A polite message from Canada to the U.S.

Summary

Summary of "A Polite Message from Canada to the U.S."
The Indicator from Planet Money
Release Date: February 26, 2025

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Introduction

In the episode titled "A Polite Message from Canada to the U.S.," NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money delves into the strained economic and political relationship between the United States and Canada, particularly in the wake of former President Donald Trump's contentious policies. Hosted by Waylon Wong, and featuring insights from Robert Smith and economist Armin Yelnizian, the episode explores the deep economic interdependence of the two nations and offers Canadian perspectives on potential lessons for the U.S.

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Trump’s Tariff Policies and Canadian Reactions

The episode opens with Robert Smith expressing his frustration over Trump's fluctuating tariff policies towards Canada. Smith, a long-time resident in the U.S. but a native Canadian, articulates the emotional turmoil experienced by many Canadians:

"Donald Trump's strange beef with my homeland is bringing out the gentle snow person that was living inside of me" [00:22].

Smith highlights the inconsistency in Trump's approach—from initiating a 25% tariff on Canadian goods to abruptly suspending it, only to later suggest that Canada could become the "51st state," a notion that has enraged many Canadians:

"You can pry the maple leaf flag from my cold, dead hands... it ain't gonna happen" [01:14].

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Economic Interdependence Between the U.S. and Canada

Armin Yelnizian reinforces the notion of profound economic ties, emphasizing that integrating the two nations economically as the 51st state would offer no substantial financial benefits:

"A combined U.S. and Canada would not be richer. We'd be exactly the same. We are about as integrated as you could get" [04:47].

The discussion traces the historical economic collaboration dating back to World War II, illustrating how wartime production evolved into a robust post-war trade relationship. The episode underscores how oil price shocks in the 1970s further entwined the economies, particularly through Canadian crude supporting U.S. refineries.

"The big one is that a combined U.S. and Canada would not be richer" [04:41].

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Demographic Challenges and Labor Market Dynamics

Both nations face similar demographic challenges, notably the retirement of baby boomers and a shrinking labor force. Yelnizian points out:

"More people are aging out of the labor market than coming into it. If you don't like immigrants, expect an economic slowdown" [06:07].

The episode highlights the critical need for workforce renewal through immigration to sustain economic growth and mitigate the effects of an aging population.

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Canadian Lessons for the U.S. Economy

Yelnizian offers three key areas where the U.S. could learn from Canada:

1. Immigration Policies: Canada’s point-based immigration system prioritizes education, work experience, and language skills, making it one of the most innovative in the world. Approximately a quarter of Canada's population is foreign-born, compared to about 13% in the U.S.

   "About a quarter of its population is foreign born. It's only about 13" [07:21].

2. Universal Healthcare: Canada’s government-managed healthcare system results in lower costs and longer life expectancy compared to the U.S. Moreover, it provides benefits to private businesses by reducing their healthcare expenses, as exemplified by Canadian auto manufacturers.

   "Canadians pay less and live longer than in the US" [07:36].

3. Support for Women in the Workforce: Canada has successfully integrated more women into the workforce over the past two decades by offering affordable, high-quality childcare and access to post-secondary education. This contrasts with the U.S., where such support systems are less robust.

   "They could deploy it because they had access to cheap and high quality childcare" [08:22].

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Strengthening Economic Resilience and Diversification

In response to Trump’s rhetoric, Canadians are contemplating diversifying their trade partners beyond the U.S., looking towards Europe and Asia to strengthen economic resilience. Smith remarks on the newfound unity and determination among Canadians:

"This bizarre moment has put a bit of steel in our spine... maybe this is the silver lining to this crazy moment" [09:26].

The episode suggests that this introspection and strategic diversification could serve as a foundation for a more robust Canadian economy, independent yet still intertwined with global markets.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes on a hopeful note, asserting that while the U.S. and Canada are deeply interconnected, Canada is taking proactive steps to enhance its economic stability and autonomy. Smith humorously dismisses the idea of the U.S. absorbing Canada, emphasizing national pride:

"Well, I think our approach would be, would you like to join us? Not we're taking you over... Sorry. Not sorry" [10:03].

Ultimately, "A Polite Message from Canada to the U.S." offers a comprehensive examination of the complexities in U.S.-Canada relations, underscoring the importance of mutual economic strategies and learning from each other's policies to navigate shared challenges.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Robert Smith [00:22]: "Donald Trump's strange beef with my homeland is bringing out the gentle snow person that was living inside of me."

• Robert Smith [01:14]: "You can pry the maple leaf flag from my cold, dead hands."

• Armin Yelnizian [04:47]: "A combined U.S. and Canada would not be richer. We'd be exactly the same. We are about as integrated as you could get."

• Armin Yelnizian [06:07]: "More people are aging out of the labor market than coming into it. If you don't like immigrants, expect an economic slowdown."

• Armin Yelnizian [07:21]: "About a quarter of its population is foreign born. It's only about 13."

• Armin Yelnizian [07:36]: "Canadians pay less and live longer than in the US."

• Armin Yelnizian [08:22]: "They could deploy it because they had access to cheap and high quality childcare."

• Robert Smith [09:26]: "Maybe this is the silver lining to this crazy moment."

• Robert Smith [10:03]: "Sorry. Not sorry."

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Production Credits

This episode was produced by Cooper Katz McKim, engineered by Jimmy Keeley, and fact-checked by Sarah Juarez. Edited by Kicking Cannon, another Canadian, The Indicator is a production of NPR.

Transcript

[Waylon Wong]

Npr.

[Robert Smith]

It has been an emotional couple of weeks for us Canadians.

[Armin Yelnizian]

Uh, Robert Smith, I know you were born north of the border, but you've been in the US a while now.

[Robert Smith]

More than 30 years. But Donald Trump's strange beef with my homeland is bringing out the gentle snow person that was living inside of me not believe that he started out his administration with a 25% tariff on the sweet, sweet country of Canada. Then he suddenly suspends it. Then he said it was going forward. Did I imagine this whole thing? And then Trump started to talk about Canada as the 51st state, which just made me and most other Canadians furious.

[Armin Yelnizian]

I mean, you're describing denial, anger. It's like you're going through the stages of grief.

[Robert Smith]

Okay, you know, I have definitely been bargaining, thinking maybe this is a negotiating ploy for something, and I am depressed about the whole thing.

[Armin Yelnizian]

So are you here today to tell us you've moved to the fifth stage of grief? Are you at acceptance of Canada as the 51st state?

[Robert Smith]

Hell no. You can pry the maple leaf flag from my cold, dead hands. Well, I mean, a Canadian's hands are always cold, but you understand, it ain't gonna happen.

[Armin Yelnizian]

This is Vindicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong here with grieving and aggrieved canon Robert Smith.

[Robert Smith]

Today on the show, we flip the Trumpian script. Rather than drop rhetorical bombs, perhaps we should drop some knowledge about how linked our economies already are because Canada has.

[Armin Yelnizian]

More to offer than cheap oil and rare earths and, you know, poutine. It's tackling all the same economic problems as the US Is. And maybe, just maybe, the Canadians have some things to teach us.

[Waylon Wong]

Foreign.

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[Robert Smith]

In my hand a list of awesome jokes about Canada as the 51st state and I will not be delivering any of them. As I talked with people back in Canada, they told me that this is no time for joking.

[Armin Yelnizian]

Over the weekend there was a joint radio call in show on U.S. public radio stations and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. The Canadians are politely peeved.

[Robert Smith]

I personally think it's highly concerning and reprehensible.

[Capital One]

We're talking about insane aggression here.

[Robert Smith]

I think it's despicable, extremely dangerous, and it's reckless. The former finance minister of the country just called Trump the biggest threat to Canada since World War II. You can even feel this among academics and they rarely get riled up. I called up a Canadian economist, Armin Yelnizian, and was just getting some background to start the interview. What is the temperature right now in Ottawa?

[Waylon Wong]

Minus 23 centigrade.

[Robert Smith]

What is this centigrade thing?

[Waylon Wong]

I'm sorry, we are a distinct society, man. Let's cut to the chase. The dream of the 51st state is fantasyland. It will never happen. We do not want to be the 51st state.

[Robert Smith]

Okay? Armin Yelniesyan has worked as a policy advisor for the Canadian government and is now the Atkinson Fellow on the future of Workers. After she gave me a million cultural reasons why Canada does not want to join the U.S. we moved on to the economic reasons.

[Armin Yelnizian]

And the big one is that a combined U.S. and Canada would not be richer.

[Waylon Wong]

We'd be exactly the same. We are about as integrated as you could get.

[Robert Smith]

Which when you think about it, right, the total amount of stuff would stay the same. The companies and the jobs would stay the same. There might be fewer tariffs and traffic jams across the border, but. But that is not a solution to economic problems. Just ask Europe, Armin says.

[Armin Yelnizian]

What you need to realize is that even though Americans perhaps don't think much about Canada, we are floating in the same boat in the waters of the global economy.

[Robert Smith]

It really started when we fought together against the Nazis in World War II. We both built these factories to make guns and tanks. And when the war was over, these factories turned to consumer goods, things like cars. US Factories started to get parts from Canadian factories and vice versa.

[Waylon Wong]

Then our economies became intertwined after the two global price shocks in oil in the 1970s with extracting more Canadian crude to feed the refineries in the United States.

[Armin Yelnizian]

But what really unites Canada and the U.S. economically is that we face the same existential challenge, demographics. Just like the U.S. canada had a baby boom.

[Robert Smith]

And just like the U.S. those boomers are now retiring. And that changes. An economy, challenges it. Amin says that the US shouldn't fixate on getting more stuff. Both countries need more workers.

[Waylon Wong]

More people are aging out of the labor market than coming into it. If you don't like immigrants, expect an economic slowdown. If you don't like trade, expect an economic slowdown. You know, if that's the tenor that is coming into all of our conversations in the global north, expect a long term economic decline.

[Robert Smith]

Now, Canada does not have all the answers for this. The economy will be a huge issue in their upcoming elections. But our means suggest three things that maybe the US could think about that Canada has some lessons on.

[Armin Yelnizian]

The first is immigration. For a long time, Canada has had one of the most innovative immigration systems in the world. They offered visas based on the points system where potential immigrants ranked based on education, work experience and language skills.

[Waylon Wong]

It has been one of the sources. One of the great sources of our economic resilience in Canada, she says, has.

[Armin Yelnizian]

Been because they're struggling with the immigration rules right now. In Canada, they let in a lot of people temporarily after the pandemic started when they needed more workers, then there was a backlash and they tightened the border.

[Robert Smith]

We really are the same in some ways.

[Armin Yelnizian]

But the fact remains that in Canada, about a quarter of its population is foreign born. It's only about 13.

[Robert Smith]

The second thing Armin says that the US can learn from Canada is its health care system.

[Armin Yelnizian]

I knew this was coming. Universal healthcare.

[Robert Smith]

Absolutely. The government of Canada runs health care. And yes, people complain about it all the time, but overall Canadians pay less and live longer than in the US.

[Armin Yelnizian]

Armin says it has another benefit that you might not really think about for private businesses.

[Waylon Wong]

Ask any of your large auto manufacturing companies right now, would they have preferred to have Canadian style healthcare? And they'd say yes in a heartbeat because then they don't have to pay for it. That's one of the reasons why the Canadian auto plants have been so efficient and successful. We're healthier and they don't pay for it.

[Armin Yelnizian]

So smarter immigration, universal healthcare. And the third thing Armin offers the US as a suggestion, a little something for the matriarchy.

[Waylon Wong]

The fact that for at least the last 20 years, Canadian women have been more in the workforce than the United States, which reverses history since the 1960s. The way we did it is by providing women not only access to great post secondary education where they could develop their human capital, but they could deploy it because they had access to cheap and high quality childcare.

[Robert Smith]

Cheap, high quality childcare? Who would have thought?

[Armin Yelnizian]

I don't even know what that is. Never heard of it.

[Robert Smith]

I mean cheap relative to the United States. Armin says the United States can just steal this idea from Canada.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, you could learn from us without absorbing us. You could absorb the lesson without absorbing the country.

[Robert Smith]

So Canadian. I love it. And I should say that since the Trump threats, I am not the only one feeling more Canadian. In a sprawling country with two official languages, English and French and so many different cultures, it's sometimes hard to feel like you're one people to feel Canadian. But that's all changed.

[Waylon Wong]

Without question. This bizarre moment has put a bit of steel in our spine in Canada and we're starting to talk about how we could be stronger together in a way that I haven't heard in my adult lifetime as an economist. So maybe this is the silver lining to this crazy moment.

[Robert Smith]

Canadians are already talking about diversifying their trading partners, making more connections with Europe and Asia. And who knows, maybe 50 years from now, Canada, the true north, strong and free, will get a provocative prime minister who starts to talk about the US as the 11th province.

[Waylon Wong]

Well, I think our approach would be would you like to join us? Not we're taking you over.

[Robert Smith]

Sorry. Not sorry.

[Armin Yelnizian]

This episode was produced by Cooper Katz McKim with engineering by Jimmy Keeley. It was fact checked by Sarah Juarez. Kicking Cannon, another Canadian, edits the show and the indicator is a production of npr.

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