An indicator lost: big disaster costs

Summary

Summary of "An Indicator Lost: Big Disaster Costs"
The Indicator from Planet Money, NPR
Release Date: June 4, 2025

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Introduction

In the June 4, 2025 episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Darian Woods and Waylon Wong delve into the retirement of NOAA's Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database. This comprehensive resource, which meticulously tracked the economic impacts of significant weather events in the United States since 1980, is being discontinued. The episode features insights from Adam Smith, a seasoned climatologist who spearheaded the database, highlighting the implications of this loss for policymakers, researchers, and the public.

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The Significance of the Billion Dollar Disaster Database

Establishment and Growth

Adam Smith, a respected climatologist with two decades at NOAA, was instrumental in creating the Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database. The initiative began as a modest annual report but evolved under Smith's leadership into a robust online portal encompassing interactive maps and graphs. By aggregating data from over a dozen public and private sources, including the US Department of Agriculture and insurance companies, the database provided a comprehensive overview of extreme weather events costing at least $1 billion each. As Smith notes, "Numbers on a spreadsheet is one thing, but understanding what's actually been below those numbers... is important information for people to make decisions" (04:54).

Impact and Usage

The database recorded over 400 significant weather events, detailing damages to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and more. This information was pivotal for various stakeholders:

• Individuals: Families could assess risky areas when deciding where to move.
• Governments: State and local entities utilized the data for budgeting and enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Smith emphasized the human aspect of the data, stating, "You've got people's lives having to rebuild... it's important information for major life decisions" (04:54).

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Increasing Frequency and Cost of Disasters

In recent years, the frequency, diversity, and magnitude of extreme weather events have surged. Smith observes, "In 2024, there were 27 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States. The year before that there were 28" (05:32). Both years surpassed previous records when adjusted for inflation, underscoring a troubling trend in climate-related disasters.

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Criticism and Challenges

Scrutiny from Think Tanks

The database faced criticism, notably from a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank. In a published paper, the researcher acknowledged the reality and significance of human-induced climate change but questioned NOAA's methodology in correlating economic losses directly with climate trends. The critique centered on the notion that factors like population growth and increasing wealth in vulnerable areas also drive the escalating costs of disasters, independent of changes in weather event frequency or intensity.

NOAA's Response

Smith responded to the criticism by expressing openness to enhancing the database. He highlighted the challenges in capturing non-market losses, such as mental and physical health impacts from events like wildfires, which were not fully accounted for in the existing system. "We were actually working on integrating some of those, including the mental and physical health care related losses" (06:49).

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Retirement of the Database

Factors Leading to Retirement

The decision to retire the Billion Dollar Disaster Database was influenced by a combination of administrative and political factors. The new federal administration initiated layoffs and proposed budget cuts to NOAA, signaling a shift away from climate research priorities. As Smith reflected, "If you talked to me six months ago, I wouldn't think we'd be having this conversation, but here we are" (08:12).

NOAA's Announcement

Adam Smith took a government offer to leave NOAA in April, with his last day on May 2nd. Shortly thereafter, NOAA officially announced the retirement of the database. The website now features a prominent red banner stating, "Because of evolving priorities and staffing changes, it will no longer be updated" (07:43).

Impact of Retirement

The cessation of data collection leaves a significant gap in public and governmental access to critical information on the economic impacts of extreme weather events. Smith expressed concern over this vacuum, especially during a period when such data is increasingly essential for informed decision-making.

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Future Endeavors and Hopes

Continuing the Work Outside NOAA

Unwilling to let the project's legacy fade, Smith is exploring avenues to sustain the Billion Dollar Disaster analysis outside of NOAA. He suggests the potential involvement of non-profits or private companies to maintain and expand the database. However, this transition poses substantial challenges due to the reliance on extensive and diverse data sets, many of which are sourced from federal entities that may no longer support such initiatives.

Long-Term Aspirations

Smith remains optimistic about the possibility of returning to a federal role in the future, contingent on more favorable political conditions. "I wouldn't mind going back to the federal government at NOAA or another agency in several years down the road when perhaps the political headwinds are not so turbulent" (09:32).

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Conclusion

The retirement of NOAA's Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database represents a significant setback in the ongoing effort to monitor and mitigate the economic impacts of extreme weather events. Adam Smith's departure and the cessation of data collection underscore the broader challenges faced by climate research in a shifting political landscape. The episode serves as a poignant reminder of the critical need for sustained investment in climate data infrastructure to inform and protect communities nationwide.

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Notable Quotes:

• Adam Smith (04:54): "Numbers on a spreadsheet is one thing, but understanding what's actually been below those numbers... is important information for people to make decisions."

• Adam Smith (05:32): "In 2024, there were 27 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States. The year before that there were 28."

• Adam Smith (06:49): "We were actually working on integrating some of those, including the mental and physical health care related losses."

• Adam Smith (08:12): "If you talked to me six months ago, I wouldn't think we'd be having this conversation, but here we are."

• Adam Smith (09:32): "I wouldn't mind going back to the federal government at NOAA or another agency in several years down the road when perhaps the political headwinds are not so turbulent."

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Produced by Cooper Katz McKim and engineered by Jimmy Keeley. Fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Edited by Kaken Cannon.

Transcript

[Waylon Wong]

Npr.

[Darian Woods]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Darian Woods.

[Waylon Wong]

And I'm Waylon Wong. We have seen a lot of major natural disasters in the US in the last couple of years. In 2024 alone, there were hurricanes Milton and Helene, plus tornadoes in the central and southeastern parts of the country.

[Darian Woods]

And these disasters we're talking about all shared something in common. They all hit at least $1 billion in costs or damages. And we know this because the federal government tabulated the economic impact of these extreme events.

[Adam Smith]

So not quite a decade ago, an inflection point in terms of the frequency, the diversity and the magnitude and the cost of these extremes just went to another level and generally stayed at that level.

[Waylon Wong]

That's Adam Smith, not the economist, a climatologist.

[Darian Woods]

It'd have a Scottish accent if he was.

[John Bateman]

Oh yeah, good catch, Darian. This Adam Smith spearheaded something called the Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database of the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or noaa. NOAA is well known for its sophisticated weather forecasting, but it also calculated the cost of climate disasters going back to 1980. This was information that still and local governments used for budgeting and planning.

[Darian Woods]

But NOAA will no longer be collecting this data. Last month, the federal government said it was retiring the billion dollar disaster database. 2024 was its final year.

[Waylon Wong]

Today on the show, Adam tells us about the work he did, why he feels it was important, and how he's trying to keep it going.

[Cooper Katz McKim]

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[Darian Woods]

Adam Smith is a climatologist who spent the last two decades of his career at noaa. Well, before that, he was a kid growing up in North Carolina. He was in third grade when Hurricane Hugo came through the region.

[Adam Smith]

I think I recall going to bed that night knowing that it was on the way and hearing the howling winds and the trees just creaking and rubbing against the house and then the wind and the rain. But I do remember waking up the Next morning, with many trees down on the ground, but thankful our house was fine.

[John Bateman]

Adam also lived through a superstorm in 1993, known as the 1993 Storm of the Century, that that walloped much of the eastern and southeastern US with tornadoes and extreme snowfall. Today he's based in Asheville, North Carolina, which was hit by Hurricane Helene last year.

[Darian Woods]

Adam says that extreme weather can really shape someone's life. In his case, his interest in climate brought him to the federal government, specifically noaa. That's where he was the architect of the billion dollar disaster database.

[Waylon Wong]

Adam says that when he started, the team was producing an annual report that was limited in scale. Under his watch, the database expanded into a comprehensive online portal with interactive maps and graphs. And it pulled in numbers from over a dozen public and private sources, including the US Department of Agriculture and insurance companies over the decades.

[Darian Woods]

That sums to over 400 weather events whose damages totalled at least a billion dollars. We're talking homes, businesses, government, buildings, vehicles, boats, forest, electricity grids.

[Adam Smith]

But it's also important to caveat that even though it was a comprehensive estimate as far as all this information, it was still a conservative estimate in terms of you're not able to truly measure what is completely lost because the data just isn't that comprehensive in the world.

[Waylon Wong]

And Adam says his work went beyond just tallying up how many buildings and vehicles were damaged or destroyed. He wanted the information to be public and presented in a way that was useful to people. Let's say a family deciding where to move might consult a map showing risky areas for weather events. State and local governments might look at the damages from past disasters to plan their budgets and how to build more hardened infrastructure.

[Adam Smith]

Numbers on a spreadsheet is one thing, but you know, understanding what's actually been below those numbers. You know, people's lives having to rebuild and, or perhaps just move and start over completely. So there's different ways to kind of slice and dice it in the data to make it a little bit more human centric. That's important information for people to make, you know, decisions whether it's investing or moving or selling their home or any other major life decision.

[Waylon Wong]

What was it like to do this job during, let's say, the last seven to 10 years when as you saw these kinds of disasters really ramp up.

[Adam Smith]

In magnitude over the last several years, it became more challenging to keep up with the number of the events we had experienced. I believe last year in 2024, there were 27 separate billion dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States. The year before that there were 28. Both of those years are well above any other year, inflation adjusted to present day dollars.

[Darian Woods]

The team's work did draw criticism. Last year, a researcher from the American Enterprise Institute, which is a centre right think tank, published an academic paper. It said that NOAA did a poor job identifying its data sources and methodology.

[Waylon Wong]

Now, the paper did say that human caused climate change is real and important. But it questioned whether NOAA was drawing too strong of a link between economic losses and trends in extreme weather events. This is because the cost of these disasters are also related to non climate factors like population growth and wealth. The more people living in an area, the more there is to damage, even if the frequency and intensity of weather events is unchanged.

[Darian Woods]

Adam said he was willing to entertain criticism of his work at noaa and there were ways he wanted to keep improving the database.

[Waylon Wong]

What were the things that you desperately wanted better or more information? And it was just very hard to get.

[Adam Smith]

Yeah, so there are some types of non market losses that are really hard to capture and are particularly impactful. And we were actually working on integrating some of those, including the mental and physical health care related losses. So for example, wildfire seasons out west, you know, you could have poor air quality for weeks to months, you know, so it could really impact vulnerable, sensitive groups where poor air quality could exacerbate their underlying health conditions.

[Waylon Wong]

Researchers have started to study the health impacts of the wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles earlier this year. But Adam and his team at NOAA won't be tracking the economic cost of those wildfires now that the database is being retired.

[Darian Woods]

Adam says the new administration marked a turning point. Between layoffs, proposed cuts to NOAA's budget and a shift away from climate research. Adam thought the billion dollar disaster database was in trouble.

[John Bateman]

So in April, he took a government offer to leave his job. His Last day was May 2nd. And he was right about the database. A week later, Noah said it would be retired. But the database now has a red banner on the homepage saying that because of evolving priorities and staffing changes, it will no longer be updated. We reached out to Noah for more details. Public Affairs Officer John Bateman repeated that same language and noted that previous data and reports are still available.

[Adam Smith]

Honestly, if you talked to me six months ago, I wouldn't think we'd be having this conversation, but.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh really?

[Adam Smith]

Yeah. But here we are.

[Waylon Wong]

What was your last day like?

[Adam Smith]

Yeah, it's pretty surreal to work after graduate school for any one place for 20 years. It feels like you're leaving family, all the things you've worked for. It's just hard and strange and I still, it, it still feels bizarre frankly. But this has created, I would say a temporary vacuum of information in the public space for this type of detailed analysis. And it happens at a time when we need this information more than ever.

[Darian Woods]

Actually, Adam says he'd like to continue the billion dollar disaster analysis somewhere else, maybe with the backing of non profits or private companies. This won't be an easy job because the work relies on so many different data sets, many of which come from the federal government and might not be updated themselves anymore.

[Adam Smith]

You know, fingers crossed that some of these major public federal data sets don't go completely silent, don't go completely dark, because if they did, that would present some challenge. It's pretty complicated landscape to redevelop something like this. It's certainly not straightforward, but that's where we are right now with it.

[Waylon Wong]

And Adam isn't done.

[Adam Smith]

I wouldn't mind going back to the federal government at NOAA or another agency in several years down the road when perhaps the political headwinds are not so turbulent.

[Waylon Wong]

Okay, well, thank you so much and please keep us posted on your on your next next moves with the project.

[Adam Smith]

Thank you so much.

[Waylon Wong]

This episode was produced by Cooper Katz McKim and engineered by Jimmy Keeley. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Kaken Cannon is our show's editor and the indicator is a production of N.