Even Moore’s law can't save affordable tech

Summary

Podcast Summary: “Even Moore’s Law Can't Save Affordable Tech”

The Indicator from Planet Money, NPR — July 29, 2026
Hosts: Waylon Wong & Darian Woods
Guests: Steve Burke (Gamers Nexus), Iris Behar (Computer Science Professor, Colorado School of Mines)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the sudden spike in the cost of computing memory (“the RAMpocalypse”), driven by exploding AI demand, and how this disrupts a decades-long assumption based on Moore’s Law: that technology always gets faster, better, and cheaper over time. Through expert voices and industry examples, the episode unpacks why this era of affordable tech is ending, what’s at stake for consumers and companies, and whether Moore’s Law is truly dead—or just evolving.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Sudden Spike in Memory Prices ("RAMpocalypse")

• Steve Burke's Industry Perspective:
  • Steve, a longtime PC builder and founder of Gamers Nexus, notes that memory prices have doubled or more in a year, affecting nearly all consumer electronics.

    “It’s never been like this. Like right now. It's such a huge spike that people are seeing it reflected in any consumer electronic that has memory, which is most of them now.” (00:58, Steve Burke)

• Real-World Repercussions:
  • Nintendo raised the US price for its upcoming Switch 2 by $50.
  • Apple increased prices on entry-level MacBooks and iPads. (01:09)
• The AI boom and data center expansion are creating unusual demand/supply shocks, with even the largest tech companies feeling the pinch.

Moore’s Law: Past, Present, and Myth

• Historical Context:
  • Gordon Moore predicted in 1965 that the number of transistors on a chip would double annually, enabling cheaper, more powerful electronics.

    “You know that next year you'll be able to buy something cheaper and more powerful, providing it's electronic. Next year's computers will be faster, cheaper. Next year's cameras will have more megapixels, more memory, cheaper. Is there any other product area other than electronics that gives you this kind of history?” (03:04, Gordon Moore archival audio)

• What Changed?
  • Physical barriers: As chips shrink to the scale of single nanometers, further advances face the limits of physics and require increasingly complex, expensive solutions.

    “When you're operating in the single nanometer scale, you really are looking at these, you know, single electrons. This just is a real physical limit.” (05:17, Iris Behar)

  • Despite periodic eulogies for Moore's Law, breakthroughs (like IBM's 1-nanometer transistor) periodically revive it—but at higher costs and with less assurance of falling consumer prices. (05:57)

The Role of AI in Breaking the Cycle

• Unprecedented Demand from AI
  • OpenAI’s "Stargate" project alone is projected to require up to 40% of the world’s computer memory supply, warping market dynamics.

    “One guy takes 40% of the milk, right? Like that’s gonna have a shock on everyone else... And that was really, for me, the one that stands out as the sort of the peak of, okay, this is going to be a problem.” (07:30, Steve Burke)

• Only three companies (Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix) provide the memory for US markets; Micron is shifting focus to large-scale AI/data center clients and away from individual consumers. (07:52)
• Tech giants have deep enough pockets to outcompete smaller customers—fueling price hikes.

Consequences for Consumers and the Industry’s Direction

• The Squeeze on Everyday Users
  • Longtime PC enthusiasts feel marginalized as manufacturers chase higher-profit business with AI/data center clients.

    “If you feel like you've supported a particular company or industry for years or decades and suddenly they are posting better profits and revenue than ever, but they no longer want to sell to you, you could see how that would feel like, like they've kind of turned, you know, on, on their roots.” (08:28, Steve Burke)

• The Future: Outgrowing Moore’s Law
  • Iris Behar sees an urgent need for innovative leaps—going “beyond Moore’s Law”—as it’s unsustainable to meet modern AI’s appetite for computing and memory with current models.

    “I don't think [this] is sustainable… So we need to rethink how we should be doing computing in the future. That's beyond Moore's Law.” (09:05, Iris Behar)

  • Hosts speculate that talk of Moore’s Law’s “death” may return soon.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Moore’s Law & Physical Limits:

  “It was a major player in the 80s, and we were living that law, if you will. We were designing these microprocessors, and we saw that we could ride that law and we were able to put more and more functionality on the same chip.” (04:49, Iris Behar)

• On the Sudden Disruption:

  “It’s dead. It's dead. It’s coming. Oh, wait, no. We figured out how to deal with this problem. We really, really are hitting these walls now. It's still not totally dead.” (05:48, Iris Behar)

• On Industry Sentiment:

  “Long live Moore's Law.” (06:20, Darian Woods, tongue-in-cheek)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:20–01:21 – Hosts & Steve Burke introduce the memory price spike (“RAMpocalypse”).
• 03:04–04:12 – Gordon Moore’s Law explained, with archival audio.
• 04:14–05:05 – Iris Behar on her experience “living” Moore's Law.
• 05:17–05:57 – The physical and practical limits to continued exponential progress.
• 06:40–07:52 – Memory demand, supply chain details, and the OpenAI Stargate example.
• 08:28–09:05 – Steve Burke and Iris Behar on user alienation and industry crossroads.
• 09:05–09:25 – Rethinking the future beyond Moore's Law.

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Summary

The episode paints a vivid picture of how a perfect storm of AI-driven demand and physical barriers is challenging the long-held presumption that technology will always get cheaper and better. With memory prices soaring and Moore’s Law faltering as a predictor of consumer benefit, even major brands and loyal tech enthusiasts feel the squeeze, while the industry must contemplate new paths forward. As Iris Behar concludes:

“We need to rethink how we should be doing computing in the future. That's beyond Moore’s Law.” (09:05)

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For listeners and readers alike, this episode offers a concise yet eye-opening look into why the future of affordable tech is suddenly so uncertain—and what might lie ahead.

Transcript

[A]

Okay. Darian, would you rather eat a shoe or Sign up for the Indicator Newsletter?

[B]

Sign up for the Indicator Newsletter Great.

[A]

You can sign [e-mail] Indicator Newsletter

[C]

NPR.

[A]

This is the Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong.

[B]

And I'm Darian Boedes. Steve Burke got into building computers when he was a teenager.

[D]

I built my first system when I was 15, so my dad took me to CompUSA, which is no longer in business.

[A]

RIP I remember going to CompUSA with my dad.

[D]

Yeah, it was a good time.

[B]

Today Steve runs a website called Gamers Nexus that covers the computer industry. Over the decades, he's seen the cost of processes and memory and storage come way down.

[A]

But in the last year, the AI industry's demand for RAM or memory has sent prices skyrocketing. Some products have doubled in price or more.

[D]

It's never been like this. Like right now. It's such a huge spike that people are seeing it reflected in any consumer electronic that has memory, which is most

[A]

of them now, like Nintendo, is raising the price of its Switch 2 gaming system in the US by $50. Apple hiked prices on a bunch of products including an entry level MacBook and its cheapest iPad.

[B]

Today on the show we look at how the Rampocalypse is upending a long held assumption in computer science called Moore's Law. This sometimes contentious ide dear was interpreted to mean that computing power would keep getting better and cheaper.

[A]

But is it? That's after the break.

[E]

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Made in Cookware President and co founder Jake Kalich shares why he was inspired by his family's fourth generation kitchen supply business.

[B]

Growing up in a commercial kitchen at home really opened my eyes to bringing

[F]

what was cool in restaurants into your home.

[B]

And when you think about what we do today, we are asking these chefs for product ideas.

[F]

We are designing products together with them

[B]

that we then realize a home cook can use as well.

[E]

Learn more about Made in Cookware at M a d e I-ncookware.com this message comes from Midi Health CEO Joanna Strober shares why they started a virtual care platform for women in perimenopause and menopause.

[A]

Our goal at MITI is to make sure that all women have access to really expert care starting around 35 and 40, making sure that they get access to all the things that can help them thrive as they're growing older.

[E]

Midi Health committed to helping women in midlife with perimenopause and menopause care accessible via telehealth [e-mail] Moore's Law is named

[A]

for the late Gordon Moore, the co founder of intel and a tech industry pioneer. Here he is talking back in 2015, 2006, when Moore's Law was going strong.

[D]

You know that next year you'll be able to buy something cheaper and more powerful, providing it's electronic. Next year's computers will be faster, cheaper. Next year's cameras will have more megapixels, more memory, cheaper. Is there any other product area other than electronics that gives you this kind of history?

[B]

Gordon Moore said there's something special about semiconductors. This is the material that goes into computer chips and the electronic devices that we all rely on. And in 1965, he made a famous prediction about the semiconductor industry.

[A]

Gordon Moore said that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double every year. Transistors are the microscopic on and off switches you find on computer chips. So Gordon Moore was saying that the industry could fit exponentially more of these switches on a chip every year, and therefore electricity electronics would get faster, smaller, and cheaper.

[B]

Gordon Moore's assertion has been described as a prediction or an observation. It was never meant as a law of nature. Still, this idea became known as Moore's Law.

[C]

I love talking about Moore's Law.

[A]

Iris Behar is a computer science professor and head of the computer science department at the Colorado School of Mines.

[C]

It's been so foundational to computer science, computer engineering. It's really important to understand that history and how we've been benefited throughout the years to understanding where we are today and what we're trying to do today.

[A]

Iris first learned about Moore's Law as an undergraduate student, and she saw it in action during her first job designing microprocessors for a now defunct company called Digital Equipment Corporation.

[C]

It was a major player in the 80s, and in fact, we were living that law, if you will. We were designing these microprocessors, and we saw that we could ride that law and we were able to put more and more functionality on the same chip.

[B]

Iris says the computing industry saw tremendous growth in performance through the 90s and early 2000s. But as chips and transistors shrunk in size, achieving these exponential gains got harder.

[C]

When you're operating in the single nanometer scale, you really are looking at these, you know, single electrons. This just is a real physical limit.

[A]

To put a nanometer in perspective, a single human red blood cell is 7,000 nanometers wide.

[B]

So we're talking about scientists trying to fit ever More transistors onto tiny surfaces. Iris says occasionally some people in the industry would start drafting the obituary for Moore's Law. But then there would be some breakthrough.

[C]

It's dead. It's dead. It's coming. Oh, wait, no. We figured out how to deal with this problem. We really, really are hitting these walls now. It's still not totally dead.

[A]

Yeah, not totally dead. Just last month, IBM announced it had created the world's smallest transistor, measuring under 1 nanometer. The company said it could cram around 100 billion of these transistors onto a chip the size of a fingernail. According to IBM, this was the first time in human history anyone's been able to pack that many transistors into a space that small.

[B]

Long live Moore's Law.

[A]

But Iris says it is requiring more creativity and money to achieve these advancements. And we can no longer take for granted that improvements in technology are associated with cheaper prices. And that's because of our old friends, supply and demand. Right now, demand is huge for computing power and memory.

[B]

Yes, the RAM pocalypse. Iris says computing memory has benefited from Moore's Law over the decades too. Like, remember how USB flash drives got so cheap that they'll just be given away as corporate sweat bag at conferences?

[A]

Yeah, and I put them straight in the garbage. But now memory prices are going through the roof, thanks to the AI boom and the rapid build out of data centers. These facilities require a lot of computing power and a lot of memory.

[B]

Take OpenAI. Last year, it announced a partnership where Samsung will be one of the main suppliers of memory for OpenAI's Stargate initiative. This is a $500 billion AI infrastructure project.

[A]

Steve Burke of Gamers Nexus says the amount of memory OpenAI needs for Stargate amounts to 40% of the world's supply. It's like, let's say you go to the grocery store to buy milk.

[D]

One guy takes 40% of the milk, right? Like that's gonna have a shock on everyone else. And it's just gone out of nowhere, right? It's just like this guy woke up and decided he wanted all that milk today. And that was really, for me, the one that stands out as the sort of the peak of, okay, this is going to be a problem.

[B]

Steve says there are really only three companies that supply the US with computer memory. Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix. Last year, Micron announced it was pulling out of the direct to consumer market. The company plans to focus on larger customers in fast growing segments like AI data centers.

[A]

AI companies have a seemingly unending appetite for computing power and the deep pockets to match. As a result, even big tech companies like Nintendo and Apple are feeling the supply squeeze and have to raise prices.

[B]

And people like Steve's audience of computer enthusiasts are left with a bad feeling.

[D]

If you feel like you've supported a particular company or industry for years or decades and suddenly they are posting better profits and revenue than ever, but they no longer want to sell to you, you could see how that would feel like, like they've kind of turned, you know, on, on their roots.

[A]

Computer science professor Iris Bahara says the industry benefited from Moore's Law for decades and now it's time to get creative again. The billion dollar question is, can technological breakthroughs keep up with the incredible demand for more computing power?

[C]

What we're doing now, actually, I don't think is sustainable with this need for more and more computing and memory for running AI. So we need to rethink how we should be doing computing in the future. That's beyond Moore's Law.

[B]

Who knows, maybe in a few years it will once again be time to dust off the Moore's Law death notice.

[A]

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Robert Rodriguez. It was fact checked by Cierra Juarez. Cake and Cannon is our editor and the indicator is a production of NPR Foreign.

[E]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Charles Schwab with its original podcast on Investing. Each week you'll get thoughtful, in depth analysis of both the stock and the bond markets. Listen today and [e-mail] on investing or wherever you get your podcasts.

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