Help us pick the indicator of the year!

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Indicator from Planet Money Episode Title: Help Us Pick the Indicator of the Year!
Host/Author: NPR
Release Date: December 20, 2024

The Indicator from Planet Money is a succinct and insightful podcast that breaks down complex economic ideas into digestible episodes. In the December 20, 2024 episode titled "Help Us Pick the Indicator of the Year!", the hosts engage in a lively debate to determine which economic indicator best encapsulated the events and trends of 2024. This summary delves into the key discussions, arguments, and conclusions drawn during the episode.

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1. Introduction to the Annual Debate

The episode kicks off with a festive and humorous atmosphere, setting the stage for the annual "Family Feud" style debate among the hosts. The hosts, Adrian Ma, Jeffrey Guo, and Kenny Malone, gather to present and argue for their chosen economic indicators that they believe defined the year 2024.

Notable Quote:

• Adrian Ma (00:38): "It's that time of the year where we gather with friends... to gather with our Planet Money family and do what families do best around the holiday season. Engage in brutal soul breaking arguments."

2. Candidate 1: Consumer Sentiment by Adrian Ma

Adrian Ma advocates for the Consumer Sentiment Index as the indicator of the year. He emphasizes how this index reflects the populace's optimism or pessimism regarding the economy, tying it to significant political and economic shifts observed in 2024.

Key Points:

• Pre-Pandemic Baseline: The index was around 100, indicating general contentment with the economy.
• Current Trends: Dropped to the 70s over the past year, signaling lingering effects of inflation and economic dissatisfaction.
• Political Impact: The decline in consumer sentiment contributed to political unrest, influencing voter behavior and preferences.
• Economic Insights: Despite low unemployment and rising wages, the negative sentiment highlighted underlying economic strains.

Notable Quote:

• Adrian Ma (01:14): "Consumer sentiment isn't just a reflection of the economy. It was a political catalyst that's shaped the world we're currently living in now."

3. Candidate 2: Bitcoin Price by Jeffrey Guo

Jeffrey Guo presents the Price of Bitcoin as his indicator, arguing that its fluctuations mirror public trust and sentiment towards financial institutions and future economic uncertainties.

Key Points:

• Annual Performance: Bitcoin's price surged from approximately $42,000 to over $100,000.
• Historical Context: Created post-2008 financial crisis, symbolizing institutional distrust.
• Current Analysis: The rise may indicate increased uncertainty or speculative trust in cryptocurrency-friendly policies of the incoming administration.
• Symbolic Representation: Serves as a modern Rorschach test for public perception of global institutions and their trajectories.

Notable Quote:

• Jeffrey Guo (03:13): "Bitcoin is a modern value is a very 2024 Rorschach test for how people feel about the world's institutions and where they are headed."

4. Candidate 3: Beveridge Curve by Kenny Malone

Kenny Malone introduces the Beveridge Curve as his choice, highlighting its significance in understanding the relationship between unemployment rates and job openings, especially in the context of the Federal Reserve's policies.

Key Points:

• Definition: The Beveridge Curve illustrates the relationship between unemployment rates and job vacancies.
• 2024 Anomaly: Despite a reduction in job openings due to the Fed's tightening measures, unemployment rates did not rise significantly.
• Economic Implication: Suggests a "broken" Beveridge Curve, indicating effective inflation control without triggering substantial unemployment.
• Soft Landing Achievement: Highlights the Federal Reserve's success in taming inflation while maintaining employment stability.

Notable Quote:

• Kenny Malone (06:03): "The Beveridge Curve seemed kind of broken. And that is a good thing because it means that the Fed has been able to tame inflation without inflicting a lot of painful unemployment on everybody."

5. Host Interactions and Humor

The debate is interspersed with light-hearted banter and humorous exchanges, showcasing the hosts' camaraderie and the podcast's engaging style. Instances include playful critiques of each other's indicators and moments of improvisational humor relating to their discussions.

Notable Quotes:

• Jeffrey Guo (03:03): "I'm not here to rag on other people's indicators. But I will say, in last year's Family Feud, I won indicator of the year with consumer sentiment."
• Kenny Malone (04:49): "You think so?"
• Jeffrey Guo (04:25): "The indicator of the year."

6. Conclusion and Listener Engagement

After presenting their cases, the hosts invite listeners to participate by voting for their preferred indicator. They provide multiple avenues for engagement, including email and social media platforms. Additionally, they express gratitude towards their listeners and supporters, emphasizing the importance of public media and encouraging contributions to NPR.

Notable Quotes:

• Adrian Ma (07:33): "Okay, so we've made our cases for Indicator of the Year. Now it's your turn to vote, listeners."
• Jeffrey Guo (07:52): "Before we wrap up, we did want to take a moment as the year comes to a close to say thank you to each other, but to you listener for your support."

7. Closing Remarks and Production Credits

The episode concludes with final remarks about supporting public media, followed by production credits acknowledging the team behind the podcast. The hosts share a humorous final exchange about indoor fires and cognitive effects, aligning with the episode's lighthearted tone.

Notable Quote:

• Jeffrey Guo (08:58): "That's what a flue is for. You have to open the flue and let the CO2 go out the chimney. That's why."

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How to Vote: Listeners are encouraged to vote for their favorite indicator by emailing [e-mail] or commenting on Planet Money's Instagram page @planetmoney. Your participation helps determine which economic indicator most accurately represented the year 2024.

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Supporting NPR: The hosts extend their gratitude towards NPR listeners, highlighting the importance of donations in sustaining public media. They promote NPR's Planet Money+ subscription, offering perks like sponsor-free listening and access to bonus content.

Notable Quote:

• Kenny Malone (08:20): "A small recurring donation gets you perks for more than 25 NPR podcasts like Sponsor Free Listening and Bonus episodes. Go to plus.NPR.org for details."

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This episode of The Indicator from Planet Money offers an engaging blend of economic analysis, friendly competition, and listener interaction, encapsulating the podcast's mission to make sense of complex economic phenomena in an accessible and entertaining manner.

Transcript

[Kenny Malone]

Npr.

[Adrian Ma]

This is the indicator for Planet Money. I'm Adrian Ma. It's that.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Hey, this is a weird request. Are we able to run a crackling fire under this whole intro? Is that possible? Oh, I'm Kenny Malone from Planet Money.

[Adrian Ma]

Ah, yes. I can feel the warmth right now.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Jeff, come on in. Come around the fire. Come on in. Come on.

[Kenny Malone]

Thanks. Thanks, guys. It's getting kind of cold out there.

[Jeffrey Guo]

There's Jeffrey Guo. Jeff Guo. Great. Great to have you here. It's so cozy in here.

[Kenny Malone]

Love, Love. A combustion event.

[Adrian Ma]

It's that time of the year where we gather with friends, or as we do on the indicator, where we gather with our Planet Money family and do what families do best around the holiday season. Engage in brutal soul breaking arguments. Yes, in a fashion most public.

[Jeffrey Guo]

The there's nothing like it. It's time for Family Feud. That's right.

[Adrian Ma]

Family Feud. Just to recap the rules, each of us will make a spiel, an argument for why our indicator is the indicator of the year. And we'll only have 60 seconds or less to do it, or else we die.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Hey, that is too loud. Come on.

[Adrian Ma]

And in the end, you, dear listener, will vote on who had the indicator of 2024. That's all after the break.

[Jeffrey Guo]

All right, Family Feud. Indicator of the year. We're gonna have 60 seconds on the clock. Each of us is gonna have a chance to make our case for the indicator that best captured the year 2024. Adrian, why don't you then take it first 60 seconds on the clock and go.

[Adrian Ma]

Nothing captures 2024 quite like my indicator of the year. Consumer sentiment. America's emotional barometer for how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are feeling about the economy. In pre pandemic times. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was hovering around 100, meaning people felt okay about the economy. But for the past year, it's been down around the 70s. And this one indicator explains so much of what we saw this past year. It shows how people still felt the pain of inflation. It explains why people felt lousy about the economy despite low unemployment and rising wages. And it explains why a lot of voters wanted to ditch the Democrats and bring Donald Trump back into office. The latest consumer sentiment numbers even show how Republicans felt a surge of optimism about the economy right after the election, while Democrats felt the opposite. In short, consumer sentiment isn't just a reflection of the economy. It was a political catalyst that's shaped the world we're currently living in now. Boom.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Look, I'm not here to rag on other people's indicators. But I will say, in last year's Family Feud, I won indicator of the year with consumer sentiment.

[Adrian Ma]

Okay, let's see if you could do better. Kenny. Yeah. What's your indicator of the year?

[Jeffrey Guo]

All right, Ready? Put it on the clock. Are we ready? Someone give me the go.

[Adrian Ma]

Okay. Three, two, one. One.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Total diamond hands. My indicator of the year is the price of Bitcoin. One Bitcoin at the start of the year costs around $42,000. It is now above 100. Bitcoin was created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Distrust of institutions is baked into its very existence. And yet today, it's true that maybe some people are buying this because they see uncertainty on the horizon, more distrust of institutions. But what seems to be more prominent in an explanation is the spike, is that people assume the incoming administration is going to be very friendly to crypto, which, ironically, is, I guess, a kind of trust. Crypto trust in incoming institutions. Either way, I think bitcoin is an indicator of the year because its very existence, its modern value is a very 2024 Rorschach test for how people feel about the world's institutions and where they are headed. Thank you very much. I rest my case.

[Kenny Malone]

Okay. Bitcoin.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Can I ask. I'll be honest. Did that make any sense? I don't want to sound unconvinced in my own argument, but what do you think?

[Adrian Ma]

I think you gave it away at the end there when you said that bitcoin is a indicator of the year.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Oh, no. Did I say that?

[Adrian Ma]

The indicator of the year.

[Kenny Malone]

So Kenny's subconscious thwarting him again.

[Jeffrey Guo]

No retest.

[Kenny Malone]

I mean, the way I would think about it. The way I would challenge our listeners to think about it is when in 40, 50 years. I don't know, when you're telling your grandchildren, man, 2024 was about blank. Are they gonna say 2024 was about Bitcoin?

[Jeffrey Guo]

They might. Bitcoin. They might.

[Kenny Malone]

You think so?

[Jeffrey Guo]

Well, I don't feel great about that effort. I'm gonna be honest, but that's okay. Jeff guo, let's put 60 seconds on the clock.

[Kenny Malone]

Actually, guys, before we get started, I'm actually a little parched, so just. Just give me one second. Like, I'm serious.

[Jeffrey Guo]

I actually.

[Kenny Malone]

I just need to get something real quick. Hold on.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Where is Jeff? What is Jeff doing? Didn't we say. Didn't we say no bits? No bits? What? No shenanigans.

[Kenny Malone]

No one said that.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Jeff has literally wandered off camera. His Camera is off. He's making us wait. I haven't. We have passed my heart out for this recording when I must go pick up my children. And yet Jeff must go get a can of soda for. For whatever he's about to do.

[Adrian Ma]

Disrespectful. Am very confused right now.

[Jeffrey Guo]

I'm back. I'm back.

[Kenny Malone]

I'm back. I'm back. My apologies to Kenny's children. They are wonderful.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Um, okay, you can pay the daycare fee when we're late.

[Kenny Malone]

Okay, so now with my ice cold beverage in hand, I can tell you about my indicator of the year, which is the beverage curve, which, to be fair, has nothing actually to do with beverages at all.

[Jeffrey Guo]

No, it has nothing to do with beverages.

[Kenny Malone]

It's not even spelled the same. But anyway. Someone want to start the clock?

[Jeffrey Guo]

Yes. Oh, that is what we were waiting for. Wonderful upon. I was thirsty. Three, three, two, one, go. Ah.

[Kenny Malone]

Okay, so the Beveridge curve, which is named after the economist William Beveridge, is the name that economists have for the relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of job openings. So, for instance, usually when job openings go down, it's harder to find jobs and unemployment goes up. But. But this past year, as the Fed was pumping the brakes on the economy, something weird was happening. Companies were posting fewer and fewer job openings, but unemployment wasn't really going up that much. In other words, the beverage curve seemed kind of broken. And that is a good thing because it means that the Fed has been able to tame inflation without inflicting a lot of painful unemployment on everybody. It's almost as if a lot of those disappearing job openings were just like, you know, just like, you know, the froth on top of a carbonated beverage. Get it? Get it. Okay. Anyway, to me, that is the big story of 2024, the broken beverage curve that helped us get to the soft landing. The soft landing. We got.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Your time's over. Your time's over.

[Kenny Malone]

Well, we almost got the soft landing.

[Jeffrey Guo]

After all of that buildup, we have half a mind to have only given you 45 seconds anyway. You're lucky you got the full minute, Jeff. Guys, now that we've gotten the feud out of the way, everybody, let's go ahead. Let the old fire up again. We can be cozy together and be friends, because that really is what the holiday is about. It's about fighting briefly and coming back together and then dorking sitting in front.

[Kenny Malone]

Of a chemical reaction.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Yeah, it's a beautiful, beautiful thing.

[Adrian Ma]

Yes. Okay, so we've made our cases for Indicator of the Year. Now it's your turn to vote, listeners. You can email us with your [e-mail] or check out our posts on Planet Money's Instagram planetmoney and leave your choice in the comments.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Before we wrap up, we did want to take a moment as the year comes to a close to say thank you to each other, but to you listener for your support. It is what keeps NPR going. It's a nonprofit news organization and it keeps the Indicator and Planet Money going.

[Adrian Ma]

An easy way to support our work is through npr. If you've already joined, we appreciate it. But if you've never given to public media or haven't given in a while, consider it now.

[Kenny Malone]

A small recurring donation gets you perks for more than 25 NPR podcasts like Sponsor Free Listening and Bonus episodes. Go to plus.NPR.org for details. Thank you again for being a part of the public media community.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Jeff, do you mind throwing. Just go ahead and throw a log on there while we do the credits. Oh, yeah. Whoa. Not that big, Jeff. Jeez.

[Kenny Malone]

You know, it's not that good to have indoor fires because of the CO2. It makes people drowsy and it also inhibits cognition.

[Jeffrey Guo]

That's what a flue is for. You have to open the flue and let the CO2 go out the chimney. That's why.

[Adrian Ma]

That's.

[Jeffrey Guo]

That's. Yes. You shouldn't have a fire on your kitchen table. Sure.

[Kenny Malone]

Wait, is that why they call it flu blue powder? Kenny?

[Jeffrey Guo]

Yes. Maybe.

[Kenny Malone]

No.

[Jeffrey Guo]

I don't know.

[Kenny Malone]

Yes.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Cheb. Cheb.

[Kenny Malone]

Oddly.

[Jeffrey Guo]

Cheb. Cheb. O Ray. Cheb. Cheb. Chorro. Alright, shall we wrap it up?

[Adrian Ma]

This episode was produced by Angel Carreras and engineered by Gilly Moon. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez Cake and Cannon edits the show in the indicators of production of NPR.