The Indicator from Planet Money: "A Little Doomsday Feeling Is Weighing on the Economy"

Published: December 4, 2025
Hosts: Robert Smith & Darian Woods
Special Guests: Tom Barkin (President, Richmond Fed); Scott Turner (True Timber Arborists)

Overview

This episode dives into the latest Beige Book—the Federal Reserve’s collection of economic anecdotes from across the country. The hosts playfully celebrate the Beige Book’s unique storytelling style through their recurring “Beige-ing Awards,” recognizing standout entries among the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks. With the government returning from a shutdown, they focus on both the slowdowns and surprising bright spots in the U.S. economy, highlighting uncertainty and a pervasive “doomsday feeling.” Featured is a special field report with the Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin, emphasizing the nuanced, ground-level mood shaping economic insight today.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Spotlight on the Beige Book (00:11–02:42)

• The Beige Book, long considered an “obscure government report,” is praised by Fed Chair Jay Powell for its qualitative insight into the economy—a nod the hosts relish.
  • Quote:
    • Jay Powell (as played by Cooper Gaspim): "I don't know of any source of sort of qualitative information about the economy that even approaches this." (00:59)
  • Robert and Darian appreciate the recognition, joking that Powell “didn’t do the most important part: he didn’t give an award for the best entry.”
• Beige-ing Awards: The podcast’s tradition celebrating the art of telling economic stories, given to the most memorable or revealing Beige Book anecdotes.

Runner-Up Awards: Tattoos and Data Centers (02:57–03:59)

• Kansas City Fed:
  • A business contacts slowdown, but with a glass-half-full twist:
    • Quote:
      • "One firm remarked that now was the best time to get a tattoo as even top artists have more open appointments than usual." (03:08, Robert Smith)
  • The hosts note this as an unexpected perk of a softer economy.
• Cleveland Fed:
  • Contrasts slowdown worries with a boom in artificial intelligence data centers.
    • Quote:
      • "Some described a collective holding of breath as these fast-paced buildouts became a primary driver of demand." (03:34, Robert Smith)
  • Darian finds the “collective holding of breath” apt for today’s high-wire feeling amid AI expansion.

Special Award: Richmond Fed & Tom Barkin (03:59–09:21)

• Lifetime Achievement: Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, honored for his hands-on, person-centric approach to gathering anecdotes.
  • Barkin values fieldwork, often attending 150+ live events a year.
    • Quote:
      • "We know we're in this low hire, low fire environment. Why aren't they hiring? What's stopping them? Demand's good. Why aren't you hiring?... I'm trying to get ahead of the data. I'm trying to understand the nuance. I'm trying to get my mind around the turning points." (04:59, Tom Barkin)
• On-the-Ground Reporting at Richmond Event (05:28–09:21)
  • At a CEOs luncheon, most report business as “fine” but share widespread anxiety about “what everyone else is worried about.”
    • Quote:
      • "Just general uncertainty that people feel around. Should I be holding some money in my pocket? You know, a little doomsday feeling around what our politics and what our government is doing, that makes people maybe a little tighter with keeping some money in the mattress." (06:16, Scott Turner)
  • Barkin reflects these worries when speaking to the group:
    • Sectors like AI, energy, Wall Street, and pharmaceuticals are “hot.”
    • Sectors reliant on lower-income consumers, or impacted by tariffs (farmers, manufacturers), are struggling.
      • Quote:
        • "If you build data centers or you provide energy or...trade in Wall street...then your economy is hot. But if you're a farmer or a realtor or a manufacturer hurt by tariffs...then you're struggling." (06:48, Tom Barkin)
  • Workforce Mismatch:
    • Concern expressed about over-educated young people unable to find jobs, and the lack of interest in trades.
    • Barkin points to community college students avoiding manufacturing due to generational layoff trauma.
      • Quote:
        • "[Students] said my dad was in furniture manufacturing. He got laid off. Why would I want to go there?" (07:45, Tom Barkin)
    • Solution leans on incentives for vocational training and lifetime careers in blue-collar fields.
  • Economic Therapy: The value lies not in predicting the future, but synthesizing diverse narratives.
    • Quote:
      • "A single anecdote is interesting...but it doesn't drive my colleagues to have different policy views. But...if you've invested in a serious way over a bunch of time...I think people will listen to that." (08:55, Tom Barkin)

Memorable Moments & Tone

• The hosts’ playful rivalry with Jay Powell about the Beige Book’s newfound fame.
• Lively depiction of fieldwork: Barkin mingling with business owners and the tree-trimmer in a red plaid shirt.
• The “doomsday feeling”—a phrase capturing widespread economic anxiety even among those doing “fine.”
• The juxtaposition of high-flying AI optimism and caution against growing employment mismatches.
• The podcast’s unique blend of humor (“glass half full,” “Beige-ing Awards”) with grounded, real-people stories.

Key Timestamps

• 00:11 — Opening, Jay Powell talks up the Beige Book
• 02:57 — Runner-up Beige-ing Award: Kansas City (tattoos)
• 03:24 — Runner-up Beige-ing Award: Cleveland (AI data centers)
• 03:59 — Winner: Richmond Fed gets the “lifetime achievement” Beige-ing Award
• 05:28 — Reporting from Richmond: Business confidence and “doomsday feeling”
• 06:48 — Tom Barkin on sectoral differences: winners and losers in the current economy
• 07:27 — Concerns over college graduates’ employment and industry perceptions
• 08:55 — Barkin on the role and impact of anecdotes within Federal Reserve deliberations
• 09:21 — Closing congratulations and return to the podcast’s affectionate nerd-dom of economic storytelling

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

The episode is a highly relatable and brisk tour of how real people and local economies are feeling right now, as captured in the Fed’s Beige Book. It features smart anecdotes about slowing consumer spending, AI optimism, and mismatches in the workforce—set against a lightly comedic, award-style format. The overall mood is one of economic anxiety, even among those doing just fine, with a gracious nod to the importance—and limitations—of storytelling in figuring out what comes next.