How many times can you say uncertainty in one economic report?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Indicator from Planet Money

Episode Title: How many times can you say uncertainty in one economic report?
Host/Author: NPR
Release Date: March 13, 2025

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Introduction: The Beige Book and Its Evolution

In this episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Robert Smith and Waylon Wong delve into the pervasive theme of uncertainty that has recently dominated economic discussions. The episode commences with a playful banter about the term "beige," referencing both the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and a contemporary social media aesthetic clash among influencers. This light-hearted opening sets the stage for a deeper exploration of economic uncertainties.

Robert Smith [00:16]: "Waylon, what do you think when you hear the word beige?"
Waylon Wong [00:16]: "Well, Robert Smith, my first instinct is to think about the government publication known as the Beige Book."

The Rise of Uncertainty in Economic Reporting

The conversation quickly shifts to the central theme: uncertainty. The hosts highlight that the term "uncertainty" appeared 45 times in the latest Beige Book, marking a significant increase from previous reports. This surge underscores a growing sentiment of unpredictability within various economic sectors.

Waylon Wong [03:55]: "And this time in the Beige Book, one big thing stood out to Robert and me. The word uncertainty. That word showed up 45 times in the Beige Book. That's a new record and more than twice what it's been recently."

Robert Smith adds that such a high frequency of the term reflects a profound level of doubt among business leaders and economists.

Robert Smith [04:09]: "That is a very specific level of uncertainty. It's like the smartest people in business are throwing up their hands right now and saying, hell if I know what's gonna happen."

Tariffs: A Major Contributor to Uncertainty

A significant portion of the uncertainty is attributed to fluctuating tariff policies. The hosts discuss how inconsistent actions related to tariffs—such as imposing, lifting, delaying, and even mocking them—are creating instability and stress within industries.

Robert Smith [04:31]: "Part of that is tariffs. Tariffs were mentioned 49 times in the Beige Book, by the way. The president has been slapping tariffs on and then unslapping those same tariffs and then delaying the slap and then doing that thing where you sort of fake a slap and then point and laugh."

Waylon Wong emphasizes the emotional toll these tariff uncertainties are taking on businesses.

Waylon Wong [04:47]: "As detailed in the Beige Book, the Minneapolis Fed reports that the head of a trade group in the District said we're seeing a nervousness around tariffs and its impact on the industry nervousness."

Spotlight on Agriculture: Farmer Zarlan Woodard’s Struggles

The episode transitions to a personal story that encapsulates the broader economic uncertainties: the plight of Zarlan Woodard, a fourth-generation farmer from Tunica, Mississippi. Zarlan's farm, Urban Hills Farm, is grappling with the dual challenges of rising fertilizer costs due to tariffs and unstable soybean prices exacerbated by international trade tensions.

Zarlan Woodard [07:40]: "A lot of our fertilizer comes from Canada, and with tariffs that's hitting Canada now, that's going to really drive up the price of fertilizer, which ultimately affects your overall profit margin."

Faced with these challenges, Zarlan is forced to pivot from rice to soybeans—a move complicated by low and volatile soybean prices influenced by global markets, such as Brazil's large soybean crop and China's retaliatory tariffs.

Robert Smith [08:45]: "Zarlin is changing his plans right now based on the tariffs. Rice, the crop, rice apparently takes a lot of fertilizer to grow, so he's switching to soybeans, which requires a lot less fertilizer. But soybean prices are low and they're unstable."

Zarlan's predicament highlights the tangible impacts of economic policies on individual livelihoods and underscores the difficult decisions farmers must make in uncertain times.

Zarlan Woodard [09:01]: "It'll get to some point to where you have to make that decision to where are you going to continue to farm? Because if you can make a profit, you know, there's no point in continuing."

Awarding the St. Louis Fed: Recognizing Resilience Amid Uncertainty

In a segment titled the Beiji Awards, the hosts honor the St. Louis Federal Reserve for its insightful contributions to understanding economic uncertainty. Charles Gaskin, an economist from the St. Louis Fed, explains how sectors like construction and agriculture, despite rampant uncertainty, must forge ahead.

Robert Smith [05:27]: "The Beige award goes to the St. Louis Fed."
Charles Gaskin [07:05]: "We are heading to New York to see family and to hit the sights in the city."

Gaskin elaborates on the specific challenges these industries face, such as worker shortages in construction due to immigration policies and high input costs in agriculture. Despite these hurdles, businesses in these sectors are compelled to continue operations, embodying resilience in the face of unpredictability.

Charles Gaskin [07:05]: "We've had relatively high row crop prices for the better part of the last decade, but they are at historically low levels right now."

The award acknowledges the St. Louis Fed’s comprehensive analysis and reporting, which provide valuable insights into navigating such turbulent economic landscapes.

Personal Touch: Balancing Professional and Personal Lives

Amidst the heavy discussion on economic uncertainty, the episode offers a glimpse into the personal lives of the hosts and guests. Charles Gaskin shares his plans to spend spring break with his family in New York, juxtaposing the pressures of economic analysis with the desire for personal respite.

Charles Gaskin [09:49]: "We are heading to New York to see family and to hit the sights in the city."

This humanizes the economic discourse, reminding listeners that behind every report and statistic are individuals striving to balance work and personal life.

Conclusion: Navigating Through the Fog of Uncertainty

The episode wraps up by reinforcing the pervasive theme of uncertainty and its multifaceted impact on different sectors of the economy. From individual farmers like Zarlan Woodard to regional Federal Reserve Banks, the episode paints a comprehensive picture of an economy grappling with unpredictability.

Waylon Wong [09:55]: "We may not be on the cutting edge of fashion, but we know what's hot and what's not in the economy."

Hosts Robert Smith and Waylon Wong effectively synthesize the complex narratives from the Beige Book, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of current economic challenges and the resilience required to navigate them.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Robert Smith [04:09]: "That is a very specific level of uncertainty. It's like the smartest people in business are throwing up their hands right now and saying, hell if I know what's gonna happen."

• Zarlan Woodard [07:40]: "A lot of our fertilizer comes from Canada, and with tariffs that's hitting Canada now, that's going to really drive up the price of fertilizer, which ultimately affects your overall profit margin."

• Zarlan Woodard [09:01]: "It'll get to some point to where you have to make that decision to where are you going to continue to farm? Because if you can make a profit, you know, there's no point in continuing."

• Charles Gaskin [07:05]: "We've had relatively high row crop prices for the better part of the last decade, but they are at historically low levels right now."

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This episode of The Indicator from Planet Money offers a compelling exploration of economic uncertainty, blending macroeconomic analysis with personal stories to provide a holistic view of the current economic climate. Whether you're an economics enthusiast or simply curious about how broader policies impact individual lives, this episode delivers valuable insights in an engaging and accessible manner.

Transcript

[NPR]

Npr.

[Robert Smith]

Waylon, what do you think when you hear the word beige?

[Waylon Wong]

Well, Robert Smith, my first instinct is to think about the government publication known as the Beige Book.

[Robert Smith]

Cause you're a nerd.

[Waylon Wong]

And how we at the Indicator always do a fun show when the Beige Book is released.

[Robert Smith]

I mean, we kind of invented the beige franchise in podcasting. So imagine my horror when I discovered that two TikTok influencers are fighting over who owns the beige aesthetic in social media.

[Waylon Wong]

How very dare they? I do know there is something called the clean girl vibe on the Internet. Women who love to wear neutral and cream and have immaculate minimalist houses. I know nothing about this, being cluttered and maximalist myself.

[Robert Smith]

Well, apparently there are two women who do live that way and they're trying to market that same vibe. And one has sued the other for $150,000 for mental anguish. Legal experts are calling it the Sad Beige Lawsuit.

[Waylon Wong]

Well, that sounds super depressing. So maybe we should emphasize that we invented the happy beige vibe.

[Robert Smith]

And I will note that the Beige Book was first published by the Federal Reserve 50, 55 years ago. So maybe we should all be paying them.

[Waylon Wong]

They've got enough gold in their vault, Robert. Let's just give them an award.

[Robert Smith]

It's the Beiji Awards, our eight times a year salute to the art and science of telling stories about the economy. I'm Robert Smith.

[Waylon Wong]

And I'm Waylon Wong. We may not be on the cutting edge of fashion, but we know what's hot and what's not in the economy. On this edition of the Beiji Awards, we find that businesses and economists across the nation are certain of only one thing. Uncertainty.

[Robert Smith]

So much uncertainty. And we'll meet one man whose farm is being crushed by it. After the break.

[NPR]

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[Robert Smith]

I always like to remind everyone how this award show works. There are 12 regional banks in the Federal Reserve System. Each one carefully studies their local economy and and brings back these little stories of what they see. They publish them in the document known as the Beige Book. We read it so you don't have to, and then we give awards to the very best stories.

[Waylon Wong]

And this time in the Beige Book, one big thing stood out to Robert and me. The word uncertainty. That word showed up 45 times in the Beige Book. That's a new record and more than twice what it's been recently.

[Robert Smith]

That is a very specific level of uncertainty. It's like the smartest people in business are throwing up their hands right now and saying, hell if I know what's gonna happen.

[Waylon Wong]

Honestly, it's really scary. Businesses depend on planning. How many products should I buy? How many people should I hire? How much money should I set aside for the future? And right now everyone is flying in the dark.

[Robert Smith]

Part of that is tariffs. Tariffs were mentioned 49 times in the Beige Book, by the way. The president has been slapping tariffs on and then unslapping those same tariffs and then delaying the slap and then doing that thing where you sort of fake a slap and then point and laugh.

[Waylon Wong]

And that is creating a lot of feelings. As detailed in the Beige Book, the Minneapolis Fed reports that the head of a trade group in the District said we're seeing a nervousness around tariffs and its impact on the industry nervousness.

[Robert Smith]

The Dallas Fed reported in their Beige Book entry, quote, respondents said the back and forth tariff talk has been stressful and that the heightened uncertainty is highly disruptive.

[Waylon Wong]

Stress and nerves, a bad combo if I've ever heard one. But we gotta pick up the mood here. It is an award show, after all, and we, we can't be ringing our hands on the red carpet all day. Robert, please pass me the envelope.

[Robert Smith]

Here you go.

[Waylon Wong]

The Beijing award goes to the St. Louis Fed.

[Robert Smith]

Coming to the stage is an economist for the St. Louis Fed, Charles Gaskin. Or, or wait, did you go by Chuck?

[Charles Gaskin]

Either one. I mean, my mom calls me Charles, so we'll go with Charles.

[Robert Smith]

Okay.

[Charles Gaskin]

Everyone else calls me Chuck, but if she hears this, I think she, she'd prefer to hear Charles.

[Robert Smith]

Well, congratulations, Charles, and congratulations to your mother too. Your entry in the Beige book stood out because you mentioned a couple of industries beset by uncertainty, but that have no choice but to move forward anyway. You talked about construction and construction firms and how they're facing worker shortages because of immigration policy and potentially paying more because of tariffs. But once you break ground in the spring, like, you have to keep building.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, and the second story that stood out to us was about agriculture, farming, another industry where you have to start right now in the spring, even even though the future is scary and unknown at this point. The award winning entry from the Beige.

[Robert Smith]

Book reads, quote, a contact in Memphis noted that the current agricultural market was in a worse spot than the same time last year with low cash flows due to high input costs and low commodity prices. Contacts noted that tariffs policy uncertainty and a lack of clarity regarding farm bill safety nets were negatively impacting the sector. Some farmers also reported having no expectation of profits in the 2025 crop year and others have gone out of business.

[Waylon Wong]

No profits.

[Robert Smith]

I know, Charles, it's always a hard time to be a farmer, but it seems like it's even harder this year.

[Charles Gaskin]

Yeah, I think that's a fairly accurate statement. We've had relatively high row crop prices for the better part of the last decade, but they are at historically low levels right now. You know, fertilizer prices have moved up. The reports from farmers do suggest that, you know, they're not going to be able to sell the crop that they planted last year to generate enough cash. So it is a very difficult environment for the ag economy.

[Waylon Wong]

We wanted to hear how farmers are personally navigating this difficult environment. So we called up one not too far from the Federal reserve building in St. Louis.

[Zarlan Woodard]

My name is Zarlan Woodard. I'm a fourth generation farmer in Tunica, Mississippi. My farm is urban Hills Farm in the Mississippi Delta.

[Robert Smith]

Definitely a blues situation right now in the agricultural part of the Delta. Zarlan told us that a lot of the farms do a winter wheat that they sell around the world through usaid. The same USAID that's been essentially cut by the Trump administration. So there's a lot of extra grain.

[Waylon Wong]

Sitting around and looking forward to this season. Zarlin is worried about the rising cost of fertilizer.

[Zarlan Woodard]

A lot of our fertilizer comes from Canada, and with tariffs that's hitting Canada now, that's going to really drive up the price of fertilizer, which ultimately affects your overall profit margin.

[Robert Smith]

In fact, Zarlin is changing his plans right now based on the tariffs. Rice, the crop, rice apparently takes a lot of fertilizer to grow, so he's switching to soybeans, which requires a lot less fertilizer. But soybean prices are low and they're unstable.

[Waylon Wong]

If Brazil has a big crop, then worldwide prices will drop. And China has just put a 10% tariff on US soybeans in retaliation for our tariffs. Zarlin spends a lot of his time on his phone watching international news and soybean prices.

[Zarlan Woodard]

It'll get to some point to where you have to make that decision to where are you going to continue to farm? Because if you can make a profit, you know, there's no point in continuing.

[Robert Smith]

So the farm was started by your grandfather. What would he say now?

[Zarlan Woodard]

I don't know what his ideas would be right now.

[Robert Smith]

You know, it's tough, but Zarlan isn't dwelling on it. When we left him, he was staring at soy prices on his phone again, trying to figure out if he should lock in a price now or gamble on it going up later.

[Waylon Wong]

There's a lot of people watching the minute by minute changes in the economy right now, including our Beijing award winner, Charles Gaskin of the St. Louis Fed. When we talked to him last Friday, he was doing a million things, getting ready to go on spring break with his family.

[Charles Gaskin]

We are heading to New York to see family and to hit the sights in the city.

[Robert Smith]

You know, when you win a big award like the Beijing, you're supposed to say you're going to Disneyland.

[Charles Gaskin]

I know. Unfortunately, that's not happening for us this time.

[Robert Smith]

New York is a fine consolation prize. Congratulations again to the St. Louis Fed.

[Waylon Wong]

This episode was produced by Julia Richie with engineering by Neal Rauch. It was fact checked by Tyler Jones. Caking Cannon is our show's editor and the indicator is a production of npr.

[NPR]

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