The Indicator from Planet Money: "Just how bad are these job numbers?"

Date: February 6, 2026
Hosts: Darren Woods and Waylon Wong
Guest: Guy Berger (Burning Glass Institute)
Featured Story: Alessandro Negrete

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the unexpectedly low January jobs numbers amidst a partial government shutdown and explores why weaker job growth doesn't necessarily spell disaster for the U.S. economy. Through expert commentary and the personal journey of Alessandro Negrete, the hosts examine how population trends—especially immigration and demographic shifts—are transforming what counts as a "good" jobs report, and why the U.S. labor market's break-even point is changing.

Key Points & Insights

1. Jobs Numbers in Limbo: Interpreting the Data

• Context: The Bureau of Labor Statistics couldn't release official jobs data due to the government shutdown.
• Alternative Estimates:
  • Chicago Fed places U.S. unemployment at 4.4%, "essentially unchanged from December." (Darren Woods, 00:27)
  • Private sector estimates:
    • Revelio Labs: Loss of 13,000 jobs
    • ADP: Gain of 22,000 jobs
• The contrast: These numbers are far smaller than the six-figure monthly changes seen a year ago.

2. What Makes a 'Good' Jobs Number Now?

• Shift in Standards:
  • "A good jobs number is not what it used to be. The standard has fallen a lot." (Guy Berger, 02:19)
• Understanding Unemployment Rate Calculations:
  • Unemployment rate = Number of jobless people actively looking ÷ Total labor force
  • Slower labor force growth means fewer new jobs are needed to maintain the same unemployment rate.
  • "You might need very little, you might not need it. You might be able to lose jobs and still keep the unemployment rate steady." (Guy Berger, 02:48)
• Global Comparison:
  • The U.S. is beginning to resemble aging countries like Japan or parts of Southern Europe.
• Break-even Jobs Number:
  • Previously: 100,000–200,000 new jobs/month
  • Now: “In the low tens of thousands.” (Guy Berger, 03:15)
  • Tied to low immigration, population stagnation, and fewer people entering the workforce.

3. Population Trends Affecting Labor Data

• Americans saw the lowest population increase since the pandemic. Main factors:
  • Reduced immigration
  • Higher outflows (people leaving or being deported)
• A growing phenomenon: forced and voluntary departures of undocumented residents.
• "We know that the number of undocumented people leaving the US voluntarily is significant and growing." (Waylon Wong, 03:56)

4. Personal Story: Alessandro Negrete

• Background:
  • Came to the U.S. as an infant, grew up undocumented, did not initially know his legal status.
• Turning Point:
  • Realized limitations when offered a scholarship to UC Berkeley, but couldn't accept due to lack of a Social Security number.
  • “You don’t have a Social Security. ... it means you’re legal here... we don’t belong here.” (Alessandro Negrete, 04:55)
• Work and Education:
  • Community college, then Cal State LA for a bachelor's in sociology.
  • Early career: social justice organizations, fundraising, strategy.
• Impact of Politics:
  • Immigration crackdowns under first Trump administration heightened personal and professional risk.
  • “The broader immigrant community is under attack. Like all these things are just forms of weaponized mental anguish.” (Alessandro Negrete, 07:07)
• Recent Decisions:
  • Stayed for family (mother had cancer); left for Mexico once she received residency and recovered.
  • Joined "millions of others leaving the U.S." in 2025.
• Life After Departure:
  • Settled with his dog in Guadalajara, Mexico, working to build new community and stability.
  • “I've created a sense of normalcy and community.” (Alessandro Negrete, 07:39)
• Emotional Notes:
  • Misses aspects of LA—especially bagels:
    • “There are no bagels in Guadalajara except in Costco and they're not that great.” (Alessandro Negrete, 09:02)

5. Big Picture: Economic Implications

• Human Capital Loss:
  • The U.S. is losing experienced, educated workers like Alessandro, potentially impacting innovation and productivity.
  • “All that education and work experience that Alessandro gained over four decades is now out of the country.” (Waylon Wong, 08:07)
• Demographic Debate:
  • Is a larger population always better for the economy? More people can mean more innovation, but also strains on infrastructure.
• Changing Labor Market Metrics:
  • The threshold for a “good” jobs report is fundamentally shifting with these population dynamics.
• Cultural Touchstones:
  • The show suggests retiring the “air horn” segment, reflecting the new ambiguity around jobs reports.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "A good jobs number is not what it used to be. The standard has fallen a lot."
  — Guy Berger, 02:19

• “You might be able to lose jobs and still keep the unemployment rate steady.”
  — Guy Berger, 02:48

• "After that news from my mom that I was just like, you know what, I'm doing it."
  — Alessandro Negrete, 07:25

• "The broader immigrant community is under attack. Like all these things are just forms of weaponized mental anguish."
  — Alessandro Negrete, 07:07

• “I've created a sense of normalcy and community.”
  — Alessandro Negrete, 07:39

• Bagel nostalgia:
  — “There are no bagels in Guadalajara except in Costco and they're not that great.”
  — Alessandro Negrete, 09:02

• Air horn retirement salute:
  — "Should we do like a 21 air horn salute to commemorate?"
  — Waylon Wong, 09:38

Important Timestamps

• 00:27: Jobs numbers and unemployment rate estimates
• 02:08: Introduction of Guy Berger and discussion of changing labor force dynamics
• 03:15: Explanation of break-even jobs number
• 04:21: Alessandro Negrete shares his experience as an undocumented student
• 06:39: Impact of immigration policy changes on Alessandro and his decision to leave
• 07:25: Alessandro decides to move to Mexico
• 09:02: Bagel nostalgia and cultural adjustment

Episode Tone

The episode balances explanatory clarity and data-driven insight with empathy and personal storytelling. The hosts’ tone is conversational, occasionally light-hearted (air horn jokes, bagel banter), but the subject matter is approached with seriousness and respect, especially in Alessandro’s narrative.

Summary

"Just how bad are these job numbers?" reveals that traditional economic metrics—like monthly job gains—are being reshaped by demographic stagnation, declining immigration, and the voluntary or forced departure of millions of workers. The result: the meaning of a “good” jobs number is fundamentally shifting. Through both expert analysis and compelling first-person experience, the episode makes the economic headwinds deeply personal, highlighting the lived reality behind the numbers.