Summary of "An Indicator Lost: Big Disaster Costs"
The Indicator from Planet Money, NPR
Release Date: June 4, 2025

Introduction

In the June 4, 2025 episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Darian Woods and Waylon Wong delve into the retirement of NOAA's Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database. This comprehensive resource, which meticulously tracked the economic impacts of significant weather events in the United States since 1980, is being discontinued. The episode features insights from Adam Smith, a seasoned climatologist who spearheaded the database, highlighting the implications of this loss for policymakers, researchers, and the public.

The Significance of the Billion Dollar Disaster Database

Establishment and Growth

Adam Smith, a respected climatologist with two decades at NOAA, was instrumental in creating the Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database. The initiative began as a modest annual report but evolved under Smith's leadership into a robust online portal encompassing interactive maps and graphs. By aggregating data from over a dozen public and private sources, including the US Department of Agriculture and insurance companies, the database provided a comprehensive overview of extreme weather events costing at least $1 billion each. As Smith notes, "Numbers on a spreadsheet is one thing, but understanding what's actually been below those numbers... is important information for people to make decisions" (04:54).

Impact and Usage

The database recorded over 400 significant weather events, detailing damages to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and more. This information was pivotal for various stakeholders:

• Individuals: Families could assess risky areas when deciding where to move.
• Governments: State and local entities utilized the data for budgeting and enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Smith emphasized the human aspect of the data, stating, "You've got people's lives having to rebuild... it's important information for major life decisions" (04:54).

Increasing Frequency and Cost of Disasters

In recent years, the frequency, diversity, and magnitude of extreme weather events have surged. Smith observes, "In 2024, there were 27 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States. The year before that there were 28" (05:32). Both years surpassed previous records when adjusted for inflation, underscoring a troubling trend in climate-related disasters.

Criticism and Challenges

Scrutiny from Think Tanks

The database faced criticism, notably from a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank. In a published paper, the researcher acknowledged the reality and significance of human-induced climate change but questioned NOAA's methodology in correlating economic losses directly with climate trends. The critique centered on the notion that factors like population growth and increasing wealth in vulnerable areas also drive the escalating costs of disasters, independent of changes in weather event frequency or intensity.

NOAA's Response

Smith responded to the criticism by expressing openness to enhancing the database. He highlighted the challenges in capturing non-market losses, such as mental and physical health impacts from events like wildfires, which were not fully accounted for in the existing system. "We were actually working on integrating some of those, including the mental and physical health care related losses" (06:49).

Retirement of the Database

Factors Leading to Retirement

The decision to retire the Billion Dollar Disaster Database was influenced by a combination of administrative and political factors. The new federal administration initiated layoffs and proposed budget cuts to NOAA, signaling a shift away from climate research priorities. As Smith reflected, "If you talked to me six months ago, I wouldn't think we'd be having this conversation, but here we are" (08:12).

NOAA's Announcement

Adam Smith took a government offer to leave NOAA in April, with his last day on May 2nd. Shortly thereafter, NOAA officially announced the retirement of the database. The website now features a prominent red banner stating, "Because of evolving priorities and staffing changes, it will no longer be updated" (07:43).

Impact of Retirement

The cessation of data collection leaves a significant gap in public and governmental access to critical information on the economic impacts of extreme weather events. Smith expressed concern over this vacuum, especially during a period when such data is increasingly essential for informed decision-making.

Future Endeavors and Hopes

Continuing the Work Outside NOAA

Unwilling to let the project's legacy fade, Smith is exploring avenues to sustain the Billion Dollar Disaster analysis outside of NOAA. He suggests the potential involvement of non-profits or private companies to maintain and expand the database. However, this transition poses substantial challenges due to the reliance on extensive and diverse data sets, many of which are sourced from federal entities that may no longer support such initiatives.

Long-Term Aspirations

Smith remains optimistic about the possibility of returning to a federal role in the future, contingent on more favorable political conditions. "I wouldn't mind going back to the federal government at NOAA or another agency in several years down the road when perhaps the political headwinds are not so turbulent" (09:32).

Conclusion

The retirement of NOAA's Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Database represents a significant setback in the ongoing effort to monitor and mitigate the economic impacts of extreme weather events. Adam Smith's departure and the cessation of data collection underscore the broader challenges faced by climate research in a shifting political landscape. The episode serves as a poignant reminder of the critical need for sustained investment in climate data infrastructure to inform and protect communities nationwide.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam Smith (04:54): "Numbers on a spreadsheet is one thing, but understanding what's actually been below those numbers... is important information for people to make decisions."

• Adam Smith (05:32): "In 2024, there were 27 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States. The year before that there were 28."

• Adam Smith (06:49): "We were actually working on integrating some of those, including the mental and physical health care related losses."

• Adam Smith (08:12): "If you talked to me six months ago, I wouldn't think we'd be having this conversation, but here we are."

• Adam Smith (09:32): "I wouldn't mind going back to the federal government at NOAA or another agency in several years down the road when perhaps the political headwinds are not so turbulent."

Produced by Cooper Katz McKim and engineered by Jimmy Keeley. Fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Edited by Kaken Cannon.