An economist's role in the fall of Syria's government

Summary

Podcast Summary: An Economist's Role in the Fall of Syria's Government

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Indicator from Planet Money
• Host: Tarian Boyd
• Episode: An economist's role in the fall of Syria's government
• Release Date: December 12, 2024

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1. Introduction

In this compelling episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, host Tarian Boyd delves into the intricate role of economist Karim Shah in the downfall of Syria's long-standing Assad regime. Highlighting the intersection of economics and political activism, the episode sheds light on how analytical prowess and strategic advocacy can influence geopolitical outcomes.

2. Background on the Syrian Civil War

The episode sets the stage by recounting the tumultuous 13-year Syrian civil war, which concluded on December 11, 2024, ending half a century of Assad family rule. The conflict, ignited by the 2011 Arab Spring protests, saw multiple factions and international players vying for influence, leading to widespread devastation and loss of life.

3. Karim Shah's Early Involvement

Karim Shah, originally from Aleppo, Syria, emerged as a pivotal figure during the early days of the protests. After earning his economics degree, Karim became actively involved in anti-government demonstrations. In 2012, facing increasing danger due to his activism, Karim fled Syria, eventually obtaining asylum in New Zealand where he pursued a Ph.D. in Economics.

Karim Shah [03:00]: "We tried to avoid and tell our loved ones about these protests and also, I mean mainly to ensure their safety."

4. Economic Analysis and Impact

While stationed in New Zealand, Karim grappled with the guilt of being detached from the war-torn homeland. This internal conflict propelled him to redirect his expertise towards aiding the Syrian resistance from abroad. Karim assembled a team of analysts and open-source intelligence experts to scrutinize the Syrian economy, particularly focusing on how international aid was being manipulated.

One of Karim’s significant discoveries involved the existence of dual exchange rates in Syria. The government maintained an official exchange rate that undervalued the Syrian pound compared to the black market rate. This disparity allowed the Assad regime to siphon off substantial amounts of humanitarian aid.

Karim Shah [05:42]: "This is unbelievable. I mean, the level of stealing is just mind boggling."

Karim detailed how, for instance, when a UN agency exchanged a million dollars for Syrian pounds at the official rate, roughly $500,000 was effectively diverted to the Assad government. His report, which exposed these malpractices, gained traction after being picked up by The Guardian.

The ripple effect of Karim’s findings was profound. Members of the U.S. Congress and European parliaments took notice, leading to increased pressure on the Syrian Central Bank. This culminated in the government closing the exchange rate gap, effectively halting an estimated $65 million annually from flowing into Assad’s coffers.

Karim Shah [06:35]: "31% of UN procurements from Syria actually come from sanctioned individuals, you know, so that is basically Western governments funding the Syrian government with one hand and sanctioning it with the other."

5. Challenges and Risks

Karim's relentless pursuit of economic transparency in Syria was not without personal risks. To support his research, he depended on contacts within Syria, two of whom were arrested due to their association with his work. These individuals were detained in the infamous Sayyidina Prison, facing severe charges and even death sentences.

Karim Shah [08:49]: "I mean, I think that was truly the ugliest nightmare in my entire life."

However, the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 led to the release of his detained colleagues, alleviating some of the fears surrounding his advocacy work.

6. Outcome and Reflection

The episode highlights Karim’s cautious optimism following the regime's fall. While he celebrates the tangible impacts of his economic analyses, Karim remains vigilant, acknowledging the uncertain future of Syria’s governance.

Karim Shah [09:25]: "It feels like it's magic, you know, I mean, we've been waiting for 54 years, you know, for this regime, and it just collapsed at exactly the right moment."

Karim continues his commitment to Syria by planning to maintain economic oversight and ensure that the foundations laid during his advocacy translate into sustained change.

7. Conclusion

Karim Shah's journey underscores the profound impact that dedicated economic analysis and advocacy can have on international conflicts. By uncovering financial malpractices and influencing policy decisions, economists like Karim play a crucial role in shaping the course of nations.

The episode not only celebrates Karim's achievements but also serves as a testament to the power of informed activism in the face of oppressive regimes.

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Notable Quotes:

• Karim Shah [03:00]: "We tried to avoid and tell our loved ones about these protests and also, I mean mainly to ensure their safety."
• Karim Shah [05:42]: "This is unbelievable. I mean, the level of stealing is just mind boggling."
• Karim Shah [08:49]: "I mean, I think that was truly the ugliest nightmare in my entire life."
• Karim Shah [09:25]: "It feels like it's magic, you know, I mean, we've been waiting for 54 years, you know, for this regime, and it just collapsed at exactly the right moment."

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Production Credits:

• Produced by: Cooper Katz McKim
• Engineering: Neil Tvault
• Fact-Checked by: Sierra Juarez
• Edited by: Kate and Cannon
• Production: NPR

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This detailed summary encapsulates the essence of the episode, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of Karim Shah's pivotal role in the economic strategies that contributed to the fall of Syria's Assad regime. Through strategic analysis and unwavering commitment, Karim exemplifies how economists can influence and drive significant political change.

Transcript

[NPR]

NPR.

[Tarian Boyd]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Tarian Boyd. On Sunday, half a century of the Assad family ruling Syria came to an end. Syria's brutal 13 year civil war that led to this moment had many players and today we want to put a spotlight on one of them, an economist.

[Karim Shah]

It's like a dream. Honestly, it's like a dream.

[Tarian Boyd]

Today on the show, the story of one Syrian exile who made a real contribution to the resistance while on the other side of the world. He tells us how lines of computer code and spreadsheets can help bring down a long standing dictatorship.

[Cooper Katz McKim]

This message comes from Capital One. Say hello to stress free subscription management, easily track block or cancel recurring charges right from the Capital One mobile app. Simple as that. Learn [e-mail] subscriptions terms and conditions apply.

[NPR]

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[Tarian Boyd]

Sipc Karam Shah is an old economist friend of mine.

[Cooper Katz McKim]

Well, hello.

[Tarian Boyd]

Hello Karam. It's so nice to see you. Karam and I met while we were colleagues about eight years ago in New.

[Karim Shah]

Zealand when you were here at the New Zealand Treasury.

[Tarian Boyd]

Yes. But now we meet professionally again, but this time to talk about the Syrian economy, which is all over the news right now because of what's just happened.

[Karim Shah]

Indeed. Exactly. I mean, the past 10 days or so have been insane. Very. Yeah. Momentous.

[Tarian Boyd]

We chatted about all the events that led Karim to where he is today, on the front lines of Syrian research and advocacy. Karim grew up in Aleppo, which is one of Syria's two big cities, and after studying his economics degree, he got involved in anti government protests. This was in 2011 when the Arab Spring was awakening pro democracy movements all over the Arab world. Kerem didn't tell his family though.

[Karim Shah]

We tried to avoid and tell our loved ones about these protests and also, I mean mainly to ensure their safety. So I remember actually in one of the protests in Aleppo we were shouting, people demand the downfall of the regime. The most liberating moment, I think, in my life. The feeling is so exceptional, it's liberating. And I remember actually someone tapping me on the shoulder and saying, hey, Abu Adib, as in, like, that's my nickname. And I turned my head and then I saw it was my brother. So it turns out he was also protesting, but we were not telling each other my sister was also protesting. I came to realize this later on.

[Tarian Boyd]

The protests were met with heavy crackdowns by the Assad government. And as rebel groups gained a foothold, Syria descended into civil war. In 2012, Karim's father told him he should leave the country for his safety, especially given his activism. Karim flew to Malaysia, then to New Zealand, where he studied for his economics PhD and was granted asylum. That's about the same time that I met you, when you were working at the New Zealand treasury, working on the economic policy problems of a high income, peaceful country. How was that for you?

[Karim Shah]

Yeah, it was like working on another planet. You know, it's a completely different context, but after working there for like three and a half years, I just couldn't deal with the guilt, you know, with the guilt that I can do something for Syria and I should do it.

[Tarian Boyd]

So how could a young economist on the other side of the planet possibly make a difference? In one of the bloodiest conflicts of recent memory, Karim put all his time into working on Syrian issues. He hired analysts and open source intelligence experts to help out. He started looking into how countries were using economic tools to pressure Syria. And he found some pretty major flaws, like in how humanitarian aid money was leaking to the Assad regime. Like a lot of troubled economies, Syria has two exchange rates. The official exchange rate according to the government, and the black market exchange rate, which is basically determined by supply and demand in Syria. The government was claiming the Syrian pound was worth more than it actually was. So anyone wanting to buy Syrian pounds would need to pay the central bank more than those pounds were actually worth. And in 2021, when Karim was looking at the Syrian Central Bank's website, he saw a footnote that said that this inflated exchange rate was used for foreign aid.

[Karim Shah]

And I was like, this is unbelievable. I mean, the level of stealing is just mind boggling.

[NPR]

Yeah.

[Tarian Boyd]

So let's break down how this played out. Let's say I'm a UN agency working in Syria and I want to rebuild a school. I need to pay a local construction company in Syrian pounds, and to do that legally, I need to use the official Exchange rate. I exchange a million dollars at a bank for Syrian pounds, but I get way less Syrian pounds than I would have if I'd used the black market exchange rate. And by Karim's calculations, maybe $500,000 of that million would have been eaten up through that money exchange. Who gets to keep all that extra money? The Assad government.

[Karim Shah]

So basically it's a kind of levy on humanitarian aid, and that is the aid that is paid by Assad's enemies. Basically, it's predominantly Western countries.

[Tarian Boyd]

Karim wrote a report. The problem got picked up by the Guardian newspaper and from there it snowballed.

[Karim Shah]

It just went viral, you know, all over. We got members of US Congress to sign a letter to President Biden to put pressure. There were parliamentary questions in Europe, the us, Germany, the UK and some other countries put pressure on the UN telling them, look, we are providing these funds. You talk to the central bank, they either accept it or aid will be withheld. And, yeah, the central bank of Syria reached a point after resisting for so long, you know, they agreed to close the gap.

[Tarian Boyd]

Did you and your team celebrate at all?

[Karim Shah]

Actually, we did celebrate, and you can go on Twitter and see I was over the moon when it happened.

[Tarian Boyd]

Of course, a lot of remote work requires digital celebrations. Karim estimates this action stopped about $65 million a year going into Assad's coffers and funding its army, which in the context of the tens of billions of dollars in aid or military support given by countries like Iran, is small. But it was one victory over a range of fronts trying to bring down Assad. Other economic analysis that Karam worked on involved reviewing who the aid agencies were contract. He was horrified to learn a lot of people who had committed some grave crimes were receiving these contracts. In one case, a militia group tied to Iran that had destroyed a city was allegedly being paid to rebuild it.

[Karim Shah]

We just showed that 31% of UN procurements from Syria actually come from sanctioned individuals, you know, so that is basically Western governments funding the Syrian government with one hand and sanctioning it with the other.

[Tarian Boyd]

Simultaneously, his analysis led to more scrutiny of these contracts. But not all of Karim's efforts have had happy results. To support his accountability work, he relied on people inside Syria. About seven months ago, he learnt two of them had been arrested, one of them on some pretty serious charges related to his work with Karam.

[Karim Shah]

I mean, I think that was truly the ugliest nightmare in my entire life. You know, when he was arrested and.

[Tarian Boyd]

I couldn't sleep, this man was kept in the notorious Sayyidina Prison, where tens of thousands of people have been tortured and executed. He was sentenced to death. His execution date was set for the end of this month. And so that meant that with the downfall of the Assad regime, Kerem was relieved to learn this man was among the people leaving, leaving Seydnair prison just a few days ago.

[Karim Shah]

It feels like it's magic, you know, I mean, we've been waiting for 54 years, you know, for this regime, and it just collapsed at exactly the right.

[Tarian Boyd]

Moment, the right moment that saved his contact from death. Karim spoke to him soon after when.

[Karim Shah]

He was out and we had a call on WhatsApp. I just started crying immediately. I couldn't believe my eyes, you know, that, that he's out.

[Tarian Boyd]

And while Karam is overjoyed, he's reserving his judgment about whatever government gets formed next. In the meantime, he will keep writing reports, he'll keep scrutinising the numbers, because who knows what impact that might have. This episode was produced by Cooper Katz McKim with engineering by Neil Tvault. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Kate and Cannon edits the show and the indicator is a production of NPR.

[Cooper Katz McKim]

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Energia, where everyone can invest in the world's most profitable renewable energy markets. Since inception, Energia has helped investors realize a 12% return while earning steady monthly dividends. Make your money. Do [e-mail] NPR that's Energia. E n e r g e a dot com past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. This message comes from Anthropic. Meet Claude, Anthropic's AI assistant that elevates your entire organization securely connect your company knowledge and empower every employee with expert level support. Learn [e-mail] Enterprise this message comes from.

[NPR]

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