AI creeps in, KATSEYE milkshakes, and China says “Zaijian!” to US soybeans

Summary

The Indicator from Planet Money

Episode: AI creeps in, KATSEYE milkshakes, and China says “Zaijian!” to US soybeans
Date: August 29, 2025
Hosts: Darian Woods, Waylon Wong, Jeff Gore

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Overview

This episode of The Indicator delivers its signature quick-fire insights into three major, timely economic stories: the tangible impact of AI on young workers’ job prospects, the chilling trade climate between the US and China over soybeans, and how "nowstalgia" is fuelling an unexpected turnaround at The Gap—propelled by viral marketing and the power of K-pop.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AI and the Squeeze on Young Workers

• Indicator: "-13%—the change in young people’s employment at highly AI-exposed firms compared to their older colleagues"
  • Since late 2020, young workers (ages 22–25) have seen a 13% larger drop in employment at firms most exposed to AI, especially in software development and customer service roles.
  • Contrarily, mid-career and senior developers are holding steady or even increasing in employment.
• Context:
  • The trend is unique to sectors where AI can substitute for entry-level work, not seen in jobs like stock clerks, health aides, or manufacturing supervisors.
  • The research referenced comes from the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, which analyzed payroll data for millions of workers and adjusted for broader economic slumps.
• Hope for the Future:
  • The study suggests older workers have skills not easily automated: company know-how, connections, strategic thinking.
  • Quote:
    • Darian Woods [04:14]: "Employees often pick up attributes in the workplace, like tacit knowledge, connections and strategy that aren't taught much in a university. And once younger workers pick up those skills and assets, they'll be less susceptible to being replaced by a chatbot."
• Memorable Moment:
  • Waylon Wong [04:07]: "Remember when we were all supposed to learn how to code? Now it's like, don't learn how to code, there's no jobs available."

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2. China Says Zaijian (Goodbye) to US Soybeans

• Indicator: "Zero—number of new soybean orders from China for the next marketing year"
  • Typically, at this point ahead of harvest, China would’ve ordered about 14% of its annual US soybean imports.
  • This year: zero orders, signaling fraying trade ties and steeper challenges for American farmers.
• Background:
  • The US-China trade war fallout (post-2018) slashed exports, costing American farmers over $9 billion in annualized losses.
  • Currently, China’s retaliatory tariffs make US soybeans pricier than Brazil’s, despite similar base prices.
  • The marketing window (September–February) is critical, as Brazilian soybeans take over after February.
• Quote:
  • Waylon Wong [05:05]: "American soybean farmers have received zero new orders from China for the upcoming year. And to put that into perspective, usually around this time, Chinese buyers have already put in orders for around 14% of their total purchases."
• Memorable Moment:
  • Waylon Wong [07:40]: "Time is ticking, and we have heard on this show from American soybean farmers, and they don't want to be stuck with metric tonnes of soybeans they can't sell."

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3. "Nowstalgia": Gap’s KATSEYE Milkshake Ad Goes Viral

• Indicator: Gap’s viral ad campaign featuring Cat’s Eye and Khalees’s “Milkshake”—a sign of both marketing prowess and the company’s ongoing resurgence ("Gappissance").
• The Ad:
  • Features the international girl group Cat’s Eye (huge with Gen Z), choreographed to the 2000s hit "Milkshake" by Khalees, sparking a new TikTok dance trend.
  • Bridges generations: Gen Z (for the group) and Millennials (for the song)—the essence of "nowstalgia."
• Turnaround Strategy:
  • Spearheaded by CEO Richard Dixon (formerly of Mattel/Barbie turnaround fame).
  • "Nowstalgia" seeks to modernize Gap while harkening back to their iconic 90s–2000s dance ads with celebrities like Madonna and Missy Elliott.
  • Sales are up, with observers dubbing the resurgence the “Gappissance.”
• Quotes:
  • Jeff Gore [09:21]: "For Gap in particular, it's kind of a tough sell because what even is the Gap brand? Right? Like, they do basics. They do denim and khakis. That's kind of their DNA. They're not glued to the latest trends. And so they've come up with this strategy and it's called Now Stalgia."
  • Waylon Wong [10:07]: "The gappissance. You have nowstalgia. The Gappissance."
  • Darian Woods [10:10]: "I don't know if that's a... that's a Portman. No. For me."
  • Waylon Wong [10:13]: "Portman no. Oh, my gosh. Amazing."
• Memorable Moment:
  • Jeff Gore [08:12]: "This is the new fall ad campaign from the Gap. It features the international girl group Cat's Eye. And it is just going bonkers viral right now, which is an indicator not only of how good marketing works in the year of our Lord 2025, but also it is the latest chapter in Gap's big turnaround story."

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Darian Woods: "Young people's employment has dropped 13% more than their older colleagues." [02:11]
• Waylon Wong: "Remember when we were all supposed to learn how to code? Now it's like, don't learn how to code, there's no jobs available." [04:07]
• Waylon Wong: "American soybean farmers have received zero new orders from China for the upcoming year." [05:05]
• Jeff Gore: "There’s even now a name for the turnaround itself. People are branding this the Gappissance." [09:55]
• Waylon Wong: "The gappissance. You have nowstalgia. The Gappissance." [10:07]
• Darian Woods: "I don't know if that's a... that's a Portman. No. For me." [10:10]

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Section Timestamps

• AI Shutting Out Young Workers: 02:00–04:50
• China’s Soybean Snub: 05:03–07:40
• Gap’s Viral "Milkshake" Ad & "Gappissance": 07:59–10:13

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This episode of The Indicator spotlights how new technology, global trade tensions, and savvy marketing can dramatically shift fortunes—for individual workers, entire sectors, or iconic American brands.

Transcript

[NPR Announcer]

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[Darian Woods]

This is the Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Darian woods here with Waylon Wong.

[Waylon Wong]

It's Friday, Darian, we made it.

[Darian Woods]

And gee willikers, it's Jeff Gore of Planet Money joining us today.

[Jeff Gore]

Guys, I'm so excited to be back.

[Waylon Wong]

It's Indicators of the Week. You came at just the right time. We're gonna dig into the most interesting numbers from the economic economic headlines.

[Darian Woods]

This week we have AI shutting out the youths from opportunities.

[Waylon Wong]

China is super over American soybeans and.

[Jeff Gore]

That thing that you liked when you were younger. It is back and it is cool again now.

[Waylon Wong]

Stalgia, the dream of the 90s is back.

[Darian Woods]

It's all off to the break.

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[Waylon Wong]

It's indicators of the Week. Darian woods, you are up first.

[Darian Woods]

My indicator comes from this bombshell analysis of how young workers are getting shut out of jobs because of AI. And that indicator is minus 13% for young people in highly AI exposed companies. Young people's employment has dropped 13% more than their older colleagues.

[Waylon Wong]

Ugh. I feel like this confirms some anecdote we've been hearing about how if you are a coder or you're in customer service, it is a lousy time to be looking for a job in these fields, especially if you're right out of college.

[Darian Woods]

Yeah, I was really excited to see this paper. It came out of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab because of all that debate. We had some articles and takes from people living it saying there is an AI jobs pocalypse right now, and we've had other counter takes that actually. No, we're just in the middle of a hiring slump from a slackening economy for other reasons.

[Jeff Gore]

Yeah, I feel like the hiring slump in tech that's been happening since before AI was a big thing even.

[Darian Woods]

Yeah. So the economists have done really good job controlling for all kinds of factors. Like when did the trends actually start? They got access to payroll data for millions of workers and they broke down hiring trends for different age ranges.

[Waylon Wong]

And so they must have seen differences between careers. Right. Like choice of careers matters.

[Darian Woods]

There seems to be a really clear decline in headcount for young software developers since late 2020 when the version of ChatGPT that first blew everybody's minds came out. That is not the case for older software developers. In fact, mid career and senior developers are getting employed more.

[Waylon Wong]

Is this just a trend everywhere that younger people are getting shut out of companies as the economy cools, or is something else going on?

[Darian Woods]

Yeah, so they looked at industries where you can't really use AI to substitute for young workers. Stock clerks, health aides, production supervisors. In those industries, there wasn't the same divergence for the 22 to 25 year olds.

[Waylon Wong]

Remember when we were all supposed to learn how to code? Now it's like, don't learn how to code, there's no jobs available.

[Darian Woods]

But you know what? I think the paper does reveal some hope, even for the coders. So why didn't the older coders lose their jobs en masse? Well, the paper hypothesises that employees often pick up attributes in the workplace, like tacit knowledge, connections and strategy that aren't taught much in a university. And once younger workers pick up those skills and assets, they'll be less susceptible to being replaced by a chatbot.

[Waylon Wong]

Like, you just get better at being a worker. Basically, you get better at the kind.

[Darian Woods]

Of things that can't be automated or just fed through the Internet. Like, I know that Jeff is the person to speak to if I want to talk cats and the intersection of law and economics, but that may not be and probably isn't in a chatbot yet. Well, that brings us to your indicator, Waylon.

[Waylon Wong]

My indicator is zero. As in American soybean farmers have received zero new orders from China for the upcoming year. And to put that into perspective, usually around this time, Chinese buyers have already put in orders for around 14% of their total purchases.

[Jeff Gore]

Oh no.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh no is right. And when I say year, I'm talking marketing year, which is the 12 month period that begins at harvest and the marketing year for Soybeans starts on September 1st. It's right around the corner. And the American Soybean association said recently that the export outlook is grim, and that's because of fallout from the 2018 trade war. Plus what's happening now with China putting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans.

[Darian Woods]

So can the U.S. sell to other countries?

[Waylon Wong]

We can. But China is the top buyer of American soybeans. Very hard to replace. It accounted for more than 50% of U.S. soybean exports in the previous year. Your next biggest buyer is the European Union, but they're only around 10%.

[Jeff Gore]

So help us put this in perspective. Right. Like the last trade war in 2018, what did China do then?

[Waylon Wong]

China also cut way back during that period. So if you look at, let's say, 2018-2020, the value of American soybean exports to China was roughly cut in half. And the U.S. department of Agriculture said that trade war resulted in soybean farmers losing over $9 billion in annualized losses. And then exports did recover somewhat afterward in. But there's another huge soybean producer that's been selling a lot to China.

[Darian Woods]

I think I can guess. It is our neighbor to the south. Brazil.

[Waylon Wong]

Correct. Brazil now out produces the US in soybeans. And the American Soybean association says that Brazilian and US Soybeans are priced about the same during normal times. That is when there's no trade war. We are not in normal times right now. And now, because of some retaliatory tariffs plus some other taxes, American soybeans are more expensive.

[Jeff Gore]

Okay, but is there any chance that maybe the orders from China this year are just, you know, delayed, that they're still coming?

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, maybe they just got distracted buying Labubus instead of soybeans. No, I mean, soybean farmers have usually already gotten a bunch of Chinese orders by now. And the window for exporting soybeans to China runs from September through February, roughly. And then after that, it's prime time for Brazilian soybeans. So China buys from Brazil until the following September. So we're really only looking at a period of a few months when American soybean farmers really want to lock in their Chinese orders.

[Darian Woods]

Okay, so time is ticking, and we have heard on this show from American soybean farmers, and they don't want to be stuck with metric tonnes of soybeans they can't sell. Speaking of selling a classic American product, Jeff, how do we sell more units of what your indicator is?

[Jeff Gore]

Okay. Okay, get ready. So my indicator of the week is this whole Experience. I hope you're ready.

[Waylon Wong]

Nice. I know what this is.

[Jeff Gore]

So this is the new fall ad campaign from the Gap. It features the international girl group Cat's Eye. And it is just going bonkers viral right now, which is an indicator not only of how good marketing works in the year of our Lord 2025, but also it is the latest chapter in Gap's big turnaround story. So first, let's talk about the ad itself. It was like this was engineered in a lab to go viral. You've got all this eye catching choreography. It's already becoming a TikTok dance trend. Got Cat's Eye. They're huge with Gen Z. But there's also something for the millennials. They're dancing to Milkshake by Khalees, which is for me, it's like the biggest song of the 2000s. So this is like a broadband cultural object, this ad. It's actually part of a long term comeback strategy for the Gap. So you see, back in 20, Gap got this new CEO. His name is Richard Dixon, used to be the president of Mattel and he oversaw the turnaround of the Barbie brand. And he's trying to do something similar for the Gap.

[Darian Woods]

So he is like a excavator of brands and rejuvenates them for 2025.

[Jeff Gore]

Yeah. And for Gap in particular, it's kind of a tough sell because what even is the Gap brand? Right? Like, they do basics. They do denim and khakis. That's kind of their DNA. They're not glued to the latest trends. And so they've come up with this strategy and it's called Now Stalgia.

[Darian Woods]

Trying to have it both ways.

[Jeff Gore]

Yeah. So these ads are a big part of that Nowstalgia. They're supposed to call back to the famous Gap ads of the 90s and 2000s, where you had celebrities like Madonna and Missy Elliott dancing in Gap clothes. Only nowadays.

[Waylon Wong]

I remember those ads.

[Jeff Gore]

Yeah, they're huge. So over the past year, they've started to see their sales pick up a bit. And there's even now a name for the turnaround itself. People are branding this the Gappissance.

[Waylon Wong]

The gappissance. You have nowstalgia. The Gappissance.

[Darian Woods]

I don't know if that's a. That's a Portman. No. For me.

[Waylon Wong]

Portman no. Oh, my gosh. Amazing. Well, Jeff, thanks very much for playing in our sandbox today. Miles, see you at the mall.

[Jeff Gore]

I'll see you there, Waylon.

[Darian Woods]

This episode was produced by Angel Carreras with engineering by Robert Rodriguez. It was fact checked by Cyril Juarez and Julia Ritchie. Paddy Hirsch edited and Cake and Cannon edits the show. The Indicator is a production of NPR.

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