How much is a weather forecast worth? (Update)

Summary

Summary of "How Much Is a Weather Forecast Worth? (Update)" The Indicator from Planet Money, NPR
Release Date: April 14, 2025

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Introduction

In the April 14, 2025 episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Waylon Wong and Adrienne Ma revisit the critical role of weather forecasts in society, especially in the wake of severe weather events that have recently impacted the Midwest and the Southeast. The discussion centers around the ongoing tensions between public agencies and private companies in the realm of meteorology, exacerbated by significant staffing cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA Staffing Cuts and Community Concerns

Waylon Wong opens the discussion by highlighting the devastating impact of recent tornadoes and floods, which have resulted in at least 42 fatalities. He reveals that the federal agency responsible for issuing life-saving weather warnings—NOAA—is experiencing deep staffing cuts under the Trump administration. These reductions include critical roles such as climate researchers, fish biologists, and hurricane hunters who fly into storms to collect vital data (00:26).

Adrienne Ma emphasizes the anxiety within the meteorological community, noting that these cuts may compromise the reliability of weather forecasts and hint at potential moves towards privatizing NOAA. This shift raises concerns about the accessibility and consistency of weather information that millions rely on daily (00:51).

Public vs. Private Sector Dynamics in Weather Forecasting

The episode delves into the intricate relationship between government-provided data and private sector utilization. The hosts explain that while numerous private tech companies offer weather forecasts, they predominantly depend on foundational data from NOAA. Keith Seider, a climate science professor at the College of the Holy Cross and senior policy advisor at the American Meteorological Society, elaborates on the expansive growth of the private weather sector over the past two decades. He points out that the sector now includes everything from small startups to giants like Microsoft and Google (03:57).

Private companies enhance NOAA's data with proprietary models to offer specialized, hyperlocal forecasts tailored to specific industries. For instance, utility companies monitor ice buildup on power lines, airlines reroute flights to avoid turbulence, and concert promoters receive alerts to evacuate venues during impending storms (04:34).

Sources of Friction Between Public and Private Sectors

Keith Seider identifies two main sources of tension:

1. Data Accessibility Ethos: Historically, NOAA has provided weather data freely to the public, a stance that some private companies oppose. Seider notes, “[...] if the agency could provide better data to the public for free, it would do just that” (05:07). This generosity undermines the business models of private firms that monetize specialized forecasts, as free access to sophisticated data could reduce consumer willingness to pay for similar services.

2. Flow of Weather Data: Traditionally, NOAA and NASA funded large-scale weather satellites. However, the advent of private satellite companies has shifted dynamics, with NOAA now purchasing data from these private entities. This creates a paradox where NOAA must balance its role as both a supplier and a customer of weather data. Seider explains, “[...] if they're buying data from a commercial satellite, they can't just turn around and give it all for free" (06:16), limiting the free distribution of data that private companies rely on.

Potential Privatization and Its Implications

The Trump administration's initiatives to downsize NOAA align with the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, which advocates for dismantling NOAA in favor of a privatized, market-based model for weather forecasting. Adrienne Ma raises a critical concern: if weather forecasting becomes predominantly privatized, life-saving information may become accessible only to those who can afford it. This disparity could lead to unequal protection during severe weather events, as smaller or less affluent municipalities might lack the resources to supplement government forecasts with private data (07:42).

Waylon Wong highlights the fundamental economic concept of a public good, which weather forecasts epitomize. Renato Molina, a professor of environmental and resource economics at the University of Miami, underscores that accurate weather forecasts benefit everyone without diminishing their availability. He states, “[...] everyone benefits, right? You consuming a good, you know, like a forecast for a hurricane, does not diminish your ability to consume the same good forecast” (08:31). Molina's research quantifies the societal value of improved forecasts, estimating that enhanced hurricane forecasting has prevented approximately $7 billion in damages and costs since 2009.

Impact of NOAA Cuts on Forecast Reliability and Public Safety

The episode transitions to the immediate effects of NOAA's staffing cuts. Adrienne Ma reports that nearly half of NOAA's field offices face vacancy rates of 20%, which severely hampers their ability to provide timely and accurate forecasts. A poignant example is provided from Louisville, Kentucky, where the National Weather Service had to rely on citizen photos to confirm tornado damage due to insufficient staffing during recent deadly storms (09:03).

Renato Molina emphasizes the tangible benefits of accurate forecasts, such as enabling timely evacuation orders and allowing individuals and communities to take preventive measures like boarding up homes or reinforcing structures. These actions directly contribute to reducing the impact of severe weather events on lives and property (09:13 - 09:23).

Collaborative Models and Future Prospects

Despite the challenges, there are instances of successful collaboration between public agencies and private companies. Mary Glatkin, a former NOAA official and IBM weather business executive, cites the aviation industry as a model for effective cooperation. She describes how forecasters from IBM collaborate with federal forecasters to provide airlines with actionable insights before official forecasts are released, enhancing decision-making processes (06:53).

Conclusion

The episode concludes by reiterating the indispensable role of NOAA in providing public weather data and the potential risks posed by the ongoing staffing cuts and possible privatization. The discussion underscores the importance of maintaining robust, publicly accessible weather forecasting services to ensure equitable protection and preparedness for all communities, regardless of their economic standing.

Notable Quotes

• Adrienne Ma: "This job cuts at NOAA include climate researchers and fish biologists. They also include hurricane hunters, people who fly into storms to collect data." (00:42)

• Keith Seider: "Right now you can on your phone, you can pull up and look at a radar image in real time. In the 1980s or 1990s, we didn't have the cell phones to do that, but as you know, websites became available." (05:07)

• Renato Molina: "The hurricane forecast has generated immense value for society. If you get an evacuation mandate, then you're going to take this seriously, meaning you're going to protect your house." (09:13)

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Produced by Julia Richie with engineering by Kwesi Lee. Fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Kate Concannon. Originally edited by Paddy Hirsch.

Transcript

[NPR]

Npr.

[Waylon Wong]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong.

[Adrienne Ma]

And I'm Adrienne Ma. This spring, tornadoes and floods have battered homes and businesses across the Midwest and the Southeast. As a result, at least 42 people have died.

[Waylon Wong]

The federal agency responsible for issuing life saving warnings and forecasts for severe weather is also getting battered. The Trump administration is making deep cuts to staffing at the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also known as noaa.

[Adrienne Ma]

These job cuts at NOAA include climate researchers and fish biologists. They also include hurricane hunters, people who fly into storms to collect data.

[Waylon Wong]

The moves have put the meteorological community on edge. Some are worried the cuts are jeopardizing reliable forec or are even a precursor to privatizing the agency.

[Adrienne Ma]

And while there are a lot of private tech companies doing weather forecasts, most of these businesses still rely on the government for their underlying data. So today we're going to re air our show from last November about tensions in the meteorology community. These tensions are over how public weather data flows into private companies and at.

[Waylon Wong]

What cost and whether that flow of information will continue.

[Adrienne Ma]

Foreign.

[Liz Ann Sonders]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Charles Schwab with its original podcast on Investing. Each week, hosts Liz Ann Saunders, Schwab's chief investment strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, along with their guests, analyze economic developments and bring context to conversations around stocks, fixed income, the economy and more. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts. Support for NPR and the following message come from Edward Jones what does it mean to be rich? Is it having a million stories to share? Is it having more time to give? Edward Jones Financial Advisors will support what matters to you. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC this message comes from Charles Schwab.

[NPR]

When it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices like full service, wealth management and advice when you need it. You can also invest on your own and trade on thinkorswim. Visit schwab.com to learn more. This message comes from NPR sponsor Intercom. Want to make your customer service dramatically better? With fin, you can. Fin, the leading AI customer service agent, is now available on every help desk finish. FIN can instantly resolve up to 80% of your tickets, which makes your customers happier. And you can get off the customer service rep hiring treadmill Fin by Intercom, named the number one AI agent in G2's winner. Report [e-mail] NPR the federal government has.

[Adrienne Ma]

Officially been in the weather business since 1870. That's when Congress created a National Weather Bureau to collect data and make forecasts. Today, that office is known as the National Weather Service. It's part of an agency called the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, commonly referred to as noaa.

[Waylon Wong]

And the National Weather Service is the main source of weather data, forecasts and warnings in the US Its job is to protect life and property, and that means making weather data universally available to everyone as a public service. So when you see the local weather forecast on the news, for example, there's a good chance that the underlying data comes from the government.

[Adrienne Ma]

And then there are lots of businesses that are taking that data, slicing and dicing it and selling it onward. Keith Seider is a professor of climate science at the College of the Holy Cross, and he's also a senior policy advisor at the American Meteorological Society.

[Keith Seider]

Twenty years ago, there were the few government agencies that worked in weather, and there were a fairly well known list of private sector companies. Any of us could sit down with a piece of paper and write down the 20 main companies. And now the private sector is vast, and it goes everything from very, very tiny one or person companies up to companies like Microsoft and Google.

[Waylon Wong]

Private companies like these take data from NOAA and the National Weather Service. They put their own spin on it, say, by applying proprietary computer models. They can then sell specialized data and hyperlocal forecasts to customers that are highly dependent on the weather.

[Adrienne Ma]

Yeah. For example, think of a utility company that needs to monitor ice buildup on power lines during a winter storm. Or an airline that wants to reroute a flight to avoid turbulence. Or even a concert promoter that gets an alert to evacuate a stadium during a storm.

[Waylon Wong]

Keith says there's been a couple of sources of friction between the government and these private weather companies in the last few decades. One source of friction has to do with the overall ethos of the National Weather Service. Keith says if the agency could provide better data to the public for free, it would do just that.

[Keith Seider]

Right now you can on your phone, you can pull up and look at a radar image in real time. In the 1980s or 1990s, we didn't have the cell phones to do that, but as you know, websites became available. The National Weather Service said, well, we can actually make this data available to everybody.

[Waylon Wong]

But Keith says this stance didn't sit well with some private companies. You know, the ones making a living from selling specialized forecasts. If customers could get sophisticated data from the government for, maybe they wouldn't want to pay for that kind of information. Anymore.

[Adrienne Ma]

So that is one source of tension in the industry. Another one, Keith says has to do with the flow of weather data. Remember when we said the government is a foundational data source? That's because historically NOAA and NASA paid for the big weather satellites that collect that information.

[Waylon Wong]

Well, these days, Keith says, private companies are launching their own satellites and selling the data. And NOAA and the National Weather Service have become customers. In some cases, Keith says the are buying data from these private companies because it's cheaper than operating those satellites themselves.

[Keith Seider]

But then you've got a little bit of attention because the government typically provides all of the data it has for free. And if they're buying data from a commercial satellite, they can't just turn around and give it all for free, or else that commercial company only has one customer, which is noaa.

[Adrienne Ma]

The government's new role as both a supplier and a customer of weather data has blurred the lines between public agencies and private sector businesses. But there are examples of the two sides working together. Mary Glatkin has been an official at NOAA and an executive in IBM's weather business. She says the aviation industry could be a model.

[Mary Glatkin]

If we know there's a weather event happening at an airport, what you'd really like to be doing is advising the airline what flights to cancel, which ones to delay. When I was at IBM, we would have forecasters that would be on calls with federal forecasters a couple times a day before an official forecast came out. So that works fairly well.

[Waylon Wong]

Over the years, conservative policymakers have argued for limiting the government's role in weather forecasting. Now the Trump administration appears interested in downsizing some of NOAA's functions. Its early moves mirror some of the goals outlined in Project 2025. This is the conservative policy blueprint from the Heritage foundation think tank. That document call dismantling noaa, but moving.

[Adrienne Ma]

To a more privatized or market based model for weather forecasts. It raises questions about whether potentially life saving information would only be available to people with resources.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, like some municipalities supplement government forecasts with information from private companies that they pay for. But then it's like, what about towns that can't afford to do that?

[Adrienne Ma]

This is a kind of a wild thing to think about when it comes to potentially life saving information. Right. Like one town has different information than another.

[Waylon Wong]

Exactly. And in economics we talk about this thing called a public good. A public good is something that can be used simultaneously by multiple people without diminishing, and it's something that's available to everyone.

[Adrienne Ma]

Renato Molina is a professor of environmental and resource economics at the University of Miami. He says an accurate weather forecast definitely meets the criteria for a public good.

[Renato Molina]

Because, I mean, if we follow the definition, everyone benefits, right? You consuming a good, you know, like, forecast for a hurricane for, for example. Right. Does not diminish, you know, like my ability to consume the same good forecast. And we all benefit. We're all better off.

[Waylon Wong]

And this benefit isn't just abstract for Renato. He and a colleague crunched the numbers around this federal program that's aimed at improving hurricane forecasts. They estimate that it led to $7 billion in avoided damages and costs since 2009.

[Adrienne Ma]

That's because when weather forecasts are more accurate, local governments can request federal money for protective measures in advance of a hurricane. They can also issue timely evacuation mandates.

[Renato Molina]

The hurricane forecast has generated immense value for society. If you get an evacuation mandate, then you're going to take this seriously, meaning you're going to protect your house.

[Adrienne Ma]

Right?

[Renato Molina]

You're going to pull down the shutters or board your house if you might be exposed to some flooding that might reduce the overall damages that you're exposed to.

[Waylon Wong]

If that happens, staffing cuts to the National Weather Service may already be threatening timely forecasts for Americans. Nearly half of the agency's field offices have 20% vacancy rates.

[Adrienne Ma]

Earlier this month, as deadly tornadoes blew across the Midwest and South, the National Weather Service office in Louisville, Kentucky said it did not have enough people to confirm twisters, and in fact, the office said they had to rely on citizen photos to survey damage in the area.

[Waylon Wong]

This episode was produced by Julia Richie with engineering by Kwesi Lee. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Kate Concannon. It was originally edited by Paddy Hirsch. The indicator is a production of npr.

[NPR]

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