How's ... everybody doing?

Summary

Episode Summary: "How’s … Everybody Doing?"

Podcast: The Indicator from Planet Money
Host: Darren Woods
Release Date: March 25, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, host Darren Woods delves into the current economic landscape by moving beyond traditional economic indicators to capture the nuanced sentiments and experiences of everyday Americans. Faced with economic uncertainty, Woods and his team conducted informal polling across various regions to assemble an "economic audio photo album" that reflects how individuals perceive and react to the present state of the economy.

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Economic Uncertainty and Public Sentiment

Woods opens the discussion by highlighting the ambiguity surrounding the economic future, citing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent admission of uncertainty:

“We're at this uncertain moment for the economy and even Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week, we're going to have to see how things actually work out.” [00:11]

To grasp the public’s perspective, the team conducted interviews from diverse locations, including street parties in the South, a bookstore in LA, and a boardroom in Denver. This approach revealed a common thread of anxiety and caution among Americans regarding the economy.

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Inflation and Cost of Living

A significant theme emerging from the conversations was the frustration over high prices and the rising cost of living. Despite official inflation rates cooling to 2.8%, close to the Federal Reserve’s target, people's perceptions remain anchored to past inflation spikes:

“Everything is so expensive. Because the cost of living doesn't meet up with the economy.” [03:21]

This disconnect between actual inflation and public perception is driving behavior changes, with individuals prioritizing saving over spending. For instance, Isis Benson from Brooklyn shares her disciplined approach to saving:

“I'm in a good headspace because I'm living, like, well below my means right now.” [05:13]

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Shifts in Spending and Business Impacts

As Americans tighten their budgets, businesses across various sectors are experiencing mixed impacts. While some, like Rob Carpenter’s home cleaning business in Colorado, face significant downturns (“down probably 30% on the year”), others maintain optimism. Daniel Harberger of Woof, a company producing dog treat-dispensing toys, remains confident in his business despite challenges posed by tariffs:

“The tariffs making China costlier have unexpected side effects... We are not only taking away manufacturing markets, but we're also taking away a really valuable tool for innovation.” [06:45]

Harberger discusses his strategy to mitigate tariff impacts by diversifying manufacturing locations and adjusting pricing for new products.

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Investment Decisions Amid Market Volatility

Economic turbulence has influenced personal investment strategies. Nathan Gabbard, a lawyer and bookstore owner in LA, opted to liquidate his investments following a stock market decline:

“I liquidate everything from stocks and crypto probably a month ago... I try to lean in when everyone else is scared.” [07:30]

Conversely, individuals like Barb Bruhis in Denver view market downturns as buying opportunities, particularly in real estate:

“I am in the midst of buying a house right now, and I feel like I got a really good deal on it.” [08:15]

However, not all responses are optimistic. Monique Wallace from Brooklyn expresses hesitation about future investments due to economic uncertainties:

“I just want, you know, make sure I save a little bit more money.” [08:45]

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Labor Market Insights

Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.1%, Woods uncovers underlying tensions within the labor market. While many individuals feel secure in their jobs, others face instability and underemployment. Erin Fredericks from Brooklyn, recently unemployed, highlights the challenges:

“So right now, not too great.” [09:10]

Additionally, some workers are juggling multiple jobs and feeling underpaid, as illustrated by Priya Skelly:

“I have three jobs, feeling underpaid for the most part and looking to make some more money than I usually have been.” [09:22]

These insights reveal that while the headline unemployment figures appear stable, many Americans are grappling with job insecurity and insufficient income.

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Final Reflections: Public Perceptions of the Economy

To encapsulate the public’s view of the economy, Woods solicited single-word summaries from interviewees. The responses ranged from "Anxious" and "Uncertain" to "Blessed" and "Crazy," reflecting a spectrum of emotions:

“Anxious. Uncertain. Cautious. Think it's working. Unfair.” [10:16]
“Terrible. Questionable. Precarious. Difficult. Crazy.” [10:37]

This collection of sentiments underscores the complex and often contradictory feelings Americans hold about the current economic situation.

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Conclusion

The episode "How’s … Everybody Doing?" presents a multifaceted portrait of the American economy by blending traditional economic analysis with personal narratives. While official indicators like inflation and unemployment rates suggest stability, individual experiences reveal pockets of anxiety, cautious optimism, and resilience. Woods effectively captures this dichotomy, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of how economic forces are shaping lives across the nation.

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Production Credits:
Produced by Julia Ritchie, Cooper Katz McKim, Angel Carreras, and Lily Quiros. Engineered by Robert Rodriguez and Kwesi Lee. Fact-checked by Sarah Juarez. Edited by Cake and Cannon. The Indicator is a production of NPR.

Transcript

[NPR Announcer]

Npr.

[Darren Woods]

This is the Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Darren Woods. We're at this uncertain moment for the economy and even Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week, we're going to have to see how things actually work out. In other words, when looking at the near future, even, even he doesn't know where things are headed. Here at the Indicator, we of course have been scrutinising all the economic numbers, but these indicators don't always capture the depth of how people are thinking and reacting. So from coast to coast, we did something a little different. For our show today, we undertook some unscientific polling by interviewing as many people as we could. We wanted to hear the human voices describing how today's economy feels unsettled, getting better. Evolving from street parties in the south to an LA bookstore to a boardroom in Denver, today we listen for financial signals. It's an audio photo album of economic snapshots from this moment.

[NPR Announcer]

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[Darren Woods]

So to piece together this kind of economic audio photo album, we needed to go out into the world. Oh sorry, are you in the middle of a phone call.

[NPR Announcer]

No, no, I'll finish.

[Darren Woods]

Our producers live all over the country, so we fanned out. Denver, D.C. new York, Savannah, and LA.

[NPR Announcer]

You run the finances at your house?

[Darren Woods]

Yeah, I do. We stopped people on the street. Yeah, I live right over there in the high rises.

[NPR Announcer]

Nice.

[Darren Woods]

We also asked you indicator listeners to send in voice memos. This is Philip Gonzalez from Grand Prairie, Texas. And we zoomed into offices from east to west.

[NPR Announcer]

Hi. Good to see you.

[Darren Woods]

We learned about people's decisions to spend or save. We dug into business sales, the stock market, and the jobs market. But what we heard again and again was people starting off talking about high prices. Everything is going up instead of being level so, so high every week. It's, like, ridiculous. Everything's so expensive. Because the cost of living doesn't meet up with the economy. A lot of those prices are from past inflation. Over the last few years, prices went up and never came down. Now inflation, as it actually stands right now is fairly low. It increased only 2.8% from a year ago. Inflation is getting really close to where the Federal Reserve wants it, at 2%. That said, when you look at surveys of how much people are expecting prices to rise in the future, those have jumped really sharply since January. And it's partly because of those fears for the future that have people adjusting their spending and savings decisions from North Carolina to the Mountain West. I've just been starting to think about, like, where my money goes. I don't own a car because cars are expensive. We're choosing to, you know, not go on the big trips to planned a year ago. So definitely, definitely spending less right now. So far this year, Americans are now saving a little more, which tends to happen when they're feeling nervous about the future. Savings are close to five bucks for every hundred dollars in income. And that's a jump from the end of last year. I learned more about this by meeting Isis Benson on the streets of Brooklyn. I'm in a good headspace because I'm living, like, well below my means right now. ISIS works in sales for hiring Platform Greenhouse software.

[NPR Announcer]

I'm saving, like, maybe anywhere between, like.

[Darren Woods]

Four and six hundred dollars a month. I'm aggressively saving. All that saving means less spending, and many businesses are feeling the hit. Rob Carpenter runs a home cleaning business in Colorado. You know, we're down probably 30% on the year. Rob says this pullback really varies by where a customer sits on the income ladder. We're, interestingly, not seeing much pricing pressure with the high household net incomes, but we do really, we see a lot of pain in that kind of upper middle class market. But the business story isn't all doom and gloom. Seven out of 10 small business owners surveyed by Goldman Sachs in February felt optimistic about 2025. Daniel Harberger's company, Woof, is known for its toys that dispense dog treats. It's looking very, very strong. But that's not to say that there aren't challenges and new stresses that have been introduced by all of the macro issues that are popping up. The big one, tariffs, especially on China, which he used to rely on. Daniel's now getting his dog devices made in Vietnam, Colombia and the US and he is still getting some supply from China, too. As many eggs in as many baskets as possible. He says the tariffs making China costlier have unexpected side effects. When he was just getting started, he couldn't afford to do small prototype batches of his dog feeder toys in the US but he could in China. We are not only taking away manufacturing markets, but we're also taking away a really valuable tool for innovation. Daniel says he's going to take the tariff hit on existing products, but raise prices for new ones. And so, given increased tariffs, along with other sweeping actions from the Trump administration, we wanted to know how those were affecting people's investment decisions. I did liquidate everything from stocks and crypto probably a month ago. Nathan Gabbard is a lawyer and bookstore owner in LA, and he's feeling good about selling. Before the roughly 10% drop in the stock market from its peak in February, I was just like, I feel like I want that, that as cash instead of sitting in the market. Now, one person's loss can be another person's buying opportunity. I try to lean in when everyone else is scared. That's Barb Bruhis in Denver. He's been buying up shares in property. I am in the midst of buying a house right now, and I feel like I got a really good deal on it. Barr's attitude stands in pretty stark contrast to Monique Wallace in Brooklyn. I'm really worried about it because of the. Monique works in support at Amazon, and she says the declining stock market and lackluster job opportunities have already changed her decisions. I was planning to go overseas a long time ago. I was like, oh, I'll just quit Amazon and I'll go, you know, work off the book somewhere in France. But like, now I'm kind of like leaning back because I don't know how it's going to be in a year or so. So I just want, you know, make sure I save a little bit more money. Which brings us to our final piece of our economic puzzle, the labour market. We asked people about their work. Yeah, I'm happy with my job. I'm a general manager for a software company. I feel pretty lucky. I'm lucky. I'm fine. I'm an accountant. I just got a job offer. I feel pretty job secure. So, from our straw polling, at least, people are feeling pretty good about their jobs, which does check out in the national numbers. The unemployment rate is only 4.1%. But that lowish unemployment rate obscures some labour market pains. Job openings aren't what they used to be. Erin Fredericks in Brooklyn knows this firsthand. I was previously working within consulting and within the healthcare space, so recently unemployed as of October of last year. So right now, not too great. We also heard from people who are working part time but would prefer to work full time. People like Priya Skelly, especially.

[NPR Announcer]

Why? I have three jobs, feeling underpaid for the most part and looking to make some more money than I usually have been.

[Darren Woods]

This audio photo album has some pretty pictures and some ugly scenes. And what we learned was kind of a paradox. We learnt that people are frustrated at high prices and they're tightening their purse strings and that is harming some businesses. But aside from policy turbulence, many companies feel good about their own prospects this year. The stock market is down, but not extraordinarily so. Unemployment is low, but hiring isn't booming. So overall, what do we make of this? We asked the people we spoke with to summarise the economy in one phrase. Anxious. Uncertain. Cautious. Think it's working. Unfair.

[NPR Announcer]

Turbulent. Bad.

[Darren Woods]

Yeah, bad.

[NPR Announcer]

Heartbreaking.

[Darren Woods]

Trauma. Dreadful. Surprising.

[NPR Announcer]

Unhappy.

[Darren Woods]

Blessed. Sucks.

[NPR Announcer]

Economic. Hardship. Oh, that's two words.

[Darren Woods]

That's fine. Absolutely not. Good. Terrible. Questionable.

[NPR Announcer]

Precarious.

[Darren Woods]

Difficult. Crazy. Yeah, crazy. This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie, Cooper Katz McKim, Angel Carreras and Lily Quiros. It was engineered by Robert Rodriguez and Kwesi Lee. It was fact checked by Sarah Juarez. Cake and Cannon edits the show and the indicator is a production of NPR.

[NPR Announcer]

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