Should NATO be pay-to-protect?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Indicator from Planet Money

Episode: Should NATO be pay-to-protect?

Date: May 13, 2026
Hosts: Adrienne Ma and Waylon Wong
Guest Experts:

• Heather Cox Richardson (Historian)
• Nikki Akane (Fellow, NATO Defense College—speaking in personal capacity)

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Overview

This episode examines the shifting dynamics within the NATO alliance—specifically, whether it should function as a pay-to-protect arrangement or maintain its longstanding principles of collective security. Prompted by recent U.S. troop withdrawals from Germany and ongoing criticisms from President Trump about European allies not "paying their fair share," the hosts and guests discuss the origins of NATO, what each member contributes, and the potential repercussions—politically and economically—of viewing security as a transactional service rather than a mutual commitment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Context: The Foundations of NATO

• Post–World War II Purpose:

  • Heather Cox Richardson: The founders wanted to ensure global peace after two devastating wars. They were willing to "put everything on the line to make sure it never happened again" [02:53].

• Three Pillars of the Postwar Order:

  • Free Trade via Open Seas: Guaranteeing safe flow of goods and people [03:07].
  • International Cooperation: Cultural and value exchange among nations [03:28].
  • Collective Security: Principle that an attack on one is an attack on all, formalized in NATO's Article 5 [03:37].

• Memorable Quote:

  • “This was a treaty to try and stop there being a need to fight, which is actually really cool if you think about it ... central to American prosperity and American power after World War II."
    — Heather Cox Richardson [03:59]

2. The Trump Administration's Transactional Approach

• NATO as a "Protection Racket":

  • President Trump has framed NATO as a tit-for-tat deal: “If they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect” [00:59].
  • This reframes NATO as a fee-for-service model instead of a mutual defense agreement.

• Concerns Over "Delinquent" Allies:

  • Trump has repeatedly stated that some allies are “delinquent, as if they owe money," and suggested the U.S. might not defend them if they don’t increase their spending [05:24].

• Memorable Quote:

  • “If you pay you get protection, and if you don't, you are not protected. So it almost becomes like NATO is a fee for a service, like a subscription…”
    — Nikki Akane [05:24]

3. How NATO Funding Actually Works

• Two Main Components:

  • Common Budget: $5–6 billion/year, proportionally funded by all members. Pays for central operations, with bigger members paying more.
    • “And everyone has been paying that bill.” — Nikki Akane [06:10]
  • National Defense Spending: Each member commits a percentage of its GDP to national defense, with the capability to support NATO in crisis [06:24].
    • Analogy: Group project—each student buys their own supplies, which they also share with the group [06:43].

• Not All Spending is Equal:

  • It matters what members buy: money spent on pensions doesn’t help the alliance respond to a crisis [07:02].
  • “It’s not about the money you spend, but what you spend it on and what it allows you to do in a crisis..."
    — Nikki Akane [07:15]

• U.S. Capabilities:

  • The U.S. provides key infrastructure, such as surveillance, refueling aircraft, and nuclear deterrence [07:36].
  • Analogy: U.S. brings the "3D printer" that everyone needs, not just basic supplies [07:49].

4. Shifting Defense Spending Targets & Expectations

• Raising the Bar:

  • Commitment moved from 2% to 5% of GDP under Trump-era pressure [08:04].
  • Historically, most allies spent less than the U.S., but this was once considered an acceptable cost by the U.S. for broader stability [08:31].

• Changing U.S. Stance:

  • For the Trump administration, defense is now a “transaction between countries,” threatening troop withdrawals if allies don't increase spending or align with U.S. interests [08:39].
  • “Pay up, support the US and Iran, or we will withdraw from NATO, or we’ll pull troops from Germany..."
    — Adrienne Ma [08:39]

• White House Statement:

  • Press Secretary Anna Kelly: “Europe benefits tremendously from the tens of thousands of United States troops stationed in Europe. Yet requests to use military bases in order to defend American interests were denied ... the president will never allow the US to be taken advantage of by so-called allies.” [08:57]

5. What’s at Stake? Political and Economic Risks

• Historian's Perspective:

  • Heather Cox Richardson: Trump's approach overlooks decades of proven stability:
    • “What really makes my head explode is that we have literally on the table the proof that ... the system for keeping the United States safe and for keeping the United States economy strong worked.” [09:25]

• European Response:

  • Some European leaders are openly considering forming a new security alliance without the U.S., signaling deep concerns about America’s long-term reliability [09:44].

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “NATO is in fact not a Netflix for transatlantic security. It is an organization based on mutual assistance.” — Waylon Wong [05:51]
• “Our stretchy pants are safe.” — Adrienne Ma [03:26], on the benefits of free trade secured by NATO
• “It's not about the money you spend, but what you spend it on and what it allows you to do in a crisis.” — Nikki Akane [07:15]
• “What really makes my head explode is that we have literally on the table the proof that ... that system … worked.” — Heather Cox Richardson [09:25]

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:11: Opening and framing the episode
• 02:35: Heather Cox Richardson explains NATO’s origins and intentions
• 03:07–03:37: Breakdown of the postwar alliance “three pillars”
• 05:24: Nikki Akane explains transactional perception of NATO funding
• 06:10: Actual structure of NATO’s budget and member payments
• 07:15: Defense spending and what it really buys for the alliance
• 08:04: Rise in spending commitment from 2% to 5% of GDP
• 08:57: White House defends U.S. approach as protecting American interests
• 09:25: Historian explains long-term benefits of the current system
• 09:44: European leaders consider alliances without U.S.

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains NPR’s signature blend of accessible expertise and wry humor, often using analogies (group projects, Netflix subscriptions) to clarify complex geopolitical dynamics. Both hosts and guests remain conversational, occasionally light-hearted (ex. “stretchy pants” and “warning, warning” TV references), but always return focus to the serious implications of changing the U.S.'s role within NATO.

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This summary captures the essential arguments, analogies, and perspectives, highlighting why shifts in NATO funding philosophy could have far-reaching risks for both the U.S. and Europe.

Transcript

[Commercial Announcer]

Npr.

[Adrienne Ma]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Adrienne Ma.

[Waylon Wong]

And I'm Waylon Wong. The Pentagon's decision to pull some American troops out of Germany represents a fresh chill in the relationship between the US and its European allies in NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is one of the pillars of the post World War II global order. And historian Heather Cox Richardson says it has yielded huge benefits for the US and the rest of the world.

[Heather Cox Richardson]

This is a defensive alliance that has this extraordinary payoff look even at hand now at how much the United States of America is spending in Iran alone. That's a billion dollars a day. So if you think about this not as a tit for tat, and you think of it more as a concept of how the world should operate, NATO's really cheap.

[Adrienne Ma]

President Trump, however, does talk about NATO like it's a tit for tat. He was once quoted as saying at a campaign rally, if they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect. And that makes NATO sound more like a protection racket than a strategic alliance. So is that what NATO is?

[Waylon Wong]

Today on the show, we examine Trump's view of NATO, how this long standing alliance is becoming strained, and how the US could pay the costs, both politically and economically for those frayed relationships.

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[Waylon Wong]

Historian Heather Cox Richardson writes a newsletter called Letters from an American. It has around 3 million subscribers. Her focus is explaining how we got to our current moment. And to understand NATO, she says, you have to put yourself in the mindset of people who endured the horrors of two world wars.

[Heather Cox Richardson]

They wanted to make sure it never happened again and they were willing to put everything on the line to make sure it never happened. Again, to create a safe world for their children and grandchildren and other people's children and grandchildren. So what they do is they think, how are we going to do this?

[Adrienne Ma]

How leaders of the US and its allies did this was through three basic pillars. Number one, free trade enabled by freedom of the seas. That means people and goods can flow safely between countries.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, we don't have to worry about our imported athleisure or smartphones getting plunged under netsy.

[Adrienne Ma]

Our stretchy pants are safe.

[Waylon Wong]

Important. The second pillar is international cooperation through exchanging culture and values.

[Adrienne Ma]

And the third is collective security.

[Waylon Wong]

These World War II era agreements produced organizations like the World Health Organization and the International Monetary Fund. NATO was also born during this time. And the core of NATO is its famous article 5, that an attack on one member is an attack on all of them. It's only been invoked once when NATO allies rally to support the US after 9 11.

[Heather Cox Richardson]

This was a treaty to try and stop there being a need to fight, which is actually really cool if you think about it. It's important to emphasize it doesn't mean there's never war. And it doesn't mean people all get along either. It means they don't go to war in such a way that they create a world war that was central to American prosperity and American power after World War II and crucial to it.

[Adrienne Ma]

President Trump, however, has characterized NATO as a system where European countries are shirking their responsibilities. And this is a worrying signal for Nikki Akane. She's a fellow at the NATO Defense College, which is NATO's research arm. Although Nikki says she doesn't speak on behalf of the alliance.

[Commercial Announcer]

I'm a specialist on warnings when they fail, when they work. And that's obviously relevant for institutions like NATO.

[Waylon Wong]

Wow, a specialist on warnings. Are you in a constant state of alert then?

[Commercial Announcer]

It's true that if you write about warnings that go unheeded, you tend to see them everywhere.

[Adrienne Ma]

She sounds so calm and collected. I don't know how she does it.

[Waylon Wong]

She's a pro. This is why people with my disposition are not experts in warnings.

[Adrienne Ma]

No, it'd just be walking around going, warning, warning, like that old TV show that I've only seen clips of. The warning signs for the US NATO relationship have been pretty clear. Trump has complained about NATO since his first term.

[Commercial Announcer]

President Trump has sometimes spoken about certain allies as being delinquent, as if they owe money. And he suggested that if countries, NATO countries don't spend enough on their defense, the US Might not defend them. And the logic is then becoming, if you pay you get protection, and if you don't, you are not protected. So it almost becomes like NATO is a fee for a service, like a subscription, where if you pay, you get the service, and if you don't, you do not.

[Waylon Wong]

Naito is in fact not a Netflix for transatlantic security. It is an organization based on mutual assistance. And there are two main components of NATO's funding. The first is the organization's common budget. It's five to six billion dollars a year, and each member pays into that pot in proportion to their size.

[Commercial Announcer]

That pays for things like NATO headquarters, the communication systems, the real practical things NATO needs to run as an organization. Bigger countries pay more and smaller ones pay less. And everyone has been paying that bill.

[Adrienne Ma]

The second aspect of NATO funding is national defense spending. This is what Trump has zeroed in on. Members commit to spending a percentage of their gross domestic product on their own defense. So this is money that countries spend on themselves with the understanding that these resources can be used for the good of the whole alliance.

[Waylon Wong]

So let's say NATO is a group project. In school, each student spends money on supplies that they need for themselves, but that they that can also share with the whole group. So one kid buys scissors, another kid buys markers, but one kid buys glue sticks and glitter and googly eyes, right?

[Adrienne Ma]

And Nikki says there's another thing. It matters what that percentage of GDP gets spent on. If that money goes towards, say, paying military pensions, then it doesn't really help NATO if there's an attack on one of its members.

[Commercial Announcer]

It's not about the money you spend, but what you spend it on and what it allows you to do in a crisis. And this is where there's some truth to the recent statements from the White House. Because even if European countries are increasing their defense spending, it's still the US that provides a large share of those high end capabilities.

[Waylon Wong]

Nikki says the US has invested in crucial infrastructure that benefits other NATO members. These are capabilities like high end surveillance systems, aircraft that can refuel midair, and nuclear deterrence.

[Adrienne Ma]

And so to go back to our group project analogy, it would be like if one student shows up with a poster board, but the project doesn't need poster board. Meanwhile, another student buys a 3D printer. And that's what the group actually needs to complete the project.

[Waylon Wong]

The NATO defense spending commitment used to be 2% of GDP. It was upped to 5% last year amid intense pressure from Trump. And Nikki says it's this pledge that gets entangled in controversy. One reason is that until recently, the US Was one of the only nations, NATO members that actually hit that original 2% benchmark. In fact, historically, if you added up what other allies spent on defense, it was less than half of what the US Spent.

[Adrienne Ma]

Nikki says there was a time when the US didn't mind this imbalance in spending. It believed it was in its own best interest to protect its European allies.

[Waylon Wong]

That thinking has changed. Nikki says the Trump administration sees security as less of a group project and more of a transaction between countries. Pay up, support the US And Iran or we will withdraw from NATO or we'll pull troops from Germany. Trump has threatened to do the same in Spain and Italy.

[Adrienne Ma]

We reached out to the White House and Press Secretary Anna Kelly said, quote, europe benefits tremendously from the tens of thousands of United States troops stationed in Europe. Yet requests to use military bases in order to defend American interests were denied, unquote. She added that the president will never allow the US to be taken advantage of by so called allies.

[Waylon Wong]

Historian Heather Cox Richardson says Trump's stance isn't good for the US Politically or economically.

[Heather Cox Richardson]

What really makes my head explode is that we have literally on the table the proof that From World War II to the Ascension of Donald Trump, the system for keeping the United States safe and for keeping the United States economy strong worked.

[Adrienne Ma]

European allies are not waiting for Trump to change his mind. Some European leaders, including a former secretary general of NATO, are already talking about creating another security alliance without the US

[Waylon Wong]

this episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Jimmy Keeley. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Cagan Cannon is our show's editor and the indicator is a production of npr.

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