Waylon Wong (3:00)

Carissa Tang's story starts with Boba.

Stephen Messaha (3:03)

Oh, bubble tea, right?

Waylon Wong (3:04)

Yes. Are you a big bubble tea guy?

Stephen Messaha (3:07)

I am actually abstained of all caffeine drinks. I don't want the caffeine headaches.

Waylon Wong (3:11)

Oh, you are a monk, Stephen. Well, I love Taro and Carissa's go to is Matcha. What level ice do you do?

Carissa Tang (3:19)

I do less ice because I want them to fill it up with more with the drink and. And then I do 20% sugar and keeping it healthy.

Waylon Wong (3:27)

Keeping it healthy, yeah. Carissa is 17 years old and lives in Silicon Valley. She's a senior in high school, and one of her aunts actually owns a boba tea shop.

Carissa Tang (3:37)

So many of my classmates asked if I can hook them up with my aunt for a summer job. But surprisingly, she wasn't in need of any employees. And this really piqued my interest because I thought, you know, it shouldn't be too hard to get a summer job.

Stephen Messaha (3:50)

Now, maybe your average teenager would have said, that's interesting, and, you know, moved on. But Carissa, she is not average. For one thing, she and her brother designed a strategy board game called Booted while they were sick with COVID in 2022. They actually got the game manufactured and you could buy it right now online.

Waylon Wong (4:07)

And Carissa started volunteering as a research assistant by cold emailing George Geiss. He's on the faculty at UCLA's business school.

George Geiss (4:15)

Most of us on the faculty get approached maybe at least once a month by students who want to do something with us and work, but Carissa stood out.

Stephen Messaha (4:24)

For example, Carissa described herself as a rising junior, which is a pretty clever way to say sophomore. And her resume impressed George, so he took her on.

George Geiss (4:34)

Over the years, I've had probably over 100 research assistants, teaching assistants, most of whom are MBAs or PhDs. And I was struck by the fact that Carissa was coming back with work at a level that was as good as I've seen from much more developed and sophisticated students as far as their educational level.

Waylon Wong (4:57)

George also encouraged Carissa to pursue her own research project. And this brings us back to her aunt not hiring any teens for her boba shop.

Carissa Tang (5:06)

And I learned that it's because AI powered kiosks were replacing the counter rolls at many tea shops. So that takes out, what, two to three employees per shop. And then I looked into a bit more and saw that AI was taking over many teen jobs. For example, AI powered self checkout is taking over many cashier jobs. Or gen AI assistants are taking over many retail salespersons jobs. And that launched me into this research paper.

Stephen Messaha (5:29)

Chrisa set out to quantify the impact of AI on teenage jobs. And here's what she did. First, she looked up the top 10 most popular jobs for workers ages 16 to 19, based on BLS data. The number one job is cashier. Around 13% of teens are in this role. That was my teenage job as well.

Waylon Wong (5:49)

Nice.

Stephen Messaha (5:50)

Number two is restaurant server. Number three is fast food counter worker.

Waylon Wong (5:55)

After Carissa compiled the list of top 10 jobs, she researched AI technology that could displace those jobs. Take restaurant cooks, for example. About 5% of working teens are cooks, according to the BLS.

Stephen Messaha (6:07)

And Carissa learned about a cooking robot that's used by restaurants like White Castle. The robot is an automated fry station that can make french fries and chicken tenders.

Carissa Tang (6:16)

I would look at the current amount of units deployed for cooking robots and then the growth rate for them, and then from there, determine the number of units expected to be deployed in five years, and then estimated the number of employees that each unit of AI tech will impact. And then the total number of employees displaced and the total number of teen employees displaced.

Waylon Wong (6:36)

Carissa repeated these steps for all of the top teen jobs, including cashiers, fast food counter workers, and customer service representatives.

Carissa Tang (6:44)

If there was one headline to cap all of it off, it'd be that my analysis predicts a 27% decline in team jobs by 2030.

Waylon Wong (6:53)

A 27% decline. It's a pretty dramatic effect. Carissa calculated that the biggest loss would be in cashier jobs. That would see a 54% drop as retailers replace human cashiers with digital kiosks and self checkout stations.

Stephen Messaha (7:07)

And this isn't just affecting teens, right? I mean, like, you see middle aged and older workers in these jobs too, for sure.

Waylon Wong (7:13)

Although if you look at the median age for cashiers in the US it's in the 20s.

Stephen Messaha (7:17)

There were some bright spots in Karissa's analysis. Like some teen jobs look to be safe from AI displacement in the near future. These include restaurant hosts and cooks. Karissa says she believes this is because these jobs require interpersonal skills or more sophisticated physical movements.

Waylon Wong (7:33)

So, like those fry robots you talked about, Stephen, they don't pose a huge threat in the short term. Chris's analysis determined that the impact on teen cooks would be minimal, at least before 2030. And one of her first jobs is probably safe, too, coaching basketball at her old middle school.

Stephen Messaha (7:50)

But, you know, an overall 27% decline in teen jobs, that is a significant result. A recent review of research by the OECD found that kids who got work experience in school reap benefits as adults, including higher salaries.

Carissa Tang (8:05)

It definitely felt very applicable, but definitely a little bit fearful in the sense that, you know, how are we going to learn all these important financial literacy or social skills or life skills that we get from a job.

Stephen Messaha (8:15)

Carissa is far from an AI Luddite. She used that technology to generate posters for an event she planned at her church. And she uses ChatGPT as a study aid at school.

Carissa Tang (8:26)

In my oral history class, we would have to remember these times and dates and people and places from our history notes. And maybe I'm just a little bit, a little bit lazy, but it was kind of a lot for me to look through these like pages upon pages of notes. So what I did instead was I would take photos of all of them, upload it to ChatGPT and have ChatGPT create an imaginative, creative story for me to remember all these terms. And on the way to school I just plug in my, my headphones and, and listen to ChatGPT, read the story aloud and, and that'll be one way to help me study for the exam.

Waylon Wong (9:00)

It is very self effacing of her to say she's a little bit lazy because she did this whole economic research project and her 20 page paper ends with policy ideas. For example, educators should emphasize critical thinking skills and digital literacy over routine tasks. And that schools should make entrepreneurship part of their curriculum. She thinks this will teach students how to adapt to all these economic changes.

Stephen Messaha (9:25)

George Geiss at UCLA says he was impressed with Carissa's analytical skills and creativity.

George Geiss (9:30)

She was just not doing a doomsday type of paper. She was suggesting practical solutions as well as reflecting a certain concern about her cohort and her age. So she's, she's not a self absorbed teenager in the classical sense. She's very much looking outward.

Stephen Messaha (9:51)

Now. Carissa is looking forward. She's working on submitting her paper to economic journals and she'll be graduating high school this year and wants to study business or economics in college. George wrote her a glowing recommendation letter.

Waylon Wong (10:05)

And while we're on the subject of jobs, Stephen, you have a new one?

Stephen Messaha (10:09)

Yes, I do. I will be starting my new role as NPR personal finance reporter on Monday.

Waylon Wong (10:16)

Big congrats and special thanks to the Gulf States newsroom for letting us borrow you for these past few months. This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Robert Rodriguez. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Caitkin Cannon edits the show and the Indicator is a production of NPR.