blue-collar fields.
  • Economic Therapy: The value lies not in predicting the future, but synthesizing diverse narratives.
    • Quote:
      • "A single anecdote is interesting...but it doesn't drive my colleagues to have different policy views. But...if you've invested in a serious way over a bunch of time...I think people will listen to that." (08:55, Tom Barkin)

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Memorable Moments & Tone

• The hosts’ playful rivalry with Jay Powell about the Beige Book’s newfound fame.
• Lively depiction of fieldwork: Barkin mingling with business owners and the tree-trimmer in a red plaid shirt.
• The “doomsday feeling”—a phrase capturing widespread economic anxiety even among those doing “fine.”
• The juxtaposition of high-flying AI optimism and caution against growing employment mismatches.
• The podcast’s unique blend of humor (“glass half full,” “Beige-ing Awards”) with grounded, real-people stories.

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Key Timestamps

• 00:11 — Opening, Jay Powell talks up the Beige Book
• 02:57 — Runner-up Beige-ing Award: Kansas City (tattoos)
• 03:24 — Runner-up Beige-ing Award: Cleveland (AI data centers)
• 03:59 — Winner: Richmond Fed gets the “lifetime achievement” Beige-ing Award
• 05:28 — Reporting from Richmond: Business confidence and “doomsday feeling”
• 06:48 — Tom Barkin on sectoral differences: winners and losers in the current economy
• 07:27 — Concerns over college graduates’ employment and industry perceptions
• 08:55 — Barkin on the role and impact of anecdotes within Federal Reserve deliberations
• 09:21 — Closing congratulations and return to the podcast’s affectionate nerd-dom of economic storytelling

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

The episode is a highly relatable and brisk tour of how real people and local economies are feeling right now, as captured in the Fed’s Beige Book. It features smart anecdotes about slowing consumer spending, AI optimism, and mismatches in the workforce—set against a lightly comedic, award-style format. The overall mood is one of economic anxiety, even among those doing just fine, with a gracious nod to the importance—and limitations—of storytelling in figuring out what comes next.

Transcript

[NPR Announcer]

Npr.

[Robert Smith]

Darian, you know that feeling when you love an obscure band and suddenly the band blows up big? Yeah.

[Darian Woods]

There's a little bit of pride, a little bit of superiority.

[Robert Smith]

We were there first, right? Well, I was listening to the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell give a speech and all of a sudden he brought up our favorite obscure government report, the Beige Book.

[Cooper Gaspim]

So let me say a word about the Beige Book. So there are 12 reserve banks, as you know, around the country and they do a deep dive and they collect lots and lots of information about the economy.

[Darian Woods]

And so it's like he's doing the show for us.

[Robert Smith]

Right. Powell walks through how the Beige Book works just like we do how the regional feds gather stories about the economy.

[Cooper Gaspim]

And that that information gets collated and put into the, what we call the Beige Book because it's beige and we.

We'Re not that original. And I have to say there, I don' I don't know of any source of sort of qualitative information about the economy that even approaches this.

[Darian Woods]

That's a five star rating right there.

[Robert Smith]

I will say even though Powell talked about the Beige Book, he didn't do the most important part. He didn't give an award for the best entry.

[Darian Woods]

Thankfully, we still have our jobs.

[Robert Smith]

It's the Beijing Awards our eight times a year salute to the art and science of telling stories about the economy. I'm Robert Smith.

[Darian Woods]

And I'm Darian Woods. While the government was closed, the Beige Book was still churning out anecdotes. And we'll hear some of those on.

[Robert Smith]

The show and we'll give a special Beige award out in the field. Sometimes the best way to figure out what's going on is to just ask people what's going on.

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Support for NPR and the following message come from Warby Parker. The one stop shop for all your vision needs. They offer expertly crafted prescription eyewear plus contacts, eye exams and more for everything you need to see. Visit your nearest Warby Parker store or head to warbyparker.com this message comes from Schwab. Everyone has moments when they could have done better. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education and human help when you need it. This message comes from Capital One. Say hello to stress free subscription management. Easily track block or cancel recurring charges right from the Capital One mobile app. Simple as that. Learn [e-mail] subscriptions terms and conditions apply.

[Robert Smith]

Always good to remind everyone how this award show works. There are 12 regional banks in the Federal Reserve System. Well, Jay Powell already said all this, right? Yes. Each one studies their local economy, has their own section in the Beige Book. We give awards to the and across.

[Darian Woods]

The most recent Beige Book there were reports of the consumer economy slowing. But we had to give a runner up award to the Kansas City Fed who gave some unusual advice.

[Robert Smith]

I will read it. Quote, one firm remarked that now was the best time to get a tattoo as even top artists have more open appointments than usual. It's a real glass half full way of looking at a slowdown. At least there's no waiting line for tattoos.

[Darian Woods]

We also wanted to give a runner up award to the Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland who pointed out that there was at least one industry that was booming, AI data centers.

[Robert Smith]

But as they say in the Beige Book, quote, some described a collective holding of breath as these fast paced buildouts became a primary driver of demand.

[Darian Woods]

A collective holding of breath. I love that line because it does seem like we're watching a bit of a high wire act with the AI buildout.

[Robert Smith]

Yeah, we all hold our breath as we see AI doing flips and twirls and catches, all without a net.

[Darian Woods]

All right, so now it's time for our big winner and it's a special one. The envelope please. The Beijing goes to the Richmond Fed.

[Robert Smith]

We actually decided to give this award before the Beige Book came out as a sort of lifetime achievement award. I was traveling down to Richmond, Virginia to follow around the president of the Richmond Fed, Tom Barkin. And so I brought news that he had also won the beige. Congratulations, Tom.

[Tom Barkin]

Thank you. I've been needing one for my desk.

[Robert Smith]

Yeah, it's virtual but fair enough. Yeah.

[Darian Woods]

So it doesn't add to your baggage travel allowance.

[Robert Smith]

Yes, it was easy to bring. Tom Barkin won this special beige because he embodies the spirit of the Beige Book. He loves to travel around his district and get people's stories about the economy. When we talked to him on November 19, he he had already done about 150 live events this year with students, workers, business owners and he loves to ask these big open ended questions.

[Tom Barkin]

We know we're in this low hire, low fire environment. Why aren't they hiring? What's stopping them? Demand's good. Why aren't you hiring? So I'm always trying to sort that out. Layoffs. One thing that's true about layoffs is you don't just wake up in the morning and do them, you have to plan them. So I'm trying to ask the big companies I talk to, are you Planning any. When are they coming? What would you think? Because I'm trying to get ahead of the data. I'm trying to understand the nuance. I'm trying to get my mind around the turning points.

[Robert Smith]

I followed Tom to one of his events at a ballroom at the University of Richmond, the quarterly luncheon of the Virginia CEOs Group. There are some fancy bigwigs here, but I spot a guy dressed in more casual work gear.

[Scott Turner]

My name is Scott Turner. I'm the founder of True Timber Arborists and Riverside Outfitters here in Richmond, Virginia.

[Robert Smith]

I have to say I picked you out because in a room full of suits, you're wearing red plaid.

[Scott Turner]

That's right. One of the reasons I chose my profession was so I could keep dressing up like a little kid and not, you know, wear the monkey suits.

[Robert Smith]

Scott's company trims trees and takes tourists on rafts down the James River. It's as fun as it sounds like, and in fact, like a lot of people here. He says his business is doing just fine. But he worries mostly because everyone else is worried.

[Scott Turner]

Just general uncertainty that people feel around. Should I be holding some money in my pocket? You know, a little doomsday feeling around what our politics and what our government is doing, that makes people maybe a little tighter with keeping some money in the mattress.

[Robert Smith]

The president of the Richmond Fed, Tom Barkin, gets to the event early. He stays late, shakes hands, asks questions. How do you set your prices? He asks. How do you know when you can raise prices and when the lunch gets served? Barkin takes the stage and basically reflects back what he's been hearing.

[Tom Barkin]

I will say, in our outreach, the feel is extraordinarily different by sector. If you build data centers or you provide energy or you sell to higher income consumers, or you trade in Wall street or you build pharmaceutical plants, then your economy is hot. But if you're a farmer or a realtor or a manufacturer hurt by tariffs or you're dependent on lower income consumers, then you're struggling.

[Robert Smith]

When it's time for questions, the tree trimmer in the red plaid jacket stands up. Scott Turner says he's worried about the young people with college degrees not finding jobs. He says he offers jobs to a lot of college graduates, even if they don't actually need all of that book learning.

[Scott Turner]

I mean, I have a great job offering, but you didn't have to invest 200,000 in an education to get my job offering. What does that do to everybody if the students stop finding placement?

[Robert Smith]

Tom Barkin answers that it is a real challenge balancing the right kind of training with the right kind of jobs that are actually out there.

[Tom Barkin]

I was in Hickory, North Carolina. I did a session with a bunch of furniture manufacturers and they were complaining about their lack of people. And then I did a session with a bunch of students at a community college and I asked why they didn't go into furniture manufacturing and they said my dad was in furniture manufacturing. He got laid off. Why would I want to go there?

[Robert Smith]

Tom says you have to look at providing incentives for blue collar training that make sure that they can not just get well paying jobs now but have a whole lifetime career. It's an interesting give and take. During the luncheon, Tom Barkin doesn't try to predict the future. People don't actually demand inside info from him. Everyone is just listening to what everyone else is going through. It's kind of like economic therapy. And Tom Market doesn't make any broad conclusions from what he hears. He says the mood is different in bigger growing cities like Richmond than it is in small towns. He hears different complaints in red states and blue states. He may talk to hundreds of people in his travels, but the Beige Book teams talk to thousands to put together the book. Next week when he travels to Washington D.C. for the meeting of the Federal Reserve, he'll bring some of these stories with him and and they do make their way into the conversation.

[Tom Barkin]

A single anecdote is interesting, sometimes amusing if you read the transcripts, but it doesn't drive my colleagues to have different policy views. But I think if you've invested in a serious way over a bunch of time and proven that you could bring advantage insights coming out of what you've learned, not from a story about one restaurateur, but from a synthesis or conclusions out of what you're learning. I think people will listen to that.

[Robert Smith]

Congratulations again to the Richmond Fed for the special Beijing Award in December.

[Darian Woods]

And now that the government is open and producing data again, maybe the Beige Book will return to its place of obscurity just for those like us, Robert, who are in the know.

This episode was produced by Cooper Gaspim with engineering by Sophie MacArthur. It was fact checked by Tyler Jones. Cake and Cannon edits the show and the indicator is a production of npr.

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