Can we still trust the monthly jobs report? (Update)

Summary

Summary of "Can We Still Trust the Monthly Jobs Report? (Update)" – The Indicator from Planet Money

Release Date: August 5, 2025 | Host: Darren Woods and Waylon Wong | Produced by NPR’s The Indicator

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Introduction: The Controversy Surrounding the BLS

In the August 5th episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Darren Woods and Waylon Wong delve into the recent upheaval within the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The episode centers on President Donald Trump's decision to dismiss the current BLS commissioner, Erica Groschen, accusing her of manipulating job numbers without presenting any substantive evidence. This move has sparked widespread debate about the integrity of the monthly jobs report, a critical economic indicator.

Allegations of Job Report Manipulation

The episode opens with the alarming news that President Trump plans to announce his replacement for the BLS leadership. As Waylon Wong highlights, "The president presented no evidence that the jobs report is phony." This skepticism was echoed by Trump's economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, who stated on NBC's Meet the Press that the administration desires greater control over the BLS. However, Erica Groschen, a former BLS commissioner, counters these claims by emphasizing the institution's commitment to transparency and reliability.

Ensuring Trust: Safeguards Within the BLS

Erica Groschen provides an in-depth explanation of the rigorous procedures that safeguard the integrity of the jobs report. "It's built into the directives on how the statistical agencies operate," Groschen asserts at [03:17], underscoring that these safeguards are enshrined in law and standardized publications like Principles and Practices for a Statistical Agency. The BLS employs multiple layers of security, ensuring that only designated staff can access and analyze data. For instance, as Groschen mentions, "Only staffers tasked with data analysis could be in the rooms where that work took place," preventing unauthorized access.

A notable segment involves a demonstration by Groschen using an 8-ounce vessel to illustrate the importance of neutral language in reports. She explains, "It's fine if the releases are boring. What's not fine is if they have a political or policy slant to them," emphasizing the necessity for objective reporting devoid of any bias or manipulation.

Potential Threats to Data Integrity

Despite these robust safeguards, Groschen voices two primary concerns regarding the BLS's future. The first is the potential for manipulation, particularly through altering the release schedule or changing the methodologies used to calculate job numbers. "Someone in the government could change the public release schedule either to bury bad news or announce good news at an opportunistic time," she warns at [05:17]. Such actions could undermine the credibility of the BLS and distort market reactions based on the jobs report.

The second concern pertains to resource constraints. Groschen points out that the BLS has faced a significant budget reduction—over 10% since 2009 when adjusted for inflation. "Fewer people makes the job of collecting and analyzing survey data harder," she notes at [07:08]. These budget cuts exacerbate challenges like declining survey response rates, which can compromise data quality and lead to higher error margins.

Reactions and Ongoing Debates

The episode also highlights the broader repercussions of undermining the BLS. Erica Groschen reflects on the fragility of trust, stating, "Trust takes a long time to build up and it can be ruined in an instant" at [07:52]. In response to Trump's actions, the Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics—a bipartisan group—released a statement urging Congress to investigate the abrupt dismissal of Groschen. They condemned the president’s actions as "unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system."

Adding to the tension, Kevin Hassett has cast doubt on the latest jobs report, particularly questioning the magnitude of its downward revisions. "Economic adviser Kevin Hassett has cast suspicion with no evidence on the large downward revisions in the latest jobs report," the hosts report, setting the stage for further analysis in subsequent episodes.

Looking Ahead: Upcoming Analysis on BLS Revisions

Concluding the episode, Woods and Wong tease an upcoming segment that will explore how the BLS handles data revisions and assess whether the recent adjustments to the jobs report are atypical or indicative of deeper issues within the agency. This follow-up promises to provide listeners with a clearer understanding of the robustness of the BLS's data processing and the validity of current economic indicators.

Conclusion: The Importance of Reliable Economic Data

Throughout the episode, the hosts and interviewees underscore the critical role that trustworthy economic data plays in shaping policies, informing investors, and guiding everyday business decisions. As Erica Groschen poignantly states, "If people don't trust the data, then you might as well not produce it" at [01:12]. The episode serves as a timely reminder of the delicate balance between political influence and the necessity for unbiased, accurate economic reporting.

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Notable Quotes:

• Erica Groschen [03:17]: "It's built into the directives on how the statistical agencies operate. It's built into the law."
• Erica Groschen [05:03]: "It's fine if the releases are boring. What's not fine is if they have a political or policy slant to them."
• Erica Groschen [07:52]: "Trust takes a long time to build up and it can be ruined in an instant."

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This summary captures the essence of the podcast episode, highlighting key discussions, expert insights, and the overarching concerns about the integrity of government data in the face of political interference.

Transcript

[Erica Groschen]

Npr.

[Darren Woods]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Darren Woods.

[Waylon Wong]

And I'm Waylon Wong. President Donald Trump said this week that he will soon announce his pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He fired the previous head on Friday after accusing her of manipulating the jobs numbers.

[Darren Woods]

The president presented no evidence that the jobs report is phony. Neither did Trump's economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, when he went on NBC's Meet the Press this week. Hassett told host Kristen Welker that the president wants his own people at the BLS.

[Waylon Wong]

Is the President planning to fire all 40 people involved in putting these numbers together?

[Erica Groschen]

We're going to try to get the numbers so that they're transparent and reliable.

[Waylon Wong]

Transparent and reliable data are vital to the economy. The monthly jobs report moves markets, the Federal Reserve, policymakers and everyday business the information to make decisions that affect all of us. So the numbers need to be trustworthy.

[Erica Groschen]

If people don't trust the data, then you might as well not produce it.

[Darren Woods]

That's Erica Groschen, a former BLS commissioner. She was also part of a committee of outside experts that advise the government on economic data. The Trump administration disbanded that committee earlier this year.

[Waylon Wong]

We talked to Erica then about how we can trust official statistics like the monthly jobs report today. Today on the show we are re airing our conversation about the safeguards that are in place and her worries about the future integrity of government data.

[Unknown]

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[Waylon Wong]

From two surveys that the BLS conducts and they are built on trust. The people who answer the survey questions trust that their responses will be anonymized and used only for statistical purposes. And then the people who use that data from to investors trust the quality of that information.

[Darren Woods]

Erika Groschen served as BLS commissioner from 2013 to 2017. She says the BLS and other statistical agencies have a whole litany of procedures to safeguard this trust.

[Erica Groschen]

It's built into the directives on how you, how the statistical agencies operate. It's built into the law. It's built into this great publication called Principles and Practices for a Statistical Agency. Exciting. So it's front and present all the time. Not because you're always fighting an active threat, but because everybody just knows that it's so important. The same way that people lock the door at night and do other things to make sure that they're warding off threats.

[Darren Woods]

Here are some examples of those safeguards in practice. Erica says that when she was at the bls, only staffers tasked with data analysis could be in the rooms where that work took place. Janitors couldn't get into those rooms to empty the trash.

[Waylon Wong]

As commissioner, Erica would only see the jobs numbers when they were final. She also learned early on in her tenure that the report had to be written in the most neutral terms. No spin allowed.

[Erica Groschen]

When I gave a talk, I would show the proverbial glass with some water in it and say, what's the BLS answer? Is this half full or half empty?

[Waylon Wong]

What's your answer, Darian?

[Darren Woods]

I know the exact answer to this. The BLS wants to say there is 150 milliliters of water here.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, exactly right, Darian. Except, you know, Erica puts it in ounces, of course.

[Erica Groschen]

This is an 8 ounce vessel containing 4 ounces of liquid.

[Waylon Wong]

So congrats, Darian. You are qualified to write the monthly jobs report. You know, the language is boring by design.

[Erica Groschen]

It's fine if the releases are boring. What's not fine is if they have a political or policy slant to them.

[Darren Woods]

Erica shared two big worries with us when it comes to the BLS and the integrity of the jobs data. The first one is manipulation. Basically, who gets access to the information and what they might do with it.

[Waylon Wong]

Erica says meddling could show up in different ways. For example, someone in the government could change the public release schedule either to bury bad news or announce good news at an opportunistic time.

[Darren Woods]

If this happened, it would be a massive change in how the BLS currently operates. The agency publishes a schedule of its data releases well in advance. Everyone gets the numbers at the same time. And this is important because the jobs report moves the Stock market hiccups in.

[Waylon Wong]

This process, even if they're not the result of malfeasance, make headlines. Like last year, a BLS data release didn't happen as scheduled. People from a couple investment banks then reportedly called the agency and got someone to tell them the numbers. This had other people in the market crying foul that some people got the information early and could potentially trade on it. The BLS said at the time that it was reviewing its procedures to make sure it wouldn't happen again.

[Darren Woods]

Erica also flags another potential kind of manipulation, and that is changing how the BLS calculates the jobs numbers.

[Erica Groschen]

I worry about hubris that some person who feels they're very smart may feel, gee, the BLS shouldn't be doing it that way. They may have all their explanations for why they do it that way. But I'm smart and I think it should be done this way.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, I have a better formula for calculating the unemployment rate or something.

[Erica Groschen]

Exactly right.

[Darren Woods]

Well, we've seen how the commerce Secretary has his own idea about how to calculate gdp. He wants to take government spending out of the equation.

[Waylon Wong]

So between changing the release schedule or the equations, manipulation is one of Erica's biggest big worries about the bls. Her second major concern is resources. According to one estimate, the bureau's budget has shrunk over 10% since 2009 when adjusted for inflation.

[Darren Woods]

And it takes a lot of resources, both money and people, to conduct the surveys that feed into the jobs report. And I've got to think that BLS staffers are taking note of the big cuts to federal workers.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, fewer people makes the job of collecting and analyzing survey data harder. And response rates for the surveys have already been declining. That's a problem because smaller sample sizes could lead to lower quality data with more errors. Erica says she has faith in the staffers at the bls, this group of dedicated data nerds who would raise the alarm about interference. She says vigilance is part of BLS agency culture and the norms that underpin its work. Still, those norms are vulnerable.

[Erica Groschen]

They can be undermined. It's like what parents tell their kids. Trust takes a long time to build up and it can be ruined in an instant.

[Darren Woods]

Erika is co chair of a group called the Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last week, the group issued a statement asking Congress to investigate Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner. It also said the president is engaging in, quote, unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system.

[Waylon Wong]

Still, economic adviser Kevin Hassett has cast suspicion with no evidence on the large downward revisions in the latest jobs report. Tomorrow we'll a look at how BLS revisions work and if the latest revisions were unusually large. This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie and Angel Carreras with engineering by Robert Rodriguez. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and Tyler Jones. Kate Concannon is the show's editor and the indicator. It's a production of npr.

[Unknown]

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