The Indicator from Planet Money

Episode: How AI is Shrinking the Job Market for Teens

Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Waylon Wong & Stephen Messaha
Guest: Carissa Tang, High School Student & Young Researcher
Special Contributor: George Geiss, UCLA Business School Faculty

Episode Overview

This episode explores the shrinking job market for teenagers in the U.S. due to the rapid expansion of AI-powered automation, especially in entry-level service roles traditionally filled by young workers. The hosts interview Carissa Tang, a high school senior in Silicon Valley, who used original economic research to quantify AI’s impact on teen employment. The episode discusses her findings, the broader implications for youth workforce development, and ideas to better prepare young people for a changing job landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. December Jobs Report: The Big Picture

• [00:14] The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released December numbers:
  • U.S. added 50,000 jobs in December; unemployment at 4.4%.
  • Revisions show 76,000 fewer jobs added in October and November than previously reported, signaling a cooling labor market at year-end 2025.

2. AI’s Immediate Impact on Teen-Focused Sectors

• [00:55] Food service jobs increased slightly; retail jobs declined—both sectors where automation is rising.
• Examples include fast-food counter workers and cashiers.

3. Carissa Tang’s Story: Personal Curiosity Leads to Research

• [03:27] Carissa, a Silicon Valley high schooler, noticed her aunt’s boba tea shop wasn’t hiring teens due to new AI-powered kiosks.
• Sparked her research into AI’s broader impact on teen employment.
• Quote [01:20] Carissa Tang:
  "I think an AI tsunami wave is gonna come regardless, and it's gonna drastically change our lives. I guess the question that we're trying to answer is not how to prevent this from happening, but what to do in the face of AI."

4. Research Process: Quantifying AI’s Impact

• [05:29] Carissa analyzed the top 10 jobs for teens (ages 16–19) using BLS data.
  • #1: Cashier (13% of teens)
  • #2: Restaurant server
  • #3: Fast food counter worker
• For each, she matched emerging AI technologies that could replace those roles (e.g., retail kiosks, cooking robots).
• Used deployment rates and projected growth to estimate displacement over five years.

Memorable Methodology Example:

• [06:16] Carissa Tang:
  "I would look at the current amount of units deployed for cooking robots and then the growth rate for them, and then from there, determine the number of units expected to be deployed in five years, and then estimated the number of employees that each unit of AI tech will impact..."

5. Findings: A Bleak Forecast for Teen Jobs

• [06:44] Carissa Tang:
  "If there was one headline to cap all of it off, it'd be that my analysis predicts a 27% decline in team jobs by 2030."
• The biggest hit comes to cashier jobs, which Carissa projects will see a 54% decrease as automation replaces human roles.

But Not All Bad News: Some Roles Are More Resistant

• Restaurant hosts and cooks expected to be less affected (require more interpersonal skills, complex movements).
• Coaching and roles needing nuanced judgment also considered safer until 2030.

6. The Value of Teen Employment, and What’s at Stake

• [07:50] Research (OECD) supports the long-term benefits of teen work (higher adult salaries, more life skills).
• Carissa expresses concern about how teens will gain financial literacy and social skills if job opportunities shrink.
• Quote [08:05] Carissa Tang:
  "How are we going to learn all these important financial literacy or social skills or life skills that we get from a job?"

7. Carissa’s Personal Relationship with AI

• She uses ChatGPT and other tools for schoolwork, e.g., turning history notes into stories for easier memorization.
• [08:26] Carissa Tang:
  "I would take photos of all of [my notes], upload it to ChatGPT and have ChatGPT create an imaginative, creative story for me to remember all these terms..."

8. Policy Ideas: Adapting to the AI Job Market

• Carissa’s 20-page research paper concludes with practical recommendations:
  • Schools should emphasize critical thinking and digital literacy over rote tasks.
  • Entrepreneurship should be integrated into the curriculum to help students adapt and innovate through economic shifts.
• [09:00] Waylon Wong:
  "Her 20 page paper ends with policy ideas. For example, educators should emphasize critical thinking skills and digital literacy over routine tasks..."

9. Mentor’s Perspective: Carissa’s Notable Qualities

• [09:30] George Geiss:
  "She was just not doing a doomsday type of paper. She was suggesting practical solutions as well as reflecting a certain concern about her cohort and her age. So she's, she's not a self absorbed teenager in the classical sense. She's very much looking outward."

10. Next Steps & Reflections

• Carissa is submitting her research to economic journals, graduating high school, and aiming to study business or economics in college.
• George Geiss wrote her a glowing recommendation.
• [10:09] Stephen Messaha announces his new role as NPR’s personal finance reporter.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:20] Carissa Tang:
  "I think an AI tsunami wave is gonna come regardless, and it's gonna drastically change our lives."

• [06:44] Carissa Tang (on her key finding):
  "My analysis predicts a 27% decline in teen jobs by 2030."

• [08:05] Carissa Tang (on what’s lost without teen jobs):
  "How are we going to learn all these important financial literacy or social skills or life skills that we get from a job."

• [09:30] George Geiss:
  "She was just not doing a doomsday type of paper. She was suggesting practical solutions as well as reflecting a certain concern about her cohort and her age."

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:14] December jobs report overview
• [00:55] Food service vs retail jobs, automation in both
• [03:00] Introduction to Carissa Tang and personal story
• [04:15] Carissa connects with George Geiss at UCLA
• [05:29] Research process—identifying and quantifying job displacement
• [06:44] Carissa’s key finding: 27% decline in teen jobs by 2030
• [07:33] Exceptions—jobs that are safer from automation
• [08:05] Broader impact on youth skill-building
• [08:26] Carissa’s use of AI for homework/studying
• [09:00] Policy ideas for education’s response to AI
• [09:30] George Geiss’s perspective on Carissa’s work
• [10:09] Stephen Messaha’s new job announcement

Summary Takeaways

• AI is rapidly automating many entry-level jobs typically held by teens (especially cashiers), and by 2030, more than a quarter of teen jobs could disappear.
• Some roles that require human interaction or physical dexterity appear more resilient (e.g., hosts, cooks, youth coaches).
• The decline of teen employment could impact the next generation’s financial and social skill development, with potential long-term consequences.
• Carissa Tang’s research offers practical educational policy recommendations: prioritize skills that AI cannot match and prepare students to thrive alongside new technologies.
• Carissa exemplifies a proactive and constructive approach to disruptive change, merging rigorous research with adaptive optimism.

The Indicator from Planet Money continues to highlight how macroeconomic shifts—like automation—have direct, tangible consequences for individual workers and communities, starting with the jobs available to America’s youngest employees.