How states are scooping up federal workers

Summary

Podcast Summary: "How States Are Scooping Up Federal Workers"

Introduction

In the April 4, 2025 episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosted by Adrienne Ma, Waylon Wong, and Darren Woods from NPR, the discussion delves into the recent trends in the U.S. labor market, focusing on the movement of federal workers to state and local governments amidst federal job cuts. The episode also explores the broader implications of the latest jobs report and potential economic shifts due to new federal tariffs.

Overview of March Jobs Report

The episode begins with an analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) March jobs report. Adrienne Ma highlights that the economy added 228,000 jobs in March, surpassing initial expectations, despite the unemployment rate edging up slightly to 4.2%:

Adrienne Ma [02:42]: "The 228,000 jobs added in March is far stronger than was predicted. So a strong month for hiring."

Contributing factors to this robust job growth include the easing of harsh winter weather, which previously hindered employment, and the return of workers following strikes in sectors such as healthcare and grocery retail. Adrienne notes,

Adrienne Ma [02:42]: "Nurses and grocery store workers who had been on strike went back to work."

However, the hosts caution that these numbers may not tell the whole story. Darren Woods points out that hiring figures from January and February were revised downward by 50,000 jobs, suggesting that the March surge might not fully represent sustained economic strength:

Darren Woods [03:36]: "You always have to watch those revisions."

Analysis of Federal Job Cuts

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the Trump administration's recent reduction of federal employees. Darren Woods estimates that at least 125,000 federal workers have been laid off or bought out, though the official reduction in federal jobs appears minimal due to procedural delays and deferred resignations:

Darren Woods [04:06]: "The Trump administration has laid off or bought out at least 125,000 federal workers."

The apparent discrepancy in job cuts is attributed to legal challenges, such as judges freezing terminations, and workers accepting buyouts but remaining on the payroll for a transitional period:

Darren Woods [04:51]: "The number of federal jobs reduced by only 4,000. And that's for a couple of reasons... people might have accepted a buyout, but they might still be on the payroll for a few months."

States and Local Governments Hiring Federal Workers

Despite the federal workforce reductions, state and local governments are actively recruiting these displaced workers. Adrienne Ma and Darren Woods discuss how various states, including Wisconsin, are creating dedicated platforms to attract former federal employees:

Darren Woods [05:47]: "The webpage is headed 'Wisconsin wants you.'"

For instance, Wisconsin's targeted efforts to hire federal workers are seen as a direct response to the federal downsizing. Similarly, cities like Kansas City, Missouri, and Fulton County, Georgia, are also onboarding former federal employees to fill roles in education administration, energy policy, and public health:

Adrienne Ma [06:31]: "So it really seems like the federal government's loss of workers is potentially a gain for cities and states."

Waylon Wong shares a personal anecdote about successfully leveraging LinkedIn to secure a state job offer, underscoring the effectiveness of such strategies:

Waylon Wong [05:29]: "I've been one of those people."

Involuntary Part-Time Workers and Labor Market Indicators

Another critical topic addressed is the rise in involuntary part-time workers, a key indicator of labor market health. Waylon Wong introduces the figure of 4.8 million Americans working part-time due to economic reasons, an increase from the previous year:

Waylon Wong [06:33]: "My indicator is 4.8 million. This is the number of people who are involuntarily working part-time jobs."

Adrienne Ma adds that while this number is relatively small in the broader labor market, its upward trend suggests a softening labor market:

Adrienne Ma [07:24]: "This March figure is a little lower than February. However, it is higher than a year ago when it was around 4.3 million."

Darren Woods explains that businesses under economic strain, possibly from increased tariffs, might reduce worker hours before resorting to layoffs, making this trend a potential warning sign:

Darren Woods [07:34]: "Hypothetically, a business that's under strain will often cut hours for workers before resorting to layoffs."

Moreover, Adrienne Ma connects this trend to broader unemployment metrics, highlighting that the U6 unemployment rate, which includes involuntary part-time workers, is also rising:

Waylon Wong [08:02]: "U6 includes these involuntary part-time workers plus some other categories. And the U6 rate is also higher than a year ago."

Future Outlook and Tariffs Impact

Looking ahead, the hosts anticipate that the Trump administration's new tariffs could dampen future hiring. Adrienne Ma suggests that U.S. companies reliant on imported goods may face increased costs, leading to hiring hesitancy:

Adrienne Ma [03:36]: "Businesses are going to be hit with this new cost... they might be hesitant to hire."

They plan to explore this further in the next episode by consulting business owners affected by the tariffs, providing listeners with firsthand insights into the economic repercussions.

Conclusions and Final Insights

The episode concludes by emphasizing the importance of monitoring these labor market indicators. The shift of federal workers to state and local governments presents both challenges and opportunities, while the rise in involuntary part-time employment signals underlying economic tensions. The potential impact of new tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty, underscoring the need for vigilance in assessing the U.S. economic landscape.

Adrienne Ma [08:02]: "This is definitely an indicator to watch."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Adrienne Ma [02:42]: "The 228,000 jobs added in March is far stronger than was predicted. So a strong month for hiring."
• Darren Woods [04:06]: "The Trump administration has laid off or bought out at least 125,000 federal workers."
• Waylon Wong [06:33]: "My indicator is 4.8 million. This is the number of people who are involuntarily working part-time jobs."
• Adrienne Ma [07:24]: "This March figure is a little lower than February. However, it is higher than a year ago when it was around 4.3 million."
• Adrienne Ma [08:02]: "This is definitely an indicator to watch."

Final Thoughts

For listeners seeking to understand the shifting dynamics of the U.S. labor market, this episode of The Indicator from Planet Money provides a comprehensive analysis of recent job trends, federal workforce reductions, and the broader economic implications of policy changes. The inclusion of real-time data, expert insights, and relatable anecdotes makes the discussion both informative and engaging, offering valuable perspectives for anyone interested in the current state and future of the American economy.

Transcript

[Adrienne Ma]

Npr. This is the indicator for Planet Money. I'm Adrienne Ma.

[Waylon Wong]

I'm Waylon Wong.

[Darren Woods]

And I'm Darren Woods. What a week, guys.

[Waylon Wong]

I'm exhausted.

[Darren Woods]

Now we have to at least acknowledge the end of the global trading order as we once knew it. Woo.

[Waylon Wong]

Rip Skull emoji.

[Adrienne Ma]

We are of course talking about the huge announcement from the Trump administration this week, a cornucopia of new tariffs, which we are going to dig into a lot more next week.

[Waylon Wong]

But for now, we have another important set of numbers out today that gives us a snapshot of how the American worker is doing. You all know this hallowed ritual. We call it jobs Friday.

[Adrienne Ma]

That's right. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report. It shows the unemployment rate in March edged up to 4.2% and the economy added 228,000 jobs. On the surface, this is a strong jobs number. But after the break, we'll dig into why the good times may not last.

[Darren Woods]

I'll dive into who's actually seeing an opportunity with all the federal job cuts.

[Waylon Wong]

And now look at why part time workers might be signaling broader economic trouble ahead.

[Adrienne Ma]

Hey, it's hey, Martinez. A lot of short daily news podcasts focus on one story, but sometimes you need for up first on NPR, we bring you the three top world headlines every single day in under 15 minutes. Because no one story can capture all that's happening in it. The moon look on any given morning. So listen to the upfirst podcast from npr.

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[Adrienne Ma]

Starting off our look at this month's jobs report, I gotta say again that the 228,000 jobs added in March is far stronger than was predicted. So a strong month for hiring. Part of what's going on here is that the harsh winter weather that we saw in January and February, it eased up last month so more people were able to get back on the job. Also, nurses and grocery store workers who had been on strike went back to work.

[Waylon Wong]

I didn't realize we had a grocery strike.

[Adrienne Ma]

That's right. We had about 10,000 workers at a chain called King Supers. Several thousand nurses went back on the job, so that was helping burnish the job numbers. On the other hand, the BLS also said that hiring in January and February was about 50,000 less jobs than they had initially estimated. So that does take some of the shine off March's hiring spree.

[Darren Woods]

You always have to watch those revisions.

[Adrienne Ma]

That's right. And frankly, the jobs numbers we see next month could take a hit because businesses are going to be reckoning with Trump's new round of across the board tariffs. So US Companies that import parts or products from other countries are going to be hit with this new cost. And as they figure out how it's going to affect their business, they might be hesitant to hire. So Darian, what about you? What's jumping out to you for this month's jobs report?

[Darren Woods]

So this is the hotly anticipated jobs report where everyone's anticipating how those federal worker cuts will really show up. And today I want to home in on those workers who are being scooped up by states and local governments. So our best estimate is that the Trump administration has laid off or bought out at least 125,000 federal workers.

[Waylon Wong]

And then there's the ripple effects.

[Adrienne Ma]

Right.

[Waylon Wong]

So you have government consulting companies that have also downsized.

[Darren Woods]

And the bottom line is we have a lot of education administrators or energy policy experts or public health practitioners out of work.

[Adrienne Ma]

So. So we are talking about thousands of people out of the job. Right. But what's interesting is it doesn't seem like there is a big plunge in the federal jobs numbers at today.

[Darren Woods]

Yeah, the number of federal jobs reduced by only 4,000. And that's for a couple of reasons. First, there's been all the chaos of judges freezing and then unfreezing a lot of the terminations.

[Adrienne Ma]

Right.

[Darren Woods]

Second, people might have accepted a buyout, but they might still be on the payroll for a few months.

[Waylon Wong]

It was like a deferred resignation offer.

[Darren Woods]

Exactly. So the jobs surveys that would have been conducted from the middle of March wouldn't have captured everybody who hasn't stopped receiving their checks.

[Adrienne Ma]

Okay, so maybe like a better measure would just be counting all the people who have that new open to work badge on their LinkedIn profiles.

[Waylon Wong]

I've been one of those people.

[Darren Woods]

Yeah.

[Waylon Wong]

Uh huh.

[Darren Woods]

Did it work?

[Waylon Wong]

It did. I got contacted by an NPR recruiter.

[Darren Woods]

Okay.

[Adrienne Ma]

Testimony.

[Darren Woods]

And you know, states and local governments want those open to work former federal employees.

[Adrienne Ma]

They really want to make an impact with their profession.

[Darren Woods]

Last week, the Governor of Wisconsin announced a webpage specifically for federal workers where they can find jobs in the state of Wisconsin.

[Adrienne Ma]

I work, I work, I work, I work, I work, I work for the state, for the state of Wisconsin.

[Darren Woods]

The webpage is headed Wisconsin wants you.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, so welcoming.

[Adrienne Ma]

So Wisconsin is making a pretty hard pitch to come here, work here.

[Darren Woods]

Yeah. And several other states are also actively hiring federal workers from Hawaii to Pennsylvania. Also at the local level too, in places like Kansas City, Missouri and Fulton County, Georgia.

[Adrienne Ma]

So it really seems like the federal government's loss of workers is potentially a gain for cities and states.

[Darren Woods]

Yeah. And Waylon, what do you have?

[Waylon Wong]

My indicator is 4.8 million. This is the number of people who are involuntarily working part time jobs. The BLS describes this category, part time for economic reasons.

[Darren Woods]

So maybe they wanted a full time job, but they could only get a part time one.

[Adrienne Ma]

Or their employer has cut their hours.

[Waylon Wong]

Exactly. These are all examples of economic reasons that the BLS gives. Other ones are unfavorable business conditions or a seasonal decline in demand for workers. So in March, there were 4.8 million people in this situation. Now, this is a small share of the total number of workers in the US economy, but an increase in this number is considered a sign of a softening labor market. This March figure is a little lower than February. However, it is higher than a year ago when it was around 4.3 million.

[Darren Woods]

Right, and this is one of the many warning lights that could signal danger for the economy because a business that's.

[Adrienne Ma]

Under strain from, I don't know, an increase in tariffs.

[Darren Woods]

Hypothetically, a business that's under strain will often cut hours for workers before resorting to layoffs.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, and to give you an idea of the longer trend line here, there was a huge spike in this number of involuntary partners workers at the start of the pandemic and then dropped below pre pandemic levels. But it's been mostly edging higher since the start of the year. We'll have to keep tracking it to see whether it falls again next month or resumes its climb.

[Adrienne Ma]

Okay, so this is. This is definitely an indicator to watch.

[Waylon Wong]

Yes. And I also wanted to point out that this number of involuntary part time workers feeds into an unemployment rate called U6. You might remember that the BLS calculates a bunch of unemployment rates besides the headline one. U6 includes these involuntary part time workers plus some other categories. And the U6 rate is also higher than a year ago.

[Darren Woods]

Not a good sign.

[Waylon Wong]

Never.

[Adrienne Ma]

By the way, on Monday, we are going to dig into the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs. We'll do that by checking in with some business owners that have been on the show before and see how they are feeling.

[Waylon Wong]

The news this episode was produced by Julia Ritchie with engineering by Robert Rodriguez and Sina Lofredo. It was fact checked by Sarah Juarez. Keegan Cannon is the show's editor, and the indicator is a production of npr.

[Rachel Martin]

Wait, wait, don't tell me. Fresh Air up first, NPR News. Now Planet Money TED Radio Hour Throughline the NPR Politics podcast Code Switch Embedded books we love Wild Card are just some of the podcasts you can enjoy. Sponsor free with NPR. Get all sorts of perks across more than 20 podcasts with the bundle option. Learn more at plus.NPR.org on this week's.

[Adrienne Ma]

Episode of Wildcard, actress Elizabeth Olsen reflects on being a marvel superstar.

[Waylon Wong]

I think I haven't always successfully made choices in my work that are aligned with my personal taste, and that is something I feel like I'm still trying to prove.

[Adrienne Ma]

I'm Rachel Martin. Join us for NPR's Wildcard podcast, the show where cards control the conversation.